Lessons for UKIP from Germany and Austria
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VOLUME 13 NO.3 MARCH 2013 journal The Association of Jewish Refugees Lessons for UKIP from Germany and Austria robably the most striking shift dissatisfied with the governing party of the to gain parliamentary representation and in the fortunes of British politi- day but cannot bring themselves to vote political power than one from the right of P cal parties recently has been the for the main opposition party. The Liberal the political spectrum. (Or indeed from rise in support for the United Kingdom Democrats learnt to play that role skilfully, the left: who remembers the success of Independence Party (UKIP), which now presenting themselves as a centre party the British Green Party at the European matches the Liberal Democrats in the attractive to disillusioned voters from parliamentary elections of 1989, when it opinion polls. UKIP also did well at the both Tory and Labour camps. The Social secured 15 per cent of the vote, far ahead last set of parliamentary by-elections and Democrat/Liberal Alliance took off in the of the Social and Liberal Democrats?) It is should perform strongly at next year’s 1980s, when the gulf between the right- important to differentiate between right- elections for the European Parliament. wing policies of the Thatcher government leaning ‘third parties’ like UKIP and par- That said, UKIP has come nowhere and the left-wing course of the Labour ties of the far right, like the Front National near winning a by-election, as the Social in France, Golden Dawn in Greece or the Democrats and the Social Democrat/Lib- BNP in Britain. The latter are parties that eral Alliance repeatedly did in the 1980s, are effectively excluded from government enabling the Liberal Democrats, their as they are not considered potential coali- successors, to break through to become a tion partners by the democratic parties of major political player. As for the European both right and left. elections, which the British electorate In Germany, one of the abiding features traditionally uses to give the government of politics has been the presence of a of the day a good kicking, they are a no- centrist, liberal third party, the Free toriously poor indicator of a party’s likely Democrats (FDP), in almost all the performance at the next general election; governments that have ruled West one can in any case question the value to Germany since 1949 and the united UKIP of success in elections to a parlia- Guido Westerwelle, leader of Germany’s FDP Germany since 1990. This is largely due ment that it openly despises. to Germany’s system of proportional The key to success for UKIP and all Party under Michael Foot opened up an representation, which has ensured that other English-based parties is to win inviting gap in the centre of British politics no party has gained a majority of seats seats at Westminster, and there UKIP that a third party could exploit. But since in parliament and been able to govern has so far failed and looks like continuing 2010 the Liberal Democrats have been in without coalition partners, with the sole to fail, as it did at the general election of government themselves and can no longer exception of the period 1957-61, when 2010. When Nigel Farage, the leader of appeal to those voters who would wish a Konrad Adenauer’s Christian Democrats UKIP and its only high-profile candidate, plague on both the government and the (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party, stood against the Speaker of the House of Labour opposition. the CSU, held an overall majority. This Commons in 2010, he was easily defeated, UKIP has undoubtedly benefited from has given the FDP a crucial role in even though the Speaker by convention the unpopularity of the present govern- balancing between the two main parties, does not campaign and might therefore ment, especially as Labour, the principal the CDU/CSU on the right and the Social be seen as the softest of targets. And that opposition party, has yet to rebuild its Democrats (SPD) on the left. In 1969, defeat occurred soon after UKIP’s strong appeal to uncommitted voters after its when the FDP agreed to form a coalition showing at the European elections of 2009, defeat in 2010. But UKIP is plainly a with the SPD, the CDU/CSU had to when it scored 16.5 per cent of the vote, party of the right, standing to the right relinquish its position as a governing coming ahead of Labour and second only of the Conservatives on key issues like party for the first time in the history of to the Conservatives. immigration and education. An analysis West Germany; conversely, when the UKIP shows every sign of becoming of election results from Germany and FDP split with the SPD in 1982, it formed the party of protest, the ‘third party’ Austria since 1945 demonstrates that a part of a new coalition with the CDU/ that picks up votes from those who are third party of the centre is better placed continued overleaf AJR JOURNAL MARCH 2013 Lessons for UKIP continued Reception at the CSU, as junior partner in Helmut Kohl’s two major parties and ‘third parties’ were Austrian Embassy government. squeezed out. Secondly, however, the very To commemorate the 75th Only rarely have there been coalitions closeness of the electoral battle between Anniversary of the Anschluss that have excluded the FDP. The prime the ÖVP and the SPÖ, as it developed from examples are the periods 1966-69 and the late 1940s, compelled both parties to Wednesday 13 March 2013 at 6.30 pm 2005-09 when a Grand Coalition of CDU/ compete for the votes of uncommitted vot- CSU and SPD held power. These were by ers, many of whom were not moderates or His Excellency Ambassador their very nature temporary governments liberals but people suspected of pro-Nazi Emil Brix will host a reception for AJR members that ended at the next general election, sympathies who had initially voted for the Refreshments will be provided. as soon as one of the two big parties so-called ‘Independents’, the Verband der For catering and security purposes, could form a coalition with the FDP, as Unabhängigen. places must be reserved. Willy Brandt’s SPD did in 1969 and as Consequently, the ‘third parties’ that The AJR will be providing transport. Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU did in 2009. have influenced the government of Austria Pick-up points and timings will be The great exception in German politics have often had a troubling component confirmed once all applications are received. was the period 1998-2005, when Gerhard from the far right. The Freedom Party Schröder led a governing coalition of the (Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs, FPÖ), Please contact Susan Harrod SPD and the Greens, a purely left-wing founded in 1956, was twice led by ex- on 020 8385 3078 or at government. But that government was SS men, most notably Friedrich Peter, [email protected] hardly a model of socialist radicalism party chairman from 1958-78. The Social since its major achievement was arguably Democrat Bruno Kreisky, the outstanding Wolfgang Schüssel’s ÖVP. But at the the institution of measures to reform the chancellor of post-war Austria and a Jew, elections of 2002 the FPÖ lost almost German economy, the Hartz reforms that notoriously developed friendly relations two thirds of its vote and in 2005 it split, contributed so notably to the renewal of with Peter and the FPÖ, which supported with Haider forming his own party, the German economic competitiveness. Kreisky when he headed a minority BZÖ (Alliance for the Future of Austria); In Germany, the parties that stand to government after the SPÖ’s success at the BZÖ left government following its the right of the CDU/CSU have been the polls in 1970. With the election of a electoral defeat in 2006. Haider’s death excluded from government. The NPD, genuine liberal, Norbert Steger, as party in 2008 deprived the BZÖ of its principal in particular, often seen as neo-Nazi in chairman in 1980, the FPÖ seemed to electoral asset, condemning it to long-term sympathy, has been kept at the margin be rejecting its right-wing past and to be decline, while the FPÖ, under Heinz- of German politics. The same is true of transforming itself into a centrist ‘third Christian Strache, remains too extreme the left, if one counts Joschka Fischer’s party’. to be a potential partner in a coalition Greens as moderates on the basis of their But that process was put sharply into government. All in all, a story that offers performance in government in 1998-2005. reverse when Steger was replaced in 1986 little hope to ‘third parties’ from the right. The great success among the German by Jörg Haider, who steered the party Anthony Grenville third parties has unquestionably been the back onto a right-wing course. Haider FDP, operating from the centre and able to was a charismatic figure whose appeal AJR/British Academy switch between potential coalition parties extended well beyond the traditional funding appeal to its right or to its left. support base of the far right. He was that The joint appeal by the AJR and In Austria, however, the course of exceptional figure, the leader of a ‘third the British Academy to support politics since 1945 has differed from party’ from the right who led it to electoral academic research in the arts and that in Germany in two important re- success, albeit briefly. After his party’s social sciences has so far raised over £16,000 from 124 donors.