MOWAT RESEARCH #184 | FEBRUARY 2019

confederation of tomorrow 2.0

Portraits 2017 Regional Differences in Ontario

BY KIRAN ALWANI & ANDREW PARKIN Acknowledgements

The Mowat Centre would like to thank a number of colleagues who provided advice on the methodology and the questionnaire, including The Portraits 2017 survey was conducted with Heather Marshall and Lucas Marshall (Mission Research), Keith Neuman support from Alain-G. Gagnon, holder of the Canada (Environics Institute), Alain-G. Gagnon (Université du Québec à Montréal), Research Chair in Quebec and Canadian Studies Bob Wolfe (School of Policy Studies, Queen’s University), Claire Durand and director at the Centre d’analyse politique: Constitution et Fédéralisme, based at UQAM. (Université de Montréal), and Peter Loewen (School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Toronto). The authors would also like to thank Khuong Truong, Brad Seward and Deepti Kapadia for conducting additional data analysis for this report, as well as Elaine Stam and Reuven Shlozberg for their roles in producing this report. Finally, we would like to thank the report’s anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions. Authors KIRAN ALWANI ANDREW PARKIN Policy Associate Director Kiran joined the Mowat Centre in October 2017, and has Andrew Parkin is the Director of the Mowat Centre. since contributed to a variety of social and economic policy Andrew has previously held a variety of positions projects. Previously, she has worked in a range of research including Director General of the Council of Ministers of and policy analysis roles, including with the Asia Pacific Education Canada (CMEC), Associate Executive Director Foundation of Canada, the Canada-ASEAN Business and Director of Research and Program Development Council, and the Conference Board of Canada. Prior to at the Canada Millennium Scholarship Foundation, and her Master’s, Kiran worked in communications, public Co-Director of the Centre for Research and Information engagement, and development at the Institute for Canadian on Canada. Citizenship. She holds a Master of Public Policy and Global Affairs degree from the University of British Columbia.

The Portraits 2017 series analyzes survey data from a comprehensive study of public opinion in Ontario and Quebec. The survey focused on a wide range of subjects, including federalism, the economy, social programs, international trade, immigration and diversity, and relations with Indigenous peoples. The data provides valuable new evidence about whether and how citizens’ attitudes towards one another, to the federation and to Canada are evolving at a time of considerable change and uncertainty in the wider global political context.

MOWATCENTRE.CA @MOWATCENTRE 439 UNIVERSITY AVENUE The Mowat Centre is an independent public policy think tank SUITE 2200, TORONTO, ON located at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at M5G 1Y8 CANADA the University of Toronto. The Mowat Centre is Ontario’s non-partisan, evidence-based voice on public policy. It undertakes collaborative applied policy research, proposes innovative research-driven recommendations, and engages in public dialogue on Canada’s most important national issues. ©2019 ISBN 978-1-77259-085-2 Contents

Introduction 1

Values 5

Economic Outlook 6

International Trade 8

The Impact of Governments 11

Immigration and Diversity 12

Reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples 16

Policy Priorities 17

Attachment 19

Conclusion 21

Appendix: Methodology 23 Given the varying realities of the different regions of the province, it is important to ask whether there is a regional divide in the opinions of Ontarians on economic and social issues. PORTRAITS 2017: REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN ONTARIO PORTRAITS 4 OntarioMinistryofFinance(2018) “ChapterII:EconomicOutlook.”InOntarioOutlook andFiscalReview publications/172_ADO_population.pdf. 3 Andrew Parkin(2018)“ADifferent Ontario:Population.”MowatCentre. https://mowatcentre.ca/wp-content/uploads/ demographics/census/cenhi16-1.html. 2 OntarioMinistryofFinance(2017)“2016CensusHighlights:Factsheet 1.”https://www publications/172_ADO_population.pdf. 1 Andrew Parkin(2018)“ADifferent Ontario:Population.”MowatCentre. https://mowatcentre.ca/wp-content/uploads/ population identifiesasvisibleminorities, minorities makeuponlyaboutfourper For instance,while51.4percentoftheToronto CensusMetropolitan Area (CMA) The make-upoftheOntariopopulationalsovaries greatly from oneregion toanother. manufacturing jobs. Area haveseensharpdeclines inemploymentincome,mainlyduetothelossof Ontario andinthearcsome citiesinSouthwestern surrounding theGreater Toronto Ontariosawitsemploymentdeclineby23,600netjobs. Northern than 93percentofthenewjobscreated intheprovince. Duringthesametimeperiod, From 2003to2017,theGreater Toronto Area andCentralOntarioaccounted formore Ontario’s regions havehaddifferent experiencesofemploymentandincomegrowth. currently hasmore children (age14andunder)thanseniors. than others.TheGreater Toronto Area istheonlyoneofprovince’s sixregions that of populationagingare alsostarklyuneven,withsmallercommunitiesagingfaster Southwest andEasthaveexperiencedadeclineintheirpopulations. this paceandsomehardly grew atall. the fastestgrowth at5.9percent,whilesmallercommunities grew atlessthanhalf areas —Toronto, Ottawa,HamiltonandKitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge —experienced years. Between2011and2016,thepopulationofOntario’s fourlargest metropolitan economic growth across theregions, forinstance,havevariedsignificantlyoverthe This diversitymeansthatnotworegions oftheprovince are alike.Populationand financial services. its economy, combiningresource extraction,high-techmanufacturingandglobalized floodplain, toitspeople,withoriginsspanningevery region andculture oftheglobe,to from lowlands to therocky thenorthern ShieldtotheGreat Lakes-St.Lawrence terms ofterritory. Ontario isCanada’s largest province intermsofpopulation,andthesecondlargest in Introduction content/uploads/publications/173_ADO_income_and_employment.pdf. 5 Andrew Parkin(2018)“ADifferent Ontario:Income&Employment.” MowatCentre. https://mowatcentre.ca/wp- https://www.fin.gov.on.ca/fallstatement/2018/chapter-2.html. Everyfacetoftheprovince isdiverse,from itslandscape,ranging 5

1 Infact,somecensusdivisionsintheNorth, 3 .fin.gov.on.ca/en/economy/ 4 Atthesametime, 2 The patterns Thepatterns .

1 | THE MOWAT CENTRE 2 | PORTRAITS 2017: REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN ONTARIO 10 Samplesizesare unweighted. contributors/2018/08/03/growing-disconnect-between-urban-and-rural-canada.html. Disconnect betweenUrbanandRural Canada,”TheToronto Star(August3,2018),https://www.thestar.com/opinion/ ipolitics.ca/2019/01/10/urban-and-rural-canada-may-be-closer-than-we-think/ andSeanSpeer(2018)“Growing Jamieson (2019)“UrbanandRuralCanadaMaybeCloserthanWe Think,”iPolitics(January10,2019),https:// 9 Thisquestionrecently hasbeenexplored atthenationallevelbyothersincluding:Michael AdamsandDavid demographics/census/cenhi16-12.html. 8 OntarioMinistryofFinance(2017)“2016CensusHighlights:Factsheet 12.”https://www demographics/census/cenhi16-8.html. 7 OntarioMinistryofFinance(2017)“2016CensusHighlights:Factsheet 8.”https://www demographics/census/cenhi16-9.html. 6 OntarioMinistryofFinance(2017)“2016CensusHighlights:Factsheet 9.”https://www » » » » » » » » across thefollowingeight regions: (n=2,000). Thissampleallowsthe survey inthisreport, whichhadanunusuallylarge samplesizefortheprovince To explore this,weanalyzedatafrom theMowat Centre’s Lake. of OntarianslivinginMississaugaorHamiltonastheyare ofthoseinBellevilleorElliott regions ofOntario,itwouldbeunwisetoassumethattheirfigures are as representative rural andremote regions. Whilepollsterstypicallyreport aggregated opinionsacross all between thefastergrowing andmore diverseurbanregions, andtheprovince’s more issues. whether there isaregional divideintheopinionsofOntariansoneconomicandsocial Given thevaryingrealities ofthedifferent regions oftheprovince, itisimportanttoask university degree residing inurbanareas suchasOttawa,Toronto andGuelph. attainment alsovariesamongregions, withthehighestproportion ofadultswitha (70.2%) ofOntario’s immigrantpopulationresides intheToronto CMA. cent ofthepopulationsGreater Sudbury, ThunderBayandBelleville. » » » » » » » » Southwest (n=242) North (n=253) East (n=245) 401 Corridor(n=265) Hamilton-Niagara region (n=250) Ottawa Belt(n=246) Greater Toronto Area (GTA) 905(n=261) Toronto 416(n=234) 9 Ofparticularinterest isthequestionofwhetherthere are significantdifferences Portraits 2017 10

studytolookatopinionsinOntario Portraits 2017 .fin.gov.on.ca/en/economy/ .fin.gov.on.ca/en/economy/ .fin.gov.on.ca/en/economy/ 7 Educational 6 Themajority publicopinion 8

percentage points. 11 Themargin oferror foreachregional sampleisapproximately plusorminus6 opinions ontheseissues. the report explores whetherthere isanurban-ruraldividein andpolicypriorities.Inparticular,impact ofgovernment trade,relationsinternational withIndigenouspeoples,the related totheeconomy, immigrationanddiversity, Ontarians from different regions differacross keyissues This report explores whetherand howtheopinionsof between regions shouldbedisregarded. as themargin oferror islarger, compared across theseeightregions, withthecaveatthat, relatively small,are large enoughtoallowforresults tobe The regional sub-samples ofaround 250respondents, while Source: MissionResearch Ontario regions referred tointhisstudy FIGURE 1 Southwest (MostlyRural) GTA 905(Urban) HamiltonNiagara (MostlyUrban) Toronto 416(Urban) 11 relatively smalldifferences 401 Corridor(MostlyUrban) North (MostlyRural) East (MostlyRural) Ottawa elt(MostlyUrban)

3 | THE MOWAT CENTRE Regional Differences in Ontario Toronto as an Outlier

Other Regions LEGEND Toronto of Ontario Outlier

Views on Policy Issues Immigration Feelings on accepting Reconciliation more immigrants from Canada has not gone conflict areas far enough in promoting 2- reconciliation with 47 Indigenous peoples E HOLD Healthcare 4- Spending more on 7 - healthcare is a high priority 4

E HOLD NOT Taxes - Cutting taxes is a 1 high priority 47- Ineuality Reducing inequality 4- between the rich and the 4 poor is a high priority Trust in Environment - Addressing climate Institutions change is a high priority 44 Feel local police are treating non-whites as fairly as whites Relations with the US Improving Canada-US 22 1- 4- relations is a high 0 priority 2

Feel government has a negative impact on people’s lives

Attachment 40- 47- Feel very attached to 4 0 their city/town/region 4 4 | PORTRAITS 2017: REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN ONTARIO 4 | PORTRAITS rural areas Canadians basicallyhavethesamevaluesregardless ofwhethertheyliveinurbanor Q: Howmuchdoyouagree ordisagree witheachofthefollowingstatements? urban 905region resemble thoseinthemore ruralEast. same asthoseinthemore built-uparea from HamiltontoNiagara.Similarly, viewsinthe and ruralOntariansanother. Views intheNorthofprovince are more orlessthe on thisquestion–meaningthatitisnotthecaseurbanOntariansholdoneview, It isinteresting tonote,however, thatthere isnoparticularurban-ruraldivideinopinions urban andruralresidents havethesamevalues. time, between30and42percentofOntarians,dependingontheirregion, agree that in theNorthofprovince to68percentamongthoseintheSouthwest.Atsame of theprovince disagree, withdisagreement rangingbetween55percentamongthose values regardless ofwhethertheyliveinurbanorruralareas.” Amajorityineveryregion they agree ordisagree withthestatementthat“Canadiansbasicallyhavesame was putdirectly tothesurveyrespondents. The questionofwhethercitizensindifferent regions holddifferent valuesisonethat Values Hamilton-Niagara Hamilton-Niagara FIGURE 2 401 Corridor T Ottawa Belt oronto 416 Southwest GT Ontario A North East 905 0% 10% 20% 30% Portraits 2017 30% 31% 35% 35% 36% 36% 40% 39% 40% 42% askedOntarianswhether 50% 55% 56% Disagree 60% 60% 62% 62% 62% 64% 65% Agree 68% 70%

5 | THE MOWAT CENTRE 6 | PORTRAITS 2017: REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN ONTARIO (22%) andtheOttawaBelt (23%). economy isdoingworse,compared toonlyoneinfive residents ofGTA (21%), Toronto 42 percentofresidents intheEastand46percentNorthsaythattheirregion’s just 14percentofthoseintheNorthand19 centofthoseintheEast.Similarly, the OttawaBeltsaythattheircityorregion’s economyisdoingbetter, compared with – 45percentofthoseinthe401Corridor, and34percentofthoseinToronto and Residents inurbancentres have amore positiveoutlook compared toruralresidents The findingsare similarwith respect totheperformance ofthecityor regional economy. same, orworse?Canada’s nationaleconomy Q: Overthepastfiveyears,wouldyousayfollowingare doingbetter, aboutthe national economyisdoingworse,compared withjust24percentinToronto. residents ofHamilton-Niagara(38%),East(40%)andtheNorth(42%)saythat per centofthepopulationNorthfeelssameway. Conversely, aboutfourinten the pastfiveyears,only29percentofpopulationHamilton-Niagaraand30 and theOttawaBelt(41%)saythatnationaleconomyhasbeendoingbetterover based onregion. Whilefourintenresidents ofToronto (40%),the401Corridor(40%) The perceptions ofOntariansabouttheperformancenationaleconomyvary Economic Outlook National Economy National Economy FIGURES 3&4 is DoingWorse is DoingBetter WhoSay WhoSay

Hamilton-Niagara

T oronto 416 29% 24%

GT North

A 30%

905 29%

Ontario

East 33% 32%

Ottawa Belt GT A

905 33% 33%

401 Corridor Southwest 34% 33%

Southwest Ontario 36% 36%

Hamilton-Niagara

T oronto 416 40% 38%

401 Corridor 40%

East 40%

Ottawa Belt 41%

North 42% finding orkeepingastable,full-timejob? are Q: Howconcerned youaboutyourselforamemberofyourimmediatefamily same, orworse?Theeconomyinthecityregion where youlive Q: Overthepastfiveyears,wouldyousayfollowingare doingbetter, aboutthe keeping theirownjobs. their region’s economyisdoingworse,are outofallregions theleastconcerned about job security. Conversely, respondents intheNorth,whoare themostlikelytosaythat say thattheirregion’s economyisdoingworse,are abouttheirown themostconcerned Remarkably, therespondents inthe905region oftheGTA, whoare theleastlikelyto or amemberoftheirimmediatefamilyfindingkeepingstable,full-timejob. of employment.AmajorityOntariansineachregion are aboutthemselves concerned Ontarians across allregions seemtobeworriedabouttheirfuture prospects interms While urbanpopulationsgenerallyhaveamore positiveassessmentoftheeconomy, FIGURE 7 FIGURES 5&6 WhoSayTheir WhoSayTheir City orRegions City orRegions Hamilton-Niagara Doing Worse Doing Better Economy is Economy is 401 Corridor T Ottawa Belt oronto 416 Southwest GT Ontario A North East 905

GT A North

905 14% 21%

T oronto 416

East 19% 22%

Ottawa Belt

57% Southwest 58% 58% 61% 61% 62% 63% 63% 26% 65% 23%

Hamilton-Niagara

401 Corridor 27% 27%

Ontario Ontario 31% 27%

Hamilton-Niagara

GT A 905 31% 30%

Ottawa Belt Southwest Concerned 34% 34% 41% 40% 42% 37% 38% 36% 35% 35%

32% T oronto 416 34% East 42% Not Concerned

401 Corridor

North 45% 46%

7 | THE MOWAT CENTRE 8 | PORTRAITS 2017: REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN ONTARIO community Q: Gap(inpoints)between%sayingtradebenefits Canadaandtradebenefitslocal tradeagreements?either waybyinternational Your localcommunity Q: Howmuchdoyouthinkeachofthefollowingbenefits,isharmed,ornotaffected outweighs theproportion sayingtheyare harmful). the proportion sayingthat tradeagreements are beneficialtotheirlocalcommunities predominantly ruralregions oftheNorth,SouthwestandEast(thoughineveryregion, a great dealoralittle,theproportion holdingthisviewdipsbelow50percentinthe tradeagreementsNiagara saythatinternational benefittheirlocalcommunitieseither and suburbanareas suchasToronto, the905region, the401CorridorandHamilton- tradeagreementsinternational benefitlocalcommunities.Whilemajoritiesinurban There are, however, someregional differences inopiniononthequestionofwhether tradeagreementssay thatinternational benefitCanadaandtheprovince. Ontarians supportCanadanegotiatingnewtradeagreements withothercountriesand trade.AcrossOntarians havefavourableviewsofinternational allregions, amajorityof International Trade FIGURE 9 FIGURE 8 Hamilton-Niagara Hamilton-Niagara 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0% 5% 401 Corridor T Ottawa Belt oronto 416 Southwest GT Ontario 14% A North East 905

401 Corridor 16%

T oronto 416 40% 41% 16% 45% 50% 51% 52% 52% 54% 60%

GT A

905 18%

Ontario 20%

Ottawa Belt Benefits 31% 30% 26% 22% 17% 23% 26% 24% 28% Harmed 17%

North 25% Not 13% 17% 18% 19% 13% Af 1 9% 12% 1% fected East 28% 9% Don't Know 16% 14% 13% Southwest 13% 13% 12% 1 1 1 1% 1% 1% 29% There are, however, some regional differences in opinion on the question of whether international trade agreements benefit local communities.

This pattern can also be illustrated by looking at the gap between the proportion of respondents saying that international trade agreements benefit Canada, and the proportion saying trade benefits their local community. This gap is smaller in Hamilton-Niagara, the 401 Corridor and Toronto, but larger in the Northern, Eastern and Southwestern regions of the province (see Figure 9). It is possible that these differences in opinion regarding the impact of trade on local communities are based on the different underlying economic conditions of each region, including the extent to which they were affected by the implementation of free trade agreements in the late 1980s and early 1990s, or hit by and have subsequently recovered from the last economic recession. 9 | THE MOWAT CENTRE 9 | THE MOWAT 10 | PORTRAITS 2017: REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN ONTARIO About four in ten About four in ten and the 401 Corridor. and the 401 Corridor. Hamilton-Niagara four in both fewer than one in compared to on people’s lives, have a positive impact say that governments and the Ottawa Belt residents of Toronto

people’s lives. don’t A positiveimpact,anegativeorgovernments havemuchimpactonmost haveonpeople’sQ: Thesedays,whatkindofimpactdoyouthinkgovernments lives? impactleastfavourably.those whoviewgovernments’ North, mostlyurbanregions suchasHamilton-Niagara andthe401Corridorare among quite thatsimpleas,alongwiththemostlyruralregions suchastheSouthwestand least likelytosaythattheyimpactthemnegatively. Havingsaidthis,thesituationis not region are impactpeoplepositivelyandthe themostlikelytosaythatgovernments rural areas oftheprovince, sinceToronto, itssurrounding 905region, andtheOttawa These results are suggestiveofaslightdifference ofopinionbetweentheurbanand impact ontheirlives. people from everyotherregion are more haveanegative likelytosaythatgovernments haveapositiveimpact(41%)thannegativeone(33%)– likely tosaythatgovernments It isinteresting tonotethat,withtheexceptionofToronto –where peopleare more Toronto. have anegativeimpactonpeople’s lives,compared withonlyoneinthree (33%)in the Southwest,North,401Corridor, Hamilton-Niagaraand Eastsaythatgovernments four (22%)inbothHamilton-Niagaraandthe401Corridor. Aboutsixintenresidents of haveapositiveimpactonpeople’sgovernments lives,compared tofewerthanonein About fourintenresidents ofToronto (41%)andtheOttawaBelt(37%)saythat impact theirlives. There are someregional differences intheviewsofOntariansonhowgovernments The Impact of Governments Governments Havea Governments Havea Negative Impacton Positive Impacton FIGURES 10&11 People's Lives People's Lives % WhoSay % WhoSay

T oronto 416 Southwest 41% 60%

Ottawa Belt

North 37% 60%

401 Corridor GT

A 30%

59% 905

Hamilton-Niagara

Ontario 30% 57%

East 26%

East 56%

Southwest

Ontario 24% 49%

Ottawa Belt North 23% 47%

Hamilton-Niagara

GT

A 22%

905 47%

401 Corridor T oronto 416 22% 33%

11 | THE MOWAT CENTRE 12 | PORTRAITS 2017: REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN ONTARIO the samenumberasweacceptnow? Q: DoyouthinkCanadashouldacceptmore immigrants,fewerorabout the citystandsoutas onlyregion oftheprovince where residents are more likely an exception.Notonlyis thedisagreement withthisstatementlowerinToronto, but immigrants from thosepartsoftheworldthatare experiencingconflict,but Toronto is in tworesidents ofmostOntarioregions disagree thatCanadashouldacceptmore immigrants from thosepartsoftheworldthatare experiencingconflict.Aboutone issimilarwhenOntariansareThe pattern askedspecificallyaboutacceptingmore the North(11%)andSouthwest(10%). to saythatCanadashouldacceptmore immigrants,compared totheruralregions of such astheOttawaBelt(19%),Toronto (19%)andGTA (18%)are somewhatmore likely While there are nostarkurban-ruraldifferences inopinion,populationsurbancentres 49%). continue toacceptthesamenumberofimmigrantsthatitacceptsnowishigher(at should acceptfewerimmigrantsislower(at30%),andthatsayingCanada isToronto,The exceptiontothispattern where theproportion sayingthatCanada immigrants (seeFigure 12). immigration levels,whileanother40percentsaythatthecountryshouldacceptfewer About 40percentofOntariansinallregions saythatCanadashouldmaintaincurrent province onwhetherCanadashouldincrease, decrease ormaintainimmigrationlevels. With oneexception,there isnosignificant regional divergence inviewsacross the Immigration and Diversity FIGURE 12 16% Ontario 38% 43% 19% Ottawa Belt 34% 44% 17% East 42% 36% 18% GT 40% A 905 40% 19% T oronto 416 30% 49% Hamilton-Niagara 13% 42% 39% 10% Southwest 46% About thesamenumberasweacceptnow Fewer immigrants More immigrants 43% 15% 401 Corridor 36% 45% 1 1% North 45% 39% https://mowatcentre.ca/a-different-ontario-immigration/ demographics/census/cenhi16-8.html 13 OntarioMinistryofFinance(2017) “2016CensusHighlights:Factsheet8.” 12 Thesmalldifference inlevelsofagreement anddisagreement inthe401 Corridorisnotstatisticallysignificant. regions, suchasthe905region andtheNorth. is worthnoting,then,butalsothesimilarityofopinions betweenapparently dissimilar North). Itisnotjustthedifference ofopinionin Toronto ontheissueofimmigrationthat the 905region oftheGTA), asthosefrom regions withfarfewerimmigrants(suchas the as muchfrom thoseinotherurbanareas withsignificant immigrantpopulations(notably immigration iscausingtoomanychangesinCanadian society–viewsinToronto differ – whetherCanadashouldacceptmore immigrantsfrom conflictzones,andwhether immigrants livinginthecityseemstoosimplistic.Ontwoquestionsjustdiscussed Yet theideathatattitudesinToronto are asimpleby-product ofthegreater numberof than 75percentofthenewimmigrantsinprovince settleintheToronto CMA. and about70percentofOntario’s overallimmigrantpopulationlivesinToronto. More population isforeign-born. About36percentofCanada’s overallimmigrantpopulation the highestproportion offoreign-born individualsinthecountry–47percentof These results are perhapsnotsurprising,giventhattheToronto CMAishometo experiencing majorconflicts ought tobeacceptingmore immigrantsfrom those partsoftheworldwhichare Q: Howmuchdoyouagree ordisagree witheachofthefollowingstatements?Canada in whichtheproportion disagreeing isgreater thantheproportion agreeing. around 40percentinmostotherregions), butToronto istheonlyregion intheprovince Torontonians more likelytodisagree withthisstatement (at52percent, compared with asked ifimmigrationiscausingtoomanychangesinCanadiansociety. Not onlyare to agree (56%)thantodisagree (39%). FIGURE 13 Hamilton-Niagara 401 Corridor T Ottawa Belt oronto 416 Southwest GT Ontario A North East 905 35% 39% 39% 40% 41% 42% ; seealso:Andrew Parkin(2019)“ADifferent Ontario:Immigration.” MowatCentre. 44% 48% 56% 12 ThesamesituationholdswhenOntariansare . https://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/economy/ 58% 52% 55% 50% 56% 50% 55% 47% Agree 39% Disagree Don't Know 13 9% 9% 7% 6% 6%

5% 4% 4% 3%

13 | THE MOWAT CENTRE Toronto also stands out on other questions related to the province’s diversity. For instance, a majority of residents in each region of the province say that they feel comfortable hearing languages other than English or French being spoken on the streets of Canada. While the proportion saying they are very or somewhat comfortable is about two-thirds in regions outside Toronto, within the province’s largest city, it reaches 81 per cent.

Additionally, the Portraits 2017 survey asked Ontarians whether they agree or disagree with the notion that, these days, police in their community treat non-whites as fairly as they treat whites.14 About 50 per cent or more Ontarians in most regions believe that police in their communities treat non-whites and whites equally. The rural regions of Southwest (62%), East (56%) and North (53%) are the most likely to believe this. But this sentiment is not shared by a majority of Torontonians – only 39 per cent agree, and 46 per cent disagree. In what is by now a familiar pattern, Toronto is the only region in the province where the proportion saying that the police in their community do not treat non-whites and whites in the same manner is greater than the proportion that says they do. Notably, this is not due to the larger non-white population of the city, as Torontonians who identify as “white” are also more likely to disagree than to agree that the police treats whites and non-whites the same.

14 Multiple studies have found that police brutality and discrimination disproportionately affect black and Indigenous populations. See:http:// www.ohrc.on.ca/en/news_centre/ohrc-interim-report-toronto-police- service-inquiry-shows-disturbing-results, https://newsinteractives. cbc.ca/longform-custom/deadly-force, https://www.cbc.ca/news/ canada/toronto/police-deaths-blacks-data-1.4599215 and https:// news.vice.com/en_ca/article/d35eyq/black-and-indigenous-people-are-

14 | PORTRAITS 2017: REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN ONTARIO 14 | PORTRAITS overrepresented-in-canadas-weed-arrests. with Indigenous with Indigenous each region say each region say reconciliation reconciliation A plurality of A plurality of in promoting in promoting has not gone has not gone Ontarians in Ontarians in that Canada that Canada far enough far enough peoples. peoples.

1515 | | THE THE MOWAT MOWAT CENTRE CENTRE 16 | PORTRAITS 2017: REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN ONTARIO which ismostly urban. in Toronto, the region thatleastresembles Toronto on Indigenous issuesisHamilton-Niagara, while viewsintheNorthare sometimesnotablydifferent thanthose example, For opinion. in often assupportive.Furthermore, there isnoevidenceofadistincturban-ruraldifference that isthemostsupportive ofIndigenouspeoples,residents of severalotherregions are WhileTorontoThat said,itishard anoverallpattern. todiscern isconsistently theregion » » » » There are someregional differences inopinion regarding relations withIndigenouspeoples. Indigenous Peoples Reconciliation with » » » » in otherregions oftheprovince. (32%) Torontonians holdsthisview, compared withbetweenoneinfiveandfour reconciliation to saythatpromoting are alsothemostlikely Residents ofToronto North (32%). Southwest (29%),andthe Niagara (29%),the twice ashighinHamilton- this proportion isabout with Indigenouspeoples, to promote reconciliation has gonetoofarintrying Toronto saythatCanada cent oftheresidents of (53%). Whileonly15per reconciliation withIndigenous peoples,theviewismore widelyshared inToronto While apluralityineveryregion saythatCanadahasnotgonefarenoughinpromoting and inHamilton-Niagara(64%). are themostlikelytoagree. Agreement isthelowestamongstresidents ofOttawaBelt(66%) remain strong. ResidentsofToronto (78%),the401Corridor(74%),and905region (70%) Most Ontariansagree thatitisbeneficialtoallCanadiansthecultures ofIndigenouspeoples cent ofthoseinHamilton-Niagara. Corridor (70%).Thiscompares with58percentofrespondents intheNorth,and55per widely heldamongtheresidents ofToronto (74%),theOttawaBelt(74%)and401 peoples inCanadaisworsethanthesituationofotherCanadians,viewmost While amajorityofOntariansfrom allregions recognize thatthesituationofIndigenous with IndigenouspeoplesinCanadashouldbea highpriority. Oneinthree reconciliation withIndigenous (Aboriginal)peoples? far orhavetheynotgoneenoughintryingtopromote inCanadagonetoo Q: Inyouropinion,havegovernments Hamilton-Niagara FIGURE 14 401 Corridor T Ottawa Belt oronto 416 Southwest GT Ontario A North East 905 15% 18% 23% 24% 25% 28% 29% 29% 32%

Gone toofar 42% 32% 53% 44% Not gonefarenough 37% 42% 47% 44% 40% Neither/about right 32% 31% 25% 23% 26% 23% 22% 23% 23% Don't know 1 1% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 6% 5% 4% Percentage ofRespondents whoRankedItemasaHighPriority think eachofthefollowingshouldbe? Q: Whenitcomestohelpingthecountryworkbetter, howmuchofaprioritydoyou inequality, andnegotiatingnewtradeagreements. no urban-ruralsplit–holdsformanyotheritems,suchaseducationspending,reducing more onhealthcare isahighpriority. –thatofmodestvariationsand Thesamepattern same proportion ofurban Torontonians Ontarianssaythatspending andruralEastern amount toasignificantdisagreement. Moreover, there isnourban-ruralsplit–aboutthe regions, andedgesabove60percentintheOttawaBelt,butthesevariationsdonot more onhealthcare isahighpriority. Thisfigure dipsafewpointslowerinsome at best(seeFigure 15).Forinstance,overall57percentofOntarianssaythatspending For mostofthemainitems,scaleregional differences inopinionismoderate there are significant regional (orurban-rural) differences inopinionsamongOntarians. together, theresults provide considerableinsightintothequestionofwhetheror not be ahigh,mediumorlowpriorityintermsofhelpingthecountryworkbetter. Taken The Policy Priorities Giving more moneytobigcities Cutting taxes Addressing climatechange Spending more onmilitary Improving Canada/USrelations Being economicallycompetitive peoples Reconciling withIndigenous Spending more onhealthcare training Spending more oneducation/ agreements trade New international rich andpoor Reducing inequalitybetweenthe governments the federaltoprovincial Transferring more powersfrom FIGURE 15 Portraits 2017 Priority

surveyaskedOntarianstorank12itemsonwhethereachshould 40 43 14 22 49 26 57 40 40 47 Average Ontario

9 8 40 41 24 20 48 25 65 37 33 47 Belt Ottawa

7 6 42 40 18 22 57 22 56 39 39 47 East

5 5 39 39 20 49 22 54 38 42 43 905 GTA

8 9 9

25 31 53 10 22 45 32 57 45 40 49 11 416 Toronto Niagara

55 36 14 18 47 21 60 42 40 51

5 8 Hamilton- 44 41 18 30 53 28 55 36 42 45 Southwest

3 7 44 42 16 20 51 27 55 41 40 50 Corridor 401 2 7

42 44 18 27 46 24 54 46 38 55 North

1 9

lowest (in points) (in lowest highest and the the and highest

24 24 17 15 12 12 11 11 10

9 8 6 the between Difference Difference

17 | THE MOWAT CENTRE On several other items, however, bigger differences emerge. One of these is spending more on the military, where the Ottawa Belt stands out as an outlier – while across the province, relatively few see this as a high priority, the proportion is higher in and around Ottawa, perhaps because of a larger number of people in the national capital region who have a professional or personal connection with the armed forces.

The three items marked by the largest regional differences, however, are all ones where Toronto is the outlier – addressing climate change, cutting taxes and giving more money to big cities. It is not surprising, of course, to find that the proportion of Torontonians prioritizing more money for big cities, while only 25 per cent, far outweighs the negligible one per cent in the province’s North. But what stands out on the other two items is not the split between the province’s metropolis and its rural or remote areas, but rather the split between Toronto and its urban neighbours. While Torontonians are the most likely to prioritize addressing climate change (53%), the 905 region (39%) and Hamilton-Niagara (36%) are the least likely. In the case of cutting taxes, the biggest difference is between the urban Torontonians, only 31% of whom rank it as a high priority, compared to the majority of the residents of Hamilton-Niagara (55%).

In short, then, two observations can be made. First, in the case of many policy priorities, there is a risk of overstating the differences in opinion among regions, since the variations in opinions on one side of the provincial average to the other are relatively modest. Second, while for some items Toronto stands out as either the most or the least supportive, it would be a mistake to read this as an urban-rural cleavage in the province, since some of the biggest differences are between Toronto and other urban areas. 18 | PORTRAITS 2017: REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN ONTARIO 18 | PORTRAITS Q: Howattacheddoyoufeeltoeachofthefollowing?Your city, townorregion Ontario. local communityisnotinfactadistinctly“smalltown”phenomenoncontemporary rural East.Amongotherthings,thissuggeststhatthesenseofattachmentto compared to42percentintheneighbouring905region and40percentinthemore than oneintwo(54%)Torontonians saythattheyfeelveryattached totheircity, attached totheircity, townorregion, thissentimentisthestrongest inToronto. More The othernoteworthyfindingisthat,whileOntariansinall regions saythattheyfeel communities. very large difference, itisnonetheless agoodillustrationofOntarians’tiestotheirlocal their city, townorregion, compared with41percentfortheprovince. Whilethisisnota or region thantotheprovince. Overall,46percentsaythattheyare veryattachedto the strength ofattachment isslightlyhigherinthecaseofattachmenttocity, town province (85%)astheyare totheircity, townorregion (83%).Interestingly, however, Ontarians are justaslikelytosaythattheyfeelveryorsomewhatattachedthe that theyfeelveryorsomewhatattachedtothecountry. per centofOntarianssaythattheyfeelveryattachedtoCanada,and93 than totheirprovince ortotheircity, townorregion. Onaverage,across allregions, 73 Not surprisingly, Ontariansinallregions are muchmore strongly attachedtoCanada and totheircity, townorregion. Finally, thesurveyaskedOntarianshowattachedtheyfeeltoCanada,province Attachment Hamilton-Niagara FIGURE 16 401 Corridor T Ottawa Belt oronto 416 Southwest GT Ontario A North East 905 40% 41% 42% V ery 46% 46% 48% 48% 49% Attached 54% Somewhat

Attached Not V 36% ery 42% 44% Attached 36% 37% 33% 33% 37% 33% Not At All Attached 10% 18% 12% 13% 13% 13% 1 10% 1% 9% Don't know 7% 3% 6% 4% 5% 2% 5% 4% 4% 1% 2% 1% 1%

19 | THE MOWAT CENTRE On many questions related to public policy choices, the differences in preferences across the province’s regions are either relatively modest - meaning that most regions find themselves on the same side of an issue to one degree or another - or else the differences that do exist are not reducible to ones between big cities and small towns. 20 | PORTRAITS 2017: REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN ONTARIO 20 | PORTRAITS that shapetheseopinions intheinnermetropolitan 416area are somewhatunique those intheotherregions of the province suggeststhatthefactorsandexperiences question). Thefrequency with whichopinionsinToronto standsomewhat apartfrom only region where agreement outweighsdisagreement (orviceversa,dependingonthe region thatisthefurthesttoonesideofopinionspectrum,butitsometimes the country’s bigcities.Aswe haveseen,onanumberofquestions,notonlyisToronto the change, taxes,and–leastsurprisinglytheneed totransfermore resources tothe of anoutlier. Thisisespeciallynoticeableonissuessuchasimmigration,climate unto itselfintermsofpublicopinionOntario– thatistosay, itisfrequently somewhat One importantconclusionofthisstudy, then,isthatToronto inmanywaysisaregion between themostlyurbanandruralareas oftheprovince, notthedifferences. of Toronto, whatismoststrikingthe similarityofattitudesandpolicypreferences Niagara or905regions, are oftenjustaslarge. Inmanycases,withtheexception between Toronto andothermostlyurbanareas, such asitsneighbouringHamilton- reconciliation withIndigenous peoples,ortheimpactofimmigration.Butdifferences find cleardifferences inviewsbetween Torontonians onissuessuchas andNortherners reducible toonesbetween bigcitiesandsmalltowns.Itisperhapsnotsurprisingto side ofanissuetoonedegree oranother–elsethedifferences thatdoexistare not are eitherrelatively modest–meaningthatmostregions findthemselvesonthesame to publicpolicychoices,thedifferences inpreferences across theprovince’s regions however,This pattern, istheexception ratherthantherule.Onmanyquestionsrelated smaller communities. be reflected inthegreater uneasinessaboutthelocaleconomyamongthoselivingin economic growth are currently concentratedintheprovince’s urbancentres appearsto agreements havebenefitted theirlocalcommunities.Thefactthatbothpopulationand better overthepastfiveyears.Theyare alsomoretrade likelytosaythatinternational Ontarians tosaythattheeconomyincityorregion where theylivehasbeendoing ones, forinstance,oneconomicissues.UrbanOntariansare more likelythanrural This isnottosaythatthere are notsomeurban-ruraldifferences. There are notable residents ofurbanandruralareas basicallyhavethesamevalues. this isthecasedespitefactthatmostOntariansthemselvesreject thepremise that however, cannoteasilybecharacterizedasforminganurban-ruraldivide.Interestingly, differences intheopinionsofOntariansfrom different regions.Thesedifferences, Overall, theresults ofthe Conclusion Portraits 2017 surveyshowthatthere are somekey

21 | THE MOWAT CENTRE 22 | PORTRAITS 2017: REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN ONTARIO complete andrepresentative picture oftherangeopinionsacross theprovince. unusual, itiscertainlyimportantfortoberepeated infuture studiestogetamore was conductedwithalarge sampleof2,000Ontarians.Whilethisapproach was highlightedinthisstudycouldbecapturedpatterns becausethe be relied upontoprovide asufficientlynuancedportraitofthe province. The regional opinion –withprovincial samplestypicallyintheneighbourhood of400–cannolonger has perhapsnowgrown solarge anddiversethatconventionalstudiesofpublic The finalconclusionofthisstudy, ofcourse,istheobservationthatOntario’s population people across allregions whothinkalike. many questionsbutbynomeansall.Andineverycase,there are significantnumbersof is importantnottoexaggeratetheextentofthesedifferences. Toronto standsouton their city, townorregion, thissentimentisthestrongest inToronto. Havingsaidthis,it recalling thefindingthatwhileOntariansinall regions saythattheyfeelattachedto reliance oncertainpublicservices,notablytransit). Andinthis regard, itisworth the broader publicsectorandthefinancialsectors,otherssuchasgreater ones suchastheconcentrationincityofserviceindustriesrelating togovernment, (factors thatincludedemographiconessuchasage,educationandethnicity, economic Portraits 2017 survey 15 surveyed in other nationalsurveysistypicallymuchsmallerthanthesampleof2,000Ontarians to questionwording andformat.Readersshouldalso notethattheOntariosamplefor oftenentailssmalladjustments survey mode(from whichinturn telephonetoInternet), between theearliersurveysandcurrent one,readers shouldnotetheevolutionin by theCentre forResearch andInformationonCanada(CRIC).Incomparingdata extensively from previous studies,includingthoseconductedbetween1998and2006 To address thequestionofwhetherattitudeshavechangedover time,thesurveydrew aged 18andolderinbothOntarioQuebec. and region; rate. Alldataare weightedaccording tothemostrecent Censusfigures forage,gender overall sample(n=3,000)thecorresponding margin oferror is+/-1.8%,witha5%error Quebec samplesare +/-2.2%and+/-3.1%respectively, 19timesoutof20.For the appropriate margins oferror fortraditionalsamplesofthesizesOntarioand the be technicallycharacterizedasrandomprobability samples.Still,asaguideline, Sample frameswere drawnfrom opt-inmarketresearch panelsandhencecannot (n=2,000) andQuebec(n=1,000)aged18older. 14, 2017from withinrandomly-selected,representative samplesofresidents ofOntario the MowatCentre. Surveydatawere collectedbetweenNovember1and Portraits 2017 METHODOLOGY APPENDIX ThesampleinQuebecisalsorepresentative intermsoflanguage spokenathome. 15 Portraits 2017 in turn, findingsfrom inturn, thesurveyare representative oftheadultpopulation isapublicopinionsurveyundertakenbyMissionResearch onbehalfof .

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