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Bimonthly Progress Report

Issue 1 April 2006

Message from Nick Introducing the Future of

It is exciting to be able to send out Humanity Institute this first Bimonthly report on the

activities of the FHI. As you can The FHI is an interdisciplinary research institute and is part of the new see from this report, we have got James Martin 21st Century School at the . It is off to a vigorous start even though located within the Faculty of Philosophy. we are not yet fully staffed. Established on 29th November 2005, the FHI aims to become The agenda for the Institute is humanity's best effort at understanding and evaluating its own long- ambitious indeed, and the problems term prospects by looking at how anticipated technological we want to tackle are colossal. To developments could affect the human condition. There are currently be effective, we will need to build a three broad research areas: , global catastrophic larger team of top research talent. risks, and methodological issues that arise in the study of ‘big picture’ Finding the resources to do this is a issues. Our research is outlined in more detail on page 3. priority. The FHI takes a multi-disciplinary approach, using scientific I want to express our gratitude to research methods, philosophical techniques, ethical analysis, and the benefactors who have made it policy evaluation tools. We pursue an opportunistic research agenda, possible to get started: James in that we focus on those questions that are amenable to analysis, and Martin (who is mentioned again on where new insights would bring the greatest payoff in terms of page 2 of this report); and the improving humanity's ability to navigate its future. We are committed Bright Horizons Foundation and to the highest standards of scholarship and research, and we work to one anonymous philanthropist who facilitate public engagement and informed discussion among have contributed funding for our stakeholders in government, industry, academia, and the non-profit pilot program on global sector. catastrophic risk. There are currently five members of staff working at the FHI: our

director, Dr ; junior research fellow, Dr Rebecca Dr Nick Bostrom, Director, FHI Roache; research associate, Dr ; projects coordinator, Jo Armitage; and projects officer, Miriam Wood. Find out more about us on page 5.

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News Award for James Martin The Sheldon Medal has been Research awarded to Dr James Martin, in recognition for the funding he has Nick Bostrom has two books currently in progress: How Can Nature st Be Ethically Improved? (edited with Julian Savulescu), and Global provided for the James Martin 21 Catastrophic Risks (edited with Milan Cirkovic). Both are being Century School, which includes published by Oxford University Press. He also has five journal articles the FHI. A maximum of one medal and six contributed book chapters awaiting publication. A list of his is awarded each year. Dr Martin is recent publications is given on page 6. the third recipient of the medal, Anders Sandberg published a letter – ‘Epic gains to be had in with Lord Wolfson FBA, longer life’ – in the Financial Times on March 3rd, and also has a Chairman of the Wolfson forthcoming essay, ‘Doubting Ageing’, in the magazine Persuader, on Foundation and Mr Wafic Saïd the subject of . Rebecca Roache’s paper, ‘A Defence of having been honoured in previous Quasi-Memory’, is forthcoming in Philosophy. years. The Chancellor, Lord Patten of Conferences, Seminars, and Committees Barnes, said: ‘This medal is reserved for those donors who Nick Bostrom has recently presented to The Royal Society for the have contributed in a very Encouragement of Arts, Manufacturers and Commerce, and to the significant way to the development Princeton Center for Human values, on topics related to the work of and strength of the University. It is the FHI. He has been invited to give keynote presentations later this only given to the University’s most year at Stanford; University of Utah; St Gallen, Switzerland; Tempe, generous and dedicated friends, Arizona; and Oxford. In addition, he is participating on the planning among whom we count Dr James committee for the Government Consultation Exercise on the Wider Martin.’ Implications of Science and Technology, organised by the Horizon Scanning Centre at the Office of Science and Technology. Further details about his presentations are given on page 7. Anders Sandberg presented ‘Biotechnology and the promise of tailor-made medicine’ at the Amigo Society, Brussels, in 21 February 2006; and ‘The Transhumanist Vision’ on March 9 at the Universidad de Alcalá de Henares as part of ‘Segundas Jornadas sobre Convergencia Ciencia-Tecnología,’ sponsored by the Vodafone Foundation.

st 21 Century Advanced Research Seminars In conjunction with Oxford’s Program on the of the New Biosciences (BEP), the FHI runs a series of seminars during term time, which are open to scholars and Oxford graduate students. During each seminar, a speaker presents a paper that addresses a topic relevant to Dr Martin with the Sheldon Medal the research interests of the FHI or the BEP, and this is followed by a group discussion. Hilary Term sessions will take place on Tuesdays, 2-4pm, in the Lecture Room, Philosophy Faculty, 10 Merton Street. For further details about the seminar series, or to receive advance copies of the papers, please contact Miriam Wood ([email protected]).

Media Since its creation last year, the FHI has attracted media attention on an international scale. In the UK, Nick Bostrom has been interviewed about the FHI’s work by – among others – The Observer, The Guardian, The Sunday Times, The New Scientist, the BBC, and Channel 4. In addition, he has been interviewed on radio, television, and in print in the USA, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Spain, Sweden, the Netherlands, Russia, Brazil, and Central America. For a complete list of recent media appearances, please see page 7. 2

More About the FHI

FHI Research Programmes FHI Hosts International Methodology Workshop The Institute addresses three broad research areas: human transformation, th , and the future of intelligent life. Within these On 13 March, in advance of the areas, we have an initial portfolio of six research programmes: James Martin Institute inaugural 2006 World Forum, the FHI held a Area 1: Ethics and Human Enhancement ‘Big Issues for Humanity’ 1 Human potential. Questions include: advanced methodology workshop. • How can we use science, medicine, and technology to improve human Speakers included Joel Garreau cognitive performance, healthy lifespan, mood and motivation, and (Washington Post), Julian reproductive choices? How do different kinds of interventions interact? Savulescu (University of Oxford), • How can we predict whether an intervention will genuinely improve James Hughes (Trinity College, our lives? Connecticut), William Bainbridge 2 Ethics, judgments, and public perception of human enhancement. (National Science Foundation), and Questions include: Nick Bostrom (FHI). • How do different demographics and cultures evaluate possible changes in the human condition? What factors influence these evaluations? Are there common biases and errors? Can critical normative analysis help reduce biases and errors? How are concepts such as dignity, authenticity, nature, and justice to be understood in this context? • What are the implications for public policy? 3 ENHANCE: Enhancing Human Capacities: Ethics, Regulation and European Policy This is a multinational research project funded by the European

Commission, in collaboration the University of Stockholm, University of Clockwise from left: Anders Sandberg, Maastricht, and University Vita Saluta-San Raffaele. The objective is to Julian Savulescu, Joel Garreau, Rebecca conduct a scientific review of enhancement technologies to extend Roache, Justin Holme, Nicholas Shackel, lifespan, or to improve cognition, mood, or physical performance, in the , James Hughes. near- to mid-term, and to perform an ethical evaluation of these prospects. The FHI also participated in the Area 2: Global Catastropic Risk World Forum, which is to be held 4 Mapping global catastrophic risk. Questions include: every other year. It was a great • What are the biggest threats to the survival of the human species? success and was attended by Which other risks could have globally catastrophic ramifications? How scholars from around the world and probable are such disasters? What methodological tools are needed to watched by hundreds more via live study them? webcast. It was covered in the • Are there cost-effective ways to reduce risks? media, including a discussion on BBC Radio 4’s Moral Maze and an Area 3: Methodology and the Future of Intelligent Life article in The Guardian. 5 Radical future technologies. Questions include: • What impact would technologies such as molecular manufacturing or artificial intelligence have on our future? • How much can we know about the probability and time-scale of the development of radical technologies? 6 Indirect arguments and constraints. Questions include: • What are the long-term consequences of changing human nature? What does the big picture look like? Dystopian and utopian scenarios? • What can we conclude from alleged probabilistic coherence-constraints such as the simulation argument, the doomsday argument, and considerations related to the ?

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Good, Better, Enhanced A research update from Anders Sandberg What does the spice sage, scientific advances in these areas, References chewing gum, sending electric evaluate them from a http://www.enhanceproject.org/ current through the head and philosophical, ethical and social Kennedy DO, Pace S, Haskell C, genetic modifications have in perspective in order to facilitate Okello EJ, Milne A, Scholey AB, common? They can all be used to policy-making and public Effects of cholinesterase improve cognition. The number understanding of these dual-use inhibiting sage (Salvia officinalis) of means to improve mental technologies. on mood, anxiety and performance has grown At present I am creating a performance on a psychological tremendously over the last year. review of the state of the art in stressor battery. As neuroscience learns more cognitive enhancement as well as Neuropsychopharmacology. 2006 about how memory and attention an online electronic bibliography Apr; 31(4): 845-52. works it becomes increasingly database of relevant publications. Wilkinson L, Scholey A, Wesnes K. possible to intervene directly Enhancement has a huge scope, Chewing gum selectively using drugs, implants or genetic ranging from chocolate eaten improves aspects of memory in modifications. Originally during pregnancy (may have an healthy volunteers. Appetite. 2002 developed to help dementia enhancing effect on the Jun; 38(3): 235-6. patients, memory enhancing developing fetal brain) to the M. B. Iyer, U. Mattu, J. Grafman, M. drugs are now increasingly being impact of Internet search engines Lomarev, MD, S. Sato and E. M. used by healthy people who wish like Google. The next step will be Wassermann. Safety and to improve themselves. to delve into the deeper ethical cognitive effect of frontal DC The EU project ENHANCE and social issues: what forms of brain polarization in healthy investigates the latest cognitive enhancement are individuals. Neurology 2005; 64: developments within research on inherently problematic? How do 872-875 2005 biology, bio-gerontology and they fit into the practice of Dong Ping Tan, Qi-Ying Liu, neuroscience in order to reach a medicine? Under what conditions Naohiro Koshiya, Hua Gu, and deeper understanding of the are these technologies disruptive Daniel Alkon, Enhancement of ethical and philosophical to society, our concept of long-term memory retention and consequences when moving from selfhood or other values – and short-term synaptic plasticity in ‘therapy’ perspective towards the when are they instead promoting cbl-b null mice, PNAS March 28, one of ‘enhancement’. The human flourishing? Work is 2006, vol. 103, no. 13, 5125– project has four groups dealing ongoing at FHI for better 5130 with cognitive enhancement methodological tools to judge Mellott TJ, Williams CL, Meck WH, (Oxford, at the FHI and the proposed enhancements, as well Blusztajn JK., Prenatal choline Uehiro Centre for Practical as organization of workshops supplementation advances Ethics), life extension (Milan), bringing together representatives hippocampal development and mood enhancement (Bristol) and of neuroscience, social science enhances MAPK and CREB physical performance and philosophy to discover what activation, FASEB J. Mar; 18(3): (Stockholm). The aim is to the individual fields cannot. 545-7. (2004) document current and imminent

Contact the FHI If you would like to know more about the FHI, or if you have any comments relating to the newsletter, we would be pleased to hear from you. Please contact Miriam Wood in the first instance with any queries. The Future of Humanity Institute Suite 7, Littlegate House 16/17 St Ebbe’s Street Telephone: +44 1865 286279 Oxford Email: [email protected] OX1 1PT http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk 4

FHI Staff

Dr Nick Bostrom (Director) Nick Bostrom's research covers issues in the foundations of probability theory, global catastrophic risk, ethics of human enhancement, and consequences of potential future technologies such as artificial intelligence and nanotechnology, and related areas. He has published more than 100 articles and several books – details of some of which appear on page 3 – and his writings have been translated into more than 15 languages. Bostrom has a background in physics and computational neuroscience as well as philosophy. Before moving to Oxford, he taught philosophy at Yale University. He is also a former British Academy Postdoctoral Fellow. He worked briefly as an expert consultant for the European Commission in Brussels and for the Central Intelligence Agency in Washington DC. Bostrom is a frequently sought-after commentator in the media, having done nearly 200 interviews for television, radio, and print media. Dr Rebecca Roache (Junior Research Fellow) Rebecca Roache studied philosophy at the universities of Leeds and Cambridge, receiving a Ph.D. from the latter in 2002. She then spent three and a half years working in IT, and a short spell teaching philosophy at the University of London, before joining the Future of Humanity Institute in 2006. Her research interests centre around issues relating to personhood. In particular, she is interested in the extent to which our thought, self-conception, and patterns of self-concern are products of the sort of beings we are, biologically; and the effects that enhancing human capabilities might have on our beliefs about personhood. Dr Anders Sandberg (Research Associate) Anders Sandberg is a Swedish neuroscientist, science debater, futurist, and author. He holds a Ph.D. in computational neuroscience from Stockholm University and has studied computer models of human memory at the Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden. He has also been scientific producer for the neuroscience exhibition ‘Se Hjärnan!’ (‘Behold the Brain!’), organized by Swedish Travelling Exhibitions, the Swedish Research Council and the Knowledge Foundation that is touring Sweden 2005-2006. He is co-founder of and writer for the think tank Eudoxa. His other interests include physics, astronomy, biomedicine, psychology, complexity theory, art, sciencefiction, roleplaying, computer graphics, artificial intelligence, cognitive science, information visualization, intelligence amplification technologies, and the philosophy and politics of human enhancement. Anders is the Postdoctoral Research Assistant for the Oxford ENHANCE Project and Uehiro Centre for . Jo Armitage (James Martin Projects Coordinator) Jo has worked for the Centre for Criminology, St Hilda’s College and OUP during her time in Oxford. She has a BA from the University of Manchester, and a postgraduate qualification in personnel management from the Metropolitan University of Manchester.

Miriam Wood (James Martin Projects Officer) Miriam graduated from Cambridge University in June 2004. She spent a year working in Staff Development at the Oxford University Library Services before joining the Future of Humanity Institute as Projects Officer.

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Nick Bostrom’s Recent Publications Books • 2006. How Can Human Nature be Ethically Improved? ed. with Julian Savulescu. (Oxford University Press: Oxford), forthcoming. • 2006. Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. with Milan Cirkovic. (Oxford University Press: Oxford), forthcoming. Journal Papers • 2006. “Status Quo Bias in Bioethics: The Case for Cognitive Enhancement”, Ethics, forthcoming. • 2006. “Sleeping Beauty and Self-Location: A Hybrid Model”, Synthese, forthcoming. • 2006. “Ethical Principles in the Creation of Artificial Minds”, Analysis and Metaphysics, forthcoming, October 2006. • 2006. “What is a Singleton”, Linguistic and Philosophical Investigations, forthcoming, March 2007. • 2006. “Ethical Issues in Advanced Artificial Intelligence”, Review of Contemporary Philosophy, forthcoming, August 2006. • 2005. “How Unlikely is a Doomsday Catastrophe?" Nature, Vol. 438, No. 7069, p. 754 + supplementary materials. (with ). • 2005. “The Simulation Argument: Reply to Brian Weatherson,” Philosophical Quarterly, Vol. 55, No. 218, pp. 90-97. • 2005. “A History of Transhumanist Thought,” Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol. 14. • 2005. “Recent Arguments about Life-Extension,” Aging Horizons, No. 3, Autumn/Winter issue, pp. 28-34. • 2005. “In Defence of Posthuman Dignity,” Bioethics, Vol. 19, No. 3, pp. 202-214. • 2005. “Understanding Quine’s Thesis of Indeterminacy,” Linguistic and Philosophical Investigations, Vol. 4, No. 1, pp. 60-96. • 2005. “Transhumanist Values,” Review of Contemporary Philosophy, Vol. 4, No. 1-2, pp. 87-101. • 2005. “The Fable of the Dragon-Tyrant,” Journal of Medical Ethics, Vol. 31, No. 5, pp. 273-277. Contributed Book Chapters, Conference Proceedings, and Articles • 2007. “The Ethics of Artificial Intelligence.” The Cambridge Handbook of Artificial Intelligence, eds. William Ramsey and Keith Frankish (Cambridge University Press), forthcoming. • 2007. “Future of Humanity.” Invited article for Companion to Philosophy of Technology, eds. Jan-Kyrre Berg Olsen, Stig Andur Pedersen, and Vincent F. Hendricks (Blackwell), forthcoming. • 2006. “Nanoethics and Technological Revolutions: A Précis.” Nanotechnology Perceptions: A Review of Ultraprecision Engineering and Nanotechnology, Vol. 2, March 2006 Issue. • 2006. “The Singularity.” Invited chapter in Better Humans? The ethics and politics of human enhancement, eds. Paul Miller and James Wilsdon (DEMOS, January 26th 2006). • 2006. “Why I Want to be a Posthuman When I Grow Up.” Invited chapter in Medical Enhancement and Posthumanity, eds. Bert Gordijn and Ruth Chadwick (Taylor and Francis, 2006). • 2006. “Growing Up: Human Nature and Enhancement Technologies” Invited chapter in Tomorrow’s People: The Challenge to Human Nature, ed. Ellen Mitchell. • 2006. “Dinosaurs, Dodos, Humans?” Invited article for Global Agenda, the annual publication of the World Economic Forum, January 2006, pp. 230-231. • 2005. “The Fable of the Dragon-Tyrant” Linguistic and Philosophical Investigations, Vol. 4, No. 2. (Reprinted from Journal of Medical Ethics.) • 2005. “Re: The Benevolent Dragon” Journal of Medical Ethics, 24 June 2005, 31/5/273#332, e-letter section. • 2005. “Scientist find death can damage your health” Journal of Medical Ethics, 31/5/273#308, e-letter section. • 2005. “In Defence of Posthuman Dignity” Linguistic and Philosophical Investigations, Vol. 4, No. 2. (Reprinted from Bioethics).

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• 2005. “The Future of Humankind: Heaven, Hell, with Stops Along the Way.” Review of “Radical Evolution: The Promise and Peril of Enhancing Our Minds, Our Bodies – and What it Means to be Human” by Joel Garreau. Scientific American, July, pp. 86-87. • 2005. “Observation Selection Theory and Cosmological Fine-tuning.” invited chapter in Universe or Multiverse?, ed. Bernard Carr (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, 2005). • 2005. “A Proactive Response to the Tsunami Disaster.” BetterHumans, 01/19/2005. • 2005. “A Short History of Transhumanist Thought” contributed chapter to The Prospect of Immortality, by R. Ettinger, with Comments by Others,” ed. Charles Tandy, in the Cultural Classics Series (Ria University Press, Palo Alto, California, 2005), forthcoming. • 2005. “Why Make a Matrix? And Why You Might Be In One.” contributed chapter for More Matrix and Philosophy, ed. William Irwin (Open Court: New York), in press. Nick Bostrom’s Recent Invited Keynotes and Other Presentations • 2006. “Political and Ethical Challenges for Society from the Prospect of Life-Extension.” Invited keynote address for the 2nd World Aging & Generations Congress (St. Gallen, Switzerland, 27-29 September). • 2006. “Existential Risks and Artificial Intelligence” Invited keynote at the Singularity Summit (Stanford, 13 May) • 2006. “Human Capital” Invited lecture for The Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures, and Commerce (London, 22 March). • 2006. “Cognitive Enhancement” Invited plenary presentation at the World Forum for Science and Civilization (Oxford, 14-17 March). • 2006. “Existential Risks: what’s the probability that humanity will go extinct in the 21st century? What can we do to reduce the probability?” Invited presentation for the World Forum for Science and Civilization (Oxford, 14-17 March). • 2006. “Human Enhancement, Transhumanism, and Genetics.” Keynote address for Great Expectations: On our genetic future (Amsterdam, 21 February). • 2006. “Transhumanist Values.” Invited speaker at the Institute for Science, Innovation & Society (Nijmegen, 21 Feburary). • 2006. “Cognitive Enhancement” Invited speaker at the Forbidding Science: Balancing Freedom, Security, Innovation & Precaution conference (Tempe, Arizona, January 10-11). • 2006. “The Transhumanist Vision.” Invited closing keynote presentation for The Future of Human Nature: Science, Ethics, and Democracy (University of Utah, date TBA). • 2005. “Status Quo Bias in Bioethics.” Invited speaker for the DeCamp Seminar Series at the Princeton Center for Human Values (Princeton, 30 November) Nick Bostrom’s Recent Media Appearances • Isis Magazine. 2006. Interviewed about what kinds of technological change students alive today can expect to experience in their lifetime. • Eureka (French magazine). 2006. Interviewed about human nature. • Muy interesante (popular science magazine for Central America). 2006. Main feature (15-20 pages) on existential risks. • The Observer (UK newspaper). 2006. Interviewed about his RSA lecture and the prospects of human enhancement technologies. • Galileu (Brazilian science magazine). 2006. Interviewed about the science of life extension. • Guardian (UK newspaper). 2006. Feature interview about the work of the Oxford Future of Humanity Institute, and about transhumanism. • CNN Future Summit. 2006. Interviewed about a variety of future-related topics. • The Meaning of the 21st Century (TV documentary). 2006. Reading from his “Letter from Utopia” • Philosophy Now. 2006. Interviewed about David Pearce’s work. • CBC (Canadian Broadcasting Corporation television). 2006. Interviewed about the future of aging. 7

• Science & Avenir (French science magazine). 2006. Interviewed about the Future of Humanity Institute and transhumanism. • London Update.2006. Interviewed about transhumanism. • ABC News documentary. 2006. Interviewed about global catastrophic risks and threats to human survival. • The Future (Dutch National Television). 2006. Followed for one day and interviewed about his work and about transhumanism. • BBC World Service. 2006. Interviewed about aging and life-extension. • The Today Program (Channel 4, UK Radio). 2006. Interviewed about human enhancement. • Good Morning Scotland (BBC Radio). 2006. Interviewed about life-extension. • Radio Oxford. 2006. Interviewed about the ethics and science of life-extension. • Catastrophe (UK magazine). 2006. Interviewed about the Future of Humanity Institute and its interdisciplinary work. • Volkskraut (Dutch newspaper). 2006. Interviewed at length about his work, and about human enhancement technologies. • Discover Magazine. 2006. Interviewed in relation to Nature publication on the cosmic disaster frequency. • The Sunday Times. 2005. Interviewed about the ENHANCE project. • Die Welt. 2005. Interviewed in relation to Nature publication on the cosmic disaster frequency. • USA Today. 2005. Interviewed in relation to Nature publication on the cosmic disaster frequency. • New Scientist. 2005. Interviewed in relation to Nature publication on the cosmic disaster frequency. • Philosopher’s Magazine. 2005. Asked about the Future of Humanity Institute. • Gestión. 2005. Profiled in an article on thinkers “whose ideas are having or will have a large impact in the business landscape”. • Science and Spirit. 2005. Interviewed about the anthropic principle and cosmology • Science and Theology News. 2005. Interviewed about the anthropic principle and Leon Susskind • La Revue mensuelle. 2005. Interviewed about himself and about transhumanism. • TV Documentary. 2005. Interviewed about artificial intelligence and its future prospects. • Chemical & Engineering News. 2005. Interviewed about the simulation argument. • NanoAging. 2005. Interviewed about life-extension and related matters. • Boston Globe. 2005. Interviewed about the future of artificial intelligence. • Gehirn & Geist. (German edition of Scientific American Mind). 2005. Interviewed about cognitive enhancers. • National Journal. 2005. Interviewed about global catastrophic risk. • Discovery Channel. 2005. Interviewed about the simulation argument and about whether there is extraterrestrial life. • Independent film company. 2005. Interviewed for trailer, on the possibilities of the 21st century. • Mens Health (Russia). 2005. Interviewed about future possibilities. • Independent filmmaker. 2005. Interviewed for documentary on transhumanism. • Conference video for Transvision05. 2005. Interviewed about transhumanism and bioethics. • Tecnohumano fundacion video. 2005. Interviewed about transhumanism and the developing world. • Conference video for Transvision05. 2005. Interviewed about transhumanism in general. • Radio lab WNYC. 2005. Interviewed about transhumanist philosophy. • The Guardian. 2005. Interviewed about future prospects for humanity. • Channel 4. 2005. Consulting for planned documentary on future humans. • Hartford Courant. 2005. Interviewed about transhumanism. • Mail on Sunday. 2005. Interviewed about artificial intelligence and the CYC project. • Spanish Transhumanist Gazzett.2005. Interviewed about transhumanism. • BBC News (television). 2005. Interviewed about cosmetic neurology. • Swedish Radio. 2005. On the simulation argument. 8

• Daily Telegraph. 2005. About the launch of the Oxford Centre for the Science of the Mind. • Press Conference. 2005. For UK newspapers in London, about the launch of the Oxford Centre for the Science of the Mind. • Discover Magazine. 2005. On observation selection effects and traffic analysis. • Philosophy: The State of the Art (popular book on living philosopher). 2005. Interviewed about his work for, by the author, Nicholas Fern. • What We Still Don’t Know (TV documentary, channel 4 and PBS). 2005. Interviewed about the simulation arguments and artificial intelligence. • Discover Magazine. 2005. Interviewed about traffic analysis and observation selection theory.

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