Rule by the Libyan Arab Armed Forces has disrupted Issue 2021/14 April 2021 the fragile balance in Sirte Omar Al-Hawari The city of Sirte has seen a period of fragile stability since December 2016. Despite the successes of local actors in maintaining this balance,1 on 4 April 2019 it was undermined by the Libyan Armed Arab Forces’ (LAAF) assault on Tripoli, the centre of the Government of National Accord (GNA). Since then, the city has become more important to both parties in the conflict. On 6 January 2020 following a surprise attack, the LAAF succeeded in taking control of Sirte. Although the city had previously been subjected to airstrikes by unidentified parties in support of the LAAF General Command in September 2019, the GNA did not take any precautions to repel the broad ground offensive as it primarily focused on defending Tripoli. The LAAF was quick to try and consolidate its control over the city, whose location and socio-political specificities made it a very important strategic gain.2 The strategic importance of Sirte changed from January to June 2020 as the balance of power tipped between Libya’s two main warring coalitions.3 The collapse of the LAAF forces in western Libya – as a result of the withdrawal of the Russian Wagner Group forces – led to the withdrawal of all LAAF forces from the region and them gathering in the Sirte and al-Jufra region.4 Sirte gradually became the BRIEF main frontline in the domestic and international conflict, and a focal point in military and political negotiations.5 1. Al-Hawari, Omar, ‘The City in the Middle: Fragile Stability and Future Opportunities in Libya’s Sirte,’ Policy Brief, Middle East Directions, European University Institute, December 2019, https://cadmus.eui.eu/handle/1814/65610 2. Al-Hawari, Omar, ‘How Sirte Became a Hotbed of the Libyan Conflict,’ Policy Brief, Middle East Directions, European University Institute, January 2021, https://cadmus.eui.eu//handle/1814/69879 POLICY 3. Idem. 4. The Turkish-backed GNA forces marched towards the city to regain it as the gateway to control of the Oil Crescent and the main source of most Libyan exports. However, the GNA forces failed to regain control of Sirte due to an intervention by an unidentified air force, which forced its retreat to al-Hisha, and the emergence of an Egyptian-Russian determination to prevent the advance. 5. GNA holds on to Sirte and Turkey requires Haftar to withdraw for a truce, Al- Arabiya, January 2020, https://bit.ly/3vvtQ3g Through affiliated security agencies, the LAAF used Military Rule and Insecurity force to rule the city. Both GNA-affiliated fighters who might have remained in the city and supporters of the On 7 January 2020, the Ministry of the Interior of the former regime allied to the LAAF represented potential Interim Government rapidly allocated the majority of its threats. To counter this, the local groups affiliated with resources to tightening security control over Sirte. On the LAAF launched violent security campaigns and the one hand, the hasty and disorganised withdrawal exploited them to exact revenge on their opponents. This of GNA forces left most of its supporters beleaguered affected the relationships between local tribes. It also in Sirte. On the other, there were mounting fears of a resulted in increased tensions between LAAF-affiliated possible rebellion by former regime supporters who armed groups, shedding light on their diverging goals derived their power from their LAAF-aligned military and loyalties. leaders. This represented a real threat to the LAAF forces, which continued to advance westwards to the village of The LAAF also made attempts to manipulate the city’s al-Hisha. With the Sirte Security Directorate6 lacking the social characteristics to its advantage. The multiple ability or loyalty to face up to these threats, the Ministry of battles and intense fighting that have taken place in Sirte the Interior dispatched most of its Criminal Investigation over the past decade have seriously damaged its social Units from Benghazi and the Internal Security Forces to fabric, making local actors increasingly dependent on the city of Sirte7 to launch extensive security campaigns. political allegiances to gain influence. While the Firjan tribe is loyal to the LAAF, Sirte is also considered a major stronghold of supporters of the former regime from the Using the Security Apparatus to Settle Political and Qadhadhfa, Warfalla and Ma'daan tribes, which have Tribal Scores gradually become key elements in the LAAF’s control The policies of the Internal Security and Criminal over the city. However, the way they have exercised power Investigation Units led to further schisms among Sirte’s has largely contributed to deepening rifts within the local social components. The Ministry of the Interior adopted community. a security policy similar to that of the former regime, using security personnel from outside the city to avoid The eastern-based Interim Government also imposed social mediation efforts that could fend off arrests. The its political control over the city by dismissing the policy affected the attitudes of residents, who mistrust the Elected Municipal Council and establishing a Steering former regime’s violent tactics of using hybrid security Committee including members of all the major tribes, apparatuses. who were appointed without clear criteria. Its policies have significantly contributed to a consolidation of tribalism The methods they used – breaking into homes, searching and to increasing divisions in Sirte. Consequently, tribal the contents of people’s cell phones, arresting the family and political power struggles led to a serious deterioration members of fugitives and using torture in prisons – of the living and service conditions in the city. were unfamiliar to the community in Sirte, which has historically had low levels of crime. The Sirte tribes' social This paper aims to analyse the main factors that have charter also forbids breaking into homes and public and contributed to destabilising the fragile balance in Sirte private properties. under the rule of the LAAF. It focuses on the counter- productive effects of the use of security agencies and The residents expressed their discontent toward the raids of the manipulation of tribal and political loyalties to in the media and through the coordinators of the Council impose LAAF control over the city. It also highlights of Tribal Elders, prompting one tribal dignitary from the fragility of the LAAF alliances in the city and Misrata in April 2020 to request safe passage for families its neighbourhood and suggests how new security with roots in Misrata to leave Sirte. The city subsequently arrangements could contribute to restoring stability and 6. The Sirte Security Directorate is considered the only government support peacebuilding efforts. apparatus that has not been infiltrated by armed groups or involved in political conflicts. 7. Decision No. 23 of 2020 by the Ministry of the Interior of the Interim Government regarding assigning the Criminal Investigation Units of Benghazi, with all their equipment, to Sirte. 2 ■ Robert Schuman Centre | April 2021 witnessed the displacement of a large number of families include the 106th Brigade,9 the 110th Brigade,10 the 166th with Misratan roots to western Libya. Brigade,11 the 604th Infantry Brigade and the Tariq ibn Ziyad Brigade,12 together with certain companies of the Most of the raids and arrests conducted by LAAF- 9th Brigade from the city of Tarhuna.13 The presence of the affiliated forces have been based on false information armed groups, most of which appear to be undisciplined, and reports aimed at settling political scores and along with their continual recruitment from among vendettas. Apparatuses such as the Internal Security Sirte’s youth, has significantly undermined security and and the Criminal Investigation Units, which appear to stability in the city. be controlled by supporters of the former regime, were used to target their rivals. A significant number of young Deteriorating economic conditions combined with the men in Sirte, some no older than seventeen, have spent military stalemate have led to the outbreak of internal more than six months in Benghazi prisons. According conflict among the LAAF brigades. The lack of a unifying to testimonies from former inmates, interrogations only goal bringing these different units together and of began months after imprisonment, and inmates were financial liquidity have prompted some of these armed subjected to humiliation and torture prior to their release.8 groups to find alternative sources of income. These Tribes may have various attitudes in the future, but include armed robbery and control over the fuel trade in they will all invariably hold LAAF-aligned components the city, reselling subsidised fuel to citizens on the black responsible. In particular, the city may witness individual market at double the price. On 28 November 2020, the acts of revenge targeting those involved in the storming tensions among these groups reached the point of armed of homes. 9. The 106th Brigade Group was established in 2016 following a Concentration of Armed Groups, Lack of Control decision by Field Marshal Haftar in the city of Benghazi. It includes and Insecurity several brigades, most of them from the eastern regions. Major General Salem Raheel was recently assigned to lead this brigade Militarily, the shift in the strategic importance of Sirte group after certain activists launched a campaign of criticism of between January and June 2020 further impacted the the placing of Saddam Khalifa Haftar in command of the brigade fragile stability in the city. After the withdrawal of with the rank of major, despite no evidence of his having received the Wagner Group forces supporting the LAAF from military training at any academy. th southern Tripoli and the subsequent collapse of LAAF 10.