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Monthly Bulletin, September 2001

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Monthly Bulletin, September 2001 MONTHLY BULLETIN September 2001 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK EN ECB EZB EKT BCE EKP BULLETIN MONTHLY September 2001 MONTHLY BULLETIN September 2001 © European Central Bank, 2001 Address Kaiserstrasse 29 D-60311 Frankfurt am Main Germany Postal address Postfach 16 03 19 D-60066 Frankfurt am Main Germany Telephone +49 69 1344 0 Internet http://www.ecb.int Fax +49 69 1344 6000 Telex 411 144 ecb d This Bulletin was produced under the responsibility of the Executive Board of the ECB. Translations are prepared and published by the national central banks. All rights reserved. Reproduction for educational and non-commercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. The cut-off date for the statistics included in this issue was 13 September 2001. ISSN 1561-0136 Contents Editorial 5 Economic developments in the euro area 7 Monetary and financial developments 7 Price developments 29 Output, demand and labour market developments 36 Fiscal developments 47 The global macroeconomic environment, exchange rates and the balance of payments 49 Boxes: 1 Implications of the cash changeover for currency in circulation and monetary aggregates in the euro area 10 2 Financing and investment of the non-financial sectors of the euro area in 2000 14 3 Monetary policy operations and liquidity conditions in the reserve maintenance period ending on 23 August 2001 18 4 Recent declines in commodity prices easing upward pressures on producer prices 32 5 The August 2001 Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) 35 6 The sensitivity of euro area growth to the measurement of ICT prices 41 7 Commodity and geographical breakdown of euro area external trade 58 Euro area statistics 1* Chronology of monetary policy measures of the Eurosystem 85* The TARGET (Trans-European Automated Real-time Gross settlement Express Transfer system) 91* Documents published by the European Central Bank (ECB) 93* ECB • Monthly Bulletin • September 2001 3 Abbreviations Countries BE Belgium DK Denmark DE Germany GR Greece ES Spain FR France IE Ireland IT Italy LU Luxembourg NL Netherlands AT Austria PT Portugal FI Finland SE Sweden UK United Kingdom JP Japan US United States Others BIS Bank for International Settlements BPM5 IMF Balance of Payments Manual (5th edition) CDs certificates of deposit c.i.f. cost, insurance and freight at the importer’s border CPI Consumer Price Index ECB European Central Bank ECU European Currency Unit EMI European Monetary Institute ESA 95 European System of Accounts 1995 ESCB European System of Central Banks EU European Union EUR euro f.o.b. free on board at the exporter’s border GDP gross domestic product HICP Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices ILO International Labour Organization IMF International Monetary Fund MFIs Monetary Financial Institutions NACE Rev. 1 Statistical classification of economic activities in the European Community NCBs national central banks repos repurchase agreements SITC Rev. 3 Standard International Trade Classification (revision 3) In accordance with Community practice, the EU countries are listed in this Bulletin using the alphabetical order of the country names in the national languages. 4 ECB • Monthly Bulletin • September 2001 Editorial Following the terrorist attacks on 11 entered into a swap agreement with the September, the Governing Council of the ECB Federal Reserve System and provided dollar expressed its deep grief at the unprecedented deposits to the national central banks of the events and offered its deepest sympathy and Eurosystem. condolences to all those affected. The Governing Council also expressed the belief In the recent monetary policy decisions, the that the fundamental strength and resilience following factors shaped the Governing of the US economic system will not be Council’s assessment of the risks to price impaired by recent events. stability in the euro area. In the view of the Governing Council, the With regard to the first pillar of the ECB’s recent events have increased uncertainty monetary policy strategy, the three-month about the US and the world economy. They average of the annual growth rates of M3 was are also likely to weigh on confidence in the 5.9% in the period from May to July 2001. euro area and on the short-term outlook for This figure needs to be corrected for holdings economic growth. At the same time, this of money market paper and short-term debt should further reduce inflationary risks in the securities by non-euro area residents, which, euro area. according to preliminary estimates, have contributed around three-quarters of a Against this background, on 17 September percentage point to annual M3 growth. The 2001 the Governing Council, in concert with increase in the annual rate of growth of M3 an equivalent decision by the Federal Open over the past few months must be interpreted Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve carefully. It reflects the relatively flat yield System, decided to reduce the minimum bid curve and the weakness in stock markets, rate on the Eurosystem’s main refinancing both of which made it attractive to hold operations by 50 basis points to 3.75%. The short-term deposits and marketable paper interest rates on the marginal lending facility included in M3. It also reflects the fact that and the deposit facility were also lowered consumers needed a higher level of transaction by 50 basis points, to 4.75% and 2.75% balances to finance the past rise in energy and respectively. This decision followed a food prices. Recent increases in M3 growth reduction in the ECB’s key interest rates by may thus be transitory and do not necessarily 25 basis points on 30 August 2001 in the light imply a risk for price stability in the medium of evidence which had accumulated over the term. In addition, the annual rate of growth summer pointing to an improved outlook for in loans to the private sector continued to price developments. decline from high levels over recent months. Given the strong fundamentals of the euro As regards the second pillar, already prior to area, the Governing Council remains the events of 11 September, the information confident that the slowdown in economic available signalled lower inflationary pressures growth will be short-lived. from the demand side. Euro area real GDP growth slowed in the first half of this year by After the attacks, the world’s major central more than was projected a few months ago. banks also acted to support the normal On the domestic demand side, the negative functioning of financial markets. In the euro impact on real disposable income of the area, the Eurosystem conducted several increases in oil and food prices has been liquidity-providing fine tuning operations in stronger than expected. On the external side, order to smooth developments in the euro the slowdown in economic activity in the money market. In addition, it helped to meet United States and the persistent economic urgent US dollar liquidity needs of European weakness in Japan, as well as the spillover to banks by conducting foreign exchange swaps. other regions of the world, have been greater To facilitate such transactions, the ECB than previously anticipated. The less ECB • Monthly Bulletin • September 2001 5 favourable external environment, together vigilance and competitive pressures should with dampening effects on profitability from attenuate possible temporary upward effects past increases in oil prices, has also had a stemming from the cash changeover. In negative impact on business investment. addition, governments have announced their intention to ensure that the conversion of In the coming months, inflation rates are likely prices, charges and fees administered by them to fall as the direct and indirect upward will be price-neutral or smoothed in favour effects from the past increases in energy and of the consumer. import prices fade out. Moreover, the upward impact on inflation from recent shocks to The prospect of lower growth in the euro area food prices should soon start to recede. The negatively affects the outlook for public sector further declines in the annual rates of increase budgets, but it is essential that this does not of producer and consumer prices in July 2001 affect the determination of governments in the provide encouraging signs that the past euro area to adhere strictly to the Stability and increase in inflation has been temporary. In Growth Pact. A re-interpretation of the Pact fact, in the absence of further unfavourable must not be considered. The Pact clearly focuses shocks, it can be expected that HICP inflation on nominal targets for the overall budget will return to levels below 2% in the not too balance of the general government. These distant future. The decline in inflation, nominal targets have been instrumental in the together with the tax reductions implemented attainment of sound budgetary positions by a earlier this year, should contribute to an majority of countries in the past. In assessing increase in real disposable income, thereby nominal budgetary positions, cyclical supporting consumer spending. developments have to be taken into account in a transparent way, which is consistent with Looking ahead, it is essential that the process the main thrust of the Pact. In the current of wage moderation observed in past years phase of lower economic growth, countries continue. Two factors support the view that with remaining fiscal imbalances need to this might indeed be the case. First, the ensure that the deviation from the targets slowdown in economic activity should set out in their latest stability programmes contribute to limiting inflationary pressure remains limited. Scope to let the automatic stemming from the labour market. Second, stabilisers work fully exists only in those the decline in consumer price inflation should countries where budget positions are close help to contain inflation expectations of to balance or in surplus.
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