SESplan Housing Need and Demand Assessment 2 Supporting Document 1 Final Housing Market Area Assessment March 2015 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................................... 1 BACKGROUND ........................................................................................................................................ 1 Scottish Planning Policy ...................................................................................................................... 1 Housing Need & Demand Assessment Guidance: Scottish Government 2008 .................................. 2 Local Housing System Analysis Guide, Communities Scotland, 2004 ................................................ 2 METHODOLOGY USED IN THIS STUDY TO DEFINE MARKET AREAS ...................................................... 3 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 3 Baseline Data & Data Refinement ...................................................................................................... 4 Components of the Assessment ......................................................................................................... 4 Origin / Destination Flows .............................................................................................................. 4 Centre to Periphery Flows .............................................................................................................. 5 Other Relevant Factual & Contextual Considerations ................................................................... 5 Assessment Geographies ............................................................................................................... 5 THE IDENTIFIED SESPLAN HOUSING MARKET AREAS ........................................................................... 6 CITY OF EDINBURGH ........................................................................................................................... 8 Sales and purchaser migration within, to and from Edinburgh ..................................................... 8 EAST LOTHIAN................................................................................................................................... 11 Purchaser and sales migration to and from Edinburgh and East Lothian .................................... 11 Purchaser and sales migration within, to and from East Lothian sub-market areas ................... 12 FIFE (SESplan).................................................................................................................................... 13 Purchaser and sales migration to and from Edinburgh and Fife (SESplan) .................................. 13 Purchaser and sales migration within, to and from Fife (SESplan) sub-market areas ................. 14 MIDLOTHIAN ..................................................................................................................................... 15 Purchaser and sales migration to and from Edinburgh and Midlothian ...................................... 15 Purchaser and sales migration within, to and from Midlothian sub-market areas ..................... 16 SCOTTISH BORDERS .......................................................................................................................... 17 Purchaser and sales migration to and from Edinburgh and Scottish Borders ............................. 17 Purchaser and sales migration within, to and from Scottish Borders sub-markets ..................... 18 WEST LOTHIAN ................................................................................................................................. 19 Purchaser and sales migration to and from Edinburgh and West Lothian .................................. 19 Purchaser and sales migration within, to and from West Lothian sub-market areas ................. 20 DEFINING EDINBURGH’S FUNCTIONAL HOUSING MARKET AREA ................................................. 21 Purchaser and sales migration to and from Edinburgh and other SESplan areas........................ 21 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This Housing Market Area Assessment provides an analysis of where home buyers in Edinburgh come from and where Edinburgh purchasers move to in the SESplan area. It also examines where purchasers come from and move to in the surrounding local authority areas. The study findings are: Edinburgh’s Functional Housing Market Area Edinburgh has a functional housing market area that extends to include all the SESplan local authority areas; Within the SESplan area there are 15 sub-market areas, with the City of Edinburgh being one, and two each in Fife and Midlothian, three each in West Lothian and East Lothian and four in Scottish Borders; Edinburgh’s functional housing market area has extended along radial strategic transport corridors into the surrounding sub-market areas; Migration to and from Edinburgh is generally highest between the sub-market areas closest to the city, with the strength of this relationship reducing as distance from the city increases; Spatially, a ‘tiered’ sequential effect from Edinburgh is created in terms of the city’s influence on the sub-market areas around it within the wider functional housing market area; Yet despite this general characteristic, the assessment findings for Central Borders and Northern Borders sub-market areas are that these sub-market areas are similar to second tier sub-market areas in other local authority areas closer to the city; Net purchaser migration from Edinburgh to Fife (SESplan) is numerically comparable to net purchaser migration to Midlothian, East Lothian and West Lothian, with that to Scottish Borders being lower; Edinburgh purchaser migration to surrounding sub-market areas has a greater impact on them when the volume of sales in them is lower, with the most significant effects being in Midlothian, East Lothian and West Lothian then Scottish Borders and Fife (SESplan); Fife (SESplan) sub-market areas are second only to Edinburgh in terms of sales volume, so proportionately the impact of Edinburgh sales migration there is least; In terms of mobile demand from Edinburgh, the greatest impact in terms of the volume of sales from purchasers originating from Edinburgh is on FC, ELC, WLC, MLC and then SBC. City of Edinburgh Sub-market Area The City of Edinburgh is a self contained housing market area, with 89% of sales in the city going to buyers who already live in the city; There are more Edinburgh purchasers than sales in Edinburgh to buyers from Edinburgh; There are also more Edinburgh purchasers than there are total sales in Edinburgh; As such, around 10% of sales in the city are to buyers from surrounding sub-market areas, of which most come from East Lothian, Midlothian and West Lothian, with less from Fife (SESplan) and Scottish Borders; Of the 10% of Edinburgh purchasers that move from the city to surrounding sub-market areas, most of them go to East Lothian, Midlothian, West Lothian and then Fife (SESplan) with fewest going to Scottish Borders; Edinburgh attracts around half as many buyers from surrounding market areas as the purchasers it generates and directs towards them. i Other Housing Sub-Market Areas in the SESplan Area Once sales and purchaser migration to and from Edinburgh is removed from the assessment, a series of local sub-market areas in the SESplan area emerge around Edinburgh. These generally have: High levels of self containment, with few moves across adjoining sub-market areas; Stronger relationships with adjoining / nearby sub-market areas than with more distant ones; Movement between adjoining sub-market areas tends to be towards those with greater population or along or closer to strategic transport corridors or to the city itself; This pattern of movement is strongest in the west between sub-market areas in West Lothian and Fife (SESplan) and in the east between sub-market areas in East Lothian, Midlothian and Scottish Borders; Very few moves occur between these eastern and western ‘clusters’ of sub-market areas; This general pattern of movement between the two separate ‘clusters’ of sub-market areas reflects: · the linear nature of strategic transport corridors to and from Edinburgh; · the physical barrier to direct circulatory movement across the city region created by the Pentland Hills Regional Park; · the single road based transport corridor around the city; and · the more local network of movement routes between nearby towns. These characteristics have played a role in influencing movement and shaping the relationships that have developed between the eastern and western clusters of sub-markets around Edinburgh. Mapping The maps that follow illustrate the: Functional Edinburgh Housing Market Area boundary; The number of sales to Edinburgh purchasers across the SESplan area expressed as a percentage of all sales in those areas; The impact mobile demand (sales volume) from Edinburgh across the functional housing market area; The local sub-housing market areas that have emerged from the study based on amalgamated data zone boundaries. The detailed information and analysis which has been used to generate these maps is contained in the main body of the report. Next Steps This draft study forms the basis for consultation with the SESplan wider Housing Market Partnership. The housing market areas identified in this assessment