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Bimonthly Progress Report Bimonthly Progress Report Issue 1 April 2006 Message from Nick Introducing the Future of It is exciting to be able to send out Humanity Institute this first Bimonthly report on the activities of the FHI. As you can The FHI is an interdisciplinary research institute and is part of the new see from this report, we have got James Martin 21st Century School at the University of Oxford. It is off to a vigorous start even though located within the Faculty of Philosophy. we are not yet fully staffed. Established on 29th November 2005, the FHI aims to become The agenda for the Institute is humanity's best effort at understanding and evaluating its own long- ambitious indeed, and the problems term prospects by looking at how anticipated technological we want to tackle are colossal. To developments could affect the human condition. There are currently be effective, we will need to build a three broad research areas: human enhancement, global catastrophic larger team of top research talent. risks, and methodological issues that arise in the study of ‘big picture’ Finding the resources to do this is a issues. Our research is outlined in more detail on page 3. priority. The FHI takes a multi-disciplinary approach, using scientific I want to express our gratitude to research methods, philosophical techniques, ethical analysis, and the benefactors who have made it policy evaluation tools. We pursue an opportunistic research agenda, possible to get started: James in that we focus on those questions that are amenable to analysis, and Martin (who is mentioned again on where new insights would bring the greatest payoff in terms of page 2 of this report); and the improving humanity's ability to navigate its future. We are committed Bright Horizons Foundation and to the highest standards of scholarship and research, and we work to one anonymous philanthropist who facilitate public engagement and informed discussion among have contributed funding for our stakeholders in government, industry, academia, and the non-profit pilot program on global sector. catastrophic risk. There are currently five members of staff working at the FHI: our director, Dr Nick Bostrom; junior research fellow, Dr Rebecca Dr Nick Bostrom, Director, FHI Roache; research associate, Dr Anders Sandberg; projects coordinator, Jo Armitage; and projects officer, Miriam Wood. Find out more about us on page 5. 1 News Award for James Martin The Sheldon Medal has been Research awarded to Dr James Martin, in recognition for the funding he has Nick Bostrom has two books currently in progress: How Can Nature st Be Ethically Improved? (edited with Julian Savulescu), and Global provided for the James Martin 21 Catastrophic Risks (edited with Milan Cirkovic). Both are being Century School, which includes published by Oxford University Press. He also has five journal articles the FHI. A maximum of one medal and six contributed book chapters awaiting publication. A list of his is awarded each year. Dr Martin is recent publications is given on page 6. the third recipient of the medal, Anders Sandberg published a letter – ‘Epic gains to be had in with Lord Wolfson FBA, longer life’ – in the Financial Times on March 3rd, and also has a Chairman of the Wolfson forthcoming essay, ‘Doubting Ageing’, in the magazine Persuader, on Foundation and Mr Wafic Saïd the subject of life extension. Rebecca Roache’s paper, ‘A Defence of having been honoured in previous Quasi-Memory’, is forthcoming in Philosophy. years. The Chancellor, Lord Patten of Conferences, Seminars, and Committees Barnes, said: ‘This medal is reserved for those donors who Nick Bostrom has recently presented to The Royal Society for the have contributed in a very Encouragement of Arts, Manufacturers and Commerce, and to the significant way to the development Princeton Center for Human values, on topics related to the work of and strength of the University. It is the FHI. He has been invited to give keynote presentations later this only given to the University’s most year at Stanford; University of Utah; St Gallen, Switzerland; Tempe, generous and dedicated friends, Arizona; and Oxford. In addition, he is participating on the planning among whom we count Dr James committee for the Government Consultation Exercise on the Wider Martin.’ Implications of Science and Technology, organised by the Horizon Scanning Centre at the Office of Science and Technology. Further details about his presentations are given on page 7. Anders Sandberg presented ‘Biotechnology and the promise of tailor-made medicine’ at the Amigo Society, Brussels, in 21 February 2006; and ‘The Transhumanist Vision’ on March 9 at the Universidad de Alcalá de Henares as part of ‘Segundas Jornadas sobre Convergencia Ciencia-Tecnología,’ sponsored by the Vodafone Foundation. st 21 Century Advanced Research Seminars In conjunction with Oxford’s Program on the Ethics of the New Biosciences (BEP), the FHI runs a series of seminars during term time, which are open to scholars and Oxford graduate students. During each seminar, a speaker presents a paper that addresses a topic relevant to Dr Martin with the Sheldon Medal the research interests of the FHI or the BEP, and this is followed by a group discussion. Hilary Term sessions will take place on Tuesdays, 2-4pm, in the Lecture Room, Philosophy Faculty, 10 Merton Street. For further details about the seminar series, or to receive advance copies of the papers, please contact Miriam Wood ([email protected]). Media Since its creation last year, the FHI has attracted media attention on an international scale. In the UK, Nick Bostrom has been interviewed about the FHI’s work by – among others – The Observer, The Guardian, The Sunday Times, The New Scientist, the BBC, and Channel 4. In addition, he has been interviewed on radio, television, and in print in the USA, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Spain, Sweden, the Netherlands, Russia, Brazil, and Central America. For a complete list of recent media appearances, please see page 7. 2 More About the FHI FHI Research Programmes FHI Hosts International Methodology Workshop The Institute addresses three broad research areas: human transformation, th global catastrophic risk, and the future of intelligent life. Within these On 13 March, in advance of the areas, we have an initial portfolio of six research programmes: James Martin Institute inaugural 2006 World Forum, the FHI held a Area 1: Ethics and Human Enhancement ‘Big Issues for Humanity’ 1 Human potential. Questions include: advanced methodology workshop. • How can we use science, medicine, and technology to improve human Speakers included Joel Garreau cognitive performance, healthy lifespan, mood and motivation, and (Washington Post), Julian reproductive choices? How do different kinds of interventions interact? Savulescu (University of Oxford), • How can we predict whether an intervention will genuinely improve James Hughes (Trinity College, our lives? Connecticut), William Bainbridge 2 Ethics, judgments, and public perception of human enhancement. (National Science Foundation), and Questions include: Nick Bostrom (FHI). • How do different demographics and cultures evaluate possible changes in the human condition? What factors influence these evaluations? Are there common biases and errors? Can critical normative analysis help reduce biases and errors? How are concepts such as dignity, authenticity, nature, and justice to be understood in this context? • What are the implications for public policy? 3 ENHANCE: Enhancing Human Capacities: Ethics, Regulation and European Policy This is a multinational research project funded by the European Commission, in collaboration the University of Stockholm, University of Clockwise from left: Anders Sandberg, Maastricht, and University Vita Saluta-San Raffaele. The objective is to Julian Savulescu, Joel Garreau, Rebecca conduct a scientific review of enhancement technologies to extend Roache, Justin Holme, Nicholas Shackel, lifespan, or to improve cognition, mood, or physical performance, in the Toby Ord, James Hughes. near- to mid-term, and to perform an ethical evaluation of these prospects. The FHI also participated in the Area 2: Global Catastropic Risk World Forum, which is to be held 4 Mapping global catastrophic risk. Questions include: every other year. It was a great • What are the biggest threats to the survival of the human species? success and was attended by Which other risks could have globally catastrophic ramifications? How scholars from around the world and probable are such disasters? What methodological tools are needed to watched by hundreds more via live study them? webcast. It was covered in the • Are there cost-effective ways to reduce risks? media, including a discussion on BBC Radio 4’s Moral Maze and an Area 3: Methodology and the Future of Intelligent Life article in The Guardian. 5 Radical future technologies. Questions include: • What impact would technologies such as molecular manufacturing or artificial intelligence have on our future? • How much can we know about the probability and time-scale of the development of radical technologies? 6 Indirect arguments and constraints. Questions include: • What are the long-term consequences of changing human nature? What does the big picture look like? Dystopian and utopian scenarios? • What can we conclude from alleged probabilistic coherence-constraints such as the simulation argument, the doomsday argument, and considerations related to the Fermi paradox? 3 Good, Better, Enhanced A research update from
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