Systems and Tipsters Update

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September 2007 What Really Wins Money An Independent Review of Tipsters and Betting Systems reetings from the Emerald Isle! A transitional Revealed: A Way to Find Gnewsletter this one I’m afraid. I’ve had some teething problems with wireless broadband (3 days Horses Worth Backing at without) which has meant I am way behind in my work. I haven’t been able to update the systems and Short Prices The Night tipsters to the standard I would like. As soon as this settling in period is over and I can stabalise my internet Before a Race Without connection I will be able to update all results and send Form Analysis them to those who ask, or update via the eletter so sign up at www.canonburypublishing.com/wins. n this issue I’ve tried to come up with a way of Iselecting win-only back bets in horse racing which This month we look at the Asian Handicap bet. Drawn can be done the night before the day’s racing, and in by the 50/50 betting opportunties, is there really a way more importantly without the need for form analysis. to profit? This can, I feel, only be achieved by putting a certain Fancy a free bet? Discover how to qualify for a degree of faith in the journalists at The Racing Post , and bookies free bet without losing any stake money! specifically, if you want to get your selections the night I also offer a quick glimpse into trading this month (it before, from their corresponding website, www.racingpost.co.uk. is a subject requiring more a more indepth look at), and I hope you’ll benefit and at least grasp the concept with I have come up with a template which has proved the article. successful recently and, if followed, will allow you to select horses with an above average chance of winning. Enjoy the read and I trust you’llfind something to The only problem with the template (and it’s not swell the coffers necessarily a problem) is that 100% qualifying selections Enjoy as per the rules you’ll read about in a few moments do not come along too often, but when they do, they jump Clive Keeling out at you and you can back them with confidence that they will be very competitive ALL THINGS REMAINING EQUAL. I mention this latter point In this issue: because the ideal for any system (and the weakness of any mechanical system) is to qualify selections with Revealed: A Way to Find Horses Worth Backing the live betting market, because money is the key in at Short Prices The Night Before a Race horse racing. Without Form Analysis ...... page 1 It’s all very well selecting a horse the night before, but Announcing: New FREE Resources to Help in doing this we are missing out on potential gambled on You Learn to Trade More Profitably horses nearer race time...... page 4 OK, so before we unravel the system I’ve found that More Ways to Profit Using Bookie’s Free Bets could ensure we’re not spending hours and hours ...... page 7 analysing form, OR needing to be around to watch the Fancy Backing a 1/5 Shot at a Much Better Price? racing OR follow it live, I think you should realise that in Use This Asian Handicapping Technique ..... page 9 order for us to achieve the above 2 goals we have to sacrifice in other areas already mentioned – specifically SYSTEM AND TIPSTERS UPDATE ...... page 11 the fact that we cannot be reactive to any money or And Finally . . . shortening in price that has come for any other horses How a Mild-Mannered Yorkshire Man Could (a la 16/1 system!). We have to be reliant on the analysis Help You to Compound Massive Winnings of third parties, and being human, they can get it wrong Backing Favourites ...... page 11 at times! I have been keeping a record of all qualifying selections please turn over WRWM_Sept07.qxd:WRWM_Sept07 19/9/07 16:22 Page 2

and have come up with what I believe to be the ideal 8TH SEPTEMBER : 350 L EOPARDSTOWN template we should be using on a daily basis. Examples BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Dylan Thomas, 5/1 Red of course will show this template fully: Rocks, 13/2 Finsceal Beo, 7/1 Duke Of Marmalade, 10/1 28 A UGUST : 415 L INGFIELD Maraahel, 66/1 Red Rock Canyon. BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Palmetto Point, 7/1 SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Dylan Thomas is going to be Botham, Straight Face, Withywood, 8/1 Candyland, 9/1 an exceptionally tough nut to crack, but at the prices it is Run For Ede, 10/1 Ella Y Rossa, 14/1 Mariaverdi, 25/1 possibly worth taking a chance that FINSCEAL BEO can Hannahbecc, Rangali Belle, 33/1 Ponte Vecchio. recover her early-season brilliance. Her trainer's record with top-class fillies speaks for itself. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Potentially a lively market with reasons to anticipate improved efforts from Straight POINT 1: Funnily enough this is not the ideal price Face, Botham and Withywood, but PALMETTO POINT gap, but when we take the price gap seen in the context of (nap) has more concrete claims and may still be a step the grade of race (top class), it takes on greater ahead of the handicapper. Straight Face could pose significance. most problems . POINT 2: Remember those trigger words? Well, here Palmetto Point:great price gap here. Result: 1st at 5/6 is a prime example “exceptionally tough nut to crack” This is the IDEAL example we are looking at for POINT POINT 1 – THE PRICE GAP 2. The result? 1st 8/15.

This is The Racing Post Betting Forecast available 11 TH SEPTEMBER : 450 L EICESTER from www.racingpost.co.uk the night before racing starts from about 8pm onwards. Our first step is to note the BETTING FORECAST: Evs Ibn Khaldun, 8/1 price gap between the first favourite and the 2nd named Abeyance, Forsyte Saga, Morestead, 10/1 King´s horse in the Betting Forecast. Wonder, Novas, 14/1 Looter, St Jean Cap Ferrat, 33/1 Royal Manor, 50/1 Atlantic Diamond, 100/1 Looking here, the first favourite, Palmetto Point, is Amwell House. priced at 15/8 and the 2nd favourite Botham is priced at 7/1. Remember earlier I mentioned we are looking for SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not much to go on in the horses who “jump off the page”? Well from a price gap way of form and the betting should be informative with perspective, this is the case here – very obvious indeed. big stables represented by newcomers. Morestead will be a factor if fulfilling debut promise and St Jean Cap Ferrat POINT 2 - SPOTLIGHT’S VERDICT is a likely improver, but IBN KHALDUN is the only one with up-coming Group race engagements and likely to be Here we are looking for optimism and confidence hard to beat with a promising run behind him . from another of The Racing Post ’s journalists: SPOTLIGHT. Spotlight provides us with his VERDICT at POINT 1: A very significant price gap the base of the race card, as well as a spotlight on all POINT 2: “likely to be hard to beat” horses in the race. The first place to look is VERDICT. RESULT: 1st 4/9. It is a real pity about the price here I have mentioned this phrase before, and told you that as this is another ideal example of what we are looking I use it as a trigger for any bets I want to make using a for a price gap. selection strategy NOT based on any form analysis. The phrase is simply “hard to beat” (or a variant thereof, such 13 TH SEPTEMBER : 755 W OLVES as “tough nut to crack, impossible to oppose” etc). If this BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Choisette, 6/1 Paddy trigger phrase is not there, then we must build up Jack, Richardthesecond, 8/1 Bahamarama, 10/1 Speedy evidence to convince us to back the horse in question. In Senorita, 12/1 Orpen´s Art, 14/1 Diademas, 20/1 Baytown this example, I have singled out 2 pieces of information Blaze, Maracana Boy, 25/1 Frizzini, Myriola, Only In provided by Spotlight’s Verdict, the first is the fact that Jest, Rightcar Ellie . Spotlight has coincidentally napped the horse. A nap is SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A couple of interesting the best bet at the race course that day. Spotlight tells us runners but the one to appeal most is CHOISETTE (nap), that Palmetto Point has “concrete claims” – and he “may who is ideally drawn for one that races up with the pace still be ahead of the handicapper”. and whose second to a previous winner (pair clear) on This is enough evidence for me. The result? 1st at 5/6. her AW debut last week gives her a leading form chance An unexciting price and as the title to this article off tonight's 2lb lower mark . suggests, if you don’t want to do any form analysis then POINT 1 – The price gap is very definitely there – more often than not you will be singling out horses whose 13/8 – 6/1. chances are obvious, and when chances are obvious this is reflected in the price. POINT 2 – Again Choisette has coincidentally been

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napped by Spotlight. Because there is no “hard to beat” Option, 20/1 Regal Ovation, 33/1 Apache Chant, On or equivalent trigger words, we are looking to build Watch, 40/1 Salto Chico . evidence. So here we have Spotlight’s best selection at SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: F RANCHOEK (nap) found the meeting, a horse who is well drawn and was clear of his stride much too late when favourite at Haydock but his rivals in a similar race last time out. From a the winner was an unexposed Prescott charge (who won handicapping perspective, Choisette is also “2 lbs lower” again next time) and the return here to 2m from 1m6f will RESULT: 1st 11/10 be firmly in his favour. Several of today's rivals run over this sort of trip for the first time and Pertemps Power, for 15 TH AUGUST : 240 B EVERLEY one, is open to improvement now he goes handicapping, BETTING FORECAST: Evs United Nations, 7/1 but Franchoek looks clearly the pick on the existing Credential, Time To Regret, 10/1 Forest Viking, 12/1 racecourse evidence . Sion Hill, 16/1 Cottam Eclipse, Splodger Mac, Weet Yer Tern, 20/1 Filey Buoy, 25/1 Height Of Esteem, 33/1 Pixie POINT 1: Again a decent enough price gap Princess, 50/1 Afric Star, Marryl. POINT 2: The lack of trigger words mean that we SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Though his recent efforts are must build up evidence – the horse is napped - the step far from inspiring, UNITED NATIONS, clear on official up in trip “ firmly in his favour” – “looks the clear pick ratings, is likely to prove hard to beat. Forest Viking looks on the existing evidence” most interesting of his distinctly moderate opponents. RESULT: 1st 4/7

POINT 1: Look at the price gap – jumps off the page 13 TH SEPTEMBER : 350 L INGFIELD doesn’t it? BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Rockfield Lodge, 9/2 POINT 2: those magic words appear – “ likely to Alls Fair, 15/2 Sunny Sprite, 9/1 Farpedon, 10/1 Oceana prove hard to beat” Blue, 12/1 Raiding Party, 14/1 Imperial Mark, 20/1 RESULT: 1st Evens Master Of Arts, 22/1 Eastbourne, 25/1 Sweet Dane, 40/1 Peer Pressure . The above are what I term “template examples” ie this is the ideal we should be looking at for all future SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Unless one of the examples. The one off-putting part of this strategy is the newcomers is decent - and there are one of two half- inevitable short prices. Horses like United Nations at interesting ones on paper, worth a market check - this is Evens do not come along too often alas, and more likely to go to ROCKFIELD LODGE (nap), whose latest typically we will be looking at odds on prices. There are Haydock second is decent enough form and who had run borderline examples I would like to show you which are well enough here the time before. With a BHB rating of not as obvious as the above examples. 78, one of the newcomers will have to be around about an 85 horse at least to beat him, without the benefit of 25 TH AUGUST : 235 G OODWOOD previous experience . BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Sense Of Joy, 5/1 POINT 1: A none too spectacular price gap when Mistress Greeley, 8/1 Rosaleen, 10/1 Dusty Moon, 12/1 looked at relative to the templated exampled Celtic Slipper, 25/1 Eva´s Request, 66/1 Fly Kiss , POINT 2: again coincidentally napped, The clincher SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Listed and Group race form for me was the following comment “with a BHB rating of is notable by its absence but promise aplenty, notably in 78, one of the newcomers will have to be around about an the shape of SENSE OF JOY, who made a deep 85 horse at least to beat him, without the benefit of impression on her debut. Dusty Moon and Mistress previous experience” Greeley, likewise, are unbeaten but Rosaleen achieved more when winning at Thirsk and could prove second RESULT: 1st 4/5 best. [FC] A Potential Lay System Uncovered Too? POINT 1: Yes we have a decent enough price gap here I’ve noticed as I have been collecting these examples POINT 2: This was the clincher for me – the that some price gappers lose more often than they win description used by Spotlight “ deep impression” Very and the clues are there. As well as this there are certain expressive wording race types and, again, evidence provided by Spotlight RESULT: 1st 4/7 which lead me to leave the qualifier alone from a backing perspective. Let’s look at some examples: 27 TH AUGUST : 340 C HEPSTOW 27 TH AUGUST : 440 C ARTMEL BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Franchoek, 6/1 Conny Nobel, 13/2 Red, Susie May, 8/1 Tobougg Welcome, 10/1 BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Westfield Dancer, 5/1 Lady Traill, Madam Vouvray, Pertemps Power, 16/1 Right Good Man Again, 11/2 Ad Murum, 15/2 Midnight please turn over 3 WRWM_Sept07.qxd:WRWM_Sept07 19/9/07 16:22 Page 4

Gunner, 11/1 Chevalier Errant, 12/1 Professor Hegarty, better still, shorten in the live market. 14/1 Hehasalife, 18/1 Snipe, 20/1 Barracat, 25/1 Blazing Confidence is always increased with the top class Hills, Rolfes Delight . races. One example from the templates is that of Dylan SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WESTFIELD DANCER has Thomas, while others appeared more recently in the Class produced dominant performances on his last three starts, 1 and 2 races at Doncaster. is unbeaten at this course and can defy another rise in the I keep a log of potential price gappers and my blog is weights. Ad Murum and Midnight Gunner could give the available to view at http://clivekeeling.spaces.live.com. I selection most to do . have had to transfer from www.back-lay-trade-horses- Evidence that would lead me against backing this football.blogspot.com as I have trouble accessing it here horse is the “another rise in the weights” The horse was in Ireland for some reason.! pulled up at 9/4. My new approach to each-way betting using the 435 N EWMARKET betting forecast can now be viewed. I have changed tack BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Abydos, 5/1 Know The from speculative to more obvious candidates and have, Law, 6/1 Zero Cool, 8/1 Hope Road, 12/1 Bankable, 14/1 since 15th September, found winners at 11/2, 11/2, 6/1, Moral Code, Perfect Cause, Waymark, 16/1 Give Me A 9/1, and 10/1 as well as placed horses. I cannot, of course Break, 20/1 Ezdiyaad, La Lunete, 50/1 Viva Vettori, 66/1 promise this will continue but you can monitor and, I Ardmaddy, Kaateb, King Zeal, Sierra Rose. hope, learn from the new approach. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Much slower ground than Betting Blueprint ABYDOS encountered when a promising third on his debut at Windsor last week when followed home by Know The Law and Waymark but he looks sure to have more to Announcing: New offer and is the one to beat as long as he handles it. FREE Resources to Yes, he qualifies under Point 1: the price gap, BUT “much slower ground” is too much of a question mark for Help You Learn to Trade me to entertain a back bet – the horse was unplaced at 5/2

28 TH AUGUST : 445 L INGFIELD More Profitably BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Back In The Red, 4/1 ’ve spoken a lot about trading on Betfair in my Luck Will Come, 5/1 Shaded Edge, 12/1 Lord Of The Irecent e-letters and before I tell you about a Reins, 14/1 Fast Freddie, 16/1 Polish Prize, 20/1 Darling simple strategy I use, I would like to point you in the Belinda, Emma Jean Lad, 25/1 Futuristic Dragon, Victory direction of a number of free video tutorials which Spirit, 33/1 Golden Brown, Ten For Tosca . can give you a glimpse of experienced Betfair SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not many that can be trader’s decision making processes. Yes, they are strongly fancied with the main question being whether trying to flog Racing Trader software but that aside, Back On The Red can reproduce his recent improved 5f I think there is enough in these free tutorials to be of performances on turf under today's different conditions. If real benefit! he can he will take plenty of beating despite his 12lb penalty, but an interesting alternative is the quietly First off there’s www.betexchangetips.com. I must progressive SHADED EDGE who did well to overcome reiterate I have no affiliation with these sites at all. I just the outside stall when off the mark over C&D last time . wanted to provide some free resources for those of you whose interest in trading may have been sparked by the Prime example of too many “ifs and buts” despite a recent mailings regarding the Etrends Black Box trading reasonable price gap. The horse came 4th at 7/4. system. This is a good resource for you to gain some grounding into trading, predominantly on Betfair, on BOTTOM LINE horse racing and football. The information is basic and If you concentrate only on the “templated examples” will give you quick exposure to some of the techniques as were seen at the head of the article, the strike rate used by a traditional Betfair trader. should ensure a decent profit in the long term if you have Another resource can be found at the discipline to cherry picks those examples which http://www.aquasearch.co.uk/BetfairVideo. I don’t know “jump off the page” for how long these videos will be available but do take a Some further pointers: if you can to follow the live look if trading is of interest to you. It’s all very well market, this will help add confidence to, or lead you away trying to explain the concept of trading price movements from, backing a potential qualifier. I like to see the price in words, but visuals are far better and can be reviewed to of a price gapper remain as it is in the betting forecast, or clarify certain points.

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The latter resource is obviously biased towards the So from a trading perspective I have 2 options and 2 Racing Trader software but if you can withstand the use horses to focus on. I can lay Demisemiquaver and back of these videos as obvious marketing tools, I think you the horse again if its price continues to rise OR I can will benefit greatly. back Sues Surprise and hope that the price continues to shorten. Here’s My Preferred Method Let’s look at a recent example of a race which might be The Key Rule Of Trading Price worth trading. See Fig 1 below. Why might this race be Movements traded? There are 4 horses priced at 180 or bigger. I can Whenever we are looking to back a horse with a view to surmise from this that the race will revolve around the top trading, we are looking to lay the same horse at a price 4 in the betting. lower than we backed it. In this example, we would back Sues Surprise at 1.72 and look to lay the horse at 1.71 OR Fig 1 LOWER if the price, as we hope, continues to fall. Whenever we are looking to lay a horse with a view to trading, we are looking to back the same horse at a price HIGHER than we laid it. In this example, we would lay Demisemiquaver at 3.6 and look to back the horse at 3.65 OR HIGHER if the price, as we hope, continues to rise. So Which Option Did I go For? I always look to back trade so in this race I focused my attention on Sues Surprise. Why back trade? In my previous laying articles I have spoken a lot about laying and the liabilities that go hand-in-hand with this form of betting. If you are lay trading and the price does not rise, Another clue? There are 2 horses at the head of the as you would like, you still have an outstanding liability market with a prominent price gap to the 3rd favourite to contend with. Cow Girl. I can deduce from this that the pre-race punters When you are back trading, you know already how are going to be focussing on these 2 horses, and more much you are likely to lose should a trade move against likely than not on the odds-on shot Sues Surprise. Current you. You are likely to lose your stake – but that’s all! odds for Sues Surprise are 1.87 to back and 1.89 to lay. We have 8 minutes before the race is due to go off. Fig 3 In Fig 2 below there are now just 3 minutes to go before the off and the price of the favourite has dropped dramatically – this is immediately viewable via the price graph accompanying the horse. Obviously punters on Betfair are looking to back the favourite – when a horse is backed its price drops. Conversely this is increasing the price for Demisemiquaver as more people are looking to oppose this horse. Fig 2

I place my trade. See Fig 3 above. Note I have used an increased stake here, BUT remember this money is not being gambled on Sues Surprise, it is being used as leverage to engineer the trade. I have chosen my back trade, and here’s my little trick for ensuring the quickest execution of the trade. I have placed a back trade at 1.73 (the price shown in the lay column) and a lay trade at 1.72 (the price shown in the back column). Why have I done this? The back price is 1.72, isn’t it? Yes it is, BUT the next price waiting to back the horse is 1.73.

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TIP: prices in the lay columns are prices put up by and decided that this horse would be popular amongst punters wanting to BACK the horse. Prices in the back backers and placed a back bet at 1.87. Look at the price columns are prices put up by punters wanting to LAY above – 1.62 – a massive 0.25 point drop and a big the horse. guaranteed profit. Fig 4 TIP: I have used specialist software here called Fairbot which automatically places my trades for me on both the back and lay sides and greens up the screen and spreads the profit automatically. A Step-By-Step Guide The ideal here is to do the following: Focus on short priced horses , who will by default be more likely favourites or near the head of the market. Use specialist software . To trade using just Betfair’s website is possible but you might need to share a seat with Carol Vorderman! If you are in a position to be able to trade, then you need a Betfair interface which will, ideally place your trades for you and spread your profit In Fig 4 the price has now dropped to 1.71 to back and (or loss) at the touch of a button without you needing to 1.72 to lay. Both of my back trade bets have been calculate the stakes required. triggered automatically and I have a “green screen” of £1.51. Mistblack surprises and wins! But who cares? I Chose the gap between your trades carefully . What win regardless! do I mean? Using the above example I was using an offset of 1 which means whenever I placed a back trade Using my specialist software I see that Sues Surprise’s (eg 1.73) I wanted to place my corresponding lay trade at price is still looking like it will shorten as more support 0.01 point lower (1.72) as this was more likely to occur comes for the horse. How can I tell this? The graph is than if I placed my lay bet at 1.65 (although this price showing a decreasing triangle. Contrast this with was eventually reached!) Demisemiquaver’s graph which shows a growing triangle indicating it is being laid. If a trade doesn’t go your way, take the loss and spread it amongst the other horses (the video I decide to go in again. This time I use my old trick of tutorials show well the concept of “hedging” your profits backing at the lay price and laying at the back price. and losses). As it turns out, both the back and lay prices reduce I would always favour back trades to lay trades simultaneously, and I have secured another profit on all because I know my potential loss before hand. horses. Let’s fast forward to just before the off and look at the final screen (Fig 5 below). A “green screen” of Bottom Line £6.20 all round – guaranteed profit! This is one of many ways that you can trade the Fig 5 pre-race markets for horse racing and secure a green screen. The video tutorials show you too what is possible, and reinforce, I think, the importance of using specialist software. You can obtain free software in the form of bet angel basic at www.betangel.com and this software is sufficient to allow you to gain exposure to the markets although your trading style will have to be different. My preferred software is Fairbot from www.binteko.com. At $99 per year as I write, this represents extreme value for money. I am collecting videos of my own experience which I would like to make available some time in the future to show you how you Any Alternative Methods? can replicate the example of the green screen above, and this form of trading can solve the problem for the Of course if you saw Sues Surprise’s initial price some compounders who are seeking to make 2% per day in as 8 minutes before the off, you could have taken a stance risk free a way as possible. This is achievable via trading.

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Horse racing is not the only sport where trading price This can also be applied to new Betfair account free movements can be profitably exploited. Football trading bets. Lay the bet on Betfair and back the same horse with is big business and can be very lucrative if executed a bookmaker at similar odds. Either way you win, and correctly. There are some obvious difference between more importantly, you have met the terms and conditions football trading and horse racing trading. Football trading to activate your free bonus. is in running only trading and price fluctuations (which This is a skin and bones example of what’s available allow us to trade) are based upon reactions to goals, red in the risk free betting world. There are more cards, or even NO goals being scored. Football trading is opportunities out there, but the potential to make more opinion based than horse racing where to be headache free profits is certainly there, as this reader’s successful you don’t even need to know one end of a diary will attest: horse from the other because you are simply trading the movements in price between backer and layer before the Tony’s Trade Diary race is off. “First of all, I would like to say anyone who is reading RESOURCES this that I am new to this as well. You must read through the e-books and fully understand everything before you www.bfguide.com/ trade. It is all relatively quite easy and is as simple as www.laytheodds.com/articles/21/1/Betfair-Basics--- placing a total of 4 bets to complete a winning trade. You Trading---Back-High-Lay-Low---Part-2/Trading-on- can trade on any sport you like but I tend to trade on the Betfair---Back-High-Lay-Low-for-Guaranteed- horses as it’s over in a few minutes. With the new football Profits.html season there is plenty of action and trades. Just imagine www.freegamblingebooks.com/betfairtradingcourse placing your bet on a horse race or football and not even bothered about the outcome as you now how much you Remember these free guides are all trying to sell you will get back whatever the outcome. It’s a great feeling! something, but use them as free resources and you can get a good grounding in the concept of trading and whether it Personally I prefer to trade on one bookie at a time per is for you. day as I want to keep track of my transactions and make sure monies are paid back into my bank account before I am trying new methods all the time and will save my moving onto the next one. You can trade more if you findings to pass on to you in due course. wanted to but keep track of your separate trades and accounts though. Betting Techniques My very first trade was on 13th July 2007 (see below). Having just finished reading the e-course I was eager to More Ways to Profit get my first trade done to see if it worked. You can learn Using Bookie’s Free Bets from my mistakes. I forgot to use the money bet calculator for my first bet and stuck a lay bet on £50. ’ve glossed over this great little trick before, but Here’s what happened: here’s a way for you to turn your bookmaker I FRIDAY 13 JULY 2007 bonuses into free cash. I opened an account with betinternet.com and Because the industry is so competitive, bookmakers do deposited £50. At the time they are offering 50% match offer generous bonuses for signing up with them, bonuses free bet on your initial deposit. To take full advantage I which are generally only functioned after a certain had to deposit and bet £50. Please read each bookies’ amount is first wagered. terms and conditions as they can vary. Most are quite You may be thinking . . . “so I have to wager a certain similar in the fact that they require you to bet at least stake amount in order to activate my bonus. What if I even money or higher to qualify for your free bet. I lose? Yes I’ll still get my bonus but I’ll still be out of looked through the racing and comparing the price also pocket.” Good point, but have you considered this: on Betfair and found a suitable race. York 2.15 : Transmission currently at 15/8 so placed Why Not Create a Risk-Free Bet my £50 bet on that to win.Looked at the lay side on And Then Still Collect Your Betfair and I laid £50 to lose at 3.2 which meant a Bookmaker Bonus? liability of £110. If I used the calculator it would have said lay it at £45.63 to get an even loss. However the Use your qualifying stake to back a certain horse. horse lost, I got my £50 back minus 5% commission so Lay the same horse on Betfair. Win or lose you will be current loss of £2.50. back on parity and your bookmaker bonus will have been activated. Normally you could wait up to 24 hours before a free please turn over 7 WRWM_Sept07.qxd:WRWM_Sept07 19/9/07 16:23 Page 8

bet is credited to your account. Acting like a new punter bet at Lingfield 2.20 : Dresdon Doll at 15/8, laid on and losing on my first bet I contacted the live support via Betfair at 2.98 for £31.78. their link. They checked my account and credited me with The horse lost so received £31.78 less £2.50 for a the free £25 bet within the hour. Once I new the £25 quid had been credited I looked for another race and found a RISK FREE profit of £29.28. suitable one. WEDNESDAY 18 J ULY Newmarket 3.45 : Laureldean Gale odds at the time I opened another account to trade for today with 7/4 and placed my free £25 bet on that to win. totesport.com. The free bet you get is credited instantly (Remember the free bet is not returned as money, you once you place your £25 stake. only get the profits should it win) I wasn’t using the calculator at this point and stuck a lay bet of £25 on the First bet Uttoxeter 3.10 : Too Posh To Share backed same horse to lose. It was playing on my mind it didn’t £25 at 7/4, laid at 2.72 for £25. Yes I got a lower price add up after I placed the bet. Luckily this was a few hours than I backed it (due to the fact once I backed it the price beforehand and using the calculator before the race start I started shortening so got a better price on Betfair). realised my mistake. I should have laid £15.56 for a The horse won so profit £43.75 less liability of £43 liability of £28.96. I managed to back it at £10 before the profit of 0.75 pence. race started. Next bet used free £25 bet at Lingfield 3.20: The horse won so my profit was £43.75 less liability Montpellier backed at 15/8, laid it at 3.10 for £15.62. £28.96 = £14.79 less £2.50 for first trade = RISK FREE profit for today £12.29! Horse lost so received 15.62 less 0.78 commission I made a mistake by laying the whole £25 on plus previous profit of 0.75 makes RISK FREE profit Laureldean Gale to lose. Luckily I quickly rectified this of £15.59 before race started by backing it back at £10. Please do MONDAY 23 JULY not try and jump the gun like I did and use the calculator. I thought I had it all sussed and didn’t really bother with Opened account with vcbet.co.uk with £50 for a free the calculator and it could’ve cost me. £50 bet. Yarmouth 2.30: Grand Art backed £50 at 7/4, laid on Betfair at 2.86 for £48.93 which would mean a loss of MONDAY 16 J ULY 2007 £3.51 whatever the outcome. Grand Art won so current Opened an account with betdirect.net as they are loss of £3.51 (profit of £87.5 less liability £91.00). offering £50 free bet BUT you only get £25 free bet TUESDAY 24 J ULY initially and then when you place a further 10 bets of £25 you then get the next £25. I decided to take advantage of Free bet credited to my vcbet account. Found an ideal the initial £25 and could come back later for the rest once race 2.30 Yarmouth : Bret Maverick early price 9/2. my list of bookies have been used up. Once you have Betfair trading on lay 5.8 so quick calculation with placed your first bet of £25 the free £25 gets credited calculator. Placed £50 to win with vcbet at 9/2, laid into your account quite quickly so ideal for a quick £39.13 at 5.8 with Betfair. complete trade. Either outcome for a profit of £37.17. Horse lost so First bet I found was the Newton Abbot 2.15 : Ruby received £39.13 from lay bet less commission £1.96. Dante £25 to win and laid £25 to lose at 3.4 with Betfair. Leaves £37.17 less previous day loss of £3.51. Risk Free The horse won so I was down (£56.25 profit less £60.00 Profit £33.66! liability) £3.75. Second bet used free bet at the 2.45 Newton Abbot , TIP: I have been playing about with the calculator and horse Penny Pictures 5/2 to win, laid £17 at 3.75. The found out that if using the free bet, try and look for bets horse lost. So £17 less 0.85 commission and £3.75 first with odds around 3/1 or more, as you tend to get a better trade loss leaves £12.40 RISK FREE profit return. I initially was going to back an odds on so my liability was low, but the returns were very small at TUESDAY 17 J ULY around 100% less than what you can get from a longer Betfred.com are offering £50 free bet for an initial shot horse. stake of £50. The free bet will be credited up to 24 hours. E.g: Say 8/11 shot backed at £50 will return profit First bet was Brighton 3.30 Ten on Line to win at 6/5 for £50. Managed to lay this at 2.2 for £50. The horse lost so only of £36.36; to lay that on Betfair would be around received £50 from lay bet less commission of £2.50. 1.86 mark, so the calc says I should lay for £20.08. That would give a profit of £19.08 before taking out first trade WEDNESDAY 18 J ULY losses. Compare that to profit I got above by backing and A £50 free bet is credited into my account. Used free laying a 9/2 shot!”

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What Really WINS Money View My 2nd bet on Lyon at bigger odds could now be negated, but I held firm as there were 20 minutes to go, From a personal point of view, traditional arbitrage is Lyon were originally short-priced favourites and were viable but it’s just not for me. I really don’t want to spend expected to win. In the 75th minute, Lyon score again – countless hours scouring markets on betting exchanges it’s now 2-2 and with 15 minutes to go, my back bets and obscure bookmakers, depositing funds and winning were looking rosy. tuppence risk free. BUT I know there are those of you who want to investigate this phenomenon further and may At this stage I could have easily laid off both bets and wish to replicate the reader. www.freebetsarbitrage.com created the fabled green screen but, 15 minutes is a long offer a variety of methods to make risk free gains from time in football, and the once heavily odds on favourites advanced strategies and how to ensure you profit with were on parity with an opposition they were expected to bookmaker incentives. Some of their methods marry beat quite comfortably. Joy of joys – it’s the 77th traditional bookmakers and the betting exchanges minute and Lyon go 3-2 up with 13 minutes to play. I ability to lay in new and unique ways, and most traded out my back bets at enhanced odds and returned importantly, for profit. far greater than would have been the case if I had backed Lyon pre-match. This is a reader recommendation and I wanted to share it with you. He has benefited and has negotiated a Yes this is not a typical example of what happens alas, discount for WRWM readers, so if you are interested but can serve to illustrate that if a strongly fancied team go to www.freebetsarbitrage.com/wrwm or email me go 1-0 or even 2-0 down, the odds to back them will and I will liaise with the reader in question to answer naturally increase. Why? Well, now they have to score 2 your queries goals to win the game. Backing at these enhanced odds gives us a great value bet, and an opportunity to trade out FOOTBALL TRADING the bet if there is only an equaliser, because the market will expect a victory once parity has been resumed. Fancy Backing a 1/5 Shot Ideal teams for this include all of the major European teams quoted at 1/5 or thereabouts prematch. If they go a at a Much Better Price? goal down get ready to back them. Then Use These 2 Proven This little system will not work 100% of the time, football being what it is, but will ensure that you are Techniques always getting value for money when compared to pre match prices. t is now possible for you to get a “value” bet Iabout a team which is heavily odds on. How? How Match Odds Prices Can Help You Well in-running betting on football matches can in The Asian Handicap allow us to do just that! Opportunities arise every The Asian handicap system eliminates any chance for weekend around the world and you can hop on and loss due to a draw, and, we are led to believe, increase us hopefully profit. punters chances of success. But how on earth can you back a 1/5 shot at A draw is more common in football than any other significantly greater odds? The answer is simply wait for sport in comparison. Traditional bookmakers include the them to go a goal down! A recent example will highlight home win, away win and draw options in their match this nifty little method well. odds market. Naturally if you’ve backed the home or On the 1st September Lyon were playing at home away team and the game ends in a draw, you lose. This is against Le Mans. Their price indicated an easy not the case in Asian Handicap betting where the draw is victory and was too short to seriously concern the effectively eliminated by the use of a handicap for one everyday punter. team. This creates an environment where both teams now have a 50/50 chance of victory. The first half was uneventful but in the 43rd minute Le Mans took a 1- 0 lead against bookmaker and punter’s The Handicap expectation. I backed Lyon at this stage expecting them to equalise in the 2nd half. Disaster struck. In the 54th Handicaps are given in football matches by awarding minute Le Mans went 2- 0 up. goals (or parts of a goal!) to one team effectively giving them a head start. The thinking behind the bookmakers is Me? I backed Lyon again. Why? Because I knew that to create a platform where both teams have an equal if Lyon scored a goal their odds would still fall. chance of victory, even though they may be mismatched The 70th minute arrived. Lyon scored to make it 2-1. on paper. Let’s take a hypothetical example: please turn over 9 WRWM_Sept07.qxd:WRWM_Sept07 19/9/07 16:23 Page 10

Manchester City are playing Everton. The handicap on Asian handicap betting, and our profitability, will be offer is 0:1.5. Translated this means that Everton have based on our ability to correctly predict 3 things: been given a 1.5 goal advantage over Manchester City. • The final score The bookmakers are telling us they think Manchester City will win by 2 clear goals and if that concurs with your • How many goals the favourites will score. thinking then you would back Manchester City with a 1 5 • How many, if any, goals the opposition goal disadvantage. will score. If the game ends 2 – 1 to Manchester City, then So how can we make an informed decision in Everton have won the Asian handicap because we add an this regard? additional 1.5 goals to their scoreline. Any backer of Manchester City on the Asian handicap would have lost Research! Research! Research! their bet. Why? Well Manchester City were starting at a 11/2 goal disadvantage, so through the eyes of the Asian The first point to look at is research. If I was to handicapper, they lost the game half a goal! approach the Chelsea v Rosenborg game, I would need to see the Chelsea Team sheet to ensure that Chelsea are Why Half a Goal? playing with their first team and first choice strikers. It’s impossible to score half a goal. Exactly! Therefore I would look at Chelseas’s recent results. Have no match on the Asian handicap can end up as a draw Chelsea won by 3 clear goals this season? No, most when using one half and one quarter handicaps. typically they have won by 1 goal or drawn their matches. Games where Chelsea were expected to win (ie at home Here’s a Typical Example. See Fig 6 below. Can you to Birmingham) they drew 3-2. see how the bets are calculated? From the list above, let’s take a closer look at 2 options on offer. Have Chelsea met Rosenborg before? No they haven’t. What odds are Chelsea in the traditional match odds Fig 6 market? They are 1/6 on to win the match. This suggests that this game should be a comfortable win for Chelsea. TIP: always look at how an established bookmaker has priced up the Asian handicap market , as this will give you an idea of how they see the game and the final result. In this case, I use Ladbrokes and they have give Rosenborg a 2 goal lead in the Asian Handicap market. TIP: collect fixed odds coupons . Why? If you have a library of fixed odds coupons you can look to see the last time Chelsea were priced at 1/6 AT HOME (because they are playing at home against Rosenborg and are quoted 1/6 again) and look up the score for this match. This can give you a pointer as to future likely scores when Chelsea are priced at 1/6 at home. If you use these pointers, you will be in a good position to determine, based on the match odds price, Chelsea –2 & -2.5: There are 2 bets here for us. The how many goals Chelsea are likely to win by. By doing odds are 2.5. If Chelsea win by 3 or more goals we win this, you can select the Asian handicap bet that best suits £150. Why? We are giving Rosenborg a 2 goal and 2.5 your needs. goal start in this game so in order for Chelsea to win in Is the above match ideal for Asian handicap betting? the asian handicapper’s eyes, they must score 3 clear Not necessarily. Here’s why: Chelsea have not met goals to negate the 2 goal and 2.5 goal advantage given to Rosenborg before. We cannot gauge any likely scoreline the opposition. based upon previous meetings. Do we know enough If Chelsea win by 2 you will lose £50. Let’s look at about Rosenborg? I have said before, time and again, the final score from an asian handicapper’s eyes. Chelsea that to profit from football, we should be focussed on 2 – Rosenborg 2 OR Chelsea 2 – Rosenborg 4 5 what we know, be it teams in the Premiership or League one or wherever. Chelsea drew with a –2 goal disadvantage and lost giving away a 2 5 goal disadvantage. The essence to Do we know the team news? Is Didier Drogba playing? What team is Jose Mourinho going to select?

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Are Rosenborg going to play defensively? issue, Paul has posted further profits this month. .A full breakdown of his results can be found at BOTTOM LINE http://www.racing-index.com/tipsters/tipster- Asian handicap betting can be a lucrative pastime if performance.php. I can verify that the bets listed are the we can get an above average strike rate. Base your bets bets received by me daily. on research, past head to heads, and the odds for the team www.laycrazy.com : 14 lays who have won their races with the minus goal disadvantage and you can make an from 68 is not an ideal from a “professional service”, and informed betting decision. at reasonably big odds. Other factors to note include whether the game is a derby game, whether the game is a relegation battle or, TESTERS’ FEEDBACK indeed, a title battle? In which country is the game taking Thanks must go to all the testers who have place? Italy for instance slants towards getting a 1-0 lead volunteered their time and provided some excellent and defending. Spanish top class teams look to attack, feedback. Going through the myriad emails and attack,.attack! Is the game a one off, like an FA Cup Final categorising feedback by system, it becomes clearer for instance? In cases of one off matches, or matches which systems have the potential to work and, of course, where teams haven’t met before, don’t consider a bet. those systems which should be put down! I have a couple of Asian handicap tipsters lined up in Racing2Profit: Still ticking along nicely. One tester the wings and will monitor these on your behalf. But go describes the system as a slow burner with nice small out, have some fun, paper trade and see how you get on. profit week on week Our ability to back at evens or thereabouts with Lawrence Taylor’s LayingtoWin: bookmakers means that, if we can secure a decent strike www.topbettingsystems.com/horse3331.htm Just kicking rate, we can profit well. off with week 5 and ,of course, highly inconclusive. The proof of the pudding (or meat pie) is in the eating around SYSTEMS AND April time. TIPSTERS UPDATE The Simplex Trading System: A potentially dangerous staking plan with this system and the www.kenneth-j-wilson-racingservices.co.uk: Only 7 potential for us to end up in trouble if any football bets in the period since I last updated and 2 winners at anomolies occur. Yes, the results I’m looking for have 15/8 and 6/4. The latter, Authorised on 21st August, was a arrived with a few teams this past week. We must always poor selection from a layer’s perspective and when we are look at worse case scenarios and the figures are scary if dealing with a small amount of monthly selections, these the worst was to happen. Again, a system worth looking winners have a greater impact. Lays lost at 5/2, 7/4, 8/11, back on come April. 7/2, and 7/4. Good short prices. Saver and Safebet Plan : A mixed bag in August with www.leeohare.com: A new rule in place not to lay the longest losing run of 6 and few winners. However, over 4/1 (although I am not sure if this is 4/1 SP or its turning into September, 9 winners help stem the tide from decimal equivalent on Betfair) seems to have focussed a disappointing August. Another reader email thanked me this service on delivering largely short prices 17 for pointing him in the direction of the Saver and selections this month since I last wrote, 3 wins at SP Safebetplan – his betting bank has doubled despite the 15/8, 6/4 and 6/4. An improvement on a poor August lull! July/August, winninglays at 11/10, 4/6, 7/2, 2/1, 6/4, 7/4, www.winintennis.co.uk : No real progress made since I 3/1, 10/3, 2/1, 10/3, 7/2, 11/4, 3/1 and 11/4 SP last updated. You really will need the patience of a saint http://www.trainerflatstats.com / Still in a negative and the faith of a monk to see £100K return from position this month with the winners and placed horse not winintennis. Initially a reader’s recommendation, compensating for the losers. Operating to £25 each way winintennis seems flawed to me. Too many short priced stakes (total loss £50 after an unplaced horse) a 17 point losers and winners at prices too short to compensate leave loss in total has accrued. The positives? A decent priced us consistently treading water. A 4% staking plan winner or 2 will quickly wipe this out. The negatives are compounded is good theoretically but the strike rate if clear to see at present. consistently selecting odds on shots has to be exceptional www.winningracingtips.co.uk : Paul Ruffy and consistent to see a return. concentrates on each way betting which has enabled him, in some instances to reduce losses with payouts for ADVICE SHEETS placed horses. Paul has been away doing Marathons and I would class the next 2 services not so much as such and has not updated his results list. Since the last tipsters, rather advice sheets please turn over 11 WRWM_Sept07.qxd:WRWM_Sept07 19/9/07 16:23 Page 12

www.kachinaracing.co.uk: This advice sheet had a And Finally... good Doncaster and performed well in the top class meetings. With the jumps season upon us, I hope his contacts can point us in the direction of plotted horses How a Mild-Mannered www.mathematician-betting.co.uk : Difficult to Yorkshire Man Could quantify from a profit and loss point of view but still some quality informed statsistical information Help You to Compound OTHER Massive Winnings Please note that I am unable to access www.back-lay- Backing Favourites trade-horses-football.blogspot.com and have now reverted to www.clivekeeling.spaces.live.com. The new approach ou know how much I go on about the benefits to each way betting has proved hugely effective in the last Yof compounding - those small regular gains 3 days – looking for obvious candidates. I try to explain that can add up to big long-term profits. my reasoning behind all bets to help you help yourself. I will also be trying out some Asian handicap betting. I You also know I'm a big fan of progressive staking have an idea that perhaps we can engineer some insurance plans as long as the strike rate is sufficiently high to bets against our Asian handicap bet not coming off, by minimise any losing runs. But what if we could marry backing certain outcomes in other markets? Plenty to progressive staking with the power of compounding - chew on and play around with on the blog . . . surely we'd be on to a winner? Well I think I've found the perfect way to exploit it. NEWBIES Let me reaquaint you with John Hamer’s Pegasus Racing I am currently looking at Asian handicap tipsters and Club - this is an online tipping service that exploits both hope to have something for you soon. Some readers also compounding and progressive staking to amazing results. want me to trial some football tipsters (Richard Mark will We have been endorsing this service for well over a year NOT be one of them!). This I will look into. I am and continue to be highly impressed by the results. currently trialling some interesting reader systems and The recommended starting bank of £1,200 would another advice sheet which focuses specifically on high have almost doubled to £2,376.50 since the beginning quality horse races – more on that as the database grows. of 2007. There’s a couple of interesting concepts I want to Since Jan last year they clocked at total of more follow up, and I have begun trialling a number of systems than £21,613.65! specifically focussed on you being in a position to make selections the night before. And since January 2005 when the service launched, you could have made £36,209.25! Please get in touch at [email protected] if you would like to test systems, and let me know if you are And all these gains were made from relatively small able to follow the live market especially on Betfair as I daily gains reinvested! For full details please take a look cannot possibly trial all of these live market systems myself. at the information enclosed with this issue. I do need lay system testers more than anything else.

It is my intention to be as accurate in fact, detail and comment as possible. However, the publishers and their representatives cannot be held responsible for any error in detail, accuracy or judgement whatsoever. What Really Wins Money is sold on this understanding. ISSN: 1741 9018 All subscription correspondence to: What Really Wins Money , Subscription Office, Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainault Road, Little Heath, Romford, RM6 5SS.Tel: 0208 597 0181 Fax: 0208 597 4040. Registered office: Canonbury Publishing Ltd. Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ. Registered in England No. 4765425 Vat Reg No. 811 5700 64 © Copyright What Really Wins Money 2007