FLAT TOP COMPLEX Wildfire Science Documentation Report
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FLAT TOP COMPLEX Wildfire Science Documentation Report FINAL REPORT FROM THE WILDFIRE SCIENCE DOCUMENTATION GROUP MAY 2012 W I L D F I R E S C I E N C E D OCUMENTATION G ROUP ISBN No. 978-1-4601-3684-3 URL https://open.alberta.ca/publications/9781460136843 Notes: The numbers in this report were based on information available at the time the report was prepared and may be subject to change. Subsequent to the completion of this report, the wildfire management program in the former department of Sustainable Resource Development was transferred to the department of Agriculture and Forestry. W I L D F I R E S C I E N C E D OCUMENTATION R EPORT 2012 i W I L D F I R E S C I E N C E D OCUMENTATION G ROUP Acknowledgements The Wildfire Science Documentation Group would like to thank Sustainable Resource Development staff and those individuals who provided detailed documentation, data, on-site interviews, field work, and reconnaissance assistance. These elements significantly contributed to the development of this report. ii W I L D F I R E S C I E N C E D OCUMENTATION R E P O R T 2012 W I L D F I R E S C I E N C E D OCUMENTATION G ROUP TABLE OF CONTENTS WILDFIRE SCIENCE DOCUMENTATON .............................................................................. 1 Documentation Process ................................................................................................ 1 National and Provincial Wildfire Overview .................................................................... 1 BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF THE FLAT TOP COMPLEX ON MAY 14 AND 15 ................................... 2 Wildfire Science Background ..................................................................................... 13 CANADIAN FOREST FIRE DANGER RATING SYSTEM (CFFDRS) ......................................... 13 2011 WILDFIRE SEASON IN NORTH AMERICA ............................................................. 15 United States ............................................................................................................... 15 Canada......................................................................................................................... 16 Recent Historical Wildfire Trends in the Lesser Slave Area ..................................... 17 1968 VEGA WILDFIRE .......................................................................................................... 19 1998 MITSUE WILDFIRE ...................................................................................................... 20 2001 CHISHOLM WILDFIRE ................................................................................................. 21 2008 WAGNER WILDFIRE .................................................................................................... 22 2011 FLAT TOP COMPLEX ................................................................................................... 22 2011 RICHARDSON WILDFIRE ............................................................................................ 23 WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE FLAT TOP COMPLEX ................................................ 24 2010–2011 Fall and Winter Weather Conditions .................................................... 24 Early May 2011 Spring Moisture Conditions ............................................................. 25 FOLIAR MOISTURE CONTENT ............................................................................................... 26 GREENUP ............................................................................................................................ 26 Weather Conditions from May 10 to May 13 ............................................................ 29 Weather Conditions on May 14 and May 15 ............................................................ 30 Upper Air Analysis on May 14 and May 15 ............................................................... 36 FOREST FUELS IN THE FLAT TOP COMPLEX AREA ........................................................ 44 Fuel Types and Spatial Distribution ........................................................................... 44 ANTHROPOGENIC FUELS ..................................................................................................... 47 FUEL LOADING ...................................................................................................................... 47 PREDICTING WILDFIRE BEHAVIOUR .............................................................................. 49 Head Fire Intensity Calculations ................................................................................ 57 OBSERVED WILDFIRE BEHAVIOUR FOR THE FLAT TOP COMPLEX AREA ..................... 60 W I L D F I R E S C I E N C E D OCUMENTATION R EPORT 2012 iii W I L D F I R E S C I E N C E D OCUMENTATION G ROUP Observed Wildfire Behaviour for SWF-056 ................................................................ 60 INFLUENCE OF INTERFACE FUELS ON WILDFIRE BEHAVIOUR FOR SWF-056 .................. 65 Observed Wildfire Behaviour for SWF-065 ................................................................ 70 INFLUENCE OF INTERFACE FUELS ON WILDFIRE BEHAVIOUR FOR SWF-065 .................. 83 INFLUENCE OF INTERFACE FUELS IN THE POPLAR ESTATES ............................................ 88 WILDFIRE BEHAVIOUR CHARACTERISTICS IN POPLAR ESTATES ....................................... 90 Observed Wildfire Behaviour for SWF-082 ................................................................ 97 CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................. 98 APPENDIX A - DOCUMENTATION AND TECHNICAL SUPPORT TEAM ...................... 100 APPENDIX B - FOREST PROTECTION AREA .............................................................. 110 APPENDIX C - CANADIAN FOREST FIRE DANGER RATING SYSTEM (CFFDRS) ...... 111 APPENDIX D - 25-YEAR AVERAGE NUMBER OF WILDFIRES AND AREA BURNED . 116 APPENDIX E - PFFC WEATHER FORECASTING ........................................................ 117 APPENDIX F - FORECAST SURFACE WEATHER MAPS ............................................ 118 APPENDIX G - ENVIRONMENT CANADA FORECASTS (SLAVE LAKE) ...................... 130 APPENDIX H - MORNING AND AFTERNOON FORECASTS WITH ADVISORIES ........ 137 APPENDIX I - DIURNAL WEATHER ........................................................................... 145 APPENDIX J - PERCENTILE WILDFIRE WEATHER ANALYSIS .................................. 157 APPENDIX K - WIND ROSE DATA .............................................................................. 159 APPENDIX L - FIRE WEATHER INDEX (FWI) SYSTEM CALCULATIONS .................... 165 APPENDIX M - FOREST FUEL TYPES ......................................................................... 173 APPENDIX N - QUALIFIERS FOR FUEL TYPE MAPPING ............................................ 176 APPENDIX O - FUEL LOADING PLOT INFORMATION ................................................ 177 APPENDIX P - WILDFIRE BEHAVIOUR PREDICTION TOOLS .................................... 178 APPENDIX Q - FORECASTED AND ACTUAL HEAD FIRE INTENSITIES ...................... 180 APPENDIX R - WIND FORECAST SUMMARY ............................................................. 198 iv W I L D F I R E S C I E N C E D OCUMENTATION R E P O R T 2012 W I L D F I R E S C I E N C E D OCUMENTATION G ROUP WILDFIRE SCIENCE DOCUMENTATON Documentation Process In mid-May 2011, 52 wildfires ignited in the Lesser Slave Area over a two-day period. Three of these wildfires were managed as the Flat Top Complex, two of which resulted in unprecedented impacts on the Town of Slave Lake and surrounding communities. This event prompted Sustainable Resource Development to establish a Documentation and Technical Support Team to review and document wildfire science behaviour and operations. As well, the Minister of Sustainable Resource Development appointed a four-person independent committee called the Flat Top Complex Wildfire Review Committee. The reports prepared by the Documentation and Technical Support Team were submitted to the Flat Top Complex Wildfire Review Committee to assist them in providing recommendations to the Minister regarding improvements to the department’s wildfire management program. This document provides background and historical wildfire information, as well as specific wildfire behaviour and conditions relevant to the Flat Top Complex. The Documentation and Technical Support Team (Appendix A) focused on two aspects of the wildfires managed through the Flat Top Complex: 1. Wildfire science components related to the influence of fuels, weather, and topography on wildfire behaviour. 2. Operational chronology including wildfire preparedness planning, detection, initial attack, sustained attack, and resources. The documentation process included on-site interviews, review of all relevant operational logs and records, forest fuel consumption field work, development of a data library, on-site reconnaissance of burned area and wildfire impacts, and the reconstruction of fire weather and danger conditions and subsequent wildfire behaviour. National and Provincial Wildfire Overview Canada experienced catastrophic community wildfire events throughout the 1800s and early 1900s. This period was followed by a significant decrease in wildfire impacts until the first decade of the current century. Historical wildfires with significant community impacts in previous centuries have included: Miramichi wildfire in New Brunswick (1825) Saguenay wildfire in Quebec (1870) Fernie wildfire