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World Bank Document Report No. 4213-BO E L .PY [DoHv'a:~ssues and Optbns Df the EnergySector Public Disclosure Authorized April 1983 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Report of the joint UNDP/World Bank Energy Sector Assessment Program Public Disclosure Authorized This document has a restricted distribution. Etscontents may not be disclosed without authorization from the Government, the UNDP or the World Bank. FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. 4213-BO BOLIVIA ISSUES AND OPTIONS IN THE ENERGY SECTOR April 1983 This is one of a series of reports of the Joint UNDP/World Bank Energy Sector Assessment Program. Finance for this work has been provided, in part, by the UNDP Energy Account, and the work has been carried out by the World Bank. This report has a restricted distribution. Its contents may not be disclosed without authorization from the Government, the UNDP or the World Bank. ACRONYMSAND ABBREVIATIONS Acronymns M Thousand MM Millions B Billion bbl Barrel BD Barrel per day CF Cubic Feet TCF Trillion Cubic Feet MMBtu Million of British Thermal Units T Tonnes TCF Trillion Cubic Feet KW Kilowatt MW Megawatt GW Glgawatt LPG liquid Petroleum Gases Abbreviations ANICARVE National Association of Industrialists for Charcoal Production CDF Center for Forestry Development CORDECH Development Corporation of Chuquisaca ENDE Empresa Nacional de Electricidad (Power) GDC Gas Development Corporation INER Institute for Rural Electrification MEH Ministry of Energy and Hydrocarbons (Hydrocarbon Companies) NIS National Interconnected System PERTT Executive Program for Soil Rehabilitation in the Department of Tarija YPFB Yacimientos Petroliferos Fiscales Bolivianos CURRENCYEQUIVALENTS Currency Unit Bolivian Peso ($b) Official Rate $b 200/US$ FUEL EQUIVALENTS (Gross values: As used by Bolivian MEH) Product Unit Sp. Gr. Kcal/kg MMBtu/Unit Crude Oil bbl 0.745 11,507 5.409 Natural Gas MCF - - 1.045 LPG (Liquid Petroleum Gas) bbl 0.550 11,834 4.107 Motor Gasoline 0.700 11,612 5.129 Aviation Gasoline-800 " 0.700 10,401 4.594 Naptha 0.775 11,500 5.624 Kerosene 0.798 11,112 5.595 Jet Fuel A-1 0.807 11,762 5.989 Diesel Oil 0.800 11,112 5.609 Fuel Oil 0.850 11,112 5.960 Other Fuels 5.500 Ton of Oil Equivalent 10,000 39.683 Lubricants 0.88 Asphalt 1.05 Fuelwood kg 3,500 Charcoal kg 7,480 Bagasse kg 1,800 Electricity Generation Mwh 11,377 Consumption Mwh 3413 This report is based on the findings of an energy assessment mission which visited Bolivia in January, 1982. The members were Ms. Ursula Weimper (Mission Leader), Takashi Takayama (Economist), Andres Liebenthal (Economist -Conservation Specialist), Luis Luzuriaga (Power Engineer), William Beattie (Forester), Charles McPherson (Legal Specialist), Can Toktar (Reservoir Engineer), E. Mariani (Mechanical Engineer, Consultant), T. Ritter (Geologist, Consultant). Secretarial assistance for this report was provided by Mrs. Angelica A. Fernandes and Mrs. Josefina Regino-Suarez. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. I. SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS........................... 1 O v e .........rview ........... 1 Gas Export Project to Brazil .. .... 2 Domestic Market at............................. 3 Oil Deficit.. 4 Investmentin Increased Oil Supply.......... 5 Investmentin Gas Pipelines. 6 Demand Management . .. 6 Foreign Tradee.. 7 Electric Powr................... 8 Fuelwood and Other Renewable Energy Sources...... 8 Policy Implications ..... .. ............... 10 InHyrcabnt st................s ............... 10 Energy Pricing ...... 11 Hydrc rbonc.......... 11 ElectricTariffs. .r i f.f........ ... 11 Institutions......... ....... *.. 12 Technical Assistance........................ 13 II.* THE ECONOMY AND ENERGY......... ............... 14 Backron*g...............d. 14 Recent Economic Develop ments...............e**#. 15 Present Energy Demand Structure.................. 17 Trends in Energy Consumption by Energy Form...... 19 Energy Consumptionin the 1980s 8.0s............ 21 Projectionsof Energy Consumptionto year 2010... 23 III. ENERGY RESOURCES ............ .. ....... 25 Hydrocarbonso..c a r b o ns............. 25 Oil Fied i.....e.. l d.......... 27 CondensateFieldsi....s............ 27 Gas Feld s 328.................................. ExplorationCol 2.......a..****............38 HydroPoenia Potenti......... 29 Geothermal Eneg... e r gy0000000000#0 31 Coal .. o*o 31 Renewable Resourceso... o o o oo o 31 Forestry Reserves.er...... ...... ........... 31 Solar E n e r gyooooe*oo**ooooso 32 Solar Pondds. 33 Windpowergy.. *.................. .......... 34 AgriculturalWaste Products duct.s*9****... 34 Recommendations ...... O.. ..................... 36 - ii - Page No. IV. THE OIL DEFICIT .... ... .... ......................... 38 Oil Supply,- Demand B a le............. 38 Liquid Hydrocarbon Production Forecast 38 Projected Oil Balance.. 41 Qualitative BalJance . .......... 42 LPG Supply-Demind Balance.............. .......... 43 Short Term Options to Improve the Qualitative Balance ..... 11.. .................... 44 Demand Management ............................................... 44 Conservation and Substitution Potential.......... 44 Industry ........ 44 Transport ....................... 48 Energy Efficiency in Transport . ... 49 Households and Commerce....... 50 Gas Pipeline Network ..................... 51 Potential for Asphalt Substitution............... 55 Recommendations..... .... ... .... 55 V. ELECTRIC POWER ............ .. 58 Interconnected Power Sys t em......................58 Electric Power Demand Projection....ec.tion9 58 Expansion of Generating Capacity............ 59 Power Generation in Isolated Systems............. 62 Recommiendations........ ........... *... ........ 64 VI. REFORESTATION AND POTENTIAL FOR SMALL SCALE RENEWABLE ENERGYUSE. ............. .... .............. 65 Fuelwood ..........,, ...v...0... ...........Re*.. 65 Altiplanoo....... @ 65@ Z ..................... TariJa~~~~~~~0.........* @.b 66 iChuquisica0....... .................... 67 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~68 Wood and Charcoal Stoves........................ 69 Componientsof an Forest-BasedEnergy Development 69 VII. ENERGY PRICES.... ,...*o......@.*.o *..* ** so.... 71 Energy Investments .. .. .. ...... ... .. ... 71 No Gas Export Pipeline .................... .. 72 With Gas Export Pipeline*#***..... 74 Energy Prices....... 0 .0 74 AbsolutePrices* ......... *. 74 Oil Product Prices0 .... * .............0 75 Power Rates..oo...o...#..*.... # *a ............ 77 Long Run Marginal Power Costs9.**** ...* **** 77 Relative Prices........ 0 .. ....... ... 78 Hydrocarbons................ 78 IncrementalGas Production Costs..... 78 Exploration Costs................ @ *. 78 I)evelopmentCosts ........................*. 79 Operating osts.. 79 Transport Costs........ I .................... 79 - iii - PaeNo. Summary of Incremental Gas Costs ................. 79 Fuel Oil/Gas Price Ratio. .................. 80 Liquid Products Price Structure ... ...... 81 LPG Prices..... .... .. ..............4 81 Gasoline Prices ............. 81 Gasoline/Diesel Price Ratio ............ ... 81 LPG/Kerosene Price Ratt i......................... 82 Institutions ...............O*.....,,,,........... 84 Hydrocarbons ........... ............... ........ 84 Power Seco e........ t or.......... 87 Rural Electricity and Small Scale Renewables..... 88 Recommendationsd....... ........................ 88 Priigr.......c .....i n .... g 88 Institutions..... 0.. 0 .... 00 89 VIII. SURPLUS GAS UTILIZATION. ........-- --.. 90 Export Project to Brazil r a.z i........oo..oo....... 91 Reserves.o.. o--...o--.....o 92 Prices .92 International Gas Export Contracts................. 94 Base r-ic....e .... 94 Brazil's Energy Situation-oooo.ooooo...... ...... 97 Industrialization of Natural Goa s 100 Aimmonia-Urea-. .--- ............. .... .. 100 Market Considerations..o . ............. .. .- .... 101 Domestic Market for Nitrogenous Fertilizers. 101 International Marketsr* ........-...... .. 101 Production Costs... .... a.. * o*.... o .......... 103 Synthetic Fuels: Conversion of Gas to Liquids.*d...s.. 103 Mobil's Methanol-to-Gasoline Process....-...........oe 104 Methanol . .... - -........ 0..0...... 0 .0 ...0... 104 Domestic M a .........r k eta... 0- 0..... 104 Export Potential .............. ........ 105 Production Cost.o 108 SASOL - Synthol and Arge Liquification Processese..... 108 - iv - TABLES Page No. 1.1 1981 Bolivia's Energy Market Structure ................ 4 1.2 Change in Pattern of End-Use Commercial Energy Consumption .......................................... 5 2.1 Hydrocarbons and th(e Balance of Payment ................ 15 2.2 1981 Bolivia's Energy Market Structure ................. 17 2.3 Commercial Energy Consumption, 1981 .................... 18 2.4 Energy Intensity in the Bolivian Economy ........... 20.... 2.5 Domestic Pletroleum?roduct Sales 1971-81............... 21 2.6 Projected Commercial Energy Requirements ...........o... 23 2.7 Projectiornof Long 'Term Energy Consumption ............. 24 3.1 Remaining Proven Hydrocarbon Reserves .................. 26 3.2 Hydropower Projects.: ENDE's Expansion Program 1981-91 30 3.3 Sugar Industry - Energy Balance - 1980................. 35 4.1 Projection - Oil and Condensate Production ............. 39 4.2 Gas Production Forecast ....... 39 4.3 LPG Extraction Capacityand Use.... ....... , 40 4.4 Liquid Hydrocarbon Balance - 1981-1985 ................. 41 4.5 Liquid HydkrocarbonBalance - 1986-1990................. 42 4.6 Qualitative Imbalance 1981-1990 ..................... 43 4.7 Energy Consumption at Major Metallurgical Projects ..... 46
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