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RUSSIAN GEOGRAPHICAL SOCIETY FACULTY OF GEOGRAPHY, LOMONOSOV MOSCOW STATE UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE OF GEOGRAPHY, RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES No. 03 [v. 07] 2014 GEOGRAPHY ENVIRONMENT SUSTAINABILITY ggi314.inddi314.indd 1 229.09.20149.09.2014 113:01:283:01:28 EDITORIAL BOARD EDITORSINCHIEF: Kasimov Nikolay S. Kotlyakov Vladimir M. Vandermotten Christian Lomonosov Moscow State Russian Academy of Sciences Université Libre de Bruxelles, University, Faculty of Geography, Institute of Geography, Belgium 03|2014 Russia Russia 2 GES Tikunov Vladimir S. (Secretary-General) Kroonenberg Salomon Lomonosov Moscow State University, Delft University of Technology Faculty of Geography, Russia Department of Applied Earth Sciences, Baklanov Alexander The Netherlands Danish Meteorological Institute, Kulmala Markku Denmark University of Helsinki, Division of Baklanov Petr Ya. Atmospheric Sciences, Finland Russian Academy of Sciences, Malkhazova Svetlana M. Pacific Institute of Geography, Russia Lomonosov Moscow State University, Chubarova Natalya E. Faculty of Geography, Russia Lomonosov Moscow State University, Meadows Michael E. Faculty of Geography, Russia University of Cape Town, Department Chalkley Brian of Environmental and Geographical Sciences University of Plymouth, UK South Africa De Maeyer Philippe Nefedova Tatyana G. Ghent University, Russian Academy of Sciences, Department of Geography, Belgium Institute of Geography, Russia Dobrolubov Sergey A. O’Loughlin John Lomonosov Moscow State University, University of Colorado at Boulder, Faculty of Geography, Russia Institute of Behavioral Sciences, USA Haigh Martin Pedroli Bas Oxford Brookes University, Wageningen University, Department of Social Sciences, UK The Netherlands Gulev Sergey K. Radovanovic Milan Russian Academy of Sciences, Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Institute of Oceanology, Russia Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijić”, Guo Huadong Serbia Chinese Academy of Sciences, Solomina Olga N. Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences, China Institute of Geography, Russia Jarsjö Jerker Tishkov Arkady A. Stockholm University, Department of Russian Academy of Sciences, Physical Geography and Quaternary Institute of Geography, Russia Geology, Sweden Wuyi Wang Kolosov Vladimir A. Chinese Academy of Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Institute of Geography, Russia Natural Resources Research, China Konečný Milan Zilitinkevich Sergey S. Masaryk University, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Faculty of Science, Czech Republic Finland ggi314.inddi314.indd 2 229.09.20149.09.2014 113:01:283:01:28 CONTENTS GEOGRAPHY Artem S. Lukyanetz, Nguyen Canh Toan, Elena E. Pismennaya, Sergei V. Ryazantsev, 03|2014 Vladimir S. Tikunov, Pham Hoang Hai VIETNAMESE MIGRATION IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE . 4 Nella A. Shpolyanskaya 3 GES FORMATION AND EVOLUTION OF THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC CRYOLITHOZONE ON THE SHELF AND THE CONTINENT IN THE PLEISTOCENEHOLOCENE . 22 Valentin N. Golosov, Xinbao Zhang, Tang Qiang, Ping Zhou, Xiubin He QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF SEDIMENT REDISTRIBUTION IN THE SICHUAN HILLY BASIN AND THE CENTRAL RUSSIAN UPLAND DURING THE PAST 60 YEARS . 39 ENVIRONMENT Daniel Karthe, Nikolay S. Kasimov, Sergey R. Chalov, Galina L. Shinkareva, Marcus Malsy, Lucas Menzel, Philipp Theuring, Melanie Hartwig, Christian Schweitzer, Jürgen Hofmann, Jörg Priess, Mikhail Lychagin INTEGRATING MULTISCALE DATA FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF WATER AVAILABILITY AND QUALITY IN THE KHARAA ORKHON SELENGA RIVER SYSTEM . 65 Dharmaveer Singh, Rajan D. Gupta, Sanjay K. Jain STUDY OF LONGTERM TREND IN RIVER DISCHARGE OF SUTLEJ RIVER NW HIMALAYAN REGION . 87 Alexander F. Finaev THE MODEL OF DUST AEROSOL ACCUMULATION IN TAJIKISTAN . 97 SUSTAINABILITY Vyacheslav L. Baburin, Sofia A. Gavrilova, Peter Koltermann, Yury G. Seliverstov, Sergey A. Sokratov, Aleksandr L. Shnyparkov QUANTIFICATION OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RISKS OF DEBRIS FLOWS FOR THE BLACK SEA COASTAL REGION OF THE NORTHERN CAUCASUS . 108 NEWS AND REVIEWS Vladimir Kolosov IGU REGIONAL CONFERENCE IN KRAKOW . 123 Arkady Tishkov CONSERVATION OF BIODIVERSITY IN RUSSIA . 125 ggi314.inddi314.indd 3 229.09.20149.09.2014 113:01:283:01:28 Artem S. Lukyanetz1, Nguyen Canh Toan2, Elena E. Pismennaya3, Sergei V. Ryazantsev4, Vladimir S. Tikunov5*, Pham Hoang Hai6 1 Center for Social Demography and Economic Sociology (Institute for Socio- Political Studies); Moscow, 119991, Leninskyi prospect, 32-a, Russia; Tel +7 499 530 28 84, e-mail: [email protected] 2 Institute for European Studies, VASS; Hanoi, Thanh Suan, Bui Siong Chak, 358/57B, Vietnam; Tel: 84 4 3537 0811, e-mail: [email protected] 3 Department of Theoretical Sociology, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation; Moscow, 125993, Leningradskyi prospect, 49, Russi; Tel: +7 (499) 943-95-77, e-mail: [email protected] GEOGRAPHY 4 Center for Social Demography and Economic Sociology (Institute for Socio- 4 Political Studies); Moscow, 119991, Leninskyi prospect, 32-a, Russia; Tel +7 499 530 28 84, e-mail: [email protected] 5 Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography; Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991, Russia; Tel: +7 495 9391339, e-mail: [email protected] * Coresponding author 6Institute of Geography VAST; Hanoi, Fam Van Dong, 06/24, Vietnam; tel: +084 4 3836 12 02, e-mail: [email protected] VIETNAMESE MIGRATION IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ABSTRACT. The paper examines emigration socio-political, economic (production), from Vietnam in the context of global climate natural resource, and environmental change. Vietnam is among the five countries, components for the integrated assessment most vulnerable to water level rise in the of the provinces of Vietnam. Simulation of oceans associated with global warming. events shows that the flood zone could affect The areas of potential flooding include such populated provinces as An Giang, Kien territories with most dense population and Giang, Hau Giang, Dong Thap, Long An, Tien are extremity important for the economy Giang, Vinh Long and Can Tho. To address of Vietnam. The country has a significant this problem, the Vietnamese authorities, demographic potential exceeding 90 mln in 2008, approved the state target program people. Vietnamese migration has a relatively to respond to climate change. The Ministry long history. Large Vietnamese communities of Natural Resources and Environment have grown in the countries of Eastern was commissioned to create a scenario of Europe; these communities are relatively well climate change and sea level rise in Vietnam. integrated into the host countries. Increase However, the problem requires an immediate in global mean temperatures could lead to response at the international level, as the severe storms, tsunamis, and flooding and threat cannot be localized within the borders force significant portion of the population of Vietnam. Flooding may require mandatory out of the Mekong Delta regions and Central relocation of the population in the country provinces of Vietnam. The paper discusses and, possibly, beyond its borders. If people the potential of Atlas Information Systems are not relocated gradually, a reduction in (AISs) for the assessment of social-economic the country’s territory with high population and demographic consequences of climate density, considering the specifics of the change in Vietnam. The authors describe an settlement pattern and reproduction trends, AIS they are developing. This AIS consists of could result in a significant migration blocks that provide for a close link between flow of forced migrants – environmental ggi314.inddi314.indd 4 229.09.20149.09.2014 113:01:283:01:28 refugees. The territory of Vietnam may not and by V.A. Vladimirov, N.N. Dolgin, and be sufficient to absorb the entire flow of V.A. Makeev in “Global problems as a source immigrants and, as a result, the flow would of emergenc y situations” [Vladimirov, Dolgin, be directed out of the country. However, Makeev, 2012]. M.I. Faleev (in: “Improving the if the resettlement program starts now in protection of the population and territories, the form of organized labor migration, it considering the experience of dealing with may be possible to anticipate and mitigate large-scale disasters and natural emergency the negative scenario. Besides, organized situations”) [Faleev, 2012] and V.A. Vladimirov labor emigration would be even beneficial (in: “Disasters and socio-economic for Vietnam in the socio-economic respect. development”) address only isolated aspects GEOGRAPHY The paper suggests measures to improve of socio-economic impacts in the context Russia’s migration policy aimed at attracting of disaster prevention and protection of 5 and using Vietnamese workers in a regulated the population of countries and territories way that would benefit Russia socially and from climate risk [Vladimirov, 2012]. Despite economically. the significance of these works, they are completely lacking in-depth analysis of KEY WORDS: Vietnam, emigration, global the impact of global climate change on warming, Vietnamese communities in host demographic processes, as well as of the countries, Atlas Information Systems, Eastern behavior and way of life of the population Europe, Russia, migration policy, integration. living in areas of potential threats. INTRODUCTION In recent years, the studies of specific situations in regions and countries that face The vast majority of scientific papers on maximal risks from global climate change global warming are devoted to the become
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