How lumpy is random? Pink and White Terraces Christmas – the annual ordeal Alternative medicine ‘journal’ Water treatment woo CUSP podcast turns four
number 110 – summer 2014 content editorial
How lumpy is random? 3 The Pink and White Terraces: Forwards and still lost? 7 Newsfront 10 backwards Christmas: the annual ordeal 12 ND so another year begins, and as I write this on New Year’s A journal, but not as Day 2014 there is the opportunity, as with every new year, to we know it 15 A reflect on past years and consider the prospects for the future. 2014 Anti-ageing water from will no doubt be an especially busy year for recollections and com- your tap 16 memorations, marking as it does the centenary of the start of World On the CUSP 18 War I. Few could have had any idea, on that New Year’s Day of a century ago, of what the next few years would bring. Forum 20
Book Review: It’s always fun at this time to look back at what predictions the Salt Sugar Fat 21 psychics have made for the previous year. RelativelyInteresting. com has a good summary of their efforts for 2013. Among the In which we encounter a very more entertaining were that Prince William and Kate would have a strange idea about water 22 daughter “whom many will believe is the reincarnation of Princess Diana”, experimental monkeys would escape from a lab and cause a pandemic, and meditation would be proved to be the gateway to contact loved ones on the other side. As the Danish proverb says, ISSN - 1172-062X predictions are difficult, especially about the future.
Contributions Looking a bit further back, 10 years ago (2 January 2004) I took part in a successful hunt for the supposedly extinct New Zealand Contributions are welcome and should be sent to: storm petrel, not reported for more than a century but reliably sighted a couple of months previously less than 100 km from downtown David Riddell Auckland – a truly unexpected development. In the intervening 122 Woodlands Rd decade live birds have been captured, their DNA analysed, and just RD1 Hamilton Email: [email protected] last year their breeding grounds were discovered on Little Barrier Island. Deadline for next issue: March 10 2014 The Summer 2004 NZ Skeptic editorial (by Annette Taylor, also on the trip) commented that the storm petrel’s story was very different Letters for the Forum may be edited from those of other elusive creatures such as moa, lake monsters, as space requires - up to 250 words is preferred. Please indicate the or Bigfoot – or, for that matter, the supposed ‘panthers’ in the South publication and date of all clippings Island. The NZ Herald website had another article about this mystery for the Newsfront. beast on 22 October 2013, photographed walking across the ice of Lake Clearwater in August. The photo looks quite dramatic, with Material supplied by email or CD is appreciated. a distant feline silhouette sharply defined against the icy landscape and no obvious visual cues to help assess size, but when the animal Permission is given to other non- is magnified and examined in isolation it’s clearly a feral domestic profit skeptical organisations to cat. reprint material from this publication provided the author and NZ Skeptic are acknowledged.
Opinions expressed in the New Zealand Skeptic are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the views of It’s a fairly safe prediction that 2014 will see more sightings of NZ Skeptics (Inc.) or its officers. South Island panthers, but no actual specimens. What else the year may hold is anyone’s guess. number 110 – summer 2014 main feature How Lumpy is Random? and other burning questions in quantitative reasoning
David Bulger
Most people are very bad at distinguishing genuine patterns from random noise, but fortunately there are statistical methods that can help. This article is adapted from a talk at the NZ Skeptics Conference, in Wellington, 7 September 2013.
TATISTICS is one of those the whole theory is absurd if we we read a number of anecdotes Sthings, like health, politics and don’t appreciate the Earth’s im- about vaccinated children de- home maintenance, that everyone mense age and size (especially veloping autism, or see a string should know a little about. It when compared to the speed of of record-breaking storms in is important in the life of an in- molecular biochemical processes the news, or see a cloud formed modern citizen bearing a striking resem- and a major part of blance to (Renaissance scientific literacy. painters’ depictions of) Jesus. Lastly, a qualita- A narrow definition tive overview of statis- of numeracy implies tics tells us what kinds proficiency at special- of questions statistics ised calculations; a can and cannot answer, broader notion of it and how statistical ar- encompasses intuition guments can be used to about quantity and inform or mislead. significance, and a general understanding The online version of of how statistics works this article includes some and what statistical interactive content to claims mean. These augment the exposition. concepts are essential Please consider access- for a critical engage- ing it on the NZ Skeptics ment with journalism James Kerr, left, introduces David Bulger at the 2013 NZ website (www.skeptics. and public discussion. Skeptics Conference. org.nz) in an HTML5- enabled browser. For instance, some sense of the scale of very large and the size of the relevant mol- Pareidolia and small numbers is required ecules and cells). Intuition for to evaluate the plausibility of significance helps us draw the We don’t have fangs, exoskel- abiogenesis and the evolution of line between mere coincidence etons, camouflage or venom; diverse species by natural selection; and meaningful patterns when humans rely on intelligence to
page statistics survive. A big part of intelli- Hypothesis testing producing observations, we can gence is pattern recognition, and use it to produce a large sample Hypothesis testing is one of we’re very good at it. Maybe too of points on the graph; this is the central methods of statistics. good. The human brain does not shown in Figure 1a as a cloud of Loosely, it is used to quantify the take an ‘innocent until proven grey dots representing hypotheti- amazingness of a coincidence. guilty’ approach to looking for cal observations. When a pattern is perceived, patterns; we imagine trends and hypothesis testing can be used connections on the slightest Now suppose we make an to distinguish between pareidolia whiff of evidence. This kind of actual observation, and plot and real systematic trends. over-interpretation of random it in black, superimposed on data is called pareidolia. the cloud of hypotheti- The human brain does not take cal observations. If it Sometimes we know falls comfortably in the the perceived patterns an ‘innocent until proven guilty’ ap- middle of the cloud (eg, are imaginary, and they proach to looking for patterns; we Point A), then it accords can even be useful. For imagine trends and connections on perfectly with the null example, grouping the the slightest whiff of evidence. hypothesis: the grey dots stars into constellations and the observed point sketching out fanciful im- may have the same dis- The world is already awash ages aids in learning the arrange- tribution. On the other hand, with quantitative, nitty-gritty, ment of the night sky – whether if it falls well outside the cloud formulaic descriptions of the or not we believe that Poseidon (Point C), then it is not the kind mechanics of hypothesis testing, placed Cassiopeia in the sky as a of point produced by the hypoth- and I’m not going to add to them punishment. But when we don’t esis; we have strong evidence (not here, anyway). Instead, know a priori whether perceived against the hypothesis. let’s focus on the conceptual patterns are systematic, intuition framework. is a poor guide. One of the main But where do we draw the line? If the observed point falls aims of statistics is to provide Hypothesis testing is all about just on the outskirts of the grey objective quantitative measures measuring the consistency be- cloud (Point B), it can be difficult to determine whether apparent tween observed data and some to judge how consistent it is with patterns are too strong to appear hypothesis (called the null hy- the hypothesis. Mathematics by chance. pothesis) about where the data (or, often nowadays, computer came from. This is done by Part of the difficulty with simulation) can be used to cal- gauging how extreme the data intuition is that truly independ- culate how extreme the observed would be, if the null hypothesis ent random data tends to cluster point is with respect to the grey were true. ‘How extreme’ re- more than people expect. (Ran- distribution. Conventionally, if ally means ‘How improbable dom is lumpy!) For instance, the observed point falls in the would this data be if the null the chance of any two people outer five percent of the grey hypothesis were true?’ or more sharing a birthday is about 1/365, cloud, the null hypothesis is accurately ‘How likely would we or 0.27 percent. However, this rejected. (This threshold, five be to see something as extreme seemingly rather unlikely event percent, is called the significance as – or more extreme than – the probably will happen (with a of the test. It describes how observed data, under the null 50.73 percent chance) in some much evidence against our null hypothesis?’ pair, given a group of only 23 hypothesis we will need to see people – but it will still seem like Suppose we make an observa- to persuade ourselves to reject a surprising coincidence. tion which produces two num- it.) Figure 1b shows a decision bers. We can use these numbers boundary separating the most To test your own intuition for as horizontal and vertical coordi- extreme five percent of the null the amount of clustering appear- nates to plot a point on a graph. distribution from the most typi- ing in independent data, try the If we have a null hypothesis, that cal 95 percent. interactive random dots image in is, a theorised mechanism for the online version. number 110 – summer 2014 statistics
a b
Figure 1. In (a), the grey cloud represents the null distribution, a theory about the distribution the observed data should follow. If we observe A, the theory seems reasonable. If we observe C, the theory seems unreasonable. But it is less obvious whether an observation of B significantly contradicts the theory. In (b), we separate the most typical 95% of the null distribution from its most extreme 5%; since B sits within the most typical 95%, we conclude that it agrees with the theory.
This conceptual framework rejecting the null hypothesis, so which other variables influence has some implications. Firstly, that typically one in 20 studies each subject’s optimal intake. the null hypothesis needs to be will find a non-existent relation- However, it requires more data a specific, falsifiable hypothesis, ship. to study the combined effect of and therefore usually states that Nutrient X and daily exercise, some variable, medical interven- Let’s consider the danger of say, than the effect of Nutri- tion, etc has no effect on some searching for the wrong kind of ent X alone, and data sets are outcome. Also, there is no such relationship in more detail. The never as large as we might like. thing as evidence for the null hy- ‘answer’ a hypothesis test gives Estimating only the average pothesis, only evidence against can only be as sophisticated as optimal intake of Nutrient X is it; the question is whether there the question – and generally, a compromise, and suits almost is enough evidence. If the null more sophisticated questions no one perfectly. If the RDA has hypothesis is nearly but not quite require more data to answer. For been 250 mg/d, and a new study true, eg, if there is a small but instance, if a study investigates indicates that it should be raised systematic relationship between the health effects of a certain to 300 mg/d, that may increase two variables, then a hypothesis food, drug or exercise, usually average health, but it will at least test based on a small sample will it only considers the effect on an slightly decrease the health of be unlikely to find the relation- average subject. almost half the population! See ship, whereas a large enough Consider clinical experiments the online version of this article sample will find it. So if a study aimed at determining the Recom- to try this yourself. retains the null hypothesis, it mended Daily Allowance (RDA) Statistics in journalism means one of three things: too of ‘Nutrient X’. Presumably, little data was used, or there each person actually has a dif- In preparing to present this is no relationship, or there is a ferent optimal intake of Nutrient material at the NZ Skeptics con- relationship but we tested for X, so if we give everyone the ference in Wellington last year, the wrong kind of relationship. same dosage, it will be a little I wanted to illustrate statistics’ And even if there is no relation- too much for some people, and place in daily life by finding a ship, the significance level (also not quite enough for others. newspaper piece reporting on a known as the false positive rate) With a large enough sample, we scientific study, tracing it back gives the probability of wrongly might even be able to determine to the original journal article,
page statistics
to get too little Vitamin C other than via kiwifruit. It turns out that two kiwifruit per day is healthier than half a kiwifruit per day – when kiwifruit is given a monopoly over your Vitamin C intake. The newspaper piece mentions nothing about the exclusions or restricted diet. The journal article’s conclusion is much fairer: “Overall, our kiwifruit and looking a high-Vitamin C supplementation study shows at the statistical methods food” by Carr et al, had that a positive effect on mood involved and how they were recently appeared in the Journal and vigour can be measured in an presented in the newspaper. of Nutritional Science, and natu- otherwise well population with The very first science piece I rally goes into a lot more detail suboptimal intakes of fruit and found was www.stuff.co.nz/sci- about the study. It explains that vegetables and Vitamin C.” ence/9088473/Kiwifruits-surpris- the sample comprised 36 male ing-health-benefits, reporting It is tempting to imagine that university students, selected on a study conducted at Otago news originating from the ob- after some screening. Smokers University on kiwifruit’s effect jective disciplines of science were excluded, as were exces- on health. and statistics can be trusted. sive drinkers, diabetics and Unfortunately, it is easy for the Credulously reading the anyone with a bleeding disor- interpretation of such work to newspaper piece, we learn that der or kiwifruit allergy or on be distorted, due to conscious or “good things can happen when prescription medication; there unconscious bias, sloppiness, or normally fruit-and-vegetable- may be good reasons for these simply word count pressure. Of- averse university students eat exclusions, though (particularly ten, the distortions in journalism two kiwifruit a day.” The piece for young adult males) is the and other public discussion can indicates that, during the six- sample still representative of the only be guessed at, but a general week study, the two halves of population? awareness of the common sorts the sample group ate either two However, the remaining ex- of misrepresentations, at least, kiwifruit, or half a kiwifruit, per clusions are where, for me, the is helpful. day. The two-kiwifruit group story started to unravel. The showed significantly less fatigue The peculiar geometry of study also excluded anyone with and depression than the other multi-dimensional data high fruit and vegetable con- group. The piece also mentions sumption, anyone taking Vitamin that the study was partly funded Figure 1 depicts two-dimen- C supplements, and anyone with by Zespri International; this sional data: each observation pro- average or higher blood plasma shouldn’t necessarily prejudice duces two numbers, and by using concentration of Vitamin C. The us – nutritional research on these as coordinates, we can plot article’s study design section ex- kiwifruit seems an appropriate the observations in a two-dimen- plains that, during the six-week thing for Zespri to spend money sional graph. Using perspective, observation period and for five on – but obviously it raises the 3D glasses or solid models, we weeks prior, the subjects were possibility of biased or perfunc- can depict three-dimensional instructed to keep to a diet low in tory work. data in a similar way. Because Vitamin C. That is, the research- we live in a universe with only The original journal article, ers deliberately narrowed the three spatial dimensions, we “Mood improvement in young experimental sample to subjects cannot use the same graphical adult males following supple- who already had low Vitamin C, methods for higher-dimensional mentation with gold kiwifruit, and ensured that they continued data, but of course many studies number 110 – summer 2014 statistics involve observations which each – with no self-deception. For above average implied wide- produce many more than three help visualising this, try the in- spread overconfidence – was values. High-dimensional data teractive driving ability graph in flawed, because it assumed di- has some counterintuitive geo- the online version. mension reduction to be trivial metrical properties. In fact, even and objective. two-dimensional data sometimes In fact, driving ability com- confounds our intuition. prises many more than two di- Statistics has been described mensions, strongly accentuating as ‘the language of science’, be- From time to time, one hears this effect. Almost any driver cause of its focus on testing for driving ability used as the classic will be above average in some disagreement between data and illustration of the cognitive bias qualities, and below average in theory. Some familiarity with known as illusory superiority, others. We can expect that driv- statistics, and numeracy in gen- people’s tendency to overesti- ers will tend to overvalue their eral, makes for a more informed mate their abilities and qualities strong points, and undervalue and engaged public. relative to others’. Over the their weak points, for two rea- David Bulger is a senior lecturer years, several studies in various sons: drivers will work harder to in the Statistics Department at countries have found that most learn habits they value, and ‘sour Sydney’s Macquarie University. people surveyed consider them- grapes’ (drivers will eventually As well as maths and computing, selves to be above-average driv- dismiss things they can’t mas- he has a misguided inclination for ers. It is then pointed out that it’s ter). Our initial idea – that most playing and writing music. not possible for most people to drivers’ considering themselves terraces be better than average – and this seems reasonable (if ‘average’ means ‘median’ anyway). The The Pink and White seemingly inescapable conclu- sion is that a lot of people over- estimate their driving ability. Terraces: still lost? That most people overestimate their driving ability should be Reports of the ‘rediscovery’ of the Pink and White Terraces may obvious to anyone who’s ever be premature, writes Bill Keir. been in a car – or near a road. (And kiwifruit probably are quite good for you!) But this N 2 February 2011 a post on updates with higher resolution is not implied by the survey re- Othe blog of GNS Science’s data. The project leader, Dr Cor- sults, because what constitutes outreach educator Julian Thom- nel de Ronde, promoted the finds ‘driving ability’ is subjective son announced: with public lectures, television and multi-dimensional. Many “Pink Terraces found! Yes – the interviews, and YouTube video qualities are involved in driving unbelievable news is that in spite presentations. In one video he ability. To keep things simple, of being located at the centre stated categorically, “There is suppose that driving ability en- of New Zealand’s most violent no doubt about it … [the Pink compasses just ‘skill’ and ‘cau- eruption in historic times, shaken Terraces] were not modified by tion’, and that everyone agrees by volcanic earthquakes, covered the eruption.”2 how to measure skill and caution, by many metres of mud and ash, but that opinions vary on the and then flooded underneath a These conclusions came from relative importance of skill and large lake, a large area of New imagery obtained during the Lake caution. Probably most drivers Zealand’s iconic Pink Terraces Rotomahana Survey Project us- of Rotomahana has been redis- will put more effort into devel- ing sophisticated underwater covered!”1 oping the qualities they rate as sonar instruments, GPS systems and cameras capable of yield- more important, whether skill Newspapers and television ing very accurate location data or caution. So most drivers will gave extensive coverage, and and images of physical features be, subjectively, above average blogs posted in March 2012 gave under water. The project’s main
page terraces aim was to improve knowledge Stream, flowed into Lake Taraw- published a book on the eruption of the local geothermal fields. era. Ferdinand von Hochstetter’s in 1988, estimated this rise as no Any evidence of the Pink and 1859 map of the area labelled more than three metres.4 A visual White Terraces would be coinci- this stream with the words, “Dis- comparison of two well-known dental spinoff, but of great public embogues into Lake Tarawera.”3 photos of Lake Tarawera’s Wai- interest. Therefore, before the eruption, roa inlet and surrounding penin- Lake Rotomahana must have sulas – one taken before the erup- The published images appear been at least one metre higher tion by George D Valentine, the to show scallop-shaped stepped than Lake Tarawera to give suffi- other taken after the eruption by features of solid material similar cient fall for the water to flow the Charles Spencer – confirms that to the famous silica terraces, 1.5 km between the two lakes. Keam’s estimate is about right.5 which were either buried or Lake Tarawera has maintained destroyed during the eruption We also know that, before the about this level until today, with of the Tarawera-Rotomahana eruption, the Pink and White Ter- one dramatic fall of two or three rift on 10 June 1886. However, races descended to the shore lev- metres in 1904 when the outlet these terrace-like objects were el of Lake Rotomahana – many blockage burst, causing a flash discovered at depths of 50-60 m pre-eruption photos verify this. flood that affected communities in the lake. A simple calculation The precise vertical height of the downstream. of the relative lake levels dem- terraces above the lake was never onstrates that the objects found recorded prior to the eruption. There are no accurate data for by the GNS team are almost The most commonly quoted ap- the true elevations of the lakes certainly not in-situ remains of proximate figure for the White before the eruption, but today’s the terraces – they are too deep Terraces is 30 m. The White mean elevations are found on in the lake. Terraces were probably slightly the latest topographical maps. higher than the Pink Terraces. My calculation starts with these I based my calculation on known values. the well-recorded fact that be- We also know that outlet fore the eruption the outlet of blockage and other factors caused Today, Lake Tarawera is 299 Lake Rotomahana, the Kaiwaka Lake Tarawera to rise after the m above mean sea level (asl), eruption. Ronald F Keam, who and Lake Rotomahana is 337 m asl. Therefore, today, Lake Rotomahana is about 38 metres by Nick Kim above Lake Tarawera. Taking today’s level of Lake Tarawera to be three metres above its pre-eruption level gives a nominal pre-eruption height of 296 m asl for that lake. This demands at least 297 m above mean sea level for the pre-erup- tion height of Lake Rotomahana because its water flowed into Lake Tarawera. It follows from these facts, and one confident estimate, that, (a) Lake Rotomahana could not have risen more than 40 metres from its pre-eruption level to today’s level, (b) The base of the Terraces, if still in situ, could not be more than 40 m below the number 110 – summer 2014 terraces
The White Terraces of Lake Rotomahana, as painted by Charles Blomfield prior to the Tarawera eruption. surface of today’s Lake Rotoma- possibility that GNS scientists Efforts to determine the fate hana, and the top of the terraces have discovered in-situ remains of the Pink and White Terraces may be as little as 10 m below of the Terraces at a depth of 50- began immediately after the the surface if they are still in 60 m in Lake Rotomahana. eruption. At that time the site of situ. A shallower depth than this the original Lake Rotomahana would be yielded if the original So, what have the scientists was a huge explosion crater more height of Lake Rotomahana were found at these depths? There are than 100 m deep and more than higher above Lake Tarawera than several possibilities. They could a kilometre wide, with a small the one metre I have assumed. be lower sections of the Terraces hot lake at the bottom, and sur- A shallower depth would also that were below lake level prior rounded by walls of ejected result if the pre-eruption level to the eruption and never seen mud. It took about 10 years for of Lake Tarawera were higher by humans. They could be rem- this hole to fill with water to the than I have assumed. A varia- nants of other silica terraces that level of the lake we know today. tion of one or two metres in my formed before earlier eruptions Investigators had plenty of time calculation is possible from the in prehistoric times and were to find the Terraces if they were known small variations in mean buried in the lake long before in the slightest discernible in sea level and the seasonal levels humans arrived. They could the crater, and there were plenty of the lakes. be fragments of the Terraces of investigations. Scientists, displaced into the crater by the surveyors, photographers and In-situ Pink and White Ter- explosion. They could be other newspaper reporters were on site races at 60 m depth in today’s step-shaped objects exposed in assessing and recording within Lake Rotomahana would re- the crater by the explosion. Or a few days of the eruption. The quire the pre-eruption level of they could be something else landscape was dramatically Lake Tarawera to be about 20 m entirely. The evidence presented changed, but they knew roughly lower than it is today to enable by the scientist is not sufficient where to look for the Terraces. Rotomahana’s water to flow to settle this question. The Over ensuing months some dar- into it. Given the photographic published images are far from ing investigators ventured into evidence, this is not credible. convincing.6 They are open to a These calculations rule out the variety of interpretations. To Page 12
page newsfront Compiled by Annette Taylor Magnetic claims challenged
NLINE claims that mag- The board noted at the time the requisite standard of social Onetic wrist and ankle bands of the December 11 decision, responsibility”. have therapeutic benefits have the website was unchanged, but had to be removed following after being contacted by APNZ It also noted the DHB had “a a complaint to the Advertising the claims were removed. It now duty to provide information to Standards Authority (NZ Herald, says far infrared waves “generate the public”, and would be seen 24 December). heat”, and that “heat therapy can as an expert in the area due to be beneficial to those with arthri- its role. The complaint, brought by tis and stiff muscles and injuries Mrs McNair told the Times NZ Skeptics committee mem- to the deep tissue of the skin”. ber Mark Honeychurch, said she stood by her complaint and the Magnetic Magnets’ website that the complaints system was made unsubstantiated therapeu- flawed. tic claims and were likely to Something to flash the pearly whites about “By its own admission (al- mislead consumers. though the ASA is theoretically Magnetic Magnets is a New A complaint about a pro- an independent body) it cannot Zealand-owned company and fluoridation advertisement has rule against another Government sells exclusively online. Its web- been rejected by the Advertising authority if they are broadly con- site claimed the product “releas- Standards Authority (Waikato sidered to be ‘experts’ in the field es Far infrared wave, which can Times, 1 January). and the ASA has been publicly help relieve tension and improve warned to ‘tread carefully’ in this The advertisement showed a area,” she said. the blood circulation. Releases family holding a billboard that negative ions to purify blood, said “I vote for fluoride being The dismissal of the complaint activate cells and promotes the added to water.” It was placed was a good outcome for DHB, balance of the body’s PH.” in the Times by the Ministry said its communications director Mr Honeychurch said there of Health and Waikato District Mary Anne Gill. was no evidence provided to Health Board last September. It back up the claims, and an online also stated that fluoride “makes a search “seems to suggest that no huge difference in reducing tooth Tribunal clears iridologist decay, particularly for children”, reliable link has ever been found An iridologist has been par- between magnets and the kinds “is safe”, and “provides an af- fordable benefit to everyone.” tially cleared of the inappropriate of health improvements that are treatment of a cancer sufferer claimed”. Fluoride Free Hamilton co- after a tribunal ruled she had Magnetic Magnets provided ordinator Pat McNair laid a com- acted out of compassion for a information from websites, in- plaint with the authority claiming “manipulative” patient (Domin- cluding Wikipedia, and an email all three of the statements in the ion Post, 2 November). advertisement were false. from a customer backing up the Te Horo natural health prac- product’s effect. “The ad was designed to mis- titioner Ruth Nelson, 72, was The ASA complaints board lead the public prior to a refer- alleged to have failed to provide said the evidence provided was endum by way of propaganda,” proper care in her treatment of insufficient to support the claims she said in her objection. Yvonne Maine, who died from made. It found the advertisement The complaints board ruled skin cancer in 2010 (NZ Skeptic was likely to mislead consumers all three statements had been 109). and did not present scientific substantiated, none would de- A 20 cm lesion on Mrs Maine’s information in an accurate man- ceive or mislead consumers and head had eaten away skin and ner. the advertisement “had observed number 110 – summer 2014 newsfront bone to reveal her brain when Neon gets all-clear Meanwhile, the Government she finally sought mainstream is taking legal advice amid fears Eight-year-old Neon Roberts, medical treatment in July 2009. that the judgment could lead to whose New Zealand-born mother She had palliative surgery, but organisations branded as cults fought against cancer treatment died 10 months later. receiving tax breaks. In 2006 in Britain, has received an all- Michael Gove, now the Educa- clear by doctors (NZ Herald, 23 In a case brought by the Of- tion Secretary, used parliamen- December). fice of the Health and Disability tary privilege to call Scientology Commissioner, Nelson was de- Sally Roberts tried to prevent an “evil cult”. fending allegations her treatment the treatment for his brain tumour breached eight provisions in the and went on the run with the boy, Code of Health and Disability believing radiotherapy would Services Consumers’ Rights. Conference combats sorcery “fry his brain”. The British The Human Rights Review High Court ruled Neon should Participants at a conference Tribunal has upheld one breach be treated with conventional in Papua New Guinea on how – that Nelson “did not comply therapy and live with his father, to stop sorcery-related violence with her duty to provide services Ben, at his London home. had to reach for their handker- to Mrs Maine with reasonable chiefs throughout the three-day care and skill”. In December they told the event (Radio New Zealand, 4 Daily Mail he was in remission. They said the elderly iridolo- December). “We are delighted to be able to gist should have refused to treat share our family’s joy that all It’s estimated that 150 people Mrs Maine when first faced with Neon’s scans, including one last – mostly women – are killed the rotting, oozing lump on the week, have shown no sign of the every year in PNG after being Feilding grandmother’s head in cancer returning,” Mr Roberts accused of sorcery but under- February 2008. Her failure lay said. “We couldn’t have wished reporting and a lack of data mean in not refusing to have anything for a better Christmas present.” that number is probably wildly to do with Mrs Maine’s cyst from inaccurate. the time it was shown to her, and that failure was not the result Churches, civil society and of indifference, carelessness or Britain declares Scientology a NGO’s were well-represented negligence. religion at the conference which met in the Eastern Highlands provincial Scientology has been officially The tribunal did not accept the capital in December, but others recognised as a religion in Brit- version of events given by Mrs lamented the lack of government ain after the country’s highest Maine’s daughters, Carla Taylor presence. and Julieta Williams. In their court swept aside 158 years of testimonies they said Nelson law to rule that worshipping a The gathering generated ro- told their mother she could cure god is not essential to religion bust debate over sorcery’s real- the cyst, and warned her off go- (NZ Herald, 13 December). ity and underlined the urgency with which action on stopping ing to hospital. It may be that Five Supreme Court justices atrocities related to sorcery ac- Mrs Maine lied to her daughters redefined religion in law in order cusations must be taken – “but, to avoid them pursuing further to enable Scientologists to con- as yet, there’s no agreement on medical treatment, the report duct weddings. The judgment how that should be done,” Annell said. followed a five-year legal battle Husband reported. “What’s be- by Louisa Hodkin, a 25-year-old Carla Taylor said she was dis- come painfully clear is the scope Scientologist seeking the right appointed with the result. She of the problem with which PNG to get married at the Church of had hoped the inquiry would lead is grappling and how a one-size- Scientology chapel in central to the formation of a naturopathy fits-all response in a country of London. She and her fiancé body with binding codes and such cultural diversity is unlikely hailed the ruling as a victory for standards, to which registration to be successful.” should be compulsory. freedom of worship.
page 11 terraces
From Page 9 unbecoming of their profession, some unexplained anomalies in this and failed to do some basic GNS image and caption: The convex edges of the scalloped objects in the the crater to look for evidence preliminary research and simple of them. In July 1886 guide Al- image face south, but the original White arithmetic. Terraces faced west or northwest. fred Warbrick, accompanied by There was probably a small tongue of Auckland Evening Star reporter References and notes the White Terraces spreading some- 1. Julian’s blog: juliansrockandice- what more southerly, but certainly not Jim Philp, climbed down a rope. blog.blogspot.co.nz/2011/02/final.html anywhere near 180 m wide. (Refer Warbrick thought he identified 2. YouTube video by Cornel de to Hochstetter’s 1859 map and sev- a portion of the Pink Terraces Ronde: How We Found the Pink Ter- eral pre-eruption photos of the White races. Julian’s blog February 2011. Terraces available online that clearly under a series of mud banks, but 3. www.aucklandcitylibraries.com/ indicate the Terraces’ orientation in rela- there was nothing conclusive. DigitalLibrary/resourcepages/herit- tion to surrounding landscape features ageimagesonline.aspx (search: maps such as Mount Tarawera and the distant There was no doubt that the only advanced search: NZ Map 5694d, southern skyline.) Terraces had vanished. The de- 1859). Caution: Hochstetter’s map is 7. www.nzherald.co.nz/rotorua- more of a sketch map than an accurate daily-post/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_ bate was always about whether survey map. Compare Keam’s sketch id=1503435&objectid=11075825 they had been completely blown map (derived from photos) posted on to pieces, partly damaged, or just Julian’s blog 10 June 2011. Bill Keir is a freelance journal- 4. Keam, RF 1988: Tarawera: The ist and member of the Auckland buried in mud, and it was never volcanic eruption of 10 June 1886, page Astronomical Society. Cornel de resolved. The recent high-tech 400. Published by the author. Ronde’s response in the Rotorua 5. Keam 1988: ibid. pp. 31, 192. findings have not added much Daily Post (‘Fault found in Terraces 6. For example: img.scoop. to this debate, telling us little co.nz/stories/images/1106/ scepticism’) can be read at www. more than we learnt from the 26f24baacdbdb8cb98ab.jpeg Note nzherald.co.nz/rotorua-daily-post/ opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=150 first investigators, who had 3435&objectid=11075824 the advantage of not having to are you sure? search under water. Certainly the arithmetic of the lake levels is strong evidence that the GNS Christmas: the annual scientists are mistaken about what they have found. ordeal On 20 September 2012 The Daily Post in Rotorua published Matthew Willey finds it difficult to get into the spirit of the holiday an article by me presenting this season. case,7 followed by an invited response from Dr Cornel de Ronde the following day. Dr T ’ S o v e r Christmas partygoers set aside de Ronde was scornful of my I now. But few minutes to hear me out. arithmetical argument, insisting Christmas for that his high-tech data is superior me is an annual Think about what you might and conclusive that the Pink Ter- ordeal. I loathe need to do to opt out of Christ- races are unmodified at 50-60 m it. mas. Try to imagine that. If you deep in the lake. The Daily Post think that Christmas is a benign published my letter of defence on But even typing this admis- anniversary, think again. 2 October 2012. sion, I hear the intake of breath from you who are more toler- Back in my heady, optimistic The GNS blogs and YouTube ant of the festival than I am. I thirties (ah, youth!) I made the links are still on the websites anticipate your reply, having decision to cancel Christmas. in their original form, showing been at the receiving end of your I announced that I would not how easily popular fallacies can disapproval for years: scrooge, be celebrating Christmas, and become entrenched in the public killjoy, grumpy old curmudgeon. asked that cards, presents etc record – in this case, because But let me explain. Just for once should be expressed in donations scientists rushed to the mass I ask that, rather than reaching for to charity or not at all. Gifts media with hyperbole and haste these easy labels, you fun-loving and cards would certainly not number 110 – summer 2014 are you sure? be returned. My house the spine. Standing alone, would not be decorated. and saying I do not want No. I would not have a to be a part of this is akin Merry Christmas. I saw to King Canute’s take on too much to dislike in this the tides. I have hundreds seasonal indulgence and of years of history to undo would have nothing more and I am not sure I can do it to do with it. by refusing to send Christ- mas cards. Christmas is a “Just when I thought I relentless juggernaut, awe- was out ... they pull me some when seen from the back in,” says poor, tor- outside and terrifying to mented Michael Corleone stand in front of. Simply as he tries to leave the announcing that one is no mafia. Unlike me he is longer participating is just heir to a vast crime syndi- pissing into the wind. cate, but like me he finds that making a clean break, In Western European and becoming an honest societies such as New Zea- man are not easy things land, Christmas has been to accomplish. But he exquisitely constructed as didn’t try giving Christ- a viral memetic advertising mas the boot. In trying to campaign. It was memetic leave Christmas, you are before Richard Dawkins fighting several formida- Krampus, a demon who carries off naughty children came up with a word for it. ble organisations, not just in many European Christmas traditions. Why can’t The tradition of Christmas we have more of this sort of thing? one. To refute it you set is insidious, adapting to yourself up against Chris- an evergreen staff with their un- new cultures and taking on tianity, tradition, consumerism, vaccinated children. No. On this fresh expression where it lands. I Charles Dickens, and your mum. I would get some easy backing love Tim Minchin, of course, but This list is in order of formidabil- from the Puritans who would, anyone who has actually drunk ity; I leave it to you to decide in even though Christians, support white wine in the sun knows an which direction it runs. me in my quest to have the fes- hour or two later that they have tival excised from the calendar. dug themselves a deep hole. So let’s run through those There are plenty of Christians Tim’s family also sound quite adversaries and see why I have, who look at the dubious aspects nice, another reason to think he after years of campaigning, con- of Christmas and share my dis- is working from a fairly small vinced not one person to join me taste. I’m not sure how happy I data set. in this boycott. am about this, but I’ll take what backing I can. Rebecca Watson spoke to the Christ of course was not born Wellington Skeptics about the on Christmas Day. It’s com- More than the weight of reli- whole Christmas thing, and a pletely arbitrary by popular gion which (as side-lined Chris- good night was had by all. Her admission. January the 6th was tians plaintively point out) is but central thesis was that we can an equally unlikely contender a fraction of the event, tradition enjoy Christmas more as non- which has been largely dropped. is the killer. There is a window believers, because we don’t have It is well established that the furnishings showroom near guilt or the obligation to go to festival is a midwinter celebra- where I live, and in huge letters, church on the day in question. tion to which Christianity has white on black, a fundamental We can even drink white wine simply cut and pasted its own truth is declared: CUSTOM in the sun if we like. In fact, we deity. I’m not saying we should BLINDS (their ‘caps lock’). The had a moral obligation to lead get jiggy with the pagans and festival is lodged like shrapnel in the way with our nondevotional celebrate Yule and dance around
page 13 are you sure? enjoyment, and I certainly tried Riding it all, driving the psy- cards, despite determined pre- that for a while. But the elephant chology of relentless participa- announced nonreciprocity. And in the room is consumerism, and tion, is a creation that would if you are unfortunate enough to it fills me with horror that we do have its maker turning in the have children your fate is sealed. this to ourselves every year. grave. Criticise Christmas and Oh, I could inflict upon them the the pantomime character of fate of the single Jehovah’s Wit- ness at our secondary school, who attracted horrified and uncomprehending attention by announcing that there would be no Christmas for her. But that kind of scrutiny, and the cheery effort she made to hide her pain, is emotional baggage I have no stomach for. So despite all of my good reasons for not doing so, I lie to my children about a mythi- cal figure who presents to them goods made at the North Pole, with Grandma’s writing on the The US Money Supply, month on month. The erratic heartbeat is Christmas. label, and wake with them at 5.30 in the morning. I watch Every year, the consumption Ebenezer Scrooge is wheeled their little faces light up at toys of goods goes into overdrive. out. I’m trying to have an hon- from China that will be forgot- On a planet of limited resources, est discussion about the merits ten by lunchtime under a tree where normally rhetoric dictates of the festival, and in my face, that I helped them decorate and that we should consume less, like a fierce rebuttal sponsored which consumes futile power in recycle more, save rather than by K-Mart and McDonalds and the bright summer evenings. I spend, exist on less; suddenly the Sony and Apple … is Ebenezer will do my best to ignore their message is consume, my people, Scrooge. If you don’t go along excited squeals and the dozens consume. Rampant squandering with the tradition of Christmas, of photographs I take of them, of economic and manufactur- you are likened unto Scrooge. I assure you, are for the record ing resources go into producing Scrooge is the industrial-strength only. I will try not to eat too goods that are offered as gifts to strawman that makes us fear say- much at lunchtime, and later uncaring recipients. Children ing anything negative about the look forward to when I can put tear the wrappers from gift after festival. Were he alive today, the ghastly tinsel back in the box. gift whilst adults thank each Dickens would be richly reward- This year I had to give in a little, other for stuff that will go into ed as an advertising genius, for yield ground. But look at how opshops in the coming months. his services to industry. I can’t the odds are stacked. Perhaps Meanwhile the money supply think of a richer irony. next year, finally, people will crashes, personal debt rises, listen. Perhaps next year will suicides rates climb and, stuffed But the adversary that keeps be the year the tree stays in the with Christmas food and white removing the stake from be- attic. wine in the sun, more people of tween the ribs of Christmas, and Matthew Willey works in schools my age go into cardiac arrest. letting it live for another year as an adviser for children with The dust settles in January and is family. Even if you have a disabilities. He lives in Palmerston the world has less of everything parent who is patient enough North with his family, who toler- to go around, except for carbon to listen to these well-founded ate his enthusiasm for skepticism dioxide. arguments, they will not stop with a kindly forbearance. He is English, but losing the accent. sending you socks, books and number 110 – summer 2014 alternative medicine A journal, but not as we know it
Siouxsie Wiles takes a look at a new medical journal – available at all good supermarkets.
’M a scien- “Medical ‘science’ is killing to contradict another statement I tist. I know us.” later in the same article that that the word What follows are, in my opin- “our bodies contain everything journal has sev- ion, 100 pages of misinformation we need to heal ourselves from eral meanings, and hysteria. We have articles on every possible disease, but hectic but when I use it the dangers of vaccination (infer- lifestyles, poor diet, high levels I’m referring to tility and shaken baby syndrome) of stress, and our faulty medical a collection of scholarly works and claims that “controversial system have repressed our natu- that have been peer-reviewed. doctor” Andrew Wakefield has ral ability to heal”. So when I first laid eyes on The been proven right, that the MMR New Zealand Journal of Natu- Another author begins: “I do vaccine can cause autism. Umm, ral Medicine (NZJNM) you can not want to pretend that this is no. Andrew Wakefield has in forgive me for assuming that the an impartial investigation. In- fact been struck off by the UK inclusion of ‘journal’ in the title stead, I am now fully convinced General Medical Council, and was intended to convey the air that most diseases are indeed there is a huge body of evidence of a scholarly publication. That caused by the medical system”. that there is no link be- it was for sale ($9.90) at a New tween the MMR vac- World supermarket in Auckland cine and autism. We was my first clue to theNZJNM ’s also have an article on true nature. Vitamin C, a homeo- The NZJNM claims to feature path’s treatment of “100 pages of the most vitally ear infections, and important health information you some “Controversial may ever read”. The magazine Alternative Cancer was launched in May 2011 and Treatments” that is published quarterly by the Full we may not know Court Press Ltd, based out of a about. Like bicar- PO box in Pt Chevalier in Auck- bonate of soda. I land. It is edited by Katherine kid you not. Ap- Smith and Jonathan Eisen. If the parently cancer name Jonathan Eisen rings a bell, is caused by he is the editor of Uncensored yeast infections magazine, and is active on the and bicarbo- ‘chemtrails’ front.* To see where nate of soda is he stands on health, this is how the solution. Jonathan begins his editorial for A l t h o u g h issue 11 (November 2013 – Feb- this seems ruary 2014): *Or it may be because, like me, you are interested in the open access movement and know of Prof Jonathan Eisen who is an evolutionary biologist from the University of California, Davis who cofounded the Public Library of Science (PLOS).
page 15 alternative medicine water treatment
So writes Walter Last, a natural healing enthusiast, who I as- Anti-ageing water sume is the same person who has a website selling $30 books on how to overcome cancer, from your tap diabetes and asthma using self- healing, whatever that is.
Scattered amongst the articles Rob Julian are the adverts, for courses on “children massaging children” ($350 for a two-day course), for homeopathy and iridology, as well as products like paint and “Alkaline and hydrogen-rich” water is being touted as the latest hoodies that can shield you from cure-all. electromagnetic radiation and Genopathic® remedies that are “specifically formulated to target and change electromagnetic fre- quencies within the body’s blood and nervous system”. Sounds dangerous! HERE is a sort of health Which is intriguing. How can Much of the content of the shop in the Johnsonville water with extra hydrogen be al- magazine seems to come from T Mall on the outside of which is kaline? Hydrogen does not dis- well-known international online this handsome sign: solve readily in water so the extra purveyors of misinformation but hydrogen can only there is some New Zealand-spe- be in the form of hy- cific content. No doubt inspired drogen ions, (H+aq) by the recent referendum to re- which would lower instate fluoridation in Hamilton, the pH and make it there is an article on the dangers acidic. (It is possible of fluoride along with the ob- that the “extra hydro- ligatory accompanying photo of gen” would be in the a bag of sodium silicofluoride form of deuterium or with a big toxic biohazard sign. tritium, which would Frankly, I think the whole maga- increase the molar zine should have a big toxic sign, mass a bit, but that or at the very least a health warn- would make it radio- ing plastered over the cover. I active.) normally don’t make New Year’s resolutions, but for 2014 it’s go- But further, how ing to be to get the NZJNM either are they going to renamed or off the supermarket make it alkaline with- shelf. Who’s with me?! out adding something like sodium bicar- Dr Siouxsie Wiles is a research scientist with a background bonate which would in medical and environmental make it taste bitter? microbiology. She has made a career out of combining her twin It is unclear what passions of bioluminescence and the “anti-oxidant” microorganisms. properties are. Pre- sumably the word number 110 – summer 2014 water treatment is added because anti-oxidants com/watch?v=mR76bX4UASk And if they weren’t selling it are fashionable. Anti-oxidants And the very first thing they they wouldn’t be promoting it. entered the nutritional vocabu- do is “remove chemicals” – by lary in the 1990s and are said to filtration. Obviously they don’t It is depressing because every remove free radicals produced classify water as a chemical. The New Zealander has taken science by cell metabolism with oxygen. filtration also removes bacteria. at least up to Year 10 and most They are mainly vitamins (E and And it gets rid of chlorine with of them beyond that. One would C) but there is the suggestion that activated charcoal, which could have hoped that no one who magnesium salts can perform the be scientifically valid, if it really has been through the second- function. There is little evidence does so. And in any case, the ary school science curriculum that taking vitamin and mineral water is only chlorinated in order would be taken in by such a supplements do anything health- to kill off the bacteria which the promotion. wise at all. filtration system is meant to deal Yet people still believe in ho- with. The water is then “miner- meopathy, iridology, and Young The sign highlights that the alised” and made more alkaline water is “anti-ageing” and I Earth Creationism. They classify before passing through the “ion carbon dioxide as a pollutant, guess this is true. If one stops exchange resin” which “balances drinking sufficient water, the and think that carbon emissions calcium and magnesium levels” are the smoke coming off in- ageing process will accelerate (whatever that means) to give dramatically. But some do say dustrial chimneys and sooty car the water a softer more pleasant exhausts. that ageing is accelerated by free taste. There is no justification in radicals which brings us back to terms of adding magnesium salt On viewing the Youtube video the question of what are the anti- as an anti-oxidant. I noticed there are a whole host oxidant properties? of videos suggesting that alkaline The dialogue then descends What makes it truly miracu- water of pH 9.5 is best for health into what can only be described and can be purchased in Health lous is that somehow the water as gobbledegook about mineral molecules are stopped from Food Stores. And that you can springs where “activated hydro- make your own by adding lemon “clumping” which makes it gen” reacts with “activated oxy- easier to be absorbed in the gut. juice to warm water. Excuse gen” to produce harmless water me? Lemon juice makes water The only small problem with and somehow, when you drink this is that water is only water alkaline? Lemon juice has a pH this it “removes harmful free of 2. Yet presumably people because of the hydrogen bond- radicals from the body”. They ing between the molecules. If believe this pseudoscience. In don’t explain either what they most schools, Year 10 students you interfere with this, as can mean, or how it occurs. be done by adding ethanol, then will test the pH of a variety of the boiling point decreases – the Finally it is aerated and then substances, vinegar, saliva, tap alcohol molecules get between passed over a magnetic field. No water, soap, sodium bicarbonate the water molecules and interfere explanation is given as to why and so on. Lemon juice is always with the ‘clumping’. (This is this produces “healthy” water, acidic. only by a couple of degrees so other than to say this is what hap- But I guess as science teachers do not worry that your whisky is pens in nature with water being we can only keep on trying. going to boil if you add water.) affected by the Earth’s magnetic If the weak bonding between the field. Rob Julian is a high school chem- istry and physics teacher living in water molecules were removed What is really depressing is Wellington. He has tutored and altogether, the water would in- lectured science courses at uni- that people must be taken in by stantly vaporise and boil at room versity, been involved in designing temperature. Which would be a this fanciful nonsense masquer- science curricula, and is a former little disconcerting if one were ading as “a breakthrough in Sci- National President of the New Zea- land Science Teachers Association. trying to drink it. ence”. If people were not taken in and buying the product, then One can view their promo- Hexagon wouldn’t be selling it. tional video on www.youtube.
page 17 podcast On the CUSP
Steven Galbraith
Completely Unnecessary? Hardly. New Zealand’s own Completely Unnecessary Skeptical Podcast is celebrating its fourth birthday and has established a niche for itself in the country’s digital airwaves.
VERY month or two, usu- (particularly with microphones Zealand. The format of the E ally on a Sunday morning, and audio) took quite a while podcast is first to discuss any my daughter and I are ejected to get sorted out, but finally the listener feedback, comments or from our house for an hour or sound quality is now profession- corrections, then to have a dis- two so my wife can have some al. I probably shouldn’t mention cussion of new items. A regular peace and quiet. I’m sure this the times when large chunks of feature is “Siouxsie Rants about is not unusual. However, rather audio were not recorded ... the Ponsonby News”. This free than putting her feet up and magazine, made available to having a quiet cup of tea, she households in several central spends the time ranting into a Auckland suburbs, is over- microphone with a couple of flowing with crazy remedies, friends. Welcome to the world diets and other health fads, of skeptical podcasting! and it rarely fails to provide something new to be outraged The Completely Unneces- by. The podcast sometimes sary Skeptical Podcast (CUSP) features an interview with a started in January 2010 with celebrity skeptic, and ends Pilot Episode Zero. Since with a skeptical quotation and then there have been a fur- the word of the day. ther 32 episodes recorded and made available on the I thought it might be en- website thecusp.org.nz At the microphone: Craig Shearer. tertaining to have a chat with the cast about some aspects of The average podcast episode Over the years there have making a podcast. This interview gets downloaded around 1000 been various contributors, in- was conducted on Sunday 8 De- times, with 15817 downloads in cluding Chrissie Taylor and cember, 2013, after the recording 2013 up to the time of writing (11 Colin Frewin, but the three of episode 32. The interviewer December). The most popular most regular participants are was Steven Galbraith (SG). The episode of all time was number Nathan Grange, Craig Shearer podcasters were: Nathan Grange 2 on Destiny Church, which was and Siouxsie Wiles. (NG), Craig Shearer (CS) and downloaded 4053 times – we Siouxsie Wiles (SW). have no idea why. The podcasts cover a wide range of skeptical topics, with SG: Why do you do a podcast? It is hard to believe the podcast particular focus on those with has been running for four whole particular relevance to New NG: Why don’t we do it? years. The teething problems number 110 – summer 2014 podcast
CS: Because none of us have had I know you guys don’t think he’s NG: Yeah, probably has done. the guts to pull out. cool, but I do. We haven’t done many recently. But we have interviewed Re- NG: Because people are still CS: Did we interview Paul Dan- becca Watson, George Hrab, listening to us and still want us iels? Lawrence Krauss as I said, Paul to do it I guess. That’s the main Daniels, Vicki Hyde. Although reason. SW: He interviewed Paul Dan- iels. [Episode 6] anyone can interview Vicki SW: Mmmmmm . . . . Hyde ... NG: And it’s fun. CS: Not that we’ve really had any proof that anyone wants us to do it. NG: Well, we’ve had a few people write in. One person we’ve never heard of before emailed us today. CS: It is fun. SW: It’s fun. NG: It is fun while we are here and recording it. Then you go home and think “my God I’m never doing that again.” Siouxsie Wiles and Nathan Grange record an episode while Siouxsie and Steven’s SG: You’re referring to the daughter Eve looks on. editing presumably. NG: Yeah. That too. CS: What else? SW and CS:
page 19 podcast
NG: Siouxsie brings all the in- NG: Nothing concrete that I can said “You’re that Nathan, from formation and science and stuff, put my finger on. ’Cos I was the podcast!” And I was quite and all the articles. already very knowledgeable, pleased with myself. before we started. CS: I bring the microphones SW: You had a warm glow. along.
Climategate; it should be suf- How can Keith Muir imagine Homeopaths stronger than ficient to expose the dishonesty that the so-called climate scien- ever? but read the whole of the first tists are to be taken at face value Re: ‘Homeopaths agree to tranche release, and see how the when their dishonesty is so well dilute their claims’ (NZ Skeptic IPPC summit was ruined. documented? They got away Spring 2013) – If homoeopaths with it because of the failures of do indeed dilute their claims, Phil Jones to Wei-Chyung editors and science journalists. does that mean their claims be- Wang and Thomas Karl: Unfortunately skeptic groups come stronger the more they are “Think I’ve managed to per- must take blame too. The truth diluted? suade UEA to ignore all further was out there, but many people FoIA requests if the people have turned a blind eye. [abridged] Graham Sharpe anything to do with Climate Wellington Audit.” Jim Ring Nelson book review Kevin Trenberth on how to deal with climate skeptics: Food industry exposé shocking and “I am sure you know that this is not about the science. It is an inspiring attack to undermine the science in some way. In that regard I dont think you can ignore it all, Janelle Wallace reviews Salt Sugar Fat: How The Food Giants as Mike suggests as one option, Hooked Us, by Michael Moss. Random House Publishing, 2013. but the response should try to somehow label these guys as lazy and incompetent and unable to do ULITZER Prize-winning in- used to determine the “bliss the huge amount of work it takes vestigative reporter Michael point“ of foods, through to the to construct such a database. So P my feeble suggestion is to indeed Moss’ book takes a compelling advertising and selling of prod- cast aspersions on their motives look at the US food industry and ucts despite the health risks. its drive to increase profits no and throw in some counter-rheto- The production and consump- ric. Labeling them as lazy with matter what the consequences tion of processed and conven- nothing better to do seems like a might be for the health of the good thing to do.” nation. His research covers many ience foods in New Zealand are angles from the politicising and increasing, as is the incidence of Tom Wigley to Phil Jones: manipulation of the Dietary obesity and diabetes. Messages about healthy eating stand little “Here are some speculations on Guidelines, to the technology correcting sea temperatures to chance when they have to partly explain the 1940s warming compete with big advertising blip. If you look at the attached budgets and the desire for plot you will see that the land gratification. also shows the 1940s blip (as I’m sure you know). So, if we Read this book to see what could reduce the ocean blip by, has happened in the US. It say, 0.15 deg C, then this would will shock you, educate you be significant for the global [av- and ultimately inspire you erage].” to reassess your own food choices and those of your Mike Mann to Phil Jones: family. A trip to the super- “Be a bit careful about what market will never be the same information you send to Andy again. [Revkin of the New York Times] Janelle Wallace is a retired and what emails you copy him dietitian living in Hamilton. in on. Hes not as predictable as we’d like.”
page 21 bioblog In which we encounter a very strange idea about water
Alison Campbell learns some interesting facts about water chemistry.
OLLOW - the nourishment on a cellular bench-top version for one’s wa- FING recent level? ter supply to go through? (Not events in Ham- We’re too late for the special exactly.) Actually, since many ilton I’ve found offer as it closed on 4 Novem- towns and cities draw their water myself involved ber (yes, of course something’s from rivers, you’d think it would in several de- being sold) but if you’re really be all nicely healed before we bates on the keen, you can learn more about even start. merits of fluoridated water lately. ‘structured water’ at www.wa- He also learned about the damage This was posted on the Fluoride tercns.co.nz/Structured-Water. we are doing to water through Free Facebook page back on 2 html and worldpuja.blog.fc2. electromagnetic energy, (caused November: com/blog-date-201306.html by electric current, cell phone towers, microwave radiation, Did you know that water is be- According to that second site, coming harder and harder for etc), chemicals such as floride the discoverer of ‘structured our bodies to absorb ? Water [sic] and chlorine, and energetic molecules are clumping together water’ has concluded that: contamination. in clusters. In order for our bodies nature heals water through struc- Pity we can’t do much about to absorb the water, we have to turing it. As water passes through the rather significant source of expend energy to break the clus- rivers and streams on the way to EM radiation up in the sky… ters down. Nature breaks water the ocean, the water molecules clusters down through the spin- are repeatedly spun clockwise Because many towns and cities ning action in rivers and streams. and counter clockwise. It’s na- reuse and recycle tap water by As we continue to add chemicals ture’s way of healing the water sending it through chemical fil- to our water and process water and removing the toxins and tration, water is becoming harder through water filtration and treat- restoring water to it’s [sic] natural to absorb and is in fact carrying ment plants, we are making the high energetic state. toxins that can’t be filtered out water more difficult to absorb. with the current water treatment Did you know that by structur- Presumably a washing ma- and filtration systems. ing water, you break down those chine would do much the same clusters and can actually receive thing? Maybe they’re selling a The folks at that website would presumably have conniptions at the mere thought of Singapore, which recycles its wastewater – including sewage – to the tune of 430 million litres a day. (Been there, toured the plant, drank the water.)
number 110 – summer 2014 Want to join NZ Skeptics or renew your membership? An online subscription/renewal form (internet banking and credit card options) is available on the New Zealand Skeptics website (www.skeptics.org.nz) – click on ‘Join us’. For internet banking, use the details below; it is essential that all references are completed. First ref (particulars): Your Surname Second ref (code): First Name Third ref (if available): Membership type ANZ Bank a/c name: New Zealand Skeptics a/c number: 11-7810-0185045-11 If paying by post, fill in the form below, tick box for type of membership and post to: The Treasurer, NZ Skeptics Inc., PO Box 30501, Lower Hutt 5040. Membership is for a calendar year. Cheques to be made payable to “New Zealand Skeptics”. Receipts issued on request only. ------o New membership o Renewal o Waged Individual: $40.00 o Unwaged Individual/Student: $20.00 o Household: $60 o Overseas Individual: $50.00 (Note: payments must be in NZ Dollars. Paying by credit card is an easy way to get NZ Dollars to us – see payment instructions above) Name: ______Address: ______Email: ______
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bioblog Apparently the ‘unhealed’/un- – including the fact that it’s liquid When water is exposed to the en- structured (destructured?) water at the temperatures we normally ergy of anger or hatred it changes is better at carrying these name- encounter – are dependent on the the structure of the water itself. less toxins because its molecules molecule’s geometry. These changes can be seen when have somehow acquired the the water is frozen and examined under a microscope. As water is wrong shape: Also, do these folks have any idea of the relative size of water cycled and recycled in our towns When the hydrogen molecule sits molecules and pathogenic organ- and cities, we are absorbing all of at a 90 degree angle to the oxygen isms? the energies in that water. Struc- molecule, it can easily transport turing water removes the harmful disease and block the absorptive We even get to homeopathy energetic imprinting on water. flow. Structuring water increases (sort of): the hydrogen angle. That increase I don’t know what sort of mi- reduces molecular clustering, Scientists have already proven croscope he’s using, but I think softens the water, and reduces that water absorbs the energetic I want one! footpring of where it’s been, and the transportation of harmful Alison Campbell is a lecturer in particles. that water filtration and treat- ment plants are not removing the Biological Sciences Department at Waikato University. She writes The angle between the two hy- that. Water absorbs and takes Bioblog as a way of encouraging drogen atoms in a water molecule on the enegies of whatever it is critical thinking, looking at scien- is 104.45 degrees, and I suspect it exposed to. tific papers that are relevant to the Level 3 curriculum and Scholar- will be news to chemists that it’s In which case, we’d all be be- possible to change that angle to ship, and fielding questions from ing dosed, all the time, by pretty readers. any measurable degree and still much anything that’s ever ended have the thing we call ‘water’. up in the water. Including … After all, the properties of water emotions?
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