Forthcoming: Rationality and Society Portrait of a Failed Rebellion: An Account of Rational, Sub-optimal Violence in Western Uganda * By LUCY HOVIL AND ERIC WERKER Abstract While newspaper reports typically describe anti-civilian violence in civil war as resulting from hatred or anarchy, there is an emerging literature that interprets these processes as calculated, strategic actions of war makers. We argue that this literature overestimates the strategic value of violence by focusing on conflicts where this strategy is used deliberately and on a massive scale. Our analysis examines the violence in a failed, peripheral rebellion in western Uganda and finds that the brutality was premeditated; however the gains to the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) rebels were not military. Instead, we argue that anti-civilian violence in western Uganda stems from the financier-insurgent relationship that promoted a high level of violence in response to divergent interests, unequal access to information, and contracting limitations. In other words, civilians were victimized in order that the ADF could keep their outside funding. Key words: civilian violence; civil war; insurgency; war financing; Uganda. * Authors’ names listed alphabetically. Refugee Law Project, Makerere University, P.O. Box 6016, Kampala, Uganda; Department of Economics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138. E-mails:
[email protected];
[email protected]. This draft: February 23, 2004. We wish to thank Robert Bates, Zachary Lomo, Charles Cohen, Robert Trager, Jeremy Weinstein, and two anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions. Winifred Agabo, Emmanuel Bagenda, and Elias Lubega provided excellent research assistance in Uganda. We are grateful to the Ugandan National Council on Science and Technology for permission to conduct the field research.