DOCSLIB.ORG

A Diagnostic Study of the Intensity of Three Tropical Cyclones in the Australian Region

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
A Diagnostic Study of the Intensity of Three Tropical Cyclones in the Australian Region 22 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 138 A Diagnostic Study of the Intensity of Three Tropical Cyclones in the Australian Region. Part II: An Analytic Method for Determining the Time Variation of the Intensity of a Tropical Cyclone* FRANCE LAJOIE AND KEVIN WALSH School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia (Manuscript received 20 November 2008, in final form 14 May 2009) ABSTRACT The observed features discussed in Part I of this paper, regarding the intensification and dissipation of Tropical Cyclone Kathy, have been integrated in a simple mathematical model that can produce a reliable 15– 30-h forecast of (i) the central surface pressure of a tropical cyclone, (ii) the sustained maximum surface wind and gust around the cyclone, (iii) the radial distribution of the sustained mean surface wind along different directions, and (iv) the time variation of the three intensity parameters previously mentioned. For three tropical cyclones in the Australian region that have some reliable ground truth data, the computed central surface pressure, the predicted maximum mean surface wind, and maximum gust were, respectively, within 63 hPa and 62ms21 of the observations. Since the model is only based on the circulation in the boundary layer and on the variation of the cloud structure in and around the cyclone, its accuracy strongly suggests that (i) the maximum wind is partly dependent on the large-scale environmental circulation within the boundary layer and partly on the size of the radius of maximum wind and (ii) that all factors that contribute one way or another to the intensity of a tropical cyclone act together to control the size of the eye radius and the central surface pressure. 1. Introduction intensity and radial wind profile. The model uses input parameters that are readily available and simple to use. The problem of forecasting tropical cyclone intensity The principles upon which the new model is based are and wind field remains an important issue in tropical further described here and then expanded in the en- meteorology. A review of recent work is contained in suing sections. Lajoie and Walsh (2010, hereafter Part I). Based on the Because different atmospheric processes are involved sequence of observed characteristic features during in different parts of a tropical cyclone, and also because intensification and dissipation of Tropical Cyclone the radial wind profiles in different regions have distinct Kathy in Part I, we have developed a mathematical physical features (Shea and Gray 1973), analysis of the model for forecasting all aspects of tropical cyclone circulation is considered in four distinct regions, as shown intensity. As discussed in Part I, it was suggested that in Fig. 1. Region 1 is the circular area of radius r , the eye the inflow of a band of moist, near-equatorial air into e radius. Region 2 is the annular area between r and r . the cyclone center was responsible for bursts of in- e m Region 3 is the area bounded between radii r and r , tensification of the storm. In addition, it was proposed m c the radius of the inner core of the cyclone or of the that the inflow angle of the band was related to the rate central dense overcast (CDO) region, which on average of intensification. The concepts are used here to de- is 18 latitude, as it was for Kathy. The two last regions velop an accurate numerical model of tropical cyclone contain the eyewall cloud, the maximum wind, most of the destructive winds, and very heavy precipitation. * Supplemental information related to this paper is available at the Region 4 is between rc and a radius of 48 latitude. Journals Online Web site: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR2876.s1. To start the analysis, an initial radial wind profile in region 4 a few hours before the start of intensification, or Corresponding author address: Kevin Walsh, School of Earth at t 5 0, is obtained from a streamline and isotach anal- Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville VIC, 3010 Australia. ysis. The initial radial surface pressure profile is then cal- E-mail: [email protected] culated to balance the wind profile. Because (i) the feeder DOI: 10.1175/2009MWR2876.1 Ó 2010 American Meteorological Society Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/29/21 04:37 AM UTC JANUARY 2010 L A J O I E A N D W A L S H 23 In region 2, the wind is assumed to decrease linearly from Vrm to zero at the cyclone center and the cyclo- strophic wind equation is used to obtain pre, the surface pressure at re. Since surface pressure does not vary ap- preciably with radius in the eye of a cyclone (see rele- vant barograms on 285–286 in Riehl (1954)), pre 5 pc, the central surface pressure. Parameters rm and re are determined from the Trop- ical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI; Simpson et al. 1988; Lonfat et al. 2004), TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) data (Iguchi et al. 2000), or digitized high-resolution IR satellite cloud data (see Lajoie 2007; Lajoie and Walsh 2008). Finally, by using a reduction factor to convert gradient-level mean wind to mean surface winds, and the mean asymmetric FIG. 1. The inner and outer regions of a tropical cyclone. The wind distribution around a tropical cyclone, the hori- former is subdivided into the following: region 1, the eye where 0 # zontal distribution of the sustained mean surface wind as r # re; region 2 where re , r , rm (rm being the radius of maximum well as the maximum gust around the cyclone can be wind); region 3 where rm # r # rc (rc being the external radius of the estimated. CDO); and region 4, the outer region where r , r # 48 latitude. c Section 2 of this paper details the mathematical for- mulation of the prediction model. Section 3 gives results band originates at about 440 km from the cyclone center, of hindcast predictions of intensity changes for Tropical (ii) only moist near-equatorial air spirals through the Cyclone Kathy using the model. Section 4 shows calcu- feeder band into the cyclone core and no cool dry trade air lations of the estimated radial wind profile in Kathy. participates in the cyclonic circulation during intensifica- Section 5 gives hindcast intensity predictions for two tion, and (iii) the convective cloud suppression around the other cyclones, section 6 discusses issues associated with cyclone during the period of intense convection in the the intensification rate of cyclones, and section 7 pro- CDO is observed to extend to about that distance, it is vides concluding remarks. assumed that all physical processes that influence the cy- clone intensity take place within 440 km of the cyclone 2. Model formulation center and that only the cyclonic circulation starting from 440 km to the north and northeast of the cyclone center a. Region 4 (rc # r # r4) needs to be taken into consideration to determine the 1) CIRCULATION ANALYSIS IN REGION 4 change in its intensity or in its intensification rate. An energy equation is then applied to the circulation Streamlines around stationary axisymmetric tropical in region 4. It is shown that because of the sudden cyclones are logarithmic spirals (see Abdullah 1966; change of a4, the angle of inflow at a radius of 48 latitude, Lahiri 1981; Wong et al. 2007). According to Senn and to the north and east of the cyclone at t 5 0, gradient- Hiser (1957, 1959), the trajectories of air parcels are level winds subsequently increase at all radii in region 4 equiangular logarithmic spirals far from the cyclone (48 latitude . r $ 18 latitude). On assuming that air center, while close to the center the angle of inflow de- trajectories are logarithmic spirals, the distances trav- creases with decreasing radius. A similar assumption is eled by air parcels between selected radii can be de- used here. In region 4, the angle of inflow a (see Fig. 2), termined, and from the radial wind profile, Vrc the wind in the northerly airstream to the north and northeast of at r 5 rc or 18 latitude and the time at which air parcels the cyclone, which is assumed to be constant between leaving r 5 48 latitude reaches rc can also be determined. radii 48 and 28 latitude and varies as shown in Fig. 2 for In region 3, a theoretically determined gradient-level smaller radii. The maximum angle of inflow is 208 before wind profile, particularly developed for that region by intensification, 42.58 and later 338 during intensification, Riehl (1954, 1963) and empirically documented by Shea and 208 during dissipation as observed in Fig. 5 of Part I. and Gray (1973), is then used to determine the gradient- The angle of inflow a is assumed to decrease linearly to level winds at different selected radii and the maximum 208 for 28 latitude $ r $ 18 latitude and to decrease to 108 wind Vrm at rm. The gradient wind equation is then used for 18 latitude . r $ 08 latitude. The last assumption is to obtain the surface pressure gradient and the surface made to simplify the computations of pc without greatly pressure at selected radii and at rm. affecting the results. Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/29/21 04:37 AM UTC 24 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 138 The solid curves ending with an arrow represent the streamlines. AB is an arc of a circle of radius r. The quantity P is the location of an air parcel moving along the s direction with a speed V. Vector n is normal to the s direction, u is the angle POX, and O is the cyclone center.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Wave Data Recording Program
    Wave data recording program Weipa Region 1978–2004 Coastal Sciences data report No. W2004.5 ISSN 1449–7611 Abstract This report provides summaries of primary analysis of wave data recorded in water depths of approximately 5.2m relative to lowest astronomical tide, 10km west of Evans Landing in Albatross Bay, west of Weipa. Data was recorded using a Datawell Waverider buoy, and covers the periods from 22 December, 1978 to 31 January, 2004. The data was divided into seasonal groupings for analysis. No estimations of wave direction data have been provided. This report has been prepared by the EPA’s Coastal Sciences Unit, Environmental Sciences Division. The EPA acknowledges the following team members who contributed their time and effort to the preparation of this report: John Mohoupt; Vince Cunningham; Gary Hart; Jeff Shortell; Daniel Conwell; Colin Newport; Darren Hanis; Martin Hansen; Jim Waldron and Emily Christoffels. Wave data recording program Weipa Region 1978–2004 Disclaimer While reasonable care and attention have been exercised in the collection, processing and compilation of the wave data included in this report, the Coastal Sciences Unit does not guarantee the accuracy and reliability of this information in any way. The Environmental Protection Agency accepts no responsibility for the use of this information in any way. Environmental Protection Agency PO Box 15155 CITY EAST QLD 4002. Copyright Copyright © Queensland Government 2004. Copyright protects this publication. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of study, research, criticism or review as permitted under the Copyright Act, no part of this report can be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without having prior written permission.
    [Show full text]
  • Dugongs Information Valid As of June 2014
    Dugongs Information valid as of June 2014 mortality from boat strike, or chronic indirect Summary pressures on seagrass meadows resulting from declining water quality. Boat strike is more likely to Diversity occur in areas adjacent to population centres and Single species – dugong (Dugong dugon, last entrances to busy ports that may also be important remaining species of the family Dugongidae; Order: foraging grounds for dugongs. These areas might Sirenia) also be exposed to declining water quality from catchment run-off and habitat degradation due to Susceptibility increased coastal and marine development. The Life-history traits that predispose dugongs to threats combination of these pressures over time can cause include being long-lived with low reproductive impacts on dugong health, the availability or health of potential, delayed sexual maturity, high female their food (primarily seagrasses) and eventually the investment in each offspring, migratory (they range status of the population. across international boundaries into areas where they Applied or assessed separately, these pressures may are highly targeted and less protected), and a reliance not seem significant, but research indicates the on inshore habitats which increases their exposure to combined and cumulative impact of these major human-related and land-based threats. pressures present significant concerns for the conservation and management of dugongs in the Major pressures World Heritage Area. Impacts of greatest significance to dugongs south of Cooktown are habitat
    [Show full text]
  • Download Date 28/09/2021 05:31:59
    Dugong Status Report and Action Plans for Countries and Territories Item Type Report Authors Eros, C.; Hugues, J.; Penrose, H.; Marsh, H. Citation UNEP/DEWA/RS.02-1 Publisher UNEP Download date 28/09/2021 05:31:59 Link to Item http://hdl.handle.net/1834/317 Figure 5.1 – The Palau region in relation to the Philippines and Indonesia. used to give dugong ribs to a carver who had died performed mainly at night from small boats powered with recently. Locally crafted jewellery from dugong ribs was outboard motors (>35hp). Most dugongs are harpooned on sale at a minimum of four stores in Koror in 1991. At after being chased. A hunter who used to dynamite least two of the retailers knew that this was illegal (Marsh dugongs (Brownell et al. 1981) claimed that he had et al. 1995). This practice had stopped by 1997 (Idechong ceased this practice in 1978. The hunters interviewed in & Smith pers comm. 1998). 1991 maintained that nets are never used to catch The major threat to dugongs in Palau is poaching. dugongs, although some of them knew that netting is an Although hunting is illegal, dugongs are still poached effective capture method. All the hunters were aware that regularly in the Koror area and along the western coast of killing dugongs is illegal. Their overwhelming motive for Babeldaob (Figure 5.2). The extent and nature of hunting hunting is that it is an exciting way to obtain meat. The was investigated by Brownell et al. (1981) and Marsh et illegality adds to the thrill.
    [Show full text]
  • An Ethnobiological Study of the Usage of Marine Resources by Two Aboriginal Communities on the East Coast of Cape York Peninsula, Australia
    ResearchOnline@JCU This file is part of the following reference: Smith, Andrew John (1987) An ethnobiological study of the usage of marine resources by two Aboriginal communities on the east coast of Cape York Peninsula, Australia. PhD thesis, James Cook University of North Queensland. Access to this file is available from: http://researchonline.jcu.edu.au/33712/ If you believe that this work constitutes a copyright infringement, please contact [email protected] and quote http://researchonline.jcu.edu.au/33712/ An Ethnobiological Study of the Usage of Marine Resources by Two Aboriginal Communities on the East Coast of Cape York Peninsula, Australia. Thesis submitted by Andrew John SMITH BSc(Hons)(JCUNQ) in December 1987 for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of Zoology at James Cook University of North Queensland ACCESS I, the undersigned, the author of this thesis, understand that James Cook University of North Queensland will make available for use within the University Library and, by microfilm or other photographic means, allow access to users in other approved' libraries. All users consulting this thesis will have to sign the following statement: "In consulting this thesis I agree not to copy or closely paraphrase it in whole or in part without the written consent of the author; and to make proper written acknowledgement for any assistance which I have obtained from it." Beyond this, I do not wish to place any restriction on access to this thesis. (signature) (date) DECLARATION I declare that this thesis is my own work and has not been submitted in any form for another degree or diploma at any university or other institution of tertiary education.
    [Show full text]
  • Monthly Beach Profiles 6 I 4.0 ATTACHMENTS
    I ISSN 0158-7749 I I I I I I I I COASTAL OBSERVATION PROGRAMME - ENGINEERING (COPE) TRINITY BEACH -MULGRAVE SHIRE I FOR THE YEARS 1981 TO 1989 I REPORT NO. C27.1 I I I I I I Beach Protection Authority I December 1989 I I I I I I I I I This report was prepared by the Coastal Management Programme of the I Department of Harbours and Marine on behalf of the Beach Protection Authority. All reasonable care and attention has been exercised in the collection, I processing and compilation of the COPE data included in this report. However, the accuracy and reliability of this information is not guaranteed in any way by the Beach Protection Authority and the Authority accepts no I responsibility for the use of this information in any way whatsoever. I I I I I I I I I I I DOCUMENTATION PAGE I REPORT NO.:- C27 .1 TITLE:- Report - Coastal Observation Programme - Engineering (COPE), I Trinity Beach - Mulgrave Shire DATE:- December 1989 I TYPE OF REPORT:- Technical Memorandum PREPARED BY:- Coastal Management Programme of the Department of Harbours and Marine on behalf I of the Beach Protection Authority. ISSUING ORGANISA'llON:- Beach Protection Authority G.P.O. BOX 2595 I BRISBANE QLD 4001 AUSTRALIA I DISTRIBUTION:- Public Distribution I ABSTRACT:- This report provides a summary of primary analyses of COPE data on wind, wave and beach processes observed at Trinity Beach in the Shire of Mulgrave on the north Queensland coast. The data was recorded by volunteer I observers during the period November 1981 to June 1989.
    [Show full text]
  • Tropical Cyclone Parameter Estimation in the Australian Region
    Tropical Cyclone Parameter Estimation in the Australian Region: Wind-Pressure Relationships and Related Issues for Engineering Planning and Design A Discussion Paper November 2002 by On behalf of Bruce Harper BE PhD Cover Illustration: Bureau of Meteorology image of Severe Tropical Cyclone Olivia, Western Australia, April 1996. Report No. J0106-PR003E November 2002 Prepared by: Systems Engineering Australia Pty Ltd 7 Mercury Court Bridgeman Downs QLD 4035 Australia ABN 65 073 544 439 Tel/Fax: +61 7 3353-0288 Email: [email protected] WWW: http://www.uq.net.au/seng Copyright © 2002 Woodside Energy Ltd Systems Engineering Australia Pty Ltd i Prepared for Woodside Energy Ltd Contents Executive Summary………………………………………………………...………………….……iii Acknowledgements………………………………………………………………………….………iv 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................1 2 The Need for Reliable Tropical Cyclone Data for Engineering Planning and Design Purposes.2 3 A Brief Overview of Relevant Published Works.........................................................................4 3.1 Definitions............................................................................................................................4 3.2 Dvorak (1972,1973,1975) and Erickson (1972)...................................................................7 3.3 Sheets and Grieman (1975)................................................................................................10 3.4 Atkinson and Holliday
    [Show full text]
  • Cumulative Impact Assessment Supporting Information
    APPENDIX A5 Cumulative Impacts Assessment Supporting Information Appendix A5 Cumulative Impacts Assessment Supporting Information October 2016 1.0 Supporting Information to the Revised Cumulative Impacts Assessment 1.1 Introduction This report provides relevant information that was used to develop the revised cumulative impact assessment prepared as part of this AEIS as outlined in Chapter 25.0 of the AEIS. Information presented below includes: . identification of the potential stressors that may impact upon Sensitive Ecological Receptors . characterisation of the likelihood of occurrence of these stressors . consideration of how the distribution and condition of the Sensitive Ecological Receptors varies over time . the risks of these individual stressors on Sensitive Ecological Receptors in Cleveland Bay. Consistent with recently released guidelines, including the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA) Framework for Understanding Cumulative Impacts Supporting Environmental Decisions and Informing Resilience- Based Management of the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area (GBRMPA Guidelines) (Anthony, Dambacher, Walshe, & Beeden, 2013), the focus of this assessment has been on two particular Sensitive Ecological Receptors; namely coral reefs and seagrass meadows. 1.2 Identified Potential Stressors on Sensitive Ecological Receptors The stressors considered in this cumulative impact analysis are categorised into: . large-scale external drivers, including climate change derived ocean warming and ocean acidification . strong synoptic weather events, especially cyclones . contribution of sediments, nutrients and pesticides, from land-use changes, urban development and sediments re-mobilised by dredging activities . fishing, tourism and marine transport stressors. The key cause-effect relationships discussed in this assessment can be seen in the influence diagram presented in Figure 1. This figure shows the main cause-effect or risk propagation linkages (risk pathways) between stressors and ecological endpoints (Sensitive Ecological Receptors).
    [Show full text]
  • The Anatomical Basis of the Link Between Density And'mechanical
    CSIRO PUBLISHING Functional P lant Biology, 2013, 40, 400-408 http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/FP12204 The anatomical basis of the link between density and mechanical strength in mangrove branches Nadia S. SantiniA, Nele SchmitzB/C, Vicki BennionA and Catherine E. LovelockA/D AThe School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia, laboratory for Plant Biology and Nature Management, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels 1 050, Belgium. cLaboratory for W ood Biology and Xylarium, Royal Museum for Central Africa, Leuvensesteenweg 1 3, 3080 Tervuren, Belgium. DCorresponding author. Email: [email protected] Abstract. Tree branches are important as they support the canopy, which controls photo synthetic carbon gain and determines ecological interactions such as competition with neighbours. Mangrove trees are subject to high wind speeds, strong tidal flows and waves that can damage their branches. The survival and establishment of mangroves partly depend on the structural and mechanical characteristics of their branches. In addition, mangroves are exposed to soils that vary in salinity. Highly saline conditions can increase the tension in the water column, imposing mechanical stresses on the xylem vessels. Here, we investigated how mechanical strength, assessed as the modulus of elasticity (MOE) and the modulus of rupture (MOR), and density relate to the anatomical characteristics of intact mangrove branches from southeast Queensland and whether the mechanical strength of branches varies among mangrove species. Mechanical strength was positively correlated with density of mangrove intact branches. Mechanical strength (MOE) varied among species, with Avicennia marina (Forssk.) Vierh. branches having the highest mechanical strength (2079 ± 176 MPa), and Rhizophora stylosa Griff, and Bruguiera gymnorrhiza (L.) Savigny ex Lam.
    [Show full text]
  • A Diagnostic Study of the Intensity of Three Tropical Cyclones in the Australian Region
    VOLUME 138 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW JANUARY 2010 A Diagnostic Study of the Intensity of Three Tropical Cyclones in the Australian Region. Part I: A Synopsis of Observed Features of Tropical Cyclone Kathy (1984) FRANCE LAJOIE AND KEVIN WALSH School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia (Manuscript received 20 November 2008, in final form 13 May 2009) ABSTRACT Objective streamline analyses and digitized high-resolution IR satellite cloud data have been used to ex- amine in detail the changes in the environmental circulation and in the cloud structure that took place in and around Tropical Cyclone Kathy (1984) when it started to intensify, and during its intensification and dissi- pation stages. The change of low-level circulation around Tropical Cyclone Kathy was measured by the change in the angle of inflow (a4) at a radius of 48 latitude from the cyclone center. When Kathy started to intensify, a4 increased suddenly from 208 to 42.58 in the northerly airstream to the north and northeast of the depression, and decreased to 08 to the south of the depression. At that stage the low-level circulation around the depression appeared as a giant swirl that started some 600 km to the north and northeast of the depression and spiraled inward toward its center, while trade air, which is usually cool, dry, and stable, did not enter the cyclonic circulation. The angle a4 remained the same during intensification. During the dissipation stage, a4 returned to 208 and trade air started to participate in the cyclonic circulation. Satellite cloud data were used to determine the origin, evolution, and importance of the feeder bands in the intensification of the cyclone, to follow the moist near-equatorial air that flowed through them and to estimate the maximum height of cumulonimbi that developed in them, to observe the changes in the convective activity in the central dense overcast (CDO) area, as well as in the area around the CDO.
    [Show full text]
  • Big Blow up North by Kevin Murphy (5.75 MB Pdf)
    �. ,\t to tb& ot 1 n en U. \ on'" a � �e. �\ch .t � ef­ ��T\a &,.1'\11 \u.f\ o \\1 ct,\ca k'Tl\ o• tenc n� a.. � 01e deetf :) n"a r�, I\�,,(') b" -«1� nt\\ li g"Y �­ :\ �\n <qef'.t ngro e tl\a & , utun ;r;'" '" c Bi9BCow up North (A History of Tropicaf cyclones in Australia's Northern Territory) by KEVIN MURPHY --- © KEVIN MURPHY Published by University Planning Authority G.P.O. Box 1154 DAR N, 5794 First tion 1984 ISBN 07245 0660 8 G. L DUFFIELD, Government Printer of the Northern Territory CONTENTS . ... List of photographs .................................. VII Map of Northern Territory cyclone coasts ......... VIII . ............................... ........... Foreword . ....... IX . ... ....................... ......... Preface . ................. X . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 1 Chapter 1 First Experiences Chapter 2 The Great Hurricane ........................................ 11 . ....... ............ Chapter 3 An Active Decade ....................... 19 Chapter 4 The Saga of s.s. Douglas Mawson ......... ............... 27 . ........................ Chapter 5 Darwin Revisited ................... 35 . .......... Chapter 6 The Great Roper Flood ......................... 41 . ..... ............ ....... Chapter 7 The Post-War Period ............... 47 . ....... Chapter 8 Evolution of a Cyclone Warning System ....... 51 Chapter 9 Tracy ............................................................ 55 .. ......... ............... Chapter 10 Kathy ........ ........................ 65 . ................................... .. Notes and
    [Show full text]
  • Disruptive Weather Warnings and Weather Knowledge in Remote Australian Indigenous Communities
    Disruptive weather warnings and weather knowledge in remote Australian Indigenous communities Flat and floodprone, East Kimberley Fuel delivery, Balgo Some of The People, Oombulgarri Research report Dr Douglas Goudie, Research Associate Centre for Disaster Studies, James Cook University, Townsville North Queensland, Australia, For Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne. May 2004. 2 Weather warnings and weather knowledge in remote Indigenous communities Section Topic Page 1 Executive summary 4 Outline of recommendations 7 2 Aims and method 9 3 General background and results overview 13 4 Research outcomes 21 4.1 Traditional weather predictors and some modern issues 58 5 Definitions, language, cognition and behaviour 65 5.1 Language and symbols 66 5.2 Why we do what we do 75 6 Extreme weather impacts – old 82 7 Extreme weather impacts - recent 98 8 Third Millennium approach to hazards 118 9 Risk communication 124 10 Discussion 138 11 Core outcomes and recommendations 143 12 Conclusions 166 References 168 Appendix 174 1 Survey guide A2 2 Permission form A3 3 Record details of all communities reported A8 Maps 4.1 Remote Aboriginal Communities surveyed 21 4.2 Cape York and Torres Straight communities surveyed 22 4.3 Coastal northern Queensland communities surveyed 23 4.4 East Kimberley communities surveyed 24 Tables 7.1 Time respondents became aware of Cyclone Tracy danger 106 7.2 Precautions before Cyclone Tracy 106 7.3 Evaluation of reactions to warning and reasons for reactions 106 8.1 CDS Evacuation matrix: responses to threats 119
    [Show full text]
  • The Impacts and Management Implications of Climate Change for the Australian Government's Protected Areas
    The Impacts and Management Implications of Climate Change for the Australian Government's Protected Areas Discussion Paper March 2008 Final Report A report to the DEPARTMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENT, WATER, HERITAGE AND THE ARTS and the DEPARTMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE © Commonwealth of Australia 2008 ISBN 978-1-921298-06-6 This work is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced by any process without prior written permission from the Commonwealth, available from the Department of Climate Change. Requests and inquiries concerning reproduction and rights should be addressed to: Assistant Secretary Adaptation and Science Branch Department of Climate Change GPO Box 854 CANBERRA ACT 2601 Disclaimer The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Australian Government or the Minister for Climate Change and Water and the Minister for the Environment, Heritage and the Arts. Note on the names of Departments referred to in this report Name changes to the Australian Government’s environment department have occurred over the past several years. This report refers to: • The Department of the Environment and Heritage (DEH); • The Department of the Environment and Water Resources (DEW); • The Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts (DEWHA) – current name; and • The Department of Climate Change – current name (formerly the Australian Greenhouse Office in DEW) Page i The Impacts and Management Implications of Climate
    [Show full text]