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Disruptive Weather Warnings and Weather Knowledge in Remote Australian Indigenous Communities

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Disruptive Weather Warnings and Weather Knowledge in Remote Australian Indigenous Communities Disruptive weather warnings and weather knowledge in remote Australian Indigenous communities Flat and floodprone, East Kimberley Fuel delivery, Balgo Some of The People, Oombulgarri Research report Dr Douglas Goudie, Research Associate Centre for Disaster Studies, James Cook University, Townsville North Queensland, Australia, For Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne. May 2004. 2 Weather warnings and weather knowledge in remote Indigenous communities Section Topic Page 1 Executive summary 4 Outline of recommendations 7 2 Aims and method 9 3 General background and results overview 13 4 Research outcomes 21 4.1 Traditional weather predictors and some modern issues 58 5 Definitions, language, cognition and behaviour 65 5.1 Language and symbols 66 5.2 Why we do what we do 75 6 Extreme weather impacts – old 82 7 Extreme weather impacts - recent 98 8 Third Millennium approach to hazards 118 9 Risk communication 124 10 Discussion 138 11 Core outcomes and recommendations 143 12 Conclusions 166 References 168 Appendix 174 1 Survey guide A2 2 Permission form A3 3 Record details of all communities reported A8 Maps 4.1 Remote Aboriginal Communities surveyed 21 4.2 Cape York and Torres Straight communities surveyed 22 4.3 Coastal northern Queensland communities surveyed 23 4.4 East Kimberley communities surveyed 24 Tables 7.1 Time respondents became aware of Cyclone Tracy danger 106 7.2 Precautions before Cyclone Tracy 106 7.3 Evaluation of reactions to warning and reasons for reactions 106 8.1 CDS Evacuation matrix: responses to threats 119 9.1 Rohrmann’s Risk Communication process 127 9.2 Rohrmann’s components of the risk communication process 128 3 Figures 4.1 A typical Thursday Island day 27 4.2 Showing the BoM site to Remote users – Halls Creek 37 4.3 Local radar images available via the web 38 4.4 The Sturt Creek 40 4.5 Power generator, Ringer Soak 42 4.6 Active warning image - fire warning 63 4.7 Active warning image - destructive wind warning 63 4.8 Active warning image - flood warning 64 5.1 Signs for life 70 5.2 Stern’s 1995 behavioural explanation model 72 5.3 Possible determinants of activity patterns 75 5.4 The Oombulgurri settlement, WA 76 5.5 A graphic how-to of social marketing 80 7.1 Darwin devastation – Cyclone Tracy 104 7.2 Brisbane flood 1974 108 9.1 Rohrmann’s risk communication model, process framework 130 9.2 Rohrmann’s Informing about risks from hazards 131 10.1 An image of terror in 2004 139 10.2 Nearly crossing a flooded road – Tully NQ 2004 140 11.1 Using graphics to stimulate behaviour 149 11.2 Graphic weather threat information – Active warning images 151 11.3 International weather information graphics 152 11.4 What flood threatened residents need to consider 152 The National Health Strategy 1999 Australians are entitled to live in a safe and healthy environment From: DoH. 2000. The National Environmental Health Strategy Implementation Plan. Federal Australian Department of Health, enHealth Council. “The Aboriginal Elders interviewed at Mapoon believe that their knowledge of seasonal weather patterns, passed on from generation to generation, is becoming less reliable for season predictions and that the Australian weather patterns are changing”. - A note from Joanna Williams (Bureau of Meteorology) Old Mapoon Weather Information Report, September 2003. An old man on Palm Island said much the same thing about ‘reading’ clouds since 1992. - Goudie, September 2003. 4 Executive summary Our ability to accurately predict the weather and communicate that knowledge is constantly improving. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology, established in 1908, remains focused on who should receive those predictions and how well they may hear and respond to them. Because of extreme and potentially catastrophic natural events in the past, the BoM continues to seek ways to best convey targetted weather warnings to people who need to know of a looming threat, so they can make informed decisions and responses. This is largely successful, and well appreciated in the 18 remote Aboriginal communities surveyed directly for this research. The nine-month research into weather warnings arriving at and translating into proactive responses in remote Aboriginal communities makes recommendations likely to benefit people in remote areas, and more broadly. This research report on remote Aboriginal weather warnings and responses has the core sustainability goal of effectively informing aware and prepared communities of developing major weather threats, to minimise the impacts of those threats. This is to minimise loss of life or injury to people and minimise damage to property – to get out of the way of destructive natural impacts, or properly prepare for and shelter from those impacts. People need to know about those threats in a timely and palatable form. Consultation at 18 remote Aboriginal communities and inclusion of a further 12 JCU-based studies showed these communities generally had modern, climate appropriate housing, often with solar water heating. Houses were large, able to accommodate extended family. Most communities had about 150 – 200 residents. The research found caring and resilient communities, all using BoM information, nearly all checking the BoM internet weather site each day for the summer months each year. Finding out what people want and need communicated, and then how that information may best be communicated has occupied the BoM since the early 1900s. This research has shown that the onset of the Wet – the first major rains – is a core weather issue in remote mainland Aboriginal communities. Knowing the nature – onset, duration and depth of floods is important. In the north of Australia, cyclones and rain are not greatly differentiated, knowing that strong wind warnings are difficult to deliver in time, unless the winds are cyclonic. A main feature of the communities was reliance on diesel as the energy source for generating power to pump water and sewage, run refrigeration, lighting, televisions, air conditioning in administration buildings and electronic communications. Use of 1000 litres of fuel per day was common. The importance of predicting the start of the Wet, which stops ground transport, perhaps flooding roads for three months, becomes clear in the flat ancient lands, home to most visited communities. BoM may choose to devote more modelling resources to pinpoint the start of the Wet in Northern ‘weather regions’. 5 Refining ‘Plain English Weather Warnings’ remains a challenge for BoM, given the specialised features the warnings must describe. A collaborative project has begun between BoM and the Indigenous Radio Network to refine the ‘palatability’ of weather warnings as broadcast through a network of 150 radio transmitters from Mackay on the central Queensland coast to Broome in the west. Recommendations include the full sharing of weather and flood data within and between agencies, within and across borders. Development of a new, visual standard of best/most effective practise for what amounts to a marketing exercise in warning of extreme weather impacts is strongly encouraged. This may involve Emergency Management Australia, and include development of computer simulations of major flood flowing across the real terrain under threat to trigger the desired response to take avoidance action. Timely, targetted ‘call to action’ disruptive weather warnings, identified as applicable to remote Aboriginal communities, become as important to other remote communities, to other, more urban communities, so research targetting the marginalised becomes applicable to the mainstream. ‘Call to action’ warnings may be as relevant to a tourist, a shop keeper in Kununurra or pastoralists as they are to a community member at Mulan. Threat of flood means travel early, and then stay put, or just stay put in a dry, above-flood level place with adequate food, water and shelter. Graphic ‘action’ signs or symbols should be developed for impending flood, fire or destructive wind warnings. The graphic for flood, placed as road signs at flood-prone bridges and used in BoM forecast messages – a car underwater in a flooded creek with a distressed person on top - will get a core message across. The long standing BoM logo was identified as most effective to make people think of cyclones. Development of an image of a distressed person watching as their house is torn apart in flying debris is a suggested graphic to induce people to secure potential missiles, then take firm shelter before a major wind storm. These suggestions will be presented to Emergency Management Australia for development. As with these examples, the research outcomes draw heavily from members of the communities visited, on concepts from the Risk Communication literature, and from the current social philosophies of community empowerment and community safety. From the 18 communities visited, and information drawn from another 12 in allied research, it is clear that the remote communities often use TV as their initial warning source that disruptive weather may be developing. A stronger, voluntary link between BoM and regional TV stations may wish to strengthen the content of local weather details for regional use. Learning about Perth Weather does not really interest people in the Tanami of the East Kimberley. Experience in the communities showed that the core human aspirations are as strong in remote areas as anywhere. People enjoy TV, comfortable 6 houses, processed food and various comforts provided by electricity – refrigeration, lighting, town water, sewage pumping, office air conditioning and telecommunications. Shelter, relative security and belonging are gained with the physical isolation, separating residents from more sophisticated education, immediate healthcare and a broad range of employment. There is a high use of television, while children have full Web access, and access to culture. The remote Aboriginal communities are different because of their often extreme isolation, their often very limited employment opportunities and the way many of the lads feel school is for kids after they go through ‘ceremony’ at about 14 years of age.
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