Client Project Team Project Manager Bill Dawson, TTC Project Team Trevor Pitman, TTC Paul Millett, TTC Mike Wehkind, City of Toronto Vince Alfano, City of Toronto HDR Project Team Principal Tyrone Gan, P.Eng - HDR Project Manager Tyrone Gan, P.Eng - HDR Technical Team Karen Freund, P.Eng, PMP, LEED AP,HDR Jonathan Chai, P.Eng HDR Conor Adami, EIT, HDR Carl Wong P.Eng, HDR Melanie Hare, Urban Strategies Craig Lametti, Urban Strategies Peter Norman, Altus Group Quality Control Karen Freund, LEED AP, P.Eng - HDR EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The purpose of the Downtown Rapid Transit Expansion Study (DRTES) is to assess future rapid transit needs based on anticipated growth in Toronto in accordance with the City’s Official Plan, and to identify and assess potential rapid transit improvements into and within the downtown area of Toronto. A. Problem Statement Transit serving the downtown core is reaching the limits of its practical capacity today, and, with the GTAH continuing to grow and develop, the need for improvements to existing transit service is clear. Both Metrolinx (in the Regional Transportation Plan) the City of Toronto and the Toronto Transit Commission (TTC) have identified a number of potential infrastructure, operational and policy improvements to provide additional transit capacity into, and within Downtown Toronto. However, recent studies have identified the need to look at additional opportunities to enhance rapid transit, particularly into the downtown area. Within the downtown core, the existing population of 71,000 is projected to increase by 83% to 130,000 by 2031. During the same period, employment is expected to grow from the current 315,000 to 404,000 (28% increase) by 2031. In addition, the City’s plans call for significant growth in areas immediately adjacent to the downtown core, notably in the Waterfront and the “shoulder” areas east and west of the downtown. Significant growth is also forecast in the remainder of the City and in the Greater Toronto Area. This is expected to further increase demand coming into and out of the Downtown Core. In total, future transit demand into the downtown core is expected to increase by 55% from 155,000 to 236,000 morning peak period trips. To illustrate existing and future 2031 transit capacity deficiencies, forecasts of hourly ridership have been compared to estimated hourly passenger capacity for all transit lines inbound to the downtown core. Table A-1 summarizes existing demand, capacity and deficiencies for rapid transit lines inbound to the downtown core. The Volume/Capacity ratio (V/C) is a ratio of transit demand to transit capacity. A V/C ratio around 1.00 indicates that the transit facility is at capacity. A V/C ratio less than 1.00 indicates demand is less than capacity, while a V/C ratio higher than 1.00 represents a situation where transit demand exceeds capacity. September 2012 i Table A-1: Existing Inbound Peak Hour Rapid Transit Capacity Deficiencies Inbound Inbound Capacity Demand V/C Deficiency (Observed) AM from NORTH University Subway 26,000 19,300 0.74 0 Yonge Subway 26,000 28,400 1.09 2,400 Barrie-Bradford GO 3,200 3,800 1.19 600 Richmond Hill GO 3,200 2,900 0.91 0 Stouffville GO 3,200 4,100 1.28 900 AM from WEST B-D Subway (west of Bathurst) 26,000 21,800 0.84 0 Georgetown GO 6,400 4,700 0.73 0 Milton GO 7,700 7,600 0.99 0 Lakeshore West GO 9,600 13,000 1.35 3,400 AM from EAST B-D Subway (east of Sherbourne) 26,000 25,900 1.00 0 Lakeshore East GO 9,600 12,100 1.26 2,500 TOTALS TOTAL from NORTH 61,600 58,500 0.95 3,900 TOTAL from WEST (Excluding BD) 23,700 25,300 1.07 3,400 TOTAL from EAST (Excluding BD) 9,600 12,100 1.26 2,500 TOTAL Inbound 94,900 95,900 1.01 9,800 Source: TTC and GO count data PHF of 0.55 applied to TTC routes and 0.67 to GO Routes where required As illustrated in the above table, significant inbound transit capacity deficiencies exist today, particularly on the Yonge Subway and on many GO rail lines. Streetcar routes (not shown above) east and west of the downtown are similarly constrained. To address these deficiencies, and to manage growth, the TTC is implementing a range of capacity improvements to the existing rapid transit network over the next several years and this expanded capacity is a critical element in ensuring the continued health and vitality of the downtown area. In addition, there are also significant planned improvements to GO Rail services consistent with Metrolinx’s Regional Transportation Plan. The project team and Metrolinx staff jointly developed a “2031 Reference Network” reflecting the committed and planned rapid transit improvements expected to be implemented by 2031. Even with the currently-planned GO and TTC improvements, the Yonge Subway line and much of the GO Rail network will be at, or over, capacity for trips into the Downtown Toronto area during the peak periods in 2031. The most serious capacity issues are related to long- and medium-distance trips from the east and north, as illustrated in Table A-2. September 2012 ii Table A-2: 2031 Inbound Rapid Transit Capacity Deficiencies Inbound Inbound Capacity Demand V/C (2031 Deficiency (2031 (2031 Reference) (2031 Reference) Reference) Reference) AM from NORTH University Subway 38,000 25,100 0.66 0 Yonge Subway 38,000 35,800 0.94 0 Barrie-Bradford GO 6,400 7,500 1.17 1,100 Richmond Hill GO 4,800 2,500 0.54 0 Stouffville GO 6,400 8,500 1.34 2,100 AM from WEST B-D Subway (west of Bathurst) 33,000 20,100 0.61 0 Georgetown GO 9,600 11,000 1.15 1,400 Milton GO 11,500 12,000 1.04 500 Lakeshore West GO 19,200 13,900 0.72 0 AM from EAST B-D Subway (east of Sherbourne) 33,000 31,400 0.95 0 Lakeshore East GO 14,400 21,200 1.47 6,800 TOTALS TOTAL from NORTH 93,600 79,500 0.85 3,200 TOTAL from WEST (Excluding BD) 40,300 36,900 0.92 1,900 TOTAL from EAST (Excluding BD) 14,400 21,200 1.47 6,800 TOTAL Inbound (Excl. BD) 148,300 137,600 0.93 11,900 Source: 2031 City of Toronto and TTC GTA/Madituc Model PHF of 0.55 applied to TTC routes and 2031 GO routes A more detailed discussion on capacity related issues for the rapid transit network follows. The Yonge Subway will be approaching capacity – Assuming a significant increase in the Yonge Subway capacity with the implementation of Toronto Rocket Cars and Automatic Train Control (ATC) signalling systems, the Yonge Subway Line will still be approaching capacity. Capacity will continue to be constrained south of Bloor-Yonge Station. There will be little spare capacity on the Yonge Subway to accommodate further increases in transit ridership beyond the projections shown in Table A-2. In addition, if transit passengers are unable to ride the Barrie-Bradford and Stouffville GO lines because of inadequate future capacity, some of these riders will want to divert to the Yonge-University Subway line, adding further demand to the line and exacerbating its potential capacity problems. There is an EA approved extension of the Yonge Subway from Finch Avenue to Highway 7 currently in the Metrolinx Move Ontario 2020 plan. Even with the planned improvements, projected demands on the Yonge subway associated with the Yonge Extension scenario will result in ridership exceeding the capacity of the Yonge Subway line. Some GO lines will have insufficient capacity – Many of the GO Rail lines to the downtown will be at capacity, even with improvements currently planned by Metrolinx. September 2012 iii From the north, passenger demand is forecast to exceed the capacities of the Barrie-Bradford and Stouffville GO lines. Ridership on the Lakeshore East GO line is estimated to significantly exceed the future capacity of the line. Although the analysis indicates the Georgetown and Milton GO lines will be over capacity, some of their ridership can be accommodated by the Lakeshore West GO line which will have spare capacity. Bloor-Yonge Station has limited capacity for passenger transfers – Bloor-Yonge station is currently a key transfer point in the subway network. Today, virtually all demand from the east and significant demand from the west on the Bloor-Danforth line destined to the Downtown Core transfers at Bloor-Yonge station, resulting in very large transfer volumes at this station. The situation is exacerbated by full trains on the Yonge Subway resulting in increased dwell times on the station platforms. With the currently-planned rapid transit network and services, by 2031 the critical passenger transfers movements at Bloor-Yonge Station are expected to increase by 45% and will require substantial improvements to be made at Bloor-Yonge Station to increase passenger capacity. TTC Union Station and other downtown subway stations – Although the TTC is implementing improvements to Union (subway) Station, the significant growth in passenger flows at this and other downtown subway stations (such as King Station) may near or exceed station capacities in the future during peak periods. Deteriorating quality of surface transit services – Surface services can provide adequate capacity to accommodate the forecast demand from the “shoulder” areas adjacent to the downtown only if the current quality of service provided on surface routes in mixed traffic can be maintained and improved.