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Result Update | Apollo Hospitals ICICI Direct Research Apollo Hospitals (APOHOS) CMP: | 4060 Target: | 4510 (11%) Target Period: 12 months HOLD August 14, 2021 Strong Q1 amid Covid surge… About the stock: Apollo is one of the leading integrated healthcare service provider Particulars with avenues like hospitals, pharmacies, primary care & diagnostic clinics. Particular Amount It has got a digital presence with “ASK Apollo” & digital health platform Market Capitalisation | 58377 crore “Apollo 24/7”. Apollo Hospitals is the exclusive supplier for APL, which Debt (FY21) | 2860 crore Cash (FY21) | 724 crore operates India’s largest standalone pharmacy chain with 4,118 outlets Update EV | 60512 crore Group capacity of 10,209 beds across 71 hospitals in India. Total 8816 beds 52 week H/L (|) 4230/1585 owned in 44 hospitals; 272 beds in 11 cradles; 270 beds in 11 day-care/short Equity capital | 71.9 crore surgical stay centres; 851 beds in five hospitals under O&M contracts Face value | 5 Result Shareholding pattern (in %) Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Q1FY22 Results: Apollo reported strong Q1FY22 results. Promoter 30.8 30.8 30.8 29.8 29.8 Others 69.2 69.2 69.2 70.2 70.2 Sales were up 31% QoQ to | 3760 crore EBITDA in Q1FY22 was at | 520 crore, up 26% QoQ with margins at 14% Price Chart Consequent adjusted PAT was at | 243 crore (up 61.7% QoQ) 5000 15000 4000 12000 3000 9000 2000 6000 What should investors do? Apollo’s share price has grown by ~2.9x over the past five years (from ~| 1361 in July 2018 to ~| 4035 levels in July 2021). 1000 3000 0 0 Given the recent run-up we change our view from BUY to HOLD Feb-19 Feb-21 Feb-20 Aug-19 Aug-20 Aug-21 Target Price and Valuation: We value Apollo at | 4510 based on SOTP valuation. Aug-18 Apollo Hospital (L.H.S) NSE500 (R.H.S) Recent Event & Key risks Key triggers for future price performance: Slump sale of Backend pharmacy, 24/7 platform, Pharmacy retail, Apollo is undergoing optical transformational journey towards creating an Apollo 24/7 & Pharmacy brand into omni-channel healthcare platform that could set the platform for tapping Research Equity Retail new-age investors enabling rapid scale up of the digital healthcare platform AHL – Business normalisation in healthcare is expected from Q2FY22 and with Key Risk: (i) Slower ramp up in strong healthcare pedigree & asset base, the company is on course to elective surgeries (ii) better than integrate all entities digitally to leverage its brand and physical presence expected traction in AHLL The new hospitals, ventures are turning profitable on the back of a judicious Research Analyst case mix besides better occupancy & ramp up at new hospitals and AHLL Siddhant Khandekar [email protected] Securities ICICI Alternate Stock Idea: Apart from Apollo, in our hospital coverage we like Narayana Mitesh Shah It has 21 hospitals, five heart centres, 19 primary care facilities and a multi- [email protected] speciality hospital in Cayman Islands with in total 5992 operational beds BUY with a target price of | 620 Key Financial Summary Key Financials 5 year CAGR 2 year CAGR FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E (| crore) (FY16-21) (FY21-23E) Net Sales 9617.4 11246.8 10560.0 11.2 13546.8 14605.0 17.6 EBITDA 1064.6 1583.4 1137.4 10.6 2021.0 2367.1 44.3 EBITDA margins (%) 11.1 14.1 10.8 14.9 16.2 PAT 236.0 324.7 113.0 -5.0 868.2 1104.9 212.7 EPS (|) 16.4 22.6 7.9 60.4 76.8 PE (x) 247.3 128.3 388.2 53.5 52.8 P/BV (x) 17.5 17.5 12.7 10.6 9.1 RoE (%) 7.1 9.7 2.5 15.8 17.2 RoCE (%) 8.8 10.2 6.3 15.5 18.2 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Result Update | Apollo Hospitals ICICI Direct Research Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights Q1FY22 Results: Robust performance continues Consolidated revenues grew 31% QoQ to | 3760 crore (I-direct estimate: | 2772 crore) mainly driven by hospital segment, which grew 26.2% QoQ to | 1941 crore vs. I-direct estimate of | 1433 crore. Pharmacy distribution segment revenues grew 35% QoQ to | 1512 crore (I-direct estimate: | 1113 crore). EBITDA margins de-grew 53 bps QoQ to 13.8% (I-direct estimate: 13.8%) mainly due to lower gross profit margins, which is attributable to case mix. EBITDA in absolute terms grew 26.2% QoQ to | 519.9 crore (I- direct estimate: | 383.6 crore). Adjusted PAT for the quarter was at | 243.2 crore vs. profit of | 150.4 crore in Q4FY21 (I-direct estimate: | 140.2 crore). Delta vis-à-vis EBITDA was mainly due to exceptional income arising due to acquisition of additional 50% stake of Gleneagles in AMSHL After Covid related hindrances last year, the healthcare business is more or less back to normalcy albeit due to Covid traction. Structurally, cost reduction drives, expanding of complex procedures and profitability of new hospitals and AHLL remain key management focus areas. The pharmacy business remains a steady growth engine albeit in a changed structure Q1FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights Q1FY22 occupancy: 5,108 beds (67%); Mature hospitals: 3,500 beds (64%); New hospitals: 1,607 beds (73%) Inpatient volumes increased 53% to 96,704 ARPOB (excluding vaccination) was at | 41,102 Covid ARPOB – | 21,700, non Covid ARPOB – | 44,000 Also, 26% inpatient Covid volume & 26% revenue of healthcare services from Covid Net addition of 45 pharmacies stores in Q1FY22 Apollo 24/7 connected to ~6 lakh consultations in Q1FY22, 70 million registered users & Apollo 24/7 added 47 lakhs new customer in Q1FY22 The management guided for higher margins in the next couple of years from both new and mature hospitals due to – o Higher asset utilisation o Cost cutting o Centre of excellence Diagnostics performed 6.6 lakh RTPCR test during Q1FY22. Covid contribution is at | 45 crore Healthcare Services o Revenues in the Tamil Nadu cluster grew 146%, IP volumes grew 79%. ARPOB grew 14% to | 50,466. Overall occupancy in the cluster was 1,314 beds (62% occupancy) o In AP, Telangana region, revenues grew 170%, IP volumes grew by 76%. ARPOB grew 25% to | 49,853. Occupancy in the cluster was 842 beds (63% occupancy) o The Karnataka region showed improvement in growth as Malleswaram witnessed an IP volume growth of 67%. Occupancy in the cluster was 637 beds (75% occupancy) Pharmacy business o Revenue of | 1829.3 crore in Q1FY22 with total 4,163 pharmacies o Private label sales at 13.2% of pharmacy revenue ICICI Securities | Retail Research 2 Result Update | Apollo Hospitals ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 1: Variance Analysis Q1FY22 Q1FY22E Q1FY21 Q4FY21 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Comments Revenue 3,760.2 2,772.3 2,171.5 2,868.0 73.2 31.1 QoQ increase mainly due to surge in COVID cases and vaccination Raw Material Expenses 2,062.0 1,425.8 1,217.5 1,475.0 69.4 39.8 Employee Expenses 443.5 360.4 448.6 388.4 -1.1 14.2 Other expenditure 734.9 602.5 469.9 592.7 56.4 24.0 EBITDA 519.9 383.6 35.5 411.8 1,365.2 26.2 QoQ decline amid change in mix towards low margins COVID cases and EBITDA (%) 13.8 13.8 1.6 14.4 1219 bps -53 bps vaccination Interest 94.7 70.2 127.4 98.6 -25.7 -3.9 Depreciation 140.6 150.6 160.2 138.5 -12.2 1.5 Other Income 24.6 13.9 7.7 20.5 219.2 20.5 PBT before EO & Forex 309.3 176.6 -244.4 195.2 LP 58.4 EO -294.1 0.0 0.0 -25.2 0.0 NA PBT after Exceptional Items 603.4 176.6 -244.4 220.4 LP 173.7 Tax 98.6 53.0 -40.8 67.7 LP 45.6 Tax rate (%) 16.3 30.0 16.7 30.7 Net Profit 489.3 140.2 -208.2 167.9 LP 191.5 QoQ Delta vis-à-vis EBITDA amid lower interest, depreciation, tax rate Adj. Net Profit 243.2 140.2 -208.2 150.4 LP 61.7 and higher other income EPS (|) 34.0 9.8 -14.5 11.7 LP 191.5 Key Metrics Hospitals 1939.2 1433.9 789.9 1538.8 145.5 26.0 26% revenues derived from COVID cases Pharmacy 1512.0 1113.2 0.0 1118.7 0.0 35.2 Q0Q increase amid COVID opportunities AHLL 309.0 225.3 102.4 210.5 201.8 46.8 Q0Q increase amid COVID opportunities Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 2: Change in estimates FY22E FY23E Comments (| Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Changed mainly due to better than expected growth in Q1FY22 amid Revenue 12,782.7 13,546.8 6.0 14,684.1 14,605.0 -0.5 surge in COVID cases and vaccinations Changed mainly due to better than expected growth in Q1FY22 amid EBITDA 1,902.7 2,021.0 6.2 2,382.2 2,367.1 -0.6 surge in COVID cases and vaccinations EBITDA Margin (%) 14.9 14.9 2 bps 16.2 16.2 1 bps Adjusted PAT 812.5 868.2 6.9 1,192.2 1,104.9 -7.3 Changed mainly in sync with EBITDA EPS (|) 56.5 60.4 6.9 82.9 76.8 -7.3 Source: ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 3: Assumptions Current Earlier (% Growth) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY22E FY23E Healthcare Services 5,729.8 5,002.2 7,239.4 7,369.4 6,819.7 7,287.3 Increased mainly due to higher than expected sales in Q1FY22 Pharmacy NA NA 5,129.4 5,724.2 4,868.6 5,864.7 AHLL 696.4 681.8 1,178.1 1,511.4 1,094.4 1,532.1 Increased mainly due to higher than expected sales in Q1FY22 Source: ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 4: Financial Summary Revenues Growth EPS Growth P/E EV/EBITDA RoNW RoCE (| crore) (%) (|) (%) (x) (X) (%) (%) FY20 11247 16.9 22.6 37.6 129.4 39.1 9.7 10.2 FY21 10560 -6.1 7.9 -65.2 391.4 53.5 2.5 6.3 FY22E 13547 28.3 60.4 668.2 54.0 29.8 15.8 15.5 FY23E 14605 7.8 76.8 27.3 53.3 25.0 17.2 18.2 Source: ICICI Direct Research ICICI Securities | Retail Research 3 Result Update | Apollo Hospitals ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 5: Trends in Quarterly Performance (| crore) Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Total Operating Income 2210.5 2401.6 2495.0 2499.5 2571.9 2840.7 2911.7 2922.4 2171.5 2760.7 2759.8 2868.0 3760.2 73.2 31.1 Raw Material Expenses 1078.3 1227.1 1210.1 1198.7 1237.8
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