How Can We Stop Severe Climate Disruption? Summer 2007 www.belfercenter.org Holdren, Colleagues Call for Immediate Action on Climate Disruptions —by Beth Maclin, Communications Intern A L The report said the largest causes of climate L limate change is real, humans are E L change are the combustion of fossil fuels and O the largest cause of it, it’s already C “C . deforestation, both of which emit large quan- J doing harm, it’s accelerating, and we need to L E tities of heat-trapping carbon dioxide. The A do something serious about it, starting now,” H C concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has I John Holdren told United Nations Secretary M General Ban Ki-moon and the UN Commis- increased nearly 40 percent since the start of sion on Sustainable Development in February. the Industrial Revolution, the authors said. “If the build-up of greenhouse gases pushes the Resulting changes in climate are already global average surface temperature past 2–2.5 changing ecosystems around the globe, degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level, increasing the frequency and intensity of heat the danger of intolerable and unmanageable waves, droughts, and wildfires, and raising sea impacts of climate change on human well- level. Without intensified efforts both to being becomes very high.” reduce the pace and magnitude of climate change and to reduce the damages from the degree of change that cannot be avoided, The earth’s inhabitants harm far more severe than what has been have less than a decade to experienced so far is in store, Holdren said. The earth’s inhabitants have less than a slow and then begin to decade to slow and then begin to reverse cli- reverse climate change. mate change, Holdren believes. Critical steps, —John Holdren he says, include changing the world’s energy Call to Action: John Holdren delivers his system to emit less carbon dioxide and provid- presidential address at the annual AAAS meeting. ing incentives against deforestation. Scientists Holdren called on all scientists to “tithe” 10 Holdren, director of the Belfer Center’s and technologists have major roles to play in percent of their time to climate issues. Science, Technology, and Public Policy pro- bringing this about, Holdren said in his presi- gram, was one of 18 leading scientists from 11 dential address to the annual meeting of the disruption and advises policymakers in those countries who produced the report, “Con- American Association for the Advancement of areas. Stavins and the Harvard-wide Environ- fronting Climate Change: Avoiding the Science (AAAS). His call on scientists world- mental Economics Program focus on the role Unmanageable and Managing the Unavoid- wide to “tithe” 10 percent of their time and of economic instruments in addressing climate able,” at the request of the United Nations. effort to “working to increase the benefits of change and other environmental problems. R science and technology for the human condi- Holdren, Henry Lee, Kelly Sims Gallagher, E T N tion” drew a standing ovation. and their team in the Energy Technology E C “How much are we [the U.S.] investing in Innovation Project concentrate on the role of R E F L the new energy technologies that could help us advanced technologies in addressing the E B with this mitigation challenge? The answer is, climate-change and oil-dependence problems not much,” said Holdren at a Belfer Center climate change discussion in February with continued on page 7 ) 6 Robert Stavins, director of Harvard’s Environ- 0 0 2 ( mental Economics Program and member of . L the Belfer Center Board of Directors. A T Stavins noted that special attention must E N E S be paid to upcoming Congressional policies on N A climate change. “Fear of foreign oil depen- H . dency and love of domestically produced corn- J based ethanol . could lead to some terrible policies coming out of both the administration and the Congress,” he said. He recommends creation of a post-Kyoto international climate agreement that is “scientifically sound, eco- nomically rational, and politically pragmatic.” Hot Times: 2005 was the hottest year on record. Foreign Fuel Fear: Robert Stavins stresses a Holdren and Stavins are joined by a team The 13 hottest days occurred since 1990. (From point about foreign oil during a February of Belfer Center–affiliated scholars whose John Holdren’s AAAS powerpoint presentation: directors’ seminar with John Holdren (next to http://www.mediafire.com/?4yj5lo1he5m) Stavins) on challenges of climate change. research addresses different aspects of climate INSIDE: Blocking Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions; Spotlight—Joseph S. Nye R E T N E C R FROM THE DIRECTOR E F L E B n my course this spring on “Central Chal- have risen to the top of the national and inter- Ilenges of American Foreign Policy,” I have national agenda. I am proud of the role that students write strategic options memos to the researchers at the Belfer Center are playing in President or other key national security offi- identifying actions that can be taken to address cials in response to “mini-cases” that pose chal- these challenges. In his role as president of the Energy Czar: U.S. Secretary of Energy Sam lenges on the agenda today. One of these AAAS, John Holdren has been highly visible in Bodman (second from left) discusses energy mini-cases focused on energy and environmen- this debate. So too, Rob Stavins, who has and security challenges with Belfer Center tal policy and the tradeoffs among them. In recently finished a major project on post-Kyoto faculty and members of the International Council at a seminar in March. that hypothetical case (see Center website at architecture for international climate policy. http://bcsia.ksg.harvard.edu/research.cfm These topics have also been at the core of a ?program=CORE&pb_id=657), the student is series of brainstorming sessions at the Center working for an unnamed U.S. Senator who is this spring with Energy Secretary Sam Bod- Catastrophe. I am looking forward to returning a credible presidential candidate. The Senator man, and with other scholars and practitioners to China later in the summer for the publica- shares President Bush’s judgment about the such as Andrew Gould, the chief executive of tion of the Chinese edition of the book. perils of America’s “energy addiction” on the Schlumberger Limited, and Adnan Shihab- This spring, the Center welcomed four one hand, and is concerned about the poten- Eldin, former secretary general of OPEC. new fellows—Sally Fegan-Wyles, director of tial for serious climate disruption on the other. The Center is also undertaking a major the UN Development Group Office, The Senator is acutely aware of the high level new project on the Asian front led by Richard Surakiart Sathirathai, Thailand’s former Min- of baloney that infects most public debate Rosecrance. The question: Are the U.S. and ister of Foreign Affairs, Rami Khouri, journal- about these issues. Thus he/she asks the stu- China destined to be strategic adversaries? At ist and Middle East expert, and Bjorn dent as his/her policy advisor to recommend a an initial meeting of a working group consist- Fagersten, multilateral institutions scholar. We way forward on energy security issues and cli- ing of U.S. policy shapers and Chinese policy bid farewell to several key people who are mate change. influentials from the Chinese Academy of moving on in their careers: Managing the The background readings from this case Social Sciences, an agenda was initiated for a Atom’s Jeffrey Lewis to the New America drew heavily on the work of thoughtful leaders several-year project that will involve Track II Foundation, Intrastate Conflict’s Debbie West analyzing these issues, including John conversations aimed at developing a “shared to Simmons’ Nursing School, Research Associ- Holdren, Rob Stavins, John Deutch, Bill vision.” On route to that meeting in Hong ate Angelina Clarke to MIT’s Sloan School, Hogan, Henry Lee, Bill Clarke, Kelly Gal- Kong, I stopped in Seoul, Korea, for the and Research Associate and Micah Zenko to lagher, Dick Cooper, and others. These twin publication of the Korean edition of my book, our own Managing the Atom project. We wish issues of climate disruption and energy security Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable them well. Nye, Armitage Commission Plans Ways for U.S. to Regain Stature —by Evelyn Hsieh, Communications Assistant H C ccording to many polls, the United The commission will focus on strengthen- N Y L States has lost much of its global stature ing U.S. soft power through public diplomacy, Z I A L and influence in recent years. The Belfer Cen- foreign aid and humanitarian assistance, dia- ter’s Joseph S. Nye and former Deputy Secre- logue, trade, technology, and cultural and edu- tary of State Richard Armitage will lead a new cational exchanges. It will also form and assess Commission on Smart Power to address this strategies that address national security needs problem, as well as to assess how U.S. “hard” in tandem with image management of the and “soft” power instruments can be integrated United States. into a “smart” power strategy. H C Funded by the Starr Foundation and under N Y Develop a bipartisan L the auspices of the Center for Strategic and Z I L International Studies (CSIS) in Washington strategy . to help restore D.C., University Distinguished Service Profes- our standing in the world. sor Nye, who serves on the Belfer Center’s Board of Directors, and Armitage, president of —Joseph S. Nye Armitage International, will co-chair the com- mission, which includes 14 additional leaders The commission’s findings and recommen- from government, the military, NGOs, acade- dations regarding the role and image of the mia, the media, and the private sector.