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Verification of the Seecof–23 Summer 2020 Climate Outlook and Seasonal Bulletin for Serbia

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Verification of the Seecof–23 Summer 2020 Climate Outlook and Seasonal Bulletin for Serbia VERIFICATION OF THE SEECOF–23 SUMMER 2020 CLIMATE OUTLOOK AND SEASONAL BULLETIN FOR SERBIA Belgrade, October 2020 Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia Division for Climate Monitoring and Climate Forecast Department of National Center for Climate Change, Climate Model Development and Disaster Risk Assessment web: http://www.hidmet.gov.rs mail: [email protected] Temperature The SEECOF-23 outlook for the summer of 2020 in Serbia indicated warmer than normal temperature in Serbia with 60% probability, relative to the 1981–2010 climatological base period (Figure A). Climatological monitoring showed that the summer of 2020 was warm, with above-normal temperature based on the tercile method, in the northern as well as parts of western, central, southeastern and eastern Serbia, where the outlook for a warm summer was correct. Elsewhere it was in the normal category (Figure B). OUTLOOK – SUMMER 2020 MONITORING – SUMMER 2020 Figure A. SEECOF-23 - summer temperature outlook Figure B. Monitoring of the 2020 summer temperature using tercile method compared to the 1981-2010 base period 1 Precipitation The SEECOF–23 climate outlook for the summer of 2020 indicated dry conditions in Serbia with the probability of 50%, relative to the 1981–2010 climatological base period (Figure C). Monitoring of precipitation showed above the average totals, based on the tercile method, across almost the entire country apart from Sremska Mitrovica where it was normal and in Kikinda where it was below the average (Figure D). The outlook was not correct for the greater part of Serbia. OUTLOOK – SUMMER 2020 MONITORING – SUMMER 2020 Figure C. SEECOF-23 - summer precipitation outlook Figure D. Monitoring of the 2020 summer precipitation using tercile method relative to the 1981-2010 base period 2 Summer 2020 Air Temperature (°C) Station Observed Rank* Rank** 33 50 66 value Beograd 22 16 21.6 22.0 22.9 23.2 (1888-2020) Palić 19 16 20.9 21.3 21.9 22.1 (1945-2020) Sombor 16 13 20.6 21.0 21.3 21.9 (1942-2020) Novi Sad 15 12 20.8 21.0 21.6 22.1 (1948-2020) Zrenjanin 17 13 21.0 21.2 21.7 22.4 (1946-2020) Kikinda 13 11 20.8 21.3 21.7 22.6 (1948-2019) Banatski Karlovac 19 19 20.9 21.3 21.8 21.6 (1986-2020) Loznica 16 15 20.7 21.0 21.7 21.8 (1952-2020) Sremska Mitrovica 28 16 20.5 20.8 21.2 21.6 (1925-2020) Valjevo 23 16 20.5 20.9 21.6 21.8 (1926-2020) Kragujevac 33 20 20.6 21.2 21.6 21.5 (1925-2020) Smederevska Palanka 27 21 20.8 21.3 21.8 21.7 (1939-2020) Veliko Gradište 24 16 20.4 21.1 21.4 21.8 (1926-2020) Crni Vrh 23 23 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.4 (1967-2020) Negotin 20 15 22.0 22.7 23.1 23.4 (1927-2020) Zlatibor 27 22 16.3 16.8 17.3 16.9 (1950-2020) Sjenica 30 24 15.3 15.9 16.2 15.9 (1946-2020) Pozega 22 18 18.9 19.4 19.5 19.6 (1952-2020) Kraljevo 32 20 20.6 21.0 21.5 21.3 (1926-2020) Kopaonik 25 21 11.5 12.1 12.5 12.4 (1950-2020) Kursumlija 27 22 19.0 19.4 19.9 19.6 (1952-2020) Krusevac 40 24 20.7 21.1 21.5 21.0 (1927-2020) 3 Cuprija 14 11 20.3 21.0 21.3 21.8 (1948-2020) Nis 47 26 21.2 21.9 22.2 21.5 (1925-2020) Leskovac 34 24 20.4 20.9 21.1 20.9 (1948-2020) Zajecar 44 27 20.9 21.8 22.0 21.0 (1929-2020) Dimitrovgrad 25 17 18.8 19.4 19.7 19.9 (1945-2020) Vranje 50 28 20.3 21.1 21.3 20.8 (1926-2020) *Rank – period of stations work (warmest season) **Rank – 1981-2020 period (warmest season) Summer 2020 Precipitation sums (mm) Station Observed Rank* Rank** 33 50 66 Value Beograd 21 7 169.3 222.8 264.1 (1888-2020) 285.8 Palić 14 8 161.4 197.6 219.0 (1945-2020) 253.2 Sombor 16 8 180.2 187.8 215.1 (1942-2020) 257.5 Novi Sad 3 3 174.5 187.8 236.8 (1948-2020) 376.7 Zrenjanin 15 8 155.3 175.6 222.8 (1946-2020) 259.9 Kikinda 66 29 152.4 174.9 205.7 (1948-2020) 137.3 Banatski Karlovac 16 8 146.6 198.6 246.0 281.3 (1946-2020) Loznica 13 6 237.8 256.5 309.0 (1926-2020) 375.6 Sremska Mitrovica 35 13 173.9 189.4 226.1 218.3 (1925-2020) Valjevo 25 13 214.0 233.9 286.7 (1926-2020) 294.8 Kragujevac 7 2 154.8 195.4 230.6 (1925-2020) 328.5 Smederevska Palanka 5 3 168.2 201.5 231.6 341.1 (1939-2020) Veliko Gradište 25 13 129.4 173.9 238.6 (1926-2020) 262.2 4 Crni Vrh 20 11 169.4 196.9 249.3 (1967-2020) 282.3 Negotin 16 9 105.8 138.2 188.9 (1927-2020) 211.8 Zlatibor 6 4 230.7 288.4 313.0 (1950-2020) 466.3 Sjenica 2 1 191.2 213.6 229.3 (1946-2020) 452.3 Pozega 6 2 178.0 218.5 238.1 (1952-2020) 376.2 Kraljevo 6 2 209.6 244.4 272.7 (1926-2020) 392.7 Kopaonik 1 1 224.1 279.6 323.8 (1950-2020) 533.8 Kursumlija 5 4 129.2 175.7 208.0 (1952-2020) 308.0 Krusevac 2 1 137.0 172.5 209.9 (1927-2020) 392.6 Cuprija 27 12 143.8 185.8 204.9 (1948-2020) 209.7 Nis 1 1 125.9 150.2 178.7 (1925-2020) 344.2 Leskovac 2 1 126.2 150.3 179.6 (1948-2020) 283.5 Zajecar 4 1 115.7 156.2 172.8 350.8 (1929-2020) Dimitrovgrad 23 10 150.2 175.7 203.5 (1945-2020) 235.2 Vranje 14 7 112.0 144.3 179.9 (1926-2020) 235.2 *Rank – period of stations work (highest seasonal precipitation) **Rank – 1981-2020 period (highest seasonal precipitation) 5 Seasonal temperature Seasonal precipitation JJA JJA Country SEECOF-23 climate SEECOF-23 climate outlook High Impact Events Observed outlook for Observed for precipitation temperature * Summer 2020 The 2nd wettest summer for Serbia in the last 70 years. The wettest summer for Nis and Kopaonik, 2nd wettest for Sjenica, Krusevac and Leskovac. Record-breaking daily precipitation sums for Kopaonik and Sjenica. Record- breaking number of days in Above-normal Above Below-normal Above summer with the precipitation Serbia (10, 30, 60) normal in (50, 30 20) normal / sums above 20 mm in Sjenica (1) almost entire Normal and Nis, and above 50 mm in in entire Serbia Serbia in entire Serbia Kraljevo and Kopaonik. * June Record-breaking daily precipitation sums in Kragujevac on June 11 and in Nis on June 16. Maximum number of days with precipitation above 20 mm exceeded at Zlatibor. * August Wettest August in Sjenica since record-keeping began. 6 SEASONAL BULLETIN FOR SERBIA - SUMMER 2020 2nd wettest summer for Serbia in the last 70 years. Summer air temperature slightly above the average. The wettest summer for Nis and Kopaonik, 2nd wettest for Sjenica, Krusevac and Leskovac. Record-breaking daily precipitation sums for Kopaonik and Sjenica. Record-breaking number of days in summer with the precipitation sums above 20 mm in Sjenica and Nis, and above 50 mm in Kraljevo and Kopaonik. Analysis of the 2020 summer season for Serbia relative to the 1981-2010 base period Temperature Mean summer air temperature ranged from 19.6ºC in Kursumlija and Pozega to 23.4ºC in Negotin, and on the mountains from 12.4ºC at Kopaonik to 16.9ºC at Zlatibor (Figure 1). Departure of the mean summer air temperature from the normal1 ranged from -0.5ºC in Zajecar to +1.2ºC in Kikinda, and in the upland from +0.1ºC at Zlatibor and Sjenica to +0.2ºC at Kopaonik (Figure 2). Figure 1. Spatial distribution of mean sasonal air Figure 2. Spatial distribution of mean sasonal air temperature temperature anomaly from the normal 1 Term normal refers to climatological standard normal, that is, the average value of a particular climate event, calculated for the period from January1, 1981 to December 31, 2010 7 Based on the percentile method2, mean summer air temperature was in the warm category in the northern, as well as parts of western, central and eastern Serbia. Elsewhere it was in the normal category (Figure 3). Based on the tercile method, mean summer air temperature was in the warm category in the northern as well as parts of western, central, southeastern and eastern Serbia. Elsewhere it was in the normal category (Figure 4). Figure 3. Spatial distribution of mean seasonal air Figure 4. Spatial distribution of mean seasonal air temperature according to the percentile temperature according to the tercile method method Summer 2020 ranks as the 23rd warmest summer for Serbia in the record-keeping period from 1951 to 2020. The summer of 2012 was the warmest on record. The fifteen warmest summer seasons were registered in the last 20 years since 2000. In the summer of 2020, the highest daily air temperature of 36.9ºC was recorded in Cuprija on August 31.
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