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A Story of Migration P/E LTM 34.8X EV/EBITDA LTM 24.7X Canada Goose Parkas Have Been Well Loved by Those in the Cold for Over Six Decades

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A Story of Migration P/E LTM 34.8X EV/EBITDA LTM 24.7X Canada Goose Parkas Have Been Well Loved by Those in the Cold for Over Six Decades RESEARCHFebruaryREPORT 3, 2020 FebruaryA 3, Story 2020 of Migration Stock Rating BUY Price Target CAD $66.56 Current Price CAD $39.64 Bear Price Bull Case Target Case $53.75 $66.56 $72.96 Ticker GOOS Canada Goose Holdings Inc. Market Cap (MM) $4,755 A Story of Migration P/E LTM 34.8x EV/EBITDA LTM 24.7x Canada Goose parkas have been well loved by those in the cold for over six decades. The company was founded in 1957 under the name Metro 52 Week Performance Sportswear, originally serving as a small-scale supplier to the most demanding winter customers such as the Canadian Rangers and RCMP. 115 Since then, the brand has grown to global prominence, going public in 2017 while committing to keep design and manufacturing in Canada. 100 GOOS generated a C$144M in profit on C$830M in revenue in 2019 while commanding gross margins of 62%. However, shares have fallen over 50% since the high in November 2018, creating an intriguing opportunity to 85 look at an emerging Canadian icon with a promising future. Investment Theses 70 (1) Authentic identity brand with a storied past is underpinned by technical product excellence, creating a formidable barrier to entry. 55 Canada Goose parkas are becoming a worldwide status symbol among 01-Feb-19 01-Aug-19 01-Feb-20 luxury consumers. GOOS S&P/TSX Disc. Index (2) The company maintains a seemingly long runway, drawing on a channel shift, geographic shift, and category shift to drive margin Consumers expansion and top-line growth over the next decade. Reid Kilburn The Consumers team believes Canada Goose is one of only a few names [email protected] in our Canadian universe with a credible upside and defensive moat. The current selloff, driven largely by short-term fears, has created an attractive Bronwyn Ferris opportunity to add another holding to our Canadian portfolio. We value [email protected] GOOS at $66.56, a 68% premium to the current price. James Boulter [email protected] The information in this document is for EDUCATIONAL and NON-COMMERCIAL use only and is not intended to Anchal Thind constitute specific legal, accounting, financial or tax advice for any individual. In no event will QUIC, its members or directors, or Queen’s University be liable to you or anyone else for any loss or damages whatsoever (including [email protected] direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, exemplary or punitive damages) resulting from the use of this document, or reliance on the information or content found within this document. The information may not be reproduced or republished in any part without the prior written consent of QUIC and Queen’s University. Matt Kampe QUIC is not in the business of advising or holding themselves out as being in the business of advising. Many [email protected] factors may affect the applicability of any statement or comment that appear in our documents to an individual's particular circumstances. © Queen’s University 2019 February 3, 2020 A Story of Migration Table of Contents Company Overview 3 Discussion of Luxury & Outerwear Markets 5 Thesis I: Authentic Brand Driving Economic Moat 6 Thesis II: Compelling Growth Runway 8 Commentary on Recent Selloff 11 Discussion of Risks 12 Valuation 14 References 16 2 February 3, 2020 A Story of Migration Company Overview Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (TSX: GOOS) is a luxury accessories, and lightweight coats alongside the outwear and apparel manufacturer, with a retail flagship parkas in their brand portfolio. This helps footprint in 12 countries across the globe. The firm smooth out the seasonal nature of selling parkas by designs, manufactures, and sells premium winter coats, extending the climates in which Goose apparel can be going public in 2017 after a period of ownership under worn. Bain Capital. Canada Goose's reputation for Made-in-Canada GOOS distributes via traditional wholesale partners quality and the legendary warmth of their product has and direct-to-consumer channels. The DTC channels, commanded a price premium while propelling the via their own brick-and-mortar stores and an online e- brand to a global fashion icon. The company employs commerce platform, are a relatively recent initiative to over 3,500 people in Canada, with factories and textile improve margins and gain greater control over the craftsmanship centers in 3 provinces. Today, GOOS is brand. Historically, the company has generated most on a steep upward trajectory - revenue has grown at a of their revenue through wholesale distribution to 41% CAGR since 2017, reaching $830M in in the last stores such as Harry Rosen and Nordstrom. However, fiscal year while generating a ~60% gross margin. The the vast majority of recent growth has been derived company derives the majority of revenue from North from strong performance in DTC channels. America, though other international sales already comprise 1/3 of revenue and are quickly growing as In addition, the company has recently implemented a the focus shifts from North America to European and brand-extension strategy to include knitwear, Asian markets. Exhibit I Exhibit II Revenue by Channel (C$M) Revenue by Geography (C$M) $1,000 $1,000 $750 $750 286 431 $500 $500 178 255 251 115 117 184 $250 33 $250 92 399 132 335 86 103 293 258 289 229 210 57 155 76 95 $0 $0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Wholesale DTC Canada USA EU & Asia Source(s): Company Filings Source(s): Company Filings 3 February 3, 2020 A Story of Migration History of the Canada Goose Brand The firm was founded 1957 under the name Metro was facing an existential threat – orders were drying Sportswear, where it began supplying down-filled up as competitors began moving manufacturing parkas for Canadian Rangers, police departments, overseas to cut costs. Dani's advisors, as well as environmental scientists, and other outdoor branches conventional business strategy, suggested the only of the Canadian government. At the time, the way to survive was to follow suit and continue company was a small industrial manufacturer with only competing on price. However, Dani took the road less a handful of employees, but quickly created a cult-like travelled by maintaining the Canadian manufacturing following for extreme warmth. However, they had yet base and focusing on the brand's highly-marketable to reach mass appeal, with most revenue generated by storyline, betting in the process that the company making outerwear under private-label commissions. could create a "Made in Canada" luxury brand. In 1985, the company had expanded to 50 employees With savvy marketing and a bit of good luck, the still- and was beginning to sell jacket's to consumers (rather small company was able to get their parkas on highly- than government agencies & other private labels) visible aspirational groups without glossy ad under their own "Snow Goose" brand. By 1990, the campaigns. The Goose coat was worn by movie stars in company had expanded internationally to the outdoor shoots, athletes, musicians, arctic Scandinavian countries. At that time, future CEO Dani expeditioners, and security guards at prestigious big- Reiss was working in the international sales city nightclubs. This shift, driven by product quality in department for his father David, who was the current lieu of placement fees, allowed the brand to gain CEO. mainstream recognition and become a coveted status symbol for consumers in cold climates. As a result, During his encounters with European retailers, Dani since 2015 Canada Goose has begun shifting away was struck by the personal attachment the parka from their wholesale strategy to focus on retail by owners had to their ultra-warm coats, as well as how opening their own locations and building out their the European customers came to associate the parkas online e-commerce platform. with idealized images of Canadian wilderness. He describes how "[people] had an emotional response to the "Made in Canada" story - the experience of Exhibit III owning one of these jackets was like trying on a piece of Canada". Canada Goose parkas on display in New York Aiming to capitalize on this authentic brand foundation, Dani persuaded his father to change the consumer brand from Snow Goose to Canada Goose in the early 2000s. Shortly after, Dani took over as CEO while his father focused on manufacturing and operations. This moment was the company's key inflection point to move from a niche specialty product into an iconic national brand. However, the road to stardom was far from certain. Several years after the name change, Canada Goose Source(s): Company Filings 4 February 3, 2020 A Story of Migration The Global Luxury Market & High-End Outerwear Global Luxury Goods Industry The Outwear Market The luxury goods and services industry is valued at The outerwear market is crowded, particularly in the approximately C$1.7T and encompasses a variety of high-end segment. Many established outdoor brands subsectors, including personal goods, consumables, such as the North Face, Patagonia, and Marmot beauty, and experiential luxury. Personal luxury goods, already manufacture high-quality jackets and have a which include durables such as watches, cars, and strong, loyal customer base. Furthermore, there exists parkas, is one of the fastest growing segments both global and niche luxury brands such as Moncler worldwide. BCG estimated that the personal luxury and Mackage which compete for customers in the goods segment has grown at 5% annually, is currently ultra-high end of the outerwear market. valued at C$485B, and is expected go grow between 3% and 6% annually in the coming decade. However, Canada Goose is differentiated among the high-end players as a truly functional brand with a Key growth levers for the personal luxury goods credible outdoor heritage.
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