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China's Rise and “Go Out”Policy

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China's Rise and “Go Out”Policy China’s rise and“ Go Out”policy What drives China’s rise to“Great Power” China increases investment in beleaguered European countries Chinese money finds its way to Korean high-tech firms :: China’s rise and “Go Out” policy What drives China’s rise to “Great Power” SHIM Sang-Hyung Senior Business Analyst of POSCO Research institute n the winter of 2006, a documentary film broadcasted by China Central Television (CCTV) aroused an echo within Chinese society. It was a twelve-part documentary, titled The Rise of the Great I Powers ( ), with the rise and fall of great powers since the 15th century as its theme. This documentary compares the emergence and development of great powers, from Spain and Portugal to Germany and the US, as a lesson for China. Through this documentary film, China, which gained economic confidence with a more than 10 percent economic growth rate for four consecutive years, seemed to instill its people with the dream of “Great Power.” The last episode introduces what all great powers have in common: they focused on science and education, established political and economic systems suitable to their countries, and led modernization under the initiative of the government. 013 Summer 2011�POSRI Chindia Quarterly The program concluded on the following notes: the What draws our attention is not the replacement of great powers degree of China’s success in the globalization of the yuan, or how soon is an inescapable law of it might reap fruits from its efforts, but history; the great powers rather China’s meticulously planned emerged not by chance, but preparation for the future. by seeking their paths rationally. It also added that the correct path should be aligned with the peace of all mankind. All in all, it was a quite meaningful finale. Not long ago, during the discussion session at a forum with Korean experts on China, the president of one medium-sized Korean company with a fairly large presence in China raised his hand and spoke his mind: foreign trade is settled in yuan in China, so he has to change yuan to US dollars and then dollars to Korean won, burdening him with a huge exchange commission. Many people engaged in Korea-China economic cooperation say that if a yuan settlement system were introduced in Korea, many Korean companies would benefit from the system. ○● Path to economic superpower The word jueq̌Ｉ ( ), which describes a high mountain, means “to rise” in Chinese. The word has a somewhat intimidating connotation. China’s current foreign policy approach can be summed up by the phrase “rise in peace ( ),” even though the two words, peace ( ) and rise ( ), are a bit contradictory. China, already the world’s second largest economy, is no longer able to stay the course of ta�o gua�ng yǎng hu ( ), meaning “hiding one’s capacities and biding one’s time,” as it used to in the past. The international arena is somewhat perplexed in the face of China, which claims the coexistence of the two contradictory values 014 POSRI Chindia Quarterly�Summer 2011 :: China’s rise and “Go Out” policy of socialism and a market economy, and which utilizes somewhat unreasonable means and remarks, refusing to make concessions when it comes to its core national interests. People often wonder, “Can we blindly accept China’s political and economic systems as a new paradigm?” or “Can we expect peaceful leadership from China, and feel safe despite its insistence on the protection of its own interests without offering persuasive reasoning?” Unlike the international political and economic arenas, which are losing their balance, the Chinese economy actually seems to be steadily rising toward “Great Power.” There are various reasons many people predict that China will continue its long march to great power. China’s growth engine seems strong, with its large population of 1.3 billion people. The top 20% of China’s population, with an average annual household income of more than 100,000 yuan, plays a major role in the current consumption expansion. Additionally, the middle class, the 40% of the population who earn RMB 50,000-100,000 annually, will become a valuable contributor in China’s future consumption expansion. The Chinese government has been making steady, large-scale investments in the western regions, where the average GDP per capita was around USD 2,500 last year, far short of the national average GDP per capita of USD 4,300. The infrastructure built through such investments will result in an increase in the exchange of personnel and goods, helping the region maintain the momentum of growth. When key Chinese industries under state control, including telecommunications and electric power, open to the private sector and to foreign countries, they will surely serve as a basis for enormous growth. Leading Chinese companies that have just started venturing abroad will soon become accustomed to utilizing global resources and capacities, and will eventually gain confidence in the global market. 015 Summer 2011�POSRI Chindia Quarterly The hidden Chinese inferiority complex toward the West, which James McGregor pointed out in his book, One Billion Customers, began to disappear when Chinese companies landed in the birthplace of capitalism with grand fanfare. (As of March 2011, 198 Chinese companies were listed on the US stock exchanges.) ○● Rising monetary power and globalization of the yuan Even though potential economic growth factors underpin the long-term growth of the Chinese economy, the most important factor to the rise of China as a “Great Power” is the globalization of the yuan. Regardless of the different processes they took in becoming powerful nations, all Great Powers have something in common. To become hegemonic powers, especially in recent times, countries have needed monetary and military power, as well as the power to provide an ideology and values that can control the world. The authority that China exercises quantitatively as the world’s second largest economy does not yet equate to monetary power, or true economic power. In other words, China must become the key currency country, with leverage on the world economy, to have monetary power. For China to enjoy the status of being the key currency country, it must possess the capability and responsibility to overcome any global economic crisis. The Chinese yuan is now challenging the dollar. As the US-led monetary system wobbles after the global financial crisis, the yuan is gaining power. In 2008, China set up a task force to prepare for the globalization of the yuan under the People's Bank of China, and on July 1 of 2009, China launched a pilot project in five cities, including Shanghai and Guangzhou, to use the yuan for settlement of cross-border trade with Hong Kong and Macao. At that time, China’s swift move toward the yuan globalization surprised the world, but the possibility of the expansion of the yuan trade system was met with pessimism. Things have changed now. Beginning in June 2010, China expanded the system to cover 20 Chinese cities and 016 POSRI Chindia Quarterly�Summer 2011 :: China’s rise and “Go Out” policy foreign cities around the world, and the trade volume settled in yuan rose from RMB 3.59 billion at the end of 2009 to RMB 506.3 billion last year, a 141-fold increase in only one year. As one survey suggests, about half of Korean companies have been asked by their Chinese partners to settle their trade in yuan. This shows that, as a trade superpower, China has already laid the foundation for the globalization of the yuan. Moreover, as China gradually expanded and opened its capital market, the sale of yuan-denominated financial products was allowed in Hong Kong. Then, yuan-denominated bonds were successfully issued by foreign companies and international financial institutions, such as the Asian Development Bank. ○● Meticulous preparation and execution After the US-China summit in January 2011, the US supported adding the yuan to the IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDR) currency basket. G-20 nations also agreed on the addition of the Chinese currency to the SDR basket at the G-20 financial ministers meeting, held in March 2011. Though an exact timeline was not specified, such a move will surely give impetus to the globalization of the yuan. Needless to say, there is a long way to go for the strictly state-controlled Chinese financial system to satisfy the requirements for becoming the key currency country: adoption of floating exchange rates, independence of the Central Bank, and liberalization of capital inflow and outflow. These challenges are intrinsic to the fundamental system of the Chinese economy. Moreover, China gaining the trust and approval of the international community to exercise monetary power over the global economy seems far off. This is why some people predict that it will take more than 30 years for China to become the key currency country. China’s efforts to globalize the yuan, however, are being carried out with the goal of settling more than half the cross-border trade with emerging 017 Summer 2011�POSRI Chindia Quarterly countries in yuan in three to five years. It is also expected that China will expand the offshore yuan market in Hong Kong, further develop and distribute necessary financial products, and eventually open mainland China’s financial market. ○● China’s determination What draws our attention is not the degree of China’s success in the globalization of the yuan, or how soon it might reap fruits from its efforts, but rather China’s meticulously planned preparation for the future. In the short-term, it will be difficult for China to lead new international norms on global issues such as environment and energy; to create new values through innovation in industry and competition, and enable itself to disseminate such values; or to provide a new dominant ideology tantamount to freedom, peace and the protection of democracy.
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