SHARP SPORTS BETTING BY STANFORD WONG PI YEE PRESS copyright © 2001, 2006, 2009, 2011 by Pi Yee Press Inquiries should be addressed to Pi Yee Press, 4855 W. Nevso Dr., Las Vegas, NV 89103-3787. ISBN 978-0-935926-44-6 This book is dedicated to Bob Martin (1918-2001), Nevada’s first great linesmaker. The lines he crafted for the Churchill Downs sportsbook in the 1960s became known internationally as “the Las Vegas line.” ABOUT THE AUTHOR Stanford Wong has made a name for himself through books, newsletters, software, and the Internet. He loves to solve puzzles. Of course he has done his share of winning at gambling games. When he was in graduate school, playing blackjack was his major source of income, and he stayed in school long enough to earn a Ph.D. from Stanford. He published his first book, Professional Blackjack, in 1975 while a student at Stanford. Wong is a frequent contributor to the message boards on his website, BJ21.com, which is devoted to discussion of getting an edge at casino games. Table of Contents PREFACE LIST OF TABLES CHAPTER 1 HOW TO PLACE BETS Where to Bet Sports Which Sports? How to Bet Sports Multiple Max Bets Cashing Tickets Bobby Bryde on Lost Tickets Backed Off? The Rest of This Book CHAPTER 2 MONEY MANAGEMENT MinWin MinEdge The Argument for Flat Bets The Argument for Varying Bets Bankroll Size Simultaneous Bets Bankroll and MinEdge Determine MinWin Credit What Percent Winners? Estimating Your Edge The Big Concern Sample Problems Solutions to Sample Problems CHAPTER 3 BETTING SPORTS ON THE INTERNET Legality of Internet Sportsbooks Betting Online Bonuses Depositing Funds Withdrawing Funds Avoid Being Pegged as Undesirable A Bookmaker Speaks Email Received by “James” If You Are Pegged as a Winner Bettor Beware Offshore Books as a Source of Betting Information Conclusion CHAPTER 4 BASIC MATH OF STRAIGHT BETS Bets at -110 Vig at -110 Terms Other Than -110 Break-Even Win Rates Expected Value Sample Problems Solutions to Sample Problems CHAPTER 5 HANDICAPPING Best Simple Strategy Early Lines Why Lines Change Getting an Edge Attitude While Handicapping Another Book to Check Out Last Word CHAPTER 6 FAN MONEY World Cup Soccer NBA Playoffs, 2000 De La Hoya vs. Mosley De La Hoya vs. Trinidad Willie’s Last Ride Winning Colors CHAPTER 7 TESTING W-L RECORDS FOR SIGNIFICANCE Forming the Hypothesis Testing the Hypothesis Interpreting the Results Standard Deviation of a Binomial Distribution Sample Problems Solutions to Sample Problems CHAPTER 8 PARLAYS Parlays Off The Board Parlay Cards Correlated Parlays Conclusion CHAPTER 9 POISSON PROPS Three-Step Process How Many of Something How Many vs. How Many Summary Sample Problems Solutions to Sample Problems CHAPTER 10 SEASON WINS Time Value of Money Middles on Season Wins Single Bets on Season Wins Another Place to Find the Math Sample Problems Solutions to Sample Problems CHAPTER 11 MARCH MADNESS O/U PROPS Tournament Structure Method Example: PAC 10 Overview Back to the PAC 10 Sample Problems Solutions to Sample Problems CHAPTER 12 NFL HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE Points Scored Games Won Three Points Getting an Edge Advice From “The Renegade” Advice From “Big Player” Advice From Frank Polo Conclusion CHAPTER 13 NFL RESULTS AGAINST THE SPREAD CHAPTER 14 NFL MONEY LINE VS. SPREAD Frequencies of Pushes: Raw Data Frequencies of Pushes: Indexes Buying a Half Point Using Table 20 Games Predicted to be Close Relating Spread to Money Lines Data From NFL Games Sample Problems Solutions to Sample Problems CHAPTER 15 NFL TOTALS Totals of Totals Pushes on Totals CHAPTER 16 NFL TEASERS Frequency of Covers With More Points Teasing into a Tie Six-Point Teaser 6.5-Point Teaser Seven-Point Teaser Choosing Teams to Tease Tease Teams In Different Games Internet Teaser Caution CHAPTER 17 FACING THE SUPER-BOWL CHAMPION 1985: San Francisco 1986: Chicago 1987: New York Giants 1988: Washington 1989: San Francisco 1990: San Francisco 1991: New York Giants 1992: Washington 1993: Dallas 1994: Dallas 1995: San Francisco 1996: Dallas 1997: Green Bay 1998: Denver 1999: Denver 2000: St. Louis 2001: Baltimore 2002: New England 2003: Tampa Bay 2004: New England 2005: New England 2006: Pittsburgh 2007: Indianapolis 2008: NY Giants 2009: Pittsburgh 2010: New Orleans Summaries Win-Loss Summary APPENDIX A POISSON, ONE VARIABLE APPENDIX B POISSON, ONE VARIABLE, CUMULATIVE APPENDIX C TWO VARIABLES GLOSSARY BIBLIOGRAPHY CONTACT INFORMATION PREFACE Early drafts of this book were posted chapter by chapter on BJ21.com. Comments made by BJ21.com’s green chippers have been incorporated into the final version of the book. Sharp Sports Betting is a better book because of that feedback. That process allowed the book to be finished more quickly than would have been the case had draft chapters not been posted to the Internet. If you write a book of your own, I heartily recommend posting it on the Internet chapter by chapter as you are writing it. Don Schlesinger has been most helpful in improving the manuscript. David Matthews wrote the first draft of chapter 3, “Betting Sports on the Internet,” and helped edit the whole book. That chapter was revised for the 2006 edition with the help of Goats and Eddie Dingle. Some of the tables in this book might be images, which cannot be read as text. If you want to access those tables in a format that can be read as text, go to: http://BJ21.com/books/SSB/tables.shtml. LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Break-Even Win Rates for Sports Bets Table 2 Bets Expressed as Ratios Table 3 Winning Colors, 1988 Kentucky Derby Table 4 Rarity of Good W-L Records Table 5 Parlay Odds Table 6 Conversions for Parlays Table 7 Chance of Having More When Many of Both Are Expected Table 8 Probability of Middle: Average Team Table 9 Probability of Middle: Team that Expects 60% wins Table 10 Probability of Middle: Team that Expects 75% wins Table 11 Probability of Average Team Winning Enough Games to Cover a Bet on Total Wins Table 12 Estimated Wins by Seed, Single-Elimination 64-Team Tournament Table 13 NFL Regular-Season Points Table 14 Straight-Up Wins in NFL Regular Season Table 15 NFL Regular-Season Wins if Visitors Given Three Points Table 16 NFL Results Against the Spread Table 19 NFL Frequencies of Being Within Two Points of a Push ATS Table 20 NFL Frequencies of Pushes Against the Spread Table 21 Probability of Winning, Money Line, and Spread, for NFL Games Table 22 NFL Straight-Up Win-Loss Records Table 23 Number of NFL Games Resulting in Various Totals Table 24 Pushes on Totals on NFL Games Table 25 Frequencies of Pushes on NFL Totals Table 26 Typical NFL Teaser Payouts Table 27 NFL Results if Given More Points, Regular-Season Games, 1999-2010 Table 28 Teasers: Break-Even Win Rates Table 29 Raw Teaser Data 1999-2010 Table 30 Super Bowl Results Table A1 Poisson, One Variable Mean 0 to 1 Table A2 Poisson, One Variable Mean 1 to 2 Table A3 Poisson, One Variable Mean 2 to 3 Table A4 Poisson, One Variable Mean 3 to 4 Table A5 Poisson, One Variable Mean 4 to 5 Table A6 Poisson, One Variable Mean 5 to 6 Table A7 Poisson, One Variable Mean 6 to 7 Table A8 Poisson, One Variable Mean 7 to 8 Table A9 Poisson, One Variable Mean 8 to 10 Table A10 Poisson, One Variable Mean 10 to 12 Table A11 Poisson, One Variable Mean 12 to 14 Table A12 Poisson, One Variable Mean 14 to 16 Table A13 Poisson, One Variable Mean 16 to 18 Table A14 Poisson, One Variable Mean 19 to 28 Table A15 Poisson, One Variable Mean 29 to 38 Table B1 Poisson, One Variable Cumulative Mean 0 to 1 Table B2 Poisson, One Variable Cumulative Mean 1 to 2 Table B3 Poisson, One Variable Cumulative Mean 2 to 3 Table B4 Poisson, One Variable Cumulative Mean 3 to 4 Table B5 Poisson, One Variable Cumulative Mean 4 to 5 Table B6 Poisson, One Variable Cumulative Mean 5 to 6 Table B7 Poisson, One Variable Cumulative Mean 6 to 7 Table B8 Poisson, One Variable Cumulative Mean 7 to 8 Table B9 Poisson, One Variable Cumulative Mean 8 to 10 Table B10 Poisson, One Variable Cumulative Mean 10 to 12 Table B11 Poisson, One Variable Cumulative Mean 12 to 14 Table B12 Poisson, One Variable Cumulative Mean 14 to 16 Table B13 Poisson, One Variable Cumulative Mean 16 to 18 Table B14 Poisson, One Variable Cumulative Mean 19 to 28 Table B15 Poisson, One Variable Cumulative Mean 29 to 38 Table C1 Win-Lose-Push A is 0 to 3, B is 0 to 0.5 Table C2 Win-Lose-Push A is 0 to 3, B is 0.6 to 1 Table C3 Win-Lose-Push A is 1 to 4, B is 1 to 1.5 Table C4 Win-Lose-Push A is 1 to 4, B is 1.6 to 2 Table C5 Win-Lose-Push A is 2 to 8, B is 12 to 3 Table C6 Win-Lose-Push A is 2 to 8, B is 3 to 4 Table C7 Win-Lose-Push A is 4 to 10, B is 4 to 5 Table C8 Win-Lose-Push A is 4 to 10, B is 5 to 6 Table C9 Win-Lose-Push A is 6 to 20, B is 6 to 8 Table C10 Win-Lose-Push A is 6 to 20, B is 8 to 10 Table C11 Win-Lose-Push A is 10 to 24, B is 11 to 13 Table C12 Win-Lose-Push A is 10 to 24, B is 14 to 15 Table 7 Chance of Having More When Many of Both Are Expected CHAPTER 1 HOW TO PLACE BETS Sharp Sports Betting is a tool for those interested in winning money at sports betting.