G-COE GLOPE II Working Paper Series The Success and Failure of Ethnic Parties in New Democracies: Cross-National and Inter-temporal Analysis on Post-communist Europe. Ryo NAKAI Working Paper No.27 If you have any comment or question on the working paper series, please contact each author. When making a copy or reproduction of the content, please contact us in advance to request permission. The source should explicitly be credited. GLOPE Ⅱ Web Site: http://globalcoe-glope2.jp/ The Success and Failure of Ethnic Parties in New Democracies: 1 Cross-National and Inter-temporal Analysis on Post-communist Europe Ryo NAKAI Research Associate & Ph.D. Candidate Student, School of Political Science and Economics 2
[email protected] Abstract Why do ethnic minority parties succeed or fail? In order to solve this puzzle, this article explores cross-national and inter-temporal differences in post-communist new democracies using statistical analysis and small-N case studies, and argues that policy factors and the rationality of ethnic minorities determine the success and failure of ethnic parties and account for the variance in their standings. As some studies have pointed out, ethnic minorities’ voting behaviour should be rational and strategic. This article represents a basic spatial model and argues that ethnic minorities react to other parties’ policy changes and to the capability of other parties to win seats. Statistical analysis verifies this hypothesis. In addition, I discuss the Baltic States–Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania--as case studies. Although these three countries share a similar history, experience with minority issues and a common institutional design, their party systems indicate significant differences.