Tunisia's Elections and the Consolidation of Democracy
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MEMO POLICY TUNISIA’S ELECTIONS AND THE CONSOLIDATION OF DEMOCRACY Anthony Dworkin Tunisia is about to hold its first regular parliamentary and SUMMARY By holding parliamentary and presidential presidential elections since a wave of popular protests elections, Tunisia is taking a further step nearly four years ago forced the departure of the country’s towards democracy. If the country’s long-time autocratic leader, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, and transition continues to move forward, it launched the Arab revolutions of 2011. Following the would be a powerful signal that democracy adoption of a new constitution at the beginning of this year, can take root in the Arab world. But Tunisia legislative elections will take place on 26 October, followed will face a series of challenges after the elections. Its politicians will need to form by a presidential election in two rounds in November and a government without falling back into December. At a time when hopes of moving towards political polarisation and find effective solutions to reform and accountable governments elsewhere in the Arab pressing economic and security challenges so world have been dashed, Tunisia is the only country where that Tunisia’s people do not lose confidence the aspirations of the Arab uprisings may yet be fulfilled in in democracy. Beyond that, Tunisia will the near future. need to undertake fundamental reforms to public administration, security forces, and the judiciary, remaking its state in order to Even if Tunisia’s example does not inspire any immediate deliver on the aspirations of the revolution. followers in the region, the consolidation of a successful democracy in the country would be a powerful signal that The EU has an enormous interest in the reform and political pluralism are not doomed to fail in the success of Tunisia’s experiment. At a Arab world. It is therefore in the EU’s interest to do everything time of negative trends across the region, it can to help ensure success in Tunisia. The country has Europe should consider an overhaul of its already overcome a series of difficulties and crises, but in Mediterranean policy to prioritise support for Tunisia. The EU should help to ensure order to consolidate democracy it will need to take two that short-term economic measures do not further steps. In the short term, further instability and hurt Tunisia’s worst-off people and help popular discontent must be avoided by creating a political Tunisia fight terrorism in a more accountable balance after the elections that allows the government to way. Europe should also redouble its efforts tackle pressing economic and security problems. Beyond to promote educational and other exchanges this, the larger challenge of systemic reform will ultimately with Tunisia’s people, provide investment to determine whether Tunisians come to feel that democracy create jobs and improve services, and offer itself as a partner in reform of the state. has delivered the opportunity, dignity, and social justice that the revolution demanded. The elections and beyond instead that it would seek to throw its weight behind a consensus candidate, though no obvious contender for this Tunisia’s first experience of directly elected government role has emerged. after the revolution was turbulent. Elections in late 2011 gave the Islamist Ennahda party the leading position in the The other party that is expected to emerge as a significant country’s constitutional assembly, and it formed a “troika” force in the elections is Nidaa Tounes (Call for Tunisia), government in coalition with two smaller secular centre-left the secular-nationalist party founded in 2012 by former parties, Congress for the Republic (CPR) and Ettakatol. After interim prime minister Beji Caid Essebsi to balance against the assassination of two leftist opposition politicians and Ennahda’s dominance. Nidaa Tounes made a strong initial a broader political crisis last year threatened a breakdown impact, and became the leading force in the “Union for of Tunisia’s transition, and with one eye on the fate of the Tunisia” opposition front. Since then, however, the party has Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Ennahda entered a national been hit by a series of internal divisions. A persistent source dialogue with opposition parties and agreed to hand over of controversy is the influence of figures linked to Ben Ali’s power to a neutral technocratic government in early 2014. RCD party, including its former secretary-general, Mohamed Ghariani. Nidaa Tounes officials justify their links with old As Tunisia’s elections approach, a pressing question is regime officials as a way of bringing in elites with political whether the country will be able to find a distribution experience, and also allowing the party to profit from the of political authority after the vote that is more stable former RCD electoral machine around the country (which and effective than last time. Tunisia’s new constitution might otherwise be taken over by Ennahda).5 There has also establishes a hybrid system in which power is shared between been dissension over the party’s allegedly undemocratic the parliament and president.1 The parliamentary election is internal practices.6 Meanwhile, the Union for Tunisia front more important for Tunisia’s future direction, as the largest crumbled after Nidaa Tounes decided to present its own list TUNISIA’S ELECTIONS AND THE CONSOLIDATION OF DEMOCRACY party in parliament is entitled to name the prime minister of candidates, in a move that an official of a formerly allied and try to form a government that can win majority support party described as motivated by “egocentrism”.7 in the assembly. The president’s powers are largely focused on national security and foreign affairs. Nevertheless, Beyond these two dominant parties, other political groups many Tunisian political parties have given more attention are struggling to achieve any significant influence. The to manoeuvring for position in the presidential elections electoral law under which the parliamentary vote will be than to developing an effective nationwide parliamentary held does not set any national threshold for representation, campaign.2 In Tunisian public debate, the presidential which is seen as encouraging smaller parties to try their elections have so far overshadowed the legislative ones.3 luck rather than banding together into a few larger groups. As in 2011, the electorate is divided into 33 large districts Despite Ennahda’s loss of popularity during its period in (27 in Tunisia, and six abroad) under a list-based system government, many people expect the party to do well in the of proportional representation.8 The election authority parliamentary elections. It may well emerge again as the has registered over 1,300 different lists to compete in the largest group in parliament, even if it fails to match the 37 elections.9 According to some politicians, personal ambition percent share of the vote it received in 2011. Politicians and among the aging generation of political leaders (who see a analysts agree that Ennahda remains the most disciplined final chance to achieve political office in the new democracy) and best organised political party across the country. It has is overcoming more far-sighted vision.10 recruited a more broad-based group of candidates than in the previous election, including a number of influential Against this background, there is significant public members of Tunisia’s business community. From its disenchantment with the political process and the current leader Rachid Ghannouchi down, Ennahda officials have roster of political leaders. Opinion polls suggest a growing consistently emphasised that if the party wins the most seats impatience with the quality of democracy and the results in the new parliament, it will seek to form a broad-based it has achieved so far for the population.11 Among many government that is supported by as much of the political analysts, including activists working to raise political spectrum as possible. “We need unity government to face all awareness in the country, there is concern that turnout the challenges in our troubled region”, Ghannouchi said in a 4 www.ecfr.eu recent interview. After much internal discussion, Ennahda decided not to field a presidential candidate, announcing 5 Author interview with Mohsen Marzouk, 5 June 2014. 6 Asma Ghribi, “Unpleasantly Familiar Faces in Tunisia”, Foreign Policy, 2 October 2014, available at http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2014/10/02/unpleasantly_ familiar_faces_in_tunisia. 7 Author interview with opposition politician, 5 June 2014. 1 For a summary of the distribution of responsibilities in the constitution, see 8 Duncan Pickard, “Electoral Law Brings Tunisia One Step Closer to Completing October 2014 “Comparative analysis between the constitutional processes in Egypt and Tunisia – Transition”, Atlantic Council, 7 May 2014, available at http://www.atlanticcouncil. lessons learnt – overview of the constitutional situation in Libya”, European Parliament, org/blogs/menasource/electoral-law-brings-tunisia-one-step-closer-to-completing- Directorate-General for External Policies, Policy Department, April 2014, pp. 9–11, transition. available at http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/note/join/2014/433840/ 9 Abdul Latif al-Hanachi, “Tunisia’s First Legislative Elections Post-Revolution”, Al EXPO-AFET_NT(2014)433840_EN.pdf. Jazeera Center for Studies, 2 October 2014, available at http://studies.aljazeera.net/en/ 2 Author interviews with politicians and NGO members, June 2014. reports/2014/10/20141027409786296.htm. 3 Author interview with Amine Ghali, 7 October 2014. 10 Author interview with opposition politician, 5 June 2014. ECFR/116 4 Tarek Amara, “Tunisia’s Islamists ready for a coalition with old regime officials”, 11 “IRI Poll: Tunisia’s Democratic Transition at a Crossroads”, the International Reuters, 10 October 2014, available at http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/10/us- Republican Institute, 19 August 2014, available at http://www.iri.org/news-events- 2 tunisia-election-idUSKCN0HZ0TT20141010.