The QIPCO Guineas Festival 2021

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The 2021 Qipco Guinea’s Festival at Newmarket is a weekend of world class turf flat racing over two days, featuring the first two Classic races of the new turf flat season, the 1000 and 2000 Guineas, which form part of the British Champion Series.

First run in 1809 the 2000 Guineas, a race ran for 3 year old colts and fillies and named after the amount of Prize Money on offer, was followed 5 years later, in 1814, by the addition of the 1000 Guineas, a race solely for 3 year old fillies.

Both races are run on the Newmarket Rowley Mile course on consecutive days.

The 2000 Guineas on day 1 is a test of speed for the thoroughbred runners and the prize money on offer for the winner this year amounts to a hefty £212,663, with the race forming the first part of the English Triple Crown which also includes the Epsom Derby and the St Leger.

The English Triple Crown has been won by 15 horses over its years (including 3 winners of substitute races at Newmarket during World War I). The most recent and most popular is Nijinsky back in 1970 ridden by the famous Lester Piggott.

Steve Mellish explains in the video below why achieving the Triple Crown is such a difficult task.

Click to Play the Video

The 1000 Guineas for the Fillies returns a winner’s prize equal to that of the Colts and Fillies 2000 Guineas race and forms the first of the three races for the fillies Triple Crown which includes the Oaks and the St Leger.

The Card Day 1 of the Festival

1.15pm: The Read Ryan Moore on Betting Betfair Handicap Stakes (Class 2)

1.50pm: The “My Oddsboost” On Betfair Suffolk Stakes (Class 2)

2.25pm: The Betfair Place House Stakes (Class 1 - Group 3)

3.00pm: The Betfair Exchange Jockey Club Stakes (Class 1- Group 2)

3.40pm: The QIPCO 2000 Guineas Stakes (Class 1)

4.15pm: The Betfair Exchange Handicap Stakes (Class 2)

4.50pm: The Betfair Newmarket Stakes (Class 1 - Listed)

5.25pm: The Betfair Weighed-In Podcast Handicap Stakes (Class 2)

Day 2 of the Festival

1.15pm: The Better Odds On Betfair Exchange Handicap Stakes (Class 3)

1.50pm: The Back and Lay on Betfair Exchange Handicap Stakes (Class 2)

2.25pm: The Betfair Pretty Polly Stakes (Class 1-Listed)

3.00pm: The Betfair Dahlia Stakes (Class 1 – Group 2)

3.40pm: The QIPCO 1000 Guineas Stakes (Class 1 – Group 1)

4.15pm: The Betfair British EBF Maiden Stakes (Class 3)

4.50pm: The Betfair Weighed In Podcast Handicap Stakes (Class 3)

5.20pm: The Betfair Racing Only Bettor Podcast “Confined” Handicap Stakes (Class 4)

Carl’s Initial Thoughts on the Key Races

Here are Carl’s thoughts on a few of the key races over the two days:-

May 1st

2.25 Betfair Palace House Stakes

The 4 year olds look the one to be with in this Grade 3.

LIBERTY BEACH seems pretty versatile with regards to ground so will not be bothered if there is some rain around. She ran well last season without really settling that well and if she is more relaxed this season then she will be a big player for Group races this season.

LAZULI does seem reliant on quick ground and has yet to make a serious impact at Group level. But there is plenty of scope for improvement and he could still be improving.

KEEP BUSY is another yet to reach her peak and she seemed to be improving towards the back end of last season (the 2nd to Glass Slippers at the Curragh looking top form) and she is a serious player in my view.

DUBAI STATION has yet to full fill his potential and for a stable that gets the best out of their sprinters could be one to keep an eye on at a big price

3.00 Betfair Exchange Jockey Club Stakes

PYLEDRIVER is the current favourite for this but is one I would be taking on. He started to look a bit wayward last season and while he has undoubted ability, he can be liable to throw in a moody display.

AL ZARAQAAN looked one to follow for the season when bolting up at Kempton in March and the best is certainly yet to be seen.

SIR RON PRIESTLY is very versatile and looks a tough opponent for all the others. There was plenty to like about the way he galloped his rivals into submission at Nottingham.

PABLO ESCOBARR might be a player at bigger odds given he has some solid form in handicaps, but I think this may rest between the potential of AL ZARAQAAN and the solid profile of SIR RON PRIESTLY.

3.40 Qipco 2000 Guineas

I have covered this contest in my video presentation, so please watch that on YouTube if you can via this link.

May 2nd

3.00 Betfair Dahlia Stakes

The current betting has a short priced favourite in QUEENS POWER I am not sure she warrants that on form and has been turned over a few times at short prices.

MAAMORA rounded off last season with a victory over the reliable and tough Bilesdon Brook and outran her odds a couple of times in Dubai as well, so is a big player. LAVENDER’S BLUE was outclassed in the Group races she ran in last season and was well held by MAAMORA when they met at Sandown, returned to action with a good win last time out, but that does not look strong form.

POSTED was another behind that rival MAAMORA that day at Sandown, but she was fairly motoring at the end and this sort of trip could be ideal.

CHAMADE is a stronger stayer than most of these have shown so far and could just have them on the stretch if she can get a soft lead.

3.40 Qipco 1000 Guineas

I have again covered this race on my Video on YouTube, so please take a look here

Additional Pointers for the Non-ITV Races

Of course, Carl will be providing selections for every race being shown live on ITV but there are other races that are not shown that may provide us with some decent punting opportunities.

On the first day of the Guineas meeting the opening race (1.15pm) and the final three (4.15pm, 4.50pm and 5.25pm) are not being shown on terrestrial TV.

Three of these are Class 2 handicaps and over the last decade one trainer has a cracking record in these race types especially at the Guineas meeting.

Charlie Appleby (Class 2 handicaps)

As a result of the Covid-19 situation last year’s Guineas took place during June and given the circumstance it may pay to play less attention to that Festival and focus on the ones that ran in May as would normally be the case.

Since 2014 Appleby has saddled 16 runners in Class 2 handicaps at the Guineas meeting and 6 have won with another five placing. If we had simply placed 1pt in both the Win and Place markets these race types would have yielded a profit of +66% after comms (5%).

At the time of writing the yard have two entries that if they run are worthy of closer inspection.

Creative Force (1.15pm) – returned to action on April15th and won a similar type of race as this one over the course and distance. He has been raised 8lb as a result but given it was his first run since being gelded there may be more improvement to come.

Magical Land (5.25pm) – is a 3yo son of Frankel and makes his handicap debut having been runners-up in 3 maiden runs to date and now steps up to a mile for the first time.

Lay the Mark Johnston runners in handicaps?

For those of you interested in potentially laying horses on the exchange’s trainer Mark Johnston has won a total of three handicap races at the Guineas Festival from 51 such runners and only a further 4 even placed.

As is the normal modus operandi the yard have numerous entries in the various handicaps so at this stage we suggest waiting until the declarations have firmed up before delving a little deeper in search of lay material.

Moving on to the second day at Newmarket which features the fillies Classic there are again 4 races not being covered by ITV. These are the 1.15pm, 4.15pm, 4.50pm and 5.20pm.

John Gosden (3yo handicaps)

Over the preceding Guineas Festivals, the yard has been quite frugal with their 3yo runners in handicap races with only 4 of them going to post. However two of them won and one finished second with only Ghostwriting letting the side down in 2012 but having been sent off at 20/1 possibly not much was expected anyway.

Looking at the current entries the Gosden’s (son and father team) have Highland Rocker (1.15pm) and Otyrar/Defined (4.50pm) down to run in the 3yo handicaps scheduled for Sunday.

Other pointers

The draw can play a massive role sometimes at this track and high numbers are the ones to concentrate on in most cases. Watch the first few races to see if the bias is in play

The Aiden O’Brien camp do seem to be a bit hit and miss the last few weeks and while they will have plenty of runners and short priced ones too , it may pay to be a bit cautious with them.