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NUS Student Research Grocery Retail This Report Is Published for Educational Purposes Only by Students Competing in the CFA Institute Research Challenge NUS Student Research Grocery Retail This report is published for educational purposes only by students competing in the CFA Institute Research Challenge. Sheng Siong Group Ltd January 5, 2012 Ticker: ●SSG SP (Bloomberg) Recommendation: ●BUY th Price: ●S$0.465 (as of 5 Jan 2012) Price Target: ●S$0.57 Revenue EBIT EPS ROE P/E Ratio Div Yld (S$ mil) (S$mil) (cents) (%) (x) (%) 2010A 628 38 2.84 36.5 16.4 - 2011F 544 34 1.96 28.6 23.7 5.1 2012F 601 41 2.45 26.6 19.0 4.7 2013F 703 49 2.97 30.4 15.6 4.5 Beyond Defensive: Big Punch From a Small Contender We initiate coverage on Sheng Siong (SSG) with a BUY rating and target price of S$0.57 per share based on a DCF model, offering 23% potential upside. SSG is Singapore’s third largest retailer of groceries and household products with 9.1% market share. Store Growth from 25 to 37 Drives Top-Line: We expect SSG to achieve growth of 12 new stores over the next 5 years driven by a consolidation in Singapore’s grocery retailing industry. The rapid development of new Housing & Development Board (HDB) estates will further create new catchment areas for supermarket store growth. SSG’s strong cash position, debt-free balance sheet, and positive free cash flow from 2012 affirm its ability to finance store expansions. Shift in Product Mix to Higher Margin Offerings: We estimate gross margins to improve 228bp to 24% in 2010-2016F due to a shift in product mix to fresh produce and house brands that offer higher margins. This shift reinforces a broader industry trend that sees the supermarket segment capturing market share from wet markets in fresh produce sales. SSG plans to leverage on its logistical capabilities to increase direct sourcing, while also tripling its house brand product offerings over the next 18 months to improve margins. Further, SSG is expected to scale up its operations tremendously following the completion of its centralized distribution center at Mandai Link. This will lead to greater bargaining power for SSG vis-à-vis its suppliers, and attendant increases in supplier rebates and lower cost of sales. Defensive Industry to Outperform in 2012: We recommend SSG as a strategic inflation hedge as its same store sales (SSS) growth has consistently outperformed CPI trends. Our analysis shows that SSG’s SSS growth (SSSg) has broadly been in line with inflation. More importantly, checks with management reveal that supermarkets are able to pass on increases in food prices to consumers and retain their margins. SSG’s dividend payout ratio of 90% in 2012 translates to a yield of 4.7% and is expected to increase slightly. In order to support its aggressive expansion plans, we forecast a decline in the payout ratio to 70% in 2013-16F. Valuation Remains Attractive Against Peers: Despite SSG’s share price putting on gains of 40% since its IPO in August 2011, our DCF-based target price of S$0.57 implies a further upside potential of 23% from its current price of S$0.465. Our DCF assumes a 10.5% discount rate and long-term growth of 1.5%. This implies 23x 2012F P/E, and a PEG of 1.27x. We would turn more positive on faster store and SSS growth, as that would provide greater operating leverage and upside potential. S$ SSG vs STI Price Graph Market Profile 0.60 105 52 Week Price Range S$0.31-0.57 100 Average Daily Volume 10,655,500 0.50 Beta 0.85 95 Dividend Yield (Estimated) 4.70% Shares Outstanding (m) 1,383.53 90 0.40 Market Capitalization (m) S$643 85 Institutional Holdings N.A. Insider Holdings 71.6% 0.30 80 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Book Value per Share S$0.093 Sheng Siong (LHS) Relative STI Index (RHS) Debt to Total Capital CASH Return on Equity 27% Important disclosures appear at the back of this report CFA Institute Research Challenge 05 January 2012 Figure 2: Strong store expansion between Business Description 2001-2008 leading to a 13% revenue From its humble beginnings in 1983 as a single store in Ang Mo Kio, SSG has evolved to become CAGR the third largest grocery retailer in Singapore, with approximately S$628.4 million in revenue as of FY2010. SSG completed its Initial Public Offering on 17th August 2011 (Figure 1). 25 600 20 Figure 1: Sheng Siong share price and news flow since IPO 15 400 S$ 0.60 September 1, 2011 10 Lease of premises for new 200 store in Woodlands Number Number of Stores 5 0.55 November 28, 2011 Revenue ( in Revenue millions) September 16, 2011 Sheng Siong 0 0 Lease of premises for 1985 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 announces plans to 0.50 new store in Thomson Revenue (RHS) Store Count (LHS) expand into Malaysia Source: Company Data, NUS Student Research Figure 3: Heat map showing store 0.45 locations and the concentration of population below median income (target group) 0.40 August 17, 2011 November 11, 2011 0.35 Sheng Siong launches IPO on 3Q11 results released the SGX at $0.33 per share 0.30 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Source: Company Data, NUS Student Research Riding on Singapore’s supermarket boom, SSG experienced tremendous store growth of 17 Source: Company Data, NUS Student Research supermarkets between 2001 and 2008, growing its revenue at a rate of 13% CAGR from 2006-2010 Figure 4: Supermarkets remain the (Figure 2). SSG is well-known domestically as a supermarket which offers low prices and a unique dominant retail format for SSG mix of fresh and dry products in a supermarket setting. This strategy has been successful in capturing the lower- to middle-income consumer segment in the HDB neighborhoods (Figure 3). 30 40,000 SSG has since progressed from a traditional low-price supermarket to a modern supermarket franchise with wider product offerings. It is looking to grow the higher-margin fresh food and house 20 brands segments, which currently contribute 25% and 5% of total revenue respectively. The 20,000 remaining 70% is made up of dry produce. 10 While supermarkets continue to be SSG’s dominant retail format, the company has recently added 3 0 0 wet market stores and 1 hypermarket, for a total retail space of 27,390sq m (Figure 4). Store 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 expansion was slowed down between 2008 and 2011 as the company focused its resources on Supermarket Store Area (RHS) building its 50,455 sq m Mandai Link distribution centre. Following a successful restructuring of its Hypermarket Store Area (RHS) key businesses, the opening of Mandai Link and a recent IPO in 2011, the company is now armed Wet Market Store Area (RHS) Store Count (LHS) with ample cash for future growth. Source: NUS Student Research Figure 5: Grocery industry remains robust during a recession Macroeconomic Trends Impending Economic Slowdown 12% Singapore’s extremely open economy is expected to decline in tandem with falling global GDP 8% growth rates worldwide due to the poor US recovery and further aggravation by the European debt 4% crisis. In such periods, consumers usually respond by cutting costs and seeking lower price 0% alternatives. However, the grocery retail industry as a whole is largely insulated from such 2006 2007 2008 2009 -4% economic fluctuations and typically shows variations of much smaller magnitudes (Figure 5). -8% Highly Volatile Food Commodity Prices Grocery spending GDP Food commodity prices are relatively unpredictable in the longer term due to extremely uncertain Source: Euromonitor, Singstat, NUS Student Research supply levels. Such input cost volatility presents a risk to grocery retailers should they be unable to Figure 6: Grocery retailers’ revenues pass on the increased costs. In view of this, Singapore’s grocery retailers’ revenues are highly closely mirror food commodity prices correlated with food commodity growth trends (Figure 6). This can be indicative of strong ability to 50% 5% pass on costs to consumers. 4% Gradual But Consistent Population Growth 25% 3% Total population growth is a key driver of grocery retailers’ revenues. IMF forecasts Singapore’s 2% total population growth to average 1.75% over the next five years, providing the industry with a 0% stable base level of growth. 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1% -25% 0% Food commodity prices (LHS) Grocery Retailers' Revenue Growth (RHS) Source: Euromonitor, SingStat, NUS Student Research, 2 CFA Institute Research Challenge 05 January 2012 Figure 7: SSG in a highly concentrated Industry Overview and Competitive Positioning industry The grocery retail industry in Singapore had total revenue of $6.9 billion in 2010, representing a 3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) since 2005. It is forecasted to grow at 2.8% CAGR from 2010 to 2015. 35.8% 28.5% High Degree of Industry Concentration 22.6% The industry is dominated by three large players which collectively hold more than 60% market 1.6% share in terms of revenue. NTUC Fairprice Co-operative Pte Ltd is the market leader (28.5% as of 2.4% 9.1% 2010), followed by Dairy Farm International Holdings Ltd (22.6%) and Sheng Siong Group Ltd (9.1%) (Figure 7). NTUC and Dairy Farm operate hypermarkets, supermarkets, and convenience NTUC Fairprice Dairy Farm Sheng Siong stores, whereas SSG’s core focus is on supermarkets. The industry is expected to consolidate Carrefour Prime Others further over the next few years, with the top three players capturing market share from smaller, Source: Euromonitor, NUS Student Research more traditional grocery retailers (Figure 8).
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