Assessing Existing Local Government Fiscal Early Warning System Through Four State Case Studies: Colorado, Louisiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania

Assessing Existing Local Government Fiscal Early Warning System through Four State Case Studies: Colorado, Louisiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania Michigan State University Extension Michigan Center for Local Government Finance & Policy By Eric Scorsone and Natalie Pruett Back to Contents 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Introduction ��3 II. Overview of Fiscal Solvency Measures��4 III. Case Study Presentation: Four Existing Local Fiscal Warning Systems��5 Pennsylvania Early Warning System for Municipal Recovery �� 5 Ohio Fiscal Health Indicators ��10 Louisiana Early Warning System for Fiscal Administration �� 15 Colorado Fiscal Stability Initiative �� 23 IV. Ratio Analysis, Observations, and Recommendations ��27 Selecting Ratios �� 28 Setting Benchmarks �� 35 Scoring �� 36 Comparing Different Government Types �� 36 Timing of Analysis �� 36 Methodology Revision �� 36 Collaboration with Local Governments �� 37 V. Conclusion �� 38 VI. Appendices �� 39 Appendix I – Table 1: The Survey of Financial Condition Questions..................... 39 Appendix II – Ohio Fiscal Distress Designation Definitions ��40 Appendix III – Financial Health Indicators Report ...................................................42 VII. Bibliography �� 43 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report was made possible by participation from the states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Louisiana, and Colorado. These officials shared forthright explanations of the circumstances and structures of their respective fiscal early warning systems during interviews, which provided meaningful insight for the authors. These officials also supplied valuable the data sets that enabled the quantitative analysis of this report. Thank you to the Pennsylvania Department of Community and Economic Development, particularly Andrew Sheaf; the Ohio Auditor of State, particularly Diane Finn and David Thompson; the Louisiana Legislative Auditor Advisory Services Section, particularly Bradley Cryer and Steven Kraemer; and the Colorado Department of Local Affairs Division of Local Government, particularly Rachel Harlow-Schalk and Cynthia Thayer. 2 Back to Contents I. INTRODUCTION I. Introduction ��3 The Great Recession of 2007-2009, nearly a decade ago now, of cash solvency, budgetary solvency, long-run solvency and was the catalyst for a series of major financial problems in service-level solvency. These terms are still in wide use today. II. Overview of Fiscal Solvency Measures��4 American local governments. These problems saw the advent They reflect the fact that one may wish to consider a range of of over seven major municipal bankruptcies and dozens of time frames within which to measure fiscal distress. Generally other local emergencies and crisis situations. While these speaking, these four types of solvency categories have been III. Case Study Presentation: problems now appear to be safely in the rearview mirror, they perceived to fully encompass the universe of local fiscal and Four Existing Local Fiscal Warning Systems��5 have exposed deeper fault lines in the stability and resilience of service indicators. local governments across the country. For many states, these Pennsylvania Early Warning System for Municipal Recovery �� 5 For a variety of reasons, states have chosen a wide mix of problems have heralded a new era, which has resulted in the indicators and indexes from which to construct a fiscal early search for proactive strategies to prevent and mitigate financial Ohio Fiscal Health Indicators ��10 warning system. Some states may be focused strictly on short- instability before it becomes a crisis. Louisiana Early Warning System for Fiscal Administration �� 15 term cash and liquidity and the avoidance of payment problems. There is a long history of attempts to measure and identify local Other states have chosen based on a need to balance long-term Colorado Fiscal Stability Initiative �� 23 fiscal problems going back to the crisis of New York city in the interests and service provision with budget solvency. 1970’s. At that time, it became popular to attempt to use ratio This report surveys four state early warning systems: analysis, as first used in the private sector for credit analysis, IV. Ratio Analysis, Observations, and Recommendations ��27 Pennsylvania, Ohio, Louisiana, and Colorado. After presenting to use a series of ratios to identify local fiscal problems. These an overview of each state system in Section IV, it analyzes the Selecting Ratios �� 28 ratios were seen as predictive of potential problems that may ratio indicators used in each system in Section V by comparing arise in the ability of a local government to pay its bills as they Setting Benchmarks �� 35 the data and results for each state and provides observations come due. Scoring �� 36 and recommendations. The ultimate purpose of this report is to As computing power and data have improved, more states add depth to the literature around fiscal early warning systems Comparing Different Government Types �� 36 have joined in attempting to predict fiscal distress using ratios. by (1) presenting detailed explanations of four existing systems Timing of Analysis �� 36 Generally, these strategies have focused on a series of current and (2) analyzing the tradeoffs and implications of the four ratio ratio and long-term ratios to match up the scale and scope indicator approaches. This report asserts that there is no one Methodology Revision �� 36 of problems that may exist. The International City/County optimal system, only the right system based on the perceived Management Association (ICMA) developed the Financial Trend needs of policymakers in that particular location. Collaboration with Local Governments �� 37 Monitoring System (FTMS) and pioneered the terminology V. Conclusion �� 38 VI. Appendices �� 39 Appendix I – Table 1: The Survey of Financial Condition Questions..................... 39 Appendix II – Ohio Fiscal Distress Designation Definitions ��40 Appendix III – Financial Health Indicators Report ...................................................42 VII. Bibliography �� 43 Back to Contents 3 II. OVERVIEW OF FISCAL SOLVENCY MEASURES Fiscal early warning systems are constructed to measure some taken today are often not only informed by expectations for the form of solvency over some duration of time. The form of longer-term future but also then shape that future. Additionally, solvency and the duration of time varies considerably from one shorter-term and longer-term measures may portray differing system to another. The (ICMA) termed

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