Online Appendix Political Booms, Financial Crises
ONLINE APPENDIX POLITICAL BOOMS, FINANCIAL CRISES HELIOS HERRERA, GUILLERMO ORDOÑEZ AND CHRISTOPH TREBESCH ABSTRACT. In this Online Appendix we (A) Describe in detail the sample and the variables used in the main text. (B) Show robustness to using different samples, to explaining sudden stops and to including several additional economic, financial and political controls. (C) Show out-of-sample forecasting results. (D) Describe the new dataset on government approval based on polling results. (E) Show that the dynamics of the ICRG stability index captures well the dynamics of pop- ularity by comparing it with the new dataset on government approval. We present more detailed evidence of the evolution of popularity and government changes around specific events of financial crises. (F) Present the proofs of Propositions. (G) Provide further empirical support for the reputation mechanism we propose in the manu- script, in particular through the regulatory behavior of policymakers. (H) Provide a numerical simulation of the reputational mechanism dynamics. 1 APPENDIX A. SUMMARY OF SAMPLE AND VARIABLES Sample of Countries Sample of Advanced Economies (22): Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States. Sample of Emerging Economies (40): Algeria, Argentina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Chile, China, Colom- bia, Costa Rica, Côte d’Ivoire, Czech Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, Estonia, Hong Kong, Hun-
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