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Sheng Siong Group (SSG SP) SELL Share Price SGD 1.09 Prefer Purchase at Promo Price 12M Price Target SGD 0.95 (-13%)

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Sheng Siong Group (SSG SP) SELL Share Price SGD 1.09 Prefer Purchase at Promo Price 12M Price Target SGD 0.95 (-13%) 1.09 March 18, 2019 Sheng Siong Group (SSG SP) SELL Share Price SGD 1.09 Prefer purchase at promo price 12m Price Target SGD 0.95 (-13%) Company Description Not immune to market headwinds; initiate with SELL Mass-market supermarket operator. Second largest in We initiate coverage of SSG with a SELL and DCF-based TP of SGD0.95 Singapore by market share. (7.8% WACC, 1% LTG). Our TP implies 19.5x FY19 P/E, less than 1SD below its 5-year mean. We believe Singapore’s second-largest supermarket chain will not be immune to a slowdown in consumer spending amid economic deceleration anticipated by MKE Economics Statistics team in 2019, on top of rising e-commerce competition and changing 52w high/low (SGD) 1.18/0.93 dining habits. We pencil in more-conservative-than-Street estimates on 3m avg turnover (USDm) 0.9 new-store sales and same-stores-sales (SSS) contributions for FY19-20E. Free float (%) 41.0 Risks to our view include higher-than-expected new store and SSS Issued shares (m) 1,504 contributions due to improved consumer sentiment and reduced Market capitalisation SGD1.6B Consumer Staples competition. USD1.2B Major shareholders: New-store growth a one-off spurt; limited visibility Sheng Siong Holdings Pte Ltd. 29.8% Lim Hock Chee 9.1% For a mature grocery retail sector like Singapore’s, new stores are Lim Hock Eng 9.1% expected to form supermarkets’ biggest revenue growth driver. Although Price Performance we expect an 8.4% YoY revenue growth boost in FY19E from SSG’s higher- than-normal 10 new stores in 2018, we believe tepid SSS contributions 1.20 145 and smaller basket values will be drags on subsequent revenue growth. 1.15 135 Also, SSG’s store rollout is dependent on HDB site availability. We Singapore 1.10 125 conservatively forecast 4/2 new stores for FY19/20E. 1.05 115 Behaviour switch to weigh heavily 1.00 105 Our recent bespoke consumer survey points to a growing frequency of 0.95 95 home-delivered cooked meals in Singapore, backed by emerging food- 0.90 85 delivery services. In our view, these are early indicators of a structural Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 change in consumers’ dining habits, where in the interest of time, ready Sheng Siong Group - (LHS, SGD) Sheng Siong Group / Straits Times Index - (RHS, %) meals are preferred to home-cooked meals. Such a trend is detrimental to supermarkets’ fresh-produce sales. -1M -3M -12M Absolute (%) 1 0 16 Price + convenience proposition isn’t enough Relative to index (%) 2 (4) 27 Our analysis of a sample basket of staples shows SSG’s pricing to be Source: FactSet comparable to market leader’s NTUC FairPrice (unlisted) and cheaper than competitors like Dairy Farm’s (DFI SP, USD7.37, NR) brands. Given small price differences between NTUC FairPrice and SSG and the proximity of their stores, we see limited consumer conversion to SSG when they trade down in an economic downturn. FYE Dec (SGD m) FY17A FY18A FY19E FY20E FY21E Revenue 830 891 966 1,000 1,039 EBITDA 97 100 109 111 114 Core net profit 68 71 73 76 79 Core EPS (cts) 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.2 Core EPS growth (%) 7.8 4.7 3.2 3.6 3.8 Net DPS (cts) 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.7 Core P/E (x) 20.6 22.5 22.4 21.6 20.8 P/BV (x) 5.1 5.5 5.3 4.9 4.6 Net dividend yield (%) 3.6 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.4 ROAE (%) 26.7 25.2 24.3 23.4 22.6 ROAA (%) 17.1 16.9 16.2 15.8 15.5 EV/EBITDA (x) 13.7 15.0 14.0 13.3 12.7 Heartlands: Refers to areas with a high concentration Net gearing (%) (incl perps) net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash of affordable residential housing estates developed by Consensus net profit - - 78 83 88 Housing and Development Board (HDB). Over 80% of MKE vs. Consensus (%) - - (6.1) (8.4) (10.3) Singapore’s population reside in HDB estates. Sze Jia Min [email protected] (65) 6231 5845 THIS REPORT HAS BEEN PREPARED BY MAYBANK KIM ENG RESEARCH Co. Reg No: 198700034E MICA (P) : 099/03/2012 SEE PAGE 38 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Sheng Siong Group Table of Contents 1. Downside catalysts ................................................................................................................... 4 2. Focus Charts .......................................................................................................................... 5 3. New stores no longer as fresh in FY19 ............................................................................................ 6 4. Behaviour switch to weigh heavily ................................................................................................ 8 5. Price + convenience isn’t enough ................................................................................................. 14 6. Financial analysis .................................................................................................................... 19 7. Valuation ............................................................................................................................... 24 8. Risks to our rating & forecasts ..................................................................................................... 27 Appendix 1: Outlets & Revenue Contributions ........................................................................................ 29 Appendix 2: Survey Results ............................................................................................................... 31 Appendix 3: Supermarket Concentration Analysis .................................................................................... 33 March 18, 2019 2 Sheng Siong Group Value Proposition Price Drivers . Retailer of value-for-money groceries, with low and well- Historical share price trend 4 managed overheads. 1.20 220 . Able to defend market share with loyal customers. 1.10 2 3 200 Overtook Dairy Farm as 2nd-largest supermarket player in 1.00 180 2018. 0.90 160 . Conveniently located in HDB heartlands. Effectively 1 0.80 140 manages rent costs and competition from online grocers. 0.70 120 . Brand positioning with fresh-item and affordability emphasis. 0.60 100 0.50 80 . ROE stands out among peers. Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Sheng Siong Group - (LHS, SGD) Profitability vs ROEs Sheng Siong Group / Straits Times Index - (RHS, %) 5Y EBIT Margin (%) Source: Company, Maybank Kim Eng, Factset SSG 9.00 8.00 Puregold 7.00 1. New-store dry spell of 2013-14 ended with opening of 6.00 five new stores in 2015. 5.00 Sun Art 2. Gross margins exceeded 26% for the first time in 2Q16, 4.00 Valor Jiajiayue because of bulk handling with improvements made to its 3.00 Arcs Yonghui Mandai warehouse. 2.00 Better Life 3. Stock corrected and stuck in a trading range after news 1.00 5Y ROE (%) 0.00 of Amazon’s plan to enter ASEAN. - 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 4. Investors sought defensive stocks amid increased stock Source: Bloomberg, Maybank Kim Eng market volatility and US-China trade war. Financial Metrics Swing Factors . We model 0.5% SSS contribution for FY19E and FY20E to Upside reflect deteriorating consumer sentiment. Expect revenue, EBIT and net margins to outperform peers . Stronger-than-expected revenue growth on the back of as consumers downtrade to more affordable groceries. strong GDP, wage and employment growth. Capex expected to dwindle from FY19E, as the group . Better-than-expected food-cost savings or lower labour reverts to more gradual expansion. costs following automation. New-store openings expected to slow down as market . Wins more-than-expected tenders for HDB commercial approaches saturation in Singapore. properties for new supermarkets. Downside Revenue growth slows with slower new-store openings . China venture does not take off. no. of new revenue . Sudden and unexpected jumps in raw-food prices which stores growth (%) 12 opened 9.0 cannot be passed on due to competition No of new stores 10 8.0 . Changing consumer habits to more dining out or food- Revenue growth 7.0 delivery services instead of home-cooked meals. 8 6.0 6 5.0 4 4.0 3.0 2 2.0 0 1.0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Source: Company, Maybank Kim Eng [email protected] March 18, 2019 3 Sheng Siong Group 1. Downside catalysts SSG is the second-largest and only pure supermarket operator listed in Singapore. It operates 54 stores with a 25% market share by sales. In China, it opened its first store in Kunming in Nov 2017 and will open a second before end-3Q19. It is a familiar name to many Singaporeans who associate SSG with convenience and value groceries, having operated for 34 years in the heartlands. While we believe SSG’s earnings tend to fare better than those of consumer-discretionary stocks, we also see risks of the Singapore consumer further tightening their purses amid slower GDP, slow-to-stagnant wage growth and the rising threat from e-commerce. New stores a one-off boost in 2019E Crucial to Singapore retailers’ growth is the opening of new stores. SSG opened a record-high 10 new ones in FY18. The last time it opened close to that many stores was in FY12, with eight new stores. Management classifies new stores as those opened in the last and current financial years. As these usually contribute strong revenue growth in their first 3-4 years, we expect its 10 new stores to contribute 7.2% or the bulk of FY19E total revenue growth of 8.4%. However, unlike in FY12, these 10 new stores, particularly those opened in 2HFY18, were opened against a backdrop of deteriorating GDP growth as well as changing consumer dining habits. Hence, we are more conservative than the Street and management in our estimates of new-store sales contributions. Dining convenience means less fresh produce purchased for home-prepared meals We conducted a survey which attracted 200 respondents in Jan 2019 to understand Singaporeans’ dining habits and how new online competition and app-based food-delivery services influence their dining decisions. We conclude that there is a possible long-term trend of consumers choosing cooked-food deliveries available at the push of a button, which may affect the frequency of their supermarket visits.
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