Housing Market Area Assessment

SESplan Housing Need and Demand Assessment 2

Supporting Document 1 Final Housing Market Area Assessment

March 2015

TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION ...... 1

BACKGROUND ...... 1

Scottish Planning Policy ...... 1 Housing Need & Demand Assessment Guidance: Scottish Government 2008 ...... 2 Local Housing System Analysis Guide, Communities Scotland, 2004 ...... 2

METHODOLOGY USED IN THIS STUDY TO DEFINE MARKET AREAS ...... 3

Introduction ...... 3 Baseline Data & Data Refinement ...... 4 Components of the Assessment ...... 4

Origin / Destination Flows ...... 4 Centre to Periphery Flows ...... 5 Other Relevant Factual & Contextual Considerations ...... 5 Assessment Geographies ...... 5

THE IDENTIFIED SESPLAN HOUSING MARKET AREAS ...... 6

CITY OF EDINBURGH ...... 8

Sales and purchaser migration within, to and from Edinburgh ...... 8

EAST LOTHIAN...... 11

Purchaser and sales migration to and from Edinburgh and East Lothian ...... 11 Purchaser and sales migration within, to and from East Lothian sub-market areas ...... 12

FIFE (SESplan)...... 13

Purchaser and sales migration to and from Edinburgh and Fife (SESplan) ...... 13 Purchaser and sales migration within, to and from Fife (SESplan) sub-market areas ...... 14

MIDLOTHIAN ...... 15

Purchaser and sales migration to and from Edinburgh and Midlothian ...... 15 Purchaser and sales migration within, to and from Midlothian sub-market areas ...... 16

SCOTTISH BORDERS ...... 17

Purchaser and sales migration to and from Edinburgh and Scottish Borders ...... 17 Purchaser and sales migration within, to and from Scottish Borders sub-markets ...... 18

WEST LOTHIAN ...... 19

Purchaser and sales migration to and from Edinburgh and West Lothian ...... 19 Purchaser and sales migration within, to and from West Lothian sub-market areas ...... 20

DEFINING EDINBURGH’S FUNCTIONAL HOUSING MARKET AREA ...... 21

Purchaser and sales migration to and from Edinburgh and other SESplan areas...... 21 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This Housing Market Area Assessment provides an analysis of where home buyers in Edinburgh come from and where Edinburgh purchasers move to in the SESplan area. It also examines where purchasers come from and move to in the surrounding local authority areas. The study findings are:

Edinburgh’s Functional Housing Market Area

 Edinburgh has a functional housing market area that extends to include all the SESplan local authority areas;  Within the SESplan area there are 15 sub-market areas, with the City of Edinburgh being one, and two each in Fife and Midlothian, three each in West Lothian and East Lothian and four in Scottish Borders;  Edinburgh’s functional housing market area has extended along radial strategic transport corridors into the surrounding sub-market areas;  Migration to and from Edinburgh is generally highest between the sub-market areas closest to the city, with the strength of this relationship reducing as distance from the city increases;  Spatially, a ‘tiered’ sequential effect from Edinburgh is created in terms of the city’s influence on the sub-market areas around it within the wider functional housing market area;  Yet despite this general characteristic, the assessment findings for Central Borders and Northern Borders sub-market areas are that these sub-market areas are similar to second tier sub-market areas in other local authority areas closer to the city;  Net purchaser migration from Edinburgh to Fife (SESplan) is numerically comparable to net purchaser migration to Midlothian, East Lothian and West Lothian, with that to Scottish Borders being lower;  Edinburgh purchaser migration to surrounding sub-market areas has a greater impact on them when the volume of sales in them is lower, with the most significant effects being in Midlothian, East Lothian and West Lothian then Scottish Borders and Fife (SESplan);  Fife (SESplan) sub-market areas are second only to Edinburgh in terms of sales volume, so proportionately the impact of Edinburgh sales migration there is least;  In terms of mobile demand from Edinburgh, the greatest impact in terms of the volume of sales from purchasers originating from Edinburgh is on FC, ELC, WLC, MLC and then SBC.

City of Edinburgh Sub-market Area

 The City of Edinburgh is a self contained housing market area, with 89% of sales in the city going to buyers who already live in the city;  There are more Edinburgh purchasers than sales in Edinburgh to buyers from Edinburgh;  There are also more Edinburgh purchasers than there are total sales in Edinburgh;  As such, around 10% of sales in the city are to buyers from surrounding sub-market areas, of which most come from East Lothian, Midlothian and West Lothian, with less from Fife (SESplan) and Scottish Borders;  Of the 10% of Edinburgh purchasers that move from the city to surrounding sub-market areas, most of them go to East Lothian, Midlothian, West Lothian and then Fife (SESplan) with fewest going to Scottish Borders;  Edinburgh attracts around half as many buyers from surrounding market areas as the purchasers it generates and directs towards them.

Other Housing Sub-Market Areas in the SESplan Area

Once sales and purchaser migration to and from Edinburgh is removed from the assessment, a series of local sub-market areas in the SESplan area emerge around Edinburgh. These generally have:

 High levels of self containment, with few moves across adjoining sub-market areas;  Stronger relationships with adjoining / nearby sub-market areas than with more distant ones;  Movement between adjoining sub-market areas tends to be towards those with greater population or along or closer to strategic transport corridors or to the city itself;  This pattern of movement is strongest in the west between sub-market areas in West Lothian and Fife (SESplan) and in the east between sub-market areas in East Lothian, Midlothian and Scottish Borders;  Very few moves occur between these eastern and western ‘clusters’ of sub-market areas;  This general pattern of movement between the two separate ‘clusters’ of sub-market areas reflects:

· the linear nature of strategic transport corridors to and from Edinburgh; · the physical barrier to direct circulatory movement across the city region created by the Pentland Hills Regional Park; · the single road based transport corridor around the city; and · the more local network of movement routes between nearby towns.

These characteristics have played a role in influencing movement and shaping the relationships that have developed between the eastern and western clusters of sub-markets around Edinburgh.

Mapping

The maps that follow illustrate the:

 Functional Edinburgh Housing Market Area boundary;  The number of sales to Edinburgh purchasers across the SESplan area expressed as a percentage of all sales in those areas;  The impact mobile demand (sales volume) from Edinburgh across the functional housing market area;  The local sub-housing market areas that have emerged from the study based on amalgamated data zone boundaries.

The detailed information and analysis which has been used to generate these maps is contained in the main body of the report.

Next Steps

This draft study forms the basis for consultation with the SESplan wider Housing Market Partnership. The housing market areas identified in this assessment provide the geographic basis for data collection and input in to the Scottish Government’s Housing Need and Demand Assessment Tool; these housing market areas will therefore also be the output geographies for SESplan HNDA2.

Whilst SESplan and the parent authorities do not need to continue past trends in the development of future SDP policy and strategy, the functioning of the housing market provides a context to understand where there is a need and demand for housing and why. As part of wider strategy and

ii policy development it is useful to have an understanding of these factors to consider how policy may be used to modify any imbalance in housing supply and demand across the SESplan area.

The findings of this study therefore ought to be considered in any future work on the spatial strategy of SDP2, alongside consideration of environmental and infrastructure opportunities and constraints across the SESplan area as a whole. As such, where possible, HMA boundaries should also follow catchment areas for the provision of infrastructure, such as school catchment areas.

iii

MAP A: FUNCTIONAL HOUSING MARKET AREA & STRATEGIC TRANSPORT CORRIDORS

MAP B: PURCHASER AND SALES DISTRIBUTION IN THE FUNCTIONAL HOUSING MARKET AREA

MAP C: IMPACT OF EDINBURGH’S MOBILE DEMAND ON FUNCTIONAL HOUSING MARKET AREA

MAP D: THE IDENTIFIED SESPLAN SUB-HOUSING MARKET AREAS

vii

SESPLAN SDP2 HOUSING MARKET AREA ASSESSMENT

INTRODUCTION

This study seeks to establish Housing Market Areas in the SESplan area. The need for a Housing Market Area Assessment and how it should relate to and inform the SESplan Housing Need and Demand Assessment (HNDA2) and the review of Local Housing Strategies and Development Plans is explained below.

The technical methodology used in this assessment is consistent with government advice on the matter. The study will also be integrated with wider participation and consultation exercises associated with the preparation of HNDA2 and SESplan’s second Strategic Development Plan. This is to ensure consistency with government guidance, and to ensure that HNDA2 achieves ‘robust and credible’ status from the Scottish Government’s Centre for Housing Market Analysis.

This technical work will provide input and output geographies for SESplan’s second HNDA and will offer an evidence base from which policy and strategy may emerge.

BACKGROUND

Scottish Planning Policy

Scottish Planning Policy (SPP) states that Housing Need and Demand Assessments (HNDAs) provide the evidence base for setting housing supply targets in Local Housing Strategies (LHSs), and for allocating housing land in Development Plans (DPs). The HNDA is to be carried out at functional housing market area level and is to consider the operation of the housing system as a whole, across all tenures.

The scale, nature and distribution of housing supply targets in an LHS and the housing requirements set out in DPs should be based on the outputs of the HNDA. HNDAs are to assess the need and demand for housing in terms of pre-defined Housing Market Areas (HMAs) and are to report their findings in respect of those areas. The approach to defining HMAs, which are to be used as a basis for setting and distributing housing requirements in DPs, is to be done by following an approach set out in the HNDA Guidance.

When setting housing requirements in DPs wider strategic economic, environmental and social policy objectives should be taken in to account. DP housing requirements may be higher or lower, and distributed and phased differently, to the ‘need and demand’ figures reported in the HNDA. Planning authorities can direct development to different locations to those it has done in the past. It does not necessarily follow therefore that the outputs of this study or the trend based HNDA will be adopted as policy, or as the only justification for setting and distributing housing requirements as part of any spatial strategy.

However, planning authorities are to ensure that sufficient land is available to meet the housing requirement that has been set for each HMA in full, unless there are serious environmental or infrastructure constraints which can not be overcome. In these circumstances the authority should consider if a proportion of the housing requirement should be met in another HMA in the same local authority or Strategic Development Plan area. 1

Housing Need and Demand Assessment Guidance: Scottish Government 2008

The Guidance describes a process where preparation of the HNDA, LHS and DPs are complementary work streams which are to produce strategies that are also complementary.

However, the housing market is dynamic and complex and HNDAs are not to be seen as presenting definitive findings on matters related to housing need, demand and market conditions. HNDAs are to provide a basis against which to consider these matters in policy and strategy formulation. The Guidance encourages authorities to assess housing need and demand by firstly defining HMAs using one of the approaches set out in Communities Scotland’s Local Housing Systems Analysis Guide. Importantly, the approach to identifying HMA(s) should:

 involve key stakeholders through Housing Market Partnerships;  be consistent with an accepted approach to identifying HMAs;  define suitable geographies to assess housing market conditions, in view of HMA analysis and the ability to gather data for HNDA preparation– e.g. data zone level;  contain a full technical explanation of the methods employed, with any limitations noted;  ensure assumptions, judgements and findings are fully justified and clearly presented; and  include arrangements for monitoring and review.

HMAs should be identified by working in partnership. The clear intention of the Guidance is that this should be achieved by formation of a Housing Market Partnership (HMP). The core of a HMP should comprise planning and housing staff from relevant local authorities, but this group can look more widely to draw on knowledge and experience from relevant stakeholders, such as house builders and RSL’s etc, as appropriate. Opportunities for participation, consultation and representation are embedded in the work plans associated with defining HMAs, HNDA2, SDP2 and LHSs as relevant and related to the roles of the participants and the stage at which they are to be engaged.

The HNDA2 project plan clarifies the roles of the South East Scotland Housing Forum (SESHoF), the SESplan Operational Group and Housing Executive / Project Board in the governance structures associated with HNDA2, DP and LHS preparation. This includes when and with whom participation and consultation will be sought as part of the HMA work stream as the study progresses to finalisation.

Local Housing System Analysis Guide, Communities Scotland, 2004

SPP requires the approach to defining HMAs to follow one of the approaches set out in the HNDA Guidance, which refers to the Local Housing Systems Analysis Guide.

A local housing system is generally the smallest unit for which it is appropriate to attempt to estimate, project or forecast demographic trends, including migration flows. This is because, at spatial levels below this, population movements will tend simply to reflect the availability of housing. The area defined as the functional HMA should therefore be considered the geography of the local housing market system, unless there are clear and specific reasons for thinking otherwise.

A HMA is a largely self-contained or independent area, where different elements and players (consumers, developers, etc.) are linked together by a variety of flows (property sale and purchase etc.). It is the combination of these flows and wider forces that influence the nature of the local housing system over time and spatially – i.e. the nature and extent of a HMA. It is necessary to have an understanding of these factors to consider how policy may be used to modify any imbalance in housing supply and demand in the area.

A functional HMA has a number of component ‘sub-markets’. Partnerships should seek to identify trends and drivers across these smaller HMAs. Whilst the primary aim is to understand the broad functional HMA, partnerships will also wish to understand how economic, demographic and stock characteristics relate to each other geographically to form ‘sub-markets’ in the functional HMA.

When defining any HMA, the evidence used and assumptions made during the assessment should be reported alongside its findings. HMAs should be identified by using one or more of the following:

 Centre to periphery household flows;  Origin-based and destination-based self-containment analysis; and  Local knowledge.

The Scottish Government does not recommend one methodology over another, recognising that different approaches are required in different areas and circumstances.

METHODOLOGY USED IN THIS STUDY TO DEFINE MARKET AREAS

Introduction

The approach to defining SESplan HMAs for this study needed to be different depending on the type of HMA and the spatial scale under consideration.

The largest HMA is Edinburgh’s functional HMA. This was defined by using an analysis of ‘centre to periphery household flows’. Within the functional housing market area a range of ‘sub-market areas’ were also identified using an origin and destination based ‘containment analysis’.

In practice, in order to define Edinburgh’s Functional HMA, the ‘containment analysis’ needed to be completed first. This is because the findings from this part of the assessment were needed to reveal the information at ‘sub-market area’ level that is necessary to conclude the analysis of ‘centre to periphery flows’ – i.e. to define Edinburgh’s Functional HMA.

Once this information was gathered, the movements to and from Edinburgh were then removed from the ‘containment analysis’ of sub-market areas outside the city. This was carried out to reveal the level of self containment that exists in those sub-markets and to better highlight the flows within and well as to and from them to surrounding sub-market areas.

These initial findings will be consulted on among the Housing Market Partnership and then more widely with other relevant stakeholders. Further local knowledge will be sought throughout the consultation stages built in to this study. Where relevant other relevant factual and anecdotal contextual information will be used to supplement the initial quantitative outputs of the assessment with other relevant qualitative information.

As such, consultation with stakeholders will be undertaken and it is anticipated representatives from the wider Housing Market Partnership will contribute.

Baseline Data & Data Refinement

The baseline data used and how it was refined during the assessment is set out below:

 The assessment is based on sales and purchaser data between 2006 – 2011 (5 years);  Non SESplan sales and purchases were excluded from the assessment;  Group sales and purchases to private companies were excluded from the assessment;  Sales and purchases between family members were excluded from the assessment;  To model containment at local level – i.e. to define sub-market areas - Edinburgh sales and purchasers were removed from the assessment, as explained above.

Components of the Assessment

Origin / Destination Flows To define the ‘sub-market areas’ within the wider functional HMA, an ‘origin and destination’ based analysis was completed. The identified ‘sub-market areas’ that have minimal levels of migration, either originating outwith the defined area to it, or have a destination outwith the defined area. The two types of analysis can be described as follows:

 Origin Based Flows - Based on analysis of house sales in an area, this approach defines the geography that contains the locations from which approximately 70% of the sales in that area came from; and

 Destination Based Flows - Based on analysis of house purchasers in an area, this approach seeks to define the geography that contains the locations to which approximately 70% of the purchasers in that area went to.

The purpose of this type of analysis is to define areas where most movement occurs within rather than across an area. There is no pre-determined cut off point for defining ‘self-containment’ set out in government guidance, but this is normally set at around 70%. However, during this study the percentage figure was reviewed where appropriate to take in to account the wide variations in sales volumes across the SESplan area – a proportional measure does not always reveal the true dynamics of the market, as described more fully in the analysis below.

The ‘origin and destination’ based analysis needed to begin by selecting an appropriate range of settlements / groups of settlements in the SESplan area to test for levels of self-containment. The original grouping used for this is set out in Table 1. As the study progressed the boundaries of these areas needed to be refined by amalgamating some of the original test areas to ensure a clear level of self containment within the final areas was achieved, as described below.

TABLE 1: INITIAL SETTLEMENT GROUPINGS TO COMMENCE CONTAINMENT ANALYSIS Local Authority Map Ref Settlements Tested for Inclusion

Edinburgh CEC CEC administrative area, but likely to also include parts of other sub market areas.

East Lothian ELC01 Musselburgh, Wallyford, Tranent, Prestonpans, Cockenzie and Port Seton. ELC02 Coastal settlements including Longniddry, Aberlady, Gullane, Dirleton and North Berwick. ELC03 Haddington and its hinterland to Drem and Gifford. ELC04 Dunbar including its hinterland including Innerwick and West Barns.

Midlothian MLC01 Dalkeith, Eskbank, Newtongrange, Easthouses, Mayfield, Gorebridge, Bonnyrigg, Lasswade. MLC02 Penicuik, Roslin, Bilston and Loanhead. MLC03 Danderhall, Millerhill and Newton.

West Lothian WLC01 Livingston including ‘The Calders,’ Winchburgh, Broxburn and Uphall. WLC02 Bathgate, Boghall, Whitburn, Armadale, Fauldhouse. WLC03 Linlithgow and surrounding area.

Scottish Borders SBC01 Central Borders settlements including Newtown St Boswells, Galashiels, St Boswells, Hawick, Melrose, Jedburgh, Earlston, Selkirk and Kelso. SBC02 Berwickshire settlements including Eyemouth, Duns, Coldstream, Chirnside and Greenlaw. SBC03 Northern Borders settlements including Innerleithen, Lauder, Peebles and West Linton. SBC04 Southern Borders settlements including Newcastleton.

Fife (SESplan) FC01 Dunfermline, Cairneyhill, Carnock, North Queensferry, Inverkeithing, Rosyth, Limekilns, Charlestown, Halbeath and Dalgety Bay, Cowdenbeath, Lochgelly, Crossgates and south west Fife eg Blairhall. FC02 Kirkcaldy, Cardenden, Thornton, Glenrothes and Levenmouth..

Centre to Periphery Flows The aim of this part of the assessment was to define Edinburgh’s Functional HMA. It examined the flow of movement from Edinburgh to its surrounding areas. If approximately 10% of sales in any individual area around the city and within the SESplan area were to households moving from the city, then that area was taken to be included within Edinburgh’s Functional HMA.

In some cases it was also necessary to consider the volume of sales in the surrounding areas to Edinburgh purchasers since sales volumes vary widely across SESplan. A proportional measure did not always provide a true picture of the characteristics of the sub-markets. Areas further away from the city were progressively tested until the proportion and volume of sales in them to purchasers from Edinburgh dropped significantly. The area so defined was taken to be the functional HMA.

Other Relevant Factual & Contextual Considerations Through participation and consultation exercises local knowledge has also been applied to the assessment, together with other relevant factual and anecdotal contextual information. This is used to supplement the primary quantitative outputs of the study with other quantitative and qualitative information. The type of other information considered includes:

 Available information on dwelling type, size and price etc;  The influence of transport corridors and public transport opportunities;  Travel to work information;  Distribution of strategic housing land allocations and dwelling completions in the areas;  Any relevant demographic and migration considerations.

Assessment Geographies HMA boundaries were set using amalgamated data zones to achieve the best fit between the HMAs and data output areas. The amalgamated data zones provide a suitable basis for data collection and entry in to the HNDA Tool. However, when defining HMAs it is necessary to consider identifiable boundaries (roads / railways etc) and infrastructure provision (e.g. school catchment areas etc).

THE IDENTIFIED SESPLAN HOUSING MARKET AREAS

The SESplan HMAs identified through the origin and destination containment analysis are illustrated in Map 1. The analysis used to define these sub-market areas is set out in the following sections.

MAP 1: THE IDENTIFIED SESPLAN HOUSING MARKET AREAS

The level of self containment in terms of sales and purchases in these sub-market areas is identified in Table 2 and Table 3. Self containment is expressed as a percentage of total sales and purchasers that remain in the sub-market area they originate from. Table 2 illustrates the level of self containment achieved in each of the sub-market areas with sales to Edinburgh and purchasers from Edinburgh included. Levels of self containment varied due to the impact of moves to and from the city, so these findings concealed the characteristics of the sub-markets around the city.

TABLE 2: SELF CONTAINMENT ANALYSIS INCLUDING MOVEMENTS TO AND FROM EDINBURGH SELF CONTAINMENT MAP REF NAME OF SUB-MARKET AREA % OF ALL SALES % OF ALL PURCHASES CEC City of Edinburgh 89.7 81.0 ELC01 Musselburgh / Haddington /Tranent etc. 55.2 68.6 ELC02 East Lothian Coastal settlements 51.6 48.0 ELC03 Dunbar and Hinterland 54.7 58.1 FC01 Dunfermline and West Fife 77.5 85.1 FC02 Kirkcaldy, Glenrothes & Central Fife 88.5 92.3 MC01 Dalkeith / Gorebridge / Bonnyrigg 53.4 65.6 MC02 Penicuik / Loanhead 57.8 51.5 SBC01 Central Borders 80.2 87.1 SBC02 Berwickshire 66.4 67.5 SBC03 Northern Borders (Peebles etc.) 56.4 59.7 SBC04 Southern Borders settlements 53.8 46.7 WLC01 Livingston / Broxburn 71.3 68.2 WLC02 Bathhgate and Armadale 59.3 82.1 WLC03 Linlithgow 68.4 59.2

Table 3 illustrates the level of self containment achieved in the surrounding sub-market areas with sales to and from Edinburgh excluded. Once these sales are excluded from the analysis the degree of self containment achieved in the sub-market areas around Edinburgh is significantly higher. To achieve this degree of self containment the original settlement groups (see Table1) used to test for market areas was amended to ensure self containment was achieved. These changes amalgamated ELC01 with ELC03 to form the composite ELC01 area presented in the tables and maps. MLC01 and MLC03 were also merged to create the composite MLC01 shown in the tables and maps.

TABLE 3: SELF CONTAINMENT ANALYSIS EXCLUDING MOVEMENTS TO AND FROM EDINBURGH SELF CONTAINMENT MAP REF NAME OF SUB-MARKET AREA % OF ALL SALES % OF ALL PURCHASES CEC City of Edinburgh 89.7 89.7 ELC01 Musselburgh / Haddington /Tranent etc. 80.3 81.4 ELC02 East Lothian Coastal settlements 73.0 63.2 ELC03 Dunbar and Hinterland 69.9 70.1 FC01 Dunfermline and West Fife 89.1 89.3 FC02 Kirkcaldy, Glenrothes & Central Fife 92.0 94.2 MC01 Dalkeith / Gorebridge / Bonnyrigg 79.2 78.3 MC02 Penicuik / Loanhead 83.0 65.0 SBC01 Central Borders 86.5 92.2 SBC02 Berwickshire 73.8 76.8 SBC03 Northern Borders (Peebles etc.) 73.2 71.2 SBC04 Southern Borders settlements 60.2 49.0 WLC01 Livingston / Broxburn 88.5 74.8 WLC02 Bathhgate and Armadale 66.0 85.6 WLC03 Linlithgow 82.2 68.8

A detailed commentary on each of these market areas as well as the functional market area follows.

CITY OF EDINBURGH

SALES AND PURCHASER MIGRATION WITHIN, TO AND FROM EDINBURGH

MAP: EDINBURGH

Origin Analysis

TABLE 4: ORIGIN OF SALES IN EDINBURGH FROM THE SESPLAN LOCAL AUTHORITY AREAS AND SUB-MARKET AREAS Total Sales in CEC Origin of Sales in CEC Origin of Sales in CEC % of Sales in CEC by Area by LA Area by LA Sub HMA LA Area / Sub HMA

CEC 39622 35544 89.7%

ELC 1125 2.8% ELC01 681 60.5% ELC02 295 26.2% ELC03 149 13.2%

FC 635 1.6% FC01 438 69.0% FC02 197 31.0%

MLC 860 2.2% MC01 534 62.1% MC02 326 37.9%

SBC 602 1.5% SBC01 219 36.4% SBC02 120 19.9% SBC03 258 42.9% SBC04 5 0.8%

WLC 856 2.2% WLC01 570 66.6% WLC02 136 15.9% WLC03 150 17.5%

SUB TOTAL 4078 10.3%

TOTAL SALES 39622 100%

 There were 39,622 sales in the city and 35,544 of these were to buyers who originated in the city;

 In terms of the analysis of the origin of sales, Edinburgh has a measure of 89.7% self containment – i.e. 89.7% of sales in Edinburgh were to buyers from Edinburgh;  Of the other 4,078 sales that occurred in Edinburgh (10.3%), proportionality these went to buyers from East Lothian (3.1%), Midlothian (2.2%) and West Lothian (2.2%), with sales in Edinburgh to buyers from Fife (1.6%) and Scottish Borders (1.5%) featuring to a lesser extent;  Nevertheless, this flow of sales to Edinburgh from the surrounding area demonstrates that the city has a functional relationship with the rest of the sub-markets in the SESplan area;  Most sales within Edinburgh registered to buyers from outside the city originated from those sub- market areas closest to Edinburgh – i.e. ELC01, WLC01, MLC01 and FC01;  The number of sales in Edinburgh to buyers who originate from sub-market areas outside the city generally reduces as distance increases between the city and surrounding sub-markets – the degree of influence Edinburgh has on the surrounding sub-market areas is ‘tiered’;  However, there are more sales in Edinburgh from SBC03 and SBC01 than there are from many second tier sub-market areas in other local authority areas, while SBC02 is comparable to many third tier HMAs in other local authority areas;  Very few sales in Edinburgh were to buyers from SBC04.

Destination Analysis

TABLE 5: DESTINATION OF EDINBURGH PURCHASERS AMONG SESPLAN LOCAL AUTHORITIES AND SUB-MARKET AREAS Total CEC Purchasers Purchases made by Purchases made by % of All CEC CEC Purchasers by LA CEC Purchasers in Purchases by LA Area Area other LA Sub HMA / Sub HMA

CEC 43871 35544 81%

ELC 2217 5.1% ELC01 1683 75.9% ELC02 332 15.0% ELC03 202 9.1%

FC 1731 3.9% FC01 1338 77.3% FC02 393 22.7%

MLC 1751 4.0% MC01 1327 75.8% MC02 424 24.2%

SBC 811 1.8% SBC01 313 38.6% SBC02 101 12.5% SBC03 387 47.7% SBC04 10 1.2%

WLC 1817 4.1% WLC01 1191 65.5% WLC02 470 25.9% WLC03 156 8.6%

SUB TOTAL 8327 19.0%

TOTAL SALES 39622 100%

 There were 43,871 purchasers originating from Edinburgh, and 35,544 of them bought homes in the city;  In terms of the destination analysis, the city has a measure of 81% self containment – i.e. 81% of purchasers originating from the city bought homes in the city;  Of the 8,327 Edinburgh purchasers (19.0%) that move from the city, proportionately most moved to East Lothian (5.1%), and to West Lothian (4.1%), Midlothian (3.9%) and Fife (3.9%), with fewer Edinburgh purchasers moving to Scottish Borders (1.9%);  This flow of purchasers originating from Edinburgh and buying in the surrounding area demonstrates that the city has a functional relationship with the rest of the sub-markets in the SESplan area;  Most purchasers moving from the city moved to those sub-market areas closest to the city – i.e. ELC01, FC01, MLC01 and WLC01;  The number of Edinburgh purchasers that move to sub-market areas outside the city generally reduces as distance increases between Edinburgh and the surrounding sub-market areas - the influence of Edinburgh on the surrounding sub-market areas is ‘tiered’;  However, a comparable number of Edinburgh purchasers move to SBC03 and SBC01 as to many second tier sub-market areas in other local authority areas, while SBC02 is not dissimilar to many third tier HMAs in other local authority areas;  Very few Edinburgh purchasers move to SBC04.

EAST LOTHIAN

PURCHASER AND SALES MIGRATION TO AND FROM EDINBURGH AND EAST LOTHIAN

MAP: EAST LOTHIAN

Origin Analysis

TABLE 6: SALES IN ELC AND ITS SUB-MARKET AREAS ORIGINATING FROM CITY OF EDINBURGH Total ELC Sales ELC Sales From CEC % of ELC sales from CEC ELC01 5385 1683 31% ELC02 1133 332 29% ELC03 929 202 22% TOTAL 7447 2217 30%

 In total there were 7,447 sales in the ELC sub-market areas, with significantly more occurring in ELC01 than in ELC02 and ELC03;  2,217 Edinburgh purchasers (5.1%) move to the ELC area, which is the most moves from the city to any local authority area, with significantly more moving to ELC01 than ELC02 and ELC03;  Reflecting the reducing volume of Edinburgh purchases moving to sub-market areas that are further from the city, the influence of Edinburgh purchasers in ELC02 and ELC03 is less but is comparable to sales to Edinburgh purchasers in SBC03 and SBC01 which are more distant;  Overall, the relatively small proportion of Edinburgh purchasers moving to ELC has a significant effect on sales in the area, with 30% of all sales being to Edinburgh purchasers;

Destination Analysis

TABLE 7: PURCHASERS FROM ELC AND ITS SUB-MARKET AREAS MOVING TO THE CITY OF EDINBURGH Total ELC Purchasers ELC Purchasers Moving to % of ELC Purchasers Moving CEC to CEC ELC01 4334 681 16% ELC02 1220 295 24% ELC03 874 149 17% TOTAL 6428 1125 18%

 In total there were 6,428 purchasers in the ELC sub-market areas, with significantly more in ELC01 than in ELC02 and ELC03;  1,125 ELC purchasers (19%) move to Edinburgh, which is the most moves from any local authority area to the city, with significantly more moving from ELC01 than ELC02 and ELC03;  The highest proportion of moves to Edinburgh from any sub-market area is from ELC02;

PURCHASER AND SALES MIGRATION WITHIN, TO AND FROM EAST LOTHIAN SUB-MARKET AREAS

Origin Analysis

TABLE 8: SALES IN ELC SUB-HMAS ORIGINATING FROM OTHER SESPLAN SUB- HMAS ELC1 % of Sales ELC2 % of Sales ELC3 % of Sales Sales in HMA without CECs 3702 801 727 ELC1 2972 80.3% 116 14.5% 91 12.5% ELC2 185 5.0% 585 73.0% 51 7.0% ELC3 97 2.6% 28 3.5% 508 69.9% FC1 24 0.6% 8 1.0% 4 0.6% FC2 16 0.4% 4 0.5% 1 0.1% MLC1 226 6.1% 15 1.9% 14 1.9% MLC2 59 1.6% 10 1.2% 6 0.8% SBC1 17 0.5% 7 0.9% 6 0.8% SBC2 20 0.5% 8 1.0% 27 3.7% SBC3 32 0.9% 7 0.9% 5 0.7% SBC4 0 0% 1 0.1% 0 0% WLC1 38 1.0% 5 0.6% 8 1.1% WLC2 8 0.2% 3 0.4% 3 0.4% WLC3 8 0.2% 4 0.5% 3 0.4% TOTAL 3702 801 727

Destination Analysis

TABLE 9: PURCHASERS FROM ELC SUB-HMAS MOVING TO 0THER SESPLAN SUB- HMAS ELC1 % of Purchases ELC2 % of ELC3 % of Purchases Purchases Purchasers in HMA without 3653 925 725 those to CEC ELC1 2972 81.4% 185 20.0% 97 13.4% ELC2 116 3.2% 585 63.2% 28 3.9% ELC3 91 2.5% 51 5.5% 508 70.1% FC1 59 1.6% 6 0.6% 5 0.7% FC2 35 1.0% 4 0.4% 4 0.6% MLC1 159 4.4% 24 2.6% 14 1.9% MLC2 21 0.6% 2 0.2% 1 0.1% SBC1 47 1.3% 26 2.8% 12 1.7% SBC2 41 1.1% 19 2.0% 37 5.1% SBC3 41 1.1% 9 1.0% 8 1.1% SBC4 1 0.0% 1 0.1% 0 0% WLC1 32 0.9% 8 0.9% 6 0.8% WLC2 34 0.9% 4 0.4% 4 0.6% WLC3 4 0.1% 1 0.1% 1 0.1% TOTAL 3653 925 725

 Reflecting East Lothian’s high level of self containment, only very modest flows to the area occur from MCL01 and SBC02, while very modest flows from the area occur to MLC01 and SBC01 and SBC02.

East Lothian is separate from Edinburgh’s housing market area, with three separate sub-market areas in it.

FIFE (SESplan)

PURCHASER AND SALES MIGRATION TO AND FROM EDINBURGH AND FIFE (SESPLAN)

MAP: FIFE (SESplan)

Origin Analysis

TABLE 10: SALES IN SOUTHERN FIFE AND ITS SUB-MARKET AREAS ORIGINATING FROM CITY OF EDINBURGH Total FC Sales FC Sales From CEC % of FC Sales From CEC FC01 10276 1338 13% FC02 10399 393 4% TOTAL 20675 1731 8%

 In total there were 20,675 sales in the Fife (SESplan) sub-market areas, second only to the sales volume experienced in the Edinburgh sub-market area;  A similar number of sales occur in FC01 and FC02;  1,731 Edinburgh purchasers (3.9%) move to the Fife (SESplan) area, with many more moving to FC01 than to FC02;  Reflecting the larger volume of sales in these sub-markets compared to others in the SESplan area, the percentage of Edinburgh purchasers moving to them as a percentage of all sales is relatively low, particularly in FC02;  However, the number of Edinburgh purchasers moving to these sub-market areas is comparable to those moving to ELC, MLC and WLC, with FC02 sales volumes to Edinburgh purchasers being comparable to those experienced in SBC03 and SBC01;  Overall, the number of Edinburgh purchasers is a relatively small proportion of all moves to these sub-market areas and does not have a significant effect on them;  However, in terms of the actual number of sales to Edinburgh buyers, both sub-market areas relate well to the characteristics of the other sub-market areas outside the city.

Destination Analysis

TABLE11: PURCHASERS FROM SOUTHERN FIFE AND ITS SUB-MARKET AREAS MOVING TO THE CITY OF EDINBURGH Total FC Purchasers FC Purchasers Moving to % of FC Purchasers Moving CEC to CEC FC01 9355 438 5% FC02 9967 197 2% TOTAL 19322 635 3%

 Proportionality, very few purchasers from Fife submarket areas move to Edinburgh, but the actual number of purchasers moving to Edinburgh from Fife (SESplan) is comparable to the other first and second tier sub-market areas in the SESplan area.

PURCHASER AND SALES MIGRATION WITHIN, TO AND FROM FIFE SUB-MARKET AREAS

Origin Analysis

TABLE 12: SALES IN FC SUB-HMAS ORIGINATING FROM OTHER SESPLAN SUB- HMAS. FC1 % of Sales FC2 % of Sales Sales in HMA without CECs 8938 10006 ELC1 59 0.7% 35 0.3% ELC2 6 0.1% 4 0.0% ELC3 5 0.1% 4 0.0% FC1 7960 89.1% 599 6.0% FC2 504 5.6% 9202 92.0% MLC1 61 0.7% 27 0.3% MLC2 25 0.3% 13 0.1% SBC1 14 0.2% 3 0.0% SBC2 7 0.1% 9 0.1% SBC3 11 0.1% 8 0.1% SBC4 0 0.0% 1 0.0% WLC1 114 1.3% 67 0.7% WLC2 27 0.3% 20 0.2% WLC3 145 1.6% 14 0.1% TOTAL 8938 10006

Destination Analysis

TABLE 13: PURCHASERS FROM FC SUB-HMAS MOVING TO 0THER SESPLAN SUB- HMAS FC1 % of Purchases FC2 % of Purchases Purchasers in HMA without those to CEC 8917 9770 ELC1 24 0.3% 16 0.2% ELC2 8 0.1% 4 0.0% ELC3 4 0.0% 1 0.0% FC1 7960 89.3% 504 5.2% FC2 599 6.7% 9202 94.2% MLC1 22 0.2% 8 0.1% MLC2 13 0.1% 3 0.0% SBC1 24 0.3% 5 0.1% SBC2 5 0.1% 1 0.0% SBC3 9 0.1% 5 0.1% SBC4 0 0.0% 0 0.0% WLC1 60 0.7% 5 0.1% WLC2 180 2.0% 14 0.1% WLC3 9 0.1% 2 0.0% TOTAL 8917 9770

 Reflecting the high level of self containment in Fife (SESplan), very modest flows to FC01 occur from WLC01 and WLC03, while flows from FC01 to WLC02 are also very modest.

Fife (SESplan) is separate from Edinburgh’s housing market area, with two separate sub-market areas in it.

MIDLOTHIAN

PURCHASER AND SALES MIGRATION TO AND FROM EDINBURGH AND MIDLOTHIAN

MAP: MIDLOTHIAN

Origin Analysis

TABLE 14: SALES IN MIDLOTHIAN AND ITS SUB-MARKET AREAS ORIGINATING FROM CITY OF EDINBURGH Total MLC Sales MLC Sales From CEC % of MLC sales from CEC MLC01 4066 1327 33% MLC02 1395 424 30% TOTAL 5461 1751 32%

 In total there were 5,461 sales in the MLC sub-market areas, the lowest number of combined sales from sub-market areas in any local authority area;  Significantly more sales occurred in MLC01 than in MLC02;  1,751 Edinburgh purchasers (3.9%) move to Midlothian, with significantly more moving to MLC01 than MLC02;  Reflecting that both of these sub-market areas are close to the city the influence of Edinburgh purchasers is high in MLC01 and MLC02 on a proportional basis;  Sales volumes in MLC02 to Edinburgh purchasers is comparable to those experienced in SBC03 and SBC01;  Overall, the relatively small proportion of Edinburgh purchasers moving to Midlothian has a significant effect on sales in the area, with 32% of all sales being to Edinburgh purchasers.

Destination Analysis

TABLE 15: PURCHASERS FROM MIDLOTHIAN AND ITS SUB-MARKET AREAS MOVING TO THE CITY OF EDINBURGH Total MLC Purchasers MLC Purchasers Moving to % of MLC Purchases Moving CEC to CEC MLC01 3307 534 16% MLC02 1566 326 21% TOTAL 4873 860 18%

 In total there were 4,873 purchasers in the MLC market areas, with most in MLC01 than in MLC02;  860 MLC purchasers (17.8%) move to Edinburgh, with more moving from MLC01 than MLC02;  However, if proportionality is considered 21% of purchasers from MLC02 move to the city whereas 16% of purchasers from MLC01 move to the city;

PURCHASER AND SALES MIGRATION WITHIN, TO AND FROM MIDLOTHIAN SUB-MARKET AREAS

Origin Analysis

TABLE 16: SALES IN MLC SUB-HMAS ORIGINATING FROM OTHER SESPLAN SUB- HMAS MLC1 % of Sales MLC2 % of Sales Sales in HMA without CECs 2739 971 ELC1 159 5.8% 21 2.2% ELC2 24 0.9% 2 0.2% ELC3 14 0.5% 1 0.1% FC1 22 0.8% 13 1.3% FC2 8 0.3% 3 0.3% MLC1 2170 79.2% 68 7.0% MLC2 187 6.8% 806 83.0% SBC1 28 1.0% 6 0.6% SBC2 7 0.3% 2 0.2% SBC3 60 2.2% 32 3.3% SBC4 0 0% 0 0.0% WLC1 40 1.5% 12 1.2% WLC2 17 0.6% 3 0.3% WLC3 3 0.1% 2 0.2% TOTAL 2739 971

Destination Analysis

TABLE 17: PURCHASERS FROM MLC SUB-HMAS MOVING TO 0THER SESPLAN SUB- HMAS MLC1 % of Purchases MLC2 % of Purchases Purchasers in HMA without those to CEC 2773 1240 ELC1 226 8.2% 59 4.8% ELC2 15 0.5% 10 0.8% ELC3 14 0.5% 6 0.5% FC1 61 2.2% 25 2.0% FC2 27 1.0% 13 1.0% MLC1 2170 78.3% 187 15.1% MLC2 68 2.5% 806 65.0% SBC1 44 1.6% 21 1.7% SBC2 14 0.5% 8 0.6% SBC3 61 2.2% 60 4.8% SBC4 0 0.0% 0 0.0% WLC1 44 1.6% 25 2.0% WLC2 25 0.9% 13 1.0% WLC3 4 0.1% 7 0.6% TOTAL 2773 1240

 Reflecting Midlothian’s high level of self containment, only very modest flows to the area occur from ECL01 and SBC03, while modest flows from the area occur to ELC01.

Midlothian is separate from Edinburgh’s housing market area, with two separate sub-market areas in it.

SCOTTISH BORDERS

PURCHASER AND SALES MIGRATION TO AND FROM EDINBURGH AND SCOTTISH BORDERS

MAP: SCOTTISH BORDERS

Origin Analysis

TABLE 18: SALES IN SCOTTISH BORDERS AND ITS SUB-MARKET AREAS ORIGINATING FROM CITY OF EDINBURGH Total SBC Sales SBC Sales From CEC % of SBC Sales From CEC SBC01 4310 313 7% SBC02 1012 101 10% SBC03 1686 387 23% SBC04 93 10 11% TOTAL 7101 811 11%

 There were 7,101 sales in the Scottish Borders sub-market areas, with most occurring in SBC01;  Sales volumes in SBC03 are higher than SBC02, and SBC04 has considerably less than any other;  811 Edinburgh purchasers (1.9%) move to the SBC market areas, the lowest of any local authority area, with many more moving to SBC03 and SBC01, followed by SBC02, and few moving to SBC04;  The number of Edinburgh purchasers moving to SBC03 and SBC01 is comparable to the numbers moving to second tier sub-market areas in ELC, MLC, FC and WLC, with SBC02 sales volumes to Edinburgh purchasers being comparable to third tier sub-markets in those areas too;  Reflecting the lower volume of sales to Edinburgh purchasers in these sub-markets the percentage moving to them as a percentage of all sales is relatively low;  The relatively small proportion of Edinburgh purchasers moving to these sub-market areas still has an effect on sales in them with 11% of all sales being to Edinburgh purchasers;

Destination Analysis

TABLE 19: PURCHASERS FROM SCOTTISH BORDERS AND ITS SUB-MARKET AREAS MOVING TO THE CITY OF EDINBURGH Total SBC Purchasers SBC Purchasers Moving to % of SBC Purchasers CEC Moving to CEC SBC1 3,966 219 6% SBC2 995 120 12% SBC3 1,594 258 16% SBC4 107 5 5% TOTAL 6,662 602 9%

 There were 6,662 purchasers in the Scottish Borders market areas, with most in SBC01;  602 Scottish Borders purchasers (9%) moved to Edinburgh, with most from SBC03 then SBC01;  12% of SBC02 purchasers move to the city.

PURCHASER AND SALES MIGRATION WITHIN, TO AND FROM SCOTTISH BORDERS SUB- MARKETS

Origin Analysis

TABLE 20: SALES IN SBC SUB-HMAS ORIGINATING FROM OTHER SESPLAN SUB- HMAS SBC1 % of Sales SBC2 % of Sales SBC3 % of Sales SBC4 % of Sales HMA Sales without CEC 3997 911 1229 83 ELC1 47 1.2% 41 4.5% 41 3.3% 1 1.2% ELC2 26 0.7% 19 2.1% 9 0.7% 1 1.2% ELC3 12 0.3% 37 4.1% 8 0.7% 0 0% FC1 24 0.6% 5 0.5% 9 0.7% 0 0% FC2 5 0.1% 1 0.1% 5 0.4% 0 0% MLC1 44 1.1% 14 1.5% 61 5.0% 0 0% MLC2 21 0.5% 8 0.9% 60 4.9% 0 0% SBC1 3456 86.5% 71 7.8% 98 8.0% 25 30.1% SBC2 110 2.8% 672 73.8% 8 0.7% 1 1.2% SBC3 186 4.7% 21 2.3% 951 77.4% 5 6.0% SBC4 38 1.0% 2 0.2% 10 0.8% 50 60.2% WLC1 23 0.6% 15 1.6% 29 2.4% 0 0% WLC2 4 0.1% 2 0.2% 4 0.3% 0 0% WLC3 1 0.0% 3 0.3% 6 0.5% 0 0% TOTAL 3997 911 1229 83

Destination Analysis

TABLE 21: PURCHASERS FROM SBC SUB-HMAS MOVING TO 0THER SESPLAN SUB- HMAS SBC1 % of SBC2 % of SBC3 % of SBC4 % of Purchases Purchases Purchases Purchases Purchasers in HMA without 3747 875 1336 102 those to CEC ELC1 17 0.5% 20 2.3% 32 2.4% 0 0.0% ELC2 7 0.2% 8 0.9% 7 0.5% 1 1.0% ELC3 6 0.2% 27 3.1% 5 0.4% 0 0.0% FC1 14 0.4% 7 0.8% 11 0.8% 0 0.0% FC2 3 0.1% 9 1.0% 8 0.6% 1 1.0% MLC1 28 0.7% 7 0.8% 60 4.5% 0 0.0% MLC2 6 0.2% 2 0.2% 32 2.4% 0 0.0% SBC1 3456 92.2% 110 12.6% 186 13.9% 38 37.3% SBC2 71 1.9% 672 76.8% 21 1.6% 2 2.0% SBC3 98 2.6% 8 0.9% 951 71.2% 10 9.8% SBC4 25 0.7% 1 0.1% 5 0.4% 50 49.0% WLC1 11 0.3% 1 0.1% 13 1.0% 0 0.0% WLC2 2 0.1% 1 0.1% 4 0.3% 0 0.0% WLC3 3 0.1% 2 0.2% 1 0.1% 0 0.0% TOTAL 3747 875 1336 102

 Reflecting Scottish Border’s high level of self containment, only very modest flows to SBC02 and SBC03 occur from ECL01, ELC03, MLC01 and MLC02, while modest flows from SBC02 and SBC03 occur to ELC01, ELC03 and MLC01 and MLC02;  SBC04 has a strong relationship with SBC01. Scottish Borders is separate from Edinburgh’s housing market area, with four separate sub-market areas in it.

WEST LOTHIAN

PURCHASER AND SALES MIGRATION TO AND FROM EDINBURGH AND WEST LOTHIAN

MAP: WEST LOTHIAN

Origin Analysis

TABLE 22: SALES IN WEST LOTHIAN AND ITS SUB-MARKET AREAS ORIGINATING FROM CITY OF EDINBURGH Total WLC Sales WLC Sales From CEC % WLC Sales From CEC WLC 1 6126 1191 19% WLC 2 4583 470 10% WLC 3 927 156 17% TOTAL 11636 1817 16%

 11,636 sales occurred in WLC sub-market areas, with more in WLC01 and WLC02 than in WLC03;  1,817 Edinburgh purchasers (4.1%) move to West Lothian, with significantly more moving to WLC01 than WLC02 and WLC03;  Reflecting the reducing volume of Edinburgh purchases moving to sub-markets that are further from the city, Edinburgh purchasers reduce in WLC02 and WLC03 compared to WLC01,  However, even with the lower number of sales to Edinburgh purchasers in WLC03, the low sales volume there inflates the proportional impact of Edinburgh purchasers in this sub-market area;  Overall, the relatively small proportion of Edinburgh purchasers moving to WLC sub-market areas has a significant effect on sales in the area, with 16% of all sales being to Edinburgh purchasers.

Destination Analysis

TABLE 23: PURCHASERS FROM WEST LOTHIAN AND ITS SUB-MARKET AREAS MOVING TO THE CITY OF EDINBURGH Total WLC Purchasers WLC Purchasers Moving to % of WLC Purchasers CEC Moving to CEC WLC01 6407 570 9% WLC02 3308 136 4% WLC03 1071 150 14% TOTAL 10786 856 8%

 There were 10,786 purchasers in the West Lothian sub-market areas, with most in WLC01;  Proportionally very few WLC02 purchasers move to Edinburgh;  In terms of the highest proportionality, 14% of WLC03 purchasers move to Edinburgh.

PURCHASER AND SALES MIGRATION WITHIN, TO AND FROM WEST LOTHIAN SUB-MARKET AREAS

Origin Analysis

TABLE24: SALES IN WLC SUB-HMAS ORIGINATING FROM OTHER SESPLAN SUB- HMAS. WLC1 % of Sales WLC2 % of Sales WLC3 % of Sales Sales in HMA without CECs 4935 4113 771 ELC1 32 0.6% 34 0.8% 4 0.5% ELC2 8 0.2% 4 0.1% 1 0.1% ELC3 6 0.1% 4 0.1% 1 0.1% FC1 60 1.2% 180 4.4% 9 1.2% FC2 5 0.1 14 0.3% 2 0.3% MLC1 44 0.9% 25 0.6% 4 0.5% MLC2 25 0.5% 13 0.3% 7 0.9% SBC1 11 0.2% 2 0.0% 3 0.4% SBC2 1 0.0% 1 0.0% 2 0.3% SBC3 13 0.3% 4 0.1% 1 0.1% SBC4 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% WLC1 4368 88.5% 1053 25.6% 65 8.4% WLC2 327 6.6% 2716 66.0% 38 4.9% WLC3 35 0.7% 63 1.5% 634 82.2% TOTAL 4935 4113 771

Destination Analysis

TABLE 25: PURCHASERS FROM ELC SUB-HMAS MOVING TO 0THER SESPLAN SUB- HMAS WLC1 % of Purchases WLC2 % of WLC3 % of Purchases Purchases Purchasers in HMA without 5837 3172 921 those to CEC ELC1 38 0.7% 8 0.3% 8 0.9% ELC2 5 0.1% 3 0. 1% 4 0.4% ELC3 8 0.1% 3 0. 1% 3 0.3% FC1 114 2.0% 27 0.9% 145 15.7% FC2 67 1.1% 20 0.6% 14 1.5% MLC1 40 0.7% 17 0.5% 3 0.3% MLC2 12 0.2% 3 0.1% 2 0.2% SBC1 23 0.4% 4 0.1% 1 0.1% SBC2 15 0.3% 2 0.1% 3 0.3% SBC3 29 0.5% 4 0.1% 6 0.7% SBC4 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% WLC1 4368 74.8% 327 10.3% 35 3.8% WLC2 1053 18.0% 2716 85.6% 63 6.8% WLC3 65 1.1% 38 1.2% 634 68.8% TOTAL 5837 3172 921

 Reflecting West Lothian’s high level of self containment, only very modest flows to the area occur from FC01 to WLC01 and WLC02, while modest flows from WLC01 and WLC03 occur to FC01.

West Lothian is separate from Edinburgh’s housing market area, with three separate sub-market areas in it.

DEFINING EDINBURGH’S FUNCTIONAL HOUSING MARKET AREA

PURCHASER AND SALES MIGRATION TO AND FROM EDINBURGH AND OTHER SESPLAN AREAS

Table 26 below is based on the tables above. It sets out purchaser and sales migration within Edinburgh and to and from it and the SESplan area. With the exception of Fife (SESplan), all local authority areas experience 10% or more sales in their area to purchasers from Edinburgh. In the case of Fife (SESplan), 8% of sales are to buyers from Edinburgh, but this lower percentage is due to the larger volume of sales there compared to any other sub-market outside the city. This conceals that a high number of purchasers move from Edinburgh to the Fife (SESplan) sub-market areas.

TABLE 26: DISTRIBUTION OF NET PURCHASER MIGRATION FROM CITY OF EDINBURGH TO SESPLAN LOCAL AUTHORITIES Purchasers Sales in CEC % of sales Migration Sales Total Net Distribution Originating made by to CEC of CEC migration Sales Purchaser of Net from CEC CEC purchasers purchasers in to CEC in CEC Migration Purchaser Area Purchasers to other LA from Area from CEC Migration Areas other LA to other from CEC to Areas LA Areas other LAs

CEC 43871 35544 89.7% 8327 4078 39622 4249 9.7%

ELC 30% 2217 1125 1092 25.7% FC 8% 1731 635 1098 25.8% MLC 32% 1751 860 891 21.0% SBC 11% 811 602 209 4.9% WLC 16% 1817 856 961 22.6% TOTAL 8327 4078 4249 100%

 There are more Edinburgh purchasers (43,871) than there are total sales in the city (39,622);  Around 19% of Edinburgh purchasers (8,327) move to surrounding local authority areas;  Approximately 10% of sales in Edinburgh (4,078) are to buyers who originate from surrounding local authority areas;  As such, Edinburgh attracts around half as many buyers from surrounding market areas as the purchasers it generates and directs towards them;  Proportionately, of those sales in the city to buyers from surrounding market areas, most originate from ELC, WLC, MLC, FC and then SBC, with sales to buyers from the closest sub-market areas featuring more strongly than those further away;  Proportionately, of those Edinburgh purchasers who leave the city for the surrounding sub- market areas, most move to those in ELC, WLC, MLC, FC and then SBC, with moves to the closest sub-market areas featuring more strongly than those further away;  Edinburgh purchaser net migration to the surrounding local authority areas is generally equal among FC, ELC, WLC and MLC, but is significantly lower to SBC, with SBC03 and SBC01 featuring more strongly as a destination for Edinburgh purchasers than SBC02 and particularly SBC04;  In terms of mobile demand from Edinburgh, the greatest impact in terms of volume of purchasers originating from Edinburgh is on FC, ELC, WLC, MLC and then SBC.

Table 26 shows that the Edinburgh has a functional housing market area that extends well beyond the city. All local authority areas should be taken as being within Edinburgh’s wider functional housing market area, albeit that the strength of this relationship varies between the surrounding sub-market areas, tending to weaken as distance from the city increases.

Map 2 below illustrates the boundary of the functional Edinburgh Housing Market Area as well as the sub-housing market areas within it. Map 3 illustrates the number of sales to Edinburgh purchasers in those areas expressed as a percentage of all sales in those areas, although this does not illustrate the volume of sales from the city to those areas. However, Map 4 illustrates the impact of mobile demand (sales volume) from Edinburgh purchasers on the functional housing market area.

MAP2: EDINBURGH FUNCTIONAL HOUSING MARKET AREA BOUNDARY

MAP3: SALES DISTRIBUTION WITHIN THE FUNCTIONAL HOUSING MARKET AREA

MAP 4: IMPACT OF EDINBURGH’S MOBILE DEMAND ON FUNCTIONAL HOUSING MARKET AREA