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EQUITY RESEARCH MORNING RESEARCH SUMMARY June 9, 2021

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EQUITY RESEARCH MORNING RESEARCH SUMMARY June 9, 2021 EQUITY RESEARCH MORNING RESEARCH SUMMARY June 9, 2021 What's Inside Focus Items Estimates & PT Revisions Consumer Growth & eCommerce Brian Nagel, CFA ­ ICAD O iCAD Inc. OpCo Conference to Yield Insights at an Interesting Juncture for PATH P ­ UiPath, Inc. Consumer PDSB O ­ PDS Biotechnology NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Rick Schafer Updates NVDA Virtual Bus Tour Notes BIIB O Biogen Inc. Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) Rick Schafer HELE P Helen of Troy Limited MPWR Virtual Bus Tour Notes INTC P Intel Corp. MPWR O Monolithic Power Systems Marvell Technology Group (MRVL) Rick Schafer MRVL O Marvell Technology Group MRVL Virtual Bus Tour Notes NVDA O NVIDIA Corp. EXCHANGES, INFORMATION Owen Lau, CFA TMDX O TransMedics ANALYTICS & ASSET MANAGERS Estimates/Ratings/Price Target Updates Read-throughs from 2021 Oppenheimer Digital Assets Day Annual Estimates TransMedics (TMDX) Suraj Kalia, CFA Current FY Next FY Ratings Price Targets PROTECT Liver Data Company Ticker Prev Curr Prev Curr Prev Curr Prev Curr PDS Biotechnology (PDSB) Leland Gershell, MD, Ph.D. ASCO Data Flesh Out Compelling Efficacy; PT to $25 PDS PDSB (0.78) (0.78) (0.93) (0.93) O O $12.00 $25.00 Biotechnology Other Headlines UiPath, Inc. PATH (0.15) (0.09) (0.12) (0.10) P P NA NA iCAD Inc. ICAD (0.33) (0.30) -- (0.22) O O $28.00 $28.00 Technical Analysis Ari Wald, CFA, CMT Color for Fundamental Focus Calls: GRWG, NVDA, FOCS Technical Analysis Ari Wald, CFA, CMT European Bounce Consistent with Global Bull Biogen Inc. (BIIB) Jay Olson, CFA Launch Plans Debunk Misleading Aduhelm Myths iCAD Inc. (ICAD) Francois Brisebois ICAD Continues to Execute with Another ProFound AI Deal Intel Corp. (INTC) Rick Schafer INTC Virtual Bus Tour Notes UiPath, Inc. (PATH) Brian Schwartz Hyper Automation Company Shows Hyper Growth and Margin Improvements in Its F1Q For analyst certification and important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix. Oppenheimer & Co Inc. 85 Broad Street, New York, NY 10004 Tel: 212-667-7990 Morning Summary - June 9, 2021 TECHNOLOGY Martin Yang, CFA The Daily Meta TECHNOLOGY Rick Schafer Daily Chip Clips Helen of Troy Limited (HELE) Rupesh Parikh, CFA A Mixed Outcome for HELE with the Personal Care Asset Sale 2 Morning Summary -June 9, 2021 Snap Commentaries - Equities Updates CONSUMER Brian Nagel, CFA 212-667-8381 OpCo Conference to Yield Insights at an Interesting Juncture for Consumer On Tues. and Wed., Jun. 15–16, we are hosting our 21st Annual Oppenheimer & Co. Consumer Growth & eCommerce Conference, virtually. Attending this year’s event includes a number of leading, as well as several up-and-coming operators from our expansive Consumer Growth & eCommerce coverage. As we have discussed in our research often, in our view, discretionary retail is now embarking upon a very interesting and potentially volatile period of transition, as pandemic headwinds abate, likely spurring a normalization in spending, and consumers back away at least somewhat from stay-at-home categories and resume pre-COVID-19 activities. We plan to process carefully any incremental learnings from our interactions with senior leadership teams regarding current impressions of the consumer backdrop and how companies are preparing to adapt to any further shifts in spending as well as other topical issues, including hiring amid a tight labor market, persistent inflation, and needs of companies to continue to digitize their business models in order to remain efficient and relevant for shoppers. Top picks into our conference include: AZO, LOVE, GRWG, and PRPL, as well as LOW, as a relative play with large caps and home improvement retail. Rick Schafer TECHNOLOGY 720-554-1119 NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA - $703.13) Semiconductors & Components Rating Market Cap Price Target Earnings Type 2021A 2022E 2023E O $438,050.0M $700.00 EPS 10.01 16.35 18.80 NVDA Virtual Bus Tour Notes On Tuesday, we hosted Nvidia VP of IR Simona Jankowski and Director of IR Stewart Stecker on our 19th Annual Bus Tour, Virtual Edition. Management remains bullish on the company’s growing artificial intelligence (AI) and gaming opportunities. Supply constraints felt most in gaming as demand continues to outpace supply. Constraints impacting DC less as hyperscalers typically plan/order further ahead. DC demand is expected to accelerate into 2Q/2H, as hyperscale spending rebounds and increasingly favors Al neural network workloads/services. AI accelerator attach remains ~5% on public cloud server installed base but, based on FLOPS, has already exceeded the compute capacity of unaccelerated CPU. A100 remains key growth driver supporting training/inference. Nvidia has ~99% share of AI training, and has made meaningful headway in AI inference. DPU allows roughly 1/3 of compute cycles to be offloaded from the CPU, and adoption is ramping quickly. NVDA deepened its DPU moat by introducing DOCA (DC on Chip) software platform, similar to what CUDA is to GPU. Grace CPU for compute intense supercompute/HPC/hyperscale applications is due early’23. First Grace wins are with Swiss Supercomputing Center and US DoE National Laboratory. Grace completes NVDA's three-pronged approach to DC processor hardware (CPU/GPU/ DPU). Management addressed crypto with two approaches: 1) De-hash GeForce GPU mining by half; and 2) introduction of CMP. As ethereum moves to proof-of-stake, mining demand could drop materially by EOY. NVDA dominates high-performance PC gaming where content/performance/console are driving outsized demand. New 3080Ti are in high demand. GeForce NOW allows NVDA to expand installed base of 200M gamers by appealing to the >1B casual gamers worldwide. NVDA has a $8B 3 Morning Summary -June 9, 2021 design pipeline in Autos, expected to inflect in CY24/CY25 led by Mercedes. ARM acquisition remains on track to close first half CY22. Rick Schafer TECHNOLOGY 720-554-1119 Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR - $347.03) Semiconductors & Components Rating Market Cap Price Target Earnings Type 2020A 2021E 2022E O $15,878.0M $420.00 EPS 5.04 6.50 7.75 MPWR Virtual Bus Tour Notes On Tuesday, we hosted Monolithic Power CFO Bernie Blegen and Director of Finance Mark Trivette on our 19th Annual Bus Tour. Demand remains strong across verticals/products with no signs of order slowdown. Management's early capacity investments (new 12" fab ramping now and 8" fab slated for this year) are allowing MPS to better capture demand (and share) with the company on track to outpace 2020's ~35% top-line growth. Management is prioritizing capacity to meet DC/auto deliveries. We see long-term growth led by DC/cloud, 5G RAN, and Auto. We see DC/Cloud growth led by QSMod, as MPS share/content increases to 30% (from 5%) and to $70 (from $50), respectively. We see MPS content exceeding $200 in 48V AI- accelerated servers. Management sees ~20% of servers supporting 48V by 2023/2024. We estimate 48V sales approaching ~ $50M this year. Improving hyperscale spend (2H21) and Sapphire Rapids (production volumes 1H22) give added legs to MPS' cloud story. We see 5G RAN as MPS' next major growth pillar (beginning '22), led by QSMod/BMS content of $100s/BTS. MPS drove almost 10% 5G growth in 1Q, despite Huawei loss (nearly 10% 2020 customer), as Tier-2 OEMs aided growth. We see Comms, led by 5G, as MPS' biggest upside driver. Within Auto, ADAS wins (ramping this year) support a >10x content jump to $60/ vehicle. Smart-lighting and braking solutions ramp next year. BMS is more a 2023/2024 opportunity, but potentially doubles MPS auto content. We estimate ~70% auto growth this year, well ahead of management's 30–40% LT target and auto SAAR (up 14%). Management targets 75–125bps of annual operating margin expansion, including 40–50bps of annual GM expansion. We see MPS as the rare semiconductor company capable of delivering structural "20%-plus" annual growth, with GM >60%, as secular greenfield growth drivers continue to multiply and mix improves. We remain long-term buyers. Rick Schafer TECHNOLOGY 720-554-1119 Marvell Technology Group (MRVL - $48.70) Semiconductors & Components Rating Market Cap Price Target Earnings Type 2021A 2022E 2023E O $39,899.0M $60.00 EPS 0.92 1.47 1.99 MRVL Virtual Bus Tour Notes We met with MRVL CFO Jean Hu and VP of IR Ashish Saran Tuesday on our 19th Annual Bus Tour. Tone of the meeting was bullish as management highlighted structural growth opportunities in 5G RAN, Cloud, and Auto, along with continued rebound in storage. Supply remains tight with networking suffering most. We estimate backlog coverage ~90% for this year. Management doesn’t expect to make a material dent in backlog before EOY as channel inventories are lean and orders remain broadly robust. Supply shortages aren’t expected to abate until next year. Despite constraints, standalone networking (60%) is expected up 20% Y/Y in F2Q (ex. IPHI) led by Cloud and 5G RAN. Cloud continues to see robust demand for DPU. MRVL’s DC/cloud portfolio is bolstered by IPHI’s PAM4 DSP and 200G/400G/800G high-speed interconnects. Management secured multiple 5nm hyperscale cloud design wins with revenues expected to peak in CY24/CY25, significantly above CY20 cloud revenues of ~$400M. In 5G, Samsung and Nokia are poised to ramp in 2H as US/Europe BTS deployments accelerate. We 4 Morning Summary -June 9, 2021 expect China 5G to decline in F2Q before re-accelerating in 2H. Management leaves China 5G rebound as upside and expects the region to contribute <20% to MRVL’s 5G sales for the foreseeable. We see MRVL playing a lead role as a one-stop-shop silicon provider for ORAN and VRAN. We see MRVL ORAN content mirroring content at No. 1 5G RAN customer Samsung (~ $3400/BTS).
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