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Semiconductor Sector Report

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Semiconductor Sector Report SEMICONDUCTOR SECTOR REPORT SAVVIAN, LLC 150 CALIFORNIA STREET, SAN FRANCISCO, CA 94111 | www.savvian.com | 415.318.3600 MARKET HIGHLIGHTS Inside this issue MARKETMARKET HIGHLIGHTSHIGHLIGHTS Two significant baseband IC transactions were announced in Q3’07. In August, LSI Logic (NYSE:LSI) signed a definitive agreement to sell its mobile products business, which designs semiconductors and software for cellular telephone Market Highlights handsets and complete chip-level solution for satellite digital audio radio applications, to Infineon (NYSE:IFX) for an Summary Performance aggregate amount of $495MM. In addition, Taiwan chip designer MediaTek (TPE:2454) announced the $350MM acquisition of the baseband chipset operation from Analog Devices (NYSE:ADI). Observations Six semiconductor companies registered for initial public offering in Q3’07 (including Memsic (NASDAQ:MEMS) Sonics Trading Data (NASDAQ:SNCS), Rubicon (NASDAQ:RBCN), Allegro Microsystems (NASDAQ:ALGM), Entropic (NASDAQ:ENTR), and Intellon (NASDAQ:INTL), marking a significant increase in IPO registration activity relative to the first and second quarters Transaction Activity of 2007. Savvian Update In July, Sumitomo Chemical (TYO:4005) announced the acquisition of Cambridge Display Technology (CDT) (NASDAQ:OLED), a developer of technologies based on polymer organic light emitting diodes (P-OLEDs). The acquisition, completed at a 107% premium over CDT’s 90-day average closing share price, is indicative of the significant market growth predicted for P-OLEDs as the technology seeks to displace current technologies in large panel televisions and lighting applications. The overall semiconductor market ended Q3’07 relatively flat following a trough in valuations mid-quarter. The sector has rebounded since mid-August with total semiconductor billings up 13% in Jul-Aug, tracking above normal seasonality. San Francisco Office SUMMARY Q3 STOCK PERFORMANCE 150 California Street San Francisco, CA 94111 112 Phone: (415) 318-3600 108 +2.6% New York Office 104 +1.5% 7 Times Square, 100 +0.4% Suite 2501 +0.4% New York, NY 10036 96 -1.1% Phone: (212) 999-7090 92 -7.4% Indexed Price Chicago Office 88 71 S Wacker Drive, 84 Suite 1230 Chicago, IL 60606 80 Phone: (312) 212-8210 7/02/07 7/13/07 7/27/07 8/08/07 8/21/07 8/31/07 9/14/07 9/28/07 NASDAQ SOX IC IP & EDA Equipment Services & Materials OBSERVATIONS While the pullback in the credit markets has negatively impacted the feasibility of large cap buyouts and attractiveness of debt financings, the deal pace for more traditional M&A transactions and equity financings has maintained a very healthy For further information, clip. In fact, Q3 saw an increase over Q2 for both number of M&A transactions announced and private financings please contact: completed. Six U.S.-based semiconductor companies filed for an initial public offering in Q3, signaling both the increasing openness of Bryce Dakin institutional investors to earlier stage growth stories, and ironically, the continued challenges faced by private semiconductor companies trying to secure funding on attractive terms. Director Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) cracked the top-10 list of semiconductor companies in Q2, the first time a fabless company Phone: (415) 318-3673 has held that distinction. Other volatility in the top-10 rankings was caused by significant shifts in the NAND Flash (up) and [email protected] DRAM (down) markets. Notably, Flash manufacturing capacity is predicted to pass DRAM in 2008. The demonstrated growth of focused fabless companies is coincident with more broadly diversified IDMs continuing to Mark Waissar streamline and optimize their portfolios with “divisional M&A”. The prior referenced cellphone baseband IC divisional sales this past quarter by both Analog Devices (NYSE:ADI) and LSI Logic (NYSE:LSI) are examples of IDM streamlining and Managing Director optimizing and indicative of the increasing costs to develop and maintain leading-edge, highly integrated IC solutions. Phone: (415) 318-3650 The Capital Equipment segment continues to face challenges including: moderated equipment spending across end [email protected] markets (with the exception of NAND Flash memory), increasing tool development costs, and rising customer concentration. Interestingly, the capital equipment segment has represented a disproportionately low percentage of overall M&A deal volume. SEMICONDUCTOR SECTOR STOCK PERFORMANCE Sector 1 Month Sector 3 Month Sector 1 Year Metrology, Test and Packaging Equipment 10.1% Discretes 3.5% Packaging / Testing Services 73.9% Packaging / Testing Services 8.2% Wafer Processing Equipment 1.8% Foundries 11.0% Wireless 5.9% EDA (0.2%) Analog / Linear 13.2% Multimedia 5.6% SOX (1.1%) Discretes 11.5% Intellectual Property 3.1% Analog / Linear (2.1%) SOX 10.0% Analog / Linear 3.0% Intellectual Property (2.7%) Intellectual Property 9.6% EDA 2.2% Wireless (3.5%) EDA 7.2% Foundries 2.0% Wireline (4.1%) Wafer Processing Equipment 4.2% Discretes 1.7% Packaging / Testing Services (6.3%) Wireless 3.2% SOX 0.5% Foundries (9.5%) Wafer and Materials 2.3% Wireline 0.2% Memory (11.3%) Wireline (2.4%) Processors (0.6%) Multimedia (11.4%) Metrology, Test and Packaging Equipment (3.8%) Wafer Processing Equipment (0.7%) PLD / ASIC (15.7%) Processors (4.4%) Memory (0.9%) Processors (15.9%) PLD / ASIC (5.1%) Wafer and Materials (1.5%) Metrology, Test and Packaging Equipment (17.1%) Multimedia (12.2%) PLD / ASIC (2.0%) Wafer and Materials (18.6%) Memory (12.8%) Notes: Represents median price change for each category over specified time period. SOX represents index of semiconductor public companies. Q3 Best Performers – Large Cap Q3 Best Performers – S/M Cap LTM Best Performers – Large Cap LTM Best Performers – S/M Cap Sigma Designs 79% Cambridge Display 82% ALi Corp 345% Elan Micro 468% ALi Corp 62% Echelon Corp 58% Sigma Designs 223% Pan Jit Intl. 309% Varian SEA 36% Pan Jit Intl. 46% SunPower Corp. 199% Weltrend Semi 307% Macronix 35% Catalyst Semi 44% ANADIGICS 153% Echelon Corp 204% Notes: Large Cap consists of companies with current market capitalization greater than $1Bn as of Sep 30, 2007. Small / Mid Cap consists of companies with current market capitalization between $100MM and $1Bn as of Sep 30, 2007. Q3 and LTM as of Sep 30, 2007. SEMICONDUCTOR SECTOR TRADING MULTIPLES Combined EPS Market AV / Revenue AV / EBITDA Price / EPS CY 07E Price / Long Term Revenue Growth Cap ($MM) CY 07E CY 08E CY 07E CY 08E CY 07E CY 08E PEG Book Growth 08E/07E Y/Y MRQ Median Multiples Processors $164,011 3.8 x 3.0 x 9.8 x 9.3 x 22.7 x 18.4 x 1.1 3.0 x 16.8% 17.8% 8.4% Wireless 134,655 2.9 x 2.1 x 14.7 x 10.3 x 20.7 x 17.9 x 1.0 3.8 x 19.5% 21.5% 13.6% Wafer Processing Equipment 106,391 2.0 x 1.8 x 11.7 x 10.8 x 17.2 x 16.2 x 1.0 2.2 x 17.0% 10.7% 1.1% Foundries 75,229 2.7 x 2.0 x 10.9 x 5.6 x 19.7 x 18.1 x 0.7 1.5 x 24.4% 21.0% (6.7%) Analog / Linear 74,896 3.6 x 3.1 x 15.0 x 12.3 x 24.5 x 19.4 x 1.2 3.3 x 17.0% 13.5% 1.5% Memory 62,408 1.3 x 1.2 x 13.6 x 10.4 x 41.0 x 24.5 x 1.8 2.0 x 17.0% 15.2% 12.5% Multimedia 54,717 1.6 x 1.3 x 9.5 x 8.6 x 18.5 x 14.4 x 0.7 1.9 x 21.7% 14.1% 0.2% Wireline 42,676 1.8 x 2.0 x 25.2 x 13.1 x 31.8 x 24.9 x 1.1 2.0 x 20.7% 18.9% (5.5%) PLD / ASIC 40,050 1.9 x 1.7 x 13.2 x 9.6 x 24.0 x 18.5 x 1.2 2.1 x 15.0% 8.9% (3.8%) Wafer and Materials 32,791 1.4 x 1.2 x 10.5 x 8.3 x 23.5 x 15.9 x 0.9 1.8 x 17.5% 10.7% 4.8% Metrology, Test and Packaging Equipment 21,969 1.4 x 1.3 x 12.3 x 7.7 x 25.1 x 16.9 x 0.9 1.7 x 16.4% 15.9% (11.6%) Packaging / Testing Services 19,371 1.9 x 1.6 x 6.3 x 5.5 x 14.0 x 11.1 x 0.7 2.4 x 17.5% 14.5% (8.1%) Discretes 17,536 1.4 x 1.3 x 8.6 x 7.5 x 21.8 x 15.5 x 1.0 1.8 x 14.5% 8.1% 5.6% Intellectual Property 13,380 5.2 x 5.3 x 16.6 x 14.3 x 30.5 x 28.8 x 1.0 2.3 x 23.8% 19.0% 26.5% EDA 12,436 2.4 x 2.1 x 12.2 x 9.4 x 19.8 x 18.5 x 0.9 2.8 x 20.5% 11.7% 11.2% Mean 2.4 x 2.1 x 12.7 x 9.5 x 23.7 x 18.6 x 1.0 2.3 x 18.6% 14.8% 3.3% Median 1.9 x 1.8 x 12.2 x 9.4 x 22.7 x 18.1 x 1.0 2.1 x 17.5% 14.5% 1.5% Notes: Source: Reuters, FactSet and Street Estimates As of Sep 29, 2007.
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