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China's Way: the New Silk Road

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China's Way: the New Silk Road 14 2014 www.silkroadproject.org China’s way: the new Silk Road by Camille Brugier The manner in which Russia deals with its neigh- ambitious. But what lies behind China’s desire bouring states is not a source of concern for the to recreate the ancient Silk Road? Is it simply a European Union only. Further east, China is move to counter Russian influence or does China closely watching Russia’s geopolitical moves, in also have real and tangible interests to defend in particular Moscow’s actions in Ukraine and its Central Asia? attempts to create a Eurasian Union. Where from and where to The fear that Moscow may try to keep Beijing away from what it considers its special ‘zone of influ- A recent feature published by the state-owned ence’ is not new: after rejecting the Chinese initi- news agency Xinhua has offered the clearest look ative to create a free trade zone among the mem- so far at China’s vision of the new Silk Road. Just bers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization like the ancient one, it is to consist of both a land (namely China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and a maritime route. and Tajikistan), Russia created its own Eurasian Custom Union with Kazakhstan and Belarus – a Accordingly, the former will begin in Xi’an, in move which is perceived in Beijing to have been central China, before stretching to the border undertaken to exclude China. with Kazakhstan. The Silk Road then heads southwest to Iran before passing through Iraq, Coinciding with President Xi Jinping’s Central Syria and Turkey. The new Silk Road then crosses Asian tour in the autumn of 2013, China has in the Bosphorus and heads through Europe, tra- the meantime launched the ‘Silk Road Economic versing Bulgaria, Romania, the Czech Republic, Belt’ project in an attempt to create a vast loop Germany and Rotterdam in the Netherlands – which spans three continents. An allusion to the from which the path runs south to Venice where ancient trade routes linking China to the Middle it converges with the planned maritime route. East and Europe that were established during the Han dynasty (approximately 200 BC to 200 The latter, in turn, begins in Quanzhou (Fujian) AD) and that long allowed merchants, pilgrims, and hits other southern Chinese ports before mercenaries, technologies and even germs to heading to the Malacca Strait. From Kuala circulate between East and West, the project is Lumpur, the maritime Silk Road heads to European Union Institute for Security Studies May 2014 1 sources for approximately half of its domestic consumption today. In order to meet its energy needs, Beijing imports the energy it lacks from three major sources: the Middle East, Africa and Russia. Formatted: Font: (Default) +Headings CS (Times New Roman), Complex Script Font: +Headings CS (Times New Evolution of Chinese energy imports from Russia since 2000 Roman) Formatted: Font: (Default) +Headings 30 CS (Times New Roman), Complex Script Font: +Headings CS (Times New 25 Roman) 20 Chinese 15 energy Value inbillion $ 10 imports from Russia 5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: United Nation COMtrade database Formatted: Default Paragraph Font, Font: (Default) +Headings CS (Times Kolkata, then crosses the rest of the Indian unknowns hanging over the region as a result of New Roman), 11 pt, Complex Script OceanIn the to early Nairobi 2000s, and, fromChina there, increased around theits energypost-2014 imports security from concerns. Russia thirty-fold (see table on Font: +Headings CS (Times New Horn of Africa and into the Mediterranean – Roman), 11 pt page 2)within an a attemptfinal stop to inlimit Greece its dependencybefore reaching on the Middle East and Africa. This was done for two reasons:Italy. first, the transport of energy stemming fromEasing these turmoil two inregions Xinjiangrelied on maritime routes Formatted: Font: (Default) +Headings CS (Times New Roman), Complex Script which wereChina envisionssometimes the subjectcreation ofto infrastructural pirate attacks orIt isadministrative widely accepted delaysthat China’s in theforeign delivery poli- of the Font: +Headings CS (Times New networks (especially railway and ports) as well cy since Mao Zedong’s death has mainly been Roman) supplies;as s‘capitalecond, convergence the Middle and East currency and Africa integra suffer- fromdriven chronic by domestic political factors. instability The government’s which can cause shortagestion’ in in p rovisionthe regionsor through outright which cessation the Silk Roadof supply main. priority has been to ensure economic de- Formatted: Font: (Default) +Headings runs (the renminbi is ever more widely used velopment and political stability, and its poli- CS (Times New Roman), Complex Script in Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Vietnam cy in Central Asia is no exception to this rule. Font: +Headings CS (Times New andToday, Thailand). however, China China has already is increasingly made major waryKazakhstan, of further Kyrgyzstan increasing and its Tajikistan energy alldependence bor- on investments in what it deems to be ‘major ports’ der the (often unstable) autonomous Chinese Roman) Russia andleading has tostarted, the European just like market. the EU,One suchto look ex- for alteprovincernative of Xinjiang: sources ranked of suppl 25thy. out Since of China’s Central Asian Formatted: Font: (Default) +Headings states areample rich is in the energy 10 billion resources, dollar deep-water China is port now increasing29 provinces its inimports terms of from wealth these by the countries, Chinese notably CS (Times New Roman), Complex Script in Crimea, which aimed to create a transit point statistical office (2012), it is among China’s least Font: +Headings CS (Times New Kazakhstanfor Chinese and Turkmenistan. goods coming to Europe that cir- developed areas. cumvents Russia. Needless to say, since the Roman) Russian annexation of Crimea, this project has In addition, the majority of the province’s popu- Formatted: Font: (Default) +Headings been stalled by the Russian authorities, pur- lation are Muslim Uighurs, a minority which has CS (Times New Roman), Complex Script portedly for ‘environmental reasons’. long demanded territorial independence. In the Font: +Headings CS (Times New last few years, China has witnessed an increase But it is still15 unclear whether the project will be in terrorist attacks which the Chinese govern- Roman) implemented through a string of bilateral agree- ment attribute to the minority, including a brutal 13 Formatted: Font: (Default) +Headings ments with individual countries or between assult on a train station in Kunming last March CS (Times New Roman), Complex Script China and regional bodies such as ASEAN or which left 29 dead and over 130 wounded. the EU. And11 equally unclear is its links with Font: +Headings CS (Times New Roman) other regional9 projects such as Russia’s Eurasian In order to preserve its otherterritorial integrity, the Union or the US’s own ‘New Silk Road’ initiative, Chinese government has made combating what Formatted: Font: (Default) +Headings launched last7 year and centred on the construc- it calls the ‘three evils’ (religious extremism, sep- CS (Times New Roman), Complex Script tion of the nearly $1 billion Central Asia South aratism and terrorism) a priority in the region. Asia electrical5 transmission line (CASA-1000). In order to achieve its aimsImports and reduce of energy local dis- Font: +Headings CS (Times New This project, which aims to bring hydroelec- content, Beijing has replaced its policy of ‘stabil- Roman) 3 products tricity produced in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to ity above all else’ – applied in the province until Formatted: Font: (Default) +Headings electricity-starved Afghanistan and Pakistan, is 2010 – with a strategy of regional economic de- Value US(Billion dollars) 1 CS (Times New Roman), Complex Script currently on hold due to a number of political velopment. -1 Font: +Headings CS (Times New Roman) Formatted: Font: (Default) +Headings European Union Institute for Security Studies May 2014 2 CS (Times New Roman), Complex Script Tajikistan Kyrgystan Uzbekistan Kazakhstan Font: +Headings CS (Times New Turkmenistan Roman) sources for approximately half of its domestic consumption today. 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