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Chapter 6 Broad Technical Assessments

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Chapter 6 Broad Technical Assessments Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study Final Report 6 BROAD TECHNICAL ASSESSMENTS 6.1 Introduction In the RDPs, a number of land proposals have been recommended and a broad technical assessment has been undertaken to evaluate the impacts of these proposals. The land proposals in the RDP are technical feasible and they are briefly described in the following sections. 6.2 Transport and Traffic Assessment 6.2.1 Transport Model Development Arup‟s in-house territory transport model was developed using EMME software which comprises a traditional 4-stage model and is compatible with Transport Department‟s Enhanced Comprehensive Transport Study – 3 (ECTS3) model. It has been well-validated to year 2005 by territory-wide cordons and screenlines and major corridors including Tolo Highway. It is hence recommended to adopt this model as a basis and update it using the latest available planning data and land use data for this Study. The model input assumption for this Study has been recorded in the Technical Note– Parameters, Assumptions and Input data of the Traffic Model circulated in November 2007. However, while the transport model for this Study was developing in 2008, the “North East New Territories New Development Areas Planning and Engineering Study – Investigation” (NENT NDA Study) has commenced with a more updated set of planning parameters and input assumptions provided by various government departments which were reported in its Technical Report 3C. Considered the area that will be excised from the FCA is in vicinity of the NDAs, it is better to adopt the same set of planning assumptions as the reference model scenario for consistency. With the availability of the 2006-based Territorial Population and Employment Data Matrices (TPEDM) land use data released and revised by Planning Department (PlanD) in May and July 2008 respectively, the base year model was developed for year 2006 and it was validated to 2006 traffic condition. The model input data for base year model setup, planning input parameter for design years are described in Appendix C. 6.2.2 Planning Data and Network Assumptions The 2006-based Territorial Population and Employment Data Matrices (TPEDM) land use data released and revised by Planning Department (PlanD) in May and July 2008 respectively is adopted in this Study. Planning data for Years 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031 were provided by Planning Department in the NENT NDA Study. The same set of planning data is adopted in this Study for consistency. Summaries of the population and employment planning data by district for the base year 2006 and design years 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031 are presented in Table 6.2.1 and Table 6.2.2 respectively. Table 6.2.1 Summary of Population Data for Base Year and Design Years 2006 2016 2021 2026 2031 Hong Kong Island Central & Western 263,542 288,552 277,353 277,241 296,554 Wan Chai 192,494 210,195 202,515 203,007 211,804 HK Eastern 588,016 585,613 581,649 582,727 601,331 HK Southern 279,943 301,469 316,814 320,270 331,352 Sub-total 1,323,995 1,385,829 1,378,331 1,383,245 1,441,042 G:\Document\25100\25112 Closed Area\Report\041 Draft Final Page 113 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd Report\041-02 Final Report\041-02 Final Report.doc July 2010 Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study Final Report 2006 2016 2021 2026 2031 Kowloon Urban Yau Ma Tei 198,798 230,982 241,427 242,953 255,932 Mong Kok 137,413 147,396 141,044 141,707 151,354 Sham Shui Po 390,656 463,342 497,963 504,408 529,357 Kowloon City 371,887 439,563 490,479 494,130 511,128 Kwun Tong 594,471 670,920 708,767 716,163 739,908 Wong Tai Sin 429,846 427,518 439,650 442,592 454,435 Sub-total 2,123,072 2,379,721 2,519,331 2,541,953 2,642,115 New Territories Tsuen Wan 279,093 285,619 283,693 286,004 296,314 Kwai Chung 315,940 315,533 336,273 343,011 354,862 Tsing Yi 206,486 197,166 197,704 198,394 203,809 Tuen Mun 489,960 520,486 572,950 579,859 599,218 Yuen Long 143,775 163,169 158,763 160,766 178,846 Tin Shui Wai 272,217 315,291 321,783 324,890 332,725 Tai Po 252,714 257,215 252,532 254,106 261,945 Fanling/ Sheung Shui 237,562 258,035 360,293 362,590 371,124 Shatin 431,749 496,441 493,268 496,254 510,158 Ma On Shan 194,997 223,556 226,657 225,987 229,107 Tseung Kwan O 348,877 426,455 449,313 449,035 456,436 North Lantau 89,245 143,045 223,705 288,974 297,027 Subtotal 3,262,616 3,602,012 3,876,936 3,969,869 4,091,571 Rural Rural NWNT 145,282 206,684 217,582 368,518 410,960 Rural NENT 78,079 105,626 110,643 238,326 262,997 Rural SENT 64,472 78,959 80,404 85,421 101,059 Rural SWNT 67,398 76,103 76,648 80,255 88,936 Sub-total 355,231 467,372 485,277 772,520 863,953 Total 7,064,914 7,834,935 8,259,874 8,667,588 9,038,681 Notes: Population includes Usual Residents and Persons Other than Usual Residents Present in Hong Kong as at Mid-year Persons Other than Usual Residents Present in Hong Kong as at Mid-year including Mobile Residents and Transients Table 6.2.2 Summary of Employment Data for Base Year and Design Years 2006 2016 2021 2026 2031 Hong Kong Island Central & Western 377,746 385,564 380,109 388,632 395,489 Wan Chai 275,644 274,184 280,467 275,378 269,372 HK Eastern 273,372 295,064 288,692 282,913 277,692 HK Southern 92,420 107,287 104,847 111,198 113,032 Sub-total 1,019,181 1,062,099 1,054,115 1,058,120 1,055,585 G:\Document\25100\25112 Closed Area\Report\041 Draft Final Page 114 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd Report\041-02 Final Report\041-02 Final Report.doc July 2010 Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study Final Report 2006 2016 2021 2026 2031 Kowloon Urban Yau Ma Tei 240,371 243,344 235,600 233,508 228,346 Mong Kok 119,221 116,438 112,907 114,423 111,732 Sham Shui Po 198,903 209,586 211,116 209,777 205,923 Kowloon City 176,124 196,568 205,951 208,959 205,303 Kwun Tong 282,511 348,396 373,872 376,058 383,435 Wong Tai Sin 94,631 103,031 103,980 105,899 106,213 Sub-total 1,111,761 1,217,364 1,243,426 1,248,623 1,240,952 New Territories Tsuen Wan 127,643 140,177 143,869 140,006 135,730 Kwai Chung 177,968 194,933 210,277 212,314 207,755 Tsing Yi 35,679 38,736 38,689 38,437 37,418 Tuen Mun 109,733 119,839 118,079 114,505 111,543 Yuen Long 50,237 61,543 60,508 61,489 62,698 Tin Shui Wai 30,742 35,246 34,381 33,714 33,565 Tai Po 73,122 82,127 81,621 79,163 78,174 Fanling/ Sheung Shui 57,596 61,099 61,806 64,784 62,890 Shatin 160,760 171,762 165,139 162,367 159,963 Ma On Shan 30,620 37,352 38,298 37,893 38,069 Tseung Kwan O 64,488 78,055 83,321 86,577 84,362 North Lantau 68,649 112,594 137,000 148,161 147,935 Subtotal 987,237 1,133,462 1,172,988 1,179,409 1,160,102 Rural Rural NWNT 39,942 46,082 47,145 53,626 87,853 Rural NENT 21,247 23,351 28,491 30,949 37,013 Rural SENT 22,259 23,453 24,406 25,512 26,676 Rural SWNT 18,354 23,246 22,393 22,942 23,528 Sub-total 101,802 116,132 122,434 133,030 175,070 Total 3,219,981 3,529,057 3,592,963 3,619,181 3,631,709 6.2.3 Highway Network Assumptions In the NENT NDA Study, Transport Department has been consulted for the latest highway network assumptions to be adopted and it is presented in Table 6.2.3. The same highway assumptions is adopted in this Study for consistency. Table 6.2.3 Highway Infrastructure Assumptions for Design Years 2016, 2021, 2026 and Beyond Year 2016 (In addition to Base Year 2006 Road Network) Configuration Hong Kong Road P2 and realigned Hung Hing Road on Wan Chai Development Phase II D2 Road P1, P2 and Distributor Roads on Central Reclamation Phase III D2 Kowloon Route 6 (formerly Route 11) – Central Kowloon Route D3 Route 6 (formerly Route 11) – Trunk Road T2 (Kai Tak – Cha Kwo Ling Link). D2 G:\Document\25100\25112 Closed Area\Report\041 Draft Final Page 115 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd Report\041-02 Final Report\041-02 Final Report.doc July 2010 Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study Final Report Year 2016 (In addition to Base Year 2006 Road Network) Configuration New Territories Route 9 Extension from Shek Wai Kok to Chai Wan Kok D2 Castle Peak Road Widening (Tsuen Wan Area 2 to Ka Loon Tsuen) D2 Castle Peak Road Widening (Ka Loon Tsuen to Siu Lam) D2 Route 8 (formerly Route 9) (Tsing Yi to Sha Tin) D3 Widening of Tung Chung Road S2 Route 6 (formerly Route 11) – Tseung Kwan O – Lam Tin Tunnel D2 Cross Bay Link at Tseung Kwan O D2 Widening of Tolo Highway/Fanling Highway between Island House Interchange and D4 TsuenFanling Wan (Stage Bypass, 1 – Section Widening between of Tsuen Island Wan House Road Interchange between Tsuen and Tai Tsing Hang) Interchange and (Stage and 2 Add 2 lanes – Section between Tai Hang and Wo Hop Shek Interchange) DuallingKwai Tsing of Hiram‟sInterchange, Highway and betweenAssociated Clear Junction Water Improvement Bay Road and Works Sai Kung Town per directionD2 Hong Kong – Zhuhai – Macao Bridge Hong Kong Link Road D3 Sha Tin Trunk Road T4 D2 Reconstruction and Improvement to Tuen Mun Road D3 Tuen Mun – Chek Lap Kok Link and Tuen Mun Western Bypass D2 Traffic Improvement to Tuen Mun Road (Town Centre Section) D3 Cross Boundary Shenzhen Bay Bridge D3 Kong Sham Western Highway D3 Hong Kong – Zhuhai – Macao Bridge and its Hong Kong Link Road D3 Year 2021 (In addition to 2016 Road Network) Configuration Hong Kong Central – Wan Chai Bypass and Island Eastern Corridor Link D3/D41 Island Eastern Corridor Improvement between Causeway Bay and North Point D4/D51 Kowloon Widening of Gascoigne Road Flyover D2 New Territories Link Road to Liangtang/ Heung Yuen Wai Cross-Boundary Control Point D2 Year 2026 (In addition to 2021 Road Network) and beyond Configuration New Territories Lantau Road P1 between Sham Shui Kok and Yam O D2 Note: The configuration of the highway varies at different sections of the road 6.2.4 Railway Network Assumptions The railway network assumption is obtained from the Railway Development Office of Highways Department in the NENT NDA Study and is listed in Table 6.2.4.
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