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THIRD ASSESSMENT REPORT on IMPACTS of CLIMATE CHANGE on TROPICAL CYCLONES in the ESCAP/WMO TYPHOON COMMITTEE REGION Typhoon Committee DECEMBER 2019

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THIRD ASSESSMENT REPORT on IMPACTS of CLIMATE CHANGE on TROPICAL CYCLONES in the ESCAP/WMO TYPHOON COMMITTEE REGION Typhoon Committee DECEMBER 2019 THIRD ASSESSMENT REPORT ON IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE ESCAP/WMO TYPHOON COMMITTEE REGION Typhoon Committee DECEMBER 2019 TC/TD-No. 0018 COVER PHOTO: TYPHOON NORU FROM SPACE NASA astronaut Randy Bresnik photographed Super Typhoon Noru in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean on August 1, 2017, as the International Space Station passed overhead. NASA THIRD ASSESSMENT REPORT ON IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE TYPHOON COMMITTEE REGION ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Authors (Names in alphabetical order of Surname): Eun Jeong CHA, National Typhoon Center, KMA, Jeju, Republic of Korea Thomas R. KNUTSON, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey, U.S.A Tsz-Cheung LEE, Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, China Toshiyuki NAKAEGAWA , Meteorological Research Institute/Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Japan Ming YING, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai, China NOTE The designations employed in ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee (TC) publications and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion and whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of TC, ESCAP or WMO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Opinions expressed in TC publications are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of their agencies, their governments, TC, ESCAP or WMO. The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by TC, ESCAP or WMO in preference to others of a similar nature which are not mentioned or advertised. TC/TD-No 0018 © ESCAP/WMO TYPHOON COMMITTEE, 2019 ISBN 978-99965-779-7-0 ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Secretariat Avenida 5 de Outubro, Coloane Macao, China Tel.: (+853) 88010531 • Fax: (+853) 88010530 E-mail: [email protected] Published in December 2019 Printed in Macao, China by Unique Network Printing Fty, Ltd. - December, 2019 The right of publication in print, electronic and any other form and in any language is reserved by ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee. Short extracts from Typhoon Committee publications may be reproduced without authorization, provided that the complete source is clearly indicated. Editorial correspondence and requests to publish, reproduce or translate these publication in part or in whole should be addressed to the Secretary of ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee. TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword ix Preface xi Executive Summary xiii CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION 1 CHAPTER 2 - OBSERVED TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY AND CHARACTERISTICS 3 2.1 Tropical Cyclone Frequency 3 2.2 Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Integrated Storm Activity Metrics 4 2.3 Prevailing Track and Tropical Cyclone Exposure 9 2.4 Tropical cyclone related rainfall 11 2.5 Storm Surge 11 2.6 Summary 12 References 12 CHAPTER 3 - DETECTION AND ATTRIBUTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE CHANGES 15 3.1 Introduction 15 3.2 TC-Climate Change Case Studies 16 3.3 Summary 23 References 24 CHAPTER 4 - TROPICAL CYCLONE IMPACTS IN THE TYPHOON COMMITTEE REGION 29 4.1 Climatological mean features of tropical cyclones (TCs) 29 4.2 Frequency and intensity of landfalling and affecting tropical cyclones 29 4.2.1 Climatology of landfalling/affecting TCs 29 4.2.2 Frequency and intensity of landfalling/affecting TCs 29 4.3 Tropical cyclone induced precipitation 33 4.4 High winds 34 4.5 Storm surge and extreme sea levels 35 4.6 Casualties and economic losses 36 4.7 Summary 37 4.7.1 Frequency and intensity of landfalling and affecting tropical cyclones 37 4.7.2 Tropical cyclone induced precipitation 37 4.7.3 High winds 37 4.7.4 Storm surge and extreme sea levels 37 4.7.5 Casualties and economic losses 37 References CHAPTER 5 - FUTURE PROJECTIONS 41 5.1 Introduction 41 5.2 Frequency 41 5.3 Intensity 43 5.4 Precipitation Rates 45 5.5 Shifts in Activity/Track Pattern and Landfalling 45 5.6 Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge 46 5.7 Casualties and Economic Losses 47 5.8 Assessment for the WNP by a WMO Task Team on TCs and Climate Change 47 5.9 Conclusions 48 References 67 CHAPTER 6 - UNCERTAINTIES 79 6.1 Introduction 73 6.2 Historical trend assessment 73 6.2.1 Data Completeness and Homogeneity 73 6.2.2 Methodologies for Homogenization and Trend Detection 74 6.3 Future trend projection 75 6.4 TC risk assessment 76 6.4.1 Wind field 76 6.4.2 Rainfall 76 6.4.3 Storm surge 77 6.5 Summary 77 References 77 CHAPTER 7 - RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE PROGRESS 83 7.1 TC Observed Data and Trend Analysis 83 7.2 Detection and Attribution 83 7.3 Model projections 83 7.4 Impact assessments 83 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 85 APPENDIX I - SUMMARY OF SURVEY RESULTS 87 ANNEX I 95 FOREWORD he United Nations great pleasure to release the Third Assessment Economic and Report (TC-AR3). TSocial Commission for Asia (ESCAP)/ TC-AR3, an update of the previous two reports, World Meteorological includes observational facts about typhoon Organization (WMO) frequency, intensity, track, precipitation and Typhoon Committee storm surge in the region, trends in the context (TC) has been working of global warming, possible impact on Members to reduce the damages of the Typhoon Committee, uncertainty analysis caused by tropical cyclone of the results, and recommendations for related disasters to the lives follow-up research. Thus this is a product that will and property of people in the Asia-Pacific region contribute to our understanding of typhoon in a through its efforts in four areas: meteorology, changing climate and the continuous improvement hydrology, disaster prevention and mitigation, of the long-term typhoon resilience strategy. and education and training, helping achieve the goals set in such global agendas as the Sendai On the occasion of its release, I would like to Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015- express, on behalf of the UNESCAP/WMO 2030 and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Typhoon Committee, my sincere gratitude and Development. respect to all the members in the assessment expert team for their outstanding, hard and The impact of climate change on typhoons is voluntary work. At the same time, my appreciation receiving increasing attention from scientific goes to ESCAP, WMO, Secretariat of the Typhoon community, public, and policy makers. The Committee and its Members for their strong projection by the Intergovernmental Panel on support! Climate Change (IPCC) for the 21st century suggests that global tropical cyclones are likely to decrease or remain the same in frequency but increase in average wind speed and precipitation rate. The Typhoon Committee, a regional intergovernmental organization for typhoon prevention and mitigation in Asia-Pacific, UNESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee attaches great importance to the issue of typhoon Chair: Mr. Yu Wong in a changing climate. TC began to develop the December 2019 Assessment Reports on Typhoon in a Changing Climate in the Asia-Pacific Region in 2008, with two outputs (TC-AR1, TC-AR2) released in 2010 and 2012 respectively, which have attracted widespread attention from the international community. Their main findings or conclusions were cited in the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC (IPCC-AR5, released in 2013). Based on the two previous assessment reports, the Typhoon Committee has continued to devote great research efforts to such areas as the homogenization of typhoon observations, typhoon positioning and intensity estimation techniques, the relationship between typhoon climate and global change, and numerical simulation of future trends, with significant progress made. It is our ix x PREFACE n recent years, the occurrence of tropical expert term completed the first draft of TC-AR3 cyclone anomalies around the world has and an expert group meeting was held in 2018. Itriggered a constant concern about the The TC-AR3 was finalized and published in 2019. climate characteristics of tropical cyclones and their relationship to global warming. As the TC-AR3 is an update of the previous two reports. official organization in the Asia-Pacific region for It contains detailed observations on the frequency international collaboration for disaster prevention of tropical cyclones, intensity, movement, and reduction, the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon precipitation and storm surge in the region, trends Committee attaches great importance to typhoon under the background of global change, and climate change, and the Working Group on possible impacts to the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Meteorology has taken it as one of its key projects Committee Members. In addition, discussion of since 2008. The Working Group on Meteorology the uncertainty of the evaluation results and the started the compilation and editing of the follow-up related research work recommendations assessment report (series) on climate change on is also included. It is believed that the report Asia-Pacific typhoons. Two Assessment Reports will promote understanding in typhoon climate (TC-AR1, TC-AR2) were published in 2010 and change and improvement in long-term strategies 2012, respectively and received wide attention for typhoon disaster reduction. from the international community. The main conclusion was quoted in the Fifth Assessment On this occasion and on behalf of the ESCAP/ Report published by IPCC in 2013 (IPCC-AR5). WMO Typhoon Committee Working Group on Meteorology, I would like to express my gratitude The detection and prediction of tropical cyclone to all the experts in the expert team for their climate change in Northwest Pacific is challenging excellent, hard and unpaid work, and ESCAP, with uncertainty due to the lack of long-sequence WMO, Typhoon Committee and the Secretariat observations, limitations on tropical cyclone and all Members for the strong support! intensity analysis, and the heterogeneity of best- track datasets in the region. On basis of TC- AR2 and IPCC-AR5, a lot of research work has been carried out by international and Asia-Pacific typhoon researchers on the long-term sequence of tropical cyclones, the homogeneity of different ‘ best-track datasets, the relationship between global warming and tropical cyclone climate characteristics and future trends of numerical Working Group on Meteorology simulation.
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