Greenhouse Gas Issues Within Australia’s Electricity Industry by: Richard Cumpston & Andrew Burge ã 2003 The Institute of Actuaries of Australia This paper has been prepared for issue to, and discussion by, Members of the Institute of Actuaries of Australia. The Council wishes it to be understood that opinions put forward herein are not necessarily those of the Institute and the Council is not responsible for those opinions. Level 7 Challis House 4 Martin Place SYDNEY NSW 2000 Tel: (02) 9233 3466 Fax: (02) 9233 3446 Email:
[email protected] Web site: www.actuaries.asn.au Greenhouse Gas Issues within Australia's Electricity Industry Richard Cumpston, MEngSci, MAdmin, FIA, FIAA & Andrew Burge, BSc(Hons),FIAA Richard Cumpston is a director of Cumpston Sarjeant Truslove Pty Ltd, consulting actuaries, Melbourne, and Andrew Burge is a senior market analyst at Tarong Energy Corporation, Brisbane. The Commonwealth government is developing a strategic plan for Australia's long term energy policy. This paper was written as background for an IAA submission to the government. It discusses: · How Australia’s demand for electricity is met now (83% from coal) · Capital and running costs of power generation · Greenhouse gas emission intensities · Current emission levels (96% from coal) · Commonwealth and state emission abatement measures · Expected increases in electricity demand (75% from 2000 to 2020) · Projected emission increases if increases are met by black coal (65% to 2020) · Emission increases using best current technology (28% to 2020) · The emissions trading regime recommended by the recent COAG review of the national energy market. Index 1. SUMMARY .............................................................................................................1 2.