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Semiconductor Newsletter Q4'07 Final

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Semiconductor Newsletter Q4'07 Final SEMICONDUCTOR SECTOR REPORT SAVVIAN, LLC 150 CALIFORNIA STREET, SAN FRANCISCO, CA 94111 | www.savvian.com | 415.318.3600 MARKET HIGHLIGHTS Inside this issue MARKETMARKET HIGHLIGHTSHIGHLIGHTS ON Semiconductor Corporation (NASDAQ:ONNN) and AMIS Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMIS) signed a definitive merger Market Highlights agreement providing for the acquisition of AMIS by ON Semiconductor in an all-stock transaction with an equity value of approximately $915 million. The deal furthers the transformation of ON Semiconductor into an analog and power solutions Summary Performance player by combining the company’s standard products and advanced manufacturing infrastructure with AMIS’s growing standard products business and substantial custom product portfolio. Observations Additionally, ON Semiconductor Corporation (NASDAQ:ONNN) acquired the CPU voltage regulation and PC thermal Trading Data monitoring business from Analog Devices, Inc. (NYSE: ADI) for total cash consideration of approximately $184 million. The divestiture is consistent with ADI's ongoing transition of its power management portfolio to high-performance products that Transaction Activity complement the company's portfolio of signal-processing solutions. Savvian Update STMicroelectronics (NYSE:STM) and Genesis Microchip Inc. (NASDAQ:GNSS) announced that they have entered into a definitive agreement for STMicroelectronics to acquire Genesis Microchip in a cash transaction valued at approximately $336 million. The acquisition bolsters STMicroelectronics’ strategy to become a strong System-on-Chip (SoC) technology provider to the rapidly growing digital television and display markets. Several semiconductor companies competed initial public offerings in Q4’07 including Memsic (NASDAQ:MEMS), Rubicon (NASDAQ:RBCN), Entropic (NASDAQ:ENTR), Intellon (NASDAQ:INTL) and u-box (SWF:UBXN). Since their respective IPO’s, the market newcomers have outperformed composite industry trends and are up over ten percent on average. San Francisco Office SUMMARY Q4 STOCK PERFORMANCE 150 California Street San Francisco, CA 94111 108 Phone: (415) 318-3600 104 New York Office 100 7 Times Square, -3.2% 96 Suite 2501 -4.9% New York, NY 10036 92 -9.9% Phone: (212) 999-7090 88 -12.0% Indexed Price Indexed Chicago Office 84 -15.8% 71 S Wacker Drive, -19.4% 80 Suite 1230 Chicago, IL 60606 76 Phone: (312) 212-8210 10/01/07 10/12/07 10/26/07 11/09/07 11/22/07 12/05/07 12/18/07 12/31/07 NASDAQ SOX IC IP & EDA Equipment Services & Materials OBSERVATIONS Activity in the Global Positioning Systems (GPS) segment remained robust in the 4 th quarter with the initial public offering of Swiss based u-blox (SWF:UBXN) as well as the December acquisitions of private GPS companies GloNav Inc. (by Dutch For further information, chipmaker NXP B.V. for $110 million) and u-Nav Microelectronics Corp. (by Atheros (NASDAQ:ATHR) for $55 million). please contact: GPS Technology was widely prioritized by strategic acquirers in 2007 as it became clear that attach rates into cell phones and other high volume consumer devices was quickly accelerating. Bryce Dakin The supply / demand imbalance in both DRAM and FLASH continued to depress the industry with additional and significant spot pricing compression. For DRAM, a gradual deceleration in PC memory density increases combined with Director continued strong bit supply growth has created an oversupply situation. This memory supply / demand imbalance and the Phone: (415) 318-3673 resulting capex cutbacks that it caused led to a very challenging environment for the capital equipment segment which has [email protected] grown to rely on memory as the driver of innovation and manufacturing investment. While the quarter saw a substantial amount of IPO pricing activity, institutional reception to the offerings was mixed signaling both a continued conservative stance toward the sector as well as direct pushback against smaller loss-making Mark Waissar companies going public. Managing Director Wireless was the strongest performing segment for 2007 with the index up 16% versus the SOX which was down 13%. Phone: (415) 318-3650 This distinction comes as no surprise given the continued strong push for mobility based systems with numerous air interface technologies. Conversely, the Processor segment was the worst performing segment due to the ongoing battle [email protected] between Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE:AMD). SEMICONDUCTOR SECTOR STOCK PERFORMANCE Sector 1 Month Sector 3 Month Sector 1 Year Wireless 2.9% Intellectual Property (5.7%) Wireless 16.0% EDA 2.5% Wireless (11.3%) Packaging / Testing Services 8.7% Analog / Linear 0.8% Wafer Processing Equipment (11.8%) Intellectual Property 1.4% Discretes 0.7% EDA (11.8%) Analog / Linear (3.6%) Intellectual Property (0.2%) Wafer and Materials (12.0%) EDA (7.3%) Metrology, Test and Packaging Equipment (0.5%) Metrology, Test and Packaging Equipment (13.6%) Discretes (9.2%) Memory (1.5%) Discretes (16.0%) Wafer Processing Equipment (11.4%) SOX (1.6%) PLD / ASIC (16.5%) Wafer and Materials (12.3%) Wafer and Materials (1.6%) Memory (16.7%) SOX (12.8%) PLD / ASIC (1.7%) Analog / Linear (17.3%) PLD / ASIC (15.2%) Packaging / Testing Services (3.4%) Packaging / Testing Services (18.6%) Foundries (19.4%) Multimedia (3.6%) SOX (19.4%) Memory (28.9%) Wafer Processing Equipment (5.3%) Multimedia (20.5%) Metrology, Test and Packaging Equipment (29.0%) Wireline (5.8%) Foundries (21.2%) Wireline (31.1%) Foundries (7.0%) Wireline (23.7%) Multimedia (31.4%) Processors (11.4%) Processors (26.7%) Processors (41.6%) Notes: Represents median price change for each category over specified time period. SOX represents index of semiconductor public companies. Q4 Best Performers – Large Cap Q4 Best Performers – S/M Cap LTM Best Performers – Large Cap LTM Best Performers – S/M Cap SunPower Corp. 50% Transmeta Corp 145% SunPower Corp. 251% Elan Micro 216% MEMC 40% Pericom 57% Aixtron AG 216% Echelon Corp 158% Aixtron AG 39% NextestSystems 56% MEMC 126% Adv. Analogic Tech 109% Dolby Laboratories 38% Ramtron Intl. 44% Sigma Designs 117% Weltrend Semi 108% Notes: Large Cap consists of companies with current market capitalization greater than $1Bn as of Dec 31, 2007. Small / Mid Cap consists of companies with current market capitalization between $100MM and $1Bn as of Dec 31, 2007. Q4 and LTM as of Dec 31, 2007. SEMICONDUCTOR SECTOR TRADING MULTIPLES Combined EPS Market AV / Revenue AV / EBITDA Price / EPS CY 07E Price / Long Term Revenue Growth Cap ($MM) CY 07E CY 08E CY 07E CY 08E CY 07E CY 08E PEG Book Growth 08E/07E Y/Y MRQ Median Multiples Processors $164,621 2.9 x 2.5 x 10.3 x 8.4 x 22.2 x 17.7 x 1.0 2.3 x 16.7% 16.8% 13.3% Wireless 121,735 2.2 x 1.7 x 11.6 x 9.7 x 18.9 x 15.7 x 0.9 2.6 x 20.0% 14.9% 3.2% Foundries 69,290 2.1 x 1.8 x 8.2 x 4.7 x 17.6 x 16.8 x 0.7 1.0 x 20.0% 17.3% 8.8% Wafer Processing Equipment 62,152 1.6 x 1.7 x 7.7 x 8.1 x 15.8 x 13.9 x 0.9 1.9 x 17.5% 4.9% (7.1%) Analog / Linear 62,040 3.0 x 2.6 x 12.5 x 9.5 x 20.7 x 17.7 x 1.1 2.9 x 17.5% 12.5% 3.2% Memory 47,988 0.8 x 0.8 x 7.9 x 7.8 x 29.7 x 18.4 x 1.5 1.3 x 14.5% 12.7% 3.0% Multimedia 46,348 1.2 x 1.0 x 7.6 x 6.6 x 16.0 x 14.0 x 0.7 1.5 x 20.0% 16.0% (1.1%) Wafer and Materials 41,554 1.3 x 1.2 x 8.9 x 7.9 x 22.0 x 18.4 x 0.9 1.5 x 17.5% 8.1% (10.0%) Wireline 33,397 1.9 x 1.8 x 17.9 x 13.9 x 30.2 x 22.2 x 1.1 2.1 x 20.7% 19.3% 3.4% PLD / ASIC 32,593 1.7 x 1.5 x 10.1 x 7.4 x 18.9 x 15.4 x 1.2 2.1 x 15.0% 7.5% (0.4%) Metrology, Test and Packaging Equipment 18,543 1.1 x 1.1 x 9.9 x 7.3 x 22.3 x 18.2 x 1.0 1.7 x 16.0% 11.0% (6.7%) Packaging / Testing Services 16,305 1.7 x 1.5 x 5.7 x 5.1 x 11.5 x 9.8 x 0.5 2.0 x 16.3% 13.7% 3.6% Intellectual Property 14,310 5.4 x 4.3 x 18.2 x 16.9 x 23.8 x 27.9 x 1.1 2.0 x 22.5% 21.9% (3.2%) Discretes 14,131 1.2 x 1.1 x 7.9 x 6.6 x 17.3 x 13.5 x 0.9 1.2 x 14.5% 7.8% 9.1% EDA 10,271 2.2 x 2.0 x 12.6 x 8.3 x 16.8 x 14.2 x 0.9 2.5 x 18.8% 11.2% 14.2% Mean 2.0 x 1.8 x 10.5 x 8.6 x 20.2 x 16.9 x 1.0 1.9 x 17.8% 13.0% 2.2% Median 1.7 x 1.7 x 9.9 x 7.9 x 18.9 x 16.8 x 0.9 2.0 x 17.5% 12.7% 3.2% Notes: Source: Reuters, FactSet and Street Estimates As of Dec 31, 2007.
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