Belfercenter.Org Holdren, Colleagues Call for Immediate Action on Climate Disruptions —By Beth Maclin, Communications Intern a L

How Can We Stop Severe Climate Disruption?

Summer 2007 www.belfercenter.org Holdren, Colleagues Call for Immediate Action on Climate Disruptions —by Beth Maclin, Communications Intern A L

The report said the largest causes of climate L limate change is real, humans are E L

change are the combustion of fossil fuels and O

the largest cause of it, it’s already C

“C . deforestation, both of which emit large quan- J doing harm, it’s accelerating, and we need to L E

tities of heat-trapping carbon dioxide. The A do something serious about it, starting now,” H C concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has I John Holdren told United Nations Secretary M General Ban Ki-moon and the UN Commis- increased nearly 40 percent since the start of sion on Sustainable Development in February. the Industrial Revolution, the authors said. “If the build-up of greenhouse gases pushes the Resulting changes in climate are already global average surface temperature past 2–2.5 changing ecosystems around the globe, degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level, increasing the frequency and intensity of heat the danger of intolerable and unmanageable waves, droughts, and wildfires, and raising sea impacts of climate change on human well- level. Without intensified efforts both to being becomes very high.” reduce the pace and magnitude of climate change and to reduce the damages from the degree of change that cannot be avoided, The earth’s inhabitants harm far more severe than what has been have less than a decade to experienced so far is in store, Holdren said. The earth’s inhabitants have less than a slow and then begin to decade to slow and then begin to reverse cli- reverse climate change. mate change, Holdren believes. Critical steps, —John Holdren he says, include changing the world’s energy Call to Action: John Holdren delivers his system to emit less carbon dioxide and provid- presidential address at the annual AAAS meeting. ing incentives against deforestation. Scientists Holdren called on all scientists to “tithe” 10 Holdren, director of the Belfer Center’s and technologists have major roles to play in percent of their time to climate issues. Science, Technology, and Public Policy pro- bringing this about, Holdren said in his presi- gram, was one of 18 leading scientists from 11 dential address to the annual meeting of the disruption and advises policymakers in those countries who produced the report, “Con- American Association for the Advancement of areas. Stavins and the Harvard-wide Environ- fronting Climate Change: Avoiding the Science (AAAS). His call on scientists world- mental Economics Program focus on the role Unmanageable and Managing the Unavoid- wide to “tithe” 10 percent of their time and of economic instruments in addressing climate able,” at the request of the United Nations. effort to “working to increase the benefits of change and other environmental problems.

R science and technology for the human condi- Holdren, Henry Lee, Kelly Sims Gallagher, E T

N tion” drew a standing ovation. and their team in the Energy Technology E C “How much are we [the U.S.] investing in Innovation Project concentrate on the role of R E F

L the new energy technologies that could help us advanced technologies in addressing the E B with this mitigation challenge? The answer is, climate-change and oil-dependence problems not much,” said Holdren at a Belfer Center climate change discussion in February with continued on page 7 ) 6

Robert Stavins, director of Harvard’s Environ- 0 0 2 (

mental Economics Program and member of . L the Belfer Center Board of Directors. A T Stavins noted that special attention must E N E S

be paid to upcoming Congressional policies on N A

climate change. “Fear of foreign oil depen- H . dency and love of domestically produced corn- J based ethanol . . . could lead to some terrible policies coming out of both the administration and the Congress,” he said. He recommends creation of a post-Kyoto international climate agreement that is “scientifically sound, eco- nomically rational, and politically pragmatic.” Hot Times: 2005 was the hottest year on record. Foreign Fuel Fear: Robert Stavins stresses a Holdren and Stavins are joined by a team The 13 hottest days occurred since 1990. (From point about foreign oil during a February of Belfer Center–affiliated scholars whose John Holdren’s AAAS powerpoint presentation: directors’ seminar with John Holdren (next to http://www.mediafire.com/?4yj5lo1he5m) Stavins) on challenges of climate change. research addresses different aspects of climate

INSIDE: Blocking Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions; Spotlight—Joseph S. Nye R E T N E C R

FROM THE DIRECTOR E F L E B

n my course this spring on “Central Chal- have risen to the top of the national and inter- Ilenges of American Foreign Policy,” I have national agenda. I am proud of the role that students write strategic options memos to the researchers at the Belfer Center are playing in President or other key national security offi- identifying actions that can be taken to address cials in response to “mini-cases” that pose chal- these challenges. In his role as president of the Energy Czar: U.S. Secretary of Energy Sam lenges on the agenda today. One of these AAAS, John Holdren has been highly visible in Bodman (second from left) discusses energy mini-cases focused on energy and environmen- this debate. So too, Rob Stavins, who has and security challenges with Belfer Center tal policy and the tradeoffs among them. In recently finished a major project on post-Kyoto faculty and members of the International Council at a seminar in March. that hypothetical case (see Center website at architecture for international climate policy. http://bcsia.ksg.harvard.edu/research.cfm These topics have also been at the core of a ?program=CORE&pb_id=657), the student is series of brainstorming sessions at the Center working for an unnamed U.S. Senator who is this spring with Energy Secretary Sam Bod- Catastrophe. I am looking forward to returning a credible presidential candidate. The Senator man, and with other scholars and practitioners to China later in the summer for the publica- shares President Bush’s judgment about the such as Andrew Gould, the chief executive of tion of the Chinese edition of the book. perils of America’s “energy addiction” on the Schlumberger Limited, and Adnan Shihab- This spring, the Center welcomed four one hand, and is concerned about the poten- Eldin, former secretary general of OPEC. new fellows—Sally Fegan-Wyles, director of tial for serious climate disruption on the other. The Center is also undertaking a major the UN Development Group Office, The Senator is acutely aware of the high level new project on the Asian front led by Richard Surakiart Sathirathai, Thailand’s former Min- of baloney that infects most public debate Rosecrance. The question: Are the U.S. and ister of Foreign Affairs, Rami Khouri, journal- about these issues. Thus he/she asks the stu- China destined to be strategic adversaries? At ist and Middle East expert, and Bjorn dent as his/her policy advisor to recommend a an initial meeting of a working group consist- Fagersten, multilateral institutions scholar. We way forward on energy security issues and cli- ing of U.S. policy shapers and Chinese policy bid farewell to several key people who are mate change. influentials from the Chinese Academy of moving on in their careers: Managing the The background readings from this case Social Sciences, an agenda was initiated for a Atom’s Jeffrey Lewis to the New America drew heavily on the work of thoughtful leaders several-year project that will involve Track II Foundation, Intrastate Conflict’s Debbie West analyzing these issues, including John conversations aimed at developing a “shared to Simmons’ Nursing School, Research Associ- Holdren, Rob Stavins, John Deutch, Bill vision.” On route to that meeting in Hong ate Angelina Clarke to MIT’s Sloan School, Hogan, Henry Lee, Bill Clarke, Kelly Gal- Kong, I stopped in Seoul, Korea, for the and Research Associate and Micah Zenko to lagher, Dick Cooper, and others. These twin publication of the Korean edition of my book, our own Managing the Atom project. We wish issues of climate disruption and energy security Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable them well. Nye, Armitage Commission Plans Ways for U.S. to Regain Stature —by Evelyn Hsieh, Communications Assistant H C ccording to many polls, the United The commission will focus on strengthen- N Y L States has lost much of its global stature ing U.S. soft power through public diplomacy, Z

I A L and influence in recent years. The Belfer Cen- foreign aid and humanitarian assistance, dia- ter’s Joseph S. Nye and former Deputy Secre- logue, trade, technology, and cultural and edu- tary of State Richard Armitage will lead a new cational exchanges. It will also form and assess Commission on Smart Power to address this strategies that address national security needs problem, as well as to assess how U.S. “hard” in tandem with image management of the and “soft” power instruments can be integrated United States. into a “smart” power strategy. H

C Funded by the Starr Foundation and under N

Y Develop a bipartisan L the auspices of the Center for Strategic and Z I

L International Studies (CSIS) in Washington strategy . . . to help restore D.C., University Distinguished Service Profes- our standing in the world. sor Nye, who serves on the Belfer Center’s Board of Directors, and Armitage, president of —Joseph S. Nye Armitage International, will co-chair the com- mission, which includes 14 additional leaders The commission’s findings and recommen- from government, the military, NGOs, acade- dations regarding the role and image of the mia, the media, and the private sector. Among United States on the global scene will be pre- the members are former Supreme Court Jus- sented as a blueprint for smart power. The tice Sandra Day O’Connor and Nebraska’s report, expected in November, will contribute Senator Chuck Hagel. to key discussions of foreign policy in the Get Smart: Joseph S. Nye (below) and Richard The commission’s primary purpose, Nye 2008 presidential election, in Congress, and Armitage (above) lead a discussion on regaining says, is “to develop a bipartisan strategy for among the American public. U.S. respect at the CSIS Commission on Smart integrating the instruments of foreign policy to Power meeting in February. help restore our standing in the world.” 2 Blocking Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions: An Urgent Action Agenda I V E

ran has quickly risen to the top of the L A

United States’ foreign policy agenda. The H I S U reason is simple, according to Belfer Center C R A

director Graham Allison: “Two words: M Nuclear weapons.” On top of that, the Bush administration accuses Iran of undermining U.S. attempts to bring peace to Iraq. Belfer Center faculty and fellows have pro- posed several recommendations to policymak- ers, and have developed key insights into new ways to view the problem. They published many of these in recent books and articles, and the Center co-sponsored a forum at the Kennedy School in March on Iran, moderated by Allison. Panelists included Belfer Center Senior Fellow Vali Nasr, author of The Shia Iran Impasse? Graham Allison (left) moderates a discussion of “U.S. and Iran: Is Conflict Inevitable?” Revival: How Conflicts within Islam Will Shape at the John F. Kennedy Jr. Forum in March with participants (left to right) David Ignatius, Steven the Future; Washington Post columnist David Miller, Vali Nasr, and Ray Takeyh. Ignatius; the Council on Foreign Relations’ Ray Takeyh, author of Hidden Iran: Paradox and Power in the Islamic Republic; and Steven Accelerate political change by Defense Leaders Urge Miller, director of the Belfer Center’s Interna- engaging Iran, by greater tional Security Program. Carrots and Sticks in Key insights and recommendations from dialogue. —David Ignatius the forum: North Korea Dealings Q: What policies should the U.S. pursue to —by Jennifer Bulkeley, Research solve the Iranian nuclear crisis? The chance of Israel going to Assistant, Preventive Defense Project war with Iran is very low . . . the Ignatius: • Accelerate political change by engaging reventive Defense Project (PDP) Co- chance of the U.S. going to Iran, and by greater dialogue and openings. Pdirectors Ashton Carter and William war with Iran is higher. Perry led a U.S. delegation to the Republic of Allison: —Vali Nasr Korea (ROK) in February to meet with promi- • Offer a “grand bargain” to Iran, in which nent South Korean politicians, experts, poten- the United States engages Iran directly, per- tial South Korean presidential candidates, and Q: What are the odds of the U.S. or Israel haps with a six-party surround. Iranians with the U.S. ambassador and U.S. Forces attacking Iran before the end of the Bush pres- want guarantees against an American attack. commander. American delegates noted that the idency? Belfer Center Senior Researchers Matthew U.S.-ROK alliance—and the U.S. troop pres- ence that goes with it—is crucial for preserving Nasr: The chance of Israel going to war with Bunn and Abbas Maleki believe both sides peace and stability in East Asia and empha- Iran is actually very low, but I think the chance could approve the following: sized that U.S. commitment to the ROK will of the U.S. going to war with Iran is higher. • Provide guarantees of a reliable fuel supply not wane. Both countries have ended up in a foreign pol- for a peaceful Iranian nuclear program. Participants welcomed agreement in the icy that assumes that by being tough on the • Secure Iranian agreement that large-scale Six-Party Talks, and U.S. delegates stressed the other side . . . you bring the other side to the enrichment will occur outside of Iran. importance of economic and political strategies table for a more compromising position. But • Obtain full Iranian cooperation with inter- to address security concerns of all involved. there’s a danger that either side may overreach . national inspectors. PDP participants noted that both carrots and . . The chance now of an accidental conflict • Create a new Trade and Cooperation Agree- sticks will likely be necessary to achieve com- escalating is higher. Iran and the U.S. are in a ment between Iran and Europe. plete denuclearization of the peninsula. situation now like Europe in 1914. • Provide assurances from the U.S. and other major powers that they will not attack Iran. R

Takeyh disagreed: First, there’s no domestic E T

Ashton Carter and William Perry suggest that N consensus for the use of force, a very skeptical E if diplomacy fails, there are several options: C R

Congress, and a president with a very low E F

• Increase direct U.S.-Iran contact. L popularity rating. Second, there’s no interna- E B tional consensus. Finally, there’s no regional • Use coercion to obtain a non-nuclear Iran. consensus. • If Iran succeeds in going nuclear, deter the country from using the weapons or passing Q: What is the Iranian position? a bomb to terrorists by threatening retalia- Miller: Iranians argue that the Americans have tion, encirclement, and containment— this odd conversation about whether they’re including forging a counterweight among Sunni countries. Northern Nukes: Ambassador Robert Joseph going to target the Iranian centrifuges, as if the (left), then under secretary of state for arms Americans have some choice in the matter. By For video of this Forum, see: http://ksgaccman control and international security, discusses law and by precedent, the Iranians say, this is a .harvard.edu/iop/events_forum_video.asp?ID North Korea nuclear challenges with Ashton legitimate and merited act. =3079 Carter (right), co-director, Preventive Defense Project, during a seminar in February. See Allison’s “Iran” assignment (page 8). 3 China’s Oil Initiatives Signal International Cooperation —by Amanda Swanson, Program Administrator, Environment and Natural Resources Program

y 2030, China will have to import 77 After the mid 1990s, China restructured its these countries “greater political flexibility and Bpercent of its crude oil in order to meet state-owned oil and gas companies in response less dependence on the U.S.” its rapidly increasing energy demands. Where to its growing energy needs into two major Taking into consideration all these factors, China will get the 10.9 billion barrels it companies: China National Petroleum Corpo- Lee and Shalmon conclude that China is grad- requires and how it negotiates the global oil ration (CNPC) and the Chinese National ually embracing an oil strategy characterized by market is the subject of a new paper by Henry Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec). Lee and cooperation and depoliticization—not by Lee, director of the Environment and Natural Shalmon describe the evolution of China’s oil choice, but by necessity. Resources Program at the Belfer Center, and companies as “an unusual agglomeration of The full report is available at http://bcsia Dan Shalmon, research associate at the Cen- modern entrepreneurial talent striving for .ksg.harvard.edu/publication.cfm?program ter. “Searching for Oil: China’s Oil Initiatives earnings growth and ever greater profitability, =CORE&ctype=paper&item_id=557. in the Middle East” explores China’s while at the same time remaining arms of a relationships with oil-producing countries and government, increasingly focused on shaping the possible geopolitical implications of its energy policy to meet national strategic and

widening market reach. economic goals.” R E T

China’s quest for oil is not so different N E from the United States’ experience 55 years C R E

China’s quest for oil is not F

ago when Middle East oil markets were L E so different from the United dominated by European interests, accord- B States’ experience 55 years ago. ing to the authors. In order to make inroads into the market today, China must —Henry Lee and Dan Shalmon develop mutually beneficial relationships with oil-producing nations in the region China is the world’s second largest con- such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Yemen, and, sumer of oil after the United States and its most controversially, Sudan. By leveraging demand for energy is increasing. Despite its its engineering expertise and large market size, no substantial oil reserves have been dis- for Middle East products, “China has Counting on Crude: Abdullah Jum’ah (right), covered within its borders. Lee and Shalmon’s shown a sophisticated understanding of the president and CEO of Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Saudi Aramco), discusses “Meeting the Oil Challenge” paper discusses China’s evolution from being Gulf countries’ desire to be seen as strategic at the Belfer International Security Program in January. an example of energy self-sufficiency to trading partners as opposed to simply sup- International Security Program Senior Fellow Richard becoming a sophisticated player in the world pliers of crude oil,” say Lee and Shalmon, Rosecrance, whose current research focuses on oil marketplace. who note that trading with China gives China, takes note.

Solving India’s Coal Dilemma: Energy Needs vs. Climate Disruption — Contributed by Energy Technology Innovation Project

elfer Center researchers Ananth India’s current and future challenges and con- • Rapidly deploying more efficient and com- BChikkatur and Ambuj Sagar, both with straints,” Chikkatur points out, “it is critical to mercial combustion technologies. the Energy Technology Innovation Project assess these new technologies for India.” Key • Establishing a Monitoring & Feasibility (ETIP), have been studying the Indian coal- existing and emerging challenges include rapid Assessment Program to evaluate the appro- power sector over the past two years, with the infrastructure development, energy security, priateness of emerging technologies. aim of developing better technology policies local environment and social issues, and car- • Developing a strategic technology innova- and strategies to meet domestic energy needs bon mitigation. India also has several con- tion program, buttressed by a program of while addressing global climate change. straints such as the poor quality of its domestic domestic policy research. Coal-based power plants account for nearly coal and limited technological and financial • Exploring geological carbon storage oppor- 50 percent of India’s installed electricity capac- capacity. tunities in India, which will yield valuable

A ity, and recent pro- information for India’s carbon mitigation I D

N jections indicate a options. I F

R rapid rise in new O In light of India’s current An upcoming ETIP working paper by capacity, primarily and future challenges and Chikkatur and Sagar describes these policy fueled by coal. options in detail. Sagar believes that their work These plants are constraints, it is critical can be a foundation for building consensus now based almost to assess these new among various stakeholders in India, and solely on the cheap technologies for India. therefore they are engaging with Indian policy and least risky sub- makers on developing a more comprehensive critical pulverized —Ananth Chikkatur and detailed technology assessment process coal technology; and innovation strategy. however, there are Rapid Rise: Ananth Policy options discussed by Chikkatur and Chikkatur discusses cleaner and more A Chikkatur/Sagar article with more detail is Indian energy needs and advanced technolo- Sagar include: available at http://bcsia.ksg.harvard.edu challenges at a gies available world- • Improving the efficiency of the existing /publication.cfm?program=article&ctype conference in New Delhi. wide. “In light of power system. =article&item_id=1706 4 These pages feature a few of the talented women and men who are current and former fellows and associates of the Belfer Center whose work is making significant contributions in public and private sectors around the world. BELFERFellows andCENTER Alums Current Fellows: Profiles in Action Emily Balic 11, 2001, he left the Pentagon 30 minutes issues of coherence and integration at the UN before it was attacked, and from his temporary with new insights that will help increase the Fellow – Program on Intrastate office established the Air Force press opera- effectiveness of international and multilateral Conflict Resolution/International tions, responding immediately to public infor- support to countries that need it. Security Program mation needs. He has won numerous awards As an undergraduate at for excellence in communications. Surakiart Sathirathai the College of William A native of Iowa, Borg grew up in a com- Senior Fellow – International Security and Mary, Emily Balic munications-career family, often accompany- Program lived in Prague and ing his father in his work as a journalist and traveled extensively public affairs professional. Borg became inter- Surakiart Sathirathai, former foreign affairs through central and ested in the Air Force following a White minister, finance minister, and deputy prime southeastern Europe House internship, and received an officer com- minister in Thailand, researching and writing. mission through ROTC. comes to the Belfer Her interest in the area “I will treasure the experience and the rich Center with a wealth of guided her toward a doctoral degree in East education I’ve enjoyed through the center’s experience not only in European History from Stanford University, people and activities,” says Borg, whose government, but also in where she will graduate this summer. research this year is focused on the Department academia, law, and busi- Prior to coming to the Belfer Center, Balic, of Defense’s efforts to build a strategic commu- ness. He was an official who speaks fluent Bosnian/Croatian/Serbian, nication process. “I hope to give a return on candidate for the posi- lived in Bosnia and Herzegovina for two years that investment through my future work.” tion of Secretary-Gen- conducting research for her recently com- eral of the United Nations in 2005–06 and pleted dissertation on Sarajevo during WWII. Sally Fegan-Wyles endorsed by ASEAN (Association of Southeast In the process, she learned about the Belfer Goodman UN Fellow – Belfer Center Asian Nations). Center’s work regarding intrastate conflict and and Carr Center for Human Rights the Balkans. “As an historian working on civil Policy I want to be at a center conflict and identity,” she says, “I wanted to which allows the intellectual gain an interdisciplinary perspective and learn As director of the how to make my research applicable to the United Nations Devel- community to link with policy contemporary world.” opment Group Office, makers and actions on the Sally Fegan-Wyles Balic says that her fellowship at the Belfer ground. I have learned that the Center has given her the opportunity to dis- works with the World cuss and debate with colleagues issues con- Bank to bring together Belfer Center is such a place. cerning the current state of the Balkans and to the different interna- —Surakiart Sathirathai explore ways her research might contribute to tional partners in coun- developing sustainable policies in that region. tries coming out of conflict. The goal, she says, is to “develop a Dr. Surakiart, who is also a visiting scholar Lindsey Borg clear plan of what needs to be done to stabilize at Harvard Law School and the European Law the peace, and to get economic, political, and Research Center this semester, earned masters Fellow – International Security social recovery on track as quickly as possible, degrees from Tufts and Harvard and was the Program/ Harvard’s Program on to prevent the country from sliding back into first Thai to receive a doctorate from Harvard Information Resources Policy conflict.” Law School. His wife, Suthawan, also received At the UN, Fegan-Wyles pioneered pro- a master’s degree from Tufts, and their son, When Lt. Col. Lindsey Santitarn, is currently completing a MPA-ID Borg leaves the Belfer grams that included designing the first UN response to HIV/AIDS in Uganda, leading the at the Kennedy School. Center in June, he will Dr. Surakiart was on the faculty of Thai- take command of pub- international community response to the Zim- babwe drought of 1991, and providing social land’s Chulalongkorn University and served as lic affairs for the Air dean of the university’s law faculty. In busi- Force’s Air Mobility policy advice to the Museveni Government in Uganda during and after the civil war. ness, he co-founded an international law firm, Command at Scott Air Siam Premier. Force Base in Illinois. A key to sustainable peace, Fegan-Wyles believes, is a “holistic” approach to the analyti- While at the Belfer Center, Dr. Surakiart is The command has focusing on establishing international policy global responsibility for Air Force air cargo cal and planning processes that includes the political, military, humanitarian, and develop- dialogue groups on alternative development and refueling missions. An Air Mobility Com- strategies. This three-year project will include mand aircraft takes off or lands every 90 sec- ment actors. While at the Belfer and Carr cen- ters this semester, Fegan-Wyles is meeting and meetings with local policymakers in selected onds every day. developing countries in various regions. “I In his 17-year career, Borg has dealt with a exchanging ideas with a number of faculty and fellows who are interested in and working on want to be at a center which allows the intel- number of crisis communication situations, lectual community to link with policymakers including an incident in which a U.S. Marine issues related to conflict resolution and peace stabilization. and actions on the ground,” Dr. Surakiart Corps’ aircraft accidentally cut a cable car’s says. “I have learned that the Belfer Center is lines in the mountains of Italy. On September Fegan-Wyles believes her experience at the Belfer Center will enable her to approach such a place.” 5 Belfer Center Programs and Projects: International Security Program (ISP); Science, Technology, and Public Policy (STPP); Environment and Natural Resources Program (ENRP); Program on Intrastate Conflict (ICP); Dubai Initiative (DI); and Alums Energy Technology Innovation Project (ETIP); Project on Managing the Atom CENTER(MTA); Science, Technology, and Globalization Project (STG) Belfer Center Alumni: Where Are They Now? Stephen Biddle Kate O’Neill Fellows in the Field Former Fellow (1985–87) Former Fellow (1997–98) and on the Move Stephen Biddle, a senior Kate O’Neill is associate fellow at the Council on professor in the Depart- Welcome to Rami Khouri, new senior Foreign Relations, ment of Environmental fellow with the Belfer Center’s Dubai Initia- researches, writes and con- Science, Policy and Man- tive. Khouri is a journalist and director of sults on security, nuclear, agement at the University the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy in and war-related issues to of California at Berkeley, Beirut. various departments of where she has taught Hassan Abbas (MTA) recently presented government, Congress, global environmental on religion, state, and terror to Turkish mil- and international groups politics and governance itary and NATO. such as NATO. since January 1999. Her Before his appointment to CFR, Biddle current research focuses on a range of interna- Greg Aftandilian (Dubai Initiative/ISP) was a professor of national security studies at tional issues, such as management of haz- addressed the State Department’s Foreign the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies ardous waste, the impact of the World Trade Service Institute regarding Egypt history Institute (SSI), and prior to that, a member of Organization on multilateral environmental and politics. the political science faculty at the University of agreements, and measures to halt the spread of Rasmus Bertelsen (STPP) received North Carolina at Chapel Hill. He has also Mad Cow Disease. Harvard’s Kuwait Program grant to con- held research positions at the Institute for While at the Belfer Center, O’Neill tinue his Middle East research. Defense Analyses (IDA). worked with Science, Technology, and Public Nikolaos Biziouras (ICP/ISP) has been Policy Director John Holdren and Managing named assistant professor of political sci- the Atom’s Matthew Bunn. She worked pri- ence at the United States Naval Academy in The chance to watch Joe Nye, marily in the area of international schemes for Annapolis. the management and transportation of nuclear Ash Carter, and Graham Alli- Seyom Brown (ISP) is the John Good- waste. son dissect presentations . . . win Tower Distinguished Chair of Interna- was an education in itself. tional Politics and National Security at —Stephen Biddle It’s the chance to create that Southern Methodist University. sort of peer-group network that Patrick Cohrs (ISP) has been appointed assistant professor of history at Yale “I try to combine policy relevance with makes post-doc fellowship University. methodological rigor, and my predoctoral fel- opportunities so important. Vanda Felbab-Brown (ICP/ISP) will be lowship at Belfer was an indispensable founda- –—Kate O’Neill assistant professor in the Security Studies tion for this,” Biddle says. “The chance to Program at the School of Foreign Service, watch Joe Nye, Ash Carter, and Graham Georgetown University. Allison dissect presentations and see how fel- “My work at the Belfer Center taught me lows and guests responded was an education two things that have stood me in particularly Joshua Gleis (ISP) will present at the in itself in social science research design. This good stead during my nearly nine years at American Political Science Association experience was at the heart of everything I’ve Berkeley. I began learning how to work in 2007 annual meeting on how to more done since.” interdisciplinary contexts, and to communi- effectively withdraw from insurgencies. In a “Conversations with History” inter- cate across disciplinary lines. Also, the work Michael Glosny (ISP), Alex Weisiger view last year at UC Berkeley, Biddle also being done by others at the Center helped me (ICP/ISP), and Todd Sechser (ISP praised two of the Center founders, Albert realize the importance of ‘problem-solving’ or 2004–06) have been named Olin fellows Carnesale, former UCLA chancellor and cur- policy-oriented work, in addition to the more for next year. rent Belfer Center Board member now at the theoretical orientation of much academic Kelly Greenhill (ISP/ICP) has been Center, and Michael Nacht, now dean of the work. In my department, these sorts of skills named assistant professor of political sci- Goldman School of Public Policy at Berkeley, are very useful to have,” says O’Neill. She is ence at Tufts and will continue as a Belfer who, he said, “became role models for a life of currently working on a manuscript regarding Center fellow. the mind in this field, what it should look the environment and international relations. Michael Horowitz (ISP) has been like, and how apparently fun it could be.” The most important and lasting influence appointed assistant professor of political A prolific writer, Biddle’s 2004 book, Mili- from her time at the Belfer Center, O’Neill science at the University of Pennsylvania. tary Power: Explaining Victory and Defeat in says, has been the network of friends and col- Modern Battle, won the Council on Foreign leagues drawn from her cohort of post-docs Jeremy Jones (Dubai Initiative/ISP) pre- Relations Arthur Ross Award Silver Medal. In and other fellows. “It’s the chance to create that sented to the Naval Academy and U.S. War this book, Biddle argues that how weapons sort of peer-group network that makes post- College regarding his new book on negoti- and systems are employed and deployed is doc fellowship opportunities so important.” ating change in the Middle East. integral to military strategy. continued on page 16

6 May and Zelikow: Intelligence-Policy Split Hurts U.S. —by Angelina Clarke, Research Assistant R E

he conventional wisdom has been that T N E Tintelligence gathering and analysis C R should be totally separate. However, two of the E F L E

brightest minds in foreign policy argued dur- B ing a recent brainstorming session at the Belfer Center that this separation is not necessarily wise. Ernest May, Belfer Center Board mem- ber and Harvard history professor who served as senior adviser to the 9/11 Commission, and Philip Zelikow, executive director of the 9/11 Commission and former counselor to the U.S. Secretary of State, tried to convince their col- leagues that to be effective, intelligence analysts must work closely with policymakers.

Intelligent Discourse: Ernest May (left), Philip Zelikow (center), and Graham Allison following Detachment is no May and Zelikow’s discussion of intelligence and their book Dealing with Dictators. substitute for honesty. —Philip Zelikow May argued that there are three key judg- May and Zelikow’s new book, Dealing with ments that a policymaker must make: Dictators, is rich with examples of instances in • Reality judgments—“What’s going on?” which intelligence analysts weren’t asked for an Zelikow argued that the separation of intel- • Value judgments—“What difference does estimate that could have informed a political ligence analysts and policymakers is anomalous it make?” decision. The authors demonstrate decision- to the United States and counterproductive. • Instrumental judgments—“What should makers’ deliberations with specific historical “Detachment,” he said, “is no substitute for we do now?” cases, including Saddam Hussein in the lead up to the Gulf War, the Shah of Iran, Chiang honesty.” One major problem that arises from Intelligence analysts should think explic- Kai-shek, and Nicaragua’s Anastasio Samosa. such detachment: decision-makers receive itly about the decision-making process so Zelikow argues that it is the analyst’s job to actionable intelligence only for tactical deci- that the right information makes it into the understand the decisions to be made and raise sions, while complaining that intelligence for policymaker’s calculus. For instance, the questions that better inform that judgment, not strategic decisions is too academic in nature. National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq to recommend the judgment itself. While analyzing intelligence, the analyst addressed none of the political issues, such should ask why the policymaker should care as, “Is an invasion the best way to stop Sad- about this evidence.” dam’s WMD program?” Climate Disruptions Future of Coal Must Include CO2 Reductions (continued from page 1) — by Beth Maclin, Intern, Communications Office in China, India, and the United States. ohn Deutch, Institute Professor at MIT While the scale is daunting and “many William Hogan’s Harvard Electricity Policy Jand Belfer Center Board of Directors and hundreds of such plants would be needed Project looks at electricity-sector structure and International Council member, testified before worldwide to significantly affect global warm- regulation as important factors affecting the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural ing,” Deutch and Moniz argue in an oped energy problems and solutions, including cli- Resources in late March on the recent MIT (Wall Street Journal, 19 March 2007) that the mate change. William Clark and Calestous report “The Future of Coal—Options for a government and the coal industry need to take Juma lead efforts on the theory and practice Carbon Constrained World,” co-authored with the necessary measures to support these of environmental sustainability in both indus- MIT’s Ernest Moniz. The report examines changes. trialized and developing countries. how the world can continue to use coal in a The Belfer Center debated these topics way that mitigates instead of worsens the The U.S. must take the recently with a number of experts. Richard global warming crisis. N. Cooper, Maurits C. Boas Professor of The report states that carbon capture and lead in showing the world Economics at Harvard University, does not sequestration (CCS) is the critical enabling CCS can work. believe a target-based post-Kyoto agreement is technology to help reduce CO2 emissions sig- —John Deutch possible. Instead, he believes the world should nificantly, while also allowing coal, an abun- focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions dant and inexpensive fuel, to meet the world’s from coal. pressing energy needs. The MIT study builds on a report released Shirley Jackson, president of the Rensse- Deutch and Moniz advocate for the U.S. in January by the Council on Foreign Rela- laer Polytechnic Institute, summed up chal- to assume global leadership on this issue tions’ Independent Task Force on Energy and lenges to decision-makers at a John F. through adoption of significant policy U.S. Foreign Policy, chaired by Deutch and Kennedy Jr. Forum in February. “Addressing actions. “As the world’s leading energy user James Schlesinger of the Belfer Center’s Inter- energy requirements in ways that are environ- and greenhouse gas emitter, the U.S. must national Council, and on which the Center’s mentally self-sustaining,” she said, “is the take the lead in showing the world CCS can Graham Allison, Robert Belfer, and Martin central challenge of our time.” work,” Deutch says. Feldstein all served. 7 Q&AGraham Allison Belfer Center Director Graham Allison teaches a popular Kennedy School of Government course—Central Challenges in American Foreign Policy. Question: How do you teach your Kennedy School public policy students—many of whom will become influential policy makers—to deal wisely with problems they may encounter in the real world? Allison: I use hypothetical cases—based on real-life situations—to which students must respond with creative solutions. One of Allison’s cases this semester—Blocking Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions—is presented here. Newsletter readers are invited to submit solutions to newsletter editor [email protected].

Situation: that the administration risks provoking a war. The President’s view is that “rattling his cage” The world is as it is today. All conditions rele- Hypothetical: The President and should make them more willing to deal. vant to the case are materially the same as they Secretary of State Rice sees Iran’s nuclear the Secretary of State . . . have were on April 2, 2007, except for the hypo- challenge as a “Cuban Missile Crisis in slow asked Negroponte to be theticals introduced in the case. motion.” The administration has identified two As the conditions in Iraq deteriorate, the inventive in exploring options bright lines of special concern: (1) technical rise of Iran becomes more vivid. Elimination between acquiesce and attack independence, that is, knowledge of how to of the Taliban to the East and Saddam to the construct and operate a cascade of centrifuges that best protect and advance West has left Iran as the major power in the so that, if interrupted, Natanz could be repli- region. After fighting Israel to a standstill last American national interests . . . cated; and (2) operation of 3,000+ centrifuges summer, Iran’s client, Hezbollah, has emerged Negroponte has hired you to in a cascade continuously for nine months to as the dominant political force in Lebanon. produce the first bomb’s worth of highly assist him in finding a path Many now foresee the rise of Shiite power enriched uranium. across the Arab crescent. With the wind at its between these two options. The President is clearly frustrated. In pri- back, Iran’s nuclear program is on track to vate, he recognizes that his administration’s cross the point of no return this year. approach to North Korea failed to prevent Assignment: North Korea from producing a stockpile of The President and the Secretary of State have Hypothetical: ElBaradei warned plutonium—indeed, testing a nuclear bomb. concluded that they need a serious strategic He is determined not to allow Iran to become that Iran could be a mere reassessment of our strategy to block Iran’s the second new nuclear state on his watch. But nuclear weapons program. As the new member six months away from the more he and others in the administration of the policy team, Deputy Secretary of State enriching on an industrial scale. examine the military attack option, the less John Negroponte has been given this assign- Three-thousand fully functioning attractive it appears. He is convinced that the ment. His task is to start afresh and to reexam- U.S. or Israel can destroy all the targets we can ine our position today, our national interests, centrifuges can produce identify. But a military attack is unlikely to and our options. Specifically, the President and a bomb’s worth of highly erase knowledge from the heads of people who the Secretary have asked Negroponte to be enriched uranium (HEU) acquire technical competence in constructing inventive in exploring options between acqui- and running a cascade of centrifuges. Further- esce and attack that best protect and advance in 271 days. more, air strikes cannot destroy targets that we American national interests. have not identified, including possible parallel Known for your capacity for strategic The official U.S. intelligence estimate pre- covert cascades. Moreover, as the administra- thinking while on Nicholas Burns’ team, dicts that Iran will not acquire a bomb until tion has examined the list of actions Iran could Negroponte has hired you to assist him in “early to mid next decade.” In February 2007, take in response to an American attack on its finding a path between these two options. however, IAEA Director General Mohamed nuclear facilities, and the likely retaliation oth- He asks you to write a three-page analytic ElBaradei confirmed that Iran is operating ers in the Muslim and Arab world would take options memo that presents three “outside the one 164-machine cascade at its underground, against American and allies’ interests, this path box” strategies for resolving this conflict, eval- industrial-scale Fuel Enrichment Plant at seems even less attractive. uates the pros and cons of each, and makes a Natanz and that the Islamic Republic plans to recommendation. bring 3,000 centrifuges into operation by May President’s Conclusions: The President has told Negroponte specifi- 2007. ElBaradei warned that Iran could be a On the diplomatic front, the President has cally that he should not be constrained by mere six months away from enriching on an concluded that the sanction route is almost prior positions taken by the administration. industrial scale. 3,000 fully functioning cen- certainly too weak and too slow to prevent The task is to be inventive and to be prepared trifuges can produce a bomb’s worth of highly Iran’s reaching its goal line. Although the UN to use all the sticks and carrots in the Ameri- enriched uranium (HEU) in 271 days. Security Council passed Resolution 1747 on can and international arsenals that can feasibly This possibility has motivated President March 24, condemning Iran’s uranium enrich- be mobilized to this end. Our operational Bush’s new urgency in addressing the Iranian ment for the third time in a year, the probabil- objective, the President reiterated, is to prevent challenge. Visible in the President’s State of the ity that this “slow squeeze” strategy, in itself, Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons within Union address, the administration is deliber- prevents Iran from producing a bomb is less the foreseeable future, by which he said he ately taking a more confrontational approach than 20 percent. Indeed, the White House means at least five years. to Iran. Vice President Cheney’s national secu- suspects that both Russia and China see the Best solutions to this case—as judged by rity adviser John Hannah has declared 2007 sanctions process primarily as a mechanism to Graham Allison—will be made available on “the year of Iran.” Critics are now worrying keep the U.S. engaged so it doesn’t attack Iran. the Belfer Center website after May 15, 2007 at www.belfercenter.org. 8 ProvidingBELFER Leadership . . . Advancing SPEAKERS Policy R T E R T A N W E E C T S R E A F H L E T B R A M

Public Accountability: Edith Brown Weiss, chairperson of the What Next? Karl W. Eikenberry (right), incoming deputy chairman for the World Bank Inspection Panel, speaks on “Accountability, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Military Committee and former Compliance and International Financial Institutions: Hearing commanding general, Combined Forces Command, Afghanistan, discusses from Poor People,” in March.The Francis Cabell Brown “Afghanistan: A Campaign Assessment” at a John F.Kennedy Jr. Forum in March Professor of International Law at Georgetown University, with Ashton Carter, co-director of the Preventive Defense Project and Brown Weiss focuses on the intersection of public policy with member of the Center’s Board of Directors. international law. R R E E T T N N E E C C R R E E F F L L E E B B

Parliamentary Parlance:Three senior British members of Parliament (facing camera) meet with the Belfer Center’s John Holdren and Oil at the Core: Former Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Defense, and CIA Kelly Sims Gallagher to look at climate change research and policy Director James Schlesinger (right), who heads the Center’s International issues. From left to right, Lord Harrison of Chester, The Rt. Hon. Council, with Nobel Laureate Roy Glauber during a Schlesinger seminar Greg Knight, MP,and Lord Corbett of Castle Vale. on “Oil and National Security” in March. R R E E T T R N E N E E T C C N E R R C E E F F R L L E E E F B B L E B

From Inside Out: Imad Moustapha, Syria’s ambassador to the United States, discusses “The Controversial Coverage: Cristine Russell, View from Down Under: Robert Middle East: A Perspective From Within,” with fellow with the Center’s Environment and O’Neill, planning director of the United Belfer Center faculty, fellows, and students. Also Natural Resources Program and president of States Studies Centre, University of pictured: Tarik Yousef, senior fellow with the the Council for the Advancement of Science Sydney, Australia, discusses his views on Dubai Initiative and dean of the Dubai School of Writing, discusses reporting on controversial “Iraq, the United States and the World” in Government. science at a directors’ lunch in March. a Belfer Center seminar in March.

9 SPEAKERSncing Policy-Relevant Knowledge R R Federal Failure: Senator Mary E E T T N N

Landrieu of Louisiana, who serves on E E C C the Senate’s Homeland Security R R E E F F

Committee, described the devastation L L E E B

B of New Orleans following Hurricane Katrina and the inadequate federal response in a riveting discussion titled “The Road to Reconstruction” at a Center seminar in April. Also pictured: the Center’s Xenia Dormandy (left) and Henry Lee, faculty chair of the Kennedy School’s “Broadmoor (New Orleans) Initiative.” R

Central Commander: E

Nuclear Future? Joseph Cirincione, senior vice T N

president for national security and international Lieutenant General (ret.) E C

policy with the Center for American Progress, David W. Barno (second R E F

discusses his book Bomb Scare:The History and Future from left), former head of the L E of Nuclear Weapons with Center faculty and fellows U.S. Central Command B in March. Also pictured: Joseph S. Nye. coordinating efforts in Afghanistan, Pakistan and the region, discusses U.S. foreign

R policy and military challenges E

T at a seminar in February. Also N E

C pictured: Brigadier General R

E (ret.) and Belfer Center Senior Fellow F L T E Kevin Ryan (left), Executive Director R B Xenia Dormandy (second from right), A W E

and Associate Professor Monica Duffy T S

Toft (far right). A H T R A M

Political Science: Shirley Ann Jackson, renowned scientist and Converging Paths: Abdeslam Maghraoui, former director president of Rensselaer Polytechnic of the Muslim World Initiative at the U.S. Institute of Peace, Institute, with Center Director speaks on “Pathways to Democracy in the Muslim World: Graham Allison following her Free Elections vs. Religious Reforms” in March. Ginger Pollack Lecture on “Science and Leadership:The Imperative” at the John F.Kennedy Jr. Forum Dagli, executive director of the Belfer Center’s Dubai in February. Jackson noted that today’s major international challenges require a new Initiative, is also pictured. relationship between science and political leadership. S S N N O O I M T M A I N S Z D T E I F T I M N U O T

Global Awareness: John Holdren, director of the Belfer Center’s Science, Technology, and Public Policy program (second from right), with UN Vetting the Wars:“Lessons from the Front Lines” was the focus of a John F. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon (third from left), upon release of the Kennedy Jr. Forum in February moderated by David Gergen (left), director UN/Sigma Xi report on climate change in February. Also pictured are of the Kennedy School Center for Public Leadership. Participants included report co-authors (left to right): former Under Secretary of State Harvard veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan: (left to right) Major Joseph Timothy Wirth, and members of the Scientific Expert Group on Ewers, Lt. Col. Oscar Hall, Maura Sullivan, Lt. Col. Dan Wagner, and Climate Change and Sustainable Development: Peter Raven, Rosina Lt. Col. Frederick Wellman. Bierbaum, Michael MacCracken, Holdren, and Richard Moss.

10 SPOTLIGHTJoseph S. Nye Joseph S. Nye, Jr., a member of the Belfer Center’s Board of Directors, is University Distinguished Service Professor, Sultan of Oman Professor of International Relations, and Dean Emeritus of the Kennedy School of Government. Nye has served in government as Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, Chair of the National Intelligence Council, and Deputy Under Secre- tary of State for Security Assistance, Science and Technology. His books include Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics, Understanding International Conflict, and The Power Game: A Washington Novel. “Sometimes people say soft power is too Rights Policy, and the Center for Public soft to accomplish anything,” Nye said. “It’s an Leadership. important part of the arsenal of power. When Nye’s work has taken him all over the you ignore it, as we tend to have done, it turns world. On one recent trip, Nye went to Libya out to be quite costly.” to talk to Muammar el-Qaddafi about soft Nye, former dean of the Kennedy School power. Qaddafi, who has expressed interest in and member of the Belfer Center Board of opening Libya to the rest of the world, sum- Directors, spent several years in government, moned a handful of top Western intellectuals, first in the Carter administration setting non- including Nye, to Tripoli. proliferation strategy, and later in the Clinton When Nye arrived, Qaddafi ushered him n increasingly prosperous China, political administration as chairman of the National into his tent, where he had five of Nye’s books Ileaders are articulating a clear strategy for Intelligence Council and as assistant secretary laid out on a table. Qaddafi mentioned his increasing the country’s leadership in world of defense for International Security Affairs. He interest in direct democracy and finding new affairs. “We should never underestimate the holds a Ph.D. in political science from Har- ways of governing. importance of building soft power,” National vard, and joined the Harvard faculty in 1964. People’s Congress Deputy Peng Fuchun declared during the annual sessions of China’s Qaddafi ushered him into his parliament in March. Nye also designed a tent, where he had five of Nye’s European leaders are sounding a similar two-pronged approach to deal books laid out on a table. theme. In a public speech earlier this year, with a rising China . . . British Prime Minister Tony Blair said “The combination of hard and soft power is still the “He said mankind had not solved the right course for our country, indeed more so While working in government in the early problem of power, but he thought direct than ever.” 1990s, Nye reshaped the U.S. defense strategy democracy was the way, and that was the heart The notion of “soft power”—coined by the in Asia, setting the key framework that still of his Green Book (published in 1975 high- Belfer Center’s Joseph S. Nye in 1990 to underpins U.S. policy there today. At the time, lighting Qaddafi’s political philosophy and describe a country’s ability to achieve its aims he said, the foreign policy community viewed views on democracy),” Nye wrote in his notes though attraction, rather than force—is reshap- the U.S. partnership with Japan as a relic of on the visit. Nye talked about James Madison ing international politics, as leaders around the the Cold War. Nye, instead, made it the cor- and U.S. approaches to power. world act to boost their countries’ reputations. nerstone of security in the region. He also Later, Nye gave Qaddafi a signed copy of The Chinese government, taking Nye’s theory designed a two-pronged approach to deal with his book, Soft Power: The Means to Success in to heart, has in recent years increased aid to its a rising China: balancing against any aggres- World Politics, and Qaddafi signed a copy of neighbors and established “Confucius Insti- siveness through the U.S.-Japan partnership, his Green Book for Nye. tutes” abroad. In Europe, leaders describe the and integrating China more closely into the “That was a good thing,” Nye notes. tremendous power that comes with attracting world community. “When I arrived late at the airport and the air- new members to NATO. Nye had planned to stay in government. port officials told me I had failed to have my When former Harvard president Neil Rudens- hotel stamp the visa in my passport, I pulled tine first approached him about becoming out my copy of the Green Book and showed Nye argues that countries need dean of the Kennedy School, Nye said he was them Qaddafi’s signature. They inspected it, smart power, a combination of not interested in the job. and then waved me through.” But after the 1995 Oklahoma City bomb- both hard power—military ing, Nye’s decision changed. He found himself power and economic sticks— stunned by the public reaction to the attacks. and soft power, to be effective. “It was not just the act itself, which was horrifying—people killed because they work for the American government—but the reac- The influence of Nye’s ideas reach beyond tion that government was so evil that it was a politics: Microsoft’s chief software architect proper subject for destruction,” Nye said. even uses “soft power” to describe his role By reentering academia, Nye felt he could within the company—attracting people to the help change that perception. power of his ideas, rather than managing by As dean, Nye expanded the Kennedy force. School faculty by 40 percent, boosting the In his own work, Nye argues that countries ranks of minorities and women. He also need “smart power,” a combination of both helped found five research centers, including “hard power”—military power and economic Gone Fishin’: Nye with Chinook in the Ash Institute for Democratic Governance Alaska during a treasured time off. sticks—and “soft power,” to be effective. and Innovation, the Carr Center for Human 11 International Security • EnvironmentNEWSMAKERS and Natural Resources • Science, Technology, and Public Policy • Intrastate Conflict Albert Carnesale, former chancellor of UCLA and “MOHAMMED READILY ACKNOWL- “THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION Lucius N. Littauer Professor EDGES THAT HE IS AN ENEMY COM- WATCHED as North Korea added eight of Public Policy who serves BATANT at war with the United States—a bombs of plutonium to its arsenal and con- on the Belfer Center’s Board ‘jackal fighting in the nights,’ in his own strik- ducted a nuclear test. Only then did the United of Directors, is heading a ing phrase. But does it really honor States resort to diplomacy, enter serious negoti- congressionally mandated review of alterna- the memory of Daniel Pearl to torture his ations, and reach last month’s agreement.” tives to the Pentagon’s plan to transform murderer?” nuclear-tipped Trident missiles into conven- —Graham Allison, “Lessons from JFK on tional global-strike weapons. The study is —Niall Ferguson, “We Become Them, They Power, Diplomacy,” Boston Globe (2 March being conducted by the Naval Studies Become Us,” Los Angeles Times (18 March 2007) 2007) Board, an arm of the National Academy of “MAKING NUCLEAR TRANSFER A Sciences. “FOR IRAN, THE WAR IN IRAQ CRIME AGAINST HUMANITY captures Eliot Cohen, former Inter- TURNED OUT TO BE A STRATEGIC the enormity of the offense and would dramat- national Security Program WINDFALL, uprooting Baathism and pacify- ically increase the cost of getting caught. fellow and professor at Johns ing a nemesis that had been a thorn in its side Nuclear transfer threatens the lives of millions Hopkins School of for much of the 20th century. Iraq’s new Shi- of people. It merits a place in infamy alongside Advanced International ite—and in good measure, Kurdish—masters genocide and other evils.” Studies, has been named enjoy friendly ties with Iran. It was no coinci- —Thomas Wright and Anne-Marie Slaughter, counselor to U.S. Secretary of State Con- dence that Iran was the first of Iraq’s neighbors “Punishment to Fit the Nuclear Crime,” Wash- doleezza Rice, focusing on issues in Iraq to recognize its new government and to ington Post (2 March 2007) and Afghanistan. He replaces Philip encourage Iraqis to participate in the political Zelikow, who returned to teaching at the process introduced by the United States.” “THE WORLD IS BECOMING A POL- University of Virginia. —Vali Nasr, “Who Wins in Iraq?” Foreign YARCHY—an international system run by Policy (March/April 2007) numerous and diverse actors with a shifting Martin Feldstein, George F. kaleidoscope of associations and dependencies Baker Professor of Econom- “WHAT COMES AFTER IRAQ? If President . . . The significant actors . . . are not only the ics at Harvard University Bush’s troop ‘surge’ fails to produce an outcome nation-states of great military and economic and member of the Belfer that can be called ‘victory,’ what lessons will endowments, but smaller states, nonstate and Center’s Board of Directors, the United States draw for its future foreign transnational actors, as well as various regional received the 2007 Bradley policy? Will it turn inward, as it did after its and global institutions, some with a degree of Prize for Outstanding Achievement from defeat in Vietnam three decades ago? Will it supranational authority.” the Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation. turn from promoting democracy to a narrow —Seyom Brown, “Changes Afoot on the The award, for his contribution “to eco- realist view of its interests?” Diplomatic Stage,” Boston Globe (25 February nomic thought and his vigorous defense of —Joseph S. Nye, “American Foreign Policy 2007) free markets,” was presented in May at the After Iraq,” San Francisco Chronicle (14 March John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing 2007) “NATO’S CRUCIAL ROLE [in Afghanistan] Arts. is to establish security throughout the country Benjamin Heineman, “THE LANGUAGE OF ‘POVERTY —and not to dilute its focus in eradication senior fellow at the Belfer REDUCTION’ has done more harm than and interdiction missions that are presently Center and former GE good. It has put emphasis on short-term inter- bound to fail.” senior vice president for law ventions such as relief efforts at the expense of —Vanda Felbab-Brown, “Opium Wars,” and public affairs, has been long-term competence-building programmes Wall Street Journal (20 February 2007) asked to serve on an Inde- that raise economic productivity and expand “GUARANTEEING A HIGH PRICE FOR pendent Review Panel appointed by the opportunities for wider access to productive WHEAT would probably cost less than the World Bank and chaired by Paul Volcker, assets. The time has come to make a transition billions devoted to eradication. It would also former chairman of the Federal Reserve and from a discourse-based, debate-filled approach put more money than from poppies directly member of the Center’s International to a new vision emphasizing practical outputs into the pockets of farmers and, simultane- Council. The panel will assess the Bank’s to ultimately serve the poor.” ously, cut out middlemen and traffickers.” anti-corruption efforts. —Calestous Juma, “Linking Knowledge and Business,” Business Daily (9 March 2007) —Robert I. Rotberg, “Losing the War in Calestous Juma, director of Afghanistan,” Boston Globe (2 April 2007) the Science, Technology, and “DETERRING OTHER GREAT POWERS, Globalization project, spoke such as Russia and China, will require Wash- “INDIA IS WORKING ON HEARTS AND on innovation in science and ington to maintain its dominance in conven- MINDS, opening consulates and providing technology to African heads tional warfare and therefore at least to maintain over $750 million in infrastructure and train- of state in January at the its current level of military spending. But in ing support, while Pakistan is trying to bridge eighth African Union Summit in Addis addition, the United States now faces three new the hostility existing since the Afghan and Pak- Ababa, Ethiopia. Juma’s presentation was types of threats for which its existing military istan governments ended up on different sides. on “The New Culture of Innovation: Africa capacity is either ill suited or insufficient.” And so the proxy war continues with a differ- in the Age of Technological Opportuni- —Martin Feldstein, “The Underfunded Pen- ent cast.” ties.” He emphasized participation in the tagon,” Foreign Affairs (March/April 2007) —Xenia Dormandy, “Afghanistan’s Proxy global economy, protecting the environ- War,” Boston Globe (16 February 2007) ment, and improving governance. 12 MAKERS• Science, Technology, and Public Policy • Intrastate Conflict John P. Holdren, director of the Belfer Center’s Science, “INTERVENTION MOST OFTEN “COAL COMBUSTION CONTRIBUTES Technology, and Public Pol- DESTROYS the very government and political ABOUT 40 PERCENT of the global emis- icy Program, presided over class that occupiers need as a rebuilding part- sions of carbon dioxide, the major greenhouse the annual meeting of the ner. Successful military interventions require gas; and most qualified scientists believe AAAS, leading the charge to overwhelming force, large troop concentra- human-generated greenhouse gas emissions are stop and reverse climate change in a meet- tions, strong multinational support—and the causing global warming. . . . The most effective ing that drew more than 10,000 scientists, quick reestablishment of central government.” way to reduce the atmospheric concentration of teachers, students, and journalists from —Richard Rosecrance, “When Terrorism greenhouse gases is to place a significant charge around the globe. On the heels of the Succeeds—and Fails,” Christian Science Moni- on the emission of CO2 and other greenhouse AAAS meeting, Holdren joined in the tor (15 February 2007) gases. The charge can be an emission tax or the release of the UN/Sigma Xi report he co- price of an emission ‘allowance’ obtained in a authored on “Confronting Climate Change: “‘PEOPLE CANNOT SHOW THEIR CON- cap-and-trade system.” Avoiding the Unmanageable and Managing CERN because of the need for solidarity. But —John Deutch and Ernest Moniz, “A Future the Unavoidable.” they really are concerned now, and this is the for Fossil Fuel,” Wall Street Journal (15 March Jeffrey Lewis, former direc- discussion deep in all of the families,’ Maleki 2007) said. ‘Iranians want to have a better situation. tor of the Belfer Center’s They are working and they are trying to have “THERE ARE ONLY FOUR MISSIONS Project on Managing the better education for their sons and daughters, that U.S. troops are performing in Iraq: the Atom, has accepted a post as and all of these issues will be destroyed with three above that Congress is willing to con- director of the Nuclear Strat- one strike.’” tinue and the one they’re not—keeping Sunnis egy and Nonproliferation —Abbas Maleki, quoted in “Dissent Grows in and Shi’ites from killing each other.” Initiative at the New America Foundation. Iran,” Los Angeles Times (8 February 2007) —Kevin Ryan, “The ‘Withdrawal’ That Isn’t,” Lewis, who continues as a research affiliate Boston Globe (29 March 2007) with Managing the Atom, also maintains a “‘SINCE 2001 THERE HAS BEEN A TOR- leading blog on nuclear arms control and RENT OF NEW SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE “FOR HUNDREDS OF YEARS, people have nonproliferation, ArmsControlWonk on the magnitude, human origins and growing been living on both sides of the border, and .com, which he founded. impacts of the climatic changes that are under- when it was divided they found it inconceiv- way,’ said Mr. Holdren, who is the president of able that they should suddenly be residents of Joseph S. Nye, University the American Association for the Advancement another country.” Distinguished Service Profes- of Science.” sor and member of the Belfer —Hassan Abbas, quoted in “Where the Tal- Center Board of Directors, —John Holdren, quoted in “Panel Issues iban Breeds,” Toronto Star (18 February 2007) was presented in February Bleak Report on Climate Change,” New York the honorary degree Doctor Times (2 February 2007) “THE INTERACTION OF THE TWO STRATEGIES FAVORS INSURGENTS. of Social Sciences, Honoris Causa, by King’s “ ‘AS A NATION, WE’VE LOST SOME- This interaction of strategies—conventional- College London, which recognized him as THING that’s very hard to get back, which is direct versus unconventional-indirect—marked “one of the foremost thinkers on foreign the benefit of the doubt,’ said Ashton B. the French attempt to re-establish control of policy.” Carter, a Harvard professor who worked for Indochina, the Americans against the Viet- John Ruggie, Stephen Walt, the Clinton administration and is now on an cong, and the Soviets against the Afghans. In and Joseph S. Nye, all mem- advisory panel to Secretary of State Con- each of these asymmetric conflicts, the insur- bers of the Belfer Center doleezza Rice. ‘It will be years before we restore gents won using unconventional-indirect Board of Directors, are listed our reputation for veracity, and the only way to strategies.” for the second year in a row do that is to reveal more about the sensitive —Ivan Arreguin-Toft, interview in “How a among the top 25 scholars information that underlies our policies.’’’ Superpower Can Lose to the Little Guy,” Nie- “who have had the greatest —Ashton B. Carter, quoted in “Reporters man Watchdog website (23 March 2007) impact on the field of inter- and Sources Slowed Their Dance to Show the national relations over the Steps,” New York Times (11 March 2007) “IF THE U.S. CAN BE DRIVEN OUT, the past 20 years,” in The View Islamist fundamentalists, Jihadis, insurgents from the Ivory Tower: TRIP “THE STRONGEST SUPPORTERS OF and other dark forces in the region will have Survey of International Rela- DEMOCRACY in the Middle East are (not won. There will simply be no one to prevent tions Faculty in the United States and surprisingly) those who have the most to gain them from using terror, WMD, subversion Canada, a report produced by the College from it, and in recent years—and for the fore- and religious fanaticism to pursue their aims— of William & Mary. seeable future—these are and will be groups no one. The radicals of the Moslem world will such as Hamas, Hezbollah and Egypt’s Muslim be triumphant—Iran, al Qaeda, Hamas, Anthony Wier, former Man- Brotherhood.” Hizballah and more.” aging the Atom research —Jeremy Jones, “The Voice of the People,” —Chuck Freilich, “Iraq: Consequences of associate, has joined the staff Baltimore Sun (21 March 2007) Withdrawal,” Human Events (21 March 2007) of the Senate Foreign Rela- tions Committee. Wier, co- author of the Belfer (To read opeds in full, see Publications on the Belfer Center website: www.belfercenter.org) Center/NTI annual “Securing the Bomb” publication, is working with the committee —Compiled by Beth Maclin, intern, Communications Office. on nuclear, chemical, and biological non- proliferation issues. 13 development and draws out policy recommenda- HOT OFF tions from her findings. . . . Eloquent discussion and shrewd insights help readers to understand why these appalling THE PRESSES forms of human cruelty have The Gene Revolution: GM Crops and counterparts of Edwin Ginn and the occurred so frequently. . . . Unequal Development World Peace Foundation today.” —Mark Kramer Edited by Sakiko Fukuda-Parr; Earthscan —Alan K. Henrikson,The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University The high-yield selective “Helen Fein has long been one of the breeding of “the Green world’s leading experts on genocide Revolution” of the 1960s Service to Country: Personnel Policy and the and state-sponsored massacres. In her and 70s is now being Transformation of Western Militaries superb new book she returns to that overtaken by “the Gene Edited by Curtis Gilroy and Cindy Williams, subject but also delves into other Revolution”—the develop- BCSIA Studies in International Security; atrocities—terror, torture, and slav- ment and spread of GM The MIT Press ery—that have been perpetrated by crops across the world. states and by non-state actors alike. . . . This is the first book to Motivated, able, and well- her eloquent discussion and shrewd bridge the gap between trained military personnel insights help readers to understand are essential to the suc- the “naysayers” and why these appalling forms of human cess of any military, and “cheerleaders,” and to provide a penetrating cruelty have occurred so frequently examination of the realities, complexities, bene- personnel policies are cru- cial to getting and keeping and why bringing an end to them has fits and pitfalls of GM adoption in developing been so difficult.” countries that are desperately fighting poverty qualified servicemen and while trying to stay afloat in the hyper-competi- women.The transforma- —Mark Kramer, Director of Cold War Studies, tive global economy. tion of personnel policies Harvard University is an important element of “An accessible introduction to the the broader transforma- The End of Government . . . As We Know It: food and environmental policy issues tion occurring in Western militaries. Across Making Public Policy Work posed by the Gene Revolution . . . Europe and North America, nations are embrac- By Elaine C. Kamarck; Lynne Rienner should be required reading!” ing plans to change military personnel policies to —Vernon W. Ruttan, University of Minnesota build future capabilities consistent with new In the last decades of the strategic environments and with the demographic twentieth century, many A Leadership for Peace: How Edwin Ginn and societal realities of the future. For many political leaders declared nations, a key reform is to shift from a conscript that government was, in Tried to Change the World military to a smaller, all-volunteer force. the words of Ronald Rea- By Robert I. Rotberg; Stanford University Press gan,“the problem, not the “The book is a must-read for anyone For as long as there has solution.” But on closer interested in the future of successful inspection, argues Elaine been war, there have been Western militaries.” those who have opposed Kamarck, the revolt such bloodshed. Here —General Sir Rupert Smith, British Army (ret.), against government was Robert Rotberg details the former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander and is a revolt against flowering of the great Europe, and author of The Utility of Force:The Art bureaucracy—a revolt that has taken place in American peace movement of War in the Modern World first world, developing, and avowedly communist in the late nineteenth cen- countries alike. tury and the remarkable Human Rights and Wrongs: To some, this looks like the end of govern- life of its foremost propo- Slavery,Terror, Genocide ment. Kamarck, however, counters that what we are seeing is the replacement of the traditional nent, Edwin Ginn.This is By Helen Fein; Paradigm the story of Ginn’s personal attempt to change bureaucratic approach with new models more in world attitudes regarding the dangers of arming Human Rights and Wrongs keeping with the information age economy. The for war by appealing to logic, reason, and common explains the persistence of End of Government explores the emerging con- sense. Ginn’s vigorous peace campaigning and crimes against humanity tours of this new, postbureaucratic state consid- organizational activities shed substantial light on since the Holocaust— ering: What forms will it take? Will it work in all important foreign and domestic issues in the including slavery, terror, and policy arenas? Will it serve democratic ideals decades leading up to the First World War. genocide. Using extended more effectively than did the bureaucratic state country descriptions and of the previous century? “This book presents little-known and analyses, the book goes “Elaine Kamarck shows us what we new material regarding a ‘leading’ fig- beyond case studies to ure in the late 19th and early 20th cen- explain such gross human can expect if we want to go beyond tury American peace movement—the rights violations in terms of the tired rhetoric of left and right to Boston educational book publisher and an integrated theory of life integrity, giving readers create a government capable of deal- originator of the World Peace Founda- vivid illustrations in addition to a theoretical frame- ing with all the new challenges of this tion, Edwin Ginn. It does something work. Distinguished author Helen Fein then asks new century. . . .” more, which is to exhibit nearly all of how we can arrest human wrongs and discusses —Al Gore, former Vice President the strategic and intellectual dilemmas whether democracy is the answer. She shows the of the United States that are faced by the internationalist positive links among human rights, freedom, and

Compiled by Susan Lynch, ISP program assistant and STPP web manager 14 A Strategy for Climate-Change Mitigation

arvard’s Richard Cooper, Henry Lee, means for compensating countries (which in 5. The specific challenge of accelerating the HJohn Holdren, and Robert Stavins turn will need to compensate landowners) for development and deployment of technology offer the following climate change mitigation reducing deforestation rates, increasing refor- for capturing and sequestering the carbon strategy (a consolidation of separate submis- estation and afforestation rates, and increasing dioxide from coal-burning power plants is sions). Cooper is the Maurits C. Boas Profes- carbon storage in agricultural soils. especially urgent and warrants a rapid ramping up of international and public-private partner- sor of International Economics, Lee is director 3. An international framework of continuing ships on demonstration projects to determine of the Belfer Center’s Environment and Nat- commitments, coordination, and cooperation the best approaches in all of the major coal- ural Resources Program, Holdren heads the is needed to replace the Kyoto Protocol when burning countries. China, where the most new Center’s Science, Technology, and Public Pol- it expires in 2012. Such a framework is needed coal-burning power plants are being built, icy Program, and Stavins directs the Environ- because the problem of climatic disruption is should be an early focus of such efforts. mental Economics Program. global in character and cannot be solved with- 1. The single most important measure to pro- out the participation of all the major emitting 6. Expansion of nuclear energy may be able vide incentives for reducing carbon-dioxide countries, developing as well as industrialized. to make a significant contribution to reducing emissions using currently available technolo- It must include targets and trajectories for carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sec- gies, as well as to encourage private-sector reaching them that are based on the best scien- tor, but achieving this potential will require research and development on improved tech- tific and technological information; it must be concerted efforts to expedite technically sound nologies that can be used for this purpose in —and must be seen to be—reasonable and fair and politically acceptable approaches to the future, is to charge a significant price for and economically efficient; and must include radioactive-waste management and to break those emissions. This could be done by means mitigation and adaptation. the link between nuclear energy and nuclear- weapon proliferation. of a carbon tax or by means of emissions caps 4. The importance of technological innova- implemented through tradable emissions per- tion for reducing the costs of emissions reduc- 7. There are many “win-win” approaches to mits (“cap and trade”). tions in the energy sector justifies significant climate-change mitigation and adaptation, 2. Better metrics and mechanisms must be increases in government investments in energy- meaning measures that bring significant eco- developed and implemented for reflecting the technology research, development, and nomic, energy security, public health, and/or value of reducing carbon emissions in the forest demonstration (ERD&D), as well as addi- ecological benefits beyond reducing climate- sector and the agriculture sector, not just in the tional incentives for private-sector ERD&D change damages. (See “Confronting Climate energy sector. Such approaches need to include beyond the price on carbon emissions (e.g., Change” at http://www.unfoundation expanded and extended tax credits). .org/SEG/.)

International Security is America’s leading journal of security affairs. It provides sophisticated analyses of contemporary security issues and discusses their conceptual and historical foundations. SPRING 2007 The journal is edited at the Belfer Center and published quarterly by the MIT Press. Questions may Vol. 31, No. 4 be directed to: [email protected]

From Prediction to Learning: Opening Compiled by International Security Staff. Experts’ Minds to Unfolding History Richard K. Herrmann and Jong Kun Choi “If there is consensus that learning is a good Osirak Redux? Assessing Israeli Capabilities Why Japan Will Not Go Nuclear (Yet): thing, it is pretty clear that expert learning in to Destroy Iranian Nuclear Facilities International and Domestic Constraints security affairs is not where it needs to be. . . . Whitney Raas and Austin Long on the Nuclearization of Japan Three factors common to much of the work Llewelyn Hughes in security studies contribute to this problem: “The Israeli Air Force . . . possesses the capa- the tendency to treat the intentions of other bility to destroy even well-hardened nuclear “While Japanese diplomatic rhetoric refers to actors as unknowable private information; . . . facilities in Iran.The operation would appear Japan’s experience as the only country to suffer a the inclination to believe that power provides to be no more risky than Israel’s 1981 attack nuclear attack during wartime as justification of a parsimonious explanation [for states’ on Iraq’s Osirak reactor, and it would provide its nonnuclear stance, Japanese political leaders actions]; and the penchant for engaging in ‘fac- at least as much benefit in terms of delaying have ensured that constitutional and other tor wars’ over which causal factors are most Iranian development of nuclear weapons.” domestic legal hurdles do not significantly con- important. Collectively, these three factors strain Japan from developing an independent produce overconfidence in hindsight and leave nuclear deterrent.” NATO’s International Security Role in the experts prisoners to their preconceptions.” Terrorist Era Renée de Nevers Getting Religion? The Puzzling Case of Islam The Winning Weapon? Rethinking Nuclear and Civil War Weapons in Light of Hiroshima “NATO plays, at best, a supportive role in U.S. Monica Duffy Toft Ward Wilson efforts to combat terrorism. . . . Many of the essential activities of [this] fight occur outside “The percentage of civil wars in which religion “The atomic bombing of Hiroshima on August NATO, through bilateral cooperation or loose has become a central issue has increased over 6, 1945, played virtually no role in winning the coalitions of the willing. . . . If NATO’s time. . . .These civil wars are much more war in the Pacific. . . . From the Japanese per- strongest members do not seek to address destructive than wars fought over other issues: spective, the Soviet invasion of Manchuria and their core security threats within the alliance, they result in more casualties and more noncom- other Japanese-held territory [on August 9] NATO may have difficulty sustaining its mili- batant deaths, and they last longer. . . . From 1940 . . . dramatically changed the strategic land- tary value.” to 2000, Islam was involved in 81 percent of all scape and left Japan with no option but to religious civil wars.” surrender unconditionally.”

15 Nonprofit Org. U. S. Postage PAID Nashua, NH Permit No. 375 The Robert and Renée Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs Graham Allison, Director 79 John F. Kennedy Street Cambridge, MA 02138 Tel: 617-495-1400 • Fax: 617-495-8963 www.belfercenter.org E-Mail: [email protected] Belfer Center Newsletter Editor: Sharon Wilke, Associate Director of Communications E-Mail: [email protected] Sasha Talcott, Director of Communications and Outreach E-Mail: [email protected] Sarah Bieging, Jennifer Bulkeley, Angelina Clarke, Richard Cooper, John Holdren, Henry Lee, Evelyn Hsieh, Susan Lynch, Beth Maclin, Robert Stavins, Amanda Swanson, and Belfer Center Mission:To provide leadership in advancing policy-relevant knowledge the ETIP staff contributed or assisted the communications about the most important challenges of international security and other critical issues office with this publication. where science, technology, environmental policy, and international affairs intersect.

Visit our website at www.belfercenter.org to learn more about the Belfer Center. BELFER IN BRIEF Applying Skills in New Orleans Networking Information For a week in March, 18 Kennedy School stu- Associate Professor Viktor Mayer-Schoen- Fellows on the Move dents traveled to New Orleans where they berger chaired the Salzburg Seminar on “New (continued from page 6) assisted the Broadmoor community in crunch- Information Networks” in March. Forty-five ing data to assess its recovery rate. The work fellows from 24 nations participated in the ses- Mustafa Kibaroglu (ISP 2004–05) was was part of the ongoing, multi-year Kennedy sion. Link: http://www.salzburgseminar.org named academic adviser to NATO’s Centre School “Broadmoor Project” designed to sup- /2007/index.cfm of Excellence Defence Against Terrorism in port redevelopment efforts by the neighbor- Exploring Future U.S.-China Relationship Turkey. hood’s proactive resident group. Belfer Center Environment and Natural Resources Program Belfer Center Senior Fellow Richard Rose- Assaf Moghadam (ISP 2004–06) com- Director Henry Lee, who serves as faculty crance coordinated a conference with col- pleted his dissertation at Tuft’s Fletcher chair of the project initiated by the Center’s leagues at the Chinese Academy of the Social School on the globalization of martyrdom. Doug Ahlers, noted that the collaboration is Sciences on developing policy recommenda- Jacqueline Newmyer (ISP) led a panel an opportunity for KSG students to put into tions regarding the future of the U.S.-China on “China and Human Rights” at a Wilton action the governance skills they learn in the relationship. Harvard participants at the Park conference in the UK. classroom. The recovery rate findings, prelimi- March conference in Hong Kong included Philip Potter (ISP) will discuss the rela- nary at press time, are “extraordinary,” accord- Belfer Center Director Graham Allison and tionship between international integration ing to Ahlers. International Security Program Director and conflict at a political science conference

N Steven Miller, along with Tony Saich, faculty at Nuffield College. A

M chair of the Kennedy School Asia Program, Z

T Scott Radnitz (ISP/ICP) will be a L and Ezra Vogel, former chair of Harvard’s East A

S fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center and T N Asia Research Center. Ernest May’s paper T A assistant professor at the Jackson School O M

C about whether the U.S. and China are des- Z S T of International Studies, University of L 7 0 A tined to become adversaries provided a launch- 0 S

2 Washington. T

© ing point for serious discussion. T

O Tammy Ann Smith (ISP/KSG Women C S

7 and Public Policy Program) has been 0 0 2 named assistant professor of sociology at © the State University of New York at Stony Left: Kennedy School student Daniel Radcliffe Brook. (MPA-ID) attends a community meeting in New Stephen Watts (ICP/ISP) has been Orleans with Broadmoor Association President appointed assistant professor of political LaToya Cantrell and other residents. science at UMass Amherst. Right: Doctoral candidate Anjali Adukia tours a gutted building in Broadmoor. 16