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Monthly Bulletin, February 2002

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Monthly Bulletin, February 2002 MONTHLY BULLETIN February 2002 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK EN ECB EZB EKT BCE EKP BULLETIN MONTHLY February 2002 MONTHLY BULLETIN February 2002 © European Central Bank, 2002 Address Kaiserstrasse 29 D-60311 Frankfurt am Main Germany Postal address Postfach 16 03 19 D-60066 Frankfurt am Main Germany Telephone +49 69 1344 0 Internet http://www.ecb.int Fax +49 69 1344 6000 Telex 411 144 ecb d This Bulletin was produced under the responsibility of the Executive Board of the ECB. Translations are prepared and published by the national central banks. All rights reserved. Reproduction for educational and non-commercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. The cut-off date for the statistics included in this issue was 6 February 2002. ISSN 1561-0136 Contents Editorial 5 Economic developments in the euro area 7 Monetary and financial developments 7 Price developments 20 Output, demand and labour market developments 23 Exchange rate and balance of payments developments 33 Boxes: 1 Monetary policy operations and liquidity conditions in the reserve maintenance period ending on 23 January 2002 12 2 Deriving long-term euro area inflation expectations from index-linked bonds issued by the French Treasury 16 3 Business survey data for activity in the euro area services sectors 27 4 The information content of job vacancies in the euro area 32 The stock market and monetary policy 39 Recent developments in international co-operation 53 Euro area statistics 1* Chronology of monetary policy measures of the Eurosystem 81* Documents published by the European Central Bank (ECB) 87* ECB • Monthly Bulletin • February 2002 3 Abbreviations Countries BE Belgium DK Denmark DE Germany GR Greece ES Spain FR France IE Ireland IT Italy LU Luxembourg NL Netherlands AT Austria PT Portugal FI Finland SE Sweden UK United Kingdom JP Japan US United States Others BIS Bank for International Settlements BPM5 IMF Balance of Payments Manual (5th edition) CDs certificates of deposit c.i.f. cost, insurance and freight at the importer’s border CPI Consumer Price Index ECB European Central Bank ECU European Currency Unit EER effective exchange rate EMI European Monetary Institute ESA 95 European System of Accounts 1995 ESCB European System of Central Banks EU European Union EUR euro f.o.b. free on board at the exporter’s border GDP gross domestic product HICP Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices ILO International Labour Organization IMF International Monetary Fund MFIs Monetary Financial Institutions NACE Rev. 1 Statistical classification of economic activities in the European Community NCBs national central banks PPI Producer Price Index repos repurchase agreements SITC Rev. 3 Standard International Trade Classification (revision 3) ULCM Unit Labour Costs in Manufacturing In accordance with Community practice, the EU countries are listed in this Bulletin using the alphabetical order of the country names in the national languages. 4 ECB • Monthly Bulletin • February 2002 Editorial At its meeting on 7 February 2002, the the current favourable financing conditions, Governing Council of the ECB decided to by the economic fundamentals of the euro leave the minimum bid rate on the main area, which remain sound, and by higher refinancing operations of the Eurosystem growth in real disposable income stemming unchanged at 3.25%. The interest rates on from the past and expected future decline in the marginal lending facility and the deposit inflation. Financial market developments also facility were also left unchanged at 4.25% and reflect expectations of a recovery in 2.25% respectively. economic activity in the period ahead. Overall, although the timing and strength of This decision reflects the assessment that the the upturn remain uncertain, the available outlook for price stability over the medium evidence points to a resumption of economic term has remained broadly unchanged over growth. the past few weeks. The Governing Council considers the current level of key ECB Regarding consumer price inflation, the interest rates as appropriate to maintain price current expectation is that medium-term stability over the medium term. inflationary pressures will remain contained. However, as indicated in the past, annual Starting with the analysis under the first pillar inflation rates at the beginning of this year of the ECB’s monetary policy strategy, the will be somewhat erratic. A preliminary three-month average of the annual growth estimate provided by Eurostat points to an rates of M3 rose from 7.4% in the period increase in annual HICP inflation to 2.5% in from September to November 2001 to 7.8% January 2002, from 2.1% in December 2001. in the period from October to December. The recent rise in inflation should not have The build-up of liquidity reflected in these medium-term consequences, as it was largely data occurred in an economic and financial due to exceptional and short-lived factors, environment characterised by relatively high such as particularly adverse weather uncertainty and should therefore only be conditions in some parts of the euro area, temporary. In this respect, the high growth in which led to strong increases in unprocessed M3 should not be seen as signalling upward food prices. As anticipated, it also reflected risks to price stability thus far. This some effects stemming from higher indirect assessment is supported by the declining taxes and unfavourable base effects resulting trend in the growth rate of loans to the from falling energy prices in early 2001. There private sector. However, continued strong is no evidence thus far of a significant upward M3 growth could call for a reassessment of impact on the price level from the euro cash monetary developments, especially if there is changeover. Rather, there is reason to believe further evidence of a recovery in the euro that the introduction of the euro banknotes area economy. and coins will strengthen competition, thereby supporting the maintenance of price Turning to the analysis under the second stability. pillar, while euro area production growth in the fourth quarter of last year and early this In the months to come, barring unforeseen year is likely to have remained subdued, developments, annual inflation rates should recent information has confirmed the decline, due, inter alia, to the unwinding of expectation of a gradual improvement in past increases in energy and food prices. economic activity in the course of the year. Developments in producer prices also point Uncertainty as regards the global in this direction. Overall, the current environment seems to be gradually expectation is that, in the course of 2002, decreasing. Recent survey data released in HICP inflation will stabilise at levels safely the euro area indicate that a firming of below 2%, in line with the ECB’s definition of economic activity should take place. The price stability. expectation of a recovery is underpinned by ECB • Monthly Bulletin • February 2002 5 The expectation of continued wage A medium-term orientation of fiscal policies moderation is an important element in the consistent with the Stability and Growth Pact ECB’s current assessment of the outlook for is a key factor in supporting long-term price stability. Continued wage moderation non-inflationary economic growth, as this would not only facilitate the task of monetary will favourably affect the expectations of policy, but also foster the creation of economic agents regarding the stability of employment as well as growth in production future economic developments. In the same and, ultimately, disposable income. vein, all initiatives to further promote flexibility in labour and product markets in At its 7 February meeting, the Governing the euro area are to be supported. The focus Council stressed the importance of the placed on these issues in the context of the Stability and Growth Pact and of its diligent Barcelona Summit of the European Council implementation through the appropriate in March 2002 should lead to determined procedures. It emphasised that the efforts towards a swift delivery of essential responsibility for the procedures to ensure structural reforms in labour and product compliance with the Pact lies with the markets, which would, in turn, enhance the European Commission and the EU ministers euro area’s growth potential. of finance. The Governing Council fully supports all steps to avoid excessive fiscal This issue of the Monthly Bulletin contains deficits and all efforts to reduce public two articles. The first discusses the role debt-to-GDP ratios and bring the fiscal stance of stock markets in the economy and into line with the stability programmes in their relevance to monetary policy. The individual member countries, thereby also second highlights recent developments in enhancing the credibility of the medium-term international financial co-operation. commitments made under the Stability and Growth Pact. 6 ECB • Monthly Bulletin • February 2002 Economic developments in the euro area 1 Monetary and financial developments Monetary policy decisions of the Chart 2 Governing Council of the ECB M3 growth and the reference value (annual percentage changes; seasonally and calendar effect At its meeting on 7 February 2002 the adjusted) Governing Council of the ECB decided to M3 leave the minimum bid rate in the main M3 (three-month centred moving average) refinancing operations, conducted as variable reference value (41/2%) rate tenders, at 3.25%. The interest rates on 9.0 9.0 the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility were also kept unchanged, at 4.25% 8.0 8.0 and 2.25% respectively (see Chart 1). 7.0 7.0 Moderation of short-run dynamics of M3 6.0 6.0 in December 5.0 5.0 The annual rate of growth of M3 in December 2001 was 8.0%, which was unchanged from 4.0 4.0 November. Reflecting the continued high annual growth rate of M3, the three-month 3.0 3.0 average of the annual growth rates of M3 1999 2000 2001 increased to 7.8% in the period from Source: ECB.
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