RUSSIA: ARMS CONTROL, DISARMAMENT AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY IMEMO SUPPLEMENT TO THE RUSSIAN EDITION OF THE SIPRI YEARBOOK 2011 MOSCOW 2012 RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES INSTITUTE OF WORLD ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS (IMEMO) RUSSIA: ARMS CONTROL, DISARMAMENT AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY IMEMO SUPPLEMENT TO THE RUSSIAN EDITION OF THE SIPRI YEARBOOK 2011 Preface by Alexander DYNKIN Editors Alexei ARBATOV, Alexandre KALIADINE Editorial Assistant Tatiana ANICHKINA Moscow 2012 УДК 327 ББК 64.4 (0) Rus 95 Rus 95 Russia: arms control, disarmament and international security / Ed. by Alexei Arbatov and Alexandre Kaliadine. – M., IMEMO RAN, 2012. – 214 pp. ISBN 978-5-9535- 0340-2 The volume provides IMEMO contributions to the Russian edition of the 2011 SIPRI Yearbook: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security. The contributors address a wide range of is- sues: nuclear disarmament: solutions to the stalemate; missile de- fence: challenges and opportunities; regional BMD systems and their development; evolution of the regime established by the Bio- logical and Toxin Weapons Convention; developing the Arctic: se- curity aspects; implications of high-precision conventional weapons for international security; trends in modern space activities. This year’s edition also highlights Russian defence spending and arma- ments programmes; anti-missile debates in Russian expert commu- nity and local conflicts on the CIS territory. To view IMEMO RAN publications, please visit our website at http://www.imemo.ru ISBN 978-5-9535- 0340-2 © IMEMO RAN, 2012 CONTENTS PREFACE ........................................................................................7 Alexander DYNKIN ACRONYMS ...................................................................................9 PART I. ANALYSES, FORECASTS, DISCUSSIONS 1. NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT: A STALEMATE OR A TIME-OUT?...............................................................................15 Alexei ARBATOV New START..............................................................................16 Strategic debates in Russia ........................................................22 Negotiations on strategic offensive arms...................................26 Is joint missile defence possible? ..............................................27 Non-strategic nuclear weapons..................................................36 New format of BMD dialogue...................................................42 2. KEY ASPECTS OF COOPERATION BETWEEN RUSSIA AND USA/NATO OVER MISSILE DEFENCE: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES ....................................44 Vladimir DVORKIN Missile and nuclear threats ........................................................44 European BMD threat to Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces ........................................................................................46 Potential Russian contribution to the European BMD ..............54 The nature of cooperation..........................................................57 Integration of BMD information systems..................................59 3. EVOLUTION OF THE MTCR AND BMD: REGIONAL ASPECTS .................................................................66 Sergei OZNOBISHCHEV Major trends in the development of missile capabilities ...........66 Enforcement of the MTCR........................................................68 Regional BMD systems and their development ........................70 4 RUSSIA AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY 4. ANTI-MISSILE DEBATES: TWO TRENDS IN RUSSIAN EXPERT COMMUNITY...............................................................79 Alexandre KALIADINE Lingering strategic uncertainties ...............................................80 The most negative scenario .......................................................84 Quest for a non-confrontational alternative...............................93 5. BTWC: OUTCOMES OF THE SEVENTH REVIEW CONFERENCE..............................................................................99 Natalia KALININA Introduction ...............................................................................99 Scientific-technological developments relevant to the BTW ..............................................................................102 Compliance of the BTWC .......................................................103 Promotion of universality of the BTWC .................................105 Confidence-building measures ................................................107 Results and plans .....................................................................111 6. DEVELOPING THE ARCTIC: SECURITY ISSUES.........................................................................................116 Andrei ZAGORSKI Delimitation of the maritime boundaries.................................117 The outer limits of the continental shelf..................................119 International navigation...........................................................122 Access to mineral resources ....................................................124 Demilitarization of the Arctic..................................................125 New security challenges in the Arctic .....................................130 7. TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND THE RUSSIA–NATO DIALOGUE ............................................134 Marianna EVDOTYEVA, Dmitry CHIZHOV PART II. EXPERT INSIGHTS 8. RUSSIA: DEFENCE SPENDING AND ARMAMENTS PROGRAMMES..........................................................................145 Lyudmila PANKOVA Defence spending in 2012–2014 .............................................145 GPV–2020 ...............................................................................155 CONTENTS 5 9. LOCAL CONFLICTS ON THE CIS TERRITORY................162 Stanislaw IVANOV Moldova–Transdniestrian conflict...........................................163 Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict over Nagorny Karabakh..................................................................................168 10. HIGH-PRECISION CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY .......................................173 Tatiana ANICHKINA US high-precision weapons programmes................................174 Russia and high-precision conventional weapons...................178 Implications for international security.....................................181 Conclusions .............................................................................185 11. TRENDS IN MODERN SPACE ACTIVITIES ....................187 Natalia ROMASHKINA Classification of space systems ...............................................187 Major sectors and funding .......................................................189 Conclusions .............................................................................198 Figures .....................................................................................200 12. KEY DOCUMENTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION AND NATIONAL SECURITY, DEFENCE AND ARMS CONTROL (JANUARY–DECEMBER 2011)................206 Tamara FARNASOVA Legislative acts ........................................................................206 Normative acts.........................................................................209 About the contributors..................................................................212 ROSOBORONEXPORT, JSC, Company Profile........................213 Russian Council of International Affairs .....................................213 PREFACE The Institute of World Economy and International Relations presents in this volume the 12th edition of RUSSIA: ARMS CONTROL, DISARMAMENT AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY. It provides IMEMO contributions to the Russian edition of the 2011 SIPRI Yearbook: Armaments, Disarmament and International Secu- rity. By ratifying in 2011 New START (Prague Treaty) on meas- ures for the further reduction and limitation of strategic offensive arms, Russia and the United States inspired advocates of arms con- trol and cooperation in both countries, as well as in Western Europe and the rest of the world. There was a feeling that the decade of stalemate was over, and a world free of nuclear weapons became fi- nally closer. However, the cautious optimism gave way to an increasing pessimism.Russia and the USA found themselves in a stalemate over the joint European ballistic missile defence (BMD). In 2011– 2012 the discussions on this issue continued against the background of the controversy between Russia and the USA over plans to de- velop and deploy new missile defence architecture. BMD systems are integrated into a larger context of national security policies and military and political relations. The context poses significant hurdles to the cooperation on sensitive arms con- trol issues. The European BMD theme is linked to the multifaceted Russia–NATO relations and broader geopolitical and strategic sta- bility considerations. IMEMO researchers believe that mutually beneficial com- promises in the BMD area are still possible and can open the pros- pect of building a qualitatively new model of cooperation in many other sensitive areas. The contributions to this volume offer solutions to the stalemate and the resumption of a sustainable international arms control. They contain specific proposals for new format of BMD dialogue and potential Russian contribution to the joint European BMD, as well as suggestions for possible compromises over strate- gic and tactical nuclear weapons. This year’s edition reviews the evolution of the international arms control regime established by the Biological and