AnwarAnwar SadatSadat ChairChair forfor PeacePeace andand DevelopmentDevelopment
UniversityUniversity ofof MarylandMaryland 20112011 AnnualAnnual ArabArab PublicPublic OpinionOpinion SurveySurvey
Survey conducted October 2011 in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and UAE Sample size: 3000 Margin of error: +/- 1.8%
Professor Shibley Telhami, Principal Investigator
Mike Lebson, Evan Lewis and Abe Medoff assisted in preparation of this study KeyKey FindingsFindings KeyKey FindingsFindings
*Note that these polls measure trends but not necessarily likely voting behavior. There is little information on the central issue of likely voters and little precedence. At the local level, Egyptians vote often on the basis of family/clan loyalty, personality, or other factors that trump ideology. KeyKey FindingsFindings SamplesSamples andand PollingPolling DatesDates
Country Sample Margin of Start End Size Error Date Date Egypt 750 +/‐ 3.7% 10/22 10/30
UAE 500 +/‐ 4.5% 10/20 10/31
Morocco 750 +/‐ 3.7% 10/20 10/31
Lebanon 500 +/‐ 4.5% 10/20 10/27
Jordan 500 +/‐ 4.5% 10/20 10/30 PollingPolling CitiesCities
COUNTRY CITIES
Egypt Giza, Cairo, Qaliubiya, Alexandria, Al Minia (Upper Egypt), Al Ismailiyah (Suez Canal) UAE Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Sharjah
Morocco Casablanca, Rabat
Lebanon Beirut, Aley, Metn, Baabda, Tripoli, Shouf
Jordan Amman, Irbid, Zarqa ArabArab AwakeningAwakening Arab Awakening Arab Awakening Arab Awakening Arab Awakening Arab Awakening Arab Awakening Arab Awakening Arab Awakening EgyptianEgyptian ElectionsElections Egyptian Elections Egyptian Elections Egyptian Elections Egyptian Elections Egyptian Elections Egyptian Elections UnitedUnited StatesStates && thethe MiddleMiddle EastEast United States & the Middle East Generally speaking, is your attitude toward the United States…
2011 2010 2009
Very favorable 4 2 4
Somewhat 22 8 11 favorable
Somewhat 21 38 36 unfavorable
Very unfavorable 38 48 48 United States & the Middle East How would you describe your views of President Barack Obama of the United States? 2011 2010 2009
Positive 34 19 39
Neutral 13 18 32
Negative 43 62 24 United States & the Middle East Which of the following is closest to your views in describing US President Barack Obama? 2011 2010
Unfavorable view of him and I am 36 55 pessimistic about his foreign policy
Favorable personal view of him, but I don't think the American system will 41 35 allow him to have a successful foreign policy
Favorable personal view of him and I 8 3 am hopeful about his foreign policy United States & the Middle East How would you describe your attitudes toward the Obama Administration policy in the Middle East? 2011 2010 2009
Hopeful 20 14 47
Neither hopeful nor discouraged 19 20 31
Discouraged 52 65 15 United States & the Middle East What TWO steps by the United States would improve your views of the United States the most? 2011 2010 2009
Israel‐Palestine peace agreement 55 53 39
Stopping aid to Israel 42 47 24
Withdrawal from Arabian Peninsula 29 33 53
Withdrawal from Iraq 26 43 52
More economic aid to the region 12 8 6
Pushing more to spread democracy 11 13 7
Stopping aid to Arab governments 8 1 2 United States & the Middle East When you look back at the past year of the Obama Administration, which one of the following policies are you most disappointed with? 2011 2010
46 64 Palestine/Israel
Iraq 14 26
Attitudes toward Islam 12 4
Afghanistan 9 4
Human rights 5 1
Spreading democracy 5 1
Economic assistance 2 1 United States & the Middle East When you look back at the past year of the Obama Administration, which one of the following policies are you most pleased with? 2011 2010
4 Palestine/Israel Less than 1%
Iraq 8 3
Attitudes toward Islam 7 22
Afghanistan 2 1
Human rights 14 5
Spreading democracy 9 4
Economic assistance 17 11 United States & the Middle East Which TWO of the following factors do you believe are most important in driving American policy in the Middle East? 2011 2010 2009
Controlling oil 53 47 39
Protecting Israel 44 50 52
Weakening the Muslim world 32 34 38
Preserving regional and global dominance 29 36 25
Promoting peace and stability 8 6 8
Fighting terrorism 8 5 4
Preventing spread of nuclear weapons 7 13 12
Spreading human rights 5 4 4
Promoting democracy 5 4 5 ArabArab--IsraeliIsraeli ConflictConflict Arab‐Israeli Conflict Which of the following statements is closer to your view?
2011 2009
Prepared for peace if Israel is willing to return all 1967 territories 24 29 including East Jerusalem, and Arab governments should put more effort into this
Prepared for peace if Israel is willing to return all 1967 territories including East Jerusalem, but Israel 43 45 will never give up these territories easily
Even if Israel returns all 1967 territories, Arabs should continue to fight 23 24 Arab‐Israeli Conflict Which of the following statements is closest to your view about the prospects of lasting peace between Israel and the Palestinians? 2011 2009
Will happen in the 6 next five years 10
Inevitable, but it will 29 41 take more time
Don’t believe it will 53 49 ever happen Arab‐Israeli Conflict What do you believe is the likely outcome if the prospects of a two‐state solution in the Palestinian‐Israeli conflict collapse? 2011 2009
Status quo will continue 21 27
One‐state solution in which Israelis and 9 12 Palestinians are equal
State of intense conflict for years to come 54 59
Palestinians will eventually surrender 3 1 to Israeli power Arab‐Israeli Conflict A solution to the Palestinian‐Israeli conflict that leads to the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, with East Jerusalem as its capital, will happen only: 2011 2010
Through serious 20 40 negotiations
By being imposed by 24 18 the UN
By being imposed by 15 11 the United States
Through another 20 14 Arab‐Israeli war
It will never happen 16 16 Arab‐Israeli Conflict When you look at the Israeli‐Palestinian conflict, which of the following issues is the most central to you, assuming that they may all be important: 2011 2010
Establishment of a fully independent contiguous 29 45 Palestinian state in WBG
Arab sovereignty over 28 32 East Jerusalem
Right of Palestinian refugees to return to their 37 20 homes Arab‐Israeli Conflict Arab‐Israeli Conflict Arab‐Israeli Conflict Which of the following statements is closer to your view: (EGYPT ONLY) 2011 2009
I am prepared for a just and comprehensive peace with Israel if Israel returns all the territories 19 28 occupied, and Arab governments should make more efforts
I am prepared for a just and comprehensive peace with Israel if Israel returns all the territories 47 41 occupied, but they won't give up territory peacefully
Even if the Israelis return all of the territories occupied in 1967 19 28 peacefully, the Arabs should continue to fight Israel IranIran Iran Do you believe that Iran is merely conducting research for peaceful purposes, or trying to develop nuclear weapons? 2011 2009
Peaceful purposes 33 28
Nuclear weapons 52 59 Iran There is international pressure on Iran to curtail its nuclear program. What is your opinion? 2011 2009
Iran has the right to its nuclear program 64 53
Iran should be pressured to stop its 25 40 nuclear program Iran If Iran acquires nuclear weapons, which of the following is the likely outcome for the Middle East region? 2011 2009
More positive 25 28
Would not matter 25 19
More negative 35 46 Iran Name TWO countries that you think pose the biggest threat to you. 2011 2009
Israel 71 88
United States 59 76
Iran 18 12 GlobalGlobal PerspectivePerspective Global Perspective In a world where there is only one superpower, which of the following countries would you prefer to be that superpower? 2011 2009
23 14 China
Germany 15 25
Russia 12 7
France 10 23
Pakistan 7 3
United States 7 8
Britain 5 7 Global Perspective Which world leader (outside your own country) do you admire most? 2011 2010 2009
Recep Erdogan 22 22 4 Hassan Nasrallah 13 8 6
Mahmoud Ahmadinajad 13 14 6
King Abdullah Al Saud 7 1
Saddam Hussein 6 2 4 Hugo Chavez 5 14 26
Nicolas Sarkozy 5 7 6
Jacques Chirac 4 5 10 Barack Obama 4 2 2 Fidel Castro 3 1 5 Sheikh M. bin Rashed 3 1 1 Sheikh M. bin Zayed 3 4 3 Global Perspective If you had to live in one of the following countries, which one would you prefer most? 2011 2009
France 28 36
Germany 22 25
15 10 Britain
China 11 9
United States 10 5
Russia 4 4
Pakistan 2 1 Global Perspective IdentityIdentity Identity When your government makes decisions, do you think it should base its decisions mostly on what is best for… 2011 2009
Your country 58 55
Muslims 16 20
Arabs 14 23
The world 10 3 Identity Which of the following is your most important identity?
2011 2009
Citizen of your 33 38 country
Muslim 31 27
Arab 26 33
Citizen of the world 9 1 Identity Which of the following is your second most important identity?
2011 2009
Arab 27 30
Muslim 26 41
Citizen of your 24 24 country
Citizen of the world 11 2 MediaMedia Media Media What’s your primary source for international news?
2011 2009
Television 58 80
Internet 20 8
Newspapers / 14 9 Magazines
Radio 5 3 Media When you watch international news, which of the following network’s news broadcasts do you watch most often? 2011 2010 2009
Al Jazeera 43 38 58
Al Arabiya 14 3 5
MBC 12 11 4
LBC 7 5 1