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AXIS of Convenience Moscow, Beijing, and the New Geopolitics AXiS of ConvenienCe MOSCOW, BEIJING, AND THE NEW GEOPOLITICS Bobo Lo 00-5340-7 FM 9/5/08 3:05 PM Page i AXIS OF CONVENIENCE 00-5340-7 FM 9/5/08 3:05 PM Page ii 00-5340-7 FM 9/5/08 3:05 PM Page iii AXIS OF CONVENIENCE MOSCOW, BEIJING, AND THE NEW GEOPOLITICS Bobo Lo chatham house London brookings institution press Washington, D.C. 00-5340-7 FM 9/5/08 3:05 PM Page iv Copyright © 2008 ROYAL INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS Chatham House (the Royal Institute of International Affairs) is an independent body which promotes the rigorous study of international questions and does not express opinions of its own. The opinions expressed in this publication are the responsibility of the author. Chatham House, 10 St. James’s Square, London SW1Y 4LE (www.chathamhouse.org.uk); charity registration no 208223. Axis of Convenience: Moscow, Beijing, and the New Geopolitics may be ordered from: BROOKINGS INSTITUTION PRESS c/o HFS, P.O. Box 50370, Baltimore, MD 21211-4370 Tel.: 800/537-5487; 410/516-6956; Fax: 410/516-6998 Internet: www.brookings.edu All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Brookings Institution Press. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data Lo, Bobo, 1959– Axis of convenience : Moscow, Beijing, and the new geopolitics / Bobo Lo. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8157-5340-7 (cloth : alk. paper) 1. Russia (Federation)—Foreign relations—China. 2. China—Foreign relations—Russia (Federation) 3. Geopolitics—Russia (Federation) 4. Geopolitics—China. I. Title. JZ1616.A57C45 2008 327.47051—dc22 2008028108 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 The paper used in this publication meets minimum requirements of the American National Standard for Information Sciences—Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials: ANSI Z39.48-1992. Typeset in Minion and Univers Condensed Composition by R. Lynn Rivenbark Macon, Georgia Cartography by Meridian Mapping Minneapolis, Minnesota Printed by R. R. Donnelley Harrisonburg, Virginia 00-5340-7 FM 9/5/08 3:05 PM Page v To my gorgeous Siriol 00-5340-7 FM 9/5/08 3:05 PM Page vi 00-5340-7 FM 9/5/08 3:05 PM Page vii CONTENTS Acknowledgments xi 1 Cooperation, Ambiguity and Tension 1 Axis of convenience 3 The new geopolitics 5 The policy context 7 The many faces of Sino-Russian relations 9 2 The Burden of History 17 Russia’s “Mongol complex” 18 Mutual isolation 19 The age of imperialism 21 “Fraternal” relations and the Sino-Soviet split 23 From tension to confrontation and back 26 Gorbachev’s initiatives 27 The Yeltsin-Jiang years 29 Great expectations, partial achievements 30 Geopolitics and instrumentalism 32 Duality and ambivalence 35 3 Strategic Partnership—Image and Reality 38 Defining strategic partnership 40 Sino-Russian “strategic partnership” 41 The Russian agenda 43 The Chinese agenda 45 vii 00-5340-7 FM 9/5/08 3:05 PM Page viii viii Contents Latent tensions 47 The myth of identical views—the case of strategic stability 50 The values gap 52 A relationship of tactical convenience? 53 The axis of convenience 54 4 The “Yellow Peril”—Engagement in the Russian Far East 56 The task facing Putin 58 Chinese “illegal migration” 59 Social and civilizational challenges 62 Chinese policy 63 Russian attitudes 65 A failure of strategy 66 Interregional trade 67 The Russian Far East and Sino-Russian “strategic partnership” 69 An uncertain future 70 5 “Peaceful Rise” and the Shifting Sino-Russian Balance 73 The military balance 74 Chinese military planning 78 Russian arms transfers to China 79 China’s “peaceful rise” and the implications for Russia 80 The economic balance 81 The trade imbalance 84 Asymmetrical partnership 86 6 Cooperation and Competition in Central Asia 91 The 9/11 effect—the Russian perspective 93 The 9/11 effect—the Chinese perspective 95 A new Great Game? 97 Competing agendas—the view from Moscow 98 Chinese interests, strategy, and tactics 101 The Shanghai Cooperation Organization 104 Russia and China in the SCO 110 Strategic partnership or emergent competition? 113 7 East Asia—Arena of the Great Powers 115 “The cauldron of civilizations” 116 China’s emergence 117 Russian policy toward East Asia 120 Chinese reactions to Russia’s Asian policy 127 The expedient relationship 128 00-5340-7 FM 9/5/08 3:05 PM Page ix Contents ix 8 The Geopolitics of Energy 132 Imperfect complementarities 133 The role of energy in Russian foreign policy 135 Just business—Chinese energy policy 141 More problems than solutions—the ESPO saga 143 Learning the lessons 146 Russia between East and West 148 Faking it—Russia as an “energy superpower” 150 Growing asymmetry 151 9 The Grand Chessboard Revisited—Russia, China, and the United States 154 The “Grand Chessboard” 155 Strategic triangularism—genesis and development 157 Triangularism in the post–Cold War era 159 The bankruptcy of triangularism 160 A new lease of life 162 Putin’s agenda for a resurgent Russia 163 Beijing’s globalist agenda 165 Strategic balancing versus strategic inclusion 168 The re-emergence of strategic anarchy 169 Evolution of the Grand Chessboard 170 10 Conclusion—From “Strategic Partnership” to Strategic Tension 173 Finding a middle way 174 The axis of convenience 180 The future 183 Five scenarios for the long term 183 Final thoughts 194 Notes 197 Index 267 00-5340-7 FM 9/5/08 3:05 PM Page x x Contents Maps Russia and China xiv Changes in the Sino-Russian Border, Nineteenth Century 22 Central Asia 90 Oil and Gas Pipelines in Eastern Siberia and the Far East 142 Tables 5-1. Sino-Russian Trade, 1992–2007 87 6-1. Russian Trade with Central Asia, 1994–2007 99 6-2. Chinese Trade with Central Asia, 1992–2007 102 Figure 5-1. Comparison between Russian and Chinese Gross Domestic Product, 1992–2007 83 00-5340-7 FM 9/5/08 3:05 PM Page xi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS When I first contemplated a career of creative endeavor, I little imagined how arduous the road would be. There was, I recognized, more to the mat- ter than just thinking “great thoughts” while quaffing a glass (or several) of a fine Sancerre. But I must confess to underestimating the grueling nature of the process. This book has been more than usually demanding. That I have managed to survive the experience is almost entirely due to many wonder- ful people who have suffered with me, pushed me, and helped me every step of the way. My wife, Siriol, has shown extraordinary patience, putting up with all manner of unreasonable behavior, as well as offering numerous critical sug- gestions on various versions of the book. James Nixey is the heart and soul of Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Programme. He has borne my mood swings with great stoicism, while finding the time to balance a huge admin- istrative workload, pursue his own research interests, and read the text with painstaking thoroughness. Margaret May, head of publications at Chatham House, performs miracles in sustaining the institute’s intellectual reputa- tion—a feat not adequately recognized. Her sharp editorial eye, vast knowl- edge, and superb judgment are every author’s dream. I owe her an especially large debt. A number of outstanding (if slightly terrifying) experts have offered invaluable advice and insights, and made many improvements to the text. They have striven mightily on my behalf. Thank you to Kerry Brown, Mary Dejevsky, Peter Duncan, Aage Espedal, Feng Shaolei, Peter Ferdinand, Phil xi 00-5340-7 FM 9/5/08 3:05 PM Page xii xii Acknowledgments Hanson, Shoichi Itoh, Akihiro Iwashita, Natasha Kührt, John Lough, Andrew Monaghan, John Mitchell, Magnus Norman, Keun-Wook Paik, Anthony Phillips, Alex Pravda, Andy Rothman, Alexandra Siddall, Volker Stanzel, Angela Stent, Jonathan Stern, Kyle Wilson, and Andrew Wood. This book is the product of numerous research trips, during which I have had the good fortune to meet and get to know some leading authorities on Russia, China, and Central Asia. In addition to people already mentioned, I should like to single out Viktor Larin, Jörg Wuttke, Zhao Huasheng, Yu Bin, Paul French, and Birgit Brauer. I have benefited enormously from the enthusiastic research assistance of some excellent interns at the Russia and Eurasia Programme, most notably the remarkable Alex Nice, Botagoz Shantemirova, Ilze Gelnere, and Irina Ghaplanyan. Thank you also to Abdujalil Abdurasulov, Szymon Ananicz, Khurshid Faizullaev, Artem Kossenko, Eteri Mamrikishvili, and Yulia Oleinik. The work of the interns has been greatly assisted by senior librarian Mary Bone, another of the unsung heroes of Chatham House. I am very grateful to the team at Brookings Institution Press: Bob Faherty for inviting me to write for such a prestigious publishing house; Janet Walker for her many wise suggestions to improve the text; Chris Kelaher, Robin Becht, and Susan Soldavin for the great publicity; Susan Woollen for produc- ing such a cool cover design; and Larry Converse for expert management of the typesetting and printing. Over the years, I have been blessed to enjoy the love and wholehearted support of great friends. Thank you to Bruce and Lyn Minerds, Linda Kou- varas and Richard Ward, Steve Shay and Nicola Cade, Lizzy Fisher and Rohit Jaggi, Liz Scott and Dusan Mihajlovic, Ole and Berit Lindeman, Emily Gale, Alex Pravda and Riitta Heino, Kostya and Natasha Eggert, Herbie Flowers and Claire Lacey, Glenn and Agnes Waller, Justine Braithwaite and Dave Pee- bles, Guy Chazan, Andrei Ryabov, Deborah Bronnert and Alf Torrents, and Dmitri and Vera Trenin.
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