RUSSIAN GEOGRAPHICAL SOCIETY
FACULTY OF GEOGRAPHY, M.V. LOMONOSOV MOSCOW STATE UNIVERSITY
INSTITUTE OF GEOGRAPHY, RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
No. 02 [v. 06] 2013 GEOGRAPHY ENVIRONMENT SUSTAINABILITY
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2 2 GES 02|2013 Russia University, Faculty ofGeography Lomonosov State Moscow Kasimov Nikolay S. The Netherlands Sciences, ofAppliedEarth Department of University Delft Technology Kroonenberg Salomon, Faculty ofScience, Czech Republic University, Masaryk Konečný Milan of Geography,Institute Russia Russian Academy ofSciences, A. Kolosov Vladimir of Geography,Institute Japan ofEducation, University Hokkaido Himiyama Yukio Tunisia Association of Tunisian Geographers, Hayder Adnane Chinese Academy ofSciences, China Guo Hua Tong ofEcologyandEvolution, Russia Institute Russian Academy ofSciences, Gunin Petr D. ofGeography,Institute Russia Russian Academy ofSciences, Gritsay Olga V. Faculty ofGeography, Russia Lomonosov State University, Moscow D’yakonov KirillN. Faculty ofGeography, Russia Lomonosov State University, Moscow Dobrolubov Sergey A. Geography andGeoecology, Russia St-Petersburg State University, Faculty of Dmitriev Vasily V. ofPlymouth,University UK Brian Chalkley furGeographie,Institut Germany Ludwig Universitat Munchen, Maximilians Baume Otfried, Pacific ofGeography, Institute Russia Russian Academy ofSciences, PetrBaklanov Ya. ofdeserts, Institute Turkmenistan Turkmenistan Academy ofSciences, Babaev Agadzhan G. Faculty ofGeography, Russia Lomonosov State University, Moscow S. Tikunov Vladimir EDITORSINCHIEF: EDITORIAL BOARD
(Secretary-General) Russia ofGeographyInstitute Russian Academy ofSciences KotlyakovM. Vladimir Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland Zilitinkevich Sergey S. ofEnvironmentalInstitute Geosciences, Russia Russian Academy ofSciences, Viktorov Alexey S. Geographic Institute, Chile Military Vargas RodrigoBarriga et SciencesHumaines” France Université duHavre – UFR “Lettres Thorez Pierre of Geography,Institute Russia Russian Academy ofSciences, Tishkov A. Arkady of Geography,Institute Russia Russian Academy ofSciences, OlgaN. Solomina Ukraine of Sciences, of Geography Institute Academy National Ukrainian Rudenko Leonid G. and Regional Studies, Poland University Warsaw, Faculty ofGeography Andrzej Richling Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijić”, Serbia AcademySerbian ofSciencesandArts, Radovanovic Milan diGeografia, Italy Instituto Universita degliStudidiRoma “La Sapienza”, Palagiano Cosimo ofGeography,Institute Mexico National Autonomous ofMexico, University Palacio-Prieto Jose ofGeography,Institute Russia Russian Academy ofSciences, Nefedova TatyanaG. Faculty ofGeography, Russia Lomonosov State University, Moscow Mironenko Nikolay S. Faculty ofGeography, Azerbaijan State University,Baku Mamedov Ramiz Faculty ofGeography, Russia Lomonosov State University, Moscow Malkhazova Svetlana M. ofBehavioral Sciences,Institute USA ofColoradoUniversity atBoulder, O’Loughlin John Belgique Université Libre deBruxelles Vandermotten Christian 227.06.2013 14:24:02 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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3 Alexey S.Victorov, Veronika N.Kapralova Vitaly G.Linnik,ElenaM.Korobova, JustinE. Brown Nina N.Alekseeva A.Raheem,Usman Felix B. Olorunfemi Devon R.Dublin,Alexandra I.Bancheva, Amy Freitag Vitaly A.Ivanov, V. Andrii Bagaiev, Sergey G.Demyshev, Svitlana P. Lyubartseva Victor V. Sergey S.Ganzey Ermoshin, Olga A.Samonova, ElenaN.Aseyeva Arnold K. Tulokhonov, K. Arnold Yendon Zh.Garmaev, BairZh.Tsydypov GEOGRAPHY NEWS &REVIEWS SUSTAINABILITY ENVIRONMENT CONTENTS ENVIRONMENTALMANAGEMENT ...... PLAINSSTUDY OF THERMOKARSTCASE MODELS LANDSCAPE OF ...... 63 . . . RISK ASSESSMENT BASED ON MATHEMATICAL MORPHOLOGY ...... SURVEY . .RADIOMETRIC .AND . LANDSCAPE . ON .FLOODPLAIN BASED . . 49 . . . A HISTORICAL OUTLINE OF RADIONUCLIDE CONTAMINATION OF THE YENISEY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT ILORIN,IN NIGERIARAINSTORM STUDYOF VICTIMS CASE A ...... 80 . . . URBAN AND ADAPTATIONVULNERABILITY TO EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS: . .SAMANI .STUDYOF . CASE . A ...... LOCAL INITIATIVES FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN RURAL HOKKAIDO: . SEA BLACK THE IN NUMERICAL MODELING OF THE FIELDS OF POLYCHLORINATED BIPHENYLS IN THE 20IN THE LAND USE CHANGES IN THE TRANSBOUNDARY AMUR RIVER BASIN OF TWO FORESTED CATENASFORESTED UPLAND.SMOLENSKMOSCOW .OF .TWO ...... 28 . . . DISTRIBUTION OF METALS IN PARTICLE IN SIZE SOILS FRACTIONS BY CONTROL OF THE LAKE LEVEL REGIME LEVEL .LAKEOF . CONTROLTHE . BY ...... 2 . . . SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DYNAMICS OF THE BAIKAL COASTAL LINE CAUSED TH CENTURY...... , Takauyki , 2030 IN 2030 IN
Shiraiva RUSSIA: ...... 34 ...... 72 ...... 4 . . . . 94 . 227.06.2013 14:24:02 0 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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4 4 GEOGRAPHY 1 * [email protected]: Russian Academy ofSciences, str.,Vladivostok, 690041,Radio 7,Russia; and occupiesmore than2millionkm People’sand Democratic RepublicofKorea the Peoples RepublicofChina,Mongolia ofRussia, BasincoversRiver theterritories state. oftheneighboring policy The Amur the fieldofnature useandnature protection negative influencefrom rashdecisionsin anessential canexperience one country geosystem of oftrans-boundary The parts basins. river shown withintrans-boundary states areneighboring well reflected and oftheand nature protection policy 3 2 Victor V.Ermoshin the Amur River Basin the AmurRiver changes, topographic maps, remote sensing, years hasbeendone. for ofthecountries peculiarities thelast70 The comparative analysisoflanduse areRussia, ChinaandMongolia analyzed. ofthebasinin use withinnationalparts The basicfeatures inthechangeofland meadows, wetlands andmountaintundra. for forestdynamics ismarked lands, century. Resultsshowed that,negative 21stin the1930–1940sandearly basinmaps oflanduseintheAmurRiver of the19thcentury. We compiledtwo sincethemiddle hasstarted basin territory The mostintensive development ofthe e-mail: [email protected] e-mail: The Research Pan-Okhotsk Center, Sapporo, 060-0819,N19W8,Japan; Vladivostok, Russia ABSTRACT: KEY WORDS: BASIN IN THE 20 RIVER IN THEAMUR TRANS-BOUNDARY LAND USE CHANGES Deputy director, Deputy Pacific ofGeography, Institute Far Eastern Branch, Associate Professor, University, ofLow Hokkaido Institute Temperature Science, Pacific ofGeography, Institute Far Eastern Branch,RussianAcademy ofSciences, Corresponding author All distinctions intheeconomic All distinctions
land useandcover 1* , Sergey S.Ganzey TH CENTURY 2 . 2 sea basinsare integral geosystems of the Complete watersheds oflarge rivers, lakes, development. outof joint programsto of working approaches to nature management demands for thedevelopment ofshared territories, andsimultaneously boundary that strengthens coherence withintrans- uniform naturalandgeographical basis hasacommon often territory boundary frontier territories. co-operating This trans- isformed from closelyandsteadily territory infrastructure. As aresult, atrans-boundary and power grids, andsomelinksofmarket transitions, communicationlines transport areas are formed anddeveloped, specifically, linksoffrontier territories. Infrastructural ofadjacentfrontier interaction an active ismutual, countries thereneighboring begins with including economicandhumanitarian, develop meansofcooperation, various a pioneerrole. casetheaspirationto In this process, frontier canplay territories countries, especiallywithitsneighbors. In cooperationwithother to develop certain sovereignty bymeansofitsfrontiers, butalso itsown define and support to strictly Any country, asarule, aspires notonly INTRODUCTION , TakauykiShiraiva 3 227.06.2013 14:24:02 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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5 exceeds 2millionkm total geographical area structure.type Its trans-regional basin- of atrans-boundary Basinisagood example The AmurRiver Change) studies. tasksofLUCCimportant (LandUse/Cover isoneofthemoreworld interesting and region ofthe use/cover changesinacertain land the long-term the sametime, observing are countries necessary.of neighboring At which are formed onthefrontier territories assessments ofnature managementpatterns asarule. territory Therefore, comparative frontiermanagement ofaneighboring on thenaturecan causeanegative impact nature management,onefrontier territory Second, underconditionsofinefficient be realized indifferent patterns. territorial first, sustainablenature management can andourstudiesshowthat,at territories of development oftrans-boundary as awhole. experience The international also bemanifested withinbasingeosystems natural phenomena,suchasfloods, can manifested inanothercountry. Catastrophic resources, canbe withinonecountry such aswater, forest, ground andmineral activities, andtheuseofnaturalresources, pollution from wastes ofeconomic various ontheenvironmentnegative impacts of arecountries appreciably shown. The policiesoftheneighboring conservation intheeconomicandnature all distinctions components ofuniform river watersheds, geosystems whicharetrans-boundary uniform geosystem atthetop level. Within it would beconsidered and assessedasa simultaneously enters ormore two countries, theintegral If geosystem highest rank. East intheendof19 oftheRussianFar part in thesouthern were significantly different. Investigations basin’s ofthesethree territories countries Previousand 8%to Mongolia. studiesonthe belongsto Russia,42%to China, territory and theyconsidered acomplexofthe of Anuchin[1896]wereworks the first, and geomorphology, among others. The natural conditions–vegetation, soils, were onthestudy of mostlyoriented 2 . About50%ofits th –20 th century century situation withinthewatershed wasmade the lastfew years isthattheanalysisof 2006]. The common feature in oftheworks China [Tattsenko, Russia andNortheastern theRussianFar between interaction Eastof Sheingauz, 2004],andtrends ofeconomic and land resource assessment[Karakin andGanzei, 2008], development [Baklanov etal., 2001],issuesonitseconomic [Kachur Lake watershed River andtheKhanka Ussuri oflandsinthe use andrationaldistribution devoted to theprogram ofsustainableland is evidencedbythepublicationofpapers watershed oftheAmurRiver trans-boundary interestof others. Modern instudiesonthe watershed [Sochava, 1969],andanumber [1962], avegetation mapoftheAmurRiver andRubtsova byLiverovskii the AmurRiver about thesoilandgeographical zoning of formation. included studiesThese works butalsoasanintegralcountries geographical was considered notonlywithinseparate environment watershed oftheAmurRiver of thematic works,series inwhichthenatural becamethebasisfor fulfillinga surveys and Chichagov, 1957]. The results ofthese inthe1956–1962[Nikolskaya out assurveys Republic ofChina. These studieswere carried the HeilongjiangExpeditionofPeople’s of theUSSRAcademy ofScienceandby ForcesCouncil onIndustrial Organization Chinese JointAmurExpeditionunderthe watershed hasbeenmadebytheRussian- in naturalenvironments inthe Amur River aboutdifferentiationof extensivematerial to theaccumulation An essentialcontribution [Anuchin, 1948;Glushakov, 1948]. were ofManchuria published characteristics devoted to theeconomicandgeographical ofthe20thcentury, works the secondpart development oftradeandindustry. During resettlement ofpeasants, and further krai, economic development inAmuro-Ussuriiski for 1912]to studyopportunities Korotkii, 1911; [Kryukov, beginning ofthelastcentury Expedition, aresearch bodyorganized atthe in nature hasbeen produced bytheAmur thatareworks bothscientificandapplied Agreatof Manchuria. volume ofresearch natural features, population,andeconomy 227.06.2013 14:24:02 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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6 6 GEOGRAPHY analysis ofthetopographical sheetsof The mapwascompiled through an andall,on theirbases[Ganzei 2009]. the 1930–1940s Basinduring the AmurRiver possible to compiletheLandCover of Map main source oflandusedata,andthatitwas were thesameperiod published during the Amur Basinshowed thattopographical maps ofthe Chinese, parts Russian, andMongolian use statements inthe1930–1940s containing information onlandcover/land ofdifferentAn inventory materials Land cover/land use mapfor1930–1940s 2007, 2009,2010]. LUCC etal, basin[Ganzey intheAmurriver Previously we have alsoprovided dataon etal.,70-year 1995;2002]. [Himiyama period and theassessmentoflandchangesfor a and landcover from structures the1930s which allowed thestudyofspatiallanduse Chinawascompiledin1995, Northeastern Under hisleadership, of The LandUseMap byProfessorwas asetofworks Himiyama. changes are rare. Oneoftheexceptions Generally, estimatinglong-term works areas anddurationofanalyzed periods. are widelydiversified regarding thestudied data from publicationsinthe20thcentury methodology. Atthesametime, available studied better onthebasisofLUCC Chinahasconsiderablybeen Northeast and incomplete. rare are Mongolia changes inEastern very heterogeneous.is very Dataonlanduse region are few innumber, andtheircontent As aresult, devoted theworks to LUCC inthe data withoutthemappingofwideterritories. throughwas mostlycharacterized statistical andprocessing.of datacollection, Landuse diverse, anddissimilarindetails, methods watershed incomplete,Amur River isoften ofthe information abouttheseparate parts The useofsuchdataiscomplicated because divisionssituated ontheirterritories. territorial as arulebylarge unitsofadministrative and MATERIALS AND METHODS 30 mandmore were usedinthework. The compilations oftheaverage resolution from Watershed” andall, [Ganzei 2007].Composite Land-UseintheAmurRiver “Modern basic information for drawing themap (USA) in2000–2001provided theinitial A setofsatellite imagesfrom Landsat-7 Land cover/land use mapfor2000s whole watershed). forests) hadapresumptive (for character the (coniferous,types mixed, anddeciduous landsandpaddyfields. arable (dry) The forest allowed between usto definetheboundaries and 1:200,000maps. Additionally, thesemaps of landcover andlanduseasinthe1:300,000 the scaleof1:100,000showed thesametypes ground, lands, andsettlements. in Maps dry forests,area, burned-out salt-marshes, sand bushes, bushesandgrasslands, forest cutting divided), grasslands, sparseforests and (coniferous, mixed, anddeciduous –partly suchasforest additional characteristics types and landuseintheterritory. We couldidentify detailed information aboutthelandcover 1:300,000 and1:200,000containedmore 1930s–1940s. The mapsinthescalesof 1:1,000,000 compiledintheUSSR in thescaleof1:100,000,1:200,000,and through ananalysisoftopographical maps ofthewatershed wascharacterized part border forest areas ofChina. The Mongolian 1:1,000,000) were alsousedto draw thenear- 1930s–1940s, themaps(scale1:100,000– 1952. Published intheformer USSRinthe 1949and between territory the Manchurian maps inthescaleof1:250,000madefor Air Forces oftheUSAusingtopographical bytheGeneralStaffofMilitary/ checked was Staff oftheKwantungArmy ofJapan.It in1930bytheGeneral territory Manchurian (scale 1:100,000),andwere compiledfor through ananalysisoftopographical sheets ofthewatershed were compiled Chinese part than 1500. The mapsoflanduseinthe all, thetopographicalIn sheetstotaled more 1:250,000; 1:300,000;1:420,000,1:1,000,000). scales(1:100,000;1:200,000; and invarious in the1930s–1940sdifferent countries watershedthe AmurRiver mainly printed 227.06.2013 14:24:02 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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7 describes meadows, describes bushes, and by-golets The category “meadows andbushes” includes forest plantations. andindustrial loggings, andsoon. The “other forests” type considered; theycanbeformed fires, after above, oflandsisnot thegenesisofthistype than 30%.Again, asalready mentioned standsless woods withbushesofdensity compositions,of various with alternating “sparse forests” includesrare forests type leaved forests andtheir otherspecies. The forest” includesbroad-leaved type andsmall- at approximately equalratios. The “deciduous versions from coniferous to deciduousforests “mixed forest” includesalltransitive type larch forests, andtheirotherspecies. The includesfir,type abies, Koreanpine, pine, differentvery ways. The “coniferous forest” not considered; theycanbeformed through oflandis these, thegenesisofeachtype In oflanduseandnaturalstates oflands. kinds high, eachtype’s conceptincludesvarious enough, andthelevel ofgeneralizationis lands. Sincethemappingscaleissmall forests definedinforest have beenfurther deciduous forests, sparseforests, andother been introduced. Coniferous, mixed, and havestands, characteristics theirtypological ofwood additionto corrected. thedensity In The classificationofforest landshasbeen differedRussia, andMongolia significantly. classifications accepted andusedinChina, sincethe classification oflandusetypes to create a uniform was necessary It topographical mapsinthescaleof1:500,000. Atlas of Vegetation [2001],Raster ofPRC a mapofthevegetation ofChinafrom the NationalRepublic[1990], of theMongolian by Sochava [1969],amapofthevegetation watershed inthescaleof1:2,500,000edited a mapofthevegetation oftheAmurRiver electronic raster andthento vector format: information to wasconverted The next subsequent conversion to Arc/I Analysisto form shapefilesandtheir Image ArcGIS usingaspecialextension software wasmadeviaGISAr Decoding some ofthemostdisputed territories. resolution of15–30mwere usedto specify satellite imagesfrom Landsat TM witha nfo coverings. cView 3,3 cView and Amur River for compilingthelandcover mapofthe maps allowsusto use18landtypes The thematiccontent ofthetopographical of 1930-1940 and 2000-2001 Land cover/land use status inthe periods “other lands.” slag-heaps,(quarries, etc.) enter thecategory andunusedlands settlements), andindustrial of former forests, residential areas (large marshes. Fire-sites andloggings atlocations and water-logged flooded meadowsand “wetland” includesswamps, type highbogs, waterembraces lakes, swamps. reservoirs, The sites, andpastures. The bodies”“water category includes arablelands, fallowlands, haymaking paddy fields, andthetype “unr lands. The “reclaimed lands” includes type reclaimed andunreclaimed agricultural The “agricultural lands” describes category mountainous bushes, tundras, andgoletses. forms ofhigh- mountainous pine, dwarf high-mountainous tundras” includes type steppes, andsoon. The “golets busheswith any grassy vegetation: usuallymeadows, at any given stageinthestudy, itincludes The “meadows” israthervaried, and type lands withaprevalence ofbushvegetation. bush lands, partly, bushandsparseforested “bushes” includesbushes, meadows, type and bushes withhigh-mountainoustundras. The Over 30%of this areaOver isoccupiedbymixed 2). (Table (54,3 %)ofthewatershed territory At present, forest areas occupyover half contours ofdifferent polygons (Fig. 2). basin ismore detailedinthematiccontent and landuseintheAmurRiver The mapofmodern 55% ofgrassland were inChina. landsand the1930–1940s, and91,1%ofdry landswereof urban situated inRussia land, 57,7%ofwetlands, andabout72% land. 63%oftheBasin’s Over of dry forest by grassland, 13,2%bywetlands, and16% the basinwere occupiedbyforests, 17,6% TableA 1). RESULTS ccording tothesedata,53,1%of basin from 1930-1940 eclaimed lands”
(Fig. 1, 227.06.2013 14:24:02 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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8 8 GEOGRAPHY
227.06.2013 14:24:02 Fig. 1. Land-use in the Amur River basin in 1930–1940s. 7 . 0 6 .
2 Forest lands: 1 – coniferous forest, 2 – mixed forest, 3 – deciduous forest, 4 – sparse growth; Scrub and Grassland: 5 – scrub and sparse growth, 6 – scrub and grassland, 7 – scrub, 8 – grassland; 0 1
3 9 – mountain tundra; Agricultural lands: 10 – dry lands, 11 – paddy field; Waters: 12 – wetland, 13 – lakes; Other lands: 14 – salt-marsh, 15 – sands, 16 – burned out forest, 17 – forest cutting area, 18 – urban land
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9 ad ls55–55– 288 3796 545 265 2014 – 273 175 – – – – 639 954 87 3192 – – – 545 117221 20980 2302 2858 5024 111166 221 17689 2144 124605 195201 21 245 155892 5589 17 864 308 Paddy fields 12177 2144 46022 Sand ground 270251 Salt-marsh 9086 tundra Mountain 136782 358445 forests Burned-out Forest cuttingarea lands Urban andreservoirs Lakes Wetlands farmands Dry Grassland oetctigae 6562 1933 36 33517 45 1675 5777 388 – – 452 44576 4614 – 82303 – 131 6721 186 44 – 23612 815 121597 611 263 330 12 783 991 8655 3165 89118 222 95308 – 2040 5189 300 2311 657 13 304 135076 34495 2666 1811 139929 110081 Forest cuttingarea 2493 10 2370 619 Bushes 81 053 24469 491 194635 Waste ground 4583 55163 tundra Mountain – 6161 Unused lands 25 982 346 695 248664 lands Urban 3080 26 365 106318 Wetlands 8411 231010 Reservoirs 4976 Lakes 118255 145396 27 156 lands farming Dry 347253 214035 Paddy fields Grasslands 315971 forestOther lands 277610 forests Burned-out forests Sparse forests Mixed forests Deciduous forests Coniferous uhs4 3 7981611957 106 3018 12 297 81 12099 27968 7931 2997 20 502 163354 179367 40032 14 794 30815 31 586 17064 495434 28 25 745 155635 64 386 686902 180500 Bushes andgrasslands Bushes 189448 Sparse forests andbushes Sparse forests forests Deciduous forests Mixed forests Coniferous aduetp Total (km type use Land aduetp Total (km Land usetype Table 1. Land Cover and Land Use in the Amur River Basin in 1930–1940 in Basin River Amur the in Use Land and Table Cover 1. Land Table 2.LandCover andLandUse intheAmurRiver Basinin2000–2001
3 882 1 665 22311 5858 835 2 2 Russia(km ) ) Russia (km Russia ) 2 2 ) Mongolia (km Mongolia ) China (km ) 2 Mongolia (km ) 2 China (km ) 2 ) 2 ) 227.06.2013 14:24:03 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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1 10 GEOGRAPHY 0
227.06.2013 14:24:03 Fig. 2. Modern land-use in the Amur River basin (according to the materials of decoding satellite images). 7 . 0 6 . 2 Forest lands: 1 – coniferous forest, 2 – mixed forest, 3 – deciduous forest, 4 – sparse growth, 5 – other forest land; Scrub and Grassland lands: 6 – scrub, 7 – grassland; 8 – mountain tundra; Agricultural 0 1 3
lands: 9 – dry lands, 10 – paddy fields; Waters: 11 – wetlands, 12 – lakes and reservoirs; Other lands: 13 – burned out forest, 14 – forest cutting area, 15 – urban land, 16 – unused lands and waste ground
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1 32,4 thousandkm from 1950to 2000wasreduced by52,5%,from wetlands ontheSanjiangPlain for theperiod Chinese researchers [Liuetal., 2004],ashare of agricultural development. According to is oneoftheconsequencesitsactive watershed. Prompt reductionofwetlands ofthe land islocated intheChinesepart share ofcultivated landsincludingirrigated the area ofthewatershed. The dominant are oflandsin thesecondtype its territory Agricultural 20%of landsoccupyingnearly occupy about15%ofallforest lands. inthe1990s. forests Deciduous territory forest management,developed onour territory, whichreflectsadverse trends in sparse forests are alsolocated intheRussian offire-sites, loggings,that themajority and to note isnecessary the Russianterritory. It and coniferous woods situated mainlyin Province, 59,7thousandkm measuring forestsMixed prevail inHeilongjiang km Region, measured at25,3thousand Autonomous Mongolia in Inner Ridge Khingan occupy thelargest area withintheGreat theChineseterritory, coniferousIn forests of theeconomy involved. ofthecountries trends andmodern historical indevelopment features ofnature management,andthe conditions oftheterritory, aswell asthenational land usereflectsboththenaturalandclimatic ofmodern ofthetypes distribution territorial of thearea watershed. oftheAmurRiver The upabout20% andbushesalsomake Meadows wetlands are located stillonRussianterritory. increased from ofthe 10,2%to 55,1%.Most the sametime, theshare ofagricultural lands with a practically continuous distribution of continuousdistribution with apractically is shownintheAtlasof Vegetation asazone Ridge oftheGreat Khingan portion northern and thedecodeddata.For example, the of theAtlas Vegetation (2001) ofthePRC considerable divergence thedata between thatthere existed a wasobserved territory. It state offorestsof themodern inChinese images allowed usto reveal otherfeatures satellitein theChineseterritory. Decoded or about54,2%ofthearea oftheforests 1 2 to 9,2thousandkm 2 . At . At 2 2 .
national features oflandusetheterritories scale, to assessthecharacter, structure, and from unifiedpositionsand onauniform maps haveanalyses ofthistwo allowed us Unused land.and onelandusetype, The ground are presented byacommonlegend marsh, sandlands, unusedland, and waste were Bush. Salt- combinedinto thetype Scrub andgrassland subtype sparseforests.combined into thetype The forests andScrub Sparseforests were were grouped Forest. inlandusetype Sparse offorestof landusetypes.Allsubtypes land Table 3provides theschemeofgeneralization the commonlegend. compare thedifferent legendsandto create to land useinthebasin,itwasnecessary oflandcover/ types ofvarious distribution For theestimation ofthedynamicsspatial in the basin oflandcover/landLong-term dynamics use agricultural landsare alsolocated inthisarea. About86,5%ofits concentrated inthisaimak. ofthewatershed is portion Mongolian Approximately halfofthemeadows reaching 21%and43,5%,respectively. forests andbushesare widelydistributed, less, about5,6%and2,3%,respectively. Sparse share ofconiferous andmixed forests ismuch ofthewatershed. portion Mongolian The a share ofupto 24,7%oftheforests inthe forests dominate theforested lands, with Deciduous AimakofMongolia. of Dornod oflanduseischaracteristic Wide spectrum have notbeendisplayed onthefinalmap. full because objects inareas lessthan50km full becauseobjects data may notreflectthepresent situationin into to accountthatused take is necessary also appeared to beunexpected. Besides, it ofthewatershed,area intheChinesepart Jilin Province, about36,3%ofthelogging AhighshareRidge. oftimbercuttingsin oftheGreat Khingan portions southern mixed forests areinthecentraland typical dominate thearea, andthatconiferous and data showthatatpresent, deciduousforests coniferous forests. However, thedecoded 227.06.2013 14:24:03 2 7 .
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1 12 GEOGRAPHY 2 and simplificationofthestructureforests shows anessentialdecrease inthearea compiledmaps ofthetwo A comparison watershedthe AmurRiver China,andRussiaincludedin of Mongolia, onantnr 1141 7 76 . . –0.4 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 1.3 1.2 0.4 –6.4 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.9 2.6 1.3 0.1 6.9 –7967 –5.0 2358 0.4 10.3 9943 2.4 6.0 5967 0.0 13.2 13177 12.2 2666 27365 4026 17.0 8655 –130322 21 144 25437 7.1 3.4 17 423 17.2 309 13 112 139929 6.7 25982 2689 tundra Mountain 52894 4.8 270251 –102606 forest Burned-out 9087 209 913 546 121598 Forest cuttingarea 248664 48090 land Urban 346 696 68703 &reservoir Lake 351270 145397 136 Wetland 783 fiPaddy eld 97306 lands farming Dry Grassland Bush forest Sparse oetln 0 069582–111 945812 1057016 land Forest Land usetype Table 3. Integrated Legend for the Comparison of Land Cover/Land Use in the Amur River Basin River Amur the in Use Cover/Land Land of Comparison the for Legend Table Integrated 3. atmrh nsdln Unusedland tundra Mountain land Urban &Reservoir Lake outforest Burned Unusedland Forest cuttingarea Paddy field tundra Mountain &Reservoir Lake outforest Burned lands farm Dry land Urban Forest cuttingarea Sands Waste Salt-marsh tundra Mountain Paddy field outforestBurned Sparsegrowth Forest cuttingarea lands farm Dry land Urban Lake forest Other land Forest Wetland Wetland Wetland ground Paddy field Sparsegrowth lands farming Dry Grassland Scrub &Grassland forest Mixed forest Deciduous Scrub Bush Conifer forest Scrub &sparsegrowth Sparse growth forestDeciduous forestMixed Conifer forest 1930-1940 2000-2001 Joint legend 1930–1940 Table 4. Land Cover and Land Use Changes in the Basin the in Changes Use Land and Cover Table Land 4. (km . 2 ) 2000–2001 (km 2 ) Change (km portion of Sikhote-Alin Ridge, and Chitinskaya andChitinskaya Ridge, ofSikhote-Alin portion northern Russian andChineseportions), Less Ridge, (bothinthe Khingan oftheGreat parts andeastern northern 4). (Table theThis especiallyconcerns towards aprevalence ofinvaluable woods
0 184. –5.5 46.4 51.8 204 2 ) 1930–1940 (%) 2000–2001 (%) Change (%) 227.06.2013 14:24:03 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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1 3 1 – coniferous and mixed forests; 2 – de 2 – forests; coniferous andmixed 1 – 7 – wetlands, 8 – lakes and reservoirs; 9 – forest cutting ar cutting forest 9 – lakes andreservoirs; 8 – wetlands, 7 – Fig. 3. The Xioxing Anling and Zeya-Burea plain. Forest and Scrub lands: lands: Scrub and Forest plain. Zeya-Burea and Anling Xioxing The 3. Fig. A – in 1930–1940s, B – at the beginning of the XXI century. XXI the of beginning the at 1930–1940s, B – in A – ciduous forests; 3 – sparse growth; 4 - bushes; 5 – grassland; 6 – dry land; grassland; 4-bushes; growth; dry 5 – sparse 6 – forests;ciduous 3 – ea; 10 – slash fire; 11 – urban land; 12 – unused lands 227.06.2013 14:24:03 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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1 14 GEOGRAPHY 4 111.2 thousandkm total,Russian territory. In forests have lostabout the forests in2000–2001are burned onthe watershedin theAmurRiver and97%of Oblast. About78%ofthecutdownforests area ofabout130,3thousandkm area ofwetlands andforests. Wetlands lostan changes are associated withareductioninthe the SanjiangPlain (Fig. many cases, 4).In these Xioxing AnlingandZeya-Bureya plain(Fig. 3)and been observed. the These changesconcern China from the1930sandin2000–2001has lands thatoccurred inthePeople Republicof A significant expansionofthearea ofagricultural distribution within the Amur River basin. withintheAmurRiver distribution tendencies inthespatialdynamicsofland with ahighlevel ofconfidence onlythegeneral ouropinion,onecandetermine obtained. In withthereliabilityofcomparisons concerned forest. questionsinthisstudyis Oneofthekey mostcases, thebordersIn are ofthetype are definedwithahighdegree ofreliability. lands, andlarge andwater settlements objects mountain tundra,steppes, saltmarshes, sand forests, shrubsandsparseforests, shrubs, areas,burnt-out felling areas, meadows, sparse the borders offorested territories, wetlands, ofthewatershed, parts Russian andMongolian offorests.and inthecharacteristics For the valleys, intheborder positionofforest territory, in hydronetwork drawing, inthewidthofriver mountain forest containalotoferrors: territories high degree ofreliability. Topographical mapsof andarefor compiledwitha theiraccuracy were economicallydeveloped are distinguished USSR. The Japanesemapsfor that flatterritories maps inthescaleof1:100 000 publishedinthe of landusewere notshownonthe practically for thedeveloped agricultural areas, thesetypes the Japanesemapsare more detailedespecially the USSRare essentiallydifferent. The legendsof topographic mapspublishedinJapanand to noticethatthelegendsof isnecessary It Data accuracy ofthewatershed. the Russianpart ofwetlands are stillconcentrated on parts Most DISCUSSION 2 oftheirarea since1930. 2 in the basin. in thebasin. PRC has remainedPRC inthe20 Jilin Provinces [Heetal., 2008]. North-eastern it increased by5–10%inHeilongjiangand decreased Mongolia by5%,while of Inner area offorest landintheAutonomous Area [Glushakov, 1948].From 1949to 1998,the decreased bymore than10,1millionhectares basin River andtheSungari Little Khingan From 1931to 1945,theforest area within andJiamusi. the railway Harbin between andsubsequent operationof construction relatedal., to the 2008],whichwaspartly [Zhang, ridge 2000;Heet and LittleKhingan around themountainmassifofChangbaishan felling inthe1930–1940s wasconcentrated ofthebasin,basic theChineseportion In and theirfelling basin. withinthe AmurRiver estimates ofthespatialdynamicsforests inourcartographic wasalsoconfirmed fact intense felling haddisappeared by2000. This A.S. Sheingauznotes thattheAmurzone of remained quite highwithinLittleKhingan. Felling hadalso ofSikhote-Alin. part northern zone ofintense felling to hadshifted the 2000,a By Krai. inPrimorskii Sikhote-Alin and foothills ofthecentralandsouthern (Fig. 3),andonthewestern macroslope the Amur-Zeya Oblast Plateau inAmurskaya felling wasnoted intheZeya-Burea plainand the firstoftheseperiods, themostintense of1930s–1940sand 1980s.periods During peaks offelling whichcoincidedwiththe of felling. From 1900to 2000,herevealed two temporal dynamics ofvolumes andheaviness forests, notingmeanwhile thecomplexspatial- intheeconomicaluse ofFar-Easternperiods Sheingauz A.S.[2006]identifiedseveral lands Forest where theforest areas have increased owing a stablenegative trend, there are regions Although thisprocess by wascharacterized Oblasts. and Chitinskaya the Amurskaya andin (RussianandChineseparts), ridge withinLittle Khingan Ridge, Sikhote-Alin mountains, inwesternKhingan andnorthern the western spursoftheGreat andeastern has, to thelargest decreased extent, on timber [Yamane, 2007]. The area offorests one ofthemainsuppliersandconsumers th century to be century 227.06.2013 14:24:03 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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1 5 1 – forests; 2 – sparse growth; 3 – bushes; 4 – grassland; 5 – dry land; 6 – paddy field; 7 – wetlands; 7 – field; paddy land; 6 – grassland; bushes; dry 4 – 3 – growth; 5 – sparse forests; 2 – 1 – Fig. 4. The Sanjiang plain. Agricultural lands and wetlands: wetlands: and lands Agricultural plain. Sanjiang The 4. Fig. A – in 1930–1940s, B – at the beginning of the XXI century. XXI the of beginning the at 1930–1940s, B – in A – 8 – lakes and reservoirs; 9 – urban land urban 9 – lakes andreservoirs; 8 – 227.06.2013 14:24:03 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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1 16 GEOGRAPHY 6 increased by45%(Fig. 4).Overall, thestable decreased by52,5%,whilethatofarableland 1950 to 2000,thearea ofwater-marsh lands Sangjiang plainwere more significant. From and 8.5%,respectively. The changesonthe lowland were reduced bymore than25% water-marsh landsintheNongjang-Sungari From 1980to 2000,areas ofmeadowsand plain [Liuetal., 2004; Wang etal., 2006]. as intense development intheSangjiang land use. This process wascharacterized marshes andmeadowlandsto agricultural was related to the conversion ofwater- On frequent occasions, thisdevelopment meanwhile, were newterritories developed. ofthebasin, theChinesepart 2008]. In andGanzei, [Baklanov period the pre-crisis a decrease incrop areas ascompared to ofthebasin,there was theRussianpart In were to subjected themostdevelopment. lowlands andMiddle-Amur and Khanka AsiaThe Zeya-Bureya andKazakhstan. plain locationsinCentralof Koreansto various withtheresettlement 13,3% inconnection theydecreased by Krai Primorskii In territory). (Russian Krai and by66,7%inKhabarovskii Oblast increased by57,3%inAmurskaya crop areasof1930–1940 theperiod between According to thedataof A.R.[1989], Tibekin plain. Khanka for oftheNorth agriculture portions mostsuitable lowland andthesouthern, development oftheNongjiang-Sungari to alarge related extent, to thecontinuing expansion ofthearea undercultivationwas, 1982]. the average by2%[Nakagane, The increasedThe landssownwithrice on of Russiangeographers [Glushakov, 1948]. 17,7%. This figure agrees withtheestimates 1932–1942by increased theperiod between provinces ofChina in three north-eastern [1982],thearea occupiedbycrops Nakagane for production.According farm to dataofK. The cleared forest areas were used often Agricultural lands ridge. oftheGreat Khingan part the southern to reforestation active police, especiallyin 12-II-CY-09-016. (AMORE), Project 4008 ISTC, 12-II-CY-09-015, Project Finance byAmur-Okhotsk support land usewhichshouldbecreated for allbasin. development oftheprogram ofsustainable goalsfor functioning, isoneofthe primary organization and theirstructural breaking riverbasins, and also thefactors boundary use andanecological conditioninthetrans- ofland problems influencingonefficiency Therefore studying ofallcomplexthe watershed.River spaceofthewholeAmur geo-information layerelectronic itisacomponentofforming watershed,Amur River and, insecond, asan analysisof system ofland-usein further outofthe an information basisfor carrying mapsare,The compiledelectronic infirst, subregional cross-border geosystems. main trends intheuseoflandmajor madeit possibletomaterials identifythe of native andforeign authors, statistical over thepast70–80years, numerous studies land useinthebasinofAmurRiver of analysisofthedistribution Cartographic outs, andcoupes). landscapes (agricultural landscapes, burnt- increase inanthropogenically transformed water-marsh lands, andmeadows)a swift reduction inareas ofnaturallands(forests, bya changeischaracterized distribution geosystem. inland The generaltendency within agreat subregional trans-boundary oflanduse tendencies ofspatialvariations and quantitatively thebasic characterize and statisticaldataallowed usto confirm investigations ofRussianandforeign authors, basin over thelast70–80years, numerous withinthe AmurRiver land distribution of analysisofthepatterns Cartographic ofthebasin. inallparts lands wasobserved ofincreasing areastendency for agricultural ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS CONCLUSIONS 227.06.2013 14:24:04 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
1 4 : 2 4 : 0 4 ggi213.indd 17 i 2 1 3 . i n d d
1 6. Ganzei S., Ermoshin GanzeiS.,Ermoshin V., N.,(2009).ThedynamicsoflandusewithintheAmurbasin Mishina 6. GanzeiS.,Ermoshin V., N.,Shiraiva Mishina T. (2007).Current landuseinthebasinof 5. ChineseAcademy ofScience, (2001). The vegetation atlasofChina,1:1,000,000.Beijing: 4. P., Baklanov GanzeyS.,(2008). Trans-boundary theproblems territories: ofsustainable 3. Anuchin OGIZ-GeographGIZ,V.A., Moscow: (1948).Geographical onManchuria. sketches 2. AnuchinD.N., Physical (1896).EastManchuria. geography I–II,pp. 149–157.(inRussian). 1. 16. Liu Hongyu, Zhang Shikui, Li Zhaofu et al., (2004). Impact on wetlands of large-scale land- onwetlands oflarge-scale LiuHongyu, LiZhaofuetal., ZhangShikui, (2004). Impact 16. I.F., Kryukov region. (1911).LandsofAmurRailway In: Works oftheAmurExpedition,Issue 15. Oblast. ofAmurskaya district onvegetation M.,(1912).Sketch ofZeisko-Bureinskii Korotkii 14. V., Karakin SheingauzA.,(2004).Landresources watershed. ofAmurRiver Bulletinofthe 13. Basin(People’s Khanka A.,(2001).Diagnostic analysis oftheLake Kachur RepublicofChina 12. Himiyama Y., Morishita Y.,11. Arai T., (2002). The useofJapanesetopographical mapsof Himiyama Y., H.,Kikuchi Ito T. Chinainthe1930.Re- etal., (1995).LanduseinNorth-East 10. HeF, GeQ, DaiJ, Rao Y, 9. (2008).Forest changeofChinainrecent 300years. of Journal P.I.,Glushakov 8. Economicandgeographical Moscow: description. (1948).Manchuria. GanzeyS.,Ermoshin V., 1930usingtwo N.,(2010).Thelandscapechangesafter Mishina 7. 7 REFERENCES in the20 Amur River. Geography andnaturalresources, № 2,pp. 17–25. Science Press, 260p. nature use. publishinghouse, 216p. Dalnauka Vladivostok: (inRussian). 300 p. (inRussian). pp. 306–310. use changesbyagriculture development: theSmallSanjiangplain,China.Ambio, 33(6), III. St.Petersburg, 400 p. (inRussian). In: Works oftheAmurExpedition.St.Petersburg, 3(16),pp. 103–129.(inRussian). Far BranchoftheRussianAcademy Eastern ofSciences, 4,pp. 23–37.(inRussian). and RussianFederation). Nairobi: UNEP/CRAES/PGIFEBRAS,136p. ence, 36,pp. 107–114. Chinaat1:50000for theLUCCNorteast study. ofthe Report Taisetsuzan ofSci- Institute ofthe port Taisetsuzan ofScience, Institute 30,pp. 25–35. geographical sciences, 18(1),pp. 59–72. OGIZ, 263p. (inRussian). Project, Kyoto,Amur-Okhotsk Japan,pp. 251–262. on Project, Report onAmur-Okhotsk ofLandUsemaps(1930and2000)//Report kinds th century. Geography andnaturalresources. Volume 31.Issue1,pp. 18–24. 227.06.2013 14:24:04 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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1 18 GEOGRAPHY 8 0 SheingauzA.,(2006).Spatial-temporal oftheRussianFar changesofintensity Eastern 20. V., Nikolskaya Chichagov V., (1957).Aboutjointresearches oftheChineseandSoviet 19. changesinagricultural productioninChina:three (1982).Structural Nor- K., Nakagane 18. Liverovskii Y., RubtsovaL.,(1962).Soilandgeographic zoning ofPri-Amurye. Issuesofna- 17. 6 Yamane intheAmur offorest efforts degradation andconservation M.,(2007).Overview 26. Wang Z.,ZhangB., ZhangS.,LiX.,LiuD., LiJ., DuanH.,(2006).Changesofland SongK., 25. andeconomicsofagriculture A,(1989).Management intheFar Tibekin economi- Eastern 24. People’s TheMongolian Republic, (1990). The nationalatlas. UlanBator–Moscow, 144p. 23. Tattsenko (2006). K., Tendencies theFar between ofeconomicinteraction EastofRussia 22. Sochava V., (1969). Vegetation ofAmurRiver Map Watershed, scale1:2,500,000.Moscow: 21. forest resources’ from themiddleof19 utilizationbytimberindustry Geographical Serials, 2,pp. 166–168.(inRussian). geographers watershed. inAmurRiver Proceedings oftheUSSRAcademy ofScience, provinces.theastern Economies,The Developing 20(4),pp. 414–436. State University,House oftheMoscow pp. 149–170.(inRussian). Publishing tural zoning oftheSovietFar Moscow: lay-out. withdistrict Eastinconnection on Amur–Okhotsk project,4,pp. 111–122. on Amur–Okhotsk century, basininthetwentieth withafocusRiver onHeilongjiangprovince, China.Report andassessment, 112(1–3),pp.monitoring 69–91. China.Environment valuesin SanjiangPlain, Northeast use andofecosystem service 335p. Publishingcal region (inRussian). houseofKhabarovsk, (1858–1985).Khabarovsk: China. publishinghouse, 216p.and Northeast Dalnauka (in Russian). Vladivostok: The USSRAcademy ofScience. (inRussian). present days. SpatialEconomics, 3,pp. 74–91.(inRussian). Viktor V.Ermoshin with K.S. Ganzei). with K.S. ofAmurriver basin(2012, Landscape mappingofRussian part nature managementat Far East(2010,withco-authors); of environmental issues. publications:Regional Main GISin of hisresearch liesoncartography, GIS,geoinformation analysis director ofthePacific ofGeography Institute FEBRAS. The focus Geophisics SBRAS,Russia.SinceMarch 2010heisadeputy (Diploma), received thePhD from Geologyand the Institute University, graduated in1975andobtainedtheMaster’s degree studiedGeography attheLeningrad State th century to the century 227.06.2013 14:24:04 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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1 9 Mount Mount (2007,with co-authors). Wrangell, Alaska Pacific intheNorth regions dustandtritium atmospheric detected from anicecore from Takauyki Sergei S.Ganzei open water (2012, with co-authors); Intra-annual variations in variations Intra-annual open water (2012,withco-authors); new environmental continentalwatershed with system linking Peninsula (2012,withco-authors); “Giant Fish-Breeding Forest”: a total organic for carbon past300years intheKamchatka and dehydroabietic, vanillicandp-hydroxybenzoic acids)and are: Icecore records tracers(levoglucosan ofbiomassburning regions mainpublications bymeansofgeochemicaltracers. His research analyses ofenvironmental concerns changesincold Japan, in1993.NowAssociate Professor, University. His Hokkaido (2009, withco-authors). dynamics oflandusewithintheAmurbasinin20thcentury of sustainablenature use(2008,withP.Ya. Baklanov); The main publicationsare: Trans-boundary theproblems territories: direc deputy tor ofthePacific of Geography Institute FEBRAS.His Ecology Problems FEBRASin2005. The lastyears hewasa State in1982andDrSciencefrom University Institute Water and
Shiraiva (1954–2011)received thePhD from Moscow received the PhD from Hokkaido University, received thePhD from Hokkaido 227.06.2013 14:24:04 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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2 20 GEOGRAPHY 0 tel.: +7 9025 641519, e-mail: [email protected] tel.: +79025641519,e-mail: level increased from of82cm(underits inthelake The intra-annualfluctuations hydroelectric ...,1991]. system [Monitoring but isheavily influenced bytheAngara does notdependonnaturalfactors part for themostpresent, Baikal thelevel ofLake regime [Galaziy, ofthelake 1988]. Thus, at to theformation ofanewhydrological the Pacific system), Ocean whichhasled (455,61 m;here andfurther, measured in 1,2 minrelation to itsnaturallevel rose bymore than Baikal level ofLake by1959,theaverageand theUst-Ilim), hydroelectric power stations(theBratsk of thesubsequentcascadeAngara hydroelectric power stationin1957and After commissioningoftheIrkutsk classification, vector layer image, interpretation, automated decrease inthe Yarki’s sandbararea. data. The analysissuggestsasystematic classification ofthemulti-temporal Landsat files were generated from theautomated sensing dataoftheEarth. Vector shape the usingremote Yarki Baikal) islands(North of astudyonchangesinthecoastalline 3 * 2 Arnold K. Tulokhonov 1 670047, Russia; tel.: +7 9024 585468, e-mail: [email protected] 670047, Russia;tel.: +79024585468,e-mail: [email protected] fax: +73012433676;e-mail: (BINM SBRAS);Sakhyanovoy st.6,Ulan-Ude, 670047,Russia;tel.: +73012433380, ofNature SiberianBranchoftheRussianAcademyInstitute Management, ofSciences ABSTRACT. INTRODUCTION KEY WORDS: BY CONTROL OF OF THE BAIKAL COASTAL LINE CAUSED SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DYNAMICS Deputy Director oftheBINMSBRAS;Sakhyanovoy Deputy st.6,Ulan-Ude, 670047,Russia; Corresponding author Laboratory of Geo-Ecology oftheBINMSBRAS;Sakhyanovoy ofGeo-Ecology st.6,Ulan-Ude,Laboratory Corresponding oftheRussianAcademy Member ofS The paperpresents theresults remote sensing, multispectral 1 , Yendon Zh.Garmaev THE LAKE limits of the water level in Lake Baikal under limits ofthewater Baikal level inLake of theRussianFederation №234 “On the the 2001Resolutionof Government Administration initiated theadoptionof Oblastin agreement with theIrkutsk Government oftheRepublicBuryatia order toIn prevent suchprocesses, the of JSC “Irkutskenergo” [Hydropower..., 1999]. also anegativewiththelitigation experience there is damage to theeconomy ofBuryatia; system. There are estimates oftheeconomic the naturalbiological complexofthelake widespread environmental damageto land andsettlements. There hasbeena water logging, andfloodingofagricultural areas, beaches, andcoastalstructures), coast(coastalforests,eastern recreation and erosion ofthecoastlinelow consequence, there wasamassdestruction there were a well level above marks 457m.As high-waterDuring years ofthemid-1990s, with alltheensuingconsequences. reservoir into anartificial Baikal of Lake hydroelectric stationisthetransformation end-result oftheIrkutsk oftheconstruction has ledto theerosion ofthecoastline. The biodiversity, water birds andanimals, and oftheaquaticfloraandfauna,productivity level onthe hadanegativethe lake impact implementation) [Atlas..., 1993]. ofThe rise natural regime) to thecontrol 94cm(after 2* , BairZh. Tsydypov ciences, Direct LEVEL REGIME or ofthe 3 Baikal Baikal 227.06.2013 14:24:04 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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2 of theshallowarea oftheUpperAngara could destroy theentire uniqueecosystem water just disappearandthecold Baikal conditions, the Yarki islandsystem could under 3–5day-straight specific wave level approaches thelake 457mandIf area. Baikal holidayattractive destinationsintheNorth sandy beachesmake Yarki oneofthemost andlong upto 24°C), warms (the lake Angara. Picturesque water scenery, warm andtheUpper oftheKichera estuaries is separated from theislandsby themainland the villageNizhneangarsk; width. The sandbaroftheislandisnear inlengthand200m system of17km shoal (Fig. 1). The Yarki isasandyisland from the open Baikal Verkhneangarsky consideration; theseislandsseparate the of the Yarki islandsrequires individual A real threat ofacomplete destruction the rangeof456to 457m. Baikal” regulates in level fluctuations thelake of theFederal Law “On Protection ofLake economic andotheractivities”. This by-law 1 Fig. 1. A fragment of a topographic map 1:500 000 scale (the North Baikal region). Baikal North (the scale 000 1:500 map atopographic of 1.Fig. Afragment (The name of the Yarki islands is shown in red.) in shown is islands Yarki the of name (The 1997]. in thenearest 30–40years [Ymetkhenov, ofthe complete destruction Yarki may occur the islandsis0,8–1,0m/yr. Consequently, the area, annualrate thelong-term oferosion of lithodynamicresearchhas conducted inthis According who to theestimate ofA.L.Rybak control capacity. 2011]. [Potemkin, Suturyn, level to ofthelake thetoprise oftheflood- hydroelectric system beforethe Irkutsk the of tothat hadexisted theconstruction prior but doesnoteven maintaintheconditions ofthe destruction occurring Yarki islands, notonlydoescompensatematerial the the volume oftheincoming sedimentary withfloodwater.particles Consequently, supplying theinflowofsuspendedsandy Angara River, hasbeenalready incapable of oftheUpper part Dagara withtheestuarial shore to from the thevillageNishzneangarsk Wave withintheentire ofthe extent activity and to itswater level regime. There willbechangesto basin theentire lake 40–40 couldextend Baikal Angara raceofomul;thelengthLake deltas, including theUpperand theKichera km to the north. to thenorth. km 227.06.2013 14:24:04 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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2 22 GEOGRAPHY 2 4.7 + ENVI EX software application(www.4.7 +ENVIEXsoftware processing usingENVI wasconducted Image coastline changesofthesandbar. 5) compilationofthefinalmap 4) creation ofthematiclayers andediting; classification followed bygeneralization); 3) objects’ interpretation (thematic fragments; necessary composites, coordinatewise isolationof –synthesisoftheRGB- 2) image-processing from theInternet; imagery Landsat 1) downloadoforthorectified involved:used inourwork The procedure for satellite interpretation classification oftheterritory. optimal interpretation andautomated zonal for theclassification ofsatellite imagery of the automatedchosen thealgorithm ontheEarth’soccurring surface. We have multi-temporal datafor studiesofchanges provide for precise georeferencing of processing technologies ofspaceimagery geoinformationof itschanges;modern the conditionsofEarth’s and surface andtimelyrepresentationan objective of is data. Regularspaceimagecollection of the Yarki islandsbasedonremote sending The paperanalyzes changesinthe coastline OF THE NATURAL ENVIRONMENT THEMATIC CLASSIFICATION hne ubrRslto,mBn rm mTo, nm From, nm Band Resolution,m Channel number 5Pnhoai 2 900 12 500 2350 690 900 605 520 1750 515 10400 2080 630 760 Panchromatic 525 1550 450 infrared –2 Middle Far infrared 15 infrared –1 Middle 30 Near-infrared 60 Red 30 Green 30 Blue 8 30 7 30 6 30 5 4 3 2 1 Table 1. Spectral bands (channels) of the radiometer Landsat TM and ETM+ TMand Landsat radiometer the of (channels) bands Table 1. Spectral multiband imagesisthesynthesisofcolor One ofthemaindirectionsuse we to obtainthescenescloseindates. tried inany case, cloudiness andpoorimagequality; were closeindate, interfered: otherfactors Even ifthescenes for thesametime-period. paths, itwasnotpossibleto downloadscenes to thenature oftheLandsatsatellite Due –7). cloudiness –0%,imagequality 4) August 29,2009(spectroradiometer TM, –7); TM, cloudiness–0%,imagequality 3) September 22,2006(spectroradiometer study area. therefore, –9); imagequality cloudiness –17%,however, nocloudsinthe 2) August 12,2000(spectroradiometer ETM+, –9); cloudiness –0%,imagequality 1) July3,1994(spectroradiometer TM, oflightconditions: and thebestquality bystability, ischaracterized period duration, were downloadedbecausethesummer four “summer” scenesoftheLandsatplatform (USGS) through theGloVis search system; oftheUSGeological Survey the geoportal imagery. The datawere downloadedfrom on themulti-temporal andmulti-spectral ofthe Mapping Yarki island system wasbased processed usingArcView3.3. The thematicvector layers created were data interpretation andGISprocessing. forcomplete setoffunctions remote sensing ittvis.com/ENVI) thatincludesthemost 227.06.2013 14:24:04 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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2 class. If the brightness parameters ofapixel thebrightness class. If of theisolated ranges, itisincludedinthis apixel parameters fitwithinone brightness If values (minimalandmaximal) ineachclass. in eachpixel are compared withthelimit parameters Then, thevaluesofspectral valuesfor ofthisclass.brightness theobjects are isolated andtheseareas delineate the parameters,of spectral rectangularareas follows from thename, intheclassification and there are onlyfew classespresent. As it different donotoverlap practically objects of brightness cases whenvaluesofspectral isolate coastline. This method isusedin method toclassification withrectangular (i.e.,We withtraining) usedthesupervised sets for theclassification withtraining. land, whichwere later usedasthetraining onwaterwe polygonal and selected objects never ofbrightness), theminterms overlaps (i.e., italmost with othernaturalobjects of thereflective coefficientincomparison andhasthelowest values brightness spectral and water isrelatively uniform of interms was to differentiate landandwater between Regions Becausethetask ofInterest (ROIs). phaseinvolvedThe next obtainingthe from theobtainedRGB-composites. completely encompassthe Yarki were cut The fragments (21,5 light. oftheinfraredassociated withitsabsorption (includingblackcolor),whichis looks darker visible bandonly. As water getsdeeper, it visiblewiththechannelsin details poorly andaccentuationofhidden water boundary differentiationallows distinct oftheland- 1). 4:4:3 (Table This combinationofchannels composite withacombinationofchannels i.e., we RGB- created apseudo-colored color, andthered visibleband–bluecolor, color, thefirstmiddleinfrared band–green thenearinfraredband–red spectral of: false colorrendering. We usedsynthesis delineation usingimageswithintentional definitionand feasible object to conduct is subsequent automated classification.It images for visualinterpretation withthe 3 × 17 m that km) 11,7 different clusters (for example, dueto light may be inbecause thesameobjects merging andsplittingofclassesfurther obtained mapoftheclassification required identified automatically. However, the classification, becausetheclusters are parameters compared withthesupervised withcloseinvaluesinterpretedobjects reflects more the groups objectively of classification mapwasobtained;the classification,a theunsupervised After distance–5pixels.minimal spectral standard deviationinsideaclass–5,and of pixels for classisolation –3,maximal from themean–13,minimalnumber iteration) –5%,maximalstandard deviation of pixels thatchangetheirclasswiththenext iterations –20,convergence limit(anumber number ofclasses–2,maximal the optimal(inouropinion)parameters: structure.brightness) We have selected ofspectral (interms with anon-contrast The methodallowsdelineatingcontours object. informationof prior onasurvey feasible intheabsence to usethisalgorithm Organizing Data Analysis Technique). is It (the ISODATA Self- method–theIterative classification oftheunsupervised algorithm we usedthe the landandwater surfaces, addition,inorder toIn differentiate between 2010]. subsequent processing [Tulokhonov, wereand land;theseoverlaps eliminated in parameters ofthesandbarshoal brightness ofthe overlap isolation methodisapartial class. of thisobject The downsideofthis with arelatively uniform characteristics class didnotexceed 2,whichisassociated from meaninthe thebrightness “water” brightness. The maximalstandard deviation andthestandardbrightness deviationof have calculated theaverage valueofpixel For ofthestandard eachtype sites, we andland. as thetrainingsets:water surface Two ofthestandard types sites were selected classificationare possible.object fit withinseveral ranges, several optionsof values thebrightness If unclassified objects. do notfitinany range, itisincludedinthe 227.06.2013 14:24:04 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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2 24 GEOGRAPHY 4 of 3 values ofadjacentpixels inaslidingwindow of theimagesoccurred dependingonthe processing, changesinthesize ofeachpixel thecourseof image generalization.In random errors, inother words, to perform andto reduceobjects noiseandother enhance perceptance oftherecognizable analysis.” ofthismethodisto The purpose classification processing using “majority sites “water-land (non-water)” wasthepost- step intheinterpretationThe next ofthe the Landsatchannels. intheutilized combinationof water surface ofthe because ofthereflective properties isdefinedclearly the water-land boundary relatively and brightness uniform inspectral thatlandontheimagesis due to thefact classification appeared to besimilar. This is andsupervised through theunsupervised The landareals ontheimagesobtained were used. objects, additionalinterpretation parameters in thesecondcase, inorder to separate the were merged withinthesameclass, while thefirstcase, theclusters In brightness). present inthesamecluster (dueto similar conditions) anddifferent canbe object × 3pixels insize. Fig. 2. Comparison of the vector layers of 1994 and 2009: changes of the Yarki sandbar Yarki the of changes 2009: and 1994 of layers vector the of Comparison 2. Fig. aeYa Area, Year km № Name 09453il.h 091.855 2.052 2.524 2009 2000 1994 2009-4-5-3_isle.shp 2000-4-5-3_isle.shp 1994-4-5-3_isle.shp 3 2 1 Table 2. The area of the vector layers of the sandbar Yarki sandbar the of layers vector the of area The Table 2. 2009 compared with2000(by0,2km reduction inthearea ofthe Yarki sandbarin 2000, and2009. systematicThere isadistinct vector layers have beenobtained:for 1994, the sandbars).As aresult, 3multi-temporal places looksalbescentandblendsinwith insome of theimage(thewater surface dueto apoorquality classified correctly The imagefor 2006couldnotbepost- obtain onlythevector layers ofthesandbar. water andlandsites were edited inorder to format. Then, theinterpreted contours ofthe raster imageswere into converted thevector theobtained thepost-classification, After 1994 (by0,7km bar Yarki digitally usingtheGPS mapping order toIn measure thewidthofsand- ...,1976]. [Dynamics ofabrasionprocessesled to theactivization off hasincreased inthelong-term. This has level andwithcontrolled atits1mrise run- ofthewater amplitude ofthefluctuations in thewater level andwave impact. The ofthe of thedestruction Yarki istherise onthelake’sdestructed side. The maincause deteriorate andthatthecoastline isprimarily can beseenthattheislandscontinueto It 2 ) (Table 2,Fig.) (Table 2–3). 2 2 ) and 227.06.2013 14:24:04 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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2 sandbar in2009. The distancebetween ofthewas added(№3)attheboundary edges decreased. Onemore waypoint the sandbarthat thedistancebetween from thewpt-file (Fig. canbeseen, 4).It withthewaypointsand itwasoverlaid m. Then, the2009imagewasloaded thesepoints was243,7distance between in thewpt-file ofthewaypoints; the coordinates ofpoints1and2were saved were compared onthe1994image. The of the island part widest site oftheleft software OziExplorer, 2way pointsinthe 5 Fig. 4. Changes in the width of the Yarki sandbar on the 2009 image. The sand shoals are in light blue. blue. light in are shoals sand The image. 2009 the on sandbar Yarki the of width the in Changes 4. Fig. Fig. 3. Comparison of the vector layers of 2000 and 2009: changes of the Yarki sandbar Yarki the of changes 2009: and 2000 of layers vector the of Comparison 3. Fig. In the window (bottom right) the entire system of the Yarki islands is shown is islands Yarki the of system entire the right) (bottom window the In island flattening [Vicka etal, 2006]. island flattening [Vicka in the Yarki hasenhanceddunedeflationand ofvegetation byrecreatingdestruction people effect ofthehydrocomplex. The intense caused bytechnogenic thebackwater factors: atpresent hasbeenspecifically observed ofthecoastalprocesses phic activization to emphasize thatthecatastro- isimportant It difference is85,1m. 243,7 min1994to 158,6min2009;the width oftheislandhasdecreased from waypoints 1and3was158,6m. Thus, the 227.06.2013 14:24:04 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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2 26 GEOGRAPHY 6 Specifically this limit levels identifiedinthefederal law. over the part level initsnorthern the lake regime asubstantial increase determine of andthewind spatial contours ofthelake surging associated withthenature ofthe winds, andatsouthern period fall storm the bywave In been destructed impact. Many islandsofthe Yarki system have 4. Monitoring the status of Lake Baikal (1991). Izrael, (1991).Izrael, Baikal thestatusofLake Yu. Monitoring andAnokhin, Yu.A. (Eds.) Gidrome- 4. ecosystem conditions(1999). Atutov, Baikal Hydropower and the Lake A.A.,Pronin, N.M. 3. inquestionsandanswers. Galaziy, M.:Mysl.221p. Baikal G.I.(1988).Lake 2. Federal ofRus- of Geodesy andCartography Service (1993).Moscow: Baikal AtlasofLake 1. information, theneedto increase the With alackofhydro-meteorological reservoir.of theIrkutsk inadvanceorreleasingallow storing water accurate weather forecasts are possibleto number ofhydrological stationsexistand isrealistic,this scenario provided asufficient and requires itsseasonalspread. However, the taskofhydropower generation electricity course, this greatlyof 82cm.Of complicates werecomplex, whenfluctuations intherange hydropower Irkutsk oftheBaikal construction thatexisted before fluctuations term the level regime withintheaverage long- the questionofcontrol ofthe water ecologically balancedsystem andto raise These circumstances give reason to preserve andtheUpper Angara. areas oftheKichera consequences to thebiotaofestuarial withthecatastrophic north water further may causetheexpansionofcoldBaikal ofthe destruction Yarki inthenearest future even attheexistingwater level regime, the in bay-, beach-,andshoal-bars. Moreover, are substantialchangesinthesandislandsand ofthe destruction Yarki islandsystem –there CONCLUSION REFERENCES teoizdat. 262p. (Eds.), and Tulokhonov, (Ed-in-Chief.). Publishing Novosibirsk: A.K. HouseofRAS,281p. sia, 160p. situation causes the intense situation causestheintense further monitoring work isrequired. work monitoring further erosion (inm/year) andthesituationforecast, dam, etc.). For therate ofcoastal ascertaining release ofwater through thelocksofIrkutsk of thefillingreservoir, theconditionsof year, content inaparticular water thetiming uniform time (it dependsonthe a strictly donotoccurat and drawdown ofBaykal thatfilling thefact especially considering processesrates ofmodern ofcoastalretreat, is difficult to quantitatively assessthe It on theanalysisofremote sensingdata. retreat over ahydrological year basedonly aboutaconsistent coastline with certainty andatthistime, itisdifficult to speak nary The conclusionsofthispaperare prelimi- ofthe north Yarki islandsystem. bays, and andBarguzynsky Chyvyrkuysky activity, for example, inIstomino, Lemasovo, the sites protected from theintense wind First, Baikal. coastsofLake at and northern of thegauging stationsontheeastern increase to thenumber area, itisnecessary the water withinitsentire level ofthelake influence ofdifferent naturalphenomenaon to improve forecasting, andto avoid the timely information onthewater level regime, hydropower order system. to In obtain ofthe to theconstruction conditions prior water to thenatural Baikal levels oftheLake the amplitudeofminimalandmaximal legislative decreasewith themandatory of processes. This problem canonlybesolved be more careful inrespectto thecoastal to special economiczones, itisnecessary inthe development industry ofthetourism and ofshallowwaters ofBaikal, productivity 227.06.2013 14:24:05 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
1 4 : 2 4 : 0 5 ggi213.indd 27 i 2 1 3 . i n d d
2 . Ymetkhenov, A.B. (1997). The nature ofthetransitionzone ontheexampleofBaikal 9. S.,Kozyreva, Vicka, Ye.A., Trzhtsinsky, Yu.B., Shchipek, T. (2006). 8. The islnds –an Yarki inBaikal Tulokhonov, A.K., Tsydypov, B.Zh., Garmaev, Ye.Zh., Andreev, 7. ofthe S.G.(2010).Dynamics underthenewwater level (1976)Pynygyn, ThedynamicsoftheshoresBaikal A.A. ofLake 6. Potemkina, ofthe of theconservation aspects T.G., A.N.(2011).Geo-ecological Suturyn, 5. 7 region. Publishing Novosibirsk: HouseoftheSBRAS.231p. transformationexample ofthemodern oflandscapes. IECSBRAS.69p. Irkutsk-Sosnowets: development. pp. 103–110. Selenga delta).Ulan-Ude. ofEurasia:theorigin, evolution, Deltas ecology, andeconomic onmulti-temporal satellite imagesLandsat(anexampleofthe Baikal shoreline ofLake 88p. Nauka. (Ed.) Moscow: sandbar Environmental Engineering. Baikal). Yarki №6.pp. 52–61. (Northern Yendon Zh.Garmaev, K. TulokhonovArnold BairZh. Tsydypov, basin of Lake Baikal. basin ofLake ofuseandprotection ofwaterprinciples resources oftheriver papers and11books. Hehasdeveloped scientific(hydrological) hydrology andgeo-ecology.Hepublishedabout100scientific inthefieldof Ecology oftheBINMSBRAS.Heisanexpert ofGeo- Director onScience,Deputy HeadoftheLaboratory naturalterritory. economic nature managementintheBaikal ofA.K. The works Tulokhonov suggestanewconceptoflegaland ofresolutionpractice ofdifferent levels ofenvironmental conflicts. the adaptiveand nature oftheregions Asia andthetheory ofInner including 30monographs. Hehasdeveloped thefundamentalsof of300scientificpapers, resources; theauthorandco-author environmental protection, andsustainable useofnatural inthefieldofgeomorphology,an expert geo-ecology, Professor, andHonored ScientistoftheRussianFederation. Heis Russian Academy ofSciences, ofGeographical Sciences, Doctor of natural environment in the Baikal region.of naturalenvironment intheBaikal for appliedenvironmental problems, includingtheinterpretation about 70scientificpapers. Headapted remote sensing techniques inthefieldofremote sensingand GIS.Hepublished is anexpert oftheBINMSBRAS).He ofGeo-Ecology Researcher (Laboratory Doctor of Doctor Technical Sciences, isSenior Doctor ofGeographical Sciences,Doctor isCorresponding ofthe Member
is 227.06.2013 14:24:05 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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2 28 GEOGRAPHY 8 patterns. andlateral distribution vertical fractionation, from coarserto finerfractions. most metals, were thevariations decreasing differed size. Fоr depending on particle Variation metals inconcentrationsofheavy wereNi found inthecoarsesiltfraction. The minimumloadsofFe, Co, Mn, Cu, and ofcases)wasfound inclaymajority fraction. maximum loadofCr, (inthe Zn,andNi andagenetichorizon. on asoiltype The sand, depending finesilt,andclay fractions Co, Cu andPb hadhighconcentrationsin cases, infinesand. SuchmetalsasFe, Mn, values onlyincoarsesiltand, insome and mediumsilt,whileZrhaditshighest highest levels of Ti were found incoarse concentrations wasfound for Ti andZr. The size andmetal thefraction between definedrelationshipin thecatena. Aclearly genesisofasoilhorizon,type, andposition soil elementchemicalproperties, factors: wasdefinedbyacomplexofsize fraction concentration ofmetalsinaparticular Upland.Moscow The results showed that middle Protva basinontheSmolensk- River forestedof two catenas located inthe havesize fractions beenanalyzed insoils Pb, particle andZnassociated withvarious ofFe,distribution Ti, Zr, Cu. Co, Ni, Mn, Cr, 2 1 Olga A.Samonova * Corresponding author [email protected] Russia; e-mail: о[email protected] Russia; e-mail: KEY WORDS: ABSTRACT. (SMOLENSK–MOSCOW UPLAND) IN SOILS OF FORESTED CATENASTWO IN PARTICLE SIZE FRACTIONS DISTRIBUTION OF METALS Faculty ofGeography, Moscow State University, Moscow, 119991, Faculty ofGeography, Moscow State University, Moscow, 119991, soils, metals, heavy grain-size The concentrationsand 1 , ElenaN.Aseyeva 2 * annual precipitation ofabout600mm. The winters (mean andmean TJanuary =–9,9°C), summers (mean TJuly cold =17,5°C), continental withmoderately moist,warm of thestudyarea ishumid-temperate- Upland(314masl). Moscow The climate southwest from onthe Smolensk- Moscow toThe studyarea the islocated 90km of theRussianPlain. soil catenas taigazone located insouthern intwo size fractions metals intheparticle study isto analyzeof patterns distribution systems. of catenary ofthis The purpose insoils size fractions metals across particle for example, of aboutthedistribution have notyet beenstudied. Littleisknown, and itsrelationship to metalconcentrations size distribution oftheparticle some aspects andLadonin,2005].However,[Plyaskina within soilprofile anddownthe slope thatare morefractions easilytrans-located A wide rangeof metalsisabundantinfiner controlling metalconcentrationsinsoils. is proved to beoneofthemajorfactors specifically, metals(HMs). heavy Texture oftoxic indistribution patterns elements, background (reference) to know is important ecological assessmentofthesoilcover,In it STUDY AREA INTRODUCTION 227.06.2013 14:24:05 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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2 samples ofcatena 1andtopsoil samples footslope Allfractionated soils–4fractions). slope- (watershed summit soils–6fractions; depending onsoilposition in thecatenas 0,25–0,05 mm,0,05–0,01 <0,001mm) 0,001 mm)or4size classes(1–0,25mm, mm, 0,01–0,0050,005–0,001< into 6(1–0,25mm,0,25–0,05mm,0,05–0,01 studied soils. 20sampleswere fractionated fromsamples taken genetichorizons ofthe outon35 granulometric analysis wascarried Chemical (рН,organic and carbon) calcareous rock fragments insubsoil(Fig. 1). featureswith calcaric dueto thepresence of podzolic soilsandsoddyatfootslope 2 represented atoposequence ofsod- with AC profile (footslope positions).Catena summit andslopepositions)soddysoils soils withAEBtCprofile (thewatershed sampled. Catena 1includedsod-podzolic soils ofthesepositionswere and described along thecatenas were definedandthe Catena 2facestherivervalley. positions Major ends inalocaldepression –agullybottom. area were for selected theresearch. Catena 1 Two heterolithic ofthestudy catenas typical territory. and meadowsoccupyabout40%ofits about 60%ofthestudiedarea. Arablelands or oakandlinden-spruceforests thatcover mixed small-leaved andspruce secondary from mixed to deciduousforests. Typical are islocated inthetransitionzone territory Natural vegetationbecausethe varies with themediumhumuscontent dominate. soils, according to theRussianclassification) the studyarea, podzoluvisols (sod-podzolic thesoilcover deposits. of In Quaternary ofthe mantle loamthatoverlays alltypes is common parent oninterfluves material parent for materials soilformation; themost as the glacialandglaciofluvialorigin serve and gullies. Boulderclays, silts, andsandsof fluvialreliefpost-Moscow valleys ofriver dated glaciationandthe to theMoscow is represented byglacialrelief oninterfluves ofthestudyareapresent-day morphology 9 MATERIALS AND METHODS was typical of was typical sequenceofthesoilhorizons the vertical in Bthorizon. Aneven across distribution maximum clay accumulationwasobserved podzoliz the studiedsoilsare inclay. rich Where have shownthatBandChorizons of The results analysis ofphysical fractionation positions and0,7%inthegullybottom). the soilsofwatershed summitandslope than inthesoilsofcatena 2(about2–3%in andespecially inthegullybottom waslower soils ofthewatershed andslopepositions of gleyzation. The humuscontent inthe more water and, therefore, showfeatures ofthecatenathe lowest receive section are entirely acidic(рН4,8–5,0). The soilsin fromvaried 2to 4%. The soilsofcatena 1 neutral (рН7,2–7,4). The humuscontent are(рН 5,1–6,4)andthoseoflower sections of catena 2are acidicandslightly mobilization. The soilsintheuppersections responsible forgeneral properties metal The studiedsoilsdiffered of interms used asreference objects. this coefficient,soilsofsummitpositionsare ofacatena. Forthe lower parts calculating positions andsubordinate landscapesof differences soilsof summit between indicates granulometric orgeochemical pedogenesis. The second, L–coefficient, placeduring to highlightchangesthattake ofthesoil.material This coefficientisused and thesameparameter intheparent the studied parameterbetween inahorizon thefirst,R–coefficient,isratio fractions: size oftheelementsandparticle distribution andcatenary thevertical to describe Two ofcoefficientswere types estimated usingSPSS. performed statistics,analysis anddescriptive andwas Statistical treatment includedcorrelation usingatomicwas determined absorption. analysis.using quantitative spectral Fe Cu. Co, Ni, Cr, Pb, andZnconcentrations of catena 2were analyzed for Ti, Zr, Mn, RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS ation and lessivage take place, the ation andlessivagetake medium silt (0,01–0,005 mm). 227.06.2013 14:24:05 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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3 30 GEOGRAPHY 0 7 – sod-podzolic soils; 8 – soddy soils with buried horizons of soils withburied soils; 8–soddy 7 –sod-podzolic 14 15 forest; –oak-linden –birch-spruce forest; Quaternary deposits (1–5): deposits Quaternary 1–mantle 2–loamy deluvium; loam, 3–calcareous glacialloam; Catenary positions (I–IV): I – watershed summit positions; II–III slope positions; slope I–watershed positions summit positions;Catenary (I–IV): II–III Fig. 1. The studied soil catenas (catena 1 – above, catena 2 – below). 2–below). catena 1–above, (catena catenas soil 1. studied Fig. The Soils (6–11): soils (p 6–sod-podzolic Vegetation (12–18): 12 13 –meadow; forest; –spruce-oak-birch 4 – glaciofluvial sands; 5– loamy andproluvium;4 –glaciofluvial deluvium 19 andlocations profiles –names thesoil of 10 soils; 11 –soddy gleyicsoils; –soddy IV – footslope and toeslope positions; andtoeslope IV –footslope 18 –forest herbaceous community; odzoluvisols), ploughed in the past; past; inthe odzoluvisols), ploughed 16 17 forest; –aspen-spruce forest; –birch-oak sod-podzolic soils; 9 – soddy soils with calcaric subsoil; subsoil; withcalcaric soils soils; 9–soddy sod-podzolic 227.06.2013 14:24:05 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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3 in each of the particle size fractions. in eachoftheparticle (in thedenominator) oftheHMsconcentrations numerator), minimum,andmaximumvalues Table showsthesimpleaverage (inthe 1.It are soilmaterials fractionated represented in The results ofchemicalanalysis of the illuvial processes. for clay –acombinationoftheeluvialand horizons, and organic inthesurface material For finesilt,itwastheaccumulationof was associated withsoilforming processes. –finesiltandclay size – fractions particle oftwo distribution indicate thatthevertical show any clearpatterns. The obtainedresults mm) andfine(0,25–0,05sanddidn’t ofcoarseandmedium (1–0,25 distribution accumulates inhumichorizons. The vertical inhumus.abundant intopsoil rich Fine silt somecases, was thissizeIn fraction 1 n –numberofsamples. Metals e%3.9 Fe,% n3082.7 Mn o21.9 Co u88.1 Cu n46.4 Zn b16.3 Pb r50.3 Cr i44.6 Ni r85 Zr i1198.2 Ti Table 1. Concentrations of HMs (ppm) in particle size fractions in the soils of the catenas the of soils the in fractions size particle in (ppm) HMs of Table 1. Concentrations Coarse andme- dium sand 330–18000 120–6000 0.4–13.9 n =19* 50–170 20–150 26–210 30–130 1–0.25 14–88 8–43 7–76 350–15 000 1900–7000 ieSn oreSl eimSl ieSl Clay Fine Silt MediumSilt Coarse Silt Fine Sand 0.25–0.05 270–1700 14–120 30–150 0.5–6.9 n =19 3806.7 23–84 13–60 706.4 9–37 4–27 2840 49.4 14.6 35.8 59.7 65.3 3.2 20 Particle sizeParticle fractions, mm 6700–10 000 0.05–0.01 850–1500 350–820 40–140 0.6–5.2 n =18 8271.4 1159.2 17–44 54–88 13–51 12–78 522.1 6–30 23.8 64.8 20.1 22.2 1.8 9.5 70 maximum loadofCr, (inmost Zn,andNi horizon, andpositioninthecatena. The genetic dependingonthesoiltype, fractions can accumulate insand, finesilt,andclay Such metalsasFe, Co, Mn, Cu, andPb minerals. primary associated itwiththeabundanceofsome byI.G.Pobedintsevadescribed [1975]who loadof High haveTi insiltfractions been in somecasesfinesand(0,25–0,05mm). had thehighestvaluesonlyincoarsesiltand silt (0,05–0,01mm,0,01–0,005mm),whileZr levels of Ti were found incoarseandmedium concentrations wasfor Ti andZr. The highest size andthehighest the fraction between the horizons. definedrelationship Aclearly and on thegenesisofbothfractions showed thattheirconcentrationsdepended The physical oftheHMs size fractionation 1200–12 000 0.01–0.005 250–510 330–600 21–110 80–220 1.4–2.4 54-100 15–43 20–63 357.5 451.4 145.7 n =7 8–25 8800 27.1 69.3 12.9 32.7 52.6 2.1 0.005–0.001 5600–11 000 420–1100 160–250 150–300 72–120 68–190 3.4–8.0 7171.4 28–49 14–31 42–80 203.3 717.1 109.4 208.6 n =7 38.0 97.9 22.6 63.7 5.0 4200–9000 400–5600 130–210 160–370 <0.001 96–130 82–200 4.6–7.3 n =18 6178.6 1459.3 20–49 20–32 70–88 173.9 112.6 107.3 33.6 24.9 80.5 240 5.6 227.06.2013 14:24:05 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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3 32 GEOGRAPHY 2 listed in Table 2. ofspecificsize fractions. typical They are identify theinterrelated elementgroups subpopulations allowed us tofraction sizeStatistical treatment ofthe particle inthesoilsamples. fraction controlled mainlybytheamountofsand fraction. The CrandPb concentrationswere were withtheamountof silt connected content, Zn,andPb whereas fraction Mn, samples were dependenton theclay linearly Fe, Cr, andCu concentrationsinthebulk Ni, Correlation analysishasshownthattheСo, position inthecatena. genesis ofasoilhorizon, aswell asthe and soil type element chemicalproperties, wasdefinedbyacomplexoffactors: fraction size concentration ofmetalsinaparticular transformation pedogenesis. during The and/orepigenetic origin ofthisfraction whichcanbearesultsilt fraction, ofeolian Co,Mn, Cu, wasfound andNi inthecoarse genetic horizon. The minimumloadofFe, (1–0,25mm)dependingonthe fraction second to maximumconcentrationinsand hadeitherthemaximum or et al, 1996].Ni clay mineralsandorganic matter [Titova on can beexplainedbyelementsorption cases) wasfound intheclay fraction. This Particle size mm Particle fraction, .0–.0 iC;N–rCu–Co Ni–Cr Ni–Co; 0.005–0.001 .1005C–rP–iC–nZn–Co–Ni Cu–Cr–Pb–Ni–Co–Zn 0.01–0.005 0.05–0.01 Cu–Cr–Pb–Ni–Co; Zn–Co–Ni–Pb–Cu Cu–Cr–Pb–Ni–Co; Pb–Co–Ti Zn–Cu-Co; Cr–Cu–Ni–Co; 0.05–0.01 0.25–0.05 <0.001 Mn–Zn; Mn–Co Pb–Co; Pb–Cu Pb–Co; Mn–Co Mn–Zn; <0.001 –.5Pb–Mn–Co–Zn 1–0.25 Table 2. Element associations in the fractionated soil material material soil fractionated the in associations Element Table 2. (based on the correlation analysis of data for catena 1) catena for data of analysis correlation the on (based Correlation between elements is signifi cant at 0.01level transformation pedogenesis. during andbyits size fraction origin ofa particular were size fractions definedbythe particle in the oftheHMsdistribution patterns (L coefficientsrangedfrom 0,03–7,0). The wasmore size fractions pronounced particle inthe dispersion andaccumulationpatterns the andthecontrastbetween soil material waslessuniform thaninthebulk fractions size oftheHMsinparticle distribution analysis ofL-coefficients hasshownthatthe those inthebulksoilsamplesbasedon with size fractions the HMsinparticle of distribution ofthecatenary Comparison toattributed slopemorphology. accumulation processes and, therefore, be oferosion–be explainedbytheintensity alongtheslopescan distribution fraction (catena 1). ofthesiltandclayThe patterns (catenamaterial 2)andglaciofluvialsands positions, itisrepresented bysandymoraine ofparent material.characteristics Atthese catenas. This corresponds to thetextural insubordinate ofthe sections observed wereThe highestamountsofsandfractions andassociatedof thesize metals. fractions inthedistribution patterns some catenary for theHMscontents indicated thatthere are top the analysisoffractionated soilmaterial The results ofthegranulometric analysisand Element groups Ti–Mn Correlation issignifi at 0.05level cant 227.06.2013 14:24:05 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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3 . Titova N.A., Travnikova metalcontent Z.N.(1996)Heavy ingranulometric L.S.,Kachnovich 3. Pobedintseva I.G.(1975)Soilsonancientweathering crusts. 175 p. MSUPublishing, Mos- 2. O.V., Plyaskina Ladonin D.V. size fractions metalcompounds inparticle (2005)Heavy 1. 3 REFERENCES (2012, withO.A. Samonova). oftheSmolensk-Moscow Upland) part systems (south-eastern landscape-geochemical insoilsoferosional Metals landscape andgeochemical systems (2004,withco-authors); metalmobilephases. andheavy publications:Basinorganizationsize Main of fractions part oftheSmolensk-Moscow Upland(2010,withE.N.Aseyeva). part differentiationauthors); Soil-geochemical ofminorerosional forms inthesouth-eastern Middle Volga forest-steppe regression ofmultivariate (experience analysis)(1996,withco- forest-steppe forms metalsinsoilsof ofheavy Mobile (1989,withN.S.Kasimov); Kazakhstan soil fractions. Pochvovedeniesoil fractions. 7,pp. Russian). 888–898.(In cow. Russian). (In Russian). (In 17,SoilScience 4,pp. Series 36–43. University: of somesoiltypes. HeraldofMoscow ElenaN.Aseyeva ОlgaA.Samonova balkas]). Her specific interest is associated with metals in particle Herspecificinterest isassociated withmetalsinparticle balkas]). systems andacross smallerosional landforms [gulliesand soil pedogenesis, ofmetalsalongcatenary anddistribution geochemical transformation ofparent during material (including ofsoilsinbackground territories geochemistry associated pollutantsredistribution insmallriver basins, Geography). Herrecent research interests includesediment- andSoilGeography (MSUFacultyLandscape Geochemistry of of (Spain)”). SheisSeniorResearcher oftheDepartment fluxes inthecascadesystem oftheGuadalhorce riverbasin her Ph. D. degree in2006(thethesis entitled “Lithogeochemical Background soil-geochemical structure of the Northern structureoftheNorthern Background soil-geochemical background insoils. geochemicalpatterns publications: Main intheformation of andtherolefractionation ofgranulometry Upland). Herspecificinterest isassociated metal withheavy theMiddle VolgaКazakhstan, region, theSmolensk-Moscow located inforest, forest-steppe, andsteppe zones (Northern naturalsystems metalsbehavioranalysis ofheavy invarious Soil Geography. Oneofthemajordirections ofherresearch isthe and ofLandscapeGeochemistry Researcher oftheDepartment obtained herPh.D. degree in1989.Currently, sheisLeading State (MSU),Faculty University ofGeography, in1976.She studiedgeography attheMSUandobtained graduated from theLomonosov Moscow 227.06.2013 14:24:05 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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3 34 ENVIRONMENT 4 1 adsorption/desorption flows, whiletheadsorption/desorption dominated andwere comparableto the in spring. flowsThe PCBsadvection of PCBsinthearea ofthe DanubeDelta to simulate apotential accidentalrelease modelcalculationwasperformed A 20-day at thebottom. andreversibledesorption, flowsofPCBs alsoconsiderssorption,sediment. It in detritus, andintheupperlayer of the concentrationofPCBsinsolution, the modelusesthree state variables: and transformation ofPCBsin theSea, bottom. To calculate thetransport as itsdepositionanderosion onthe and decompositionofdetritus, aswell considers gravitational sedimentation and astep of5minutes. The model resolution of5 modelhasahorizontalz-coordinate polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). This and transformation and ofdetritus of circulation withmodulioftransport combining aphysically complete block dimen sional modelwasdeveloped by 4 3 2 Vitaly A.Ivanov Svitlana P. Lyubartseva Ukraine; Ukraine; Tel.: [email protected] +380692430955,e-mail: Hydrophysical oftheNationalAcademy Institute Sevastopol, ofUkraine, ofScience Tel.: [email protected] +380692233179,e-mail: oftheNationalAcademyInstitute Sevastopol, ofUkraine, ofScience Ukraine; *Corresponding author [email protected]: National Academy Sevastopol, ofUkraine, ofScience Ukraine; Tel.: +380692556994, [email protected]: 2,99011; Kapitanskaya, Sevastopol, Ukraine; Tel.: +380692542528, ofShelfHydrophysics,Department Hydrophysical Director ofMarine Institute; ABSTRACT. BIPHENYLS IN THE BLACK SEA OF THE FIELDS OF POLYCHLORINATED NUMERICAL MODELING Senior Scientist, Department of Dynamics oftheOceanic Processes, ofDynamics Department Scientist, Marine Senior Leading Research Scientist, Wave Hydrophysical Marine Department, Theory Junior Scientist, Wave Hydrophysical Marine ofthe Institute Department, Theory Academician oftheNationalAcademy Headofthe ofUkraine, ofSciences × A mathematicalthree- 5 km, 45 vertical levels, 45vertical 5km, 1 , Andrii V. Bagaiev 4 2* , Sergey G.Demyshev sediments. desorption, adsorption, PCB transport, and suspendedphases. displaying dissolved thebalancebetween the water columnandsediments, and ofPCBsinvisualizing thedistribution thefield, allowstracking interface friendly and planningcounter-measures. Auser- dynamics ofpotential releases ofPCBs was developed; itallowsforecasting the application software end-user oriented adverse effects ontheecosystem. An to minimize sorbent active an artificial formed asaresult oftheapplication analyzes thedynamicsofPCBfields the spread ofPCBsinthesea. The paper natural buffer mechanism thatweakens asa serves ondetritus PCBs transport PCBs were boundto thesediments. The 16 days theaccident,18%of after accumulation ofPCBsonthebottom; the accident. There wasagradual days inthefirsttwo afterby detritus 20% ofdischarged PCBswere adsorbed diffusion fluxes were infinitesimal. Upto KEY WORDS: multidisciplinary model,multidisciplinary 3 , 227.06.2013 14:24:05 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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3 PCB congenerswithageneralformula positions. Theoretically, there may be209 meta-,orpara- (1–10) intheortho-, are atoms substituted withthechlorine bond (Fig. bytheinternuclear connected rings benzenecompounds consistingoftwo chemicals, belongto theclassofaromatic the mostcommonhighlytoxic synthetic ecosystems.affect marine PCBs, someof that, even inlowconcentrations, adversely anthropogenic persistent organic pollutants andtransformationresearch of ontransport ecological callsfor andanalyticalmonitoring The urgent needto address theproblems of recreational areas. resources, exploitationofmarine active and areas ofhighpopulationdensity, regions of relevant in these problems isparticularly Finding important. solutionto is alsovery accidental releases ontheexistingecosystem technology. However, of impact predicting achieved withthe reduction ofenvironmental hasbeen risks cleanup ofhazardous pollutants. Asignificant requires thesafety oftheenvironmentEnsuring 5 INTRODUCTION other measures besidesatimely 1). There, thehydrogen atoms introduction of introduction Fig. 1. Global distribution of PCBs low-waste C–C
S and capacitors. intransformersand solvents dielectrics plastics andelastomers; flameretardants; adhesives; plasticizers andfillersin components ofpaints, varnishes, and coolants andrefrigerants; lubricants; their wideapplicationashydraulic fluids; and excellent adhesion. This determined infats,solubility oils, andorganic solvents; flameresistance; goodacids andalkalis; to inertness stability; thermal properties; thermal, physical, insulating andelectrical exceptionaland chemicalproperties: due to anumberoftheiruniquephysical of PCBs. Suchwidespread useofPCBswas time, produced theworld ~2milliontons production wasterminated. this During 1929–1986 andthentheircommercial productionofPCBsoccurred inMass organisms even atlowconcentrations. andtoxicity to livingrespectively; inwater andlipids,and highsolubility bioaccumulation associated withlow chemical, andbiological transformations; prevalence; extr a numberofspecificfeatures: theglobal in real conditions. These compoundshave environmentbeen detected inthemarine a hundred ofindividualcongenershave 12 N 10 –n Cl n , where n=1–10.About eme resistance to physical, 227.06.2013 14:24:05 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
1 4 :
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3 36 ENVIRONMENT 6 PCB defoliants ( andSouth-EastAsia, whereIndia inthe1960s, contaminated sedimentsofthebasins sediments oftheBalticSeaandhighly western therelatively shelfisbetween clean sediments oftheBlackSeaanditsnorth- The degree ofPCBcontaminationthe ofPCBs.sediments intheglobaldistribution to demonstrate therole oftheBlack Sea 2004;Dove, Ariman, 2008] Hill, 2002; Bakan, Villeneuve, 1983;Fillmann, Readman,etal., shown inFig. [Burns, 1wascompiled after [Tanabe, Madhusree, etal., 1997]. The map intense accumulationofPCBsinbiota by pollution oftheBlackSeaaccompanied 2004]showasignificant Ariman, PCB Bakan, al., 2000;Fillmann, Readman, etal., 2002; Bayona, etal., Egorov, 1999;Zherko, et 1994;Maldonado,Experimental data[Orlova, on production. prohibitionmore than100years withastrict PCBs from theenvironment would take 2000]thatremoval Carman, of [Jonsson, areas hasbeenestimated oftheoceans. It the sedimentsofcoastalandoffshore ofseawater are sources ofre-contamination diffusion. andturbulent advection The main ofPCBsintheseaare the of transport physical mechanisms The mostimportant precipitation, and technogenic discharge. PCBs enter flow, theoceanwithriver makes itimpossibleto modelPCBs asmakes accumulation andrelease atthebottom, oftheprocessescomplex interaction of aswell asthe particles, organic carbon-rich Exceptional for to capacity PCBadsorption inthenaturalenvironment. PCBs transport effective methodsfor studyingprocesses of modelingisoneofthemost Mathematical to thecoastof Turkey. whichmonotonicallyof Odessa, decreases Danube, theRomaniancoast,and theGulf contamination ofthesedimentsRiver great showsahighdegree variability. of It of theBlackSea(Fig. by 1)ischaracterized ofPCBsinthesediments spatial distribution there development. israpidindustrial The used [Dioxins andHealth,1994]now “Agent Orange” ) were actively diffusive exchange ofdissolved PCBswith begins,(desorption) etc. Onthebottom, saturation. certain Then, thereverse process to particles ondetritus PCBs isadsorbed thewater column, and ofPCBsondetritus. In detritus sedimentation ofmono-disperse diffusion,andgravity turbulent advection, mechanisms: bytransport is determined ofPCBsinsea thatthedistribution 3) (Fig. The modelisbuiltontheassumption volume [Ivanov, Belokopytov, 2011]. the seawater andaccountsfor 0,7%ofits shelfoccupies16% of m, thenorth-western straights.Kerch Limited by theisobathof200 water exchange through theBosporusand Danube,rivers: theRiver Dnepr, theRiver and by freshwater runoffofthemajorEuropean structure oftheBlackSeaismainlydetermined respectively. and 400km, Hydrological km with thezonal lengthof1000 andmeridional ellipticalbasin(Fig. semi-closed (~2 km) 2) shelf oftheBlackSea. The BlackSeaisadeep dimensional fieldsofPCBsinthenorth-western et. al., 2012]wasusedto calculate thethree- Ivanov, A mathematicalmodel[Lyubartseva, approach. multi-disciplinary above-described ofthe possible onlywithintheframework decisions to minimize environmental is risks ofmanagement aimed atscientificsupport consequences ofaccidentalreleases ofPCBs environmentstate ofthemarine andthe of advancedsystems for forecasting the also considered inthemodel. Development PCBsandsedimentis between Interaction organic ofPCBs. matter) asanaturalsorbent ofdead (suspendedfraction particles detritus ofPCBson anddesorption adsorption diffusionwith flow fieldsandturbulent of thedynamicsthree-dimensional study isacomprehensive consideration fields intheBlackSea. The specificsofour spatial andtemporal evolution ofthePCB model thatadequately reproduces the therefar hasnotbeenacomprehensive growing volume of field measurements so studiesandasteadily number oflaboratory tracers. large Despiteafairly conservative DESCRIPTION OF THE MODEL 227.06.2013 14:24:05 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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3 7 Fig. 2. The Black Sea. The star indicates the PCBs spill point used in the simulation. simulation. the in used point spill PCBs the indicates star The Sea. Black The 2. Fig. Fig. 3. Schematic representation of the modeled processes modeled the of representation Schematic 3. Fig. The obtained Hovmoller diagrams relate to Station A Station to relate diagrams Hovmoller obtained The 227.06.2013 14:24:05 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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2 37 ENVIRONMENT 4 : 0 5 ggi213.indd 38 i 2 1 3 . i n d d
3 38 ENVIRONMENT 8 component of velocity andforcomponent ofvelocity adhesionfor conditionfor thenormal impermeability On thebottom andsolidsidewalls, the Demyshev, [Knysh, algorithm et.al., 2002]. and were assimilated according to the obtained through measurements actual evaporation [Belokopytov, 2004]were Daily fluxes ofheat,precipitation, and pressure in6-hrsincrements. distribution, from1988–1998 dataderived thesurface wasobtainedbyaveragingdata array the stress ofwindwerefriction assigned. The dailyfieldsoftangential On thesurface, ofseawater.incompressibility Boussinesq approximation, hydrostatics, and motion andtransfer ofheatandsaltinthe on afullsetofnonlinearequations constantly improved. The modelisbased the momentofitscreation, ithasbeing operational forecasts of theBlackSea;from used to solve problems associated with Hydrophysical oftheNASandis Institute model wasdeveloped intheMarine model [Demyshev, Korotaev, 1992]. This z-coordinatedimensional numerical The hydrodynamic blockutilizes athree- calculated. PCBs intheupperlayer ofsedimentsare andtheconcentrationof particles, detritus the solution,concentrationofPCBson wheretransfer PCBconcentrationin block, aredetritus theinputparameters ofthePCBs temperature, salinity, andconcentrationsof of currents,dimensional fieldsofvelocity transfer andtransformation block. The three- calculated. These dataare usedinthedetritus temperature, ofseaare andsalinity fieldsofcurrents,dimensional velocity the hydrodynamicblocks. three- In block, The mathematicalmodelconsistsofthree different size class. hydrolysis, to a andtransitionoftheparticles effect ofitsmicrobiological degradation, istheresultingdecomposition ofdetritus of sedimentationanderosion flows. The isregulatedPCBs ondetritus bythebalance The bottom and exchange detritus between the upperlayer place. ofthesedimentstakes all state variables. infinitesimal background concentrationsof rivers. The initial conditionsassumethe into the sea from the imitating theirentry boundaries, the PCBsflowwasassumed, flow wasassigned. Onthelateral liquid-solid lateral boundaries, theconditionofPCBs sedimentation anderosion. Onthesolid their considering contaminated particles component plustheexchange ofthePCB- assumed: diffusionexchange ofthesoluble the balanceconditionsofexchange were PCBs flowwasassumed. Onthebottom, the absenceof 1999]. Onthesurface, accounted for according to [Margvelashvili, were particles PCBs deposited ondetritus of processes anddesorption ofadsorption sediments [Ivanov, Bagaiev, et.al. 2012]. The in detritus, andintheupperlayer of the PCBsconcentrationinsolution, discribe that –diffusionreactiontype advection equationsofthe the three-dimensional The PCBstransfer blockwasbasedon flows wasassumed. lateral boundaries, theabsenceofdetritus were assigned [Ivanov, Fomin, 2008].Onthe that dependonthebottom shearstress the conditionsofsedimentationanderosion et.al.,Lyubartseva 1999].Onthebottom, of phytoplankton wasassumed[Ivanov, formedof detritus from decomposition thenaturalflow detritus. Onthesurface, sedimentation anddecompositionof into account gravitationalThe modeltakes [Bagaiev,diffusion –reaction type 2010]. the differential – equationoftheadvection concentrationweredetritus calculated by fieldsof dimensional non-stationary thethree- transfer thedetritus block, In [Pacanowski, Philander, 1981]. closure turbulent was usedasthevertical operators.as biharmonic Parameterization horizontal diffusionwereturbulent specified exchangeThe turbulent ofpulseand heat, andsaltwere setfor theoutflow. the inflowwasassigned; thefluxes ofpulse, conditionat liquid boundary, theDirichlet heat andsaltflowswere assumed. Atthe the tangentialcomponent;absenceof 227.06.2013 14:24:06 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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3 contamination ofPCBsinthewater column. intheformation ofsecondary disturbance to examinesediment and itisnecessary relatively atthebottom, highflowvelocity maximal intensity. Besides, thisseasonhasa willreach ofPCBsondetritus its desorption conditions, theprocess and ofadsorption thatinthese phytoplankton. wasexpected It following thebloomingofcold-resistant hashighinfluxofdetritus thisperiod during shelfoftheBlackSea The northwestern spring.the DanubeSt.George inearly Girlie ofPCBsfrom discharge of4kg emergency formed asaresult ofaninstantaneous fieldsofPCBs, the three-dimensional The developed modelwasusedto calculate step. horizons witha5-minutedistributed time with aresolution of5 on auniform horizontal grid [Lebedev, 1964] equationswereModel integrated numerically 9 OF PCBS FROM THE DANUBE MOUTH OF A POTENTIAL ACCIDENTAL SPILL SCENARIO MODELING THE currents (cm/s) at a depth of 3 m in 10 3min of days (cm/s) adepth at currents Fig. 4. Spatial distribution of horizontal The results of simulation of results The after the accident. accident. the after
× 5 km, by45unevenly main current of theBlackSea. becauseitcomesclosetoand active the sediment flowsandisthe most dynamic the directinfluenceofDanube origin to [Panin, Jipa,1998],this area isunder Accordingare found nearCapeKaliakra. also release detachment, themduring PCBs, whichnotonlyadsorb type, but 2003]. The sedimentsofthetransporting Gustaffson,accumulating PCB[Jonsson, or ofsedimentseithertransporting types was dominated bytheclassification of thesedimentsshowed thatthearea concentration fieldsintheupperlayer Analysis ofthedynamicsPCBs were somewhatdissolvingbydiffusion. (Bulgaria). ofthefieldsThe boundaries the frontal zone reached CapeKaliakra (Romania). of vanguardThe southern part diluted pollutionfieldsreached Constanta theaccident(Fig.after 5), 10days sea waslimited to a75misobath.In andPCBsintheopen incidence ofdetritus boundary. Calculationshave shownthatthe sediment detachmentatthewater-sediment formed lensesinthebottom layers due to andPCBsondetritus on detritus. Detritus there, dissolved PCBswere also adsorbed At a30mdepth,thefieldmoved slower; to theareacarried of Tulcea (Romania). fieldsatthedepthof3mwereand detritus On the3rd day theaccident,PCB after influence ofrivers. Units)dueto(Practical thefreshening Salinity frontal zo salinity, there surface formed adistinct water.local areas ofsinking thefieldof In with apronounced downwelling andmany fieldhadacomplexstructure velocity vertical decreased onapproaching theshore. The speedof20cm/s. average The flowvelocity computational domain(Fig. hadthe 4).It southwestern direction,formed inthe the alongshore inthe current, extending season, withspeedsofupto 10–15m/s, for windstypical thisnortheastern and Due to theprevalence ofthenorth interval. wassolved usinga20-day transport The dynamicproblem ofthePCBsfield ne with a gradient of 1 PSU/10 km ne withagradientof1PSU/10km the considerably 227.06.2013 14:24:06 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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4 40 ENVIRONMENT 0 of pollutionreaches 14pg/l (Fig. 6( inthecenter concentration ofPCBsindetritus begins. onsettlingdetritus adsorption The is located atadepth of26m. The intensive maximal c the Stationin4days theaccident. after The center ofthedissolved PCBsfieldreaches diagrams (Fig. 6).Fig. 6( A wasinvestigated withtheHovmoller suspended anddissolved matter atStation profiles ofThe evolution ofthevertical Fig. 5. Spatial distributions of the concentration of PCBs in solution (upper panels); panels); (upper solution in PCBs of concentration the of distributions 5.Spatial Fig. oncentration ofmore than30 pg/l at a depth of 3 m (left) and 30 m (right) in 10 days after the accident. accident. the 10 in after 30m(right) days and 3m(left) of adepth at PCBs on detritus (middle panels); detritus (lower panels) A ) showsthatthe The results of simulation of results The B )). The )). The water detritus became saturated with PCBs becamesaturatedwater withPCBs detritus to Remaining in thePCBaccumulation type. evident thatthesedimentsatStation Abelong is of PCBsinthesedimentswas maximal. It 4days theaccident,accumulation after In where itwasgradually buildingup(Fig. 6 ( onthebottom, wassettlingquickly detritus C/l atthesamedepth(Fig. 6( at0,01mg peaked concentration ofdetritus for ecosystems.which istypical marine The ispatchy ofdetritus distribution (Fig. 6( C )). Contaminated )). Contaminated 227.06.2013 14:24:06 7 . 0 C E 6 . )). )). )), )), 2 0 1 3
1 4 : 2 4 : 0 6 ggi213.indd 41 i 2 1 3 . i n d d
4 the redistribution ofthePCBs that The budgetofPCBs(Fig. 7)illustrates contaminated detritus. thanthePCB- at thisStation4days earlier shown thatthedissolved PCBsdisappeared in thewater column. The calculationshave is causedbyunevenofdetritus distribution depth of26m. The resulting dipoleasymmetry value appearsasapronounced dipoleata (negative values).Changeinthe sign ofthis (positiveof adsorption values)anddesorption (Fig. 6[ process took place. ofdesorption The chart and, in6days theaccident,reverse after 1 Fig. 6. The Hovmoller diagrams for Station A. (A) concentration of the PCBs in solution; solution; in PCBs the of (A)concentration A. Station for diagrams Hovmoller The 6. Fig. D (B) of the PCBs on detritus; (C) detritus concentration; (D) adsorption/desorption rate; rate; (D) adsorption/desorption concentration; detritus (C) detritus; on PCBs the (B) of ]) shows the distribution of the rate oftherate ]) showsthedistribution (E) the PCB concentration in the top layer of sediments. The results of simulation of results The sediments. of layer top the in concentration PCB (E) the binding ofPCBsinsediments. andwhich speedsupwater purification PCB,sorbent form anatural buffer system, ofdetritus, asanatural particles the sinking canbeconcluded that18% ofthePCBs. It theaccident,sedimentsboundedafter hasbeendemonstrated that16daysIt accumulation ofthePCBsonbottom. theaccident. after There wasagradual dissolved began2days PCBs. Desorption to a20%reductioninthemassof days theaccident,whichledtwo after Adsorption thefirst dominated during the entire computationaldomain. have entered theaccidentwithin after 227.06.2013 14:24:06 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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4 42 ENVIRONMENT 2 the PCBsfluxes were calculated intheclosed the fieldsofPCBs, of thethree-dimensional physical mechanismsto thedevelopment To ofdifferent estimate thecontribution Fig. 8. The total PCB fluxes through through fluxes PCB total The 8. Fig. the finite domain shown in Fig. 2. 2. Fig. in shown domain finite the Fig. 7. The PCB budget on the Black Sea northwestern shelf. The results of simulation of results The shelf. northwestern Sea Black the on 7.Fig. budget PCB The The results of simulation of results The extremes: 5,0 extremes: had thef accident. flows anddesorption The adsorption maximum of0,13g/sonthe6thday the after dominated, withits the western boundary flows,Among theadvection the flow thr “transfer” from thedissolved form to detritus. For thepositive flow adsorption, influx, whilethenegative ones–to theefflux. for anddiffusioncorrespond advection to the dominate inthisarea (Fig. 8). The positive values ofphysical desorption andchemicalfluxes andadsorption- transport that advection × a rectangulararea withdimensionsof100km 45,1°N and29,2°–30,1°E,whichcorresponds to region boundedby44,2°– three-dimensional Lyubartseva, 2011].PhysicalLyubartseva, and chemical andofPCBsonit[Bagaiev, sorbent active forreaction type theconcentrationsof the equationsofadvection-diffusion- were modifiedandsupplemented with For this, the master equations ofthemodel accidental release. in combatingtheadverse effects of an effectiveness sorbents oftheuseactive environment. The model canevaluate the reduce dispersionofPCBsinthemarine measuresin integrated to post-emergency ofPCBsmay beused capacity sorption High mechanism inthesystem. g/s) diffusion(~10 horizontal turbulent and –1.5 TO CONTROL THE PCBS SPREAD OF AN SORBENT ACTIVE APPLIED EVALUATION OF EFFICIENCY 75 km (Fig. 75km 2). The calculationshave shown appeared to be the weakest transport appeared to transport betheweakest ollowing characteristics ofthelocal ollowing characteristics × 10 × –2 10 g/son –2 g/sonthe6thday the 10thday. The means the –18 –10 ough ough 227.06.2013 14:24:06 7 . 0 –13 –13 6 . 2 0 1 3
1 4 : 2 4 : 0 6 ggi213.indd 43 i 2 1 3 . i n d d
4 was assumedto be10 inthemodelrate ofdetritus with PCBs. The sedimentation currents before itgetssaturated from thefieldbystrong surface too low, isremoved thesorbent therate ofsedimentationis If PCBs are onitssurface. adsorbed faster thanthespeedatwhich settles onthebottom much the rate istoo high,thesorbent If important. wasvery sorbent sedimentaiton oftheartificial that therate ofgravitational The calculationshave shown movement (Fig. 9). to themeanvector ofthefield boxes located perpendicular 12 surface weredetritus instantaneouslydropped into threefoldcapacity exceeding thatofnatural withthesorption tons sorbent oftheactive consequences oftheaccident,in5hours, 120 PCBs fieldtrajectory. To minimize negative of thedeveloped modelforecasts the section. The calculationundertheframework release ofPCBs, intheprevious asdescribed anaccidental detects service monitoring in thefollowing scenario. Ahypothetical wasrealized experiment A numerical the seawaschosen. in optimal strategy ofplacingthesorbent Usingtest-calculations, aclosetosorbent. assigned Site, [Delle 2001] for theactive closeto realcharacteristics conditionswere active sorbent was5 sorbent active the rate ofsedimentationthe color indicates the line of the active color indicates thelineofactive frame, the upperright the In with theconcentrationof1pg/l. is delineated bythegreen contour PCBs. sorbent The field of theactive pg/l concentrationofdissolved delineated byacontour ofa3,10 fields, inviolet-blue colors, were with itsapplication(right). The PCB and (left) 3 mwithoutthesorbent filed ofdissolved PCBsatadepth of Fig. 9showstheevolution ofthe 3 • 10 –3 –3 cm/s; cm/s. black Fig. 9. The PCB-spill evolution at a depth of 3 m, without without 3m, of adepth at evolution PCB-spill 9. The Fig. (left panel) and with (right panel) the active sorbent. sorbent. active the panel) (right with and panel) (left The PCB concentration is in blue; the active sorbent sorbent active the blue; in is concentration PCB The concentration is in green. The results of simulation of results The green. in is concentration controlled bythePCBsbudget(Fig. 10).By was sorbent oftheactive The efficiency zone. accumulating intheapexarea ofthecoastal away intheopenseaandotheronewas ofitwascarried concentration field. Onepart there sorbent wasadisruptionoftheactive of thealongshore the6thday, current. By water layer dueto flow thedynamicallyactive wasdeforming sorbent inthesurface active the accident. The fieldofconcentrationthe the framescorresponding to the8thday after identical. Subtledifferences canbeseenin werewithout andwiththesorbent practically PCBs filed, ofthePCBs becausethedistribution fieldwasdrawn onthetopthe sorbent ofthe sorbent “injection.” offrames, series Ontheright 227.06.2013 14:24:06 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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4 44 ENVIRONMENT 4 the 5 faster thanthetop layer ofsediment.By accumulated PCBsmuch sorbent active bydetritus. However,PCBs adsorbed the was significantly lower thanthatofthe sorbent bytheactive the PCBsadsorbed bythesediment. adsorbed The massof 4%ofthePCBswas sorbent; by theactive and only6%ofthePCBswasadsorbed particles ondetritus of PCBswasadsorbed days, ismore sorbent efficientin theactive showed that,ontimescalesexceeding 15 However, experiments the numerical is about95%. applicationwith andwithoutthesorbent of theareas ofthecontaminated bottom useless.sea, i.e., itispractically The ratio faraway at iscarried sorbent of theactive column. Approximately halfofthemass inthewaterthe homogeneousdistribution muchbetter works duetoPCBs sorbent asanatural Detritus zone sorption. ofactive center ofthePCBscontaminationin retaining timeofthebecause ofatoo short inthewater columnwasineffectivesorbent may bestated oftheactive thatthework general, bythesediments. itadsorbed In wasequalto themassofPCBs particles sorbent bytheactive the PCBsadsorbed the 5 th th Fig. 10. The PCBs budget in the scenario with the active sorbent. The simulation results simulation The sorbent. active the with scenario the in budget PCBs 10. The Fig. day theaccident,massof after day theaccident,about30% after countermeasures. the contaminationonbottom, and plan of PCBsinsolutionandon detritus, map field fields, visualize thethree-dimensional ofcontamination calculate thetrajectory based system willallowanend-userto thefuture,compiled. In thisknowledge- isbeing mixtures and PCB-containing chemical parameters ofdifferent congeners of thedischarge. Adatabaseofphysical- contamination influx,andthecoordinates time ofanaccident,itsduration,therate of (Fig. 11)includesinputfieldsfor thedate and developed. Auser-friendly system interface isbeing module witharemote web interface the model pr For basedon efficient decision-making column. of the water potential re-contamination frames ofaboutamonthandwould block time- contaminantsduring adsorb actively would, capacity, dueto itshighabsorptions of theapexnearshore areas where it directly into theupperlayer ofsediments shouldbeintroducedthat thesorbent meanssediments compared to detritus. It the PCBcontainmentintop layer ofthe APPLICATION DEVELOPMENT OF THE END-USER esented above, anapplication 227.06.2013 14:24:06 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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4 20% of the mass of PCBs was adsorbed on 20% ofthemassPCBswas adsorbed thefirst2days theaccident, after During were flow. comparable withtheadvection flowsondetritus anddesorption adsorption current wasthe dominating mechanism. The ofPCBsbythenearshore jet transport hasbeenconducted. Delta The advection accidental discharge intheDanubeRiver apotentialthe contaminationfieldsafter 2. of The assessment for period a20-day and(3)PCBtransport. sorbent, transformation asanaturalPBC ofdetritus and (1) thermo-hydrodynamic, (2)transport sediments. The modelcombined three units: water –bottom processes attheboundary into accountexchangeThe modeltakes ondetritus. anddesorption of adsorption well asphysical andchemicalprocesses diffusion,as andturbulent advection mechanisms, considers physical transport dynamics hasbeendeveloped; themodel modelofthePCBs 1. A3Dinterdisciplinary 5 CONCLUSIONS Fig. 11. A web interface for end-users for 11.Fig. interface Aweb environmental protection activities. bottom contamination,andplanning fields insolutionandondetritus, mapping contamination fields, visualizingthePCBs ofPCB- allow estimatingthetrajectory thefuture,of development. In itwould isintheprocessa remote web interface the model, anapplicationmodulewith 4. To managementdecisions using support time scalesoftheorder ofmonths. of theapexareas where affectively itworks on feasible to useitinthetop layer ofthesediments is seaareadynamically active is inefficient. It into thewater sorbent active columnofthis hasbeendemonstrated thatplacingthe It ofan accident. mitigating negative impacts for sorbent oftheuseanactive efficiency The modelallowed assessmentofthe 3. sediments. of water andbindingofPCBsbybottom buffer system thatspeedsupthepurification detritus, indicatingtheexistence ofanatural 227.06.2013 14:24:06 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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4 46 ENVIRONMENT 6 Jonsson,A.,Gustaffson, G.et.al. (2003)AglobalaccountingofPCBsinthecontinental 16. ofPCBs insedimentfrom R.(2000)Distribution different Jonsson,A.andCarman, bottom 15. Ivanov, V.A., S.P. Lyubartseva, et.al. theBlackSeashelfecosystem ofthe (1999)Modeling 14. Ivanov, V.A. andFomin, V.V. modelingof dynamicprocesses13. (2008)Mathematical inthe Ivanov, V.A. andBelokopytov, V.N.12. (2011)Oceanography oftheBlackSea,MHINANU, Ivanov, V.A., Bagaiev, A.V. et.al. (2012) modelofpolychlorinated biphe- Three-dimensional 11. Fillmann, G.,Readman,J. etal. (2002)Persistent organochlorine residues insediments 10. Dove, B. A.andHill, (2008)Update information ofPCBmonitoring intheGreat Lakes, 9. Dioxins andHealth(1994)(Ed. Schecter, A.), N.Y., Plenum Press. 8. Demyshev, S.G.andKorotaev, energy-balanced (1992)Numerical modelof G.K. 7. Site, Delle A.(2001) Factors oforganic affecting sorption compoundsinnaturalsorbent/ 6. and Burns, K. Villeneuve, J.-P. (1983)Biogeochemicalprocesses affecting thedistribution 5. Belokopytov, V.N. (2004) andhydrologic-and-acousticThermohaline structureoftheBlack 4. S.(2004)Persistent G.andAriman, organochlorine Bakan, residues insedimentsalongthe 3. Bagaiev, A.V. S.P. andLyubartseva, effi- 2. sorbent estimationoftheactive (2011)Model Bagaiev, A.V. for parameterization (2010)Improvement ofthedetritus ecological model- 1. REFERENCES shelf sediments, Environ. Sci. Tech., 37,245–255. Archipelago, andwater depths inStockholm types BalticSea,AMBIO, 29,277–281. zone, HydrophysicalDanube Mouth Journal, Marine No. 6,15–29,(inRussian). sea–land zone, MHINANU, Sevastopol, (inRussian). Sevastopol, (inRussian). shelf, ontheBlackSeanorth-western NANU,nyl Dopovidi transport 4,94–99,(inRussian). from BlackSea,Mar. Pol. Bul., bns/reports/stakejun2008/PCB/PCBs_BTS_08.pdf Water BTS–PCBworkgroup, andsurveillance. monitoring http://www.epa.gov/ quality (in Russian). results ofthecalibrationsimulations intheAtlanticOcean baroclinic currents withuneven bottom ontheCgrid. modelsandthe Numerical Ref. Data,30,187–425. water coefficientsfor systems andsorption pollutants. selected Areview, J. Phys. Chem. Cosmochimica 47,995–1006. Acta, hydrocarbon residues Geochimicaet transport inthecoastalMediterranean, and vertical sea water, Candidate’s inGeography, Dissertation MHINANU, Sevastopol, (inRussian). coast ofmid-BlackSearegion of Turkey, Mar. Pol. Bul., 48,1031–1039. Russian). 25 (2),325–336,(In Ecological safety ofcoastalandshelfzones andcomprehensive useofshelfresources, theaccidentspillofpolychlorinated biphenyls during zone, intheDanubeMouth ciency hensive useofshelfresources, 22,274–280,(inRussian). zone,ing theDanubeMouth Ecological safety ofcoastalandshelfzones andcompre-
44, 122–133. , INM RAS,Moscow, 227.06.2013 14:24:06 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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4 26. Zherko, N.V., Zherko, Egorov, V.N. et.al. (2000)Organochlorine compoundsinthenorth-western 26. Tanabe, S.,Madhusree, B. etal., (1997)Persistent organochlorine residues por- inharbour 25. Panin, N.andJipa,D. withthe (1998)Danuberiversedimentinputanditsinteraction 24. hydrocarbons I.G.(1994)Chlorinated Orlova, intheBlackSeaecosystem. 22. Margvelashvili, N.Yu. modelingthethree (1999)Mathematical dimensionalfieldsofra- 21. Maldonado, C.,Bayona, M.et.al. (1999)Sources, andwater columnprocesses distribution, 20. S.P., Lyubartseva, Ivanov, V.A.19. et.al. modelofpoly- (2012) numerical Three-dimensional 2. Pacanowski, R.C.andPhilander, S.G.H.(1981) Parametrization mixinginnumeri- ofvertical 23. Lebedev, V.I. (1964)Differenceexpansions, fundamentaldiffer- analoguesoforthogonal 18. Knysh, V.V., Demyshev, S.G.et.al. (2002)Aprocedure ofreconstructiontheclimatic 17. 7 part oftheBlackSea,Ecol. Mor.,part No. 51,88–90,(inRussian). poise ( 23–35. 3, projects, BlackSea:results andEROS-21 GeoEcoMarina, ofEROS-2000 north-western NANU, Sevastopol, (inRussian). andinlandbasins,dionuclides inestuaries Candidate’s inGeophysics, MHI Dissertation Envir. Sci. Tech. aromaticof aliphaticandpolycyclic hydrocarbons BlackSeawater, inthenorthwestern chlorobiphenyls dynamicsintheBlackSea,Rus. J. Num. Anal. Mod., 27,53–68. Math. cal modelsofthetropical ocean,J. Phys. Oceanogr the BlackSeaecosystem, IREN-POLYGRAPH, (inRussian). Odessa, Fiz., Mat. Vych. Mat. valueproblems ofmathematicalphysics,ential operators, andbasicinitialboundary Zh. model, Phys. Oceanogr., 12,88–103. seasonal circulation intheBlackSeabasedonassimilationofhydrological datainthe Phocoena phocoena , 33,2693–2702.
4, 449–465,(inRussian). Vitaliy A.Ivanov recent ofthemis “Oceanography oftheBlackSea” (2011). the most scientific publicationsincluding booksandtextbooks; resources.marine ofover 350 Heistheauthorandco-author processes, ecologyoftheenvironment, anddevelopment of of theseashelfwithfocus onseacurrents, long-wave includeresearch activities inhydrophysics ofMHI.His Department Engineering Bureau ofMHI,andHead ofShelfHydrophysics State University,Moscow Designing & Director ofInstrument Research Director oftheSevastopol BranchoftheLomonosov Hydrophysical (MHI)(Sevastopol,the Marine Institute Ukraine), of theNationalAcademy HeisDirector of ofSciencesUkraine. ) from theBlackSea,Mar. Pol. Bul., , Dr. Sc., Professor (hydrophysics), isAcademician ., 11,1442–1451.
34, 338–347.
Investigation of 227.06.2013 14:24:06 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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4 48 ENVIRONMENT 8 model ofpolychlorobiphenyls dynamicsintheВlасkSea(2012,withco-authors). Svitlana P. Lyubartseva Sergey G.Demyshev Andrii V. Bagaiev (2011, withco-authors) ecological state onthebasisofsatellite remotely senseddata (2010, with Yu.N. Sea Estimation of changeintheAzov Ryabtsev); the oilpollutioninKerchStrait Modeling (2008, withco-authors); of methaneandmechanismsitstransfer intheBlackSea Recently publishedpapers:Investigation of thebiogeochemistry tracersinthesea. and transformation ofthenon-conservative research isfocused ondevelopment ofthemodelstransport D. Hydrophysical onGeophysics Institute. atMarine Hercurrent of theLomonosov State andreceived University Moscow herPh. numerical float data(2011,withco-authors); Three-dimensional results oftheBlackSeahydrophysical modelingfieldswithARGO (2011,withS.G.Demyshev);parameterization ofthe Comparison in theBlackSeawithhelpofMellor–Yamada 2,5 modelingoftheclimaticcirculationpublished papers:Numerical analysisanddevelopment. Recently sea; object-oriented inthe simulationofpollution andsedimenttransport numerical current research interests are: computationalfluiddynamics; Hydrophysical thesis onGeophysics Institute. atMarine His Lomonosov State andhasprepared University Moscow hisPh. D. andCybernetics oftheSevastopolMathematics Branchof author ofover 170scientificpublications. on inPhysics”. Methods “Numerical Heistheauthorandco- State University) (theBlackSeaBranchofMoscow Department modelling. theyears Demyshev Over lectures atthePhysics with thefocus onocean andseacurrents mathematical scientificinterestsHis cover area ofcomputationalgeophysics graduated from theFaculty ofComputational , Dr. Sc., Principal Research ScientistatMHI. graduated from thePhysics Department 227.06.2013 14:24:07 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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4 1 P.O. [email protected] e-mail: Box 55,N-1332Øster@ås, Norway; Kosygin str.19, 119991,Moscow, [email protected], Russia;e-mail: Chemical Combinelocated (KMCC) in the and Mining operation oftheKrasnoyarsk from the period 1958to 1992 anIn floodplain, Yenisey River, MCC. Krasnoyarsk both sites atthedepthof20–50cm. contamination were registered insoilsof Sea. when itreached the Kara Traces ofthat intensive inthe60-ies ofthepastcentury radionuclide contaminationwasmost downtheriver. far as2000km Artificial one wasstudiedintheremote zone as to 20downstream thedischarge, thesecond zone from theimpact characterized 16km Yenisey riverfloodplain. The firstsegment landscapesegmentswithin two ofthe ofradionuclidedistribution and thecharacter responsible for radionuclidedifferentiation studiesrevealedand radiometric factors dozen timeslower. Performed landscape contamination ofthe Yenisey river became down thedirect-flow reactors theradioactive landscapes ofthe Yenisey river. shutting After to 1992hasbeenstudiedinfloodplain fromZheleznogorsk) intheperiod 1958 and Chemical Combine (KMCC,Mining radionuclides discharged bytheKrasnoyarsk Kosygin str.19, 119991,Moscow, [email protected], Russia;e-mail: 3 2 * Vitaly G.Linnik 9 INTRODUCTION KEY WORDS: ABSTRACT. LANDSCAPE AND SURVEY RADIOMETRIC THE YENISEY FLOODPLAIN BASED ON RADIONUCLIDE CONTAMINATION OF A HISTORICAL OUTLINE OF Corresponding author Senior scientist, Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority; GriniNaeringspark13, Protection Radiation Authority; scientist,Norwegian Senior scientist, Senior andAnalyticalChemistry; Vernadsky ofGeochemistry Institute Leading scientist, Vernadsky Institute of Geochemistry and Analytical Chemistry; Leading scientist, andAnalyticalChemistry; Vernadsky ofGeochemistry Institute Distribution oftechnogenic Distribution radionuclides, landscape, 1* , ElenaM.Korobova 2 , JustinE. Brown mainly with floodplain sedimentsofthe Yenisey river contamination ofthewater andbottom and ledto radionuclide ofKrasnoyarsk the city downstream town ofZheleznogorsk40km 47 kBq/m 34 kBq/m the discharge equaledto 230kBq/m levels of 2008]. floodplain soils[Vakulovsky, The radionuclide contaminationofthe of the Yenisey deltarevealed considerable atthebeginning Dudinka KMCC to port the large riversegment stretching from bySPAstudies performed “Typhoon” within sediments ofthe Yenisey mouth. The reactor origin ( time theydiscovered radioisotopes ofthe et.al., 2008]. Then for[Vakulovsky thefirst floodplain date backto theyear of1972 water, bottom sedimentsand thecoastal analysis ofradi of the Yenisey river whichincludedthe The systematic radioecological studies situation improved. dropped dozen timesandradioecological radionuclide discharge to the Yenisey river direct-flow reactors in1992theamountof al., shuttingdownofthetwo 1995].After et. elements[Vakulovsky of radioactive long distancesdownstream thedischarge 137 2 and19kBq/m 2 , and 409 km downstream –, and409km Cs and 137 65 3 onuclide contaminationof Cs, Zn и 60 60 Co 48 km downstream Co 48km Co, 137 2 Cs) inthebottom 152 correspondingly. Eu, 154 Eu over 2 and 227.06.2013 14:24:07 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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5 50 ENVIRONMENT 0 the contaminationby away fromAs faras1655km thedischarge beginning of70-iesthegloballevel of 0,37 kBq/m framework oftheprogramframework onmapping et.al.,weapon plutonium 2000].In [Izrael of Russiainareas ofthe plants producing for theAtlasofradionuclidecontamination onasetofmaps works preliminary during of the Yenisey floodplainwasconstructed The mapofradionuclidecontamination under[Linniket.al.,objects 2001]. Sea wasamongthe discharge to theKara itslowerdown to reaches practically and Yenisey from floodplainsection theKMCC of thenuclear-fuel operatingplants. The of theenvironment inareas oflocation information onradionuclidecontamination alltheavailable(GIS) covering sources of organization as ageo-informaitonsystem wasthedata The maingoaloftheseprojects launchedbyGreenthe projects Cross Russia. ofthesedatawasdoneintheframe part et.al., 2004].Areview ofsome Sukhorukov et. al., 1993;Nosov, 1996;Linniket.al., 2000; 1994; 1999; et.al.,Vakulovski 1995;Nosov [Kuznetsov et.al., 90-ies ofthelastcentury based onfieldsamplingwaspublishedin situation inthe Yenisey river food plain The fistscopeofdataonradioecological in the Yenisey basin. oftechnogenic radionuclides of distribution Since thattimethere beganmassive studies of the Yenisey floodplainbecame available. and theindependentradioecological studies the area oftheformer USSRwere declassified the dataonradionuclidecontaminationof accident theChernobyl of 90-ieswhenafter untilthebeginning70-ies were unknown expeditions organized bySPA “Typhoon” in group ofspecialists. The results ofthefurther onlyto anarrow at thattimeandknown However thesestudieswere secret kept was 2,5kBq/m dropped downto 21kBq/m sharply AND METHODS STUDIED AREA, MATERIALS 2 . Oneshouldnote thatatthe 2 [Kvasnikova et.al., 2000]. [Kvasnikova 137 Cs and 2 137 and 60 Co Cs peculiarities of distribution of ofdistribution peculiarities river sedimentsandto reveal landscape and vegetation cover, composition ofthe the landscapestructure, relief, thesoil wastoThe maingoalofthework analyze both thepublishedandarchival materials. on radionuclidecontaminationincluded State University.with theMoscow The data Russian Academy ofSciencesincooperation organized bythe ofthe Institute Vernadsky studies intheupperdeltaof Yenisey were the years of2000,and2001–2002,field ESTABLISH in (thedistantzone) performed zone and STREAM ofKMCC) (nearimpact COPERNICUS international two projects:the by supported fieldwork obtained during The presented isbasedonmaterials work projects includingcomplexexpeditions. andregional ofinternational frame ofseries in the Yenisey in90-ies basinstarted The secondstageofradioecological studies al., 2000]. et. [Kvasnikova from Dudinka KMCC to port 137 that revealed thelongestinFSUbeltof Yenisey outin1993 floodplainwascarried ofthe survey contamination anair-gamma the areas withtechnogenic radionuclide of evaluationtechnogenic radionuclide dip detector wasused. The main principles soils infieldconditionsaradiometer with measure infloodplain depthdistribution the helpofcollimated detector CORAD. To measurements with gamma-spectrometry the radioecological studiesincludedfield lithology. thenearKMCC zone In impact applied withdueregard to riversediment standard soilsamplinginincrements was insoilprofilesradionuclide distribution To and contamination density determine fallout. data onglobaltechnogenic radionuclide the adjacentwatersheds were usedfor local to study.object Plots located or onterraces level floodplainoftheriver wasthefirst The mostcontaminated low-andmedium- 152,154 Cs contaminationstretching for 2000km Eu in the impact area oftheKMCC.Eu intheimpact 137 Cs, 227.06.2013 14:24:07 60 7 . 0 Co, 6 . 2 0 1 3
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5 in thelower reaches upto 18395m continuesto increaseTunguska). It 4518 m while thatoftheAngarariveramountsto 10 kBq/m in caseofcontaminationlevel exceeding this approach appeared to beapplicable the mostrepresentative plots. However, optimize thesamplingmodeand to select measurements enabledtoRadiometric published in[Linniket.al., 2005;2006]. investigation ofthe Yenisey floodplainwere device appliedto landscape-radiation concentration withthehelpofCORAD to 2864m annual discharge ofthe Yenisey equals River –theAngaraRiver. tributary right The mean increases theriverconfluencewithits after periods. The Yenisey water flowconsiderably and floodplainsoilsinthehighwater masses contaminatingbottom sediments migrateradionuclides actively withwater upon itshydrological regime. The discharged with the Yenisey waters dependingeneral andconcentration transport Radionuclide contamination regime ofradionuclide inthe period Peculiarities ofthe Yenisey hydrological 2002, 2007,2009]. etal,radionuclide deposition[Korobova the suggested conditionsoftechnogenic and on landscapegeochemicalstructure lower Yenisey area thesamplingwasbased considerablyincreaseddetection andinthe 10769 m Here theannual Yenisey discharge reaches Tunguska inthemiddlereaches of Yenisey. confluence withtheriverofPodkamennaya the mainstream the placeafter water takes confluence. significant dilutionof The next waters considerablyreduces the after radionuclides inthecontaminated Yenisey 2006]. As aresult theconcentrationof concentration inriverwater. dilutions considerablylessen radionuclide Such (hydrological Igarka). stationatport 1 RESULTS 3 3 /s [LammersandShiklomanov, 2 /s (gaugestationPodkamennaya 3 . Atthelower level theerror of /s (hydrological stationBazaikha), 3 /s 137 the coastalzones: the meanandmaximum contamination andsomedifference between demonstrate thescaleof gamma survey bank zones (Fig. 1). The results ofthisair- andleft alongbothitsright to Dudinka longstretching fromkm Zheleznogorsk 1760 contamination ofitsfloodplainsection basin in1993hasrecorded radionuclide ofthe survey The air-gamma Yenisey Yenisey contamination floodplain studies concerning KMCC impact on the Analysis ofthe results ofsome previous lower Yeniseysections. deposition intheupper-middle andthe synchronizednot expect radionuclide upstream stations. Therefore oneshould register highwater in Yenisey the unlike stationdidnot in August 1988theIgarka indicatedtwo gaugestations. For example, do notcoincidewiththoseregistered atthe lower Yenisey reaches highwater periods the of theriverfloodplainlandscapes. In ondifferentradionuclide distribution levels resulted oftechnogenic insimilarcharacter have could (Podkamennaya Tunguska). This also butinitsmiddlepart (Bazaikha) section be followed notonlyintheupper Yenisey high water levels of1972and1988could leveled dueto However itstributaries. the water abundanceinthemiddle Yenisey was HPPonthemainstream the Krasnoyarsk the lower floodplainareas. The influenceof contaminated byradionuclidescontinuedin However,shortened. depositionofsediments ofthemiddlefloodplainfloodinghas period has never beenfloodedany more andthe Yenisey confluencewiththeAngarariver segmentriver from KMCC downto the since thenthehighfloodplainwithin hydrological regime insuchaway that station in1970whichchangedthe Yenisey hydroelectric powerof theKrasnoyarsk 1972 and1988succeededtheconstruction and thelongest. The high-water events of of1966wasmaximum high water period 1966, 1972and1988aboundinwater. The the Yenisey basinoccurred intheyears of The mainradionuclidecontaminationof Cs contamination levels of the left bank Cs contaminationlevels oftheleft 227.06.2013 14:24:07 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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5 52 ENVIRONMENT 2 equaled to 18kBq/m 137 the river. KMCC bankof whichislocated ontheright downstream the zone within160km impact oneexceptthose oftheright for thenear floodplain were noticeablyhigherthan showed thefollowing levels for et. al., of1979 2008]insummer period one) downstream theKMCC by [Vakulovsky (thesecond (thefirstone)and784km km riverstations located attwo 166 performed other investigators. The measurements falling downstream wasfound alsobythe ofthe of themiddlesection Yenisey basin existence contamination ofhighradioactive with high bank itreached 122kBq/m the globallevel. thenearzone maximum In maximum valuesseveral timesexceeding from 2,9kBq/m the average valueof theremoteIn zone of Yenisey contamination et.al., 2004]. 2000; Sukhorukov of1,7–2,5kBq/m interval in the exceeded itsgloballevels varying m maximum valuesamounted to 144kBq/ downstream, where the and 640–800km bank480–640km ontheleft observed the same for the right bank; Left_max – maximum values of of values –maximum Left_max bank; right the for same the 2 Cs contamination of the left bankzone Cs contaminationoftheleft and100kBq/m Left_mean – mean values of of values –mean Left_mean Fig. 1. Results of air-gamma survey of the Yenisey river floodplain performed in 1993 in performed floodplain river Yenisey the of survey air-gamma of 1.Fig. Results 137 137 Cs contaminationconsiderably Cs contamination density was Cs contaminationdensity 2 to 6kBq/m 2 correspondingly. The 2 left bank; Right_max – the same for the right bank right the for same –the Right_max bank; left 137 , while on the right , whileontheright 2 [Kvasnikova et.al., [Kvasnikova Cs activity varied varied Cs activity 2 . zone The next 137 2 withsimilar Cs (kBq/m activity 152 [Kvasnikova et. al., 2000]. 2000]. al., et. [Kvasnikova Eu 137 Cs, and variable portion of portion and variable Arelativelywithin thisdistanceinterval. high the 2,9increase ofthetotal riverdischarge of asetradionuclidescorresponding to there wasa2–3-fold decrease ofradioactivity downstream thedischarge point as 784km 10 Bq/m in favour stagesofthemajor of thetwo activity. This is acogentargumentation were found, similar bothbeing ofpractically of30to 40cm andthedepthinterval surface profile peakscorresponding two to thesoil Bq/m For of example, theactivity in 1991byA.Nosov[Nosovet.al., 1993]. reactors were shutdownwasalsoregistered in themiddle Yenisey segment before the of thebottom riversedimentsandthesoils level oftechnogenic contamination High of thesuspension. deposition radionuclidesduring by various levels ofcontaminationthefloodplainsoils correspondingly), ledto different modes and downstream and0,8,0,50,6784 away (0,6,0,5, 0,93 oftotal unit166km particles 60 60 53–78 and20––63kBq/m downstream thedischarge pointreached measured byhimintheBelijisland510km 2 ) along the Yenisey left bank; Right_mean – Right_mean bank; Yenisey left the ) along Co radioisotopes migrating insuspended Co: the1 3 and 4,1Bq/m 137 3 Cs (kBq/m activity ; the2 st station–6Bq/m nd station–2Bq/m 3 . This meansthatasfar 2 ) along the Yenisey the ) along 152 2 . In vertical soil vertical . In 3 137 , 8,7Bq/m Eu Cs and 137 Cs and 3 ,2 4,6 227.06.2013 14:24:07 3 60 7 and . 0 Co Co 6 . 2 0 1 3
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5 island floodplain(Fig. 2). relation ofthe ofmorphology to peculiarities the BP-0 cross-section onecouldseetheir radionuclide contaminationmeasured along high level floodplain.Following thelevels of low andmediumfloodplainreached the crossed the also attheBulchugflowparth, BP-2 being105mand160longstarted island ofBeriozovy. Cross-sectionsBP-1 and formorphological istypical structure whole generalthesameasymmetric floodplain. In absent andpassedabruptlyinto thehigh low andmediumlevels were practically that atthemainstream sideboththe level floodplain(Fig. 2).Oneshouldnote crossed thelow, lowmediumandhigh from theBalchugbranchand started It was located attheheadofisland. the discharge point.Cross-sectionBP-0 downstreama plotBalchug(BP-4) 20km (BP-0,landscape transects BP-1, BP-2), and help ofradiometer CORAD alongthree the IslandofBeriozovy measured withthe ofthefloodplainincluded investigated part point oftechnogenic radionuclides. The downstream thedischargeareas 16–20km The nearKMCC zone embraces the impact zone impact Results ofthe studiesinthe nearKMCC in theyear of1988. formed dueto thecontaminated highwater soillayer wasone found inthesurface alluviallayersof theburied whilethesecond byradionuclidecontamination was marked peak datingbackto 60-iesofthepastcentury contamination ofthe Yenisey basin. The first 3 * Relative to water level at the time of survey inAugust* Relative to 2000(for water level BP-0 atthetimeofsurvey –August 1999). P4104 6 8 , 02175,8 158 77,3 1002 103,6 663,4 251,6 9,6 287 19,2 24 183 1,5 182,4 129,1 563 81,8 650 324 616 48 25 8 16 100 97 96 BP-4 96 BP-2 BP-1 BP-0 Id source (km) discharge Distance from the Table 1. Field data on 137Cs activity measured along cross-sections cross-sections along measured 137Cs on Table data 1. activity Field of the Yenisey fl the of Total number ment points of measure- oodplain in the KMCC near impact zone impact near KMCC the in oodplain hight* (cm) Maximum As theglobal presented in Table 1. areas zone are studiedinthenearimpact inthe parameters ofradionuclidedistribution contained 48measurement points. Statistical of Balchugcross-sectionequaledto 460mand 1 mover themeanlowwater one. The length when thecurrent water level dropped below out (10–20 mwide)flowpathswhichdried bythenarrow dissected flatsurface or wavy the Balchugbranch. The coastalzone hadaflat bankof 350–400 mwideattachedto theright Balchug area were composedoftheislandpart 2011].Landscapecomplexes ofthe Linnik, its different[Linniket.al., 2005; landscapeparts technogenic radionuclidescorresponding to reflected of in alarger oftheinventory variation complicated landscapestructurewhichwas The Balchugfloodplainmassifhadamore of The revealed zones ofmaximumaccumulation withinsmalldistances.density differentiation of high segment byvery was characterized registered generalthisfloodplain atall. In lower thantheglobaloneorwasnot wassomewhatcontamination density (over 6mofaltitude),where the Island atthehighestelevationlevels the highlevel floodplainoftheBeriozovy exception stood for theplotslocated in to radionuclidecontamination. The the wholearea understudywassubjected data of Table 1demonstrated thatalmost 1,75 kBq/m the nearKMCC zone equaledto impact 137 enMnMxSt.dev. Max Min Mean Cs (upto 1000kBq/m 2 137 [Sukhorukov et.al., 2004]the [Sukhorukov 137 Cs activity (kBq/m Cs activity Cs contaminationwithin 137 Cs contamination 2 ) werelocated 2 ) 137 Cs 227.06.2013 14:24:07 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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Fig. 2. 137Cs distribution along the landscape cross-section BP-0 (the Beriozovy Island) 227.06.2013 14:24:07 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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5 of was deposited. The contaminationdensity level floodplainwhere sandy-siltriver load depressions atthefootslope ofthemiddle- layer,now covered byathinturf andin at thebottom oftheformer flowpaths sandswithloamy interlayersand small-grain in thelowfloodplaincomposedoffine dip detector. profile wasmeasured withthehelpof locations (points#11and#24) and 16fieldmeasurement points. Attwo of theBeriozovy Islandincluded28level contamination. Landscapecross-sectionBP-0 maximum value(190kBq/m differed of significantly inthedensity the low, mediumandhighfloodplain,which Beriozovy includedthree elevationlevels: oftheIsland Landscape structureofthispart Beriozovy Island(Fig. 2,[Linniket.al., 2002]). BP-0section located at theheadof alongthelandscapecross- 1999 performed demonstrated bythemeasurements of contaminationcouldberadioactive of ofspatialdistribution The character 2011]. Linnik, light loamdeposits[Linniket.al., 2005; lower floodplaincontainingsilt,peatand 5 60 Co and Fig. 3. Radionuclide distribution in the soil core MBP-1 (cross-section BP-4) 152,154 Eu intotal reached the 2 ) alsoonthe 137 Cs depth 137 Cs Cs varied fromvaried 195to 287kBq/m contamination ofthelowfloodplain(Ia) rare shingleandshowed horizons containing withparticular series level. wasformed bythicksandy This section floodplain 4–5mabove water theriver hasbeenregisteredterrace) withinthe istheslopeofhighbottom IIIb surface, water level (IIaisthebasicfloodplain High by variation of by variation composition ofsedimentsthatwasreflected byamorewas characterized complicated floodplain level (Fig. II,a,b, 2, section c, d, e) field measurementsof thedensity silt deposition.According to the “CORAD” in thelower level locationswithmaximum 137 spectrometer (1–6kBq/m ofthe below thesensitivity “CORAD” radio- to release oftheradionuclidewaste from inriverwater due of increase ofradioactivity suggested to berelated to different periods were found.values ofactivity They were analysis. cleardepthmaximumThe two profile laboratory wassampledfor thefurther amounted to 195kBq/m where the Basing onmeasurement dataatpoint 24 from 5kBq/m Cs contaminationhere wasconcentrated 137 2 to 85kBq/m 137 Cs contaminationdensity Cs contamination density Cs contaminationdensity 137 2 2 ). Almostallthe 2 Cs activity values Cs activity . 2 the soildepth . Middle height . Middle 137 Cs 227.06.2013 14:24:07 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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5 56 ENVIRONMENT 6 layer. Both fallintheintermediate sandy radioactivity loam horizons separated by asmall corresponding to thelaminated sandy- at thedepthof5–8cmand10–15 were peaksofradiocesium distinct two fine sandsoflaminated structure. There the top of theprofile wassucceededby water meanlevel. sandat The soddysilty birch andwillowsprouts 2,13mabove the meadow offorb-foxtail compositionwith level hillockplotcovered bythegrazing alluvial sandyloamsoiloftheupperlow- the laminatedmassif andcharacterized at theBP-4 cross-sectionoftheBalchug The depthprofile MBP-1 (Fig. 3)waslocated dropped to 23Bq/kg. sharply activity tothe grey 45cmdepththe sandobserved thelower layers sandhorizon. In of the silty was detected atthedepthof30–35cmin (320Bq/kg) silt, thesecondmaximumactivity sandy siltlayer bygleysandand underlain depth of10–20cmandcorresponded to a 137 MCC.the Krasnoyarsk The firstmaximumof the indicated altitude. showing fresh alluviumcontaminationat concentration inthetop 2–6cm layer Cs activity (630 Bq/kg) wasfound (630Bq/kg) atthe Cs activity 152 Fig. 4. Radionuclide distribution in the soil core MBP-2 (cross-section BP-4) Eu and 60 Co hadmaximum High levels of High layers. 60 thin humicgleyloamy layers (Fig. 4). depth of15–20cmcorresponded to thetwo containedattheradiocesium inventory asmuch.Maximum by radiocesiumtwice The soilcore appeared to becontaminated trees bushes. and currant with bird-cherry medium-level floodplainunderwillowstand the shoreline ofthe ontop oftheridge soddy sandysoilformed 3,19mabove (MBP-2, Fig. thealluvial 4)characterized Another depthprofile atthiscross section during thelater floodingprocessesduring since anditsminorcontamination of theridge contaminationthe considerableearlier soil profile MBP-1. This allowed suggesting concentration ishalfthatbeingfound inthe KMCC stretched for more than2000km Shown above theremote zone of impact zone impact Results ofthe studiesinthe remote KMCC highwater intheyearduring of1988. hypothesis oftheirpossiblecontamination the soillayers supported in thesurface Co and 152,154 60 Eu Co and
were found inthetop 152,154 Eu
activity activity 227.06.2013 14:24:07 60 7 . 0 Co Co 6 . 2 0 1 3
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5 landscape traps, e.g. plotKR1-15, where sedimentation andfixationwaspossiblein a larger volume ofwater andradionuclide tofloodplain wassubjected washingoutby wasmore descreteupper parts sincethe in thelower Yenisey reachesthe unlike generaltheradionuclidecontamination In floodplain intheremote zone section. 137 137 one shouldnote anindicativeof variation relative elevationaspresented in Table 2 data for thesampled soil cores andtheir (Island delta part Tysyara). Basingonthe and 3)theislandfloodplainincentral bankfloodplainnearset.Karaul the right 2) Island situated opposite to set.Ust’-Port; in theupper Yenisey delta(thePashkov 1)theislandfloodplaincharacterizing: obtained for three floodplaincross-sections down thestream. Here we discusstheresults from thesource ofradionuclidedischarge floodplain areas inthelower reaches. The forbeen more typical theintensively washed lower 2)could have theglobalvalue(Table 3–3,5times with thecontaminationdensity Following thisinference theplotKR1-12 7 Other maximumdepths: *(0–75cm),**(0–25***(0–40cm). Other island floodplain delta, Middle plain coastal flood- delta, Middle island floodplain Upper delta, Location, land- Cs contaminationequaledto 5,7kBq/m ofthe Cs contaminationdensity Yenisey scape S- ig o ,315 6,03 1,53 4,60 3,48 2,90 0,33 4,58 19,60 5,72 0,43 4,80 9,01 3,21 3,21 1,60 1,50 0,21 2,41 7,51 24,73 12,00 88,10 1,62 0,37 top Ridge 29,32 1,38 3,14 Flattened medium-level 2,20 3,72 TS2-7 1,33 Uppermediumlevel, gentleslope 3,48 TS1-8 2,63 1,02 fragment) Scar(terrace TS1-4 Depression KR1-25** Ridge KR1-15 KR1-12* Low level depression Low level ridge PSH1-1*** PSH1-3 level Medium Slope PSH2-7*** level High PSH2-8a PSH2-1 Profi index Table 137Cs 2. of contamination the density soil depth layers within the lower Yenisey study plots [Korobova et.al., 2009] et.al., [Korobova plots Yenisey study lower the within le Floodplain features 2 . 88,1 kBq/m Maximum of theriverbasinandfloodplain. structure hydrological regime oftheriverand the events ofradionuclidecontamination, exampleoftherelation between striking The islandfood plainshowed itselfasa organic matter (Fig. 5). in loamhorizons rich corresponding to silty concentration atadepthof20–25cm radioceasium quantitieswithmaximum soil (KR1-25)containedreliably detectable and thehigher-level soddyloamy sand depressions(KR1-15) withlakes thermokast thetwo inahollowconnecting taken soil of 40cm. The cores ofthepeatgleyloamy contamination insomelayers to adepth (KR1-12)hadtracesof riverside sandyridge exhibited differentKaraul patterns. The soil cores ofright-side floodplainnearset. of distribution The vertical contamination event. layer proved alsothe “old” ageofthe ridge at the head of the Pashkov Island situated attheheadofPashkovridge Islandsituated the plotPSH1-3located onalowfloodplain of radionuclides absence oftheshort-lived 60 Co and 137 –0c 0–50cm 0–10 cm 2 Cs inventory (kBq/m 137 was observed in the soil core of inthesoilcore of was observed 152,154 Cs contaminationreaching Eu in the surface soil Eu inthesurface 2 Elevation ) 137 above water Cs inthe level (m) 227.06.2013 14:24:07 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
1 4 :
2 57 ENVIRONMENT 4 : 0 7 ggi213.indd 58 i 2 1 3 . i n d d
5 58 ENVIRONMENT 8 Fig. 6. Vertical distribution of Fig. 5. 5. Fig. vertical distribution in the floodplain and terrace cores sampled near set. Karaul set. near sampled cores terrace cores sampled on the Pashkov Island Pashkov the on sampled cores 137 Cs and its contamination density density contamination its and Cs 137 Cs the soil soil the Cs 227.06.2013 14:24:07 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
1 4 : 2 4 : 0 7 ggi213.indd 59 i 2 1 3 . i n d d
5 (Fig. 6). The at thebeginning ofthe Yenisey upperdelta erae t 3,14kBq/m to decreased level (PSH2-1)floodplainconsiderably of themiddlelevel (PSH2-7)andhigh flooding. soilcoresThe two TS2-4 and TS2- of of thislocationinthesubsequent periods this islandandamuchlower contamination strong evidenceoftheoldcontamination floodplain (the Tysyara Island)alsopresented The plotstudiedontheotherisland technogenic dueto operationoftheKMCC. and themaximum ofcontamination of thetotal lowdensity and itsriverorigin. On theotherhand, incase the depthof40–50cmproved itsoldage The locationofmaximumcontaminationat than theglobalbackground value. correspondingly thatisonlyslightlyhigher the aerial sourcethe aerial of and highfloodplainshowed dominationof onthemiddle soillayer observed surface 9 density of density 137 137 137 Cs over theregional Cs content inthe 2 Cs contamination and2,2kBq/m 2
contamination ofthe Yenisey floodplain structureofradionuclideModern than oftheKMCC radionuclide discharge. oftheglobal distribution 137 kBq/m topthe latter (1,53 ontheridge core taken floodplain TS2-7. The lowcontaminationof of thesoilscore located on thehighlevel of the reactors were shutdown. The activity referred to 1992when riverdepositionafter observed. The uppersoil layers downto 6cm No cleartracesofthe1988discharge were high water of1966(Fig.during 7). could berelated to radionuclidedischarge considerable contaminationevent which depth of40–50cmand25–32indicating peaksof evident buried 8 located atdifferent elevationlevels had CONCLUSIONS Cs corresponded to ofriver thepattern 137 Fig. 7.Fig. Cs intheselayers wascloseto that 2 vertical distribution in the soil cores ) and an even vertical distribution of distribution ) andaneven vertical sampled on the Tysyara Island Tysyara the on sampled 137 Cs and its contamination density density contamination its and Cs 137 137 Cs activity atthe Cs activity Cs falloutrather 227.06.2013 14:24:08 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
1 4 :
2 59 ENVIRONMENT 4 : 0 8 ggi213.indd 60 i 2 1 3 . i n d d
6 60 ENVIRONMENT 0 3. Korobova E.M.,Brown Korobova J.B., N.G.,Surkov V.V. Ukraintseva (2007) 3. E.V., Kvasnikova V.M., Kertzman E.D., Nazarov I.M.,Stukin Telesnina 2. V.M., Fridman Sh.D. Izrael Yu.A., Е.V., Kvasnikova E.D. Nazarov contaminationoftheRus- I.M.,Stukin (2000)Radioactive 1. a single event of enhanced contamination a singleevent ofenhancedcontamination of 1966and1988whileintheremote zone to discharges highwater intheyears during events ofmaximumcontaminationrelated the radionuclidetraceshave indicated two zones ofKMCCnear andmiddleimpact of silty, the peatandlightloamdeposits. In the lowfloodplainlocationswithdomination of radionuclideloadhasbeendeposited in remote zone waslocal. low-level floodplainwhilecontaminationofthe a continuous The nearKMCC zone by ischaracterized impact manifestation. floodplain inboththespatialandtemporal contaminationofthe radioactive Yenisey an exclusively complicated of pattern the floodplainlandscapeshasproduced complicated morphological structureof regimes ofthe Yenisey river anda matched withdifferent hydrological areas dueto irregular KMCC discharges release ofradionuclidesto theflooding different factors. Adurableandunstable landscapes dependsuponacomplexof 6 Kuznetsov Y.V., Legin 6. V.K., ShishlovA.E.,Stepanov A.V., Savitskii Y.V., Strukov V.N. (1999). N.G., Surkov V.V., KorobovaE.M.,Ukraintseva Linnik 5. N.G.,Surkov V.V., E.M.,Ukraintseva Korobova Brown J.E., Standring W.4. andA.P. Borisov REFERENCES meteoizdat ,2000, Vol.1, p. 549–554. nuclear explosionsandaccidents”, Moscow, 24–26,2000.–St.Petersburg: April Hydro- method//Proceedings Conferenceetry oftheInternational the after “Radioactivity gammaspectrom- (2000) StudyoftheEniseyriver valleyandcatchment usingairborne /Meteorologiya i gidrologiya,sia area ofthecentury bycesium-137attheturn №4.p. 20–31. istry 41(2):190–196. istry Behavior ofPu-239, Pu-240 andCs-137inthesystem Yenisei Sea//Radiochem- River-Kara results. zurPolarforschung, Berichte 419,197–211. N-Y,Inc. pp. 91–156. lution Research Progress. N.Gallo, Eds:Mattia Marco N.Ferrari. NovaSciencePublishers, geochemical Signatures andPatterns Pol- River inGlobalandRegional Contamination. In: intheLower Distribution (2009) Radionuclide Yenisey andPechora Reaches:Landscape ronmental Radioactivity, Volume 96,Issues1–3,July–September 2007,Pages 144–156. vegetation ofthe landscape,Yenisey soilandplantrelationships ofEnvi- //Journal Estuary: the Lower Yenisey the36 during
contamination the middle and contamination themiddleand
In general maximum generalmaximum In th voyage of the RV voyage oftheRV “Akademik Petrov”. Boris Preliminary there. State whoorganized University) ourstay to Dr.to Ust’Port GrebenetsValery (Moscow (deseased). We owe asuccessfulexpedition the headofvoyage Dr. OlegStepanets remember of withgratitude helpfulefforts field studiesinthe Yenisey zone and estuary assistance inorganization oftheESTABLISH Petrov”ofBoris the for Institute Vernasky the crew oftheResearch Vessel “Akademik Volosov (deseased). We are alsothankful to Potapov (Kurchatov Dr. Institute), Alexander State Dr. University), (Moscow Surkov Victor studies: Dr. andDr. NataliaUkraitseva Vitaly in fieldinvestigations to andcontributed the grateful to allthecolleagueswhoparticipated State University. The authorsare extremely incooperationwiththeMoscow Institute ESTABLISH) andcontinuedbythe Vernadsky COPERNICUSthe two projects(STREAM and of intheframework This studywasperformed radionuclide dumpingin1966. was found thatpresumably corresponded to ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
V.G. (2002) Terrestrial investigations in 137 Cs and 40 K in the terrestrial K intheterrestrial 227.06.2013 14:24:08 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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6 2 . Vakulovsky, andChemical Com- oftheMining S.M.(2008)Evaluationofradiationimpact 20. Vakulovsky, inthe S.M., transport (2008).Radionuclide Tertyshnik, E.G.andA.I.Kabanov 19. Vakulovski 18. 12. Linnik V.G., A.I., Kuvylin O.M.,11. Volosov E.M.(2001)Radioeco- Korobova A.G.,Ivanitsky Linnik V.G., Govorun A.P.,10. Potapov V.N., Sadyrev L.N.,ShishlovA.Ye., A.G. Degarmendzhi Linnik V.G. (2011) Technogenic radionuclideswithinthefloodplainsof 9. Techa River Lammers, R.B. andShiklomanov, A.I.(Сompilers).(2006).R-ArcticNet:ARegional, Elec- 8. Kuznetsov Y.V., Revenko Y.A., 7. Legin V.K., N.A.,Zhidkov Rakov V.V., Savitskii Y.V., Tishkov V.P., 1. Suk 17. Nosov, A.V, (1996)Analysisoftheradiationenvironment decom- after ontheEniseiriver 16. Noso 15. Linnik V.G., Brown J.E., Dowdall M.,Potapov 14. V.N., NosovA.V., Surkov V.V., A.V., Sokolov Linnik V.G., Brown J.E., Dowdall M.,Potapov V.N., Surkov V.V.,13. E.M., Korobova Volosov A.G., 1 bine onthe Yenisey ecosystem //Environmental Safety. N2. //AtomicEnisei River Energy, Vol. 105,No. 5,pp. 367–375. contaminationoftheEnisey-river//J.active Environ.Radioactivity, Vol. 29,N3,pp. 225–236. inthe gration ofRadionuclides Yenisei Plain. Publ. HouseofSBRAS “Geo”, Novosibirsk 286p. Section Studies on Enisei River Islands//Proceedings StudiesonEniseiRiver Section from the5 Alexander V. A.M.,Savitsky Sokolov,Yu.V. Martynova Cross- (2002)Landscape-Radiometric Linnik V.G., Potapov V.N., Surkov V.V., Korobova E.M., Volosov A.G.,Borghuis A.,Brown J., pp. 396–405. Conference Cartographic 6.–10.8.2001, Beijing,International [ICC), China, Volume 1, Complex Facilities Industrial //Proceedings oftheMilitary ofthe20th the Impact logical GISfor Contamination oftheAreas Computer Radionuclide under Mapping Moscow, Volume 1.St-Petersburg: Gidrometeoizdat, pp. 543–548. Conference undernuclearexplosionsandaccidents”.“Radioactivity 24–26,2000, April andChemicalCombine //Proceedings zone theMining near impact oftheInternational inthe ofradionuclidedistribution (2000) Landscapepeculirities Yenisey floodplaininthe Geography. №4.PP. 24–30. and themiddlecoursesof Yenisei // River Vestnik state university. Moscow Ser. 5. Snow andIceDataCenter. tronic, Hydrographic for DataNetwork theArctic Region. Boulder, Colorado USA:National 36(6):603–617. Sea//Radiochemistry tive contaminationoftheKara Pospelov Y.N., Egorov Y.M. from (1994).Contribution the Yenisei to River thetotal radioac- Atomic Energy, September 1996, Volume 81, Issue3,pp. 670–674. missioning ofstraightthrough miningchemicalcomplex// reactors attheKrasnoyarsk Atomic Energy, February 1993, Volume 74,Issue2,pp. 139–144. // andChemicalCorporation Eniseyduetothe River discharges Mining from Krasnoyarsk Issue 2,Pages 188–208. of islandsites ofthe Yenisey River, ofEnvironmental Russia//Journal Vol. Radioactivity 87, Wright S.M.,andBorghuis S.(2006)Patterns andinventories contamination ofradioactive The Scienceofthe Total Environment. Vol. 339.Issue1–3,1March. P. 233–251. Enisey) Floodplain, RussiainRelationto SedimentationProcesses // andGeomorphology Vakulovsky, S.M., Contamination oftheBalchug(Upper Tertyshnik, E.G.(2005) Radioactive 16–20 June2002,p. 264–267. intheArcticandAntarctic.rence St.Petersburg, onEnvironmental Radioactivity Russia, horukov, F.V., Degermendzhy, A.G.,Belolipetsky, V.M., etal., (2004).DistributionandMi- v A.V., Ashanin M.V., contaminationof A.M.(1993)Radioactive A.B., Ivanov Martynova S.M., Kryshev I.I., Nikitin A.I., Savitski A.I.,Savitski Yu.V., I.I.,Nikitin S.M., Kryshev S.V., Malyshev Tertyshnik E.G.(1995) Radio- th International Confe- International 227.06.2013 14:24:08 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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6 62 ENVIRONMENT 2 Exploration. 150 publications. ofIUR,AGU, Member EGU, associate ofGeochemical editor oftheJournal biogeochemical provinces, biogeochemicalregionalizing, mapping. healthrisk More than systems in geography, geostatistics. radioecology, computer mapping, radioecological modelingusingGIS,decisionsupport JustinE. Brown ElenaM.Korobova Vitaly Linnik and dynamicmodelingofradionuclides intheenvironment. behavior andfate ofelements interrestrial andaquaticsystems of radionuclidesastracersto elucidate processes leadingto the environmental assessmentsfor impact ionizingradiation,theuse fall underthebroad disciplineofradioecologyandinclude current ofReading, scientificinterestsUniversity UK(1997).His UK(1992)andPhD from the ofAberystwyth, the University thereafter attainedaMSc. from inEnvironmental Geochemistry Lancaster UKin1990withaBSc. inEnvironmental Sciencesand Protection Authority. Hegraduated from of theUniversity landscapes andfood chains, spatialstructureofmodern andmigrationdistribution incomponentsofconjugated interests lieinrevealing ofchemicalelements’ patterns 1993). Assistant Professor research (2007).Major ingeo-ecology Analytical Center Committee oftheRussianChernobyl (1992– Leading researcher oftheRussianScientificPractical andExpert- Wageningen Agricultural (theNetherlands, 1990). University PhD (MSU,Biogeochemistry). 1992).Fellowship ofthe oftheEnvironmentalAnalytical Chemistry, RAS(Laboratory senior researcher and ofthe ofGeochemistry Vernadsky Institute State (MSU, University the Moscow and 1975).Sciencesecretary interests cover abroad rangeofdisciplinesincludinglandscape Contamination: GISandModels” (MSU, current scientific 2008).His of Full Doctor “Landscape Differentiation ofRadionuclide region)”Moscow 1985). (MSU, Department, Cartography Thesis environmental metalsin contaminationmaps(acaseofheavy Cybernetics, 1982).PhD thesis “Computer mappingof 1975, andtheFaculty and oftheAppliedMathematics State (MSU, University Moscow Physical Geography Department, andGeoecology).Hegraduated from theBiogeochemistry of andAnalyticalChemistry, RAS(Laboratory Geochemistry isachiefresearcher ofthe of Vernadsky Institute is a Senior Scientist at the Norwegian Radiation Radiation isaSeniorScientistattheNorwegian , graduated from Geographycal Faculty of 227.06.2013 14:24:08 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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6 * Corresponding author [email protected]: (495)623-18-86,e-mail: of GeoEcology,” RussianAcademy tel. ofSciences (495)624-72-57, (IGERAS),Moscow; The Federal for Institution Science State Budgetary “Sergeev Institute Alexey S. Victorov*, Veronika N.Kapralova ABSTRACT assessmentparameters are:common risk exogenous geological processes. The most associated withdevelopmentof therisk of One oftheurgent tasksinassessment modern oflandscape mathematical morphology sensing, analysis, landscapepattern KEY WORDS theoretical data general agreement and ofempirical The analysisoftheobtainedresults showed datato provewith empirical convergence. and thesimulationresults were compared then, theoretical assumptionswere applied were lakes digitized; plots withthermokarst lakes. Remote sensingimagesofreference shape)thermokarst of irregular (non-circular paper presents theresults oftheinvestigation oflandscape.mathematical morphology The structures; itisbasedonthemethodsof processes onengineering of thermokarst approach for assessmentofimpact risk 3 INTRODUCTION (CASE STUDY OF THERMOKARST PLAINS) OF LANDSCAPE MODELS ON MATHEMATICAL MORPHOLOGY RISK ASSESSMENT BASED
exogenous process. damage to engineering structures from of somedegreeThe probability of hazardous exogenous process. length) ofanengineering bya structure oflosses(e.g.,expectation area or The average –themathematical risk .
The paperpresents anew :
risk assessment,remoterisk applicable for alimited numberofsituations. a circular shape, and, thus, thesolutionwas case, whenthefoci oftheprocesses have the problem wassolved for thesimplest 2007, Victor, 2011]. However, Kapralova, 2006; ofareas [Victor, genetic types Victorov, has beendemonstrated for anumberof assessment in engineering risk structures use ofmorphological models structure Previously, andtheways of thepossibility promising.very construction. Therefore, thisapproach is not assessment isneededatthedesign stageof of anengineering structure, however risk comparable withthetimeofoperation The timerequired to obtainsuchdatais that anengineering structureencounters. of physical andgeographical conditions type structures, every especiallyconsidering volume ofstatisticaldataondamageto approach, itisdifficultto obtainalarge thestatistical damage are studied. poorly In assessing theprobabilityandsize of thatprocesses,with thefact whichallow task isstillurgent. isassociated The difficulty Dulov, Kuznetsov, et.al., 2012],however, the 2003; Management, Yelkin, 2004;Ivanov, studies [e.g., Assessment andNaturalRisk ofmany assessmentisthesubject Risk
exogenous process. an engineering byahazardous structure ofdamage distribution The probability 227.06.2013 14:24:08 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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2 63 ENVIRONMENT 4 : 0 8 ggi213.indd 64 i 2 1 3 . i n d d
6 64 ENVIRONMENT 4 following stages: processes may undergo thethermokarst theprocess ofdevelopment,In thefoci of significant assessment. challengesinrisk thatcreates is specificallythislastfactor 2). It may differ significantly from acircular (Fig. to merge and, thus, theshapeoffoci in theprocess ofdevelopment, theytend byanalmostroundcharacterized shape, but processes are (lakes) foci ofthermokarst scattered across theplain.Initially, emerging randomly lakes with interspersed thermokarst predominance oftundravegetation, and with undulatingsurface a sub-horizontal The investigated represents ofterrain type an example(Fig. 1). plainsas lake usingthermokarst conducted of hazardous processes. The research was withtheirregular shapefocithe territories models for of anumberofgenetictypes assessment usingmorphological structure demonstrate thesolutionto aproblem ofrisk The goalofthestudypresented herein isto OBJECT AND OF METHODS OBJECT THE STUDY Fig. 1. A typical landscape of a thermokarst lake plain lake athermokarst of landscape 1.Fig. Atypical occurs in non-overlapping areas (Δoccurs innon-overlapping depressions isprobabilistic and primary 1. The process ofemergence ofthe was basedonthefollowing assumptions: geomorphological properties. The model and,its physical-geographical firstofall, site,lake homogeneousinrespectto 2006]. Let usconsiderathermokarst 1995; plain [Viktorov, Victorov, 2005, Victor, lake structure modelfor a thermokarst may bebasedonthemorphological assessment The solutionto thetaskofrisk 3. Possible merging withother adjacentlakes. etc.);the lake, of content, soilcompositioninthevicinity (average airtemperature, permafrost ice speed dependsonmany randomfactors its dueto thethermoabrasiveimpact; lake) 2. The expansionofthefocus (thermokarst [Perlstein, Levashov, Sergeev, 2005]; of arelatively large water layer indepressions seemstomajor factor betheaccumulation focus, the theemergence oftheprimary 1. In s ) and 227.06.2013 14:24:08 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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6 p depressions, thatis, than theprobability ofemergence ofseveral of asingledepression issignificantly greater independent; theprobabilityofemergence (Δ timeperiods at non-overlapping p of development, the lakes canmerge.of development, thelakes inthecourse independent oftheotherlakes; isarandomprocessthermoabrasion andis 2. The growth dueto inthesize ofthelakes depressionsappearing perunitarea attime where Δ( 5 k 1 of a thermokarst lake plain in remote sensing remote in plain lake athermokarst of ( ( t t ) = ) =λ( o (Δ t )Δ t s Fig. 2. A typical landscape landscape Atypical 2. Fig. ) means the density ofnewly ) meansthedensity Δ s Δ t ) t + k o =2 ,.. (2) =2,3,..., (Δ s Δ) (1) t ); itis t . where of alinearstructuregiven length( Let uscompute theprobabilityofdamage Polishchuk, 2012;andothers]. 1995,2006; other publications[Victorov data(Fig.by ourexperimental 3)and The Poisson isconfirmed oflakes distribution canmerge.new lakes, existinglakes ispossibleand,lakes even intheabsenceof since theemergence ofnewthermokarst depressions ingeneraldependson time unit area perunittime is theaverage numberofdepressions per P meets thePoisson thatis, distribution, depressions (foci) site atarandomlyselected 2006]. Thus, ofthermokarst thedistribution 1995; plain [Viktorov, Victorov, 2005, Victor, featuresof thestructural ofathermokarst in order to obtainconsistent patterns mathematical analysisoftheassumptions This foundation provides thebasisfor arigorous the mechanismofprocess. the studyarea andusingexistingideasabout they are of derived assumingthehomogeneity The assumptionsseemto bereasonable since SIMULATION RESULTS ( k , t ) = s [()] isthearea ofthetest site, μ( μ k ts ! k e −μ of the number of thermokarst () ts empirical distribution lakes at a random site arandom at lakes of the theoretical and and theoretical the of , (3) Fig. 3. Comparison Comparison 3. Fig. t . of The density L 227.06.2013 14:24:08 t ). 7 ) . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
1 4 :
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6 66 ENVIRONMENT 6 axis structure islocated. Consider acoordinate width First, we willconsiderthebandofafinite α = the following expression: probability ofdifferent projectionsizes, gives width ofagiven band. This, the considering the lengthoffocus projectionandthe on theabove mentionedrelations between inside theprojectionoffocus) depends the projectionoflinearstructurewillbe structure (i.e., thatthepointcorresponding to of agiven number, focus touches thelinear probability (α)oftheevent whenone, out their independencefrom eachother. The projections atgiven segments oftheaxisand equal probabilityoflocationsthefoci projections ontheaxisand, therefore, the thePoissondetermines oftheir distribution Poisson ofthefoci distribution atasite may beeasily demonstrated thatthe It ofthesegmentintersection andthepoint. isexpressedof thelinearstructure asthe to ontheaxis. itsprojection The damage a segment, whoselengthcorresponds –by by apoint,thefocus ofthermokarst theprojection,thisaxisisrepresentedIn where the foci touches thelinearstructureand The probability oftheevent whennoneof the sizes ofthefoci projectionsattime procedure for probability assessment of damage damage of assessment probability for procedure to a linear structure (explanation in text) in (explanation structure alinear to 2 x 0 ∫ Fig. 4. Schematic representation of the R perpendicular to thelinearstructure. perpendicular 2 x R R f (Fig. 4),atwhoseaxisthelinear p f ( p x ( , x , t t ) means the distribution of) meansthedistribution ) dx (4) t . since ( ofthegivenat unlimited extension band summation over of thefoci inthebandmay beobtainedby of alinearstructureatrandomnumber The level ofsafety (probabilityofdamage) events:in oneofthetwo by thefocus oftheprocess attime given radius( an areal shapewitha structureofaspherical Let uscompute the probabilityofdamage segments according to (9). probability ofdamageiscomputed for its line,be approximated andthe byakinked should inthiscase,assess therisk thecurve this result may beconsidered abaseline. To line, hasashapeofcurved alinearobject If by atleastonefocus is withthelength damage ofalinearobject ofHence itisclearthattheprobability time tation ofthevaluefoci projectionsat where P centres are independent,is: assuming thattheirnumberequals PRt L e PLt PLt e k R = R +∞ ∑
0 nl nl dl = →+∞ i ), ( ) , ( 2 lim 0
( e 0 → k, less than contour, but atadistancefrom thefocus The center isoutside the ofthestructure focus contour, The center iswithin the ofthe structure , 1 (,) (,) (,) 1) (1 μα −μ
2() R + t α= −α , therefore, reductionthesafety after is , rt pr ∞ == α= tRL t =− = = ) =(1–α) Rxfxtdxprt ) () ktRL −μ 2()] ) ( [2 means themathematicalexpe c- l +∞ μ )() () . 0 ∫ tprtL −μ l ). The damage ofthestructure tRL k )() () tprtL ! p k k andtransitionto thelimit k 2()] ) ( [2 (8) e μ −μ . (9) 2() tRL k ! k e –2μ( (6) (7) t )RL k t . (5) and the occurs 227.06.2013 14:24:09 7 . 0 6 . 2 L 0 1
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6 P moment, is ofthefocinon-intersection atagiven independence onthelocationandmutual the assumptionfor the focus area ofits the contours ofany focus considering of thecenter to ofthestructure bewithin isnatural to conclude thattheprobability It events. probabilities above-mentioned ofthetwo structure isequalto theproduct ofthe Thus, ofdamagetheareal theprobability its focus, butatadistancelessthan shape byasetofpointsthearea outside the process. Let’s denote the structure isinthe The latter meansthatthecenter ofthe where μ( radius where islocated, thestructure boundedby event, letusfirstreview thecircular area, To theprobabilityofsecond determine average area ofonefocus attime the foci perunitarea at time of thearea ofthe “touch” isdefinedbytheratio thestructure) the the center willbewithin ofthestructure the buffers ofthefoci withdifferent area is theprobabilityofformationconsidering of the entire area ofthecircular shapeand 7 1 ( t ) =μ( l -buffer ofthefocus (i.e., thefocus will R . The probability oftheevent when Fig. 5. Example of the the of 5.Example Fig. t t of a thermokarst focal point focal athermokarst of ) ) meanstheaverage numberof s ( t ), (10) l -buffer ofthefocus and l -buffer ofthefocus of l t –buffer ; s ( l t -buffer ofa ) meansthe t . l (Fig. 5). s l where where of notacircular, this butofacomplexform. In to findtheexpression for theareal-structure The buffer-concept generalization allowsus P this caseis the circular areal structurewithradius Accordingly, theprobabilityofdamage fairly, we get of thefoci thecircular andextending shape eventually transitioningto arandomnumber the focus attime where s following expression thiscase, weIn cananalyticallyderivethe ofthestructure. thantheboundary curvature other words, ifaconcave site hassmaller ofatleast– shape, butwithcurvature foci have aconvex oraconvex-concave The formula canbegreatly simplifiedifthe their numberwithinthebandis foci touches theareal structure, assuming the probability oftheevent thatnoneofthe presentedlinear structure above, evaluating time of distribution P withradius structure Thus, theoverall ofthecircular probability l e Plt α= -buffer attime b b ( ( 2 l l ( ( ,)(, ) ,, ( ) (, ,) (, , , l l tfxltdx f lt , , t t t t ) =1–[1μ( ) =1–[1μ( ) = ) = t = . forThen, applyingthealgorithm a p s f π b +∞ b l ( 0 ∫ 0 ∫ R p ( t ( −μ l ) meanstheaverage of perimeter x 2 , + ( xf , π t )(,) () slt ts ) meanstheaverage size ofthe R b x l , ( t 2 b x )π t , ) means the density ofthe ) meansthedensity t l b -buffer area ofthefocus at l l given bytheexpression , 2 t t t t , (15) , (12) ) ) . ) s s dx ( ( t t )] )] l . (13) inthismodelis e e −μ μ+π −μ , (11) )(,) () ) )] () ()[ slt ts tlpt l b . (14) 2 . (16) k , and 1 l l , in in 227.06.2013 14:24:09 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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6 68 ENVIRONMENT 8 distribution of the area of a thermokarst oftheareadistribution ofathermokarst P the areal structureis expression for theprobabilityofdamage Overall, theanalysisshowsthat and thediameter ofthestructure. the focus andthecenter ofthestructure, thelineconnecting (4) theanglebetween structure, andthediameter ofthefocus, and thefocusconnecting andthecenter ofthe the structure, theline (3)theanglebetween the contour ofthefocus, (2)thecontour of the buffer offour (1) isafunction factors: center theseconditions, ofthestructure. In ( the center ofgiven ofthestructure shape the focus boundary, sothatwhenitcontains case, thebuffer meansthearea surrounding where where the focus buffer attime P of thefoci [0, merging intheinterval segment [0,2π]. As aresult, theprobability will have auniform onthe distribution oftheconditionssite,homogeneity thediameters),angle between dueto the of therelative ofthefoci orientation (the to thefirstfocus. isclearthatthe angle It have someprobabilistic similar distribution structure andto assumethatitscontours the secondfocus for theengineering [0, period over time- lakes merging ofthermokarst solved theproblem oftheprobability Solving thelatter problem, we have actually probability ofdamagefor alinearstructure. the setofparameters inthecomputationof given-shape. This setofparameters differs from average area ofthebuffer ofastructure ofthefoci,density average area ofafocus, and structure atagiven timedepends ontheaverage Thus, ofdamageanareal theprobability engineering ofagiven structure shape( C ( i ( l t ) andbearings, thefocus touches the , ) =1–[1μ( t ) =1–[1μ( s b f bi ( t C ). For this, itis sufficientto substitute ( x , , α, t ) meanstheaverage size of t )s( t ) t s t ) meansthedensity ( )] t )] e e −μ −μ )(,) () t slt ts )(,) ( () inrelation to the sCt ts bi b , (18) (17) , t ) is C ). of therelative attime orientation focus inrelation to anotherfocus, atαangle P site (withalready existingprocess foci) and, linear structure(segment) withinaselected number generator, we randomlyplaceda programming tools and the random usingwas simulated inthe following way: development ofevents inreal conditions thisreasoning,Considering the the linearstructure. on theimage, couldhave damagedornot foci emerging inthefuture, visiblenow probability, atany pointatthesite. The the structurecanbelocated, withequal for over alinearstructure anotherand reasons to prefer somespecificlocation is homogeneous, we donothave any process. Becausethesitethermokarst at agiven site before ofthe thestart reasoning. Let usassumethatwe are wasbasedonthefollowingstructure the probabilityofdamagefor alinear of theexpression for theassessmentof Siberia). standardThe testing plots(West structures were initiallyfield-tested at The obtainedexpressions for linear Ѕ [ time-period merging atagiven withsomeotherlake differentiating ofthelake theprobability From thisformula, itiseasyto obtainby given bytheexpression buffer inrelation to anotherfocus attime focusthe average area ofthethermokarst DISCUSSION =ααst c bi Δ ( 2 t () 00 ∫∫ π t , + t +Δ +∞ = o 2 (Δ 1 π t ) = t ). fxtdxd t x xf bi t ⎣⎦ ⎢⎥ ⎢⎥ ⎢⎥ ⎢⎥ ⎡⎤ , ,, . ,) (, 1()() +μ t −μ +Δ dt d 1 s dttst t )() () ). st ts bi d (19) μ+ ()() tst t ; s bi ( t ); means Ѕ (20) 227.06.2013 14:24:09 7 . 0 6 . 2 t 0 , 1 3
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6 basic elements: (for example)shouldcontainthefollowing above, theprocedure for alinearstructure theinformationConsidering presented a shapeofalignment ofalinearfacility. assessment,forrisk example, inselecting basis for theuseofremote sensingin The modelpresented herein isthe The test produced positive results (Fig. 6). (segments)structures ofdifferent length. The procedure wasrepeated for linear numbers from expression (8). cases) wascompared withthecomputed focus ofthetotal numberof (infractions notdamagedbya of thelinearobjects thefoci.intersecting The obtainednumber then, estimated thenumberoflines, not 9
expectation oftheprojectionlogarithm); expectation ofthemathematical linear interpolation or (linearinterpolation linear structure ofthe to thebearing perpendicular functioning,of thestructure ontheaxis thatappearoverprojections the duration ofof mathematicalexpectation Forecast based onrepeated computations using theobtainedexpressions (9). Computation oftheprobabilitydamage Fig. 6. Comparison of the theoretical and empirical probability probability empirical and theoretical the of Comparison 6. Fig. of damage for linear structures subsidence, etc.). independently (for example, swamping, processes, where foci emerge anddevelop results to other obtainedcanbeextended of eachfrom oneanother. Therefore, the andtheychangeindependentlycharacter ofthefocithe distribution hasthePoisson process, that butonlythefact thermokarst significantly themechanismsof ouranalysis, weIn have notused foci.for thesize ofthe karst recommendations donotaccountwell not to moreover, alinearstructure; the ofdamageforthe risk 1haofarea, and therecommendationsspeaking, refer to 2012],however,Surveys..., strictly [Recommendations for Engineering represents risk anexceptionKarst fociappearing ofexogenous processes. overstructure itslifetime byexistingor of theprobabilitydamage not provide for quantitative assessment structure, for does example, practically At thepresent time, design ofalinear surveys. the parameters are definedfrom repeated 2007]; [Victorov, distribution logonormal for already existingfoci usingthe to account addition,itisnecessary In 227.06.2013 14:24:09 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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2 69 ENVIRONMENT 4 : 0 9 ggi213.indd 70 i 2 1 3 . i n d d
7 70 ENVIRONMENT 0 1 . Yelkin, Republicof V.A.Tatarstan). hazard (The andrisk (2004)Regional assessmentofkarst 11. Viktorov, A.S.,Kapralova, V.N. (2011) The useofmethodsmathematicalmorphology 10. Viktorov, A.S.(2006) The mainproblems ofthelandscape. of mathematicalmorphology 9. Viktorov, plainsasafoundation lake ofin- modelof thermokarst A.S.(1995)Mathematical 8. Victorov assessmentbasedonthemathematicalmodelof diffuseexoge- A.S.(2007)Risk 7. andfluvialerosion plains. GIS Victorov modelsofthermokarst A.S.(2005) Mathematical 6. andOperationofBuil- Recommendationsfor Design, Construction, Engineering Surveys, 5. Polishchuk, V.Yu. proces- modelingofthedynamicsthermokarst (2012)Mathematical 4. Perlstein G.Z.,Levashov A.V., Sergeev D.O. stagewith early (2005)Analysisofthermokarst’s 3. Ivanov V.A., V.A. Dulov, S.Yu. Kuznetsov, 2. S.F. M.V. Dotsenko, Shokurov, Y.V. V.V. Saprykina, Assessment (2003)Proceedings andmanagementofnaturalrisks oftheAll-RussianCon- 1. plainsdevelopment lake of thermokarst 2. The modelofthemorphological structure flooding, etc.) have beenobtained. collapsibility,shape foci karst, (thermokarst, with thePoisson andwithfree- distribution and areal damagebyprocesses structures 1. The expressions for assessmentoflinear risk REFERENCES CONCLUSIONS Ph. D. IGERAS.24p. Thesis. Moscow: pp. 165–174. Nauka, structures //Geoecology. №2,Moscow: assessmentofdamagebyhazardousin risk exogenous processes for linearengineering 252p. Nauka, – Moscow: terpretation ofsatellite Nauka. imagery. from Space, №5,Moscow: The studyoftheEarth nous geological processes. Geology. Mathematical Vol. 39,N8,pp. 735–748. and spatialanalysis. Proceedings ofIAMG vol. 1, Toronto, Canadap. 62–67. 138 p. Novgorod intheNizhny Region Novgorod, (2012)Nizhny onKarst dings andStructures ses inpermafrost in Western Ph. Siberia. D. thesis. Barnaul. 21p. Potsdam. methods// deterministic Transaction oftheSecondEuropean Permafrost Conference. Sea GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY, №1(v. 05),pp. 84–111. Malinovsky, V.G. waves intheBlack Polnikov killer assessmentofencountering (2012)Risk ference 2003”,“Risk Vol. ofPeoples’ 1.University Friendship Press, 412p. of different hazardous processes. dependondifferentrisk parameters for foci case becausetheprobabilities ofdamage areal structuresdoesnotcoincideingeneral associated withdamageoflinearand risk hasbeendemonstrated thatzoning for3. It merging. lakes thermokarst has beenobtained;themodelconsiders 227.06.2013 14:24:09 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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7 1 morphology of landscape and risk assessment. oflandscapeandrisk morphology Morphology” (2006), “and “Natural Hazards ofRussia” (2002,withco-authors). LandscapeMorphology”“Mathematical (1998), “Fundamental Landscape IssuesofMathematical etc.). Kyzyl-Kum, The results were summarized innumerous publications, includingmonographs hydrogeology, geoecology, andregional research (Usturt, territories Tugay onarid depression, datato address tasksofengineering geology,interpretation andspaceimagery ofaerial andmethods of identificationand were obtainedinthecourseofdevelopment oftheory new trend inlandscapescience–mathematicalmorphology. Significant results geological processes ofdifferent genetictypes. hasledto development ofa This activity Veronika N.Kapralova Alexey S. Victorov environment anddangerous geological processes, mathematical her alotinpresent researches: ofgeological monitoring helped experience herpractical whichshehasgotduring skills asresult ofherstudiesandfieldworks. attainments andskills The hasgotengaged inscientificwork. Veronika Kapralova geoecology, assessmentandenvironmental risk monitoring remote sensingmethods, mathematicalmethodsofmorphology, Geoenvironment Monitoring. Sheisaqualifiedspecialistinthe for ofRemote SensingMethods (IEG RAS),Laboratory of Environmental GeoscienceofRussianAcademy ofSciences 2005 andisaPhD studentandjuniorresearcher attheInstitute of GeodesyandCartography, Faculty ofAppliedCosmonautics in models ofmorphological formed structures byexogenous research(2006). His isfocused oncreation ofmathematical the NationalEcological Prize (2004),andtheRAS Grigoriev’s Prize awarded thePrize oftheRussianFederation Government(2003), attheInstitute, hiswork hehasbeen Geoecology ofRAS.During Director forhas beenDeputy Research of oftheInstitute design andoperationofgeotechnical systems. Since2006,he Technology for onintergraded hiswork remote sensingusedin colleagues, wasawarded theState Prize inScienceand Geoinformation 1996,he, Center together ofRAS. In withhis Degree for in1988.Heworked andforVSEGINGEO theScientific heobtainedhisPhD Degree in1976andhisDSc State University; graduated from theLomonosov Moscow graduated from University theMoscow 227.06.2013 14:24:09 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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7 72 SUSTAINABILITY 2 1 e-mail: [email protected]: * gory,Leninskie 1,1199911; Tel. [email protected] +74959393842,e-mail: [email protected], e-mail: 8,Sapporo, 9Nishi Kita 060-0809Sapporo, University; Japan; Hokkaido Tel: +8 which began during the industrialization theindustrialization which beganduring common problem ofdeclining population Rural areas inJapanare plaguedwitha sea temperature rising, eco-product development, ruraldepopulation,geopark, around theworld. can bereplicated inotherruralcommunities development ofthetown inthe future which andinitiatives foractivities thesustainable the uniquenessofSamaniandtheirownlocal opinions andpositionswhichwere basedon other hand. The authorsfocused onthecitizens few strong comprehensive challengesonthe quite uniquenaturalfeatures onhandbuta focus migration. onrural-urban Samanihas and thelocalhighschoolwithaparticular were targeted aswell sector asthegovernment olivine industry, fishery, agriculture andtourism government. The maineconomicsectors: involving thelocalpeopleand and interviews done bymeansoffieldvisits, questionnaires advantages were investigated. The research was challenges thataffect thetown aswell asthe business, environmental, socialandeconomic Japan.Local region, activities, Hokkaido, Hidaka development ofSamanitown –aruralarea in of afieldinvestigation aboutsustainable 3 2 Devon R.Dublin ABSTRACT. INTRODUCTION KEY WORDS: A CASE STUDY OF SAMANI DEVELOPMENT IN RURAL HOKKAIDO: LOCAL INITIATIVES FOR SUSTAINABLE Duke University; 135Pivers NC28516; Duke University; IslandRdBeaufort, Tel: (252)269-4130, Faculty ofGeography, Lomonosov Moscow, Moscow State University; Russia; ofEnvironmentalGraduate School Science, Center for Science, Sustainability Corresponding author The paperpresents theresults socialresearch, rural 1 , Alexandra I.Bancheva 2* 9 A regional the washeldduring workshop Exchange Promotion Committee, 2012]. International depopulation [OitaOVOP beingtoone oftheobjectives prevent Oita prefecture inJapan inthe1970’s with development approach wasinitiated by regionaland demanddriven economic oftheworld. parts centeredThis community promoted throughout Japanandinother Product movement whichhasbeen (OVOP) was theemergence oftheOne Village One One examplethatarose outofthisproblem driven thathave thisissue. soughtto curb both from theGovernmentaswell aspeople But allisnotlost,there have beeninitiatives cases even thepostofficeclosesitsdoors. this problem [Nobuo, someextreme 2012].In in Japanatarate of400–500peryear dueto its existence. Schoolshave closednationally ending some villagecommunitiesvirtually in thepopulationwhichhasresulted in andanaging due to adecrease inbirths inrecent exacerbated years has beenfurther migration [Matanle,rural-urban 2008]. This dueto ofthecountry and modernization Foresight Cent was initiated bythe Scienceand Technology and Technology Policy, 2010]. This research ofScience [NationalInstitute comfortably conditions oftheregion, wherein citizens live fully compatiblewiththeenvironmental was aimedatdrawing uparegional model th , Amy Freitag Scienceand Technology Foresight and er of 3 Japan to discusswith 227.06.2013 14:24:09 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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7 the lessons learnt canbereproducedthe lessonslearnt in forforward ishopedthat itscitizens. It citizens’ pointofview, thusproviding away find outthestrengths of Samani from the support. of this researchThe objective is citizens’ andgoverments’ knowledge regions lays inacomprehensive approach: way ofsustainabledevelopment oftherural is premised onthebeliefthatoptimal regard asmostimportant? This research advantages anddisadvantagesdocitizens people seetheirfuture andwhatfeatures, model sustainabletown and nature withthegoalofitbecominga strengthen therelationship humans between we inSamanito leverage existingpractices help initssustainabledevelopment, howdo believe thattheuniquenessofSamanicould to otherruralareas inJapan.Sincecitizens facing thesamechallengesthatare common share oftheeffects ofthisproblem andis Samanihashaditsequal became extinct. have populated thearea inthepastandthen of theotter” whichsuggeststhatotters may There isapparently anothermeaning “place (Fig. andErimo found Urakawa between 1). region andis oftheHidaka ispart 2013]. It trees” Promotion [Mt.ApoiGeopark Council, sanmauni name issaidto comefrom theAinuterm town’sisland ofJapancalledHokkaido.The Samani town islocated inthenorthern desired future society. issues from theviewpointofrealizing the representative awiderangeof stakeholders 3 , whichmeans “place ofwithering ? HowdoSamani Fig. 1. Location of Samani town [Aoki, 2006] area of364,33km hasan It Subprefectural Bureau ofHokkaido. to theHidaka Samani town whichpertains 2012. The investigation outin wascarried inNovemberand theSamanigovernment University Center ofExellence, Hokkaido and nature” under theauspicesofGlobal school for“Sustainability coupledhuman Follow-up Program summer ofinternational This research the wascompleted during region inthefuture. realization oftheidealsocialmodeleach other ruralareas aswell conducive to the reciprocally inJapanese andEnglish, were A total conducted of25interviews logistically ofSamani. bytheGovernment andwasfacilitated field visitwasdonepersector focus migration. onrural-urban One particular commission); andthelocalhighschoolwitha gear, convenient store sector and theprivate preparedness); (seafood, enterprise sports tax, forestry, water, library, civiland disaster education, commerce, administration,tourism, (divisionsincluded sector the government fishery, agriculture investigated andtourism; economic sectors, namely, olivineindustry, people andgovernment. We studiedthemain withthelocal questionnaires and interviews The research wasdonebymeansoffieldvisits, Autonomous Academy, 2012]. of 5,029asMarch 31 MATERIALS AND METHODS 2 andacurrent population st , 2012 [Japan , 2012[Japan 227.06.2013 14:24:09 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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7 74 SUSTAINABILITY 4 oriented as well, which is a rather important aswell,oriented whichisaratherimportant there were thatwere socialactivities family Samani products. Besides thefood sale, visitors saw itasanavenue for advertising consider thefestival asalocalfood fairwhile Sapporo. The results showed thatcitizens rest and Erimo beingvisitors from Urakawa, from Samaniandthe of theparticipants questionnaires were with82% collected andtraditions. Atthefestival,activities 95 about theuniquefeatures ofSamani,its to withcitizens more interact andlearn for us in Samani,wasagoodopportunity The Local Food Festival, anannualevent possible implementationsinthefuture. forGovernment theirconsiderationand recommendations wasmadeto theSamani from them.Finally, apresentation with findings to thecitizens andobtainfeedback held successfullyto present ourpreliminary investigation. Atown hallmeetingwas ofour was attended andformed apart ourresearchoccurred during period SamaniandNodatownsbetween which A meetingonDisaster preparedness All questionnaires were doneinJapanese. would have beenanswered perquestionnaire. arangeof6–12questions on eachparticipant, coincided withourresearch period. Depending school, andtheSamaniFood Festival which thehigh at theSamaniGovernmentOffice, and analyzed. Questionnaires were distributed A total of168questionnaires were collected social andenvironmental aspects). challenges for theirbusiness(economical, advantages anddisadvantagesofSamani The mainquestionswere withregard to accompanied byseveral follow-up questions. had9core questionswhichwere interview andavailability.willingness to participate Each from basedontheir eachofthesectors of theinterview. Persons were selected and merged into onedocumentattheend notes were simultaneouslyintriplicate taken were audiorecorded analysisand for further facilitated byaninterpreter. The interviews RESULTS AND DISCUSSION of warm water species.of warm Salmoncatch has spoilage(Fig.catch, kelp 2)andinfiltration affected resulting thesector inadecline Climate changeandseatemperature rise the environment to theindustry. ascritical allhighlighted issuesrelatedinterviewed to isthatthefour fishermen What isimportant fertile. whichisvery waters from thenorth) Current (cool the south)meetsOyashio the Kuroshio Current waters from (warm and itsfishingground islocated where culture from thetimeofEdoperiod aswell. Samanihashadthisfishing Hokkaido region and to othercoastaltowns inHidaka (kelp, whelkandsalmon),asimilarfeature inSamani Fishery isoneofthemainsectors interested, thusshowcasing Samani. with sightseeingfor othervisitors whoare anditcanbecoupled regions ofHokkaido can selltheirproductsto personsofother would bebeneficialto thecitizens sincethey more visitors. thusattracting advertised, This to improve itsimageifitisadequately thefestival canserve andUrakawa), (Erimo communities asitsneighbouring well known development (48%).SinceSamaniisstillnotas (43%) and community and culturalheritage culture andcuisine(48%),socialawareness to promote serves local this annualactivity believed responses, that the participants to feature for ruralcommunities. According Fig. kelp Good quality 2. (left) and spoilt kelp (center and right) (Photo byD. Dublin) (Photo right) and (center 227.06.2013 14:24:09 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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7 is because peridotite rocksis becauseperidotite are quite unique inthetown. industry This most important is bynomeansalimitation since itisthe butthis sector site visited intheindustry The Toho OlivineCompany wastheonly inthefuture. therapy service lookto agrotourismfarmers andhorse- in theirbusiness. For businessdevelopment experience where theyexchange pertinent foronline community young horsefarmers business andhave developed aregional young peopleare stillinterested inthehorse area, thisisawelcome initiative sincemany attachment to farming. As ahorsefarming in farming. This isindicative ofthecultural sell itto othersonlyiftheyare interested leaseitor personsto runthefarm, hiring As aresult, mostofthemare considering little ornointerest incontinuingthefarms. arefarmers agedandtheirchildren show ofthe Government,2011].Most Hokkaido ofAgriculture the islandaswell [Department the causeofSamanidueto itslocationon sothishelps grownproducts inHokkaido, addition,thislabelcanonlybeappliedto In having crop integrated. andanimalfarming by 50%withanimalmanure, agoodway of for whichreplaces rice commercial fertilizers The mostnotableisthe “Yes! Clean” labelused being usedto increase ofproducts. theprice orspeciallabelingis product (strawberry) business opportunities. To achieve this, new for are moreof farmers looking lucrative generations problems sincethenext arise development. Becauseoftheseissues, social but landchangeisdifficultalsolimitstheir thattheyneedexpandtheirfarms fact the economy astheirmainconcern. The as agoodclimate resources andhighlighted interviewed. They mentionedmildclimate theagricultural sector,In four were farmers growth.new kelp andtheplantingofrockskelp to facilitate of harvesting with thisissuesuchasearlier to deal ofactivities already types various relationship with researchers. There are informed inthisregard andshare aworking et al declinedover time[Miyakoshi particularly 5 . 2008]. The fisherfolk seemsquite Commerce isfilledbybusinessesofvarious a large way. The Private Chamber of Sector in would benefitthebusinesscommunity region, sincecollaborative efforts Hidaka inthe infrastructure andconnectivity was anexpression oftheviewfor better From conducted, there thefour interviews whoalsohappento beaged.community thebusiness continuesto hurt social aspect in spite ofthedeclineinpopulation. This isstillsomewhatvibrant sector The private big enthusiasm. blogsandforumsSamani viainternet witha people have madeattempts to promote themselves around quite easily. Somelocal information for sothattheycanfind tourists and theneedfor theexistence of signs and amongresidents andhistory knowledge is aneedto increase awareness, cultural advertised. The hotel ownerssaidthatthere and discounted rates andcampaigns are food festival waslaunchedwithfairsuccess Already a thatisnotwell-known. a fact alternative to theharshwinter inHokkaido, there are ideasofpromoting thetown asan revealed conducted The fourthat interviews interest ingeology, biologyandsuchlike. researchers withparticular oreco-tourists accommodation. Many are tourists specialists, ofavailable than themaximumcapacity quite althoughlower anumberoftourists continues to sector attract The tourism miningandenvironmentalbetween health. Against thisbackground, abalanceisstruck have beencompleted inthearea (Fig. 3). the replanting oftrees miningwould after environment, thecompany spendstimeon ofthenatural Due to theobviousdestruction recognition asaGlobalGeopark. seeking andis itself intheJapanGeoparkNetwork also thereason why thetown hasfound and coastalwaters for fertilize. This rock is rocksBeside thisperidotite provide rivers kelp. andinuseforin construction drying the rocks canbeseeninmany sculptures, ofthecitizen’s part important lives since forms andue to its many It properties. a lotto commercialize itfor uses various to Samani town andthiscompany does 227.06.2013 14:24:10 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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7 76 SUSTAINABILITY 6 of NodaandSamani,demonstrated aclose thesisterwhich washeldbetween towns needs. Adisaster preparedness meeting with thecitizens andare en sync withtheir relationship goodworking office hasafairly onthegroundreality which shows thatthe withthe There seemsbelittledisconnect on theground withthegeneralcitizenry. also corresponded withwhatwasfound similartowere theofficialposition,it very officers offered ideasandopinionsthat must benoted thatwhilethegovernment It departments. persons attachedto various and 26questionnaires were from collected 7interviews Office, At theSamaniGovernance intheregion. andprosperity continuity andthere types isthecommongoalofhaving Fig. 3. Replanting of trees in a mined out area by Toho Olivine Company (Photo by A. Bancheva) byA. (Photo Company byToho Olivine area out amined in trees of Replanting 3. Fig. Fig. 4. Population change in [Bureau Hokkaido of Regional Planning and Promotion, 2008] and aninteractive sessionwasconducted. consulted with47questionnaires received 2011]. The studentsandteachers were 70 deathsperyear [Samani Government, annuallyand has anaverage of20births Japan atlarge (Fig. 4).Currently Samanionly and which isacommonfeature inHokkaido phenomenon andagedsociety low fertility thedepopulation, exacerbates trend further explore migration, rural-urban sincethis The highschoolwasvisited specificallyto have struck. disaster after woulddisaster andrecovery effects, assessment,response risk intimesof possible naturaldisasters, mitigationoftheir Many mechanismsare inplaceto dealwith relationship thetwo.neighbourly between 227.06.2013 14:24:10 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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7 were randomlygrouped to name andasked aswell. Participants apart take government of allagesandprofessions. People from to gatherpeople meeting isapossibility “Future for Samani”. The advantage ofthis time inoneplaceto discussthetheme meeting” citizens is gathering inone in ourfindings. The idea of hall“town that theiropinionswere reflected correctly obtained from thecitizens demonstrated cemented ourfindingssincethefeedback The town hallmeetingwasheldandit to dealwiththisissue. toattachments to want thelocalcommunity areas andassuchdonothave enough businesses. Teachers are allfrom foreign care oftheiragedparents andoversee their personsreturn to take many middle-aged graduatingafter from university. Currently only few ofthemwantto return to Samani theirstudiesand students wantto further as well asinchildcare andhospitality. Other town postofficeandfactories; office, bank, toThey would have like jobsinthelocal 38% ofstudentswantto stay inSamani. from jobs. Accordingapart to theanswers have to filltheseslotswhichindicates that andErimo as suchpersonsfrom Urakawa Samani residents are notfillingthemand businesses thatsaidthere are vacanciesbut to the but thisisindirectcontradiction were theirmainreason for wantingto leave The children expressed theviewthatjobs 7 Fig. 5. Participants at the town hall meeting in the brain storming exercise (Photo by D. Dublin) in varios ways aroundin varios suchasin theworld influence ofoutsiders. This hasbeenproven realizing theirownpros andconswithoutthe where they wantto goandhowto getthere whattheywant fordetermining thefuture, that thepeopleofSamaniare capableof town development andindicates therefore feelings andsentimentsofthecitizens about Our results reflectalmostcompletely the by thecitizens andtheadministration. andapplicable with results thatare workable uponinthetown component wasembarked largeof thisnature, social thatiswithavery it wasthefirsttimeinSamanithataresearch Being famousmostlybecauseofitsgeology, strategic planninginstrument. an important meetings withcitizen involvement couldbe achieved cohesively. Therefore, thetown hall developmentand industrial canbothbe for acalmcountryside nature conservation goods. since These ideasare important newvalue-added electricity, andexporting nature,the mostexciting: marketing solar ideas, andsettledonwhichonesseemed groups reconvened, alistof brainstormed those dreams ofthefuture cometrue. The toto make comeupwithspecificactions ‘industrial development’. taskwas The next ‘independent/self-sufficient Samani’, and future ofSamani(Fig. 5). There were ‘nature’, forseveral the topics themostimportant CONCLUSIONS 227.06.2013 14:24:10 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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7 78 SUSTAINABILITY 8 4. Hirokawa, S.(2010)Promoting Hirokawa, SustainableAgriculture andFarmer Development Empo- 4. Government(2011)Current StatusandIssuesof ofAgriculture Hokkaido Department 3. Bureau ofRegional Future Planning andPromotion (2008)Hokkaido Creation Plan, De- 2. and 6,JapanRailway Scenery Transport (2006)NewJapaneseRailway Review46, K. Aoki, 1. regionally brandedagrotourism collectively and in anenvironmentally way; friendly ores mining ofeconomicallyimportant for thecompatible sustainablefisheries; withthescientificcommunity the partnering enhance andpromote building; community promoted atlocalfestivals designed to town. These includelocallybrandedproducts general wellbeing anddevelopment ofthe involved towards in,thatcontributes the Moreover, there are initiatives citizens are Vietnam [Shaw, 2006]. disaster managementinBangladeshand 2010]and Northeast Thailand [Hirokawa, 2009],agricultural communitiesin[Sari, the forest communitiesofEastKalimantan 9. National Institute ofScienceand NationalInstitute Technology Policy (2010) The 9 9. ofSamani,Secretariat: Promotion Commerce, Mt.ApoiGeopark Council (2013)Overview 8. Miyakoshi, Y., Urabe, H.andNagata,M.(2008)Current statusofnaturallyspawning chum 7. Matanle, P. Sado:Education,employmentandthedeclineofJapan (2008)Shrinking 6. Hokkaido, Municipalities, Shimokawa, Japan Autonomous Academy (2012)Hokkaido 5. 10. Nobuo, H. (2012) Declining Birthrate Changing Nobuo, Japan’s Birthrate H.(2012)Declining Schools, Behind The News. Availa- 10. REFERENCES werment in Northeast inNortheast werment Thailand, 4 Japan. Agriculture Hokkaido, andRuralAreas inHokkaido, Japan. Government,Hokkaido, ofPolicy Planning andCoordination,partment Hokkaido CultureEast JapanRailway Foundation, Tokyo, Japan. jp/en/samani/index.htm and TourismIndustry Samani Department, Town. Available at http://www.apoi-geopark. chery, Japan. Fish Hat- Japan,Hokkaido northern region, Hokkaido, salmon populationsintheHidaka Philipp Oswalt:42–53. cities–Complete 3Japan, (P. works ral regions, Shrinking In Project Oswalt)Berlin: Office Japan. nal Conference, Legazpi City, Philippines. ble athttp://www.nippon.com/en/genre/society/l00018/ jpn/rep142j/idx142j.html Local Regions for Available theGreen Innovation. at: http://www.nistep.go.jp/achiev/ftx/ logy Foresight: of Scienceand Contribution Technology to Future Society. of Capability th Asian RuralSociologyAssociation (ARSA) Internatio- research. forUniversity providing thefundingfor this Excellence (GCOE) program oftheHokkaido We are grateful to theGlobalCenter of inourresearch. andparticipation hospitality and citizens ofSamanifor theirwarm The authorswishto thankthegovernment the world. of sustainable development inotherparts globally, thusreciprocating peopledriven inotherruraltownsbe conducted concluded thatsimilarexercises should canbe approach.with amultisectoral It tocontribute sustainabledevelopment ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS th Scienceand Techno- 227.06.2013 14:24:10 ’ 7 s ru- . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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7 Shaw, BasedFlood from IssuesofCommunity R.(2006)Critical Mitigation:Examples 14. E.(2009)Changesincommunities’ Sari, andforest land-usepatterns concessionaires: 13. SamaniGovernment(2011)EighthComprehensive Plan 2011–2020,Samani,Hokkaido, 12. Exchange Promotion International Oita OVOP Committee (2012).Available athttp:// 11. 9 representative to the World SmallAnimal AssociationVeterinary (WSAVA). board ofthe World Aquatic Association Medical (WAVMA)Veterinary asits andserves Association, theFish Society,Veterinary andisaMember-at-Large United Kingdom ofthe Reduction inAsia”Reduction 2006, January Volume 72,Number1–2. Bangladesh and Vietnam ofScience&Culture Journal SpecialIssueon “Flood disaster Risk ofSocialForestry Journal (IJSF):2(2):185–208. International A studyinEastKalimantan, Japan. www.ovop.jp/en/ Amy E. Freitag Alexandra I.Bancheva Devon R.Dublin communities. HeisamemberoftheGuyana Veterinary theorizing therelationshiptheorizing humansandnature. between scientific research, sustainability, defining community and policy. Sheisbroadly in interested inpublicparticipation Carolina research andinbetter connecting ofNorth toestuaries both better problems understandingwater quality inthe in fromat thepotential contributions non-scientificexpertise “Diverse Ways in ofKnowing Water Conservation” Quality looked University. entitled atDuke Herdissertation, Conservation Island(2013). Prefectures landscapes ofHokkaido (2010),Modern publications: Ecological Footprint, aCaseStudyofFour sustainable development, andgreen innovations. Main research interests lieinglobalenvironmental issues, indicators of graduated in2011.Herprimary geoecology department, State University,Moscow World physical geography and can beappliedgloballyfor invulnerable sustainability research isbasedonthe at theAgrarian current ofHavana, University Cuba in2007.His He graduated in asaDoctor andZootechnics Medicine Veterinary University,Fisheries JapaninMarch 2012. SciencesofHokkaido Life inMarine Sciencesfroma Masters theGraduate Schoolof University,Environmental Japan.Heobtained Science, Hokkaido Environmental intheGraduate Schoolof Management is a Ph. D candidate in Marine Scienceand isaPh. D candidate inMarine iscurrently pursuingaPh. DinGlobal Satoyama-Satoumi is aPh. D student atLomonosov concept andhowit 227.06.2013 14:24:10 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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8 80 SUSTAINABILITY 0 Nigeria; e-mail: [email protected] e-mail: Nigeria; * [email protected]. e-mail: Nigeria; Ilorin, vulnerability ofthepoor.vulnerability less effective andthusare increasing the are rendering indigenouscopingstrategies shocks. Also, many trends oftheselong-term systems struggleto withstanddisaster effective asincreasingly fragile livelihood employed bythepoormay become less that theindigenouscopingmechanisms poor.among theurban The studyrevealed adaptation to weather induceddisasters issueofvulnerability, copingand important 2002 and2007. outthe This studybrings intheState between onfloodvictims Agency Management the KwaraState Emergency data ontheotherhand, includedatafrom the affected areas ofthecity. The secondary questionnaire in administrationto victims datainclude Nigeria. The primary in Ilorin, victims change amongfloodandrainstorm andadaptationto climate vulnerability urban sources thestudyexamines secondary and this. Usingdatafrom bothprimary weatherin extreme events willexacerbate ofKwaraState. Anticipated increasesparts inmost tocontribute endemicpoverty and affect householdseachyear inIlorin resources. Floods, anddroughts rainstorms environmentof thecountry’s andnatural flooding are worsened bythedegradation into environmental emergencies like country. The disasters result whichoften 2 Usman A.Raheem 1 ABSTRACT. NIGERIA OF RAINSTORM IN ILORIN,VICTIMS WEATHER EVENTS: A CASE STUDY AND ADAPTATION TO EXTREME URBAN VULNERABILITY Nigerian Institute of Social andEconomic ofSocial Research Institute (NISER);PMBNigerian 05,U.I P.O, Ibadan, ofGeography andEnvironmentalDepartment University ofIlorin, Management, Corresponding author
Nigeria isadisaster proneNigeria 1* , Felix B. Olorunfemi 2 middle-income nations(Fig.middle-income 1aandb). are areas inurban these impacts inlow-and caused; alarge andgrowing of proportion and alsointheamountofeconomic damage andfloods bystorms impacted or seriously rapid growth inthenumberofpeoplekilled vulnerabilities. Worldwide, there hasbeena events inrecent years highlightstheir weatherand economiescausedbyextreme populations scale ofthedevastationto urban According to etal[2007],the Satterthwaite worrisome. areason urban isparticularly ofclimateand predicted change impact situation,thepresentThe vulnerability [Gwary, 2008]. likely damagesare already occurring,andfurther Significant from harm climate changeis developing andindustrialized nationsalike. growing threat to humanwell-being in largely byanthropogenic isa activities, Meetings. Globalclimate change, driven Conferences andotherInternational the UNGeneralAssembly, theBali,Kyoto evident bytheirrecurrent discussionsat havewarming attainedglobaldimensions ofclimate change andglobal The twin-issues flooding, vulnerability, adaptation,Nigeria INTRODUCTION KEY WORDS:
climate change, disasters, 227.06.2013 14:24:10 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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8 live in poor-quality homesonillegally live inpoor-quality supplies;they no drainsandelectricity weather roads, nopipedwater supplies, dwellers haveof millionsurban noall- to etal[2007],hundreds Satterthwaite physical infrastructure. according Indeed, economic stress, aging andinadequate to socio- developing isattributable countries areas inurban of andvulnerability of risk Henderson [2004]revealed thatthislevel to increaselikely inmostplaces. climate andintensity changeis frequency populations to whose floodsand storms not, itisproofofurban ofthevulnerability inmuchofthis,factor buteven ifitwas toClimate have changeislikely beena 1 [World Bank Hot Spots: Dilley, Chen, Lerner-Lam et al, 2005] al, et Lerner-Lam Chen, Dilley, Spots: Hot Bank [World Fig. 1a. Economic losses from flood disaster Fig. 1b. Flood disaster mortality disaster 1b. Flood Fig. strategies on poverty reduction tend reduction tostrategies on poverty borders thatcurrent development onthefact The issueofclimate changeinNigeria alternative, well-located, safer sites. andbecauseofthelack opportunities their needto becloseto income-earning moving to lessdangerous sites, becauseof of constraintsinanyface serious possibility dwellersbuildings. low-incomeurban Most have noincentive to invest inbetter-quality to pay for housing–andtheirlandlords this are limited tenants,capacities withvery of provision. Ahighproportion and service preventsbuildings andoften infrastructure inhibits any investment inmore resilient land, which occupied orsub-divided 227.06.2013 14:24:10 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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8 82 SUSTAINABILITY 2 and the ability to recoverand theability from economic backgrounds dealwithmultiplestresses; ofhowhouseholdswithvarying intricacies communities istheunderstanding ofthe local level casestudies ofadversely affected to regain livelihoods. Oneofthebenefits of adapt to hazards floodandrainstorm and agencies, helpthemtohelp ofexternal made byhouseholds-withorwithout-the action. This studyhypothesizes thatattempts inmostdisasterneglected relief studiesand glossedover whichisoften or vulnerability ofhousehold factors the underlying natural dynamics. This requires addressing they accommodate thechanging socialand inaway that and designing interventions thatfamiliesarebuilding onactions taking offloodcanbefoundnegative impacts by this. Practical methodsfor minimizing weatherin extreme events willexacerbate climate changeandanticipated increases ofKwaraState. Global inmostparts poverty toand whichalsocontributes endemic the mostvulnerablepeopleincity withthepoorest being each year inIlorin anddroughtsrainstorms affect households metropolis.flood disasters inIlorin Floods, and ofrainstorm flooding amongthevictims andadaptationto closely thevulnerability regard thatthestudyexaminesmore isinthis ofthecountry. It in many parts to occurmore frequently withhighintensity disasters isfloodingwhichhascontinued change. prominent Most amongthese these weather related disasters to climate are weather related andstudieshave linked reveals thatmostoftherecent disasters lookatthesituationinNigeria A cursory facilities are grossly underutilized. to climate related disaster. warning Early to enablepreparednessof climate variability adequate information onseasonalforecast 2008, Gbadegesin,etal, 2010]. There isno related [Gwary, 2008,Kumuyietal, risk respond to climate changeandvariability to anticipate lackscapacity and country timedeepenspoverty. which often The continuously challengedbyclimate change strategies reduction areexisting poverty effect, the In climateoverlook changerisk. vulnerability to the impact ofextreme to theimpact vulnerability background ofpeople, socio-economic inthethat becauseofthevariation resources ontheother. isalsohypothesized It livelihoodof damagesto climate-sensitive or floodsontheonehand;severity storms occurrence events ofextreme like asadirectconsequenceofthe harmed injuredpeople to bekilled, orotherwise is understood to meanthetendencies of ofthispaper, thecontext In vulnerability adaptive capacity” [IPCC, 2001p. 995]. system isexposed,andits itssensitivity and rates to ofclimate whicha variation ofthecharacter,(it is)afunction magnitude andextremes.... including climate variability cope withadverse effects ofclimate change, which asystem issusceptibleto orunableto isdefinedasthe Vulnerability “degree, to inits (IPCC) (TAR),Third Assessment Report panelonClimateIntergovernmental Change weatherextreme events. According to the flood,conditions like erosion, andother or damageemanatingfrom environmental isthe exposureto harm andsusceptibility It origins.environmental orsocio-economic orstress of wounded from aperturbation ofthepopulationtoto be thecapability research. refers Simplydefinedvulnerability andintandemwiththeongoing variously is therefore defined often atitsinfancy the alterations. The studyofvulnerability producedpopulation to by theimpact ofthe had beenpaidto thevulnerability environment attention whileascanty to themechanicsofalterations inthe Climate research hadpaidgreater attention failures. realities andprevent policy thecharacteristic designing policiesthateasilyadjust to local thiswillassistin findings ofcasestudieslike in timeandspace. systems whichvary The and dynamicsofbothhumannatural This alsodepends, alot,ontheconditions createdand socialdisequilibria bytheevent. SOME CONCEPTUAL ISSUES TO EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS: AND ADAPTATIONVULNERABILITY 227.06.2013 14:24:10 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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8 networks andflowsofinformation, altruism, networks values andambition,social structures, assets (capitalandresources), cohesion, suchasavailableintention andcontext, ofthehousehold’saspects behavioural to thedecisionprocess.barriers This includes level are influencedbymotivators and responses thatcanoccuratthehousehold may beconstructed. According to them,the disturbances, includingclimate extremes, and copingwithmajorlivelihood model oftheways inwhichadaptation Thomas etal[2005]developed aconceptual were notanticipated orplannedfor. because suchchangesortheirmagnitude to adjustto accommodate thedeviations subsystems are found wantingandunable in climate thatmany ofthehumanandnatural deviations spontaneousandextreme during isonly ofmanand animals.population It causing hardship to thesurrounding conditionswithoutnecessarily the normal adjust to accommodate thedeviationsfrom and water resource managementoften health,transportation economic systems like average conditionsare common.Socialand spatial andtemporal deviations from annual systems rarely adapteasily. other words, In to whichhumanandnaturalvariations weather conditionspresent oneofthe 2001].Extreme andKasperson, [Kasperson in anticipationofchangesconditions climate. This canbespontaneousorplanned of systems to changesin projected oractual processespossible inpractice, orstructures to thedegree to whichadjustmentsare may bevulnerable. adaptation,we refer By crucial to thedegree to whichsuchsocieties ofhumansocietiesareadaptive capacity Based ontheabove, and thesensitivity landuses.and industrial ofsuchresidentialconjunction dwellings risks, butalsobecauseofthedangerous of peopleanddwellings produces itsown instance, notonlythattheconcentration for theresidents inmany respects. For may also precipitate increased vulnerability the nature ofcitiesindeveloping countries fromweather this, events alsovaries. Apart 3 purposes aswell astopurposes highlighthowthe bothfor policy adaptations isimportant successful andpotentially unsustainable is inevitablynormative innature, identifying actions. While theassessmentofadaptation should notreduce theoptionsfor future day andfuture climate for allinvolved, and reduce associated with present therisks notions thatsuccessfuladaptationsshould thereNevertheless, are widelyaccepted decisions withintheadaptationprocess. anddependsonwhoismaking and priorities involvesclearly judgement regarding values a normativeissue:thesuccessofadaptation is inany to any sense superior other. This is to identifywhetherany locationorpathway pathways.is issuethen into particular Akey lockthem by antecedent decisionsthatpartly economic andpoliticalenvironment butalso of course, constrainedbothbythewider degree to whichtheyare autonomous is, thems choose adaptationpathways andlocate and communitieshave someautonomy to Within theconceptual model, individuals whose livelihoods are nature based. adaptation process especiallyamongthose to examinetheirwiderrelevance to the andchange, inorderclimate variability in respectofrecent andcurrent historical of howpeoplebehave andhave learned elements withintheresponse spaceinterms is therefore to identifycritical It important future andto newcontexts, to beassessed. and theirpotential transferability, into the processes ofadaptationto beunderstood characteristics. This would allowthe identify whetheradaptationhasgeneric ofthepotentialbut alsointerms to only ofoutcomes (adaptationorcoping) not interms response spaceisimportant Identifying whatoccurs(andwhy) inthe political factors. socio- andexternal and otheropportunities, ofenvironmental interms context resources which isalsoaffected bythelocational placeinthe take actually ‘response space’ to Allthesecontribute what knowledge. and andindividualexperience self-efficacy, elves withintheadaptationspace. The 227.06.2013 14:24:10 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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8 84 SUSTAINABILITY 4 of asystem to: configurations anddisturbances, theability that measure, ofspecific inthecontext can beassessedthrough indicators related ofasystem, it to the properties here. Sinceresilience isatechnical term relevantecological systems are particularly insights into theresilience ofsocialand According to Thomas etal [2005],recent disaster prone areas. urban weatherextreme events, especiallywithin dimensionsofadaptationto of thevarious to understandings contribution important anfrom evidencecouldmake empirical upon localcircumstances. Thus, insights depending ofadoptionwillvary likelihood regional scale, adaptationsandtheir for asawhole, thesector atthelocalor mayby governments represent adaptations of climate change. initiatives While policy national levels to dealwiththeimpacts formulating policiesatnationalandsub- relevanceto dosomay in have particular distinguish copingfrom adaptation,since to considerifitispossibleto isimportant It [SmitandPilifosova,(disaster recovery) 2001]. preparedness) orspontaneousandreactive and planned(disaster can beanticipatory response to specificevents. Thus adaptations in anticipationofchange, in butagain,often onbehalfofsociety,governments sometimes by adaptationsmay beundertaken Other in response events. ofextreme to theimpact may adaptto climateadaptation. Individuals social agenciesinvolved intheprocess of There are geographical various scalesand the allocationofresources. over development,conflicts progress and amplifying, orpotentially resolving, existing issue ofadaptationcanbecomeacruciblefor
absorb shocksandretainabsorb isbasicfunction; institutions and networks; and institutions andnetworks; forself-organise, examplethrough social disturbances. in the faceofinnovate andlearn 1968]. The physical dev structure[Mabogunje,their dualisticinternal third asreputed citiesdescribed world for thereforeThe city of fallsinto thecategory predates colonialisminNigeria. history urban whose city traditionalAfrican isatypical Ilorin and socialdevelopment ontheother. human healthononehandandeconomic (sometimes significant) implicationsfor and physiographic possess characteristics to note thattheabove locational important is mean annualrainfallisabout125mm.It five hours average dailysunshine. The annual temperature isabout26,80°cwith seasons. wet anddry distinct The mean bya characterized tropical wet anddry [Adedibu, 1980]. The climate istherefore andtheSouthofcountry”the North asthe apt description “gate way” between the gave Ilorin the wet SouthofNigeria and North thedry between of thecity ofgrowthdirection ofthecity. The situation influenceonthe Asa isofparticular River Asa, Amule, Aluko, Okun, andAgba. The different species. The dominantstreams are is guineasavanna interspersed bytrees of of Nigeria. The vegetation, inmostparts, forest grassland Zone andthe Northern thesouthern adividebetween marking on latitude8°10’Nandlongitude 4°35’E is thesettingfor thisstudy. islocated The city ofKwaraState, thecapitalcity Nigeria, Ilorin, [Agrawal, 2002]. are to befacilitated inasustainablemanner organised (andhenceautonomous) actions inclusive andself- institutionsifcollective to requireadaptation islikely legitimate and togovernance beintegrated, sincearesilient contexts. Additionally, itallowstherole of acrossconsiderations ofvariables scalesand in ourconceptualmodel, whichallowsfor space within theadaptationandvulnerability recognises thatthere isnosinglepathway The benefitsofthisapproach are thatit adaptation thatincreases socialresilience board to definesuccessfuladaptationas on istaken Elements ofresilience theory THE STUDY AREA elopment of Ilorin elopment ofIlorin 227.06.2013 14:24:10 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 . 1 3
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8 in Ilorin, the study utilized both primary thestudyutilized bothprimary in Ilorin, adaptation methodsof flood victims order and toIn studythevulnerability livelihoods ofthepeople. andthe damagetoextensive properties hadtranslated intobecause theseverity increased inthelastfew years butalso because thenumberofsuchincidentshad intherecent pastnotonly cities inNigeria has madeitoneofthemostvulnerable Frequent andfloodinginIlorin rainstorms 2 isamapofKwaraState showingIlorin. above.changes inpopulationdescribed Figure natural increase hadcombinedto produce the on and themultipliereffects ofthesefactors commercial/industrial economy the modern development of ofurbanization, The facts by theyear 2006attherate of2,84%annually. and aprojected populationofabout765,791 about 208,546in1963,532,088people1991 hasapopulationof inhabitants in1911,Ilorin population ofthecity. For instance, from 36,300 also translates into significant changeinthe 5 DATA AND METHODS Fig. 2. Map of Kwara State and the Study Area Study the and State Kwara of Map 2. Fig. households wasdueto thedisplacement of thisstudy. to reachThe inability allaffected for thepurpose the reconnaissance survey able to traceonly2100householdsduring 2007]. Outofthese, theresearchers were been affected bytheincidents[KWEMA, 4,012 householdswere to have reported buildings anddamageto About properties. metropolis. These effects includedcollapsed occurred thataffected differentofIlorin parts eventsepisodes offloodand/orrainstorm 2002and2007,atotalbetween of30 (KWEMA), Agency Management Emergency to theKwaraState officeoftheNational withinthecity.disaster victims According data,thefocusFor wasonthe theprimary under review. theperiod andfloodsduring rainstorms destroyedthat occupiedtheproperties by this, datawere form collected households the State 2002and2007.Aside between disaster incidentsin the detailsofvarious State office. includeThe datacollected Agency, Management Emergency Kwara were mainlyfrom collected theNational data. data and secondary The secondary 227.06.2013 14:24:11 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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8 86 SUSTAINABILITY 6 characteristics determined theimpacts determined characteristics to seehowhousingandneighbourhood flooding. Specifically, themodel wasdesigned ofhousesto and rainstorm the vulnerability model wastested to of seethedeterminants Furthermore, amultiplelinearregression amongthewards.severity (seefigure 3). inflooding/rainstorm the spatialvariation (GIS) generated mapwasusedto show where geographic information systems was organized according to wards from affected andflooding, byrainstorm thedata NEMA inrespectofthenumberbuildings into 20wards. Usingthedataobtainedfrom suburban. subdivided These areas are further inner city, frontier native areas andthe cultural andeconomicareas: theestates, istraditionallydividedinto 4socio- Ilorin characteristics. nature ofownershipandneighbourhood used for thefloor, ofdwelling and type wall, for material external theroof, materials usedformaterial ofthe theconstruction victims’ housesincludingageofthebuilding, ofthe onthecharacteristics collected of climate changesissues. Datawere flooding incidents, andtheirunderstanding of thecausesfrequent and rainstorms were abouttheir perceptionvictims asked their livelihood systems. Furthermore, the information on howthedisaster affected measures. The questionnaire alsoelicits incidents aswell astheiradaptation their copingmechanismswiththedisaster handingofthesituation, of government ofthevictims,theiropinion characteristics information onthesocio-economic to properties. The questionnaire elicited ofdamage houses to theextent determine on thespotassessmentofvictims’ and to theminadditionto oralinterviews A structuredquestionnaire wasadministered survey. thepreliminary during number ofhouseholdsthatwere located were sampled, representing 5%ofthetotal of five years. Thus, atotal of110households residents more thanoncewithinaperiod This ledto somehouseholdschanging their that followed andfloodevents. rainstorm NHD (Y) =b NHD (Y) The modelwasthenformulated asfollows: 0. 1 andotherwise water.borne Where isavailable itis avariable green areas, odour, healthfacilities, andpipe drainage, system, solidwaste collection include presence orabsenceoftarred roads, fromderived which composite ofvariables index(NQI)was quality Neighbourhood index. quality called theneighbourhood wereattributes aggregated into one variable were alsoused. The neighbourhood attributes neighbourhood characteristics, from house Apart the housequality). the wallandroof etc (theseconstitute of thebuildingssuchasage, for materials used for themodelwere thecharacteristics and flooding. The independentvariables number ofhousesaffected byrainstorm wasrepresenteddependent variable bythe andfloodingonhouses.of rainstorm The houses withinferior roofs; X stroyed; X where: Y (NHD)–Numberofhousesde- not surprising considering the fact thatmost thefact considering not surprising (40,0%) are above 50years ofage. Again, thisis oftherespondentsthe largest proportions thirds are above 36years ofage. Specifically, (86,37%).Also,are married more thantwo thirdsMore thantwo ofthoseinterviewed andreligiouslargely factors. to socio-cultural arehouseholds inthecity maleheadeddue thatmost thefact considering not surprising percentage ofrespondents (74,55%). This is shows thatmalesconstituted thehighest The results oftheanalysesprovided in Table 1 Respondents Characteristics of Socio-Economic X type older than20years; X + bX than concrete –blocks;X other withmaterials houses constructed RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS 3 (HIR) +b 5 (NQI) – eighbourhood quality. (NQI)–eighbourhood 1 (HTT) –Numberofhouses (HTT) 1 (HTT) +b (HTT) 4 (DT) b (DT) 2 5 2 (HCB)–Numberof (NQ) (HCB) + 3 (HIR)–Numberof 4 (DT) – Dwelling; –Dwelling; (DT) 227.06.2013 14:24:11 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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8 NEMA ofthe office showsthattheimpacts An analysisoftheDataobtained from Spatial Pattern ofFlooding/Rainstorm the household. of therespondents have mor With respectto thehouseholdsize, closeto 80% areas. urban intheNigerian neighbourhoods peculiar to situationsobtainedinmany similar engaged intheformal sector. This result isvery results thatonly9,10%oftherespondents are another 20,02%areisclearfrom traders.the It and (38,22%),28,21%farmers are artisans oftherespondents education.Most tertiary formal educationwhileonly14,57%have level ofeducationobtained, 16,37%have no arerainstorm oldpeople. With respectto the which are mostlyaffected often byflooding/ of theinhabitantscore/indigenous areas 7 Incidents inIlorin Incidents Household size Marital status Marital Occupation Occupation Education oi-cnmcCaatrsis rqec Percentage Frequency Characteristics Socio-economic Age Sex Table 1. Socio-Economic Characteristics of Respondents of Characteristics Table 1. Socio-Economic nmlyetrtrd54.55 5 Unemployment/retired ofra dcto 816.37 18 No formal education e than4pe 0adblw–– – 20 andbelow 0adaoe1 10.92 12 10 andabove ii evns1 9.10 10 Civil servants eodr 036.40 40 Secondary bv 04 40.00 44 Above 50 amn 128.21 31 Farming are 586.37 95 Married rmr 632.76 36 Primary rdn 220.02 22 Trading etay1 14.57 16 Tertiary eae2 25.45 28 Female ria 238.22 42 Artisan tes65.45 6 Others 65 834.55 25.45 38 28 36–50 21–35 ige98.18 9 Single –02 25.48 28 7–10 ae8 74.55 82 Male – 339.13 24.57 43 27 4–6 1–3 ople in ople in of the buildings in most parts of the city ofthecity of thebuildingsinmostparts that most thefact confirm the fieldfurther affected buildingsfrom from datacollected ofthe which discussesthecharacteristics to have higherimpacts. section The next people thatfuture incidentswillcontinue ofthe onthepart increased theanxiety materials. quality The existingsituationhas houses are alsotoo oldorare madeoflow either notavailable oroldandweak. The areThis isbecausebasicinfrastructures ofallenvironmentalmost atrisk emergencies. population andthepeopleintheseareas are byhigh areareas characterised ofthecity shouldbenoted thatthetraditional, coreIt ofthedisaster incidents.the severity damaged. Figure showing 3isamapofIlorin goingbythenumberofproperties city more inthetraditional, core areas ofthe disasterflooding/rainstorm incidentswere 227.06.2013 14:24:11 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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8 88 SUSTAINABILITY 8 at all. The housesare mostly multi family out ofwhichabout12,7%are notplastered floor,have their floormadewithearthen years. third More thantwo ofthe houses have brownish turned andfragile over the About 64,6%roofed with metalsheetswhich third withmudbricks. (37,3%)constructed more than30years ofage, more thanone more thanahalf(60%)ofthehousesare The results presented in Table 2showsthat ofdisasters. kinds vulnerable to various andhencetheyaregood materials highly shows thatthehousesare notofvery of thebuildi andflooding.rainstorm Arandomsurvey a buildingdirectlyaffects itsresistance to thatthestructureof thefact considering were collected. This databecomesimportant ofrespondents’Data ontheattributes houses Buildings Characteristics Affected of whenever theyoccur. orseverewithstands rainstorm flooding especially thecore, indigenousareas cannot Fig. 3. Map of Ilorin Metropolis showing the Severity of Floods and Rainstorm Intensity Rainstorm and Floods of Severity the showing Metropolis Ilorin of Map 3. Fig. ngs inthemostaffected areas for themodelis0,65whileR andflooding.rainstorm The ‘r’ valueobtained significantlycontribute to to vulnerability quality andneighbourhood characteristics and floodingshowsthatthehouse ofhousesto rainstormthe vulnerability model tested to of seethedeterminants The result ofthemultiplelinearregression core/indigenous areas. inthearea, especiallythe disasters strike more peopleare whenever exposedto risks house (35,5%). The implicationofthisisthat causing destruction to lives and properties to livescausing destruction andproperties Flooding andfirestorm from disasters, apart Impact of Flooding on Livelihood Systems the independentvariables. most tocontributed thisexplanationamong (ageofbuilding) coefficients showsthatHTT Furthermore, theunstandardized regression ofhousesto flooding.of vulnerability 43% to theexplanationofdeterminants contribute that theindependentvariables 3). (Table This result is interpreted to mean 2 is0,43 227.06.2013 14:24:11 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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8 9 Source: A006 N 665248–.9 2710.016 0.907 0.468 -2.751 0.295 0.775 0.906 0.120 –0.746 –0.594 1.089 0.291 0.120 0.030 –0.201 2.408 0.091 0.029 0.669 0.793 –6.625 8.001Е-02 0.863 0.494 6.058 –0.592 * Dependent Variable: VAR00007 NHD. 5.927Е-02 0.251 VAR00006 NQ 6.595 VAR00004 DT VAR00003 HIR VAR00002 HCB VAR00001 HTT 1 (Coystant) Materials for wall Materials External Age ofbuilding(years) Materials forMaterials theroof Nature ofownership Material forMaterial thefloor Type ofdwelling Authors’ Analysis. Model Characteristics FrequencyCharacteristics Percentage tes43.64 16.38 40.95 16.38 39.13 4 18 6.37 32.76 45 35.49 18 9.10 43 10.92 16.38 1.82 12.74 Others 60.06 36 15.47 Rented house 7 39 Family owned 10 64.61 occupied Owner 12 18 Others 0.91 9.10 Rooms inalarge dwell 37.31 2 14 66 Separate apartment 59.15 17 Multi familyhouse 2.73 house Detached 71 flUnplastered earthen oor flPlastered earthen 1 oor 10 Concrete 41 65 Tile thatch Mood 3 Tiles sheets Metal Asbestos sheets Wood logs Mud bricks Concrete plates Bricks Unstandardized Coeffi Table 2. Characteristics of Aff of Characteristics Table 2. 2adaoe1 13.65 15 42 andabove t.ErrBeta Std. Error B 14 146.41 25.48 10.92 51 28 12 31–40 21–30 11–20 –043.63 4 1–10 Table Coeffi 3. cietns cients* ected ected Buildings Standardized Coeffi cietns Sig. t 227.06.2013 14:24:11 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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9 90 SUSTAINABILITY 0 Asa, Aluko and Amule- thethree dominant andAmule- Asa, Aluko vegetable around farming thefloodplainsof Frontier Native areas dependonirrigated and A numberofwomen intheinner city organisations ontime. non-governmental easier ifrelief comesfrom and government post disaster adjustmentwould have been ofdisaster impact”. aspect worrisome The According to him,thisisthesingularmost continue withone’s meansoflivelihood”. it becomesdifficult,ifnotimpossible, to one’s healthisaffected bydisaster incidents, According to oneofthevictims, “when well astheattendant psychological trauma. health problems as includingbodilyinjuries the disasters are associated withanumberof ofthoseaffected.proportions Furthermore, which, incidentally, constituted thehighest amongthetradersandartisans activities for sometime, itslowsdowneconomic supplyis unavailable that whenelectricity shouldbenoted It those inthesuburban. washed away onfarms, especiallyamong staled,occupation ofthevictims andcrops areas for months, trading, oneofthemajor insome ofelectricity caused destruction some respondents, theincidentsgenerally dimension. For instance, aslamented by health problems appearto bethemajor livelihood systems, and pauperisation disastersand rainstorm have eroded their ways bywhichtheflooding the various situation amongthevictims. When asked have compoundedtheexistingpoverty to livelihoods systems would beseento study focused on. The damageordestruction whichthis been thecasewithvictims livelihood systems ofthevictims. This has can alsocausesignificant damageto oenetdntos2 21.31 4.91 23.7 9.01 41.00 26 6 29 11 50 * Multiplesources ofcopingmentionedbyrespondents. Government donations Borrowing from banks Borrowing from localmoneylenders from andrelatives friends Support Personal savings Table 4: Coping Mechanisms employed byVictims employed Mechanisms Table Coping 4: Frequency* Percent and lack of modern equipmentto respondand lackofmodern problem hasbeenintheareas offunding inrecent years.occurred inNigeria Amajor and managing disasters thathad thevarious (NEMA) isincapableofresponding promptly with disaster management inNigeria charged thattheagency an accepted fact is the level It ofdisaster response inNigeria. suffered bythevictims. This callsto question measure any closerto thedegree ofimpacts didnotcomeontimeandit support saidthe most ofthem,many ofthevictims camefor Even support though government ofthedisaster.with theimmediate impacts cope way ofthevictims large proportion and personalsavings accounted for the from andrelativeslarge, friends support presented in Table 4showsthatbyand and theadjustmentprocess. The results disaster oftheflooding/rainstorm impact howtheycopedwiththeimmediate asked etal,Satterthwaite 2007). wereThe victims such aslocalwater andfood supplies(see resourcesdependent onclimate-sensitive limited adaptive capacities, andare more areas.in high-risk They tend to have more thoseconcentrated vulnerable, inparticular Poor communitiescanbeespecially CopingMechanisms Employed by Victims entrenching theregime ofpoverty. economy isnotdiversified andthus women’sworsen thissituation,poorurban allover.months whentheycanstart To rendered unemployed for upwards ofthree flooded for alongtimeafter. Women are arefarms washedaway andthelandremain metropolis. floodevents, During vegetable ofthe streams thatflow inmostparts 227.06.2013 14:24:11 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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9 among theold. such asmove. This wasespeciallytrue said thattheyhave never contemplated those intheworse hitareas, many ofthem relocate from theirpresent areas especially would bewillingto ifthevictims when asked rebuilding ofsomethehouses. However, houses intheindigenousareas orcomplete includereinforcementthe victims ofthe measuresThe longterm proposed by to more than70%ofthem. respondents. It’s somethingthat isstrange no mentionofinsuranceamongthe money inthebanks. There is, however, their culture bykeeping to imbibebanking avoid losses. heavy Somealsohave decided therainingseasontogoods instock during toodecided notto muchoftheir keep have those whoare tradersandartisans Furthermore, especially someofthevictims are currently non-existent. would have to becausethey beconstructed the core, indigenousareas, drainagechannels free rainfall. heavy flowofwater during Butin have ofthecity to beopenedto allow parts Secondly, drainagechannelsinthemodern system tocollection avoid drainageblockage. and inthecore areas, introductionofwaste improvement system inthewaste collection measures term include Immediate, short measures. andthelongterm term the short broadtwo measures are required. These are would needorare currently usingreveals that onadaptationsmeasuresthe victims they with how to adaptto theproblems. Interviews difficult to elicitinformation from themon aboutclimate changeissues,victims itbecame of Given theexistinglowlevel ofknowledge and Flooding Disasters inIlorin AdaptationMeasures to Rainstorm as presented in Table 4 s coping mechanismsemployed byvictims to repair orrebuild damagedproperties. The especially thosethathadto dowithmaterials get relief sixmonths untilafter materials manysome ofthevictims, ofthemdidnot to disasters inthecountry. According to 1 addressing the causes of vulnerability in addressing thecausesofvulnerability response approach to focus increasingly on awayshould shift from this traditional the city, inotherareas justlike inNigeria, that disaster management response in theargument is someevidenceto support alone. relief humanitarian interventions There disasters shouldn’t bedealtwiththrough not consistently implemented) that seemsincreasingly accepted (although It ofthepoor.vulnerability less effective and thusare increasing the indigenous copingstrategies lessand trendsof theselong-term are rendering withstand disaster shocks. Also, many fragile livelihood systems struggleto may becomelesseffective asincreasingly coping mechanismsemployed bythepoor The studyrevealed thattheindigenous they struggleto cope. responses whichtheyemployover timeas livelihood systems andthesequenceof ontheirhighlycomplex as disasters impact strategies adopted bypoorneighbourhoods poor.urban examined insomedetailthe It climate changeinduceddisasters amongthe of vulnerability, copingandadaptationto issue outtheimportant This studybrings and to improve governance. oncity togovernment enforce buildingregulations area. Butmore importantly, there isneedfor andespeciallyintheindigenous the city of the existingweak structuresinmostparts inreinforcing andthenonvictims the victims both wouldgovernment needto support systemwaste inthecity. collection The ofthecity, improvedchannels inallparts ofdrainage measures include construction Such offloodingandrainstorm. and impacts remote thatexercabate factors theintensity to putin placemeasures to reduce the local level mustcomein.governmentneed This iswhy atthestate government and may hinderany ofsuchmeasures.poverty measures may seem,theexistinglevel of As easyassomeoftheseadaptation CONCLUSION 227.06.2013 14:24:11 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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2 91 SUSTAINABILITY 4 : 1 1 ggi213.indd 92 i 2 1 3 . i n d d
9 92 SUSTAINABILITY 2 . Gwary, D. (2008) “Climate Change, Agriculture”. Food andNigerian Security Paper Presented 3. at Dilley, U., M.,Chen,R.S.,Deichmann, Lerner-Lam, A.,Arnold, M.,2005.NaturalDisaster Hotspots. 2. Adedibu, A.A(1980) “Spatial Pattern inthe ofHousingModernisation Traditional Area of 1. with sufficientevidence, thatclimate will studiesindicate, Most floods inNigeria. toadaptive live capacity withrecurring from to developing beingpainfulvictims capableoftransitingvictims interventions useful indesigning appropriate institutional The result to ofthestudyisexpected be reducing vulnerability. and isthuslimited ineffectiveness intruly oflocalpeople andpriorities knowledge intoto accounttheviews, take capacities, time. However, thisapproach generallyfails not even beprovided attheappropriate as infrastructuredevelopment whichmay mainly through technical solutionssuch physical problem whichcanbeaddressed vulnerable people. isseenasa Vulnerability maintenance ofsustainablelivelihoods by adeeperanalysisbasedonthe fails to make andgenerally as pooraccessto services, only thevisiblesigns ofvulnerability, such However, theapproach tends to address order to mitigate theeffects ofdisaster. 7. Satterthwaite David,Satterthwaite Pelling, Saleemul Huq, Mark HannahReidandPatricia Romero 7. ofLondon University Press. inNigeria. Mabogunje, A.L.(1968)Urbanisation 6. 5 Kumuyi,A.J., A.Adesanya andF. Olorunfemi (2008) 5. “Climate ChangeAdaptation Pro- Henderson,L.J. (2004) andPublic Pervasive in Risk Bureaucracy andDisaster: “Emergency 4. REFERENCES gerian Institute of Social and Economic Research, Ibadan, held at NISER, Ibadan, 19 heldatNISER,Ibadan, of SocialandEconomicResearch, Institute Ibadan, gerian the National Workshop organised ontheChallengesofClimate Changesfor bytheNi- Nigeria Analysis. A GlobalRisk The HazardWorld Unit, Management Bank, Washington, DC. Ilorin”. Nig. Geog. Jour. 23(1–2).p. 147–161. straints in low- and middle-income nations”straints inlow-andmiddle-income HumanSettlementsDiscussionPaper Series. (2007) Lankao “Adapting to Areas Climate ChangeinUrban The possibilitiesandcon- at NISER, Ibadan, 19 at NISER,Ibadan, held ofSocialandEconomicResearch, Institute Ibadan Organisedgeria. bytheNigerian Paper Presented attheNational Workshop ontheChallengesofClimate Changefor Ni- grammes andProjects: andEvaluation”. Monitoring for Mechanisms Implementation, Nations”.Developing AGlobalJournal Public OrganizationVol. Review: 4pp. 103–119. th –20 th , May. underlying longer-term climateunderlying trends. to reducealsoreflectthe vulnerability prediction datato ensure thatstrategies aswell climate aslongerterm variability to enablethepreparedness to climate require information onseasonalforecast will ofNigeria the response-capability poor’s Increasing exposure to climate risk. options thatare available to decrease the household-level andmacro response and greater understandingofboth should berooted analysis invulnerability live. Strategies to reduce vulnerability inwhich poorpeopleinstitutional context growth andimproving and thegovernance reducing vulnerability, achievingequitable response-capable. This requires afocus on to become istaken eradication unlessaction to worsen likely for theprospects poverty The are climate changeandvariability human livelihood. implications ontheenvironment and continue to changewithfarreaching th –20 th , May. 227.06.2013 14:24:11 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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9 . ThomasDavid, Henny Osbahr, Chasca Twyman, NeilAdger andBruceHewitson(2005) 9. Smit,B., O.Pilifosova, B. Challenger, I.Burton, G. S.Huq, R.Klein, Yohe. (2001) 8. ‘Adaptation 3 widely inreputable research localandinternational journals. FellowsGovernance www.earthsystemgovernance.org/people/. Hehaspublished Network. is currently theRegional Coordinator (Africa), withFelix B. Olorunfemi, System for theEarth Geographers (ANG). andAssociation He ofNigerian and Research inIncome Wealth (IARIW) for Association Society Ecologicalfor Economics(ISEE),International USA, International for Areas, Health, Society in Urban Urban China,2012.HeisamemberoftheInternational sustainable adaptation in selected informal settlements in the City ofCape informalsustainable adaptationinselected settlementsintheCity Town. 4 th International International Training Workshop onGlobalEnvironmental ChangeandHumanHealth for Climate ChangeResearch Technical 3. Report ies inthedeveloping climate across world: gradient”. African theSouthern Tyndall Centre “ADAPTIVE:Adaptations societ- to climate changeamongstnaturalresource-dependant Cambridge, UKandNew York, USA. Panel oftheIntergovernmental Report onClimate Press, Change, University Cambridge Adaptation and Vulnerability, of Contribution GroupWorking IIto the Third Assessment O. Canziani,N.Leary, andK. D.White (eds.), Climate Change2001:Impacts, Dokken, to ofsustainable development climate changeinthecontext andequity.’ J. In McCarthy, Felix B. Olorunfemi Usman A. 2010. The fellowship focused project and onfloodrisks Cape Town, Climate Systems AnalysisGroup, in South Africa Change Fellowship Programme (ACCFP) of intheUniversity Training (START), Washington Climate DC,undertheAfrican awarded byGlobalChangeSysTems Analysisfor Research and ProjectGovernance andexecuted afellowship programme Dakar, Senegal. HeisalsoaResearch Fellow System oftheEarth ofSocialScienceResearchDevelopment (CODESRIA), inAfrica in2004withfundingassistancefrom theCouncil forNigeria the He obtainedhisPhD inGeography from ofIbadan, theUniversity andEconomic ResearchNigerian InstituteofSocial Challenges–Norway,(BSRS) onGlobalDevelopment 2009and Workshop 2008,Bergen –NewDelhi, SummerResearch School (IHDP) –Germany, 2005,5 (6 workshops inseveral conferences international participated andtraining health, climate analysis. changeandDisaster Risk Hehas broad area ofmedicalgeography withemphasisonUrban years ofteaching andresearch. research His interests cover the where hehasputinmore Nigeria than15 ofIlorin, University
Raheem Raheem th International Human DimensionsProgramme International (PhD) isaSenior Research Fellow atthe (PhD) teaches humangeography atthe th International Human Dimensions International (NISER), Ibadan. (NISER),Ibadan. 227.06.2013 14:24:11 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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9 94 News and Reviews 4 Exploration,mining, anddevelopment of – andforecasting Monitoring ofthestate – 7, 2011): approved bythePresidential Decree ofJuly technologies(the Listofcritical was technologies critical defined bythree key the area ofenvironmental management are ofS& The maindirections T forecasting in of Environmental Development.” with theplatformconnected “Technologies are activities State (MSU).Its University attheLomonosovfunctioning Moscow Center onenvironmental managementis offorecastsupport activities.AForesight Russian universities to provide expert areas hasbeenestablishedattheleading ofS& network T Foresight Centers onthese environmental 2011,a management.In and communicationtechnology, and newmaterials, informationtransport, of Russia,i.e. energy efficiency, medicine, scientific andtechnological development of foresight areas focuses of onsixpriority of theRussianFederation. The third cycle in strategic managementofdevelopment results thebasisfor theforecast integration implemented. considerits Stakeholders targets development in 2030isbeing ofS& the third cycle T foresight that Education andScienceonlyin2007.Now, of Russia itwasinitiated bytheMinistry of S& T foresight washeld in1994; for example, intheUK, thefirstcycle If in Russiaisquite anewphenomenon. Science and Technology FORESIGHT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
mineral deposits; mitigation ofitspollution; of theenvironment, prevention and
(S & T) foresight(S & T) 2030 IN 2030 IN RUSSIA: IdentificationofS& T areas where Russia – Identificationandanalysisofperspective – ofthemostperspective Description – Analysisofglobalandnationalchallenges – management are: forecasting inthearea ofenvironmental ofthesystemThe majorobjectives ofnational are shownintheFigure 1. withintheMSUforesightactivities network the real oftheeconomy. sector The main scientific organizations, of andenterprises with otherhighereducationalinstitutions, universities havenetwork closecontacts and someothers, 13universities intotal. The Federal University, Perm State University, Hydrometeorological University, Kazanskiy Belgorod State University, RussianState University, BalticFederal I.Kant University, includes The network Tomsk State technologies. critical competences inthekey asthecenters ofuniversities thatserve oftheleadingRussianof thenetwork The MSUForesight Center isthecoordinator Prevention andmitigationofnatural –
has leadingorequalpositions withthe (alone orincooperation); for development inthefuture, inRussia that willbemostpromising services and andnichesofproducts markets segments; the emergence ofnewmarket components thatmay bethedriversfor thematic areas andtheirtechnology for S& T; and trends, and windowsofopportunities technogenic emergencies. 227.06.2013 14:24:11 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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9 mentioned activities wastheidentification mentioned activities One oftheoutcomes oftheabove- activities. were invited inresearch to participate workshops, etc. Approximately 300experts panels, brainstorming, surveys,expert different foresight procedures, including in hasparticipated community the expert 2011–2012, During 350 leadingexperts. institutions andcompaniesmore than includesmore than250 network expert for theMSUCenter. Now, thenational positions are amongthemostimportant formation community issues oftheexpert intheforesightstakeholders process, the requires andthe theinvolvement ofexperts Because theForesight methodology ontheprospectsfor Recommendations – 5
cooperation intheS& T area. spots” or lagsinsomeareas; developed countries, aswell asof “white Fig. 1. The main activities of the MSU Foresight Center on environmental management environmental on Center Foresight MSU the of activities 1. main Fig. The safe waste disposaltechnologies, and growth, development ofenvironmentally the Arctic, oilandnatural gasproduction the economy, accelerated development of are asfollows: greeningopportunities of trends for Russiathatopenwindowsof wereAgency alsoanalyzed. crucial Most UNEP, OECD, andEuropean Environmental forecasts andforesight studiesdone by State Programs. Numerous international RussianStrategiesanalysis ofvarious and challenges wasdeveloped basedon social, technological, andenvironmental The listof38mosturgent economic, in thearea ofenvironmental management. scientific andtechnological development emerging trends willshapethefuture of Russia’s to managechallengesand ability development ofrelevant strategies. inorderperspective to support to beidentifiedfrom thepolicymakers’ to theenvironment inRussia. They have emerging trendsmost important, related ofglobalchallengesandthe and ranking 227.06.2013 14:24:11 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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9 96 News and Reviews 6 of opportunities may appearcloseto 2020, of opportunities thatthreats andwindows thefact Despite threat orpresent newopportunities. itcanbeeitherain themediumterm, however term; threat to Russiaintheshort losses,biodiversity etc. Climate changeisa population,climate change,of theurban from airpollution,increase and mortality near future, including:increased morbidity create significant threats to Russiainthe number oftrends, according to theexperts, climate andecosystems. Atthesametime, a systems for modelingandpredictionof technologies andinformation storage development ofsupercomputing management. in thearea ofsustainableenvironmental emerging system ofnationalforecasting asthefoundation forwill serve the oftheleadinguniversities,the network The MSUForesight Center, together with Russian Federation. ofScienceandEducationthe Ministry innovation policiesimplemented bythe challenge for science, technology, and now. be undertaken This isanimportant ofresponse measures musta package Nina N.Alekseeva 227.06.2013 14:24:11 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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9 we encourage the authors to submit their photos and short CVs.we encouragetheauthorsto submittheirphotos andshort 4. isto includeinformation style abouttheauthor(s) ofanarticle. The GESJournal Therefore author willbepublished, unlessrequested otherwise. should beidentifiedasa addresses fax numbersande-mail to theappropriatelinked institutionsbytheuseof1,2,3etc superscript. theredone. ismore If thanoneinstitutioninvolved authors’ inthework, namesshouldbe and fullpostaladdress (includingpostalcode)ofthe each author, otherforenames beinggiven asinitialsfollowed andthename bythesurname) areto indicate asked their 3. Allauthorsofanarticle may beused. Papers inFrench are accepted Board. underthedecisionofEditorial 2. Papers are Englishspellingandpunctuation orAmerican accepted inEnglish.EitherBritish arematerials accepted Board. underthedecisionofEditorial published to Earlier thescopeofJournal, reviews articles. (onlysolicited) andbrief 1. Authors are scientificpapersaccording encouragedto submithigh-quality, original work: sustainable development. environment andhealth;educationfor andbiodiversity; problems; nature conservation informatics andenvironmental mapping;oilandgasexplorationenvironmental sustainable regional development; appliedgeographical andenvironmental studies;geo- global andregional environmental andclimate change;environmental regional planning; management; environment and natural resources; human(economicandsocial)geography; environmental science;fundamentals ofsustainabledevelopment; environmental there ofthejournal areAmong themainthematicsections basicsofgeography and environmental science. welcome, aswellare asthosedealingwithfieldstudiesinthe sphere particularly of geography etc. Publications thatare interdisciplinary, theoretical andmethodological education for sustainabledevelopment, GIStechnology, cartography, socialandpolitical geographers, ecologists, naturalresource specialistsinenvironmental use, conservation, changing world. Publications are ofthejournal aimedatforeign andRussianscientists– sphere ofgeography, andsustainabledevelopment inthe environmental conservation aims atinforming andcoveringtheresults ofresearch andglobalachievements inthe The scientificEnglishlanguagejournal “GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY” 7 GENERAL GUIDELINES AIMS AND SCOPE OF THE JOURNAL ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY” CONTRIBUTING TO “GEOGRAPHY, FOR AUTHORSINSTRUCTIONS Corresponding Author oftheauthorscouldbepublishedaswell. Oneauthor . address ofthecorresponding The e-mail establishment(s) names (withoneforename in fullfor where was thework Telephone and 227.06.2013 14:24:11 7 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 3
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