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Sheng Siong Group (SSG SP) SELL Share Price SGD 0.96 Look Elsewhere for Cheaper 12M Price Target SGD 0.85 (-11%) Growth Plays Previous Price Target SGD 0.88

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Sheng Siong Group (SSG SP) SELL Share Price SGD 0.96 Look Elsewhere for Cheaper 12M Price Target SGD 0.85 (-11%) Growth Plays Previous Price Target SGD 0.88 February 27, 2017 Sheng Siong Group (SSG SP) SELL Share Price SGD 0.96 Look elsewhere for cheaper 12m Price Target SGD 0.85 (-11%) growth plays Previous Price Target SGD 0.88 Company Description Maintain SELL; cut TP a further 3% to SGD0.85 Mass-market supermarket operator. Third largest in Maintain SELL post-FY16 results. We find it hard to justify 23x P/E for Singapore by market share. single digit growth, and growth will keep slowing amidst greater traction by online grocers. In our view, Sheng Siong’s operating model is also unsustainable as it depends too much on margin improvement to drive ROE, while asset-use efficiency has deteriorated. With margins close to Statistics peaking and store expansion challenges, growth will remain slow unless 52w high/low (SGD) 1.10/0.84 it is willing to gear up to acquire growth either locally or overseas. But 3m avg turnover (USDm) 2.0 that will certainly change its risk profile. We lower FY17-FY18 EPS Free float (%) 34.9 estimates 3-4% and our DCF-TP 3% to SGD0.85 (WACC 7.1%, LTG 1%). Issued shares (m) 1,504 Market capitalisation SGD1.4B Consumer Staples 4Q/FY16 in line, but uninspiring USD1.0B NP growth over the last five quarters has slowed from >20% YoY a year ago to single digit growth by 3Q16 and just 5.7% in 4Q16. Same store Major shareholders: Sheng Siong Holdings Pte Ltd. 29.9% sales growth (SSSG) ended the year on a weak note. 4Q16 SSSG was flat LIM HOCK ENG 11.3% at +0.2% YoY, mirroring the full year’s 0.2%. Bright spots were a resilient LIM HOCK CHEE 11.3% gross margin and new store sales growth of 8% YoY in 4Q16, above 3Q16’s 5% as Yishun Junction 9 opened. Price Performance 1.15 270 The going to get tougher… 1.10 250 First, supermarket growth is expected to slow sharply. Euromonitor has 1.05 230 Singapore flagged a sharp slowdown in supermarket revenue CAGR to just 1.6% in 1.00 210 2016-2021 from 4.5% in 2011-2016, as online grocery retailing gains 0.95 190 traction. Watch out for the potential entries of Amazon and Tesco. Even 0.90 170 management agreed that the online shopping model is better than brick 0.85 150 & mortar. Second, competition for new store locations is getting stiffer, 0.80 130 with even convenience stores potentially entering the fray. 0.75 110 0.70 90 …but can the tough get going? Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Sheng Siong Group - (LHS, SGD) We think it will be difficult. An ROE decomposition shows that Sheng Sheng Siong Group / Straits Times Index - (RHS, %) Siong’s growth so far has been achieved on large margin improvement, -1M -3M -12M which is nearing the limit and we expect further margin uplift to slow. Absolute (%) 3 (5) 10 Asset-use efficiency has suffered since 2014 since it started buying assets, and now even new store sales growth could be affected by Relative to index (%) 0 (13) (8) increasing site competition. Finally, the last ROE lever, financial Source: FactSet leverage, could be used to acquire growth but that could mean raising the risk profile beyond what investors would be willing to accept. FYE Dec (SGD m) FY15A FY16A FY17E FY18E FY19E Companies mentioned in this report Revenue 764 797 812 856 883 Tesco (TSCO LN) - NR EBITDA 80 91 91 96 102 Core net profit 57 63 63 66 69 Amazon (AMZN US) - NR Core EPS (cts) 3.8 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.6 Dairy Farm (DFI SP) - NR Core EPS growth (%) 19.3 10.4 1.1 4.9 3.3 Net DPS (cts) 3.5 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.1 NTUC - private company Core P/E (x) 25.3 22.9 22.7 21.6 20.9 7-Eleven - private company P/BV (x) 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.3 U Stars Supermarket - private company Net dividend yield (%) 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3 ROAE (%) 23.6 25.3 24.9 25.4 25.5 Yes Supermarket - private company ROAA (%) 15.9 16.6 16.4 17.0 16.9 Angmo Supermarket - private company EV/EBITDA (x) 14.2 15.0 15.2 14.3 13.3 Source: Maybank Kim Eng Net gearing (%) (incl perps) net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash Consensus net profit - - 68 72 na MKE vs. Consensus (%) - - (6.6) (7.3) na Gregory Yap [email protected] (65) 6231 5848 THIS REPORT HAS BEEN PREPARED BY MAYBANK KIM ENG RESEARCH (PTE) LTD Co. Reg No: 198700034E MICA (P) : 099/03/2012 SEE PAGE 15 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Sheng Siong Group 1. 4Q/FY16 results review Uninspiring end to FY16 for SSSG FY16 net profit of SGD62.7m (+10% YoY) was within our expectation, but still uninspiring. Same store sales growth (SSSG) ended the year on a weak note. 4Q16 SSSG was flat at +0.2% YoY, mirroring the full year’s 0.2%. Net profit growth over the last five quarters has slowed drastically from >20% YoY a year ago to single digit growth by 3Q16 and just 5.7% in 4Q16. Figure 1: Net profit growth has slowed sharply in the past 5 Figure 2: SSSG is near zero; moderated by strong new store quarters sales growth 35.0% 20.0% 31.5% New store sales rose 8% in 4Q16, faster than 3Q16 because of the opening of Yishun Junction 9 in Sep 30.0% 26.5% 15.0% 2016 23.9% 25.0% 21.9% 20.8% 10.0% 19.3% 18.7% 20.0% 16.7% 16.8% 15.4% 5.0% 15.0% 12.2% 11.3% 0.0% 10.0% 7.8% 8.2% 5.7% 8.7% 5.0% 7.4% 7.3% -5.0% 5.9% 5.7% 5.1% 5.5% 1.2% 5.3% 4.8% 4.8% 4.7% 4.6% 4.3% 4.9% Comparable store sales grew just 0.2% YoY in 4Q16 (the same as FY16), and 0.0% -10.0% have plunged back to 1Q16 low, due to tepid demand caused by weak economic 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 conditions Revenue growth Core NP growth -15.0% Overall sales New store sales Comparable store sales Source: Company data Source: Company data Industry beat-rate has eroded In the past, Sheng Siong managed to outgrow the rest of the industry by a factor of 1.6x to 1.8x. But its latest full-year results showed that this has fallen to just 1.2x in FY16, partly due to closures of two outlets late last year for renovations, namely Tampines Blk 506 and Loyang Point Blk 258, and also to a sharp slowdown in same store sales growth. Figure 3: Sheng Siong’s sales growth (historical & forecast) vs the sector (x) 12.0% 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.8 10.0% 1.5 1.6 1.6 10.2% 7.9% 1.4 8.0% 1.2 1.2 5.6% 6.0% 5.3% 1.0 4.2% 5.8% 0.8 4.0% 5.1% 0.6 3.5% 0.4 2.0% 3.2% 3.3% 0.2 0.0% 0.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 How much did SSG's growth beat the industry by? (RHS) Sheng Siong Singapore sales growth (LHS) Singapore supermarket sector growth (LHS) Source: Company data, Euromonitor Some bright spots However, new store sales growth benefited from the Sep 2016 opening of Yishun Junction 9, rising 8% YoY in 4Q16, taking new store sales growth to 6.2% for the full year. This helped to offset the weak SSSG. Gross margin also improved YoY to 26.3% in 4Q16, another record high, driven by a higher proportion of fresh produce at 42% of total sales in 2016, up from 40% at the end of FY15. February 27, 2017 2 Sheng Siong Group Figure 4: Gross margin hit a record high in 4Q16 (basis points) 30.0% 4.0% 25.0% 3.0% 2.0% 20.0% 1.0% 15.0% 0.0% 10.0% -1.0% 5.0% -2.0% 0.0% -3.0% Gross margin YoY ppt chg (RHS) Source: Company data 2. Expect growth to slow Euromonitor forecasts Singapore supermarket growth to slow drastically in 2016-2021 According to Euromonitor, Singapore’s supermarket scene is set to see a sharp slowdown during 2016-2021 to a CAGR of just 1.6% after growing 4.2% in 2011- 2016. Figure 5: Supermarket sector revenue growth in Singapore to slow sharply in 2016-2021 (SGD'm) 10,000.0 8.0% 9,000.0 7.0% 8,000.0 5.8% 6.0% 7,000.0 5.1% 6,000.0 5.0% 3.5% 5,000.0 3.2% 3.3% 4.0% 4,000.0 3.0% 2.0% 3,000.0 1.6% 1.8% 1.2% 1.4% 2.0% 2,000.0 1,000.0 1.0% 0.0 0.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F Modern Grocery Retailers (MGR) Supermarkets MGR growth (RHS) Supermarkets growth (RHS) Source: Euromonitor The reasons cited include the following: . Online grocery retailers are set to gain traction as tech-savvy consumers in Singapore take to the convenience that Internet retailers offer.
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