Vol. 51, No. 4, October 24, 2000 University of Michigan Law School
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University of Michigan Law School University of Michigan Law School Scholarship Repository Res Gestae Law School History and Publications 2000 Vol. 51, No. 4, October 24, 2000 University of Michigan Law School Follow this and additional works at: http://repository.law.umich.edu/res_gestae Part of the Legal Education Commons Recommended Citation University of Michigan Law School, "Vol. 51, No. 4, October 24, 2000" (2000). Res Gestae. Paper 158. http://repository.law.umich.edu/res_gestae/158 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Law School History and Publications at University of Michigan Law School Scholarship Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Res Gestae by an authorized administrator of University of Michigan Law School Scholarship Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. The Presidential Race In a race where poll numbers have STUDENT NEWSPAPER OF gone back and forth since the conven tions, George W. Bush, as of late, has THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN held a small but steady lead. The LAw ScHooL conventional wisdom in September was that AI Gore, leading in the polls as a result of his convention bounce, would carry the lead through late September, when Americans would be distracted by the Olympics. Then, he would wipe George W. Bush out in the October debates. As it turns out, 24 October 2000 Vol. 51 No.4 the ratings for the Olympics were low and Gore never delivered that debate knockout punch. Instead, Gore was criticized for exaggerating and sigh ing in the first debate, looking muz zled in the second debate, and being punchy and menacing in the third (why did he hover over Bush while i Bush was speaking?). Rather than coming out on top at the end of the debate cycle, Gore lags behind or ties Bush in all major national tracking polls as of this writing. Anything could change in these next two weeks, of course, but right now Bush seems to have the momentum. Of course, this race will ultimately be decided in the Electoral College, not the popular vote. So, how do things stand state by state? States in the Bush Column Many estimates give George W. Bush a lead in anywhere from 22 to 26 ~ee I:f Your To"te Ma"t"ter8f. Deeidi:ng; The Fir~~ P:re~ide:neA~~. ~IIIIII•'Gii'l.ll1! n page 2 o:f ~he 2I~~ Ue:n~ury . ··. rn... f1· By Jonathan Sanchez Court, but also on state judiciaries - ()C.!f::-L4-£'f!ffl ra such as the heated battle for three of Two weeks from today, this country the seven seats on the Micl1ll ' 5 will select its 43rd President under the siOF M 1787 Constitution (there were also ~~K:m::::~~d~;:: thi~:~~' ·.: .. J.ICLJ 6· nine quasi "presidents" under the school voucher plan and we have the Bjork on Tr ~lg '1cteen Articles of Confederation), the 107th makings of both an interesting and Congress, eleven state governors, and important election that could poten- Gore, Bush or Canm:an? 8 fifty different state legislatures that tially change the cultural landscape in will have a hand in shaping congres a significant way. The following is a sional districts for the next decade. thumbnail sketch of where things AJ!irmative Actiou 11 Not only will this election have an stand today with the presidential and effect on the makeup of the federal senate races and how things might judiciary, especially the Supreme turn out two weeks from now. No Nader, N0 Cry 13 ~''==2==~==~=~=~====~==e=g=®==e=st=a=e==·==2=4=~==c=to=b=e=r=2=0=0=o~l~l----------------- Voter Influence, Continued from page 1 to this, as the only Midwestern battle over Walter Mondale. Minnesota has ground state where Gore has main never voted Republican in a presiden states, mostly concentrated in the tained a solid lead after the conven tial election since Richard Nixon's Rocky Mountain, Great Plains region, tions, and Gore ends up with 168 landslide in 1972. Yet a recent and the South. The Mountain states more or less solid electoral votes. Minneapolis Star-Tribune poll shows of Alaska, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, The "Gore Swing States" Bush with a three-point lead in the Utah, Colorado, and probably "Gore Swing states" are states won state and Bush and Gore running Arizona are not seriously being con by Clinton/ Gore in 1992 and 1996 roughly even in Wisconsin and Iowa. tested by Gore. This gives Bush 34 that should be in the Gore column Perhaps these are just temporary electoral votes. The Great Plains now but are instead posting ties or anomalies and Gore will eventually states of North Dakota, South Dakota, narrow leads by either Bush or Gore. win. Even if this is the case, the short Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma are I've identified thirteen states, with a term effect is that Gore may have to solidly Republican and give Bush a combined total of 88 electoral votes, spend campaign resources in states total 'oC'25" eiectorar vofes: "'· In the wnirn faH into' this category. tlnat should already be in the bag. t' S~mth, the home regions of both can- In the West, Washington, Oregon, Maine, New Hampshire, Delaware, didates, Bush has the lead in Texas, Nevada, and New Mexico are com and West Virginia are small q :misiana, Mississippi, Alabama, petitive. In each of these states (except Northeastern states with a combined qeorgia, South Carolina, North for Nevada), the Green Party has tra 16 electoral votes that went for C::arolina, Virginia, and Kentucky giv ditionally been more influential than Clinton-Gore in 1992 ana 1996, but ing him 113 electoral votes. Bush also it is nationally and Ralph Nader where Bush and Gore seem to be run leads in solidly Republican Indiana as remains a threat to Gore. With an ning even tkris time around. With the well as Ohio, where Gore has report influx of people moving into the state exceptio;n of New Hampshire, these edly withdrawn resources to shift to and populating a burgeoning subur are states iilnat should not be consid- rr1ore competitive states. This gives biaarormd Las Vegas, Nevada has Bhsh another 33 electoral votes. All in" beeri"' trerrdt~g 'ihore Repuiblican. all, 205 electoral votes are seriously New Mexico 'also has closeilo a 40% trending towards Bush. t""'' Hispiuruc s n , ,tl:fat ,. ,tret:t,ds The thing to note with list is ~t Democrat, ' 'ght coURter the of these states, a -eandi.d:ate from Kentucky, Int1·•<ili uy •·t:v 1996 races "' in "'amount to 29 electoral vptes :' ·can't afford to lose and lfhat Jilill up in the Bush column November. Arkansas and Tennessee pn:edictaibly went to Clinton I Gore in the last two elections but are now considered toss ups this time. A Mason-Dixon poll appeared in the Nashville ·a.*.has tleaned towarqs showed Bush with a 3- Gore e the Dem~at convention, lead in Tennessee, within the but Bt is narrowing th,e gap 'in iilnis margin of error. ..The race is about rnu~t- L~ 8:~~!~:- Gore's SJ::~!Ii~P show a bit even ·.- in . Arkansas. 'Bu't 'si.Ttce both Philadelphia and Pittsburgh whereas in California and that Bush might be states, like most of the South, have a Bush's strength is in the suburban within striking distance. This state is strong and growing Republican pres areas and in the rural hinterlands. a must-win for Gore. If he loses ence, Gore might not have an easy Much of the outcome will depend on California, the election is over. That time holding on these states and their the strength of turnout in these rough said, California plus Hawai'i gives combined 15 electoral votes. ly equally divided bases. Gore 58 electoral votes. The In the Midwest, Minnesota, Iowa, Florida was considered Bush territo Northeastern states of Vermont, and Wisconsin (28 electoral votes) are ry until Gore and Lieberman started Massachusetts, Rhode Island, states in which Gore should be post to even the race after their convention. Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, ing solid leads. The last time Iowa It remains to be seen how well Maryland, and the District of and Wisconsin went for a Republican Democrats can energize the senior cit Columbia give Gore a total of 88 candidate was in 1984, when Ronald izens, African Americans, and non votes. Add lllinois' 22 electoral votes Reagan coasted to a landslide victory Cuban Hispanics to turn out to vote. ----------til 3Re.s ~e.stae • 24 ®ctoher 2000 3 II Polls show a slight Bush lead. rawly. If most of them decide to leave several recent polls. The race in Missouri is somewhat in him, then we have the makings of a flux after the death of Governor Mel Bush Electoral College landslide. Outlook: Republicans are currently Carnahan, the Democrat nominee for likely to lose two seats, possibly four. US Senate, in a plane crash. Both Senate Race Summary A five seat loss is possible if the Bush and Gore had been running Here is a brief rundown of how the Democrats are having a good night. evenly in the state as were the candi most competitive Senate races are dates for US Senate and Governor. trending: Democrat Seats Like the other states in this category, Of the five Democrat seats that are the big issue will be the strength of Republican Seats "competitive," Republicans currently turnout among the parties' respective Of the nine Republican seats that lead in two of the races and bases.