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The Impact of Emirates Airline on the German Economy

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The Impact of Emirates Airline on the German Economy Institute of Air Transport and Airport Research The Impact of Emirates Airline on the German Economy Final Report May 2012 Cover Picture: Emirates Airbus 380 visiting ILA Berlin Air Show 2010 Photographer: Wolfgang Grimme, DLR Institute of Air Transport and Airport Research The Impact of Emirates Airline on the German Economy Final Report Tim Alers, Dr. Peter Berster, Prof. Dr. Hansjochen Ehmer, Monika Teresa Fuhrmann, Dr. Marc Gelhausen, Wolfgang Grimme, Stephan Horn, Hermann Keimel, Dr. Sven Maertens, Hendrik Nieße Release: 1.00 Deutsches Zentrum German Aerospace Center für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft Institute of Air Transport and Airport Research May 2012 Porz-Wahnheide Linder Höhe 51147 Köln Germany Head: Prof. Dr. Johannes Reichmuth Web: http://www.dlr.de/fw 2012-04-18 Release: 1.00 Page 1 Institute of The Economic Impact of Emirates Flights on Air Transport and Germany Airport Research Final Report Document Control Information Institute Director: Prof. Dr. Johannes Reichmuth Responsible author: Wolfgang Grimme Additional author(s): Tim Alers, Dr. Peter Berster, Prof. Dr. Hansjochen Ehmer, Monika Teresa Fuhrmann, Dr. Marc Gelhausen, Stephan Horn, Hermann Keimel, Dr. Sven Maertens, Hendrik Nieße Project / research task: The Impact of Emirates Airline on the German Economy Filename: Emirates_Report_v1.00_180412.doc Release: 1.00 Save date: 2012-04-18 Total pages: 139 This study was conducted for Emirates Airline. © 2012, DLR, Institute of Air Transport and Airport Research, Germany This document with all its parts is protected by copyright. Any use within or without the domain of the copyright act is illegal without a written consent of the DLR, Air Transport and Airport Research and will be prosecuted. This applies in particular to copying, translations, microfilm reproductions or converting, processing and storing this information on digital systems. 2012-04-18 Release: 1.00 Page 2 Institute of The Economic Impact of Emirates Flights on Air Transport and Germany Airport Research Final Report Change Log Release Date Changed Pages or Chapters Comments 1.00 18 April 2012 Final version 2012-04-18 Release: 1.00 Page 3 Institute of The Economic Impact of Emirates Flights on Air Transport and Germany Airport Research Final Report Content List of figures ............................................................................................................................ 6 List of tables ............................................................................................................................. 9 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................... 10 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 18 2 Overview – The Emirates business model and Emirates current activities in Germany ....................................................................................................................... 20 3 Analysis of the effects of connectivity to the international aviation network due to Emirates’ presence in Germany ......................................................................... 27 3.1 The importance of connectivity ................................................................................. 27 3.2 Connectivity for Germany ......................................................................................... 28 3.2.1 Non-stop connectivity ...................................................................................... 31 3.2.2 Connectivity for itineraries with one stop / transfer ......................................... 33 3.2.3 Connectivity to the 100 largest airports in the Eastern Hemisphere ............... 35 3.2.4 Comparison of the route networks of Emirates and Lufthansa ....................... 37 3.3 Connectivity for individual cities in Germany ............................................................ 41 3.3.1 Düsseldorf ....................................................................................................... 42 3.3.2 Hamburg ......................................................................................................... 44 3.3.3 Berlin ............................................................................................................... 46 3.3.4 Stuttgart ........................................................................................................... 49 3.4 Connectivity and Frequency ..................................................................................... 54 3.5 Connectivity index for German airports .................................................................... 57 3.6 Connectivity and capacity ......................................................................................... 60 3.7 Intermediate conclusions .......................................................................................... 65 4 Analysis of the effects of Emirates’ presence in Germany on passenger flows .............................................................................................................................. 67 4.1 Market development in Germany ............................................................................. 67 4.2 Market development at individual airports ................................................................ 71 4.3 Development of air fares .......................................................................................... 78 4.4 Intermediate conclusions .......................................................................................... 80 5 Analysis and quantification of economic effects for Germany ....................................... 82 5.1 Effects of existing passenger and cargo services .................................................... 83 5.1.1 Direct, indirect and induced employment ........................................................ 83 5.1.2 Catalytic effects ............................................................................................... 91 5.1.3 Incoming tourism ............................................................................................. 94 5.1.4 Outgoing tourism ........................................................................................... 103 5.1.5 Air cargo ........................................................................................................ 103 5.2 Effects of new services ........................................................................................... 110 5.2.1 Outlook for Germany for 2012 ....................................................................... 110 5.2.2 New services to Berlin and Stuttgart ............................................................. 111 5.3 Effects of the purchase of aircraft, engines, spare parts and equipment ............... 115 6 Discussion of the benefits of air transport market liberalisation for Germany ............. 119 6.1 Consequences of the liberalisation of air transport markets................................... 119 6.2 Literature review of worldwide liberalisation ........................................................... 121 6.3 Liberalisation’s impact on different stakeholders .................................................... 122 6.3.1 Secondary and hub airports .......................................................................... 122 6.3.2 Airlines and alliances .................................................................................... 123 6.3.3 Passengers ................................................................................................... 125 2012-04-18 Release: 1.00 Page 4 Institute of The Economic Impact of Emirates Flights on Air Transport and Germany Airport Research Final Report 7 Conclusions ................................................................................................................ 128 Annex ................................................................................................................................... 131 Definition of regions used throughout this report ............................................................. 131 Emirates’ Destinations ..................................................................................................... 133 Stakeholder Interviews .................................................................................................... 135 Literature.......................................................................................................................... 136 2012-04-18 Release: 1.00 Page 5 Institute of The Economic Impact of Emirates Flights on Air Transport and Germany Airport Research Final Report List of figures Figure 2-1: Comparison of itinerary between two secondary airports with Emirates and competing airlines / alliances ................................................................................. 21 Figure 2-2: Specific fuel consumption in kg per aircraft-kilometre flown ................................ 22 Figure 2-3: Comparison of operating costs for selected airlines ............................................ 23 Figure 2-4: Development of Emirates’ frequencies from German airports 1996-2012 ........... 24 Figure 2-5: Development of Emirates passengers on flights between Germany and Dubai (and vice versa) 2000-2011 ......................................................................... 26 Figure 3-1: Destination regions of origin-destination passengers on Emirates flights from Germany
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