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2001 January COUNTRY REPORT Syria At a glance: 2001-02 OVERVIEW President Bashar al-Assad’s position is politically more secure, which has allowed him to launch a number of liberal political and economic init- iatives. However, with his agenda of reform at odds with elements of the political/military elite, his position remains precarious. Policy initiatives, particularly at an economic level, will be slow to be implemented and subject to revision at the behest of the old guard, as they seek to preserve their interests. The EIU expects growth to rise marginally over the forecast period from 2.4% to 2.6%, while inflation is likely to be kept in check. Key changes from last month Political outlook • Mr Assad’s hard line on defence has entrenched him within the military establishment, but at the expense of higher regional tension. We expect tensions to remain high in southern Lebanon, representing a significant foreign-policy challenge for Mr Assad. • Calls from within Lebanon for an end to Syria’s dominance and a withdrawal of Syrian troops will continue to test Mr Assad’s abilities. Economic policy outlook • Political uncertainty will remain the leading factor determining the business climate. While a raft of proposals for economic reform have been announced, their implementation is likely to be slowed. • Ground-breaking plans have been proposed for financial sector liberalisation, including for the establishment of private banks, to create a local bourse, and to float the Syrian Pound. Economic forecast • Reduced government revenue as a result of a decline in oil prices may limit fiscal expenditure. • Growth will remain modest, held back by the prevailing political instability, while inflation is expected to rise slightly over the forecast period. • The total debt stock will fall in 2001, as the government takes advantage of the oil windfall in 2000 to repay non-disputed external debt. January 2001 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 50 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The EIU delivers its information in four ways: through our digital portfolio, where our latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising conferences and roundtables. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Hong Kong The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St The Economist Building 25/F, Dah Sing Financial Centre London 111 West 57th Street 108 Gloucester Road SW1Y 4LR New York Wanchai United Kingdom NY 10019, US Hong Kong Tel: (44.20) 7830 1007 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Tel: (852) 2802 7288 Fax: (44.20) 7499 9767 Fax: (1.212) 586 1181/2 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.eiu.com Electronic delivery This publication can be viewed by subscribing online at http://store.eiu.com Reports are also available in various other electronic formats, such as CD-ROM, Lotus Notes, online databases and as direct feeds to corporate intranets. For further information, please contact your nearest Economist Intelligence Unit office London: Jan Frost Tel: (44.20) 7830 1183 Fax: (44.20) 7830 1023 New York: Dante Cantu Tel: (1.212) 554 0643 Fax: (1.212) 586 1181 Hong Kong: Amy Ha Tel: (852) 2802 7288/2585 3888 Fax: (852) 2802 7720/7638 Copyright © 2001 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author's and the publisher's ability. However, the EIU does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN 0269-7211 Symbols for tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Redhouse Press Ltd, Unit 151, Dartford Trade Park, Dartford, Kent DA1 1QB, UK Syria 1 Contents 3 Summary 4 Political structure 5 Economic structure 5 Annual indicators 6 Quarterly indicators 7 Outlook for 2001-02 7 Political outlook 8 Economic policy outlook 10 Economic forecast 13 The political scene 18 Economic policy 20 The domestic economy 20 Oil and gas 24 Agriculture 25 Infrastructure and Industry 26 Financial and other services 29 Foreign trade and payments List of tables 10 International assumptions summary 11 Forecast summary 19 Official Syrian government finances 22 Crude oil production 27 Consolidated balance sheet of the specialised banks List of figures 6 External trade 6 Oil production 12 Gross domestic product 12 Current-account balance/GDP 21 Oil prices, 2000 EIU Country Report January 2001 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2001 Syria 3 Summary January 2001 Outlook for 2001-02 While the position of the president, Bashar Assad, is politically more secure, it remains precarious. His agenda of reform is at odds with a political/military elite he must continue to co-opt to carry out policy changes. While Mr Assad should be able to deliver on some of the promised political and economic reforms, the process will be slow, and remain at the behest of the old guard, who are keen to maintain their privileges. Given the continuing political uncertainty, the EIU expects growth of 2.4% in 2001, rising to 2.6% in 2002. A steady decline in oil prices will put pressure on fiscal expenditure. Increased government spending and growth in global non-oil commodity prices may fan inflation, although it is expected to remain below 2.5%. The political scene Mr Assad has enhanced his position within the ruling elite, and used it to launch a number of liberal political initiatives. His hard line on defence has entrenched him within the military establishment, but at the expense of higher regional tension. Opposition in Lebanon has grown to Syria’s troop presence, and Mr Assad has sought to compromise. The veteran foreign minister, Farouq al-Sharaa, has used his new found autonomy to launch a series of foreign-policy initiatives, delicately improving relations with rival regional powers such as Iran and Iraq, and Turkey. Economic policy Reforms have been launched to encourage private-sector investment, ranging from fiscal measures to plans for financial market liberalisation—including proposals for private banks, a stockmarket, and to float the currency. The draft budget has been prepared for 2001, one of the most timely for three decades, with a projected 16.9% increase in expenditure. Plans were announced to revitalise the industrial sector. A forum was held to encourage foreign investment, and there are plans to shake up the housing market. The domestic economy A long disused oil pipeline to Iraq has been reopened, potentially offering Syria cheaper crude oil and boosting exports, but facing the potential of angering the US and UN because the move threatens to break sanctions on Iraq. An agreement has been signed for a US$1bn regional pipeline initiative. The operating contract for a global system for mobile communications (GSM) licence has been delayed further. Lebanese banks have begun doing business in the free zones. Foreign trade and The government has rescheduled debts with Germany and Iran, with the Payments former opening up the prospect of better trade with the EU. There are more regional trade initiatives, but concerns are growing about tariffs with Lebanon. Editors: Giles Allen (editor); Merli Baroudi (consulting editor) Editorial closing date: January 1st 2001 All queries: Tel: (44.20) 7830 1007 E-mail: [email protected] Next report: Full schedule on www.eiu.com/schedule EIU Country Report January 2001 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2001 4 Syria Political structure Official name Syrian Arab Republic Form of state Socialist republic Legal system Based on the constitution of 1973 Legislature 250-member Majlis al-Shaab (People's Assembly) directly elected for a four-year term Electoral system Universal adult suffrage National elections Last elections: 1998 (legislative) and 2000 (presidential); next election due by 2002 (legislative) Head of state President, directly elected for a seven-year term. The president appoints the vice- presidents, the prime minister and the Council of Ministers. Bashar al-Assad, who was elected president in July 2000, holds the posts of commander-in-chief of the armed forces and secretary-general of the Baath Party. The vice-presidents are Abdel-Halim Khaddam and Zuheir Masharka. Executive The prime minister heads the Council of Ministers, members of which are drawn from the Baath Party and its partners; last reshuffle in March 2000 Main political parties Seven parties form the ruling National Progressive Front (NPF): Arab Socialist Baath Party; Arab Socialist Party; Arab Socialist Unionist Party; Communist Party; Syrian Arab Socialist Union Party; Unionist Socialist Democratic Party; Union Socialist Party Prime minister Mohammed Mustapha Miro Deputy prime minister & defence minister Mustafa Tlas Deputy prime minister for economic affairs Khaled Raad Deputy prime
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