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Investigating Glacial Anomalies of Karakorum As an Evidence of Climate Change: a Case Study of Batura Glacier, Paksitan

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Investigating Glacial Anomalies of Karakorum As an Evidence of Climate Change: a Case Study of Batura Glacier, Paksitan INVESTIGATING GLACIAL ANOMALIES OF KARAKORUM AS AN EVIDENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE: A CASE STUDY OF BATURA GLACIER, PAKSITAN. By: Tehmina Aziz Reg. 16F-US-ETH-4650 Session: 2016-18 A Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the degree of M.Phil in Geography Department of Earth Sciences, University of Sargodha, Sargodha, Pakistan i DECLARATION LETTER I hereby submit that the research work reported in this thesis titled “Investigating Glacial Anomalies of Karakorum as an evidence of Climate Change: A Case Study of Batura Glacier, Pakistan”. By me and nothing is copied/ stolen/ Plagiarized from any source. Name: Tehmina Aziz Session: 2016 - 2018 Program: M.Phil. in Geography ii CERTIFICATE OF ORIGINALITY OF RESEARCH WORK I hereby certify that the research work reported in this thesis titled “Investigating glacial anomalies of Karakorum as an evidence of climate change; A case study of Batura Glacier, Pakistan.” ” by Tehmina Aziz Session 2016 - 2018 has been carried under my supervision in partial fulfillment of requirement for the award of degree of M.Phil. in the subject of Geography and is hereby approved for submission it is further certified that the research work carried out by the scholar is original and nothing is plagiarized in it. SUPERVISOR Ms. Asma Shaheen Hashmi Assistant Professor Department of Earth Sciences University of Sargodha. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENT I am very grateful to Allah Almighty Who is the master of the Day of Judgment and the inventor of all mankind. There are no suitable words for His enormous sanctifications because He bestowed me the courage and boldness to complete my thesis work. I am also appreciative to my affectionate, caring and kind Parents and Husband to provide me full sustenance during my research work through all possible resources with great persistent. I owe the obligations of appreciation to Department of The Earth Sciences, which provided me this chance to complete my research in the emerging, evolving and developing field. I am grateful to the research supervisor, Asma Shaheen Hashmi for her great efforts, direction, appreciated recommendations and kind supervision made this possible. I am thankful to the Chairman of Earth Sciences Dr. Omer Riaz who provided me the chances to acquire imaginative skills and offering abilities for well preparation for my research. I would also like to thank the organizations such as PMD, Meteorological Department of Lahore for providing me the datasets of their meteorological stations. I am highly indebted to a web-source i.e www.meteoblue.com who works in cooperation with the University of Basel, Switzerland. They generate simulation- based data on NOAA/NCEP models. The meteoblue provided me statistical datasets of four meteorological stations free of cost. I highly appreciate their special support for research purpose. iv DEDICATIONS To Allah Almighty The Most Gracious and kind, To Prophet Hazrat Muhammad (PBUH) v Acronyms Notation Representation DIP Digital Image processing DEM Digital Elevation Model ETM Enhanced Thematic Mapper GIS Multispectral Scanning Band MSS Geographical Information system NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NDBI Normalized Difference Built -up NIR Near Infrared Rays PMD Pakistan Meteorological Department PCA Principal Component Analysis RS Remote Sensing SUPARCO Space and Upper Atmospheric Research Commission VIS Visible Infrared Band VPD Vapor pressure deficit WAPDA Water and Power Development Authority HKH Hindukush, Karakorum, Himalaya IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change ENSO El Nino or Southern Oscillation GHG Green House Gas vi CONTENTS Declaration Latter ii Certificates of Originality of Research Work iii Acknowledgement iv Dedication v Acronyms vi Contents vii List of Tables xii List of Figures xiii Abstract xvi CHAPTER: 1 INTERODUCTION 1 1. Introduction 1 1.1 Rational of the Study 1 1.2 Climate Change 2 1.3 Climate Variability in the World 2 1.4 General Effects of Climate 3 1.5 Effects of Regional Climate Variability 4 1.6 Climate variability in Pakistan 5 1.7 Northern Pakistan in Prospects of Climate Change 6 1.8 Glaciers of Pakistan 7 1.9 Glacial Anomalies in Northern Areas of Pakistan 7 1.10 Factors Affecting to Control Glacial Anomalies 8 vii 1.11 Climate Variability and Glacial Anomalies 8 1.12 Problem Statement 9 1.13 Study Area 9 1.14 Objectives 10 1.15 Research Questions: 11 1.16 Significance of the Research 11 CHAPTER: 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 12 2.1 Introduction 12 2.2 Monitoring Karakoram Anomaly 12 2.3 Batura Glacier and its anomalies 14 2.4 Factors effecting Batura Glacier 15 2.5 Climate change and glacial anomalies 17 2.6 Climate change and its impact on glacial melting 19 2.7 Glacier assessment by Remote Sensing methods 21 2.8 Glaciers measurement 22 2.9 Glacier retreat and melting measurement 24 2.10 Glacier mass balance 26 CHAPTER: 3 MATERIAL AND METHODS 28 3.1 Methodology 28 3.1.1 Meteorological data 28 3.1.2 Rainfall /Snowfall Data 29 3.1.3 Temperature Data 29 3.2 Satellite Data 30 3.2.1 Satellite Images 30 3.2.2 Digital Elevation model 30 viii 3.2.3 Land use land cover data 30 3.3 Spatial analysis and methods 31 3.3.1 Rainfall Anomaly Analysis 31 3.3.2 Temperature Anomaly Analysis 31 3.3.3 Normalize Difference Vegetation Index 32 3.3.4 Snow cover index 33 3.3.5 Glacier Index 3.3.6 Slope elevation and aspect analysis of glacier by DEM 34 3.3.7 Glacier anomalies analysis 34 3.4 Precipitation Anomalies Index 34 3.4.1 Procedure of Calculation Anomalies: 35 3.4.2 Correlation Analysis 36 3.5 Regression Analysis 37 3.6 Meteorological Observation Over Batura (Lat,Long) 37 3.6.1 Introduction to the Meteoblue data gathering 37 3.6.2 Introduction to the website 37 3.6.3 Types of Data Sets 38 3.6.4 Formats of data 38 3.6.5 Data Geration 38 3.6.6 Simulation data 38 3.6.7 Limitations of Simulation data 39 3.6.8 Verification 39 3.6.9 Formats of Data 39 3.6.10 Historical Data 39 3.6.11 Meteograph 40 3.6.12 Meteoblue Maps 40 CHAPTER: 4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 41 4.1 Vector Data Set Analysis 42 4.4.1 Total Precipitation of Bunji 42 4.1.2 Total precipitation of Astor ix 43 4.1.3 Total precipitation of Gupis 44 4.1.4 Total precipitation in Gilgit 45 4.1.5 Total precipitation of Skardu 45 4.2 Average monthly precipitation in the surrounding of Batura 46 4.2.1 Astor average monthly Precipitation 46 4.2.2 Bunji average monthly precipitation 48 x 4.2.3 Gilgit average monthly rainfall 49 4.2.4 Gupis average monthly precipitation 50 4.2.5 Skardu average monthly rainfall 51 4.3.1 Vector data analysis of Temperature Precipitation and Snow of Batura 52 4.3.2 Batura Monthly Temperature in °C since 1985 to 2018 53 4.3.3 Batura total Precipitation 55 4.3.4 Batura Monthly precipitation 52 4.4.5 Batura total Snowfall 56 4.4.6 Batura monthly snowfall in cm during 1985 to 2018 57 4.4.8 The daily mean temperature of the Batura glacier in 1985 to 2018 60 4.4.9 Batura daily total precipitation during 1985 to 2018 60 4.4.10 Batura total daily rainfall since 1985 to 2018 62 4.4.11 Relationship between Temperature and Area under snow 63 4.4.12 Relationship between Area under Snow and amount under snow 64 4.5 Raster Analysis 65 4.5.1Batura Glacier Inventory (True Color Imagery) 65 4.5.2. Batura Glacier 66 4.5.3 Snow cover index 67 4.4 Land cover and land use classification in 1988, 2000,2008, and 2016 68 4.5 Vegetation cover of Batura during 1988 to 2016 69 4.5.1 Batura Land cover 71 4.6 Precipitation Anomalies Index of Batura Glacier 71 4.6.1Annual Precipitation anomalies of Batura Glacier 71 4.6.2 Seasonal Precipitation Anomalies of Batura Glacier 72 4.6.3Monthly Precipitation Anomalies of Batura Glacier 74 4.7 Temperature Anomalies of Batura 76 x 4.8 Monthly Anomalies of Temperature in Batura 77 4.9 Seasonal Distribution of Precipitation from 1989 to 2018 78 4.9.1 Batura Precipitation in Monsoon season 78 4.9.2 Batura Precipitation in Western Disturbance season 79 4.9.3 Batura Precipitation in Thunderstorm season 80 4.8 Topographic Examination 81 4.8.1 Contouring 81 4.8.2 Digital Elevation Model (DEM) 82 4.8.3 Watershed 84 4.9 Results 84 CHAPTER: 05 SUMMERY, CONCLUSION AND 88 RECOMMENDATIONS 5.1 Summary 88 5.2 Conclusion 92 5.3 Recommendations 94 6. REFERENCES 97 xi List of Tables Table Title Page Table 3.3: Satellite Landsat 33 xii List of Figures Figure Title Page Figure 1.1: Map of study area 10 Figure 4.1: Flow chart of the analysis 41 Figure 4.2 Graphical representation of total received precipitation in surrounding station of Batura (Bunji) 42 Figure 4.3 Graphical representation of total received precipitation in surrounding station of Batura (Astor) 43 Figure 4.4: Graphical representation of total received precipitation in surrounding station of Batura (Gupis) 44 Figure 4.5: Graphical representation of total received precipitation in surrounding station of Batura (Gilgit) 45 Figure 4.6: Graphical representation of total received precipitation in 46 surrounding station of Batura (Skardu) Data Source: Pakistan Meteorological Department(PMD) Figure4.7: Graphical representation of monthly precipitation of 47 Astor station Figure 4.8: Graphical representation of monthly precipitation of 48 Batura station Figure 4.9: Graphical representation of monthly precipitation of 49 Gilgit station Figure 4.10: Graphical representation of monthly precipitation of 50 Gupis station Figure 4.11 Graphical representation of monthly precipitation of 51 Skardu station Figure 4.12 Graphical representation of monthly Temperature of 52 Batura station xiii Figure 4.13 Graphical representation of monthly temperature
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