Trident Replacement: the practical implications
Presentation to British Pugwash AGM
8 April 2008
J ohn Ainslie Coordinator, Scottish CND
Trident Replacement
Submarine Missile
Warhead Targeting “Successor” Submarine
New submarine Timeline 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Concept Design Initial Design Detail Design Outputs Initial Gate Build
Main Gate Nuclear-Powered Submarines 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28
Astut Successor MUFC e
Reactor for “Successor”
Rolls Royal Royce Navy PWR2 New Design
New Generation Nuclear Propulsion Plant (NGNPP)
“avoid pumped flow systems” Steve Ludham RR
“a modern & much simpler plant” Rear Admiral Matthews
USS Narwhal (1969 – 1999) When built - quietest submarine Continuous Patrols
One armed submarine on patrol at all times Alert – “measured in days” non-verifiable
“our planned future programme should take us up to 750 [patrols]” Rear Admiral Matthews
Patrols 1968-2007 300 2008-2060 ? 450 Total 750
Infrastructure - Devonport
Refit Dockyard
Infrastructure - Derby
Fuel Rod Fabrication
Infrastructure - Faslane
Submarine Base and Shiplift
Infrastructure - Coulport
Explosives Handling J etty Infrastructure - Dounreay
Submarine Reactor Prototype & overhaul of coolant pumps
The Scottish Question “the Parliament … calls on the UK Government not to go ahead at this time with the proposal in the White Paper, The Future of the United Kingdom’s Nuclear Deterrent” 14 June 2007
71 for 16 against 39 abstained 2 did not vote
If not Scotland where ?
1963 Polaris option - Falmouth Trident Replacement
Submarine Missile
Warhead Targeting Missile System
Underwater Launched Missile System (ULMS)
New US missile to replace Trident D5
In service by 2029
Initial concept studies started in 2007
Considered by Strategic Advisory Group November 2007
Missile options
24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 48 50 52 54 56 58 60
British “successor” submarine in-service 2024 – 2060
Trident D5 in service with US Navy until 2042
ULMS & SSBN(X) in service with US Navy from 2029
Underwater Launched Missile System
“any successor to the D5 system should be compatible with, or be capable or being made compatible with, the launch system for the D5 missile” Bush to Blair Dec 2006
“concepts for future submarines may have missile tubes larger than 87 inches in diameter”
ULMS Test Bed Request for Information 7 Nov 2007
Future RV system ?
Manoeuvrable Reentry Vehicle (MaRV)
Developed for nuclear Trident (E2 RV)
Revived for Conventional Trident
Option for ULMS ?
Operational independence ?
“without United States cooperation … Polaris would become ineffective after only a few months”
Sir Charles Ellworthy, CDS, March 1971
Trident Replacement
Submarine Missile
Warhead Targeting Nuclear Warhead
The special nuclear relationship
1958 Mutual Defence Agreement
Solly Zuckerman – no interest beyond Polaris
Polaris upgrade – to revive relationship
Peter J ones – “whether the UK had done it themselves”
The first UK thermonuclear bomb
Red Snow warhead Not based on Grapple design Anglicised version of
US Mk 28 warhead The Polaris family
Polaris Chevaline WE 177
Primary Primary Secondary US or UK UK design US design US design Origin Cleo test W 58 W 59
Polaris J ennie Reggie
WE 177B Katie Simon
WE 177A Katie A
Chevaline Harriet Reggie
WE 177C Katie A Reggie
source: www.nuclear-weapons.info Origin of the UK Trident design
UK design Anglicised US design “The warhead was designed “The warheads were in the UK” anglicised by the AWE” Bob Ainsworth Mar 08 National Archives 1978 – 1980 opened door to details 4 tests of UK lightweight of US designs; warhead; 50 kiloton yield 6 further tests 1980-87 Primary uses British Secondary probably derived High Explosive from US design (as with Polaris family)
US components in UK Trident warhead … it was decided on cost-effectiveness grounds to procure certain non-nuclear warhead components from the United States. (Bob Ainsworth)
Arming, Fusing & Firing System
Neutron Generator
Gas Transfer System ?
Future of the US nuclear stockplie
Life Extension
Reliable Replacement Warhead
US Life Extension Programmes (LEP)
B61-7/11 LEP underway
W80 LEP cancelled
W76 Major LEP
US Reliable Replacement Warhead (RRW)
More reliable ?
Safer
More secure
Increased weight and size
US Reliable Replacement Warhead (RRW)
Livermore design chosen
No funding FY 2008
Advanced Certification
Funding request FY 2009
US Nuclear Weapon Reviews
Report date
Congress Commission 2008
Policy Review 2009
Posture Review 2010
Options for British warheads
Life Extension or
High Surety Warhead
Life Extension underway since 2000
Britain will probably follow US lead
New UK High Surety Warhead
Features – IHE, FRP, No Be
Design Options
Design Previous tests Modified UK Trident None Modified UK TD-127 ?? Anglicised US WR1 US W89
Warhead components
Reentry Vehicle (RV) case
Life Extension Mk 4 RV Replace some fittings
New Warhead Larger Mk 5 RV New production
Plutonium pit
Life Extension No replacement Lifespan 60 years plus
New Warhead New Pit Fire Resistant
Pit Tube
Life Extension Replace pit tube
Tamper
Life Extension Beryllium No replacement
New Warhead Substitute for Beryllium
High Explosives
Life Extension US – replace after 30 yrs UK - EDC 37 High Explosive - replace after 16 ? years
New Warhead Insensitive High Explosives Safer, Larger & Heavier
Detonation System
Life Extension Replace detonators
New Warhead Optical initiated firing system
Secondary HEU
Life Extension No replacement Lifespan 60 years plus
New Warhead New HEU secondary
Interstage
Life Extension Remanufacture Fogbank
New Warhead Substitute for Fogbank Substitute for Beryllium
Radiation Case
Life Extension No replacement
New Warhead New simpler design
Arming, Fuzing & Firing System
Arming, Fuzing & Firing System
AWE vacancy
Warhead Electrical Engineer
Support the approval programme for the introduction of the system into UK Trident
AWE website
Support the approval programme for the introduction of the Mk4A AF&F system into UK Trident
Beechgrove Recruiting
Arming, Fuzing & Firing System
MK4A AF&F
key part of US W76-1 warhead upgrade / LEP
advanced fuzing options increased targeting flexibility and effectiveness increase the warfighting effectiveness of the D5 system
introduced in UK Trident system by 2017
Arming, Fuzing & Firing System
Life Extension upgrade to Mk4A
New Warhead New design
Neutron Generator
Life Extension MC4380 introduced 2003
New Warhead New design
Gas Transfer System
Life Extension Acorn (UK 2005) Acorn II (LEP)
New Warhead New design
Warhead Timeline
08 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56
W76-0 W76-1
and Reliable Replacement Warhead
Initial lifespan New AF&F Refurbished Warhead or High Surety Warhead
Modernisation of AWE Aldermaston
Orion Laser
Modernisation of AWE Aldermaston Hydrus Hydrodynamic Facility
Modernisation of AWE Aldermaston High Explosives Fabrication Facility
Modernisation of AWE Aldermaston Uranium Production Facility
Modernisation of AWE Aldermaston
Refurbish A90
Modernisation of AWE Aldermaston
Refurbish A45
Modernisation of AWE Aldermaston
New Supercomputers
Modernisation of AWE Burghfield New Warhead Assembly & Dissassembly Facility
Current Gravel Gerties
AWE budget 2005 - 2011 £ million 1000 900 800 700 600 Development 500 400 300 200 Running costs 100 0
05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
Tritium supply
2006 2054
Tritium decays with half-life of 12 years
No current source of UK tritium
New facility ? – linked to civil nuclear
Lower yield warhead the continued availability of a lower yield from our warhead Future of UK Nuclear Deterrent December 2006
UK Trident warhead – yield fixed at time of manufacture.
Future US & UK submarine warheads – possible variable yield.
Trident Replacement
Submarine Missile
Warhead Targeting Targeting system
Transfer of US targeting data
UKLO STRATCOM Omaha
OPLAN SACEUR 8044 Mons Belgium information STRATCOM Omaha NOTC MoD London
SWS IPT sanitised Bath / Corsham
Corsham
Corsham
Corsham
Site 3 Cold War bunker for PM and Queen
Corsham
DCSA HQ UK Defence Communications Hub
Corsham
Corsham Computer Centre
Trident targeting Targeting system
Magnetic Tape Cartridge
Target Fire Control Planning (Submarine) (Corsham) Target Change Message
Targeting system upgrades
SLBM Retargeting System (SRS)
operational in 2003
quickly, accurately & reliably retarget missiles to targets
timely & reliable processing of an increased number of targets
support adaptive planning
US and UK systems Targeting system upgrades
SLBM Planning & Operational Flexibility (SPOF)
follow on to SRS
funded 2010 - 2012
improve flexibility & responsiveness
enhance accuracy and effectiveness
application in UK ? Fire Control hardware upgrades
US UK In service
Mod 4 Mod 5 2003
Mod 6 Mod 7 2010
Targeting software for UK Trident
// Assess system response time suitability F1=beta1]*Obj_Time(targ_indx,sys_indx); //Assess Yield Suitabilty F2=beta[2]*Obj_Yield(yld) //Assess Probability of Kill Suitability for (int k=0; k
Targeting software for UK Trident
// Assess system response time suitability F1=beta1]*Obj_Time(targ_indx,sys_indx); //Assess Yield Suitabilty F2=beta[2]*Obj_Yield(yld) //Assess Probability of Kill Suitability for (int k=0; k
Targeting software for UK Trident
// Assess system response time suitability F1=beta1]*Obj_Time(targ_indx,sys_indx); //Assess Yield Suitabilty F2=beta[2]*Obj_Yield(yld) //Assess Probability of Kill Suitability for (int k=0; k
Targeting software for UK Trident
// Assess system response time suitability F1=beta1]*Obj_Time(targ_indx,sys_indx); //Assess Yield Suitabilty F2=beta[2]*Obj_Yield(yld) //Assess Probability of Kill Suitability for (int k=0; k
Assigned to NATO ?
NATO attack less likely
independent attack less likely
bilateral attack most likely
Closing Points
Dependence on US support
Early stage of long-term plan
Need greater transparency
Endangered species