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Turkey's Neighborhood

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Turkey's Neighborhood Turkey’s Neighborhood Edited by Mustafa Kibaro ğlu Published by: Foreign Policy Institute 1 DI Ş POL İTİKA-FOREIGN POLICY A Quarterly of the Foreign Policy Institute Foreign Policy Institute The Turkish Foreign Policy Institute (FPI) was founded in 1974 as a private organization. It’s Council of Administration is composed of academics, diplomats and bureaucrats. The founder of the Institute, Mr. Seyfi Ta şhan, is also the President. The Turkish Foreign Policy Institute aims at contributing to foreign policy through research, meetings and publications. It is currently affiliated to the Turkish Foundation for International Relations and Strategic Studies. The current members of its Council of Administration are: Seyfi Ta şhan, Ambassador (Rtd.) Re şat Arım, Ambassador (Rtd.) Oktay Aksoy, Prof. Dr. Meliha Altunı şık, Assoc. Prof Ersel Aydınlı, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Ba ğcı , Prof. Dr. Emel Doğramacı, Prof. Dr. Atila Eralp, Prof. Dr. Metin Heper, Prof. Dr. Yüksel İnan, Prof. Dr. Ali Karaosmano ğlu , Assoc. Prof. Mustafa Kibaro ğlu, Ambassador Selim Kuneralp, Ambassador (Rtd.) Ömer Lütem, Prof. Dr. Orhan Morgil , Prof. Dr. Ersin Onulduran , Prof. Dr. Ergun Özbudun, Assoc. Prof. Ali Tekin Foreign Policy Institute Bilkent University, East Campus, Ankara, Turkey Tel: +903122662869 Fax: +903122662871 e.mail: [email protected] Web Site: http://www.foreignpolicy.org.tr Printed by BRC Matbaacılık in Ankara, April 2008 ISBN: 978-975-7832-15-7 2 Table of Contents Foreword ............................................................................. 7 Seyfi Ta şhan............................................................................. 7 Introduction ........................................................................ 9 Mustafa Kibaro ğlu ..................................................................... 9 Part One: Select Country Studies ................................... 17 1. Bulgaria ......................................................................... 19 Birgül Demirta ş-Co şkun * ........................................................ 19 Introduction ..................................................................................... 19 Bulgaria during the Cold War ......................................................... 20 Bulgaria in the Post-Cold War Era ................................................. 23 Political Developments ........................................................................ 23 Economic Developments ...................................................................... 27 Bulgarian Foreign Policy ................................................................ 29 Relations with Turkey ..................................................................... 37 Political Relations ................................................................................ 37 Economic Relations ............................................................................. 43 Conclusion ...................................................................................... 45 Bibliography .................................................................................... 47 2. Ukraine .......................................................................... 53 Hüseyin Oylupınar .................................................................. 53 A. Ukraine’s Submission and Revival ............................................ 54 B. Domestic Dynamics .................................................................. 60 B.1 Developments and Trends in Ukrainian Politics ........................... 60 B.2 Developments in the Economy ....................................................... 65 B.3 Transformation of Society ............................................................. 67 B.4 Transformation of Ukrainian Military ........................................... 70 C. External Dynamics ..................................................................... 74 C.1 Ukraine in International Politics .................................................. 74 C.2 Challenges of Ukrainian Foreign and Security Policy.................. 75 D. Turkey and Ukraine in the Post Cold War Period ...................... 84 Future Perspectives ....................................................................... 89 3. Georgia .......................................................................... 93 Özlen Çelebi ........................................................................... 93 Introduction ..................................................................................... 93 3 Turkey’s Neighborhood Historical Determinants of the Relations between Turkey and Georgia ........................................................................................... 95 Cold War Politics ............................................................................ 99 Current Affairs: Intersection of Interests....................................... 100 Georgian Politics in the Post-Cold War Period ................................ 100 Post-Cold War Politics and Impacts on Turkish Foreign Policy: ..... 102 Turkey and Georgia ..................................................................... 104 Conclusion .................................................................................... 108 4. Azerbaijan ................................................................... 111 Pınar İpek ............................................................................. 111 Early Challenges for the Newly Independent Republic of Azerbaijan ...................................................................................................... 112 The Karabakh Conflict and Domestic Politics: ................................. 112 The Legal Status of the Caspian Sea: ................................................ 117 The Geopolitics of Oil and Pipelines: ................................................ 119 Recent Developments .................................................................. 125 New Challenges for Stability in Azerbaijan and Policy Implications for Turkey ..................................................................................... 129 Bibliography .................................................................................. 138 5. Iran .............................................................................. 143 Mustafa Kibaro ğlu & Yasemin Nun ....................................... 143 Introduction ................................................................................... 143 The Rafsanjani Period .................................................................. 144 The Khatami Period ..................................................................... 145 Economic Situation....................................................................... 147 Foreign Policy ............................................................................... 151 Iran and the NPT .......................................................................... 155 Iran and the Caspian Sea Demarcation ....................................... 155 Iran and Nagorno-Karabag .......................................................... 157 Turkish-Iranian Relations ............................................................. 158 Bibliography: ................................................................................. 164 6. Iraq .............................................................................. 167 Tarık O ğuzlu ......................................................................... 167 Introduction ................................................................................... 167 Iraq during the Cold War years .................................................... 168 Iraq in the 1990s........................................................................... 173 Iraq in the post 9/11 era ............................................................... 175 Turkey and Iraq during the Cold War era ..................................... 176 Turkey and Iraq during the 1990s ................................................ 178 Turkey and Iraq in the During the US Occupation ....................... 180 Conclusion .................................................................................... 183 Bibliography .................................................................................. 186 4 Table of Contents 7. Syria ............................................................................ 189 Berna Süer ........................................................................... 189 Introduction ................................................................................... 189 An Overview: Syria in the Cold War Years .................................. 190 Syria in the Post-Cold War Era I: Hafız al-Asad Period ............... 192 End of the Cold War and Syria .......................................................... 192 The Gulf War and Syria ..................................................................... 194 Syria in the Middle East Peace Process ............................................ 196 Syrian and Turkey in the 1990s ................................................... 198 Syria in the Post-Cold War Era II: Regime under Bashar Asad ... 203 Domestic Challenges and Opportunities ........................................... 204 External Challenges and Opportunities ............................................. 206 The Iraq War and Syria ................................................................ 207 Syria and Lebanon ......................................................................
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