Korean Domestic Cattle and Beef Updates and Outlook

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Korean Domestic Cattle and Beef Updates and Outlook Research Paper Korean domestic cattle and beef updates and outlook MLA’s Market Information Service – September 2014 Ryoko Uchida [email protected] Research Paper: Korean domestic cattle and beef updates and outlook KOREAN DOMESTIC CATTLE INDUSTRY Farm numbers The number of cattle farms in Korea has been decreasing constantly since the end of March 1986 (when the data series started, Statistics Korea). The number of cattle farms as at the end of June 2014 was 114,128 – an 88% fall compared to the March quarter in 1986. The majority of cattle farms in Korea remain small producers with less than 20 cattle per farm. In the June quarter 2014, more than two-thirds (69% or 78,569 farms) were registered as small farms, however, the proportion of small farms out of total has been declining steadily since 1986. As the number of small cattle farms has declined, larger farms have been increasing. As at the end of June 2014, farms owning 20 to 50 cattle totalled Figure 1 Korea cattle farm numbers 20,394, accounting for 18% of total cattle producers. 1,200 Also, producers who have 50 to 100 cattle and more 1,000 '000 number of farms than 100 cattle on their properties rose to 9,193 (8% of total farms) and 5,972 farms (5% of total farms), 800 respectively. 600 September 2014 400 The larger size of the Korean domestic cattle herd in recent years is likely to be attributed to an increasing 200 number of cattle being raised on bigger farms. 0 Farm operational costs Source:M Statisticsar-86 Korea Mar-87 Mar-88 Figure 2 ProportionMa rof-89 cattle per farm size In 2012, farm operation cost per 600kg lwt of Hanwoo 100% Mar-90 Mar-91 cattle averaged KRW4,629,796 (A$3,960 Mar-92 % share Mar-93 on-year (Statistics Korea). 80% Mar-94 Mar-95 60% Mar-96 However, the operation cost on small farms with less Mar-97 Mar-98 than 20 head of cattle during 2012 was down slightly 40% Mar-99 Mar-00 (1%) year-on-year, at KRW4,525,876 (A$3,875 Mar-01 20% Mar-02 2012, the average cost on small farms was 2% lower Mar-03 Mar-04 than the average for all farms for the first time since 0% Mar-05 Mar-06 2007, but it was still 6% (or KRW250,634, A$215 Mar-07 Source: Statistics Korea Mar-08 higher than the five-year average. 1986 1987 Mar-09 1988 Mar-10 M r 1 Figure 3 Korea farm1 9numbers89 by sizeless than 20 cattle 20 - 50 cattle a - 1 In contrast, the operation cost on larger farms (which Mar-12 1990 50 - 100 cattle more than 100 cattle include all farms more than 20 head) has steadily 1,200 1991 Mar-13 1992 Mar-14 1 increased since 2010. 1,000 '000 number of farms 1993 ) up 2% year- 1994 1995 The highest cost in 2012 was registered for farms with 800 1996 1997 more than 100 cattle, at KRW4,756,755 (A$4,070 1998 600 1999 up 4% and 13% compared to 2011 and the five-year average, respectively. It was also 3% above the average for all 2000 400 2001 farms. The difference in operation cost between small farms (less than 20 cattle) and large properties (more than 100 2002 200 2003 cattle) widened to KRW230,879 (A$198 2004 1 2005 A$=KRW1,168.31 (2012 annual average, Infoscan.co) 1 0 2006 less than 20 cattle 20 - 50 cattle 2007 ). In 1986-2013:20 ending08 number Source: Statistics Korea 50 - 100 cattle more than 100 cattle*2014: as at the end of June 1986 2009 1987 2010 Figure 4 Korea farm198 8operation cost per Hanwoo cattle 2011 (600kg lwt) 1989 2012 1990 2013 1 1991 2014* ) 5,000 1992 4,800 1993 KRW'000/head 1994 4,600 1995 1996 4,400 1997 4,200 1998 less than 20 heads more than 100 cattle all-farm19 9average9 4,000 2000 2001 3,800 2002 2003 1 1 3,600 ) in 2012, compared to KRW100,382 (A$86 2004 ) - 3,400 2005 2006 2007 1986-2013:200 ending8 number Source: Statistics Korea *2014: as at the end of June 2006 2009 MLA Market Information 2010 2011 2012 2013 2007 2014* 2 2008 2009 2010 1 ) five years earlier, in 2007. 2011 2012 Research Paper: Korean domestic cattle and beef updates and outlook Cattle production cost Korea’s per cattle (600 lwt of Hanwoo) production cost averaged KRW5,764,087 (A$4,935 (1%) on 2011. While the cost rise has been seen since 2010 across all farm sizes, the cost for bigger properties (farms with 50 to 99 head and more than 100 cattle) has been lower than the all-farm average. Farms with over 100 cattle seemed to be the most cost efficient in terms of total production cost, at KRW5,537,237 (A$4,740 increased 1% on 2011, it was still 4% below the all- farm average costs. In contrast, production costs on smaller farms have been higher than the all-farm average, with farms having less than 20 cattle having the highest production cost. The cost per head on small farms during 2012 was at KRW6,108,211 (A$5,230 1% on 2011 and 6% higher than the all-farm average. Cattle herd by farm size 2 ). Although it As the number of small farms declines, the cattle herd raised on such properties has also been falling. As of the end of June 2014, less than one-fifth (17% or 498,236 head) of the total cattle herd (excluding dairy cattle) were grown on small properties – a 38% (or 303,759 head) contraction compared to just five years ago (in 2009) and a substantial (70% or 1.2 million head) decrease on June 1983. In contrast, the number of cattle on larger farms (including all sizes of farms with more than 20 cattle) has been Figure 5 Korea cattle production cost per Hanwoo rising significantly. cattle (600kg lwt) September 2014 In the June quarter 2014, the number of cattle on properties with 20 to 50 head accounted for 22% of the total, at 6,400 6,200 638,094 head. The proportion of cattle on farms of this size has been between 20% and 26% since it first reached 6,000 KRW'000/head 2 5,800 20% at the end of 1995. 2 ) – up 5,600 5,400 ) in 2012 – up slightly less than 20 heads more than 100 cattle all-farm average The cattle number on farms with 50 to 100 head was less than 10% of total cattle (excluding dairy cattle) until the 5,200 5,000 end of 1997. However, the number of cattle on these farms gradually increased, with a total 641,290 head (or 4,800 22%) registered as at June 2014. 4,600 4,400 4,200 While larger farms owning more than 100 cattle held 4,000 only 1% (or 22,890 head) of total cattle (excluding dairy Source: Statistics Korea cattle) in the June quarter 1983, more than one-third 2006 (or 1.1 million head) were registered on such farms in the corresponding quarter 2014. Lower cattle 2007 production costs on larger farms are considered to be a factor assisting the growth, which has also driven the increase in Korea’s cattle herd in recent years. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2 Figure 6 Korea cattle number* by farm size 2012 A$=KRW1,168.31 (2012 annual average, Infoscan.co) 3,500 3,000 '000 head 2,500 2,000 less than 20 cattle 20 - 50 cattle 50 - 100 cattle more than 100 cattle 1,500 1,000 500 0 Source: Statistics Korea *Cattle number1 9= 8combined3 number of Hanwoo and beef cattle 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 MLA Market Information 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 3 2005 2006 1986-2013:200 ending7 number **2014: as at 2the0 0end8 of June 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014** Research Paper: Korean domestic cattle and beef updates and outlook National cattle herd Korea’s national cattle herd and slaughter have had three major cycles since the focus of the herd was transposed from farm work animals to beef production in the 1970s. These cycles have been of around 11-16 years duration (herd peak to peak) with a shorter sharper liquidation phase (3-5 years) and a longer steadier build up phase (6-10 years). However, the shift of the herd towards larger operations and alteration in government program responses to periods of over-supply has probably served to dampen the magnitude of these cycles. During this latest liquidation phase, the Korean Government has been targeting a herd size of 2.5- 2.6 million head (excluding dairy cattle). The ten-year average proportion of combined Hanwoo and beef cattle out of the total cattle herd (including dairy cattle) was 84%. Given the dairy cattle herd has remained relatively steady at around 450,000 head, the Government’s target for the total cattle herd (including dairy cattle) is highly likely to be between 3.0 million and 3.1 million head. Cattle herd and slaughter in 2013 The Korean national cattle herd including dairy cattle peaked in 2012, at 3.5 million head (ending stock, USDA). The total cattle herd in 2013 declined 4% from 2012, to 3.3 million head (ending stock), underpinned by higher slaughter levels than 2012, at 1.07 million head (up 10% year-on-year).
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